Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Hat simulator 2021

Chance: 9%
Team Fortress 2 is an iconic and emblematic game, which pioneered the hero shooter and managed to stay relevant for years and amass a huge community of players. I think it's safe to say that all 9 operatives are iconic, at least to Western audiences. That's where the positives end, as otherwise Team Fortress 2 has an uphill battle to get a fighter. For one, Valve and Nintendo have a nonexistent relationship. The fact that we have to look at a bridge construction game that wasn't even made or published by Valve to find a link between the two says everything. Valve themselves have never put a game on any Nintendo system, nor have their IPs shown up anywhere on them. Maybe Fortnite will change that soon, though given that it's developed by Steam's self-appointed rival, probably not. Aside from that (which in and of itself is already enough), I don't know if the game is even popular in Japan, or if hero shooters are. We know they hate gore and FPSes over there so that doesn't bode well. Heavy has some popularity, but it's hard to tell whether it's genuine as the polls he did well in were suspected to be rigged or tampered with, and that popularity would have come way too late to be considered anyways. Finally, I think Nintendo would rather go for mute-but-iconic characters like Gordon or Chell that fit their design ethos rather than the loud and boisterous TF2 cast.

Want: 50%
I love me some TF2. Played it a lot back in the day. Though I can't say a rep in Smash interests me. I don't think the humor would translate well and it might get annoying if poorly implemented. I also don't really see fighter material. The game absolutely deserves it so I'd be fine with it if it happened, but I think Gordon Freeman should be the first Valve rep if there were to be one.

Noms: Agent 47 x10
John prediction: 8.22%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Mii Costume: Madeline pre-Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x370
Agent 47 x365
Excitebiker x360
Worms x345
Zagreus x310
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x295
Concept: Far Cry rep x289

300 - 251

Billy & Jimmy Lee x270
Mike Haggar x265


250 - 201

Concept: Disgaea rep x250
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Rallen (Spectrobes) x230
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x215
Tetra x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Concept: Skullgirls rep x179
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Trevor Philips x155

150 - 101

Beatrice (Umineko) x150
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Senator Armstrong x145
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x145
Riptor x140
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Ryza (Atelier) x135
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x131
Concept: From Software rep x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Sackboy x95
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
[Rerate] Louie x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Meat Boy x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Legends Trainer x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Officer Howard x55

50 - 25

Bill Rizer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
Garchomp x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Gunvolt x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
[Rerate] Tails x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Corvo Attano x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Firebrand x1

Officer Howard and Legends Trainer each capture over 50 noms.

Today's new nominee is a rerate of Tails, with 20 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about TF2.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Team Fortress 2 Rep

Chance: 0.1% - I'm just not seeing it at the moment, Nintendo and Valve have no current working relationship, and that is by far the biggest factor third party characters need to have on their side to have a chance. The demand is certainly there, as evidenced by the fans in Europe, but a lack of Japanese popularity of any kind really doesn't bode well (though even if they didn't do well, those Japan-exclusive arcade machines are interesting). Furthermore, Valve itself doesn't give much love to TF2 anymore. The servers are still overrun with bots, updates are extremely infrequent, an incomplete comic as was mentioned earlier, and the lack of staff helping maintain the game. Finally, there's the issue of competition, Gordon Freeman poses a huge brick wall of competition, and in an AU where Nintendo and Valve had the same relationship Nintendo and Bethesda have, Alyx would be a massive threat to Heavy. Speaking of which, he's the one with the most fan demand, though I occasionally have heard Scout suggested as an alternative. Still, either way there's way too many hurdles to make this happen.

Want: 5% - Never been into Valve's games so I can't say I care much for them getting in. Alongside that, I've had to deal with a lot of extremely militant Valve fans back in the day (especially back in 2011 when I was just getting into the Elder Scrolls. Valve was at the height of its' popularity and a lot of people I know who loved Valve and TF2 mocked me for loving "bad guy Bethesda" instead of "Good Guy Valve". Also kinda hypocritical, since they often trashed Bethesda for not letting go of Creation/Gamebryo when all of Valve's games, especially at the time, were based on the very dated Source engine. Still that's beside the point) which left a very bad taste in my mouth. The complete lack of Nintendo representation doesn't help at all (the things Joker's inclusion enabled...). Plus when it comes to Western reps I greatly prefer characters like Dragonborn or Crash. Still, with all of the bad blood being a thing of the past, I have warmed up to the idea a little more. Plus the Heavy has cameod in other games I've played with my friends, from a silly Baldi mod, to Civilization 5 and beyond, and he's been funny in that outside material. So if Valve's games were on a Nintendo system I'd definitely be more open to the idea, but at this point in time it isn't really anything I'd want to see.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo
[Rerate] Louie x5


Predictions:
John Marston - 4,28% - Rockstar's lack of Nintendo relationship in recent years likely won't bring much confidence. Though with John's series, Red Dead Redemption, not having the baggage of GTA, he definitely would seem more appealing to Nintendo from a business and image perspective than someone like Trevor or CJ.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Chance: 10%
IIRC TF2 isn't really popular in Japan? The only reason the chance is this high is because of the consistent support from his fanbase.

Want: 100%
I love this game to bits and I'd be fine with any character making the roster because they're all great personalities and have distinct abilities. My top picks are Heavy, Soldier, Scout, and Demoman.

-Heavy because practically everyone who wants a TF2 character is supporting him. Also he'd be a pretty unique heavyweight with his minigun and sandvich.

-Soldier due to his unique rocket jumping mechanic which could be interesting in Smash, allowing for great mobility at the cost of damaging yourself. I also love his personality and taunts in TF2, and market gardening in Smash would be hilarious.

