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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes


Smash Master
Writing Team
Dec 10, 2013
Day 672: Final Predictions for the next game, and goodbyes.

Thanks to everyone who participated this time, we will miss you!

Approved by @NonSpecificGuy

Welcome to Rate Their Chances! This is a reboot of the game played during the Brawl, Smash 4 and Smash 4 DLC Speculation periods.

How to Play
Each day there will be a focus on a specific character or concept for Smash Ultimate. On occasion when the schedule ends up permitting, there will be double days. We shall rate these characters both on how likely we view them and how much we desire them from 0-100%. When posting, you also can nominate characters or concepts to rate at a later period.

RTC at the end of the day is a debate thread and a game. Naturally, it might be frustrating to see one of your most wanted characters have people argue against them or not want them. But at the end of the day, this is all for fun. It’s an attempt to try and figure out how likely something f will be. It’s also a great way to show off your favorite character or something you think is cool.

As a baseline, each poster is given five nominations per day per character that is rated. Abstaining will net the minimum number of nominations that are available that day. If you are providing scores, for your scores and nominations to count you need at least two sentences per score. If you write over a paragraph for each score, you will earn double noms. To make things as simple as possible, five sentences is considered a paragraph for this game.

For example, if it was a double day and you wrote two paragraphs per each character for their scores, you would get 20 noms. If you wrote two paragraphs for a character on a single day, you would get 10 noms.

In terms of getting extra noms, there are a few things that you can do. RTC has a discord server where you can earn extra noms through small tournaments we hold. But the main method is through predicting what chance a character would get the next day. For this, the closest overall guess gets the extra noms equal to the noms they got that day. Getting it within 1.5% and being the closest would earn double noms. Getting within .1% would earn 100 bonus nominations.

1. Characters must originate from a video game. Deconfirmations (Boss Fight, Assist Trophy, Pokémon) mean a character is not able to be nominated until the DLC period.

2. You're allowed to debate but please no flame wars. Also please refrain from non-explanations, as a spirit of debate is encouraged. Do not derail the thread, as that ruins the discussion. Most importantly, be civil, both in your arguments and counter arguments.

3. Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning.

4. Please do not discuss a character after their day has ended. If you wish to discuss a character again start nominating them for a rerate, however please wait at least two weeks before renominating a character.

5. Please avoid counter votes on chance. You are free to disagree but do not rate something negatively to be a jerk. Specifically, counter voting against a character or concept is not

6. After the day ends, participants will have 120 minutes to get final late votes in, unless further discretion is given by the RTC team. After that point votes will no longer be counted.

7. Although you are encouraged to be creative with your posts, please make sure the chance and want scores and nominations are distinctly visible, such as above your explanation. Other options could include bolding your scores to make them easier to see.

8. A character must have a support thread to be nominated. While joke and wtf characters are fine, at least make a support thread in order to further a character’s discussion and make their case.

9. Minor research on a character is preferred. The new day post will have a link to the support thread’s OP. In the support thread, the new day of RTC will also be linked to give members of any character’s support group a chance to argue in their favor. This also means that each support thread bumped on the day they are rated. Other minor things, such as posting a photo of the character and music from their game/games

10. Nominations are locked after a certain point when the next week’s characters are decided. On the last day of this locked in schedule, the next top 7 will be determined. Furthermore, at points at the discretion of the RTC team, the bottom of the nominations list will have purged to ensure that it is easier to keep track of the bond list.

11. Fixed schedules to rerate popular characters and concepts will be implemented after certain amounts of time, usually after a few big reveals or two that could potentially influence a character or concept’s chances. While this fixed schedule will be ultimately decided by the RTC moderation team, user feedback on this is encouraged.

12. Each day will last around 48 hours unless there is activity going on at that time. No day will exceed 72 hours.

13. RTC will have a team of individuals, who will be chosen by the thread runner to help run the thread. Things such as character flavor posts with music, reaching out to support threads, taking care of the noms list, and calc can be a lot for one person, so having a team is encouraged.

