your predictions for EVO 2013

[LLDL]

I think think only 2 of the top 4 are going to place in the top 4.

 

[Rocketpowerchill]

after watching the westballz ken set
anything is valid
things are not as they seem

 

[Steelia]

>Melee Grand Finals
>Lights fade out
>Hype begins
>Ceiling opens
>There's a big *** helicopter in the sky
>[Hype Intensifies]
>Somebody is slowly descending from the heli
>It's Armada
>Hype reaches critical mass levels
>Generates enough energy to power the entirety of Vegas for years
>Energy radiates around Vegas
>City explodes, no survivors
>Sakurai releases Smash 4 hours later
>Pichu for top tier

By jove.
This just may happen.
http://smashboards.com/threads/one-last-chance.337866/

Pichu for top tier.

 

[Blistering Speed]

Predictions have become redundant once again, Armada will win. I know it, you know it, and the old couple across the street knows it.

 

[KrIsP!]

Now that we know who's entered I'll say
1. Mango
2. Armada
3. Hbox
4. M2K
5. PP/PPU
7. Hax/ wobbles

I think the new character counter pick rules are going to come into play heavily for the top 4 and I'm hoping mango abuses this by throwing puff into the mix. He needs to practice it though or else I'd give it right back to armada. It's a tie breaker for gen 1 and 2.

 

[Djent]

The fact that Shroomed, Armada, and Dr. Peepee are all in the same 8th of winners' bracket should factor heavily into everyone's predictions. I had all 3 of these guys in my top 8, but now that I've seen the brackets I have to make adjustments.

Shroomed and Armada will (likely) face off in pools, and even if they don't only one can make it out in winners'. IIRC he's done well against Armada in the past - I think the chances of a Doc victory are slim but nontrivial. Dr. Peepee is dying for a Marth-Peach rematch, and could just as easily take it as Armada. Even if Armada makes it through these 3, he could still end up facing Hax in quarterfinals. I think Hax has a better chance vs. Armada than either Peepee (no chance) or Shroomed (knows the matchup very well, but could still lose).

If Shroomed or Armada end up inheriting Peepee's spot in winners' quarterfinals, Hax could make Top 8 winners' side. This is assuming he doesn't choke early in winners (like he's prone to doing). If Peepee takes out Shroomed/Armada he's virtually guaranteed top 5. Armada has a horrible hell-bracket ahead of him. I predict that he will win the tournament if he can make it to winners' semis. If not, we will see a new champion crowned.

 

[Theftz22]

^...what??

I thought Javi was going to EVO, anybody see him in pools?

 

[ZetTroxX]

http://evo2013.s3.amazonaws.com/brackets/ssbm_d64.html

There´s that swedish Fox player no one has talked about yet...

Oh wow - Jman is in there too. Daaaamn

 

[Metà]

1. Armada
2. Mango
3. PP
4. hbox
5. PPU
5. M2K

 

[Battlecow]

really rooting for Jman over leffen

Armada faces PP in WQ? that's rough.

 

[Juggleguy]

No, Armada faces PP for the rights to just be in WQ, lol.

 

[Djent]

I've basically figured out what I think will happen in winners' bracket. Now I need to check losers' more carefully to finalize my predictions.

 

[luzbwl]

Can someone figure out when the big 5 will face acording to the final pools released? Is there a chance any of them wont make it to top 8?

 

[Jayk]

Armada and PP face really early.

 

[Djent]

Projected WSF are M2K vs. HBox and Mango vs. Peepee/Armada.

 

[luzbwl]

That means that we might get hbox vs armada rematch as winners finals! coool

 

[ZetTroxX]

Everyone of the Top 5 needs a small hype vid like this <3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRLospsK9bw&feature=youtu.be

 

[Metà]

so, I've had some time to re-create all the brackets in Tio, and play out my predictions

based on what I've seen so far, and my MASSIVE BIASES, my predicted results for top 8 are....

1) Armada
2) Mang0
3) Hungrybox
4) Dr. PP
5) Axe
5) Mew2King
7) Hax
7) Wobbles

 

[RoxburyGuy58]

I got dat Hbox bias

 

[chenjesu]

mew2king's still going to win

the fact that armada is in the tournament just makes it easier for him, since mew2king is the only one with a chance at taking him out imo.