-Scout would fit very well into this kind of game, weaving in and out of the action with his scattergun and flying guillotine. He's also my favorite character personality-wise, his voice clips are so much fun to listen to with his cocky attitude and obnoxious laughing.

-Demo would also fit very well. His grenade launcher and stickybombs may be a bit too similar to Snake if I'm being honest, but the image of this screaming Scottish guy flying at you at Mach 2 while wielding an electrified frying pan makes him too funny to disregard completely. Also the loose cannon could fit very interestingly into his moveset.

Nomination:
Q*Bert

 

[DanganZilla5]

...I don't have a joke for this one...

Chance: 5%

I think this has a slight chance of happening. TF2 is a very notable game in the online FPS genre and has maintained popularity for over a decade. And...that's it for the positives. PC gaming has been growing in Japan, but I don't think TF2 is one of the rising stars, not to mention it's a FPS which we all know is not a popular genre in Japan. Steam itself has worldwide popularity, but Valve hasn't been interested in TF2 since the updates seem to be the bare minimum these days. When I look at everything from competition with other Valve characters and western characters being a rare sight, I cannot bet on this at all. And that's not even going into the fact that Valve and Nintendo have pretty much a non existent partnership. Gabe Newell seems to be open to having one of Valve's characters in Smash but that's about it.

Want: 75%

Unfortunately I have not had the opportunity to play a whole lot of TF2 since my PCs are ****. But the times that I did play it, I had a blast. TF2 has a lot of personality with interesting map designs and good music. It would be a big deal if it got into Smash and it definitely deserves the inclusion so I would be down for this.

Prediction: John Marston - 6%

Noms: Excitebiker x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TF2 Rep

5% Chance

I am a bit biased here, as I will explain in want. But I genuinely can see that TF2 might have had a decent ballot presence. While some people might say the game is dead (even if player numbers say otherwise), in 2014-2015? TF2 was a lot more active. Combine that with how big of an internet presence TF2 has had, I would not be surprised if a TF2 rep was thought about due to that.

TF2 reps have gotten a lot of recent support, but I do not think that would be nearly as impactful in the grand scheme of things for this DLC cycle. Heavy’s support was growing for a while in DLC, but its main growth at least according to some surveys, more on that in a bit, came after FP2 was selected. Those surveys also have messy data, since these end up flooded when someone posts a link to one of them in r/tf2. As a result, while it is clear that heavy has increased his fan demand a lot in recent years, I doubt it would have a strong presence.

So TF2 is basically campaigning on its huge internet support. What are its downsides? Well for one, it is a lot more Western. While Steam has been making inroads and growing over the past decade in Japan, TF2 was not the biggest benefactor in that so far. Honestly, unless Valve starts promoting it again as their free to play killer app, I don’t see it benefitting as much from Steam’s growth. The other main factor is Valve and Nintendo do not have much of a relationship. While Gabe Newell might love to say something nice about Nintendo every once and a while, the two do not have much of a business relationship to speak of. Maybe when Portal 2 or Left 4 Dead comes to the Switch I will be a bit less pessimistic. For now though, I am not optimistic in a TF2 Rep.



100% Want

God I want this. TF2 is arguably my favorite game of all time. If it is not Number 1 outright, it is in the top five. Seriously, I could go on and on about how much I love TF2.

Lets start with one thing that arguably made me turn off of another similar game: Movement. I hate to compare Overwatch and TF2, they are more different than people think. But the movement in Overwatch sucks. 4 characters have fun movement in Overwatch. Doomfist, Genji, Tracer, Lucio. That is it. Everyone else feels like a slug. In TF2, even the slowest classes still have some movement tech. I can’t tell you how much joy I get surfing a rocket as Medic, or evading a whole team as Spy with my raw movement and invisibility. That is not even counting Rocket and Sticky Jumping, god I love Sticky Jumping.The movement in TF2 is part of what made me fall in love with it. TF2 just rewards you the more you learn it. While that is true with any game, I feel it is even higher with TF2 due to how high its skillcap is.

It also helps that god, the game is charming. Each character is fun in their own way, with a ton of personality. The characters in TF2 are just so expressive in a good way. Part of why I love getting dominations is just so that I can hear the domination lines. Like, backstabbing one sniper over and over again and hearing Spy taunt Sniper for living in a van is just hilarious. The Meet The Team videos are still some of the best promotional material for any game I have ever seen. Heck, it makes me sad the Adult Swim show fell through, it would have been great to hear these characters go on more adventures, it is part of why the comics are so fun.

But even moreso, TF2 is just a hugely nostalgic part of my life. I started playing TF2 in 2011, after it went F2P. My first update was Halloween 2011, with Smissmass 2011 being when I went P2P. For over a decade, TF2 has been one of those games I play all the time with my friends. Be it messing around on an Upward game, being in fun community maps like an Ed Edd and Eddy trade server or Clock town from Majoras Mask, or just doing dumb shenanigans with awful sets like with the Classic. TF2 is one of those games that has had an undisputed effect on my life, and the fact I am still playing it to this day says a lot.

But most of all, I love TF2 and its community. No community is perfect, there are lots of bad apples in TF2. I wish I could say I have not kicked someone for saying something offensive in the past week or two, but I would be lying. Every community has its bad apples, but the number of good times and good people I met via Team Fortress 2 is honestly insane. I love the fact this game with so much depth and personality brings so many people together. While the game is not dead, any extra shot of life would be appreciated. If TF2 in smash would bring some new blood, I would be down with that.