Top Ten of Chance

Top Ten of Want
The following users have been put on the ignore list for this thread for repeated violation of the above rules.
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Smash Master
Writing Team
Dec 10, 2013
Current schedule

Day 571: Monokuma (Danganronpa)
Day 572: Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms
Day 573: Qbby (BoxBoy!)
Day 574: Marina Liteyears (Mischief Makers)
Day 576: Neku (The Works Ends with You)
Day 577: Concept: Among Us character
Day 578: Beat (Jet Set Radio)

Noms as of Day 570
Mii Costume: Madeline x325
Henry Stickmin x325
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x285
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x275
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x270
Crazy Dave x260
John Marston x255

250 - 201

Worms x245
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x222

200 - 151

Tetra x200
Mike Haggar x195
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x192
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x185
Concept: Far Cry rep x184
Zagreus x175
Excitebiker x165
Agent 47 x165
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x165

150 - 101

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x150
Riptor x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Estelle Bright x130
Billy & Jimmy Lee x130
Boss: Rayquaza x125
Stage: Bowser's Castle x122
Kaede Akamatsu x120
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x120
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Senator Armstrong x110
Trevor Philips x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108

100 - 51

[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x95
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x95
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Rallen (Spectrobes) x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x61
Ghirahim x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Stage: Tetris x50
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Concept: From Software rep x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
[Rerate] Louie x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Firebrand x1
Last edited:


Smash Master
Writing Team
Dec 10, 2013
Score Rankings (Currently Under Construction)

1. Crash Bandicoot
2. Rex
3. Lloyd Irving
4. Ryu Hayabusa
5. Travis Touchdown
6. Steve (Minecraft)
7. Phoenix Wright
8. Geno
9. Dante
10. Sora
11. Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo)
12. Bandanna Dee
13. Kazama Kiryu (Yakuza)
14. 2B
15. Dixie Kong
16. Master Hand
17. Professor Layton
18. Sol Badguy
19. Lara Croft
20. Yuri Lowell
21. Cinderace
22. Reimu (Touhou)
23. Shantae
24. Agumon
25. Paper Mario
26. Isaac
27. Waluigi
28. Nightmare
29. Axel Stone
30. Master Chief
31. Amaterasu
32. Chosen Undead (Dark Souls)
33. Dragonborn (Skyrim)
34. Tracer
35. Rillaboom
36. Jibanyan
37. Frisk (Undertale)
38. Ahri
39. Farmer (Harvest Moon)
40. Ragna the Bloodege
41. Velvet Crowe
42. King Boo
43. Quote (Cave Story)
44. Sephiroth
45. Ezio
46. Frogger
47. Intelleon
48. Toxtricity
49. Junko and Monokuma
50. Rayman
51. Urshifu
52. Lycanroc
53. Chun Li
54. Kasumi
55. Monster Hunter
56. Chorus Kids
57. Porky
58. Monokuma
59. Poochy
60. Prince of All Cosmos
61. Karate Joe
62. Zhao Yun
63. Black Mage
64. Spyro the Dragon
65. Alucard
66. Doomguy
67. Jin Kazama
69. Gordon Freeman
70. Palico

To Be continued

1. Dixie Kong
2. Crash Bandicoot
3. Phoenix Wright
4. Bandanna Dee
5. Carmen Sandiego
6. Lara Croft
7. Isaac
8. Kazuma Kiry (Yakuza)
9. Terra Branford
10. Axel Stone
11. 2B
12. Chibi Robo
13. Rex
14. Geno
15. Travis Touchdown
16. Master Hand
17. Skull Kid
18. Porky
19. Paper Mario
20. Master Chief
21. Waluigi
22. Arle Nadja
23. Reimu (Touhou)
24. Amaterasu
25. Andy
26. Shadow
27. Shantae
28. Alucard
29. Dante
30. Mach Rider
31. Chun Li
32. Nightmare
33. Gordon Freeman
34. Midna
35. Captain Toad
36. Agumon
37. RAY
38. Saki
39. Professor Layton
40. Bomberman
41. The Heavy (TF2)
42. Chorus Kids
43. Sora
44. Crankey Kong
45. Neku Sakuraba
46. Quote
47. Ryu Hayabusa
48. Ashley
49. Rayman
50. Dragonborn
51. Spyro the Dragon
52. Steve
53. Sol Badguy
54. Elma
55. Adeline
56, Crono
57. Junko and Monokuma
58. The Knight
59. Farmer (Harvest Moon)
60. Hornet
61. Lip
62. Shovel Knight
63. Maxwell
64. Kratos
65. Vaati
66. Karate Joe
67. Lloyd Irving
68. Frank West
69. Prince of Persia
70. Doomguy

To Be Continued.



