your predictions for EVO 2013

[Djent]

TBH the whole facing Armada in W8ths thing factors into it too. In order to get into the top 4, he'll have to beat either Mango or Armada at least once. And if he beats Armada in winners' 8ths, then loses to Mango/Armada later on, he still doesn't place! None of the other top seeds have to go through anything like that.

I agree with you in principle, however. I've noticed it for some time in a lot of fighting game forums (though Smashers are particularly bad). People only remember the last 1 or 2 majors. Nevermind that the results from majors almost never repeat exactly (and so you'd be wise to not predict repeat placings) - just dickride the recent winners.

 

[Engo]

And Ken being unsurprisingly bad after 5 years without playing means he's gonna do well at EVO.

I feel like the fact that Armada only decided to go to EVO 3 weeks beforehand might hurt his chances. He seems like the type of player that will take many months to get ready and be in absolute top shape. If it wasn't for this I'd put money on Armada taking it. If not him I'd love to see PP win it. Motivated and determined Mango is gonna be a lot of fun to watch but I don't want him to win.

 

[LKratos]

And Ken being unsurprisingly bad after 5 years without playing means he's gonna do well at EVO.

I feel like the fact that Armada only decided to go to EVO 3 weeks beforehand might hurt his chances. He seems like the type of player that will take many months to get ready and be in absolute top shape. If it wasn't for this I'd put money on Armada taking it. If not him I'd love to see PP win it. Motivated and determined Mango is gonna be a lot of fun to watch but I don't want him to win.

I would agree if Armada mained a character like Fox/Falco. The reason I disagree is because so much of his skill comes from innate knowledge of matchups, spacing, and mind games. I think 3 weeks is plenty of time to practice and get back up to speed with a character that simply doesn't have the tech-skill requirements that other high tier characters do.

 

[t3h Icy]

I just noticed that in Losers' Bracket of QFs, there are Byes placed ahead of each other. For example, in I57 slot Q52, the first opponent is a Bye, and then the next match is against the loser of Section F....which is also a Bye...

Yet in slots Q48/Q50, they have to play each other, then face the loser of Section E, which is not a Bye.

So some people in Losers' QFs will be either facing 2 opponents (1 that started in Winners', 1 that started in Losers'), and other people will get a free ride to the same spot. This is occurring in every QFs pool with every Bye.

In total, there are literally 18 Byes that are outplacing actual players. So if you find yourself finishing 2nd in your Pool, don't sweat it! You have slightly over a 50/50 chance (some pools have more Byes) that you'll be guaranteed 49th! If you're unlucky however, well you're only guaranteed 97th, but you'll get to be glorious 49th if you can defeat two people.

Man, that would be awful to make it to top 92 and place 97th, rofl.

 

[Metà]

yeah, their bracket system is messed up

 

[Battlecow]

1. PP (god two 2/3 sets between him-mango-AR; anyone could come out of that cluster**** on top)
2. Mango
3. Hbox
4. M2k
5. Armada (rough that to get top 4 he has to beat pp or mango)
5. Robbles
7. Shroomed
7. Pewpewu

 

[Juggleguy]

I just noticed that in Losers' Bracket of QFs, there are Byes placed ahead of each other. For example, in I57 slot Q52, the first opponent is a Bye, and then the next match is against the loser of Section F....which is also a Bye...

Yet in slots Q48/Q50, they have to play each other, then face the loser of Section E, which is not a Bye.

So some people in Losers' QFs will be either facing 2 opponents (1 that started in Winners', 1 that started in Losers'), and other people will get a free ride to the same spot. This is occurring in every QFs pool with every Bye.

In total, there are literally 18 Byes that are outplacing actual players. So if you find yourself finishing 2nd in your Pool, don't sweat it! You have slightly over a 50/50 chance (some pools have more Byes) that you'll be guaranteed 49th! If you're unlucky however, well you're only guaranteed 97th, but you'll get to be glorious 49th if you can defeat two people.

Man, that would be awful to make it to top 92 and place 97th, rofl.

Liked this post because you made some great observations.

Disliked this post because... dumb EVO format is dumb.

 

[Krynxe]

Well it's hard to make such calls with our top players when they're all so great

I think PP will do great, and I also think people are giving Hbox a little bit too much credit. (but only a little bit.) He struggles vs PP, Mango, and Armada as evident from recent results, and I think as the meta-game evolves, Puff becomes less and less viable at top level due to her skill ceiling/capabilities cap out much much earlier than other high tier characters. I believe this will be evident in the results, however Hbox is a fantastic player and will still persevere into the money.

 

[Djent]

I think that HBox is pretty much going to place 3rd (unless he loses to PPU). I see him beating M2K, losing to whomever comes out of PP/Mango/Armada, and losing LF unless M2K somehow beats one of those other 3 in LSF.

 

[KrIsP!]

I'm hardly dickriding when I had pp as my pick to take apex and its less about one sub par performance and more about the others going to all sorts of tournaments besides zenith and showing off new stuff. He does have the hardest bracket, m2k and hbox on the ther side he has to face off against armada early on.