Legends Trainer x 10

 

[SharkLord]

Double Castle Gang
Chance - 20%. Maybe I'm just being generous, but TF2 has a massive internet following, and it's cast is quite recognizable. In addition, Valve has some Nintendo connections, minor as they may be. Still, those connections are rather slim, and as others have mentioned already, TF2's support has slowed to a crawl. It doesn't seem like TF2 is as popular in Japan, either, which would make them a hard Western-oriented pick. All things considered, that puts them in a bit of a bind.
Want - 75%. I have no personal connection to TF2 beyond Heavy is Dead, but it looks like a delightful wacky experience. It helps that I have some friends who really like it, so their positivity would rub off on me with enough time anyways.

Prediction: John Marston - 2%

Noms: Ryza x10

 

[TheThingamajigRayman]

TF2 Rep

Chance: 5%
Not very likely. The series doesn't have any Nintendo presence at all, and once again a bit western. I could maybe see it happen from fan demand, but then again their support never really started until AFTER FP2 was decided. And Valve doesn't really have much of a relationship with Nintendo. However, I think if it did happen it would without a doubt be Heavy as the TF2 rep.

Want: Abstain
I've never played TF2. I've heard good things about it, and it's free, just never got around to it.

Noms: Sackboy x10
Prediction: John Marston 4%

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I've got nothing witty for this

Chance: 1% TF2 seems to slowly fading when compared to it's peak from a decade ago, but the game's still a juggernaut that refuses to die, even after the successful Overwatch tried to get rid of it only to prove that TF2 at it's weakest is still incredibly strong with it's memorable and iconic cast, it's bat**** lore such as stairs being invented because people got tired of having to rocket jump to get to different floors and most importantly, fun and addicting gameplay. Sakurai's very much aware of Half Life but we don't know his thoughts of other Valve properties and we also know Valve and Nintendo have intended to work together in the past so it's not unreasonable to assume Nintendo would be more willing to go for TF2 than not, but it really depends if TF2's even on the radar for the people in charge of the roster.

Want: 100%

It's been well over a decade since I've as much as touched TF2 but oh boy does the game bring back fond memories, TF2 would be a fantastic pick because it's so crazy that you'd need to actively try to **** the idea up. Would they go for Heavy, a lovable hammy goofball with a giant minigun that'd be effective at keeping people away? A Demoman with launchable C4s that'd be super fun to **** around with? The Scout who's personality and abilities naturally fit with Smash more well than others? The Engineer who can place turrets to make an interesting stage control tool? Or even the Spy who's able to disguise himself and maybe use all of the above? There's so much you can do there it's insane!

Zagreus x5
Beatrice x5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Mann, oh mann...
Chance: 2%
I never thought the day would come when I'd say this, but the era of Team Fortress 2 is ending. The final, final update for TF2 has been announced (is it released yet? I dunno), and before that TF2 didn't get much in the way of new content. Plus, FPS games aren't exactly high on the list of priorities, especially with other iconic games in the genre, such as Halo. It's also very Western heavy, and doesn't have a lot of presence in Japan. Valve's relationship with Nintendo, while it exists, isn't much to cheer for either.

On the other hand, where TF2 does have a foothold (the West), boy is it popular. It's basically the Western Touhou in terms of popularity, and over a decade on is somehow still popular, even if it is now only a shadow of what it once was.

Want: 30%
TF2 is a game that holds a lot of memories for me. For one thing, it is a whole lotta fun. Blasting around as the Soldier or Demoman, getting those sick (sometimes accidental) backstabs as Spy, burning teams down as Pyro...ah yes. That said, I can't really hype myself up for a TF2 rep. These days I unfortunately don't really think much of the game anymore.

Oh, and remember above when I said TF2 is a Western Touhou?

Uh, I would personally MUCH rather have Touhou, thanks.

Predictions: John Marston: 5.8%

Noms: Corvo Attano x10

 

[Ridrool64]

Alright, I nominated this one, so I BETTER make it good.

Chance: 20%. (Of them, I give Heavy a 60%, Scout/Pyro a 20%, Spy/Demoman/Soldier/Engie a 15%, and Medic/Sniper a 5%.)

First things first, if I think Heavy is the likeliest, why not just rate him? Well, I don't feel like it's nearly as free for the Heavy as, say, Bill Rizer is for the Contra character. Heavy is often thought of as the "TF2 main character" or at least the closest thing, but all 9 classes pretty much exist on an even playing field.

Now, what are the chances that we get a TF2 character? -- Well as I previously said, not very high. To some, 20% might seem like an extreme overreach, but remember that means I think that an overwhelming majority of the time, they do not happen. Let's look at the pros and cons these characters have to get a more accurate judgement on the chances Super Smash Bros. Ultimate x Team Fortress 2 ever shows up.

Spoiler: Wall of Text incoming!

Pros:

• Very, very strong fan demand in circles outside of the usual domain. While some may debate about their legitimacy, in two of the largest ballots I could find (one on Twitter, the other on Global Smash Roster), Heavy won them both* (I know GSR can't be won per se but Heavy is the highest ranked), and in the latter all 9 mercenaries rank rather well. Even if they are considered tainted samples, in the Mega Smash Poll 2020 by SourceGaming he got 24th place, more than double that of Gordon Freeman's ranking (more on him later).
• Extensive Smash-fitting style that stands out from every Smash newcomer up to this point.
• Strong internet legacy and iconicity: be honest, how many people here couldn't name all 9 mercenaries, or even have their images pop up in their heads? Internet culture and Team Fortress 2 go hand-in-hand, like peanut butter and jelly or cereal and milk or bread and butter. This combines with the first two points to demonstrate that it's iconic, it would go over well, and it has just enough of unbelievability to break the internet. Possibly forever. It defines a genre, the Hero Shooter, that remains popular to this day.
• All the major reps have something unique about them: Heavy and Scout are probably the most traditional but still have unique moveset potential. Pyro's afterburn based fire gameplay, Soldier's dynamic rocket jump movement, Demoman's mix of blazing offense and tactical defense, and Spy's espionage goals would all be unique.
• TF2 has stood the test of time. In a genre that frequently discards games older than a year, or even older than 9 months, Team Fortress 2 has survived for almost 15 years. Bear in mind this is after stuff like a disaster update and... well, we'll get there when we get there. But it proves that despite being among the newest third parties
• Strong popularity during the ballot era: TF2 was very popular in 2015, which was when the ballot happened. We've had characters who did well in the ballot despite being underrepresented in fan polls for various reasons (for example, while nobody hated the idea of Simon Belmont getting in, he was hardly a priority especially back when people thought he was competing with Solid Snake's return for a slot, and Konami had recently destroyed much of their fandom through the Silent Hills and MGSV back to back controversies. So he underperformed in fan polls, but Castlevania as a whole did well on the ballot leading to their inclusion.)

