Top ten at Apex 2013 predictions.

[Battlecow]

Highest placing marth def. PPU I'd say

BUT Taj could pull another "lololol I will never retire lololol" and do amazing again

and jpg could be better than I give him credit for

but honestly ppu

 

[Tarv]

TheLake, I don't know who you are but you should team with The Moon if he's going to Apex. Also Pewpewu for 2nd highest placing Marth, behind m2k (3rd if we count Dr. PP as a Marth).

 

[Alex Strife]

how is the moon NOT going to apex . He is tristate for LYFE

 

[Battlecow]

m2k is a marth in 3 matchups: fox, falco, and marth on FD. PPU is a marth in 156 matchups. PPU's the best marth in 153/156 matchups, which makes him the best marth.

 

[arcane9211]

Unrelated, but has m2k ever lost a marth ditto set in tournament?

Edit- or a marth at all since ken?

 

[Anand]

m2k is a marth in 3 matchups: fox, falco, and marth on FD. PPU is a marth in 156 matchups. PPU's the best marth in 153/156 matchups, which makes him the best marth.

although really, do you know for sure that, say, M2K's Marth vs Marth on DL64 is worse than PPU's Marth vs Marth on DL64?

just because M2K's Sheik is better than his Marth in a certain matchup doesn't disqualify his Marth

(unless I'm missing something, by similar logic, my Puff is better than Mango's)

 

[strawhats]

he's lost a game or two to pp in dittos (won the set)

I think he lost to Azen back in 2006 in one set

 

[Dark Hart]

Since when does m2k only play Marth in dittos on FD? I thought he just outright played Marth in dittos....

 

[Tarv]

Semi off-topic: Does anyone else think that KirbyKaze and Axe both have a really good chance of beating Armada?

I ran a mock bracket based off of the Apex 2012 bracket with a few changes on challonge if anyone is interested in seeing it. Some of it is pretty controversial and will likely give me many angry shakings of the fist. In my defense I tried to be as unbiased as possible and to take the tournament match by match. Even I was a bit surprised at the results.

Anyways here it is: http://challonge.com/TarvPredictions

Feel free to laugh at my silly predictions and call me names. (Don't be too mean though )

Good Luck to Everyone

 

[Biglard]

Why would you be so mean with S2J?

Also I highly doubt Armada could finish 9th, even though Axe was pretty close last time and we've never seen him play KK.

call me names

Robert

Damn, looking at this virtual bracket I only begin to realize how stacked the tournament will be...

 

[The Business]

Rofl @ Mango beating Vudujin.

Vudujin 2013.

Also in the first round of losers bracket you have Vudujin beating sol 2-0 and sol moving on.

 

[Tarv]

Rofl @ Mango beating Vudujin.

Vudujin 2013.

Also in the first round of losers bracket you have Vudujin beating sol 2-0 and sol moving on.

Yeah, something weird happened there and I don't know how to retroactively edit matches.

Also I highly doubt Armada could finish 9th, even though Axe was pretty close last time and we've never seen him play KK.

Yeah, even I'll admit that's pretty ridiculous. Anyways, just think of this as "the only possible bracket situation where Armada could conceivably not make top 4".

 

[Blistering Speed]

Axe's character is too limited to beat Armada, in the context of the match-up and their respective playstyles.

That said, I've realised Mew2king, Axe, Javi and PewPewU are the only competitors I really care about anymore. PeePee, Hungrybox, Mango and Armada (though some of your upset "predictions" for this guy are adorable) will inevitably steam roll everyone who isn't themselves.

EDIT: No idea why Hax is backing out like a *****, but it's hilariously obvious.

 

[Juggleguy]

Hate to say it, but Axe has never come close to beating Armada. If we're going by their Apex 2010 set... getting 3-stocked game 1, then making a 3-stock comeback game 2, then getting 3-stocked again game 3 does not count as a close set.

 

[Strong Badam]

lol armada 9th

 

[Battlecow]

y'all don't know about axe's aggro young link

that **** will WRECK peaches

 

[Habefiet]

Axe's character is too limited to beat Armada, in the context of the match-up and their respective playstyles.

That said, I've realised Mew2king, Axe, Javi and PewPewU are the only competitors I really care about anymore. PeePee, Hungrybox, Mango and Armada (though some of your upset "predictions" for this guy are adorable) will inevitably steam roll everyone who isn't themselves.

EDIT: No idea why Hax is backing out like a *****, but it's hilariously obvious.

And what if Axe CPs? His Falco didn't do amazingly at Pound V but it certainly didn't get embarrassed, and his YL did brilliantly in the one game he tried it versus HBox (obviously a different MU, but still, the man's got other characters). Also, I refuse to believe it's impossible. He's taken games before. Difficult, but not impossible.

I find your assertion that PP/HBox/Mango/Armada will "streamroll" everyone outside that circle a little perplexing when this year three of them have lost sets to people outside that loop (though Mango's losses were a little sandbaggy--sorry Bladewise) and all of them have been 1 game away from losing to someone outside that loop. They're the best, they're the favorites, but they're not <i>completely</i> invincible to the people right under them.

Hate to say it, but Axe has never come close to beating Armada. If we're going by their Apex 2010 set... getting 3-stocked game 1, then making a 3-stock comeback game 2, then getting 3-stocked again game 3 does not count as a close set.