 

[smashmachine]

mew2king's still going to win

the fact that armada is in the tournament just makes it easier for him, since mew2king is the only one with a chance at taking him out imo.

what about PP's marth
Hbox to time out Armada 3 times for a 3-2 win like PR Rog at CEO

 

[Oohwakamuu]

I was wondering if people here were aware that top 8 participants are shuffled around by draw one last time. Winners gets shuffled with each other and so does Losers. Are your predictions taking this into account?

I can't find an official rule confirming this, but I have two videos of commentary that speak about the issue.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIM2Odhav_k

Flash Metroid vs. Tokido Top 8 Evo 2011. At 12 seconds into the video, Seth Killian metions that Flash got unlucky with his draw. Zangief does better against Yun as opposed to Akuma.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh1fzwJeaEI

Justin Wong vs. Gamerbee. Top 8 Evo 2010. The most solid evidence. At 19 seconds, Seth literally says Justin is probably very disappointed in the draw. Justin would have rather faced one of the other weaker players in Losers Bracket.

 

[KrIsP!]

Did not know that, does that really happen? Kind of weird tbh lol don't know what that means, I guess hbox would be pissed cause he's in winners finals easy if m2k hasn't learned the puff match up, having to face armada instead would be hell for him.

At the end of the day, no johns.

 

[t3h Icy]

Uhh, pretty sure that's just a term for who you end up facing in bracket, not weird shuffling or anything.

 

[ycz12]

I don't think those two videos support your claim at all. It seems to me like they're just talking about the way the bracket panned out.

Given that the Evo bracket website explicitly spells out which matches in semis lead to which spots in finals, it seems unlikely that they get shuffled around at all.

 

[strawhats]

That means that we might get hbox vs armada rematch as winners finals! coool

either PPU/Leffen/M2k/Ice would have to beat Hbox in order for that to happen unless PP/Mango take out Armada before this which is more likely to happen.

 

[Djent]

Pretty sure their bracket generation is partially random (taking into account region and seeding points, of course). So the "draw" analogy is accurate (though not literal).

 

[smashmachine]

either PPU/Leffen/M2k/Ice would have to beat Hbox in order for that to happen unless PP/Mango take out Armada before this which is more likely to happen.

but what if m2k pulls out his pocket Young Link at evo

 

[Stratocaster]

Top 32 (... +2)
Done by a full bracket, from picking 1st and 2nd place of each pool then going through match-by-match. It reveals a lot of my ignorance about mid-level players and my bias. It should also be noted that it is heavily influenced by the way the bracket actually plays out, and is not a ranking. There are so many close match-ups obviously, so this was really difficult. I'll explain how some things turn out the way they do below the list.

1. Armada
2. Mew2king
3. Mango
4. Pewpewu
5. Hax
5. Hungrybox
7. Dr Peepee
7. Shroomed
9. Axe
9. Silent Wolf
9. Darkrain
9. Dashizwiz
13. Bladewise
13. S2j
13. Leffen
13. Silentspectre
17. Wobbles
17. Jman
17. Fly Amanita
17. Android
17. Lucky
17. Taj
17. Westballz
17. Ice
25. Toph
25. I.B.
25. Hugs
25. Lovage
25. sfat
25. Wizzrobe
25. StricNYN3
25. E. Yahuhzz
33. Scar
33. Ken