Neutral:

• Team Fortress 2 has never appeared on an Nintendo console, nor have any of its characters (outside of loophole tricks like YouTube videos). Considering that they likely negotiated for Joker well before Q2 was revealed, or possibly before it was even a thing, I have a hard time saying that this will do the trick.
• TF2 can be a pretty bloody game, and there's frequent cases of gibbing. But, they aren't anywhere near integral to the experience, being able to be turned off or made silly, so I don't think that it would be rejected for being too mature.

Cons:

• Valve has no real connection with Nintendo: this, right here, it the big one. It demonstrates why TF2 is unlikely in the most reasonable way, there's simply not a connection between the two. And I don't believe there will be for a while. I don't think they're hostile, and the possiblility of ports of some of their games like CS:GO, Dota 2 or the Half-Life series is possible. But the game of the hour, well...
• Valve has mostly abandoned TF2: this is the other big one. The current state of the game is disheartening for such an iconic title. Valve, beyond seasonal events which contain relatively little content, has not added much to the game since 2017. Moreover, there's an infamous bot problem. Bot mega-problem. Bot absolute infestation. To be fair, it's usually only in pubs but still, that's the easiest mode to get into. It is said that less than 10 people work on the game at a time. All of these indicate that Valve considers themselves mostly done with the game and have moved on to greener pastures.
• We're late in the pass, TF2 might be too big for a slot now. I don't think that it is, but without the hope of a star studded reveal slot things may get tricky.
• Weak popularity in Japan: this is something I can't verify. For what it's worth, the game IS available in Japan most likely and there's an official Japanese translation but the possibility Sakurai simply hasn't heard of it or Nintendo doesn't want to disappoint their domestic market is there. But it's something I have a hunch on.
• No leaks have related to TF2 in Smash: yeah this one I will ignore, we've had unleaked characters before.
• Competition Lighting Round:
  • Chell: The third wheel. Doesn't really HAVE a big advantage over TF2 or Half-Life, or most other FPS's as the days of 2011 are long gone and Portal has mostly fallen behind.
  • CS:GO Rep: Little to no demand for it. The game is considerably more popular in raw playercount, but not as iconic and doesn't pervade across the internet.
  • Other FPS characters: TF2 and most other prominent FPS reps in Smash speculation (Master Chief, Doom Slayer, Freeman, etc.) are different in that TF2 is a multiplayer shooter focused on its PVP, while the other FPS reps are from more singleplayer oriented experiences. So I feel like they compete with each other far less than usual. Besides, if we can have two JRPG characters back to back, surely two FPS characters is fine.
  • Tracer, and other Overwatch characters: However, this one is different. Overwatch is perhaps the most direct comparison I could make, because it too is an iconic multiplayer online team based FPS. Blizzard may be knee-deep in hot **** due to a bunch of controversies, but I imagine Nintendo wouldn't give two hoots about that. Overwatch isn't a free thing: it fights Crash Bandicoot and other ActiBliz properties to win in that front, but it is most likely the second biggest competitor to such an inclusion.
• Gordon Freeman: He's probably the biggest competitor to a Team Fortress 2 character, sharing genre, iconicity, popularity and company with the 9-strong gang. But why do a bunch of people think of Freeman as first in line to the great fray? Well, Freeman came first, Half-Life revolutionized PC gaming and even Team Fortress now owes a part of itself to Half-Life. Valve actually gives a crap about Half-Life, if Alyx is any indication. It's the game where the Valve theme comes from, Hazardous Environments. So if I had to say, it's probably the silent scientist up against the mercenaries for hire. But I feel like, a similar case was made with Banjo vs. Steve, and Banjo got in first. Of course, both got in, and who Nintendo wanted in the first place was another question, but I feel like that something similar would happen here. Team Fortress 2 feels to me like the David going up against the Goliath Half-Life, and it would win. Still, it's absurdly close, and we most likely don't have room for both, so it could go either way.
  • It's worth noting that according to both YouTube and Google Analytics, Team Fortress 2 outperforms Half-Life at every turn, except when Half-Life is getting something new. The most viewed official Half-Life video is the announcement trailer for Half-Life Alyx at 11M views, versus TF2 having not one, not two, but 11 videos that have more than that, some such as Meet the Medic having over triple or even more than 5x as many views. And that's before counting fan-made videos, which does bump up Half-Life to 21M counting playlists, but still has TF2 way ahead. Views are not everything to determine popularity (as they are skewed in favor of fandom over general reach) and those are just two sites, though, but YouTube in particular is one of the most popular.

Now that THAT wall of text is out of the way, now let's analyze the classes who they would choose if they DID decide on a TF2 character. Ordered in likelihood in my eyes.

