Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Remaining FP2 predictions pre-Henry Stickmin

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x350
Agent 47 x345
Excitebiker x340
Worms x330
Zagreus x300
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x280
Concept: Far Cry rep x274

300 - 251

Mike Haggar x265
Billy & Jimmy Lee x265

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Disgaea rep x225
Rallen (Spectrobes) x220
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x212
Tetra x205
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x195
Estelle Bright x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Concept: Skullgirls rep x164
Trevor Philips x155

150 - 101

Riptor x140
Boss: Rayquaza x140
Senator Armstrong x140
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Beatrice (Umineko) x135
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x131
Concept: From Software rep x125
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x125
Ryza (Atelier) x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
[Rerate] Louie x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Meat Boy x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Bill Rizer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Officer Howard x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Garchomp x40
Legends Trainer x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Gunvolt x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Firebrand x1

We have a bit of a gambit pileup in the top seven right now. First Excitebiker passes Worms and takes first place. But then Agent 47 passes Worms and Excitebiker and he takes first place. And after that A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass passes Worms, Excitebiker and 47 and it is the one that ends the day in first place. Also, Curly as Quote's alt/Echo shoots past Mike Haggar, Zagreus cuts through both, and Far Cry rep sneaks in and steals Haggar's spot.

Billy & Jimmy Lee fight their way through 250 noms.

Rallen and Disgaea rep cross 200 noms.

Estelle Bright, Trevor Philips, and Skullgirls rep steal over 150 noms.

Ryza and Beatrice craft 100 noms.

Louie and Meat Boy collect over 50 noms.

Gunvolt reaches 25 noms.

Your new nominees for today are Legends Trainer and a rerate of Officer Howard, debuting at 40 and 45 noms respectively.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Abstaining from this one. Not familiar at all. I'll say that from what I looked up it started as some flash game series, I don't think that does it much well, that said, it seems it got a game on Steam not too long ago. Still, I doubt that'd change much.

Nominations: Estelle Bright x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Henry Stickman: Ace Stickttorney

Chance: 0.01%

I guess this could happen in one timeline. I remember Henry Stickman being popular on YouTube years ago and now it has gone through a resurgence in popularity. But there are just lots of points against him, as well as some question marks. His resurgence happened after this pass was decided and at that point the series was stuck being flash games. The million dollar question is does Japan have access to these games? Especially before the Henry Stickman Collection which was in 2020. Would Nintendo even be interested in promoting a series that, for a long time, was only a flash game series that is not even accessible on their own system? Do people even want Stickman in Smash? He seems to be fairly popular on the internet, but not necessarily in the Gaming landscape. So many questions, but it does make one thing clear: Realistically, Stickman is not getting in. I don't see much reason why he would be on Nintendo's radar.

Want: 50%

I've played some of the Henry Stickman games and I've watched so many YouTube videos on the series. They are charming games with a good sense of humor and Stickman has a surprising amount of personality and moveset potential. But the thing is I never thought about him being in Smash until now, so I am not sure on how I would feel about his inclusion. I would have to see how they would translate the style and personality of the Stickman world before making an official judgement.

Prediction: Madeline - 25%

Noms: Excitebiker x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The last time I touched this series was literally over a decade ago and introduced me to Ace Attorney. The collection's in my wishlist but I haven't gotten around to buying it yet so I'll have to abstain.

Zagreus x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Stickman since I really don't have much to say on him. Though the lack of fan demand and inaccessibility of his games in Japan really doesn't do him any favors, along with his complete lack of Nintendo presence.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

Predictions:
Madelaine Costume - 15.28% - Expecting it to get some average indie costume scores, nothing too special really.

 

[Lyncario]

Henry Stickman

Chances: 0%
Let's see, the release date of the Henry Stickman collection is in august 2020, which is way, way too late for him to be considered, since before that he was just a newgrounds character, and I don't think that Nintendo is looking on newgrounds or other sites like that outside of copyright striking some people, and like, why would they pick him? Even if he was popular, by the time that FP2 was chosen, Henry wasn't popular, he only got his resurgeance recently, so really I don't see a possibility where Nintendo picked him over any other western characters, even less when you take into account japanese characters.