1. Dixie Kong (64.73%) Day 15: 57.51%
2. Isabelle (53.27%) Day 52: 46.09%
3. Bandana Dee (51.83%) Day 7: 56.64%
4. Rex and Pyra (47.67%) Day 12: 64.69%
5. Elma (45.13%) Day 43: 42.60%
6. Impa (38.98%) Day 60: 26.94%
7. Geno (36.41%) Day 51: 27.31%
8. Shadow (35.74%)
9. Lycanroc (33.10%) Day 65: 37.42%
10. Rayman (32.52%) Day 10: 48.29%
11. Decidueye (28.85%) Day 32: 57.87%
12. Paper Mario (27.02%) Day 19: 32.74%
13. Banjo and Kazooie (25.97%) Day 46: 17.35%
14. Octolings (23.88%)
15. Isaac (20.44%) Day 6: 17.73%
16. Skull Kid (19.71%) Day 34 13.86%
17. Funky Kong (19.34%) Day 71: 13.25%
18. Excitebiker (19.12%) Day 84:19.33%
19. Dillon (19.08%) Day 25: 28.22%
20. Qbby (17.57%)
21. Steve (17.54%) Day 83: 22.34%
22. Lip (16.32%) Day 76: 11.34%
23. Cranky Kong (16.04%)
24. Jibanyan (15.79%)
25. Spyro the Dragon (15.72%)
26. Arle Nadja (15.47%)
27. Phoenix Wright (14.49%)
28. Sylux (14.23%)
29. Marx (13.80%)
30. Celica (13.71%) Day 23: 37.93%
31. Lara Croft (12.80%)
32. Chibi Robo (12.74%) Day 29: 21.26%
33. Mipha (12.02%)
34. Dr. Eggman (11.81%)
35. Travis Touchdown (11.30%) Day 80: 16.54%
36. Crash Bandicoot (11.25%) Day 21:31.04%
37. Professor Layton (11.15%) Day 27: 18.11%
38. Mach Rider (11.10%)
39. Ganon (9.78%)
40. Anna (9.49%)
41. Andy (9.27%) Day 23: 8.87%
42. Doomguy (8.82%)
43. Sora (8.38%)
44. Hades (8.09%)
45. Shantae (7.31%) Day 14: 14.71%
46. KOS-MOS (7.05%)
47. Dark Matter (6.63%)
48. Azura (6.28%)
49. Lana (5.91%)
50. Prince Sable (5.89%)
51. Tethu (5.51%)
52. Agumon (4.67%)
53. Henry Fleming (4.14%)
54. Mike Jones (4.02%)
55. Black Shadow (3.80%)
56. Pyra/Mythra wo Rex (3.75%)
57. Gengar (3.05%)
58. Urban Champion (2.92%)
59. Micaiah (2.66%)
60. Sans (2.34%)
61. Bubsy (0.67%)
62. Brash the Friggen Bear (0.27%)
63. Blue Bowser (0.12%)
64. Lucas - The Wizard (0.11%)
65. Yarne/Owain Tag Team (0.09%)

1. Banjo and Kazooie (70.00%) Day 46: 61.29%
2. Dixie Kong (65.25%) Day 15: 62.93%
3. Bandana Dee (62.02%) Day 7: 71.11%
4. Isaac (59.77%) Day 6: 58.60%
5. Decidueye (57.37%) Day 32: 65.20%
6. Rayman (56.87%) Day 10: 58.25%
7. Skull Kid (54.33%) Day 34 48.87%
8. Rex and Pyra (51.48%) Day 12: 46.10%
9. Crash Bandicoot (51.10%) Day 21: 51.15%
10. Chibi Robo (49.93%) Day 29: 55.47%
11. Impa (49.50%) Day 60: 49.08%
12. Phoenix Wright (49.07%)
13. Isabelle (48.27%) Day 52: 41.76%
14. Cranky Kong (48.00%)
15. Spyro the Dragon (47.46%)
16. Elma (47.43%) Day 43: 60.18%
17. Andy (47.09%) Day 23: 50.20%
18. Octolings (47.04%)
19. Dillon (46.82%) Day 25: 50.34%
20. Paper Mario (46.42%) Day 19: 44.51%
21. Marx (46.16%)
22. Sora (45.63%)
23. Geno (45.40%) Day 51: 43.75%%
24. Celica (43.34%) Day 23: 37.93%
25. Lip (43.23% ) Day 76: 47.18%
26. Dr. Eggman (42.74%)
27. Professor Layton (42.37%) Day 27: 38.41%
28. Gengar (42.17%)
29. Lycanroc (40.86%) Day 65: 41.85%
30. Hades (40.88%)
31. Mach Rider (40.78%)
32. Excitebiker (40.36%) Day 84: 40.45%
33. Funky Kong (40.01%) Day 71: 46.37%
34. Lara Croft (39.30%)
35. Arle Nadja (39.07%)
36. Ganon (38.97%)
37. Prince Sable (36.47%)
38. Qbby (35.80%)
39. Azura (34.56%)
40. KOS-MOS (34.24%)
41. Black Shadow (33.37%)
42. Micaiah (32.24%)
43. Mipha (31.89%)
44. Mike Jones (30.91%)
45. Shantae (30.89%) Day 14: 43.94%
46. Sylux (30.01%)
47. Travis Touchdown (25.26%) Day 80: 29.48%
48 Anna (28.31%)
49. Doomguy (28.28%)
50. Tethu (27.75%)
51. Dark Matter (27.50%)
52. Henry Fleming (26.76%)
53. Shadow (25.76%)
54. Lana (25.21%)
55. Sans (23.91%)
56. Agumon (23.77%)
57. Jibanyan (17. 88%)
58. Pyra/Mythra wo Rex (17.23%)
59. Steve (14.33%)
60. Urban Champion (10.67%)
61. Lucas - The Wizard (9.93%)
62. Bubsy (9.82%)
63. Yarne/Owain Tag Team
64. Brash the Friggen Bear (6.73%)
65. Blue Bowser (3.22%)

1. Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer (84.54%)
2. Music - Final Destination V 2 (SSB4) (83.87%)
3. Arms Newcomer (70.45%)
4. Rhythm Heaven Newcomer (49.94%)
5. Zelda Newcomer (49.33%)
6. Marth/Roy Speak English in Smash 5 (43.62%)
7. New Story Mode (25.60%)
8. Any Skyrim Representation (18.65%)

1. Music Final Destination V2 (SSB4) (81.21%)
2. Zelda Newcomer (74.48%)
3. New Story Mode (72.81%)
4. Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer (66.92%)
5. Arms Newcomer (58.12%)
6. Marth/Roy Speak English in Smash 5 (55.90%)
7. Rhythm Heaven Newcomer (52.88%)
8. Any Skyrim Representation (36.10%)

Base Game Hall of Fame, Confirmed Characters and Concepts
Inklings were confirmed the day this game started.
Daisy: Day 19 15.04% Chance, 29.94% Want
Ridley: Day 2 18.68% Chance, 67.36% Want
No Cuts: Day 42 30.73% Chance, 68.36% Want
Simon Belmont: Day 67 16.67% Chance, 55.70% Want, Day 95 59.37% Chance ,64.07% Want
Richter Belmont never got rated.
Chrom: Day 17 8.18% Chance, 27.51% Want, Day 94 32.07% Chance, 36.19% Want
Dark Samus: Day 78 13.04% Chance, 40.78% Want, Day 95 39.32% Chance , 44.30% Want
King K. Rool: Day 1 48.49% Chance, 73.57% Want, Day 94 63.04% Chance, 78.26% Want
Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer: 84.54% Chance, 66.92% Want

1. Shulk (97.65%)
2. Mewtwo (91.43%)
3. Ice Climbers (90.69%)
4. Greninja (90.11%)
5. Lucas (78.44%)
6. Lucina (68.89%)
7. Wolf (62.21%)
8. Snake (19.57%)
9. Squirtle (13.52%)
10. Ivysaur (11.74%)
11. Pichu (6.15%)
12. Young Link (4.83%)

1. Mewtwo (91.43%)
2. Shulk (88.85%)
3. Greninja (77.98%)
4. Ice Climbers (77.65%)
5. Lucas (77.42%)
6. Wolf (77.20%)
7. Snake (69.13%)
8. Lucina (58.38%)
9. Squirtle (50.90%)
10. Ivysaur (50.63%)
11. Pichu (30.06%)
12. Young Link (17.02%)

DLC Hall of Fame
Piranha Plant never got rated
Joker was scheduled to be rated after the base game in the DLC schedule, but he got revealed first. RIP.
The Luminary never got rated, Erdrick tho: 63.31% Chance, 49.53% Want
Banjo Kazooie: 21.97% Chance, 62.00% Want
Terry Bogard did not get rated, but Concept: SNK rep got 24.94% Chance, 63.06% Want
Byleth: 13.35% Chance, 40.87% Want
Min Min: 54.16% Chance, 73.26% Want

Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass 71.20% Chance, 79.55% Want
Concept: More DLC 50.57% Chance, 88.76% Want
Concept: Second Fighter Pass 40.43% Chance, 94.77% Want
Concept: Stages outside the Fighter Pass 28.06% Chance, 75.35% Want
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep 14.81% Chance, 26.68% Want