1. Heavy - I may believe he is not the uncontested one, but I would still put him at the number one spot. His fan demand is absurd and he's still kind of the face of the game, even if he isn't as popular to play and the gap between him and the other mercenaries is often exaggerated. A true third party heavyweight has yet to be seen for reasons outside of balance, and I feel like the Heavy would be the way to go. I also feel like his moveset potential is a bit shallow compared to the others, but it does suit him well enough that he doesn't feel lacking.
2. Scout - Scout is right behind and perhaps the best suited to a game like Smash. High movement, skills built for 1v1 combat and a great feel make him a stellar candidate. Thanks to a diverse range of secondaries and melee weapons, he also has great weapons to moveset compatibility.
3. Pyro - Pyro is also a prominent face of the game... kind of. They have perhaps the most official attention from Valve and their video is the most iconic out of the "reasonable" candidates. Probably has the best weapons to moveset compatibility in the group.
4. Spy (tied with Demo) - Spy is the only support class I think could happen. Either as an all-in-one character or more faithful to himself, he would be able to go invisible and get cheesy kills via backstab (obviously not at the same time), but he's very very fragile.
5. Demoman (tied with Spy) - The one I feel like would be the coolest. A stickybomb launcher, sword, shield, grenade launcher and even an old German grenade used as a melee weapon? He even has the best final smash potential through MONOCULUS!. I feel like Demo is an underrated candidate.
6. Soldier - Pre 2020 I'd consider him the likeliest behind Heavy, but without a voice it'll be hard to recover and they may want to prioritize others anyhow. But make no mistake, he's just as viable of a choice due to his moveset and iconicity.
7. Engineer - I consider him below the others mostly because of how slow he makes the game feel. Sentries and Dispensers are very hard to balance, and could easily be overtuned or effectively worthless depending on both effect and safety of building. And an Engineer without his buildings is no Engineer. He feels more like Assist Trophy material as a result.
   1. Engie is the last one I think who has a reasonable chance. The other two I don't think will happen.
8. Medic - TF2 is innately a team based game, but the others can reasonably work in a solo environment. Not so much Medic thanks to the Medigun. Would be underpowered on his own and most likely ban-worthy in doubles.
9. Sniper - Jarate is absolutely not happening in a kid's game. Next to impossible to balance, either being near deadweight bottom tier or 10x as busted as Brawl Meta Knight. And besides, not after the whole bot situation.

There I go for chance.

Want: 80%. But a long time ago, I didn't really care. What changed? Well, I got into TF2 around November 2020, long after Valve had abandoned it and long after the bot crisis. It was a return to a game I hadn't played in years, but at the same time it was an introduction to an insane world I'd never really thought about before. I found that the game was fun, the community was... something, and it all felt like I had wandered into something I would've loved if I'd given it a chance. This was, again, after the whole fall of community servers and the bot situation which I did encounter, but has been easy to work around. Now I finally understand what it is people are looking for in TF2 getting into Smash Bros., besides recognition as a last ditch effort of course.

As for my class to class rating, #1 is Spy, > Demoman, > Pyro > Heavy > Soldier > Scout > Medic > Engineer > Sniper. Spy's the one I like to play the most; badly, but still. Demoman and Pyro are the ones I think would be the most interesting adapted into the Smash style. Heavy, Soldier and Scout are the most popular requests but I don't know what to think of them, yet I'd still be down for it. Medic, Engie and Sniper just wouldn't be fun to play in the hectic environment of Smash to me.

You can tell I care a lot more than I did with Madeleine due to actually having a write-up done.

Abstain on John Marsten prediction. Worms x max.

 

[silenthunder]

Chances 10%
I love TF2 but it's really old and we have overwatch now. It's also a PC game only on Steam. However a lot of Team Fortress fans like smash and vice versa and Tf2 has already been in crossovers like Sonic all-star racing and Killing floor (and a fallguys outfit). However none of these were on a nintendo console. Team fortress was exclusive to the pc version of sonic all star racing.
Want 100%
I loved tf2. It had fun gameplay and cool videos on youtube. I didn't invest too much money into it, or follow the lore. But The characters are great.

Nominations: Senator Armstrong x all

Can someone help me see a list of who's leading nominations please. I don't know where to look.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

10%
I love TF2 but it's really old and we have overwatch now. It's also a PC game only on Steam

TF2's had 2 console ports actually. Sure, they were literally from 2007, 4 years before the game became f2p but it's something

 

[silenthunder]

TF2's had 2 console ports actually. Sure, they were literally from 2007, 4 years before the game became f2p but it's something

Oh yeah I forgot about that

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Mii Costume: Madeline pre-Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x370
Agent 47 x365
Excitebiker x360
Worms x345
Zagreus x310
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x295
Concept: Far Cry rep x289

300 - 251

Billy & Jimmy Lee x270
Mike Haggar x265


250 - 201

Concept: Disgaea rep x250
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Rallen (Spectrobes) x230
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x215
Tetra x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Concept: Skullgirls rep x179
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Trevor Philips x155

150 - 101

Beatrice (Umineko) x150
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Senator Armstrong x145
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x145
Riptor x140
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Ryza (Atelier) x135
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x131
Concept: From Software rep x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Sackboy x95
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
[Rerate] Louie x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Meat Boy x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Legends Trainer x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Officer Howard x55

50 - 25

Bill Rizer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
Garchomp x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Gunvolt x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
[Rerate] Tails x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Corvo Attano x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Firebrand x1

Officer Howard and Legends Trainer each capture over 50 noms.

Today's new nominee is a rerate of Tails, with 20 noms.

silenthunder here's the noms list.

 

[Dan Quixote]

One way or another, everyone in our generation has some sense of nostalgia for this game. What other game can say that, eh?

Challenger Packs have standards.