I might be willing to move him up to fourth cause m2k is already starting to John and says he wants to retire, hardly expect him to take pp anymore when I thought m2k was looking good for this tournament.

 

[clowsui]

I would agree if Armada mained a character like Fox/Falco. The reason I disagree is because so much of his skill comes from innate knowledge of matchups, spacing, and mind games. I think 3 weeks is plenty of time to practice and get back up to speed with a character that simply doesn't have the tech-skill requirements that other high tier characters do.

Is this for real? Why is there such a spacies bias always lmao. Marth, peach, sheik, falcon etc all require technical consistency in their own right. Yeah spacies have the highest APM and also require strong reactions but let's not pretend like it's easy for non-spacies mains to relearn punishment timings, remember how/when to trade, etc.

 

[strawhats]

@Meta: S2J losing to Fly amanita....doubt it. S2J's head to head record vs ICs in general after beat Wobbles in WSFs and LFs at an AZ tournament is pretty damn good and he pretty much beats Fly every time they've played in the last 1.5/2 yrs, whenever they do play.
PPU could take Hbox out of winners if he gets by leffen, as for hbox being able to beat armada with Puff...not sure about this anymore. M2K has a peach to deal with ICs if need be now, and Ice doesn't main marth anymore and would use sheik vs SW (SW loves fighting marth, but sheik is a different story and Ice is a lot better than he was at Apex 2012/13). PP/Mango/M2k/Armada will all be a tough out. Hbox may be the most vulnerable if he runs into someone like Wobbles/Fly (almost lost to Nintendude at Zenith 2013, and has had a historically tough time dealing with ICs). If Hbox and m2k play each other, well it favors hbox but I'm not counting m2k out.
@Krisp: when does m2k not talk about retirement. lol typical Jason.

 

[Osennecho]

You know strawhats, even if PPU didn't make it past Leffen, Leffen is skilled enough to be a potential threat to Hbox. Tbh I'd say Leffen and PPU would have about the same chance at winning that matchup. Not a large chance, but a chance. And blahhhh I don't want Hbox to lose to anyone except M2K >_> And I wonder how many plausible scenarios could lead to M2K fighting Armada. Its been over 3 years now I think =.=.... I want to see a ******* set between them.

 

[DeLaTe37]

You guys should not underestimate ice. probably not top 4 but I think he has a good chance placing very well

 

[Djent]

I wasn't accusing you (Kr1sp) of dickriding, actually - I'm sorry if I gave that impression. Rather, I intended to convey that it's something I've observed from various people in topics similar to this one. And I agree about PP's bracket being hard, though I'm not too concerned about his tournament attendance.

Anyway, I think I've finalized my top 8 (and am gonna do top 16 for the hell of it). I'm also doing a few more specific predictions about how the big matchups will go:

1) Mango
2) Dr. PP
3) HBox
4) M2K
5) Armada
5) Shroomed
7) Wobbles
7) Zhu
-----Finals Cutoff-----
9) PPU
9) Ice
9) SFAT
9) Hax
13) Axe
13) S2J
13) Taj
13) Shiz
-----Semis Cutoff-----

If I understand the brackets correctly, Hax will likely have to face the winner of Shiz/Zhu in losers'. My money's on Zhu, who will beat Shiz in an epic Genesis 1 runback. Since Hax's record in that matchup is terrible, I think we'll be seeing a Falconless Top 8 (unless Mango picks him). I predict that Peepee will take out Armada in W8ths using Marth. I think Wobbles will lose to Shroomed, then narrowly defeat Bladewise to qualify in semis. Fly Amanita will not be so fortunate, having to fight Armada early and losing to S2J for 17th. I think PewPewU will lose 1-2 to both HBox and Wobbles.

As far as the top seeds go, I think PeePee will beat Armada in their first set, but then lose to Mango in Semis. Mew2King will lose to Hungrybox, leading to a long-awaited rematch vs. Armada in LQF. With the entire ballroom cheering for him, he'll finally pull it out and send the beast packing. This won't stop him from losing to PP/Mango in LSF. I'm giving the edge to Mango for taking the tournament, since he has a positive set record vs. HBox and PP. HBox will probably lose 2 close sets, PP will reset, but then lose GF2.

 

[Jayk]

Wouldn't Leffen have a better chance against Hbox?
He took Hbox to last stock last hit, whereas PPU got 3-0ed...

 

[Djent]

He would, but I don't think he's going to beat PPU.
PPU lost 3 very close games to HBox - he has a chance.

 

[KrIsP!]

I wasn't accusin you of accusing me dj3nt.

I was responding to the accusations of blistering speed lol

Edit: nvm it was you, whatever lol

 

[Battlecow]

Lol, Kevin's been literally paying people to come to his region to play him. He practices so hard, y'all don't even know.

Smashboards is so fickle. One sub par tournament performance and you're in no-one's top three prediction.

Who has he been doing this with?

That's super cool.

