your predictions for EVO 2013

[crush]

Stfu jews mango lost

 

[strawhats]

HBox did 3-0 the player who sent Mango to losers. There's a very good reason Mango had to win a second set to be declared the winner of the tournament.

that was the closest 3-0 I've ever seen. Don't be surprised if PPU beats Hbox the next time they play (ala Axe scraping PPU at KoC 1 and then losing to Kevin at NCR in Bracket Pools WF). PPU is extremely adaptive...just though I'd throw that out there.

 

[R2_GP]

Mango vs M2k for the most epic grand finals (if somehow Armada showed up it whould be Armada vs M2k and Jason takes it all),
3.pp
4.hbox
5.s2j
6.westballz
7.SFAT
8.AXE
9.Wobbles
10. The cape.....yes THE cape

 

[Armada]

that was the closest 3-0 I've ever seen. Don't be surprised if PPU beats Hbox the next time they play (ala Axe scraping PPU at KoC 1 and then losing to Kevin at NCR in Bracket Pools WF). PPU is extremely adaptive...just though I'd throw that out there.

Yeah but he still won 3-0 which means he did better vs PPU then Mango did and only dropped one set in total at the tournament.

But I did watch that set and it was SUPER close matches. If PPU starts hitting those tippers from F-throw/down-throw (which is basically true combo) Hbox might be in problem the next time around.

 

[MrHazuki]

I am looking forward to seeing Ice and Axe going far. Both players bring lots of male genitalia to smash.

 

[Rocketpowerchill]

I am looking forward to seeing Ice and Axe going far. Both players bring lots of male genitalia to smash.

dont forget about dashizwiz

 

[MountainGoat]

1.Dr PP
2. M2k
3. Mango
4. Hax
5. HBox
5. PPU
7. Westballz
7. Ice
9. Wobbles
9. Shroomed

Just sort of gut instinct I might think about it more later and change it.

Dr PP is the one of the top four players and has the best mentality now that Armada is gone. M2k is also very good, plays to win but isn't quite on PP's level and has choked a lot recently. Mango is the most talented but most variable nowadays. He could win EVO but only if he actually fully applies himself. I don't think any outside these three have a very realistic shot besides the possibility of Hbox.

Hax has been getting better and better. Hbox, despite winning NCR didn't impress me that much, he was getting destroyed by Mango in the first set and I think PPU was sort of starting to figure him out. Westballz is really motivated right now and I think his Falcon is good enough to cover up for Falco's weakness against Peach. PPU has been improving as well and I feel like everything is starting to really click for him.

Ice and Wobbles have done really well recently and Shroomed is a perennial high performer at big tournaments. (5th and 9th at Apex with doc. with doc.)

My list has a humongous california bias and is probably missing super obvious people.

 

[Griffard]

1.Dr PP
2. M2k
3. Mango
4. Hax
5. HBox
5. PPU
7. Westballz
7. Ice
9. Wobbles
9. Shroomed

Just sort of gut instinct I might think about it more later and change it.

Dr PP is the one of the top four players and has the best mentality now that Armada is gone. M2k is also very good, plays to win but isn't quite on PP's level and has choked a lot recently. Mango is the most talented but most variable nowadays. He could win EVO but only if he actually fully applies himself. I don't think any outside these three have a very realistic shot besides the possibility of Hbox.

Hax has been getting better and better. Hbox, despite winning NCR didn't impress me that much, he was getting destroyed by Mango in the first set and I think PPU was sort of starting to figure him out. Westballz is really motivated right now and I think his Falcon is good enough to cover up for Falco's weakness against Peach. PPU has been improving as well and I feel like everything is starting to really click for him.

Ice and Wobbles have done really well recently and Shroomed is a perennial high performer at big tournaments. (5th and 9th at Apex with doc. with doc.)

My list has a humongous california bias and is probably missing super obvious people.

Love your post, but actually think 4 Californians for top 10 is not ridiculous, might even be undershooting. Definitely the strongest region at the moment imo. This is probably extremely extremely close to my best guess.

 

[Strong Badam]

I can see hax getting 4th if he doesn't meet one of the elite 4 in loser's quarters.
or if m2k decides to fight him

 

[Engo]

1.Dr PP
2. M2k
3. Mango
4. Hax
5. HBox
5. PPU
7. Westballz
7. Ice
9. Wobbles
9. Shroomed

Just sort of gut instinct I might think about it more later and change it.

What a weird ass gut instinct.

 

[ycz12]

Mango will finish between Wobbles and PPU.