CHANCE - 15%
Man I hate to be pessimistic two days in a row. The PC aspect of this really kneecaps it, imo. Nintendo over the past half decade has integrated themselves into the mobile phone market, which is a movie I would have laughed at beforehand. Nintendo just always seemed really insular y'know? Very proud of all their iconic exclusives and unique consoles. Considering that shocking move, I don't think it's impossible for Nintendo to work with a totally PC dev like Valve. Heck you could even say they already have done that with their buddy-buddy Microsoft. Still, it just feels like a longshot because of the different market that exists in PC gaming. I just don't think Nintendo and Valve would care about each other, especially with Valve being American.
Not all is hopeless though! Out of every major PC franchise, TF2 has got to be among the most Nintendo-like. The cartoony designs of the characters and the wacky gameplay slot perfectly into Smash, so these guys would totally be looked at first if the Smash devs wanted a Valve fighter. TF2 is also extremely iconic and has been popular regularly for over a decade, so it has clout. Valve might be American, but the game is popular in Japan iirc, so that helps.

WANT - 65%
Normally when we rate a concept that includes any one of a group of characters, I say that it's hard to gauge the want score since I'll feel differently depending on the character. TF2 is a big exception! Yes we all know Heavy is the boxart character like Tracer or Spring Man, but the whole cast is so iconic and fun in their own ways, and none of them really feel like side characters in much the same way as other games would have them. Any of the classes in TF2 could translate really well into a fighting game and feel like they just belong there. It's almost sad that the game would only get one fighter to its name.
As for my personal like of TF2, well it's like I said. Everyone my age adores this game. I haven't touched it in who knows how long, but everyone had a phase where they tried this thing out. It's one of the most nostalgic games ever what with the entire culture that developed around it and the effect it had on gaming and Internet culture in the early parts of the decade. I'd certainly never complain about any of them making it in.
(Though there isn't much music to pull from is there...)

Predictions: John Marston 6%

Nominations: Tetra x10

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

MEET THE TF2 REP.

Chance: 1%

Yeah, not seeing it here.

-Nonexistent presence in Japan, making it a very unlikely choice by default. I was harsh as hell with the likes of Reimu and Sakura for lack of western presence, and i am gonna as harsh with these when it comes to the opposite issue.

-No Nintendo presence in the slightest. Not even Valve has that much connection with Nintendo in general, and any collab with them has been unremarkable and has not made either party close to each other.

-TF2 is carried by its Community. That is not a bad thing, but from a company perspective, why would you want to bring a character from an IP that you don't even care about over Half Life, which is agruably Valve's most important IP legacy-wise, it even got a new game (Not 3) while TF2 has been losing steam over the years.

-Not really requested that much. Not a roadblock in the slightlest, but when a character like this one faces hard circumstances, being a huge fan request sometimes tends to be the saving grace which has helped the likes of K.Rool, Ridley and Banjo.

Honestly i don't see any reason why they would choose this character(s).

Want: 35%

Which is kind of a shame, unlike other character like Saber, Reimu and Master Chief who i would NOT want in Smash even if they had the merits i was looking for, this is a character that could get in Smash despite i everything i said against them and STILL be happy. TF2 is simply too charismastic to at least not give at least one of these mercenaries a try.

I have never played a single match of TF2, but i would love to and would love TF2 to become relevant in the eyes of Valve.

Noms:

Gunvolt X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Henry Stickmin

0.06% Chance - 32.68% Want
It would seem that, in the excitement of Pythra's presentation and the days that followed, most of you forgot to predict poor Henry. No extra noms for this day...
Henry has earned the dubious honor of being the least likely third party character, as well as 4th least likely overall.

Mii Costume: Madeline
15.13% Chance - 76.92% Want
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 15.28%
Madeline is now the most wanted Mii Costume, beating Jill Stingray's score of 69.38%

Spoiler: The ListTM

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 29
Lyncario 25
Mr. MR 75
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Calcs

Henry Stickmin

0.06% Chance - 32.68% Want
It would seem that, in the excitement of Pythra's presentation and the days that followed, most of you forgot to predict poor Henry. No extra noms for this day...
Henry has earned the dubious honor of being the least likely third party character, as well as 4th least likely overall.

Mii Costume: Madeline
15.13% Chance - 76.92% Want
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 15.28%
Madeline is now the most wanted Mii Costume, beating Jill Stingray's score of 69.38%

Spoiler: The ListTM

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 29
Lyncario 25
Mr. MR 75
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

That seems pretty in-character for Henry...

 

[SKX31]

Okay, so, TF2 character:

Chance: 5 %

You know, on a conceptual level Nintendo and Valve would make for excellent partners. Their dev teams lean very highly on the auteur side of things, which is noticeable even in multiplayer-focused titles like Splatoon and Dota 2. But that begs the question, why haven't they interacted on a significant level at all - beyond Valve giving the okay for Bridge Constructor Portal (which, lets face it, hasn't been moving the needle much)? Maybe Nintendo and Valve are just content with Nintendo's consoles and Steam having their respective shares of the industry pie? Who knows really, but this long-standing non-intreraction - at least officially - between the two corps have certainly hampered their chances.

There are some real pros that TF2 has. TF2's had a amazing run - especially as a game that was initially thought of as the "Third wheel" of the Orange Box. It's safe to say that TF2's earned its keep in the Valve Pantheon, and much more than that "Third wheel". Beyond it having a consistently high playerbase on Steam it also helped to spawn Garry's Mod and Source Filmmaker, which themselves have been very wildly used for all kinds of animated shenanigas. And its fans still look fondly towards TF2's characters, which is hypotheoretically one reason they could be chosen above Gordon, Chell or other Valve characters.

Which is why I will never get why Nintendo nor Valve never took the opportunity to port Orange Box or TF2 to Switch. It's not a difficult thing to do, right?