 

[strawhats]

You know strawhats, even if PPU didn't make it past Leffen, Leffen is skilled enough to be a potential threat to Hbox. Tbh I'd say Leffen and PPU would have about the same chance at winning that matchup. Not a large chance, but a chance. And blahhhh I don't want Hbox to lose to anyone except M2K >_> And I wonder how many plausible scenarios could lead to M2K fighting Armada. Its been over 3 years now I think =.=.... I want to see a ******* set between them.

Oh definitely, Leffen has a really good chance of beating hbox, and almost had hbox in the winners bracket at Apex 2013. After his set, leffen came and sat down next to me. i could immediately see his frustration. In fact i'd say Leffen probably has better chance of beating Hbox then PPU, but I love K.Toy's marth and wanna see him do well.

 

[Engo]

According to Leffen he's not actually gonna be playing. I don't think he's fooling anyone though.

I hope he's been practicing since getting banned.

 

[-Chad-]

Me having to play Ice in the immediate first round is going to affect our results quite a bit

 

[FourStar]

i'm calling it now. axe tied for 7th

 

[metaknighter]

Honestly would love to see Shroomed win, but I think it's a tie between M2k, Dr.PP, or Armada. Anything can happen, and I just wanna see legendary matches.

 

[MajorMoses]

1.) Hax
2.) Shroomed
3.) Axe
4.) Ice
5.) M2k
6.) Hungrybox
7.) Dr. PP
8.) Armada
9.) Ken
10.) Mango
...
31.) Germ
...
60.) Leffen

Because you never know.

 

[FourStar]

1.) Hax
2.) Shroomed
3.) Axe
4.) Ice
5.) M2k
6.) Hungrybox
7.) Dr. PP
8.) Armada
9.) Ken
10.) Mango
...
31.) Germ
...
60.) Leffen

Because you never know.

can't tell if you are straight up trolling or being serious lol. and do you really think ken will place that high?

 

[Osennecho]

He's trolling....

 

[Sedda]

1) Unknown player from the plains of Africa is going to destroy.

2) Does it even matter?

#AfricanSmash (please, tell me there are native African Smashers somewhere out there)

 

[UlyssesTheTrojan]

1. Mango
2. PP
3. Hbox
4. M2K
5. Armada
5. Ice
7. Hax
7. Wobbles

Armada could place higher obviously. Hbox wont beat mango m2k wont beat pp and PP HBOX will be very interesting. I just think that Mango in top shape is a different animal then the rest of the top 4. Armada will not be as mentally prepared and won't have the fire that propelled him to his domination in the first place. Ice I believe could crack the top 4 with his talent, but he does not know the top 4's tendencies and style on the level that each of them do with each other. Hax is seemingly a near lock for top 8 playing very consistently over the past few nationals. AND YA GOTTA HAVE AN IC's IN DA TOP 8

 

[Metà]

Ice won't make it to top 8. I would be astonished if he did.

 

[Bieber]

lol'd at all the armada getting 5th predictions

 

[FourStar]

now that armada's back i don't see why people place him at like fifth. now that he is back it going to be like this:
1. Armada
2. Dr. PP
3. Mango
4. Mew2King
5. Hungrybox
5. PewPewU
7. Axe
7. Hax

 

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

now that armada's back i don't see why people place him at like fifth. now that he is back it going to be like this:
1. Armada
2. Dr. PP
3. Mago
4. Mew2King
5. Hungrybox
5. PewPewU
7. Axe
7. KirbyKaze

That's the most unrealistic Evo prediction I have ever seen

KirbyKaze isn't even going to Evo

 

[FourStar]

That's the most unrealistic Evo prediction I have ever seen

KirbyKaze isn't even going to Evo

whoops didn't know that. well whatever 7th is up in the air right now. but how is this not realistic? Predictions are never ever realistic cause they never ever end up how people think it does

 

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

but how is this not realistic?

2 main reasons
1: KK not going
2: idk who this Mago guy is, but 3rd is probably a huge stretch for him

 

[FourStar]

2 main reasons
1: KK not going
2: idk who this Mago guy is, but 3rd is probably a huge stretch for him

LOL whoops i never saw that mango's name was spelt wrong. there its fixed. and i replaced KK with Hax now that i know KK is not going

 

[Rocketpowerchill]

DSW is winning EVO
We livin tho

 

[t3h Icy]

I can tell you that your predictions are off Fourstar, since Armada, Mango, and Dr.PP are all in the same quarter of the bracket, so they can't all get 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. For any three players to make 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, two of them have to meet in Winners' Finals, so one of them has to be in the opposite half.

It's like I mentioned earlier in this thread, you can't just make a list of who you think the best players; brackets don't work like that.

 

[KrIsP!]

It's totally possible, just unlikely. Every round they switch which side of losers your put into to try and avoid people meeting twice. It could be impossible but someone would have to go now and count the rounds to see if it matches up that way.

 

[clowsui]

Icy is right lol. At best it goes 1st 2nd 4th. Two out of the three have to go to losers meaning at best two play in LSF.