Starting from the bottom about specific players and scenarios:
-Ken I feel I gave the benefit of the doubt against Zhu, then he runs into Silentspectre and Dashizwiz immediately after in losers, and I just don't see it.
-Scar runs into S2j early, then Android with, you know - Sheik
-Hugs, to be perfectly honest, I didn't even have him winning his pool but he ends up with a really easy stretch. Ken or Vectorman could also wind up in this position.
-Android I have a lot of confidence in him winning his pool, but then he faces PP, even with a good showing in Losers he soon has to face either PP again or his brother (please no). Here he loses to PP twice.
-Wobbles and Fly, despite having Wobbling legal, don't fair too terribly well... because Peach. Wobbles will likely have to play Shroomed, whom he has never beaten, then with the way Losers played out he plays Bladewise. Fly, meanwhile likely lands a match-up with Armada in Winners, I have him losing to S2j in Losers.
-Bladewise I find has a mostly easy path if it weren't for Axe, who beats him twice.
-Dashizwiz I have losing to Silent Wolf, then destroying Losers with Kels, Ken, StricNYN, Westballz, and Silentspectre until finally falling to Armada. I can see a lot of different scenerios there.
-Darkrain lands a very likely post-pool match-up with HBox, but his path through Losers seemed pretty bare to me.
-Axe vs Mango is as early on as PP vs Armada. He's destined to find trouble in Losers with HBox, Pewpewu, PP or Armada all likely opponents. He lost to HBox in this scenario.
-PP's early exit is Armada then HBox. He is still a candidate to win it all though.
-HBox gets upset by Pewpewu... twice. Lol, they played really close sets not long ago, and I can see PPU coming out on top this time.
-Hax upsets Armada to get where he does, but ultimately can't beat Mango, and loses to the adaptable Armada in Losers. I have a lot of faith in Hax to do well, but Mango, PP, M2K in particular I can't really see him beating just due to Falcon's really uphill match-ups combined with those players abilities.
-PPU handles Hbox this time, but falls to M2K and Armada
-Mango gets beat by M2K and Armada
-Armada and M2K meet for Grand Finals, and Armada comes out on top of the two sets.

A lot of these predictions seem kinda crazy, but something crazy happening is the most certain thing of all.

 

[t3h Icy]

Shroomed lost to Wobbles the last time they played at KoC2.

 

[Juggleguy]

Not gonna lie, I stopped reading when you predicted Ken over Zhu, lol.

 

[LLDL]

StricNYN6

looooooool

 

[Stratocaster]

Shroomed lost to Wobbles the last time they played at KoC2.

You know what? I specifically looked up that match-up because I was thinking Wobbles over Shroomed, but I saw the match in Winners and Wobbles celebrates when he wins one game, with the commentator saying that was his first game he'd ever won against him. I didn't see that they meet again in Loser's and Wobbles wins. I didn't see that and I'm probably going to switch it back the way I had it originally in light of that.

Not gonna lie, I stopped reading when you predicted Ken over Zhu, lol.

Cool, cool. This is just for fun after all, but I just wanna say I specifically said that was an unlikely prediction, or at least that was what I was trying to say. If you're gonna be upset over that, it probably gets worse, lol. If I'm being really honest, I have my doubts that Ken even gets to Zhu and loses to V3ctorman.

Oh and the 6 in StricNYN6 is happened because I did it in Excel and dragged his name over, and Excel automatically adds 1. Then copy and paste, I'll fix it.

 

[Metà]

Here's my (vastly superior) predictions, after I did the same thing, and meditated on it for a while

1. Armada
2. Mang0
3. Hungrybox
4. Dr. PP
5. Wobbles
5. Mew2King
7. Axe
7. Zhu
9. PewPewU
9. Westballz
9. SFAT
9. Hax
13. Shroomed
13. Fly Amanita
13. Leffen
13. Silent Wolf
17. Blunted_object10
17. Ice
17. Darkrain
17. Taj
17. Chad
17. S2J
17. I.b
17. Bladewise
25. Zoso
25. Duck
25. Tai
25. Darrell
25. Kou
25. Eddy Mexico
25. Jman
25. Fuzzyness