Want: 35%
Henry is alright overall, but I just don't want him in Smash, so I'm more or less neutral on him. He could have a trademark wacky moveset, that's sure, how he could have a more conventional moveset, but meh. I just don't want him in Smash, nothing against the guy, but I just don't see him being extremly fun to play, and while a stage could be nice, stilll eh. I just feel nothing strong towards Henry Sticman in Smash.

Prediction
MadeMiine: 6.4%

Nominations
Rerate: Officer Howard x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

TJ "Henry" Stickmin
Chance: 0%
Henry Stickmin used to be a ChooseYourOwnAdventure series of free Newgrounds flash games. Newgrounds might at best be as well known in Japan as popular Japanese content sharing sites are known in the west. This is simply not a side of gaming Nintendo would care to represent, especially with those early games having some copyrighted material in them. (though to be fair we do have Megalovania in the game which originated from a Earthbound rom hack) The games saw a recent revival through the Henry Stickmin collection on Steam... which of course is exclusive to Steam. It also has no Japanese localization and released way to late for it to have impact on the pass. As somebody who still thinks a Indie character is possible, there's very little in it for Nintendo here. That's not even mentioning how Henry would play, or even look right in Smash, cause this would be a awkward character. I guess it could be done if they tried hard enough but Sakurai and the dev team would likely just think "why are we bothering with this?"

Want: 30%
These games are a great time with some excellent writing and jokes and I can seriously recommend the collection. However, I doubt if that would all translate well into Smash, where much of that personality could get lost and you just have a bunch of stick figures in a challenger pack. They could prove me wrong, but I don't see this happening in either case. There are still third-parties I would much rather want. Western third-party indies especially cause while I love what Innersloth made here, it just doesn't quite stack up to the likes of Undertale and Hollow Knight.

Madeline costume: 22.56%
Skullgirls rep x10

 

[Commander_Alph]

Bendy Stickmom

Chances: 0%

I've actually said this before when we rate Amogus which I said that it will be really sus of them to choose Crewmate other than trying to cash in on the series soon short-lived popularity while at the same time suggesting that they might choose Henry which still ultimately ended the same as the last one which is that it's something too good to be true. My point is still the same which is that InnerSloth never really have any relationship with Nintendo until recently and that's just a port.


Want: 100%

I've played the flash game since I was a little lad and Henry would've been good addition to Smash, I always thought he will be the series true joke character, something similar to Deadpool. Rather than having an original moveset all of his move is filled with video game references with his special all borrowed from 4 different characters.





Noms: Disgaea rep x10

 

[Sari]

Abstaining.

Madeline costume chance prediction: 13.42%

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Henry Stickmin

Chance: 0%

After researching briefly on this game, I learned that this is similar case to Among Us. Too recent to cement itself among consciousness of many people... Well at least port wise. At least, Joker was given enough time to get on Nintendo/Sakurai's radar. And from look of it, this is simply not something Nintendo would pay attention to. While I think Japan factor is overrated, I would be lying if that was non factor at all. That factor definitely doesn't help at all in this case.

Want: 30%

I guess they can make fun gimmick out of gameplay. Like special prompting several random events/attacks. But, he is not on my priority list. There are bigger fish to try before we even pay attention to characters like this. I think surprise and WTF choices are nice, but not like this. At least, this guy should wait his turn far longer to be even considered.

Nom: 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[Flyboy]

Henry Stickmin
Chance: 0%
So, Henry Stickmin and his games are the original flagship games by the Among Us devs, and are part of why Among Us blew up - people played these games on Steam, went digging, and Among Us found a new renaissance in popularity around the world. Cool! However, there is no chance that Nintendo would consider it. It's an indy game like any other number of Western indy titles that hasn't blown up like crazy and isn't even on Switch. Unlike other not-on-Switch titles, I don't see the market appeal of Henry Stickmin in Smash, especially since, again, Among Us is the big game right now. Bad timing, obscurity, no real legacy, and being overshadowed...not a great combination.