Want: 45 %

TBH, not my favorite Valve pick, but hey, I'd take it. When TF1 was first a thing 10 year old me looked at it on a small gaming booklet, and thought it wouldn't go anywhere. Well, my inner 10 year old self is kicking himself over that miss, I can tell you that much. Because he loved to call it like it's in the bag (that's still a part of me, FTR). It's one reason I'd welcome it, even if I as a professed Dota 2 fanboy would prefer that hypotheoretically.

Besides - a TF2 character would be a welcome change of pace.

Noms: Gunvolt x10.

 

[Pillow]

TF2 Character
Chance - 1%
I think people overstated TF2's significance. It was a popular game, but it's still very Western and it's popularity has definitely waned over the last few years. I maintain that representation from either of the other 2 Orange Box games is more likely, and even then I wouldn't hold my breathe. I can't imagine our first FPS Rep being the Heavy or any of the other boys, over some other franchise like Doom, Halo, or even something like CoD or Overwatch.

Want - 10%
To be clear, I loved TF2. I played so much of that game back in its prime. I spent hours trading virtual hats with shiny effects for money. But the thing is, it's not the type of game I really am that interested in seeing in Smash. I've always associated Smash more with console gaming, so these PC gaming characters would feel out of place for me (yes I know TF2 had a console port, but on one played that garbage). I can understand characters like Steve, who's franchise is so massive the original medium it was played through hardly matters, but I'd be very confused to see the Heavy.

noms:
Max Fromsoft

 

[Inue Houji]

TF2 rep
Once again abstaining for now, rating TBD.

Predictions
John Marston: 1.1%

Nominations
Rallen x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate John Marston from the Red Dead series.

Predict Concept: A 4X strategy rep.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Wild West mood:

Spoiler: Red Dead Music

 

[fogbadge]

abstain i dont even know which red dead games hes from. nom grunty x5

 

[Lionfranky]

John Marston

Chance: 1%

Rockstar may have at least more history with Nintendo than Valve, but their relationship disappeared after LA Noire iirc. I doubt he would be under Nintendo's radar. Both RDR and GTA have crime and mature themes which would most likely put off Nintendo. Violence is one thing, but crime is something I believe Nintendo would want to stay away from it. No, Joker and Persona are not close to level of crime depicted in GTA or RDR. But, I feel RDR is less guilty of it. In the end, it's not something Nintendo would pursue.

Want: 25%

For realistic figure, I think he may be able to stand out. Sure, he is a generic cowboy gunslinger, but his deadeye can be tweaked to be fun mechanic. I spent tons of time on both games, so that's my bias I have to admit. I prefer Read Dead Redemption to GTA. I would rather have John over other GTA protagonists. I think he would look more unique than them, but it's not saying much. I highly recommend these games as they have one of the best character development gaming can offer. With all that said, I think he should wait in line before taking spot. It's one of those series that I like but not passionate enough to be supportive for Smash inclusion.

Nom: 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Don't mind me I'm just posting more awesome RDR music

 

[chocolatejr9]

Don't mind me I'm just posting more awesome RDR music

minding intensifies

Abstain. I know nothing about RDR.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

John McClane....no wait wrong John. John Snow! Oh wait the cowboy John.

Chance: 3%

The Red Dead series actually goes all the way back to the PS2 days with Red Dead Revolver, then there was Red Dead Redemption in 2010 and Red Dead Redemption 2 in 2018. The Redemption games in particular are considered some of the best games of their generation and are iconic. In terms of relevance in Japan, the games have done decently there so overall the series has some merits. But would Nintendo go for it? I doubt it. Red Dead has never seen the light on Nintendo systems and while I saw that RDR 2 was briefly listed for the Switch on a website a while ago, nothing has come out of that. Rockstar and Nintendo never had the closest relationship despite them porting the occasional game to Nintendo's systems. It is very telling that the last Rockstar game that was on a Nintendo system was in 2017, and that was a port of a 7th gen game. At this point I doubt that Nintendo is looking at Rockstar for potential Smash candidates, especially since they are much closer to other western companies.

Want: Abstain

I have RDR 1 in my backlog so I haven't played it yet. It seems fun and I've heard nothing but good things about the series (Aside from the behind the scenes drama but I'm not going to bring that up or have it affect my opinion on the game itself) so I can't give an opinion yet.

Prediction: 4X Strategy rep - 4%

Noms: Excitebiker x10

 

[BowserKing]

John

Chance: 5%. His chance is quite low, due to the franchise being not as big and well recognized, at least compared to many huge franchises. But then again, you should expect the unexpected. With that said, his chance is higher for future instalments.

Want: 50%. On the other hand, he would be fun to play as. I can see him partnering with Duck Hunt against some opponents. But overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: 4X Rep (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[DaUsername]

Getting my slightly late tf2 rating in by quoting what I said for Heavy's day, because it also applies here.

Man, I need to stop procrastinating.
Heavy Weapons Guy
Chance: 0.1%
Not only has TF2 never been on a Nintendo platform, neither has any other game Valve has ever released. Valve's Nintendo debut being in Smash Bros. just doesn't make sense to me.
Want: 60%
Him getting in would be really cool, though. Sucks that it's never gonna happen.

RDR prediction: 4%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I don't know anything about RDR other than the second game snubbing 2018's Game Awards because gaming industry.

4X Strategy: 5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Yeehaw
Chance: 0.1%
Rockstar atleast has a closer relation to Nintendo than Valve but it's still paperthin. Rockstar games on Nintendo platforms seem to be a rarity and RDR in particular has never been released on any of them. The company hasn't done anything for Nintendo since the LA Noire port which was quite some time ago, I doubt they have anything for the future and it's especially unlikely they have any stakes in Smash Bros. If Nintendo really wants a character from a western big budget AAA third-party game then picks like Master Chief and Geralt are right there.