Satisfaction Rankings of Confirmed stuff
Base Game

King K. Rool: 94.82%
Ridley: 91.21%
Inkling: 88.06%
Wolf: 87.94%
Ice Climbers: 87.92%
Pokemon Trainer: 87.12%
Snake: 85.25%
Simon Belmont: 84.59%
No Cuts: 83.20%
Richter Belmont: 74.61%
Ken 72.48%
Pichu: 72.14%
Dark Samus: 71.20%
Daisy: 69.30%
Chrom: 63.66%
Young Link: 60.14%
Incineroar 51.12%

World of Light 74.93%
Spirits 46.67%

Terry: 84.39%
Min Min: 82.29%
Banjo and Kazooie: 83.09%
Joker: 79.75%
Hero: 68.57%
Byleth: 58.34%
Piranha Plant 56.60%

Stage Builder: 85.25%
Fighters Pass 1: 75.18%
Last edited:

Deleted member

We back at it already?

(Maybe I should drop this emoji... copying it is getting tedious)


Smash Lord
May 18, 2015
I wasn't intending on things being this way, but I'll leave the RTC thread to you, TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom . Good luck running this thing. As for participating, I won't do that much, sorry.


Smash Master
Writing Team
Dec 10, 2013
This post was initially about the default schedule, but has been re purposed into an archive for previous days.

