LONG, NOSTALGIA-BASED RANT INCOMING:
Nintendo speculation has almost reached a dead end as we've had so little news for almost the past year. Technically speaking, the Nintendo Direct drought of late 2019 - early 2020 is still going on because the March 2020 Direct was only a Direct Mini and didn't reveal much (not even the Smash Ultimate CP6 reveal was very big as they only gave us the series the new fighter is from, not to mention it's DLC). Now that we're halfway through June 2020, past when E3 would have been, and Nintendo have still mostly stayed silent, I've reached the conclusion that the insiders were probably right: Nintendo, at this rate, likely won't hold a Direct this month.
That makes me very sad. When I was watching people's reactions to the PS5 reveal, despite not being a PlayStation fan, I could sense the massive feeling of excitement and hype PlayStation fans were having. Experiencing a very big reveal, especially for a new console, is a magical moment. I remember following the Smash Ultimate hype train ever since its first announcement in the March 2018 Direct, and the game's reveal at E3 2018 excited me so much that I could hardly concentrate at school the following day. I remember, before the Switch launched, secretly going onto the 3DS eShop in the morning and repeatedly watching all the trailers from the Nintendo Switch Presentation in January 2017. 11-year-old me was worried my parents would punish me for going onto the eShop (which was a pretty irrational fear in retrospect), but I still couldn't wait for the Switch to launch, even if I didn't get one until just after Christmas 2018. Looking back now, I can still feel the excitement people who were watching the presentation live felt throughout the stream.
Knowing that E3 2020 was cancelled and Nintendo have offered no replacement event, many people have suggested the idea that many of Nintendo's plans, including Directs, have had to be cancelled due to COVID-19 and work-from-home policies. I am one of the few that rejects this idea. I'm no industry insider or know-it-all, but typically a game's production takes years to complete and is finished around 3 months before its release, which means only games or DLC released in June or onwards will have been impacted at all by lockdown, and games released in the months after will probably only be impacted a little. For example, the ARMS fighter in Smash can't have been a result of coronavirus as, not only was it announced in March, the month lockdown was actually implemented worldwide, but Sakurai said in the Byleth showcase back in January (and filmed in November) that the Fighters Pass vol. 2 lineup has already been decided upon. It's games released in the next one or two years that will probably be impacted. Similarly, Directs seem like they could be edited by one or two people as normal. I learned earlier that Japan has a big focus on working face-to-face, to the extent that many people don't even have a PC or Internet connection at home, but I'm willing to bet the Direct editors do. If not, Nintendo of Japan could possibly still send some Nintendo of America employees the video templates for Directs and have them edit them.
I honestly think Nintendo's radio silence on anything this year was simply the result of Nintendo not having much planned for this year. People have raised concerns over their seemingly lacking 2020 lineup since November 2019, and it doesn't seem to have changed much. 2 games have been announced since then - PMD:RTDX (in all its long abbreviation glory) and PM:TOK - as well as DLC for 2 games - SSBU and Pokemon S&S - but that still feels very lacking. I believe at this point that Nintendo's 2020 would have been disappointing regardless of a global pandemic... or I'm just using this as an overly long explanation as to why I miss E3. Who knows.