ok so i've been following this thread for awhile - this might just be a noob question - but is there any reason why a discussion of character match-ups should be anything BUT what happens "on paper"? shouldn't it be about, all things equal, what options either character has against the other, and the ability of either character to counter or simply shut down the other's options? seems like talking about an individual player's ability or knowledge of a match-up should be left out of it.
trying to come up with a theoretical representation that encompasses all practical (i.e. random) outcomes, especially among higher tiered characters, seems unnecessarily difficult at best. they seem to end up in an "even" or "slight advantage" match-up, which seems more of a reflection of the outcomes at a professional level of play (see: any top level pros going even in matches, or playing specifically from experience against a certain player) than the actual character-to-character match-up. isn't that what the tier list is for?
anyway i don't mean to derail the discussion at hand - just a question.