Want: 1%
I don't want to give a 0% because I like Innersloth and I think the games are cute. But that's it, really...cute. There are more WTF characters, more indy characters, and even other Innersloth characters I'd prefer to see by a mile added to the game. I don't think I'd hate it or anything, it's just something so far outside of the realm of possibility in my head that I can't really imagine it happening nor do I have any strong feelings towards wanting it. Again, the games are fine, this isn't a judgment against the character or games, but in a Smash context no thanks. It'd be cool if he or the Impostor got into Fraymakers, though.

Nominations: Beatrice x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Henry Stickmin

Chance 0 - Yeah, this is never going to happen. While still technically a video game, there's some genres I don't expect to ever see make it. Much like mobile game, flash games also fall into that. While Henry has some positives, such as being one of the most popular characters from flash games, I can't see Smash ever going in that route. If there's any non console genres that get a rep in Smash it'll be PC first. I don't think there's room for any other new systems left in the DLC at the moment.

Want 0 - Yeah, I really don't want this to happen. Much like mobile games, I don't really want to see flash games get repped into Smash. It's a novel idea for something like Brawlhalla but for Smash? Nope. There's so many good characters out there who don't even get talked about from console gaming that I feel like we should cover more of them before we start talking about them before we start talking about flash games. That's nothing against them either, I played a ton of flash games when I was younger. But there's a lot more that should go into Smash than just the game was fun.

Predictions:
Madeline - 6.31

Noms:
Far Cry Rep x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Henry Stickman

0.01% Chance

Well, Flash games are something that have not been represented in Smash yet directly, so Henry has that going for him. He also has a tad bit of relevancy with his games getting a remaster by Innersloth a little while back. In terms of flash characters, he probably is one of the bigger ones. But I still do not see it. Henry Stickman at least from what I can see has had minimal fan demand and the idea of Nintendo choosing to represent Flash seems baffling. Furthermore, he is a Western rep that is in the grand scheme of things very small. Honestly, I would consider Among Us or Fall Guys content more likely.



0% Want

I literally have zero investment in Henry Stickman. Nothing against flash games, but I literally do not care about Henry. He seems fine enough, I have no real complaints. But I just do not care for this character one way or another. Combine that with the fact that we may only have two slots left, I am gonna be a tad harsher in my want ratings going forward. Sorry Henry, you are just a casualty of my apathy.

Legends Trainer x 10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Henry Stickmin

Chance: 0%
Oh yeah, he DEFINETLY isn't happening. He's most famous for his role in old Flash/Newgrounds games. While the recent Collection on Steam helped expand his audience, that there lies the main problem: he only RECENTLY became mainstream. Even then, he's mostly known for the memes surrounding him, for better or worse. Add to that the lack of Nintendo presence, and I can't see him happening.
Want: 100%
Okay, I'm just gonna say it: the Henry Stickmin games are some of the funniest games I've seen. The references, the in-jokes, everything feels so... appealing to me. Maybe it's because I grew up in that era of humor, but I can't help but love it. Plus, he would represent TWO types of gaming that aren't currently represented: Flash/Newgrounds games, and the Choose Your Adventure genre. That last one in particular can REALLY help his moveset potential

Speaking of movesets, while I'm not the kind of person to share these outside of the appropriate threads, I noticed a lot of people were concerned about moveset potential, so I figured I'd share this:

Admittedly, this one is rather complex, but it should give a basic idea of what Henry can do.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep x10

 

[TheThingamajigRayman]

Henry Stickmin

Chance: 0%
Not even a slim of a chance of this happening at all. The Henry Stickmin series has no Nintendo relevance or presence at all. Not only that, but the series only just recently surged back into popularity in 2020 with the Steam re-release, which was AFTER the characters for FP2 were even decided. Heck, even Crewmate is more likely, even though they're virtually impossible too! So basically, it's not happening. Sorry Henry, maybe next game.

Want: 30%
I mean, I wouldn't be against it, but he's just not really a character I want. That being said, I really like the games. I haven't played them in a while, but I remember really enjoying them. I just don't really think he'd have a great moveset, or he's even a character I think of being in Smash at all really. BUT, he could represent Flash! He has that going for him right? Aha, yeah lets go with that.