Want: 0%
I haven't played any Red Dead game. While they are good games from what I've heard, I don't care about having a character from them in Smash. John Cowboyman would probably have the GTA problem of having a hugely realistic firearm based moveset and just generally looking out of place imo. Also, obligatory "western third-party that isn't one of my favorites" complaint. Heck, in this case I don't really feel a Rockstar rep would be even warrented with howlittle support they are showing for Nintendo.

4K strategy rep: 3.24%
Skullgirls rep x10

 

[Pillow]

Chance - 1%
Once again I cite "Too Western" as a criticism for a character. It's just not happening. We're not getting a game series that's so unknown in Japan. If they actually ever went to Rockstar, GTA is still the big name series. I don't ever see GTA being repped in Smash either, because it's a very controversial series, but I think it'd be more likely than RDR.

Want - 10%
Eh, while I hear the RDR games are good I couldn't really get into them (I literally stopped after the first horse race in the first game). He's a cowboy, and cowboys are cool. But there are characters that could fill this character fantasy that I feel are more visually distinct/interesting such as Dillion. He doesn't have much of a fanbase for Smash players either. Not really feeling it.

Nominations:
xMax FromSoft

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Jon Marston

0.1% Chance

Well, Red Dead ain’t a dead series anymore. It did get its sequel finally…which is not on the Switch…and neither is the first game...Honestly, I hate to use a company’s support for a Nintendo platform as a detraction, but Rockstar just do not port their games, even their older ones, to the switch. As a result, I am struggling to see the scenario where Jon gets in. This is not even including possible other Rockstar competition. Until we get more strong Rockstar ports to the switch than just LA Noire, I am not as confident in a Rockstar character period.

0% Want

Yeah, RDR is a great game, and the sequel aint bad either. Honestly, I prefer both to GTA. That being said, I have absolutely no interest in Jon Marston or Arthur Morgan ever being in Smash. We are at a stage in Smash where odds are that we are getting these two and maybe a bonus character or two if we are lucky. Competition is fierce, so I would want a newcomer that I at the very least am somewhat down with. But I just have no real desire for the cowboy. Sorry.

Legends Trainer x 10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm gonna abstain, got nothing here, Zag gets the noms

 

[GoodGrief741]

Lumbago

Chance: 5%
Let's go into what is perhaps the one positive thing for John's chances: he's iconic enough, from a series that's acclaimed enough, by a developer that's successful enough, that if the chance presented itself Nintendo might say "**** it" and ignore everything below (also known as the Kratos Principle). Now for the bad stuff: John Marston has never been on a Nintendo console. There has never been a Red Dead game on a Nintendo console (not even Red Dead Revolver, which mind you was a Capcom game in the sixth generation). Rockstar and Nintendo only work together sporadically, with major collaborations (like two exclusive GTA games and the definitive edition of Bully) sprinkled between years of nothing. To be fair, Nintendo does get a lot of games from Rockstar's sister studios, like the BioShock collection and several Borderlands games. It's also unlikely that Red Dead ever does get on the Switch, as Rockstar does its own thing, rarely cares for ports (they pretty much treat GTA V as a "new" game even to this day, a rarity for them), and their games are too technically intensive for Nintendo. Red Dead feels like too big a franchise to be saved for this late. And they have to compete with GTA, which is older, more famous and successful, and has games on Nintendo. And even disregarding all that, John would have to compete with Arthur, the fan favorite star of the most recent game.

Oh, for an anecdotal positive, RDR2 influenced the design of BotW2, so that's something!

Want: 90%
I prefer Arthur as the rep, as he's cooler and a hell of a complex character, but John is cool too. Honestly they could be alts as they both use Dead Eye, and his moveset would probably use elements from RDR2 Richter style. But yeah, the RDR games are masterpieces, with RDR2 tied with BotW as the best open worlds in gaming for me. Their somber atmosphere, developed characters with great arcs, and the general coolness of playing as a cowboy in a fleshed out world make them stand out even in Rockstar's stellar library.

Noms: Agent 47 x10
4X prediction: 4% heh

Abstain. I don't know anything about RDR other than the second game snubbing 2018's Game Awards because gaming industry.

4X Strategy: 5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

Uh, don't you mean the Game Awards snubbed the second game? I don't see how a game can snub an awards show...

 

[Jomosensual]

John Marston

Chance 5 - So there's 2 very major plot points here in the case of John Marston. One works in his favor a lot and one does the exact opposite. The good point is that both him and the Red Dead series are very iconic. In the west they were absolutely massive and in the east I believe that they've done good as well. So that's something that's 100% in his favor and I think at the bare minimum always keeps his chances above a 0. However, the big negative is that Rockstar and Nintendo's relationship is practically non existent. While that doesn't disqualify who characters completely, it also doesn't look good when all the 3rd parties so far have been characters who have been characters from companies Nintendo actively works with. So yeah, there we go. Do I think this could happen? Maybe. Will it? Probably not

Want 60 - So, even though I've been really into playing some of the more iconic non Nintendo series as of late, I've still never touched a Red Dead game. That's something I should probably fix at some point. Overall though John seems like a cool pick. A cowboy character would be really bad ass to play as. ANd even though I don't know the game or character that well I can't say he doesn't belong if he gets in based on how popular he is.

Predictions
4x Strategy rep - 9.42

Noms:
Far Cry x10

 

[Sari]

Abstaining since I never got to play RDR. Granted while I don't see anyone ever topping CJ as my most wanted Rockstar Games character, I feel we are long overdue for a cowboy character.

4x Strategy rep chance prediction: 10.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/echo x5

 

[TheThingamajigRayman]

Abstain. Not really that interested in RDR or John.

Noms: Sackboy x5