1. King K. Rool
2. Ridley
3. Veteran: Snake
4. Veteran: Ice Climbers
5. Veteran: Wolf
6. Isaac
7. Bandana Dee
8. Captain Toad and Pauline (Double Day)
9. Takamaru
10. Rayman
11. Krystal
12. Rex & Pyra
13. Veteran: Squirtle and Veteran: Ivysaur (Double Day)
14. Shantae
15. Dixie Kong
16. Concept: Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer
17. Chrom
18. Concept: Arms Character and Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character (Double Day)
19. Daisy and Paper Mario (Double Day)
20. Veteran: Pichu and Veteran: Young Link (Double Day)
21. Crash
22. Lyndis (Lyn) (Fire Emblem)
23. Andy (Advance Wars) and Celica (Fire Emblem)
25. Dillon
26. Midna
27. Professor Layton
28. Waluigi
29. Chibi Robo
30. Shovel Knight
31. Concept: Zelda Newcomer
32. Decidueye
33. Veteran: Shulk
34. Skull Kid
35. Doomguy
36. Anna (Fire Emblem)
37. Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
38. Dr. Eggman
39. Jibanyan (Yokai Watch)
40. Marx (Kirby)
41. Veteran: Lucina
42. Concept: No Cuts
43. Elma
44. Concept: New Story Mode
45. Hades (Kid Icarus)
46. Banjo and Kazooie
47. Sora
48. Dark Matter (Blade)
49. Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.)
50. Ashley
51. Geno
52. Isabelle
52. Micaiah (Fire Emblem)
53. Lana (Hyrule Warriors)
54. Blue Bowser
55. Tethu (Ever Oasis)
56. Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo)
57. Veteran: Lucas...and Lucas
58. Veteran: Greninja
59. Veteran: Mewtwo
60. Impa
61. Concept: Reused Veteran Art
62. Ganon
63. Bomberman
64. Black Shadow and Marth/Roy Speaking English
65. Lycanroc
66. Mike Jones (StarTropics)
67. Simon Belmont
68. Qbby (Boxboy)
69. Spyro
70. Mimikyu
71. Funky Kong
72. KOS-MOS (Xenoblade)
73. Azura (Fire Emblem)
74. Sans
75. Tom Nook
76. Lip (Panel de Pon)
77. Agumon (Digimon)
78. Dark Samus & Sylux
79. Concept: Decloned Dark Pit
80. Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)
81. Urban Champion
82. Mipha (Legend of Zelda)
83. Steve? (Minecraft)
84. Excitebiker and Pyra/Mythra
85. Any Skyrim Representation and Music: Final Destination V2
86. Lara Croft and Bubsy
87. Cranky Kong and Brash the Bear
88. Gengar and Yarne/Owain Tag Team (Fire Emblem)
89. Masked Link and B. B. Bandit Trio (Fossil Fighters)
90. Nintendo E3 Predictions
91. Nintendo E3 Reactions
92. Satisfaction Ratings for Inkling, Ridley, Daisy, Ice Climbers, Snake, Pokemon Trainer, Wolf, Pichu, Young Link, and No Cuts
93. Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Characters Voting
94. K. Rool, Ashley, Captain Toad, Chrom, and Impa
95. Rex & Pyra, Simon Belmont, and Dark Samus
96: Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu
97: Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable
98: Funky Kong, Isabelle, Octolings, and Shadow
99: Bandana Dee and Elma
100: Dixie Kong and Isaac
101: Rayman and Crash Bandicoot
102: Paper Mario and Celica
103: Shantae and Shovel Knight
104: Geno and Dillon
105: Steve and Chibi Robo
106: Banjo Kazooie and Andy
107: Professor Layton and Skull Kid
108: Lip and Travis Touchdown
109: Arle Nadja and Qbby
110: Concepts: Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer, ARMS newcomer, and Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
111: Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil)
112: Slippy Toad
113: Tingle
114: Concept: Smash Run Returns
115: Lloyd Irving (Tales)
116: Concept: Monster Hunter Character
117: Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
118: Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends With You)
119: Fawful
120: Tails
121: Ayumi Tachibani (Famicom Detective Club)
122: Parabo & Satebo
123: Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner
124: Tetra
125: Incineroar
126: 8/8 Direct Predictions and Reactions
127: K. Rool, Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, and Simon Satisfaction Ratings
128: Primarina
129: Labo Man
130: Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
131: Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101)
132: Concept: Female Announcer
133: Saber (Fate/Stay Night)
134: Nihilego (Pokemon)
135: Katrielle Layton
136: Concept: Style Savvy Character
137: Scorpion (Mortal Kombat)
138: Medusa and Tapu Koko
139: Concept: Monster Hunter Stage
140: Concept: Adventure/Story Mode
141: Isaac and Felix
142: Isabelle and Shadow
143: Porky and the Masked Man
144: 9/6 Direct Predictions, Paying Respects to Victims of Earthquake, and Direct postponed
145: Ken and Black Shadow
146: Black Knight and Skull Kid
147: Banjo Kazooie and Geno
148: Lloyd Irving and Heihachi
149: True 9/13 Direct Predictions and Reactions
150: Isabelle Satisfaction Ratings
151: Bandana Dee and Magalor
152: Dixie Kong and Shantae
153: Hilda and Impa
154: Jin Kazama (Tekken)
155: Ninten
156: Terry Bogard (Fatal Fury/King of Fighters)
157: Gardevoir and Concept: Reinhardt (Fire Emblem) gets a Trophy (Double Day)
158: Phoenix Wright (again)
159: Django (Boktai)
160: Nathan Drake (Uncharted)
161: Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User
162: Concept: Hanafuda Newcomer
163: Rowlet
164: Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC
165: Amaterasu
166: Ray (Custom Robo)
167: Thwomp
168: Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes)
169: Concept: No More Stages
170: Concept: Metroidvania-Style Adventure Mode
171: Linkle (Hyrule Warriors)
172: Louie
173: Rick, Coo, & Kine
174: Demille (Tomato Adventure) and Reimu Hakurei (Touhou) (Double Day)
175: Kyo Kusanagi (King of Fighters) and Balloon Fighter (Double Day)
176: Dovahkiin and Concept: More than 5 Unique Newcomers (Double Day)
177: Papyrus (Undertale) and Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE) (Double Day)
178: Edelgard (Fire Emblem) and Boss: Black Knight (Double Day)
179: Snip & Clip and Concept: All Star Versus (Double Day)
180: 11/1 Direct Predictions and Reactions
182: Ken, Incineroar, Piranha Plant, Spirits, and World of Light Satisfaction Ratings
183: Favorite Days of "Rate Their Chances"
184: Most Hype and Least Hype Moments of Speculation
185: Most Hype and Least Hype Character
186: Concept: Season 2 of DLC
187: Deconfirmation Criteria for DLC
188: Melmetal (Pokemon)
189: Edelgard
190: Dixie Kong
191: Bandana Dee and Rex (& Pyra?) (Double Day)
192: Geno
193: Banjo & Kazooie
194: Rayman
195: Steve?
196: Thanksgiving; What are you thankful for in Smash?
197: Erdrick (Dragon Quest) and Slime (Dragon Quest) (Double Day)
198: Sora
199: Sans
201: Shantae
202: Crash Bandicoot
203: Doomguy
204: Travis Touchdown
205: Dovakhiin
206: Celica
207: Lycanroc
208: Chibi Robo
209: Lip
210: Ray MK III
211: Saki Amamiya (Sin & Punishment)
212: Paper Mario
213: Captain Toad and Toad (Double Day)
214: Professor Layton
215: Phoenix Wright
216: Jibanyan
218: Lloyd Irving
219: Heihachi
220: Leon S. Kennedy
221: Concept: Character Alternate Costume as DLC
222: Barbara the Bat (Daigasso)
223: The Prince (Katamari)
224: Chorus Kids and Karate Joe
225: Xurkitree (Pokemon)
226: Master Chief (HALO)
227: 2B (NieR Automata)
228: Merric (Fire Emblem)
229: Quote (Cave Story)
230: Katalina (Granblue)
231: Tails Prower
232: Elma
233: Concept: Echo Fighter DLC (Not one of five in fighter pass)
234: Demille
235: Micaiah
236: Arle Nadja
237: Rhythm Girl
238: Concept: All DLC will be Third Party
239: Hollow Knight
240: Mach Rider
241: Nero Claudius (Fate/Grand Order)
242: Reimu Hakurei
243: Reaper
244: Grovyle
245: Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon representative
246: Concept: Stages outside of Fighter Pass
247: Concept: More DLC
248: Sephiroth
249: Concept: SNK representative
250: Ravio (Legend of Zelda)
251: Dark Matter (Kirby)
252: Andy
253: 2/13 Direct Predictions
254: 2/13 Direct Reactions
255: Ezio Auditore da Firenze
256: Professor Hector (Gyromite/Stack-Up)
257: Shy Guy
258: Arthras Menethil (Warcraft)
259: Concept: 100 characters and Dante
260: Monster Hunter
261: Maxwell (Scribblenauts)
262: Cranky Kong
263: Magikarp
264: Ryota Hayami
265: Concept: Style Savvy representative
266: Concept: No fan-favorites
267: Sly Cooper and Q*bert
268: Concept: World of Light expansion
269: Tracer (Overwatch)
270: Poochy
271: Kat & Ana
272: April Fools Assist Trophies
273: Vaati (Legend of Zelda)
274: Ryu Hayabusa
275: Porky Minch
Joker Satisfaction Ratings
276: Yuri Lowell (Tales)
277: Concept: Boss Rush
278: Bonkers (Kirby)
279: Concept: Undertale representative
280: Brash the Bear (Donkey Kong) and Lora (Xenoblade)
281: Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses representative
282: Black Mage (Final Fantasy)
283: Metal Sonic
284: Tetromino
285: Nathan Drake (Uncharted)
286: Palico (Monster Hunter)
287: Impa (Legend of Zelda)
288: Monokuma (Danganronpa)
289: Rerate: Erdrick
290: Amy Rose (Sonic)
291: Rerate: Crash Bandicoot
292: Frisk (Undertale)
293: Creeper (Minecraft)
294: Freddi Fish & Luther
295: E3 Predictions
296: E3 Reactions
297: Banjo and Hero Satisfaction ratings
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Deleted member