Madeline Mii Prediction: 20.35%
Noms: Sackboy x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

this is where i'd make a joke... if i had one

Double zeroes
I think Henry's the first character I've ever had to Google in the history of this thread. In fact when I had to lock the schedule I thought I ****ed up because I couldn't find any evidence of its existence on Wikipedia, I thought somehow I'd been tricked into adding a non-videogame character on the list. So I thought it best to hold off on rating him until I saw what people had to say, learn a bit. From what I gather, Henry Stickmin is a character from a series of Newgrounds flash games from, I presume, the time when those were relevant. His games were created by the team behind Among Us (so, I presume the same 4 person team that showed up at TGA). And, like most flash games, his have never been on any Nintendo system. Yeah... this is pretty much impossible. It's just not significant or important or notorious in any way. I see no reason to add him, or even consider him for Smash. Any boost that the devs might have gotten from Among Us came too late. I have no connection to this character but even if I did I don't think he should be in Smash.

Noms: Agent 47 x10
Madeline Mii prediction: 15.72%

 

[Inue Houji]

And only recently did he get any Nintendo presence, with a collection for the Switch last year.

Uhhhhh...about that


I made this mistake too. The trailer that shows up when you google it is fanmade.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Chances: 0.1%
I don't want to give anyone a zero, but a flash game character I had never heard of until last year... I highly doubt he would happen, as I'd be surprised if Nintendo has heard of him either. And even then, they'd have to want him, over picks who would most likely be more profitable in their eyes. Plus, he would count as an indie character, right? It also seems like they don't want to give indie characters playable roles, which tbh is understandable.

Want: 0%
Like I said, I hadn't heard of him. Is he still fun or cool in my eyes? Honestly, no. He's a stick guy. That's boring in my book, regardless of whatever lolzany animations they could give him. He'd feel like Game and Watch, Wii Fit, or Steve to me, where the character design is just kind of a bland blank slate. I don't like these three that much for this very reason. I'm sorry but there's just so little that spices up their designs, at least for me, y'know?

Nomination: Grunty x10 (I don't fully get how this works, but I assume for now I get 1)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Chances: 0.1%
I don't want to give anyone a zero, but a flash game character I had never heard of until last year... I highly doubt he would happen, as I'd be surprised if Nintendo has heard of him either. And even then, they'd have to want him, over picks who would most likely be more profitable in their eyes. Plus, he would count as an indie character, right? It also seems like they don't want to give indie characters playable roles, which tbh is understandable.

Want: 0%
Like I said, I hadn't heard of him. Is he still fun or cool in my eyes? Honestly, no. He's a stick guy. That's boring in my book, regardless of whatever lolzany animations they could give him. He'd feel like Game and Watch, Wii Fit, or Steve to me, where the character design is just kind of a bland blank slate. I don't like these three that much for this very reason. I'm sorry but there's just so little that spices up their designs, at least for me, y'know?

Nomination: Grunty x1 (I don't fully get how this works, but I assume for now I get 1)

The minimum you get is 5, though you passed the requirements for 10, which is a lengthy writeup

 

[StrangeKitten]

The minimum you get is 5, though you passed the requirements for 10, which is a lengthy writeup

Okay thanks, edited my post to reflect this

 

[GoodGrief741]

Uhhhhh...about that


I made this mistake too. The trailer that shows up when you google it is fanmade.

Oh... So no Nintendo appearance at all? That's even worse. I'd change my score to reflect that, but it was already a zero.

 

[SharkLord]

Heads up, the guy's actually called Henry Stickmin and we've been using the wrong name all this time. Oops.

 

[Inue Houji]

Henry Stickmin
Abstain
Never heard of it until this thread. Kinda weird, as I played a LOT of Flash games during its time.

Predictions
Madeline Mii(I'm assuming Celeste?): 9.2%

Nominations
Rallen x5

 

[Louie G.]

HENRY STICKMIN

CHANCE: 0%
I try not to be this blunt and keep my mind a little bit open, but this is kind of another level of unlikely. No history with Nintendo, not really a particularly iconic character to carry himself beyond that either, I can't imagine he has any presence in Japan... he's from a Newgrounds flash game, which I doubt is on Nintendo or Sakurai's radar whatsoever. Hell even if he had any of those things going for him, it feels like his revival came a lot too late to have any significant impact. I can't really think of a single positive thing to say about his chances. Not a lot more to say.