A: He did better at Pound V than Apex 2010 IMO even though it was a 3-1 rather than a 2-1.
B: This logic as applied to Armada before Pound V: "Hate to say it, but Armada never came close to beating Hungrybox. 6-0 speaks for itself" Dat Young Linkkkkkk

C'mon guys. Not to discount Armada, he's the favorite versus literally every opponent and his favored-ness becomes even more favorable as we go down the list, but don't count out a player as undeniably-strong-when-at-peak-performance as Axe imo.

 

[Tarv]

So looking back, the Axe vs. Armada match was more "Axe could possibly beat Armada" but in all seriousness Armada probably has the better chance in the match. So I'm going to redo the mock tournament with that in mind. Will edit this post when finished with the adjusted bracket.


Edit: Adjusted Mock Tourney Bracket (featuring a much less controversial results list, hopefully): http://challonge.com/TarvPredictions

 

[oukd]

i think axe has a better chance vs armada with pika tbh. his falco's way too turboaggro and that's the type of falco that armada just chews through

if he goes yl tho. that would be interesting lol

 

[ShroudedOne]

I don't see a top Pikachu beating a top Peach. Ever.

Props to Axe if he can pull it off, but that MU isn't friendly.

 

[tarheeljks]

really wouldn't be surprised if axe beat any of the other peaches. he's that good

 

[Juushichi]

Axe is probably already just flat out better than the other Peaches not Armada. Maybe ignoring a non-rusty McCain... and hanky panky kappa

 

[ShroudedOne]

really wouldn't be surprised if axe beat any of the other peaches. he's that good

None of the other active Peaches are top Peaches.

Well, Vanz counts, I guess. But I have a feeling he wouldn't go Peach.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

who is this hanky panky I hear so much about?

 

[hungrybox]

109 pages of excitement and explosions

 

[tarheeljks]

None of the other active Peaches are top Peaches.

Well, Vanz counts, I guess. But I have a feeling he wouldn't go Peach.

why didn't you say he won't be armada then?

 

[Strong Badam]

109 pages of excitement and explosions

you mean 41 pages

 

[ShroudedOne]

Yeah, you're right. Saying "top Peaches" makes it sound like there's more than one Peach at that level.

 

[Strong Badam]

There are two.
Armada
and ShroudedOne

 

[Asylum]

Put some thought into it.

1. Mango
2. Armada
3. Dr. PeePee
4. Hungrybox
5. Mew2King
6. KirbyKaze
7. Unknown522
8. Axe
9. Javi
10. Sfat

 

[Strong Badam]

Dear Hungrybox
when you make next years, please make it top 8 or top 12. you know there's no ****ing top 10 at a tournament man

 

[Mahone]

ya, im so confused at what all these lists mean???????????

its so hard to figure out, mirite strongbad, what a bunch of idiots

i bet they don't even know useless frame data

 

[Grim Tuesday]

I ****ing love Mahone

 

[ZetTroxX]

10char

 

[Strong Badam]

i bet they don't even know useless frame data

bet they don't either
n00bz

 

[KrIsP!]

you mean 41 pages

Hbox ppp exposed

 

[Blistering Speed]

I ****ing love Mahone

Seriously.

EDIT: Habefiet, you are irrationally biased towards the idea of upsets, because they're an entertaining, exciting prospect in a typically predictable, pseudo-stagnant metagame. My predictions ground themselves in probability from past data, not in what I want to happen.

 

[Habefiet]

Seriously.

EDIT: Habefiet, you are irrationally biased towards the idea of upsets, because they're an entertaining, exciting prospect in a typically predictable, pseudo-stagnant metagame. My predictions ground themselves in probability from past data, not in what I want to happen.

Thank you for reposting that old post of Mahone's, I needed a smile this morning.

I accept that upsets are implausible at best (that's why they're upsets, after all), I just think it's overkill to assume that the top four will "steamroll" everyone outside their circle when we've seen PP conspicuously fail to steamroll Javi and Mew2King, HBox fail to steamroll Kirbykaze, etc. etc. You have a tendency to insert very definitive statements into not-entirely-definitive scenarios. I find it the height of presumption to assume that Javi will get steamrolled by PP this time around if they meet up, or HBox, or Mango or Armada, simply because we can't really know whether his performance last time was characteristic of his skill, exceptionally good for him, or exceptionally bad for him.

I actually think we mostly agree (I consider certain upsets slightly more likely than you do, but not by as much of a margin as I believe you're assuming) and I'm just haggling over semantics, so I'll just drop it say Mahone will win Apex 2013.

Man why we gotta make []s instead of <>s for html stuff

 

[Anand]

Thank you for reposting that old post of Mahone's, I needed a smile this morning.

I accept that upsets are implausible at best (that's why they're upsets, after all), I just think it's overkill to assume that the top four will "steamroll" everyone outside their circle when we've seen PP conspicuously fail to steamroll Javi and Mew2King, HBox fail to steamroll Kirbykaze, etc. etc. You have a tendency to insert very definitive statements into not-entirely-definitive scenarios. I find it the height of presumption to assume that Javi will get steamrolled by PP this time around if they meet up, or HBox, or Mango or Armada, simply because we can't really know whether his performance last time was characteristic of his skill, exceptionally good for him, or exceptionally bad for him.

I actually think we mostly agree (I consider certain upsets slightly more likely than you do, but not by as much of a margin as I believe you're assuming) and I'm just haggling over semantics, so I'll just drop it say Mahone will win Apex 2013.

Man why we gotta make []s instead of <>s for html stuff

It's BBCode, not HTML.

 

[Battlecow]

upsets among to the top 4 are unlikely unless JAVIIIIIIII

but upsets AMONG the top 3 are so, so, so likely