King K. Rool

Chance: 60%
I feel that he's heavily underestimated. Sakurai is aware of the kharacter's popularity and the Mii kostume was defnetly a major bone thrown at his supporters.
Relevance is the only thing that's holding him back.

Want: 95%
I love King K. Rool and I think he could be a very interesting kharakter to play as. However, there are other kharakters I want more, so he's not 100%.

Nominating Waluigi x5

Prediction for Ridley: 30% chance, 60% want
(You'd be surprised at how many people are still holding out hope for him. I feel kinda sorry for them)


Smash Lord
Jun 12, 2013
Charleston, SC
Excited to see this back! I'll draft my first post in a bit (at work), but want to comment on the safe list. Can anyone confirm if the following are silhouetted in the trailer: Pit, Lucario, Ike, and Little Mac. I think they are all plausibly not safe: the former if Sakurai isn't leading, and the rest due to potential replacements and/or lack of relevance. I'm also admittedly kind of iffy on Olimar, but there's been enough Pikmin over the years that I think that fear is probably unfounded.

EDIT: Never mind on ZSS, just remembered Metroid Switch is supposed to be a thing.
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Smash Master
Jul 16, 2014
Switch FC
King K. Rool

70% Chance

95% Want

I really like him and he's in my top wanted. He's still got a decent shot.

Nomination: Lucas x5

Ridley Prediction: 47.86%
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Deaf Smasher
Oct 24, 2009
Chances: 55%

I'm iffy here but if he got ignored in Brawl and Wii U/3DS, there's a possibility he's gonna get it again unless he comes out of nowhere

Want: 100%

More reps for the DK series along with a popular villain and heavyweight? YES PLEASE!

Nomination: Crash Bandicoot x5

Prediciton for Ridley: 25% chance, 85% want


Smash Champion
Aug 12, 2013
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Chance: 50%: Sakurai is aware of how popular Rool is, just by the Mii costume. But relevance hurts him

Want: 75%: Rool has also been a popular request, he could add something unique and Smash needs more baddies anyway.