That is my only prediction.

 

[MasterShake]

or if m2k decides to fight him

Everyone wishes.

 

[chenjesu]

that was the closest 3-0 I've ever seen. Don't be surprised if PPU beats Hbox the next time they play (ala Axe scraping PPU at KoC 1 and then losing to Kevin at NCR in Bracket Pools WF). PPU is extremely adaptive...just though I'd throw that out there.

Is PPU at that age where he can learn a language in like 2 months or something?

 

[007-jake]

PPU or GUCCI for first.

 

[KoRoBeNiKi]

>Melee Grand Finals
>Lights fade out
>Hype begins
>Ceiling opens
>There's a big *** helicopter in the sky
>[Hype Intensifies]
>Somebody is slowly descending from the heli
>It's Armada
>Hype reaches critical mass levels
>Generates enough energy to power the entirety of Vegas for years
>Energy radiates around Vegas
>City explodes, no survivors
>Sakurai releases Smash 4 hours later
>Pichu for top tier

Greatest post past Evo announcement

 

[Niko_K]

All I know is that there will likely not be any Canada in top 10 :/ KirbyKaze and Unknown522 aren't going neither is Vwins. I don't know how good Blunted_Object is these days. IB is really good but I don't know if he'll make top 10.

This is really unfortunate that our best aren't going to be there...IB is really good but considering the level of play certainly won't make top 10 and if B_O placed that well it would come as a large surprise to me.

Hope there is still a pass for myself to buy this Saturday

So my prediction is Mango chokes and gets fifth due to anger/perception regarding the importance of event...allowing M2K or even PPU to grab top 3 alongside Hbox and PP.

 

[t3h Icy]

I like how most people are ordering in a way that would be best player that are in attendance. Remember that pools are crazy and it's very likely that two excellent players will clash early leading to a Losers' Bracket destruction and possibly even unexpected players in Top 8.

 

[Niko_K]

Especially regarding the distribution of EVO points.

 

[clowsui]

I like how most people are ordering in a way that would be best player that are in attendance. Remember that pools are crazy and it's very likely that two excellent players will clash early leading to a Losers' Bracket destruction and possibly even unexpected players in Top 8.

there's a lot of ppl who will be seeded

M2K
Dr. PP (going to Toryuken or Zenith)
Hungrybox
Mango
SFAT
S2J
Hax
Unknown
PPU
Fly Amanita
Cactuar (assuming he makes t16 at Zenith, which I think he will)


afaik the best players unseeded are Wobbles, Taj, Kou, Ice, leffen (if he decides to enter...working on that right now >___<).

 

[Tarv]

As of right now my only prediction is that either Wobbles, Hax or Pewpewu is going to finish higher than hungrybox, mew2king, mango, or ppmd

 

[AppleAppleAZ]

PPU is the Truth. See him placing top 5/6.

 

[Djent]

I like how most people are ordering in a way that would be best player that are in attendance. Remember that pools are crazy and it's very likely that two excellent players will clash early leading to a Losers' Bracket destruction and possibly even unexpected players in Top 8.

I totally agree, but...there's no way to "predict" bracket chaos.

 

[LivewiresXe]

My guess would be one of Mango, PP, Pew, Hax, Hbox, Mango, or maybe Ice. If one of them wins, I'll be fine. Actually...if one of 99% of people wins I'll be fine, lol.

 

[Revven]

IMO, should totally do fantasy brackets for this somehow. Would be amazing.

 

[Juggleguy]

IMO, should totally do fantasy brackets for this somehow. Would be amazing.

We did a fantasy draft for Apex 2013 and it was really fun, here are the results:
http://www.smashboards.com/threads/calis-apex-fantasy-league-draft-complete.332193/

There were a few flaws with the system since it was the first time we tried it in a Smash capacity, but several members of NorCal have since devised an improved draft mechanism that seemed very fair after they gave it a try for KoC2.

 

[goateeguy]

There were a few flaws with the system since it was the first time we tried it in a Smash capacity, but several members of NorCal have since devised an improved draft mechanism that seemed very fair after they gave it a try for KoC2.

What changes did they make?

 

[Juggleguy]

Basically, due to the nature of Melee placings, there's almost always a clear favorite to take top __ at the tourney, so having an early draft pick position is very advantageous despite the balancing mechanism that the snake-style system is supposed to impose on the whole draft. For example, at Apex 2013 it was very clear to us who the top 4 would be comprised of, but 5th-9th was way more unpredictable, so everyone in our draft who had picks 5-10 was at a big disadvantage (even though they also got picks 11-16).