WANT: 0%
I also don't feel like he has any business in Smash. Sometimes I'll abstain on Want if I don't have any real experience with a series, but I can already tell that I don't have any interest. I guess I can understand the appeal of having a literal stick man playable, at least it sounds like a funny idea, but it's not something that speaks to me and I didn't grow up on his games or anything like that (nor do I like his design, as simple as it is).

PREDICTION:
Madeline Mii - 8.65%

NOMINATIONS:
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10

 

[Ridrool64]

Wait, where’d my post go? Was it not saved?
Anyway...

Chance: 0%, and I say this with absolute conviction. Henry Stickmin is by no means happening. Most likely a character Sakurai hasn’t even heard of. Not today, probably not the next game. Might not make it by Smash 37. The reasons have all been discussed so this isn’t happening.

Want: I was originally going to give Henry a 100% but that doesn’t feel right anymore... 99.999% is about right. I’m gonna be greedy and hold out a branch to my personal never-ever pick. I would take Arle first, but Crash third.

I had something I was gonna nominate but forgot what it was. I’ll do Worms x 10 instead. No predictions.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wait, where’d my post go? Was it not saved?
Anyway...

Yeah if you keep a post in drafts for too long it'll get deleted, had this happen to me with a Miriam moveset because I didn't want to double post

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

I'M BACK BOYS.

"Wait. ahem Wololololo!"
"NARWINI."
Chance: 0%
Nnnnope. I can't see flash games getting into Smash, let alone Henry Stickmin. He has too little interaction with the Japanese in general and Nintendo in particular, and he's not very popular either. The Collection came out too late for FP2. and even if it did, there's nothing saying Nintendo or Sakurai would have heard of it.

Plus I'm not sure how they're going to deal with the boatload of references in the HS games.

Want: 10%
Henry Stickmin belongs in the long list of "characters I like but should not get into Smash." The games are hilarious, I think we can agree on that. But Henry as a Smash character? Mmm, no. I can't see him really fitting in, and, well, stick figures are not the best design. He doesn't really have a lot of moveset potential to me, either.

Nominations:
Remember how Amiya got trashed? Well, get ready for round 2 of "Grimmbat's controversial characters"!
...
Corvo Attano x10
(I literally just made a thread for him as I wrote this. Just imagine...ah the salt!)

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Corvo Attano x10

How is Corvo controversial?

 

[SharkLord]

How is Corvo controversial?

Probably due to their unknown nature, plus the sour reception to their last submission.

I checked in on her day, and good lord Amiya got torn apart. Geez...

 

[Pillow]

I'm an Amiya fan personally! Though if Nintendo really wanted to appeal to Gacha phone players they'd probably opt for Saber, someone from Puzzles & Dragons (legacy) or Granblue Fantasy (popularity).

Same for Corvo. I loved Dishonored but it'd be weird to see him before we get an Assassin's creed character.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It's been over 12 hours since the last response, I think that's a sign we should get to the next day

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Mii Costume: Madeline (Celeste)

Predict Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep

Megadoomer

-----

Some Celeste music for today:

Spoiler: Celeste Music

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Madeline Costume

Chance: 10% Like most Mii Costumes, this is purely a case of 'it could happen I guess' but this being a pretty common suggestion has me thinking it's got a more decent chance than most, especially as we look at the game it'd be from, Celeste is a critically acclaimed gem that's rightfully earned it's reputation and while there was some controversy involving the Japanese localization (The localization team used some pretty ableist language which considering the game, is pretty awful) but after getting a new localization team, the game luckily got patched so that this major issue no longer exists as long as you got the patch. Celeste's praise is found worldwide and rightfully so as Madeline's adventure is genuinely touching, so I feel Sakurai would want to give it a shout out as a result, it's popular enough in Japan to have gotten a full physical release that wasn't handled by Limited Run Games after all.