Doomguy/Doom Slayer X5
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Supersonic Warrior
Nov 4, 2013
King K. Rool

Chance: 80 percent.
Despite relevance and and being a Mii Costume last game, among some other things, I have great faith that he has a chance to get in.

Want: 100%
He is my most wanted newcomer for Smash Bros, and I would love to see him in the next Smash Bros game all the way.

Nomination: Geno x5
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Smash Master
Jan 24, 2015
Oh wow! I love these threads, it's time to try again... I need to check more opinions before doing my guess, but K. Rool would be in a better position this time.

Deleted member

Chance: >25%: Isn't obivous why?

Want: 35%: While Smash needs more villains, and Ridley could be cool, a downsized Ridley would be downright silly
You're not supposed to rate him right now.
It's supposed to be a prediction for his overall want and chance.


♥Smash Beauty♥
Aug 6, 2012
King K. Rool
Chances: 80%
Want: 100%

My votes:
Crash Bandicoot x5
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Deleted member

King K Rool:
Chance: 50%
Mmm.... It is hard to see him likely or unlikely. Sakurai did include a Mii-costume to replace him, and he did lose his chance in the 3DS. Sakurai even heard King K. Rool fans and based him off a Mii costume. So I am sure he has some chance to make it in.

Want: 65%
King K. Rool may not be my most favorite pick of them all. King K. Rool does offer uniqueness with a good potential move-set, a nice veteran that deserves more love, and a nice touch to the DK series in Smash for Switch.

Waluigi *3
Crash Bandicoot *2
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Deleted member

King K. Rool

Chance: 30%

A rather popular kharacter from one of Nintendo's most beloved franchises, who even got the Mii kostume treatment in Smash 4, possibly due to his popularity. Minus points for his lack of relevance in the DK series and Mario spin-offs in the past decade or so. That, and unpredictability in general.

Want: 100%

Prediction: Ridley - 6.5%

There will be overrating.

Nomination: Shulk time! x5


Smash Lord
Jul 7, 2014
Chance: 50%-ish

Realistically, I can't really see him coming in just yet, maybe as DLC later down the line. I do see a new DK character coming in if this is a whole new version of the game, maybe not King K.

Want: 75%

Coming from the old days of Smash 4 predictions, King K is very much wanted by a large section of the smash fanbase, both casually and some of the hardcore players. There is a demand.

Lyndis x 3
Impa x 1
Dark Samus x 1
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The Spook Factor
Feb 12, 2013
Southern California
Just like old times. It feels great to be back!

King K. Rool

Chance: 65%

K. Rool's kind of in an odd spot right now. On one hand, he hasn't appeared in a game since about 2008, missing out an opportunity to join the last Smash game as well. On the other hand, he's certainly iconic enough as DK's main antagonist, references to the character have been appearing more often in the form a costume (and a trophy of course) and the Kritters returning as enemies in Smash 4, his name being referenced in Super Mario Odyssey, has a high fan demand (don't quote me on this, but I recall some people sharing evidence that he placed rather high on the ballot) and he's also got boatloads of weapons and abilities, so it's not like making a good, unique moveset for him would be impossible.

I do feel that a lot of things are in his favor this time, and that he may finally get his chance to join the fight. However, and perhaps this is just how I see it, but it does feel a little odd to think that a character who hasn't been in a game in over 10 years would suddenly make a return in Smash of all things, but who knows. Maybe this will be a first in that regard. If we do assume Sakurai is directing the game again, I highly doubt he will ignore or disregard the character at this point. The question then would just be whether he sees something fun and unique in the character that would work well in Smash.

Want: 100%

My most wanted newcomer, by far.

Ridley Prediction: 3%

Given Sakurai's previous statements on Ridley and the fact that we know hardly anything about the new game so far, I don't expect most people here to think the odds are in his favor, to say the least.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5
Jul 12, 2014
An elevator
Reminders for RTC because it happens every time

1. Chances are subjective. So 20% might be 40% for someone else

2. Argue over chances, but never call someone out over want. That just makes you a jerk.

3. RTC is always wrong anyway and it's all about popularity bandwagons so none of this is super relevan to anything.

With that out of the way
K rool
frankly, I think it's too early for this since we dont even have gameplay and dont know the extent of what smash for switch is, but whatever.

Chance: 10%
Popularity is all he has going for him. Lot's of other factors are in play and it's hard to get by with jsut one.

Want: 10%
Prefer Funky and Dixie WAY more.

Nomination: Palutena x5

"20