things to note:
-nearly every Marth at the tournament got lumped into I61 somehow. G$, Taj, Tai, TheMoon, D1, PewPewU, and Dart! lots of Marth dittos, but only Taj and PewPewU break into top 32 (and of course the other Marths from other pools, like I.b and Ice)
-Darkrain manages to take out Sung and Tai in very close sets, but gets crushed by SFAT
-Bladewise gets sent to loser's, where he takes out Fuzzyness and loses to Shroomed
-I.b upsets Jman in loser's, but then loses pretty hard to Axe
-Chad goes to loser's bracket and takes out DEHF and Kou (who foolishly takes Chad to FD), but loses to Armada
-Armada is in loser's because he lost to PP's Marth. but don't worry! he blazes through the loser's bracket taking out Fly Amanita, Westballz, Axe, Mew2king (!!!!!), and then finally downloads PP's Marth and takes him out in a close-fought set. Armada beats Hbox in a war of attrition that takes over half an hour, and then goes on to decimate Mang0 in the first set of grand finals. The second set goes to final game after Mang0 gets the crowd on his side, but ultimately loses to the beast from Sweden
-Leffen gets a free ride to quarters of I61, taking out only Tai, but gets slaughtered by PewPewU. He then goes to loser's, where he defeats Taj and then loses to SFAT in Fox dittos
-Hax and S2J face off in the manliest of Falcon dittos, but Hax takes the upper-hand and sends S2J to loser's where he loses to Fly Amanita
-Blunted_object makes a deadly appearance in loser's bracket, taking out Stricnyn3, Smashmac, and Duck back to back, but gets taken out by Silent Wolf to take 17th place
-Ice loses to Silent Wolf early in the bracket, but then goes to loser's where he defeats Zoso and loses to Zhu
-Westballz beats Silent Wolf 2-1 and goes on to face Mew2king, who chaingrabs and gimps him to no end. Westballz then gets 3 and 4-stocked by Armada in loser's to take 9th place
-Zhu beats Hax in a very close set, but loses to Wobbles in a not very close set
-Ken barely makes it out of pools and loses to Hugs (epic throwback set)

 

[Stratocaster]

Meta I like your list (though I could do without the rude "vastly superior" comment). It was a nice read, and I didn't realize things such as how many marths were in I61. I also appreciate some of the names you bring up on the lower portion of the list. Several of the names you bring up, particularly in the 25 section, I don't know a whole lot about (Zoso, Tai, Darrell), I overlooked (blunted, Duck, Kou), or just missed my list (Fuzzyness, Jman, Chad, Eddy). I want to learn more about some of those players, re-look over my list, and make some changes. One thing that really does need to change is Zhu's placement. The loss to Ken really is unrealistic even if Ken cares enough to really try. I already see that I hate what that could do for Silentspectre, who would be matched up against Zhu and then likely Dashizwiz/Silent Wolf. I like the feedback, and it helps me learn a lot more than a simple "haha, you're a fool cause of this or that detail." Predicting 100+ matches (after first deciding who is 1 and 2 in each pool) is really hard and time consuming.

 

[KrIsP!]

Lol I loved reading the in-depth match ups from meta, helped me play out my own bracket, my final prediction now is

1. Mango
2. Hungry box
3. Armada
4. Mew2King
5. PP
5. Wobbles
7. PewpewU
7. Hax
9. Zhu
9. Leffen
9. Silent wolf
9. Axe

 

[Metà]

yeah i'm sorry stratocaster, i didn't mean to denigrade your list, it's just that there was a lot missing.

also, good list krisp. I'll admit I'm an Armada fanboy, and I actually do think that Hbox has a very good chance of beating him. I wouldn't put money on my list, just made it for fun and to see what my potential match-ups will be (and my friends' brackets)

 

[Djent]

HBox could beat Armada, but he needs to go Puff. None of this Ness BS, just tough out the bad matchup like Apex 2012 GF1.

 

[KrIsP!]

yeah i'm sorry stratocaster, i didn't mean to denigrade your list, it's just that there was a lot missing.

also, good list krisp. I'll admit I'm an Armada fanboy, and I actually do think that Hbox has a very good chance of beating him. I wouldn't put money on my list, just made it for fun and to see what my potential match-ups will be (and my friends' brackets)

I'm more of a puff fanboy lol, I'm expecting mango to pull it out and have to many characters for armada to handle and I think hbox might be able to steer clear of armada if he can beat mango in winners finals. All speculation of course. I'm really just not sure about pp lately; had him as my pick for apex and he did good, but he hasn't been playing much and showed it at zenith. he'll either surprise us or get blown up. He's got the hardest bracket for having less points than hax or ppu.

Tbh I think your top 5 is more likely than mine.

 

[Blistering Speed]

really just not sure about pp lately; had him as my pick for apex and he did good, but he hasn't been playing much and showed it at zenith.

Lol, Kevin's been literally paying people to come to his region to play him. He practices so hard, y'all don't even know.

Smashboards is so fickle. One sub par tournament performance and you're in no-one's top three prediction.