So NorCal started doing a pre-draft bid for pick position. Whoever bid the most points got to pick 1st in the first round, then whoever bid the second most points got to pick 2nd in the first round, etc. and at the end, their point total was deducted by the number of points they initially bid for their draft pick position. It's a balancing mechanism that can be adaptable to any fantasy "sport" based on the "draft metagame" as ridiculous as that sounds. Worked out well for KoC2!

 

[oliman]

PPU
PP
M2k
Mango
Hbox
Hax
Ice

 

[S l o X]

1. PP
2. Mango
3. Hungrybox
4. Mew2King
5. Hax
?. Unknown
?. PewpewU
?. Shroomed
?. Wobbles
?. Kirbykaze

i have free time.

Outside the top 3, placements are going to be scattered. Mango could be anywhere from 2-7, actually make that 2-400 considering it's Mango in Vegas. Honestly, Melee documentary guy should just follow Mango around all weekend and film The Hangover: Mango Edition. I missed Unknown at Apex, I think he's a good margin better than every other Fox (including SW) and that he could really upset any of the top 5 but I can still see him losing to any of the other players.

PP is the best player in the world at the moment, he's beaten Mango, Mew2King and Hungrybox in the latest sets afaik. I think he could beat everyone with Marth at this point but character choice makes little difference.

Mew2King is Mew2King.

West coast players are really solid but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to high caliber players from other regions.

 

[voorhese]

1. Chris G
2. Poongko
3. Diago
4. M2K
5. Justin Wong
7. Leffen
8. Mango

 

[RockinRudy]

1: Wobbles​

Because wobbling.​

2: Falco A.K.A PP​

Last: Scrub Foxes.​

 

[smashmachine]

obviously Chris G will extend his winningness to Melee by out-Mangoing Mango in the loser's bracket

 

[Revven]

I would be flabbergasted if Chris G did enter Melee and got into top 8

 

[Juggleguy]

1. PP
2. Mango
3. Hungrybox
4. Mew2King
5. Hax
?. Unknown
?. PewpewU
?. Shroomed
?. Wobbles
?. Kirbykaze

Unknown and KK aren't going to Evo.

 

[JuanTendo]

My guess goes to M2K finally nailing DR PP's Falco with Marth (no chance with Sheik) and taking first place. But i think most people here are making the mistake of counting KEN out of their equations. i can see him (depending on how much practice his doing) top 8 and who knows maybe even taking the whole thing.

Going old school i would love to see a KEN vs M2K GF
Shame Armada wont be there. F...K

 

[CyberZixx]

I don't think Ken has any chance at top 8.

 

[Djent]

Oh look, HBox beat PP again. I feel...vindicated.
Though it could easily go the other way at EVO...just let me gloat pls.

 

[angel_without_heart]

hbox plz stop DIing pp Fsmash up at 0% . sacred that jigg is too light to die at 0% or maybe jigg 's recovery his bad enough to not recover a 0%.
make me sick to see those easy bad di

 

[smashmachine]

Mango will clearly lose somewhere in winners bracket, come back to face Hbox in grand finals, win the first set, and....
you're free to predict what will happen next

 

[Djent]

Zenith increased my confidence in Mango, but I still wouldn't put his odds of winning above 25%. Although, I don't think anyone's odds are higher than that. Viscant did an excellent write-up last year about who was going to win Marvel, and it basically amounted to a few key matchups between good players early on. Tournaments these large are won by staying in the winners' bracket. I basically think this is how Melee is going to go, as with Armada's retirement there is no player with favorable match-ups against the entire field of players.

With all this in mind, I'm amending my predictions. I think it's safe to say that Mango, M2K, PP, and HBox are the top 4 seeds at this point. Mango has the highest odds of winning because he matches up well against PP and HBox. However, if he gets M2K in Semis, there's a reasonable chance he'll lose. PP is the other strong candidate because of his positive records vs. M2K and HBox, but he'll likely lose to Mango if those two end up playing. I don't see M2K taking the tournament because of his terrible records vs. PP/HBox, and he'll almost certainly have to play one of them in WF even if he makes it through Semis somehow. HBox could pull something but M2K is his only strong matchup among the top seeds.

My new list is heavily biased towards those who have seeding points. Obviously not everyone in top 8 will, but some killers we expect will make it are going to knock each other out.

1) Mango
2) Dr. Peepee
3) Hungrybox
4) Mew2King
5) Hax
5) PewPewU
7) Wobbles
7) Shroomed