Want: 100% Holy hell is this an objectively good idea. Celeste is a ****ing masterpiece that I feel everyone should play at least once in their lives. My biggest issue with Madeline being playable is that you'd have to fight her, not just because she's a pacifist, but because unlike most characters in Smash, her issues are very grounded and real, air dashing and spoopy mountain shenanigans being all that makes her unrealistic, this is especially bad because how she hits way too close to home, but a costume isn't actually her so **** yeah bring it on, especially if we get a nice song included.

Zagreus x5
Beatrice x5

 

[Pillow]

Celeste
Chance - 1%
Celeste is a good game, but realistically speaking our first Indie rep won’t be her. She simply lacks the clout that someone like Quote or Shovel Knight has. Honestly I can’t think of much she has going for her beyond the fact that her moveset could be pretty cool which is something Sakurai considers. Sadly in general the thing that indie characters lack is not moveset potential. I’d say her best chance of getting in the game is as a mii costume but even then I’m not really hopeful

Want - 70%
Yeah, I dig her. She’s adorable and she could have a really fun moveset. Shaved some points off for “competing” with other indie reps I want more like Quote, Reimu, and Shantae but I definitely would still be happy to see her.

Edit: whoops didn’t see today was for a costume. In that case

chance -10%
Want - 100%







Noms:
xMax FromSoft

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining. Celeste is something I have on my radar but I don't know when I'll get to it.

TF2 rep: 15.43%
Skullgirls rep x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Celeste
Chance - 1%
Celeste is a good game, but realistically speaking our first Indie rep won’t be her. She simply lacks the clout that someone like Quote or Shovel Knight has. Honestly I can’t think of much she has going for her beyond the fact that her moveset could be pretty cool which is something Sakurai considers. Sadly in general the thing that indie characters lack is not moveset potential. I’d say her best chance of getting in the game is as a mii costume but even then I’m not really hopeful

Want - 70%
Yeah, I dig her. She’s adorable and she could have a really fun moveset. Shaved some points off for “competing” with other indie reps I want more like Quote, Reimu, and Shantae but I definitely would still be happy to see her.

Noms:
xMax FromSoft

We're rating a costume, not the character herself

 

[Pillow]

We're rating a costume, not the character herself

Yeah I realized shortly after. Whoops.

 

[SharkLord]

Madeline Mii
Chance - 40%
Celeste is pretty acclaimed worldwide, especially if we're focusing on indies in general. In the West, it got nominated for Game of the Year at TGA, and in Japan, it managed to become the second-most recommended digital title, second only to Hollow Knight. I'm not sure if Madeline could become the first indie fighter, but as a Mii, sure thing. Though, I'm keeping my rating low because A: We haven't had an indie Mii in a while, and B: Miis in general are just unpredictable, arguably even more than with the fighters.
Want - 100%
Heck yeah, I want a Madeline Mii. Celeste's a solid platformer, and I definitely recommend it. I'm not sure if she can make it as a fighter and she's not at the top of my priority list, but Miis are quick little things and I have no qualms against her getting one. I think it'd be cool if we got a zany moveset built around summoning her enemy Stand Badeline and/or the hazards in the stages, but ah well. I'll take what I can get. Though, I must say that a Celeste stage would be pretty neat, too.

Noms: Ryza x10

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

TF2 rep: 10%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Madeline Mii Costume

5% Chance

See, if we did this around Steve or Min Min, I would have given Madeline a much higher score. We had two Indie mii costumes come in that time period, both with music. It seemed like this sort of optimistic thing to aspire to. But we have not gotten one of these “deluxe” mii costumes that is indie this pass. As a result, I am much less confident that we would get one. Madeline makes sense to get one. I would say that the most likely Mii Costume would be Shovel Knight, but Madeline is in the next tier of indies that getting a costume makes sense. I would say the other ones I would note are Zagreus, Shantae, Madeline, etc.

100% Want

God I loved Celeste. It was my third favorite game in 2018. 2018 had the Spyro Reignited Trilogy, a remake of my childhood games, and Smash Ultimate. Getting third is a high bar for me. It is honestly one of those games I think everyone should play. Its discussion on mental health is expertly woven into some of the most fun platforming I have done in a while. It is like a more realized version of Super Meat Boy. Challenging, but more depth in both the level design and game as a whole. I love it, and would love to see Madeline get into Smash.

Legends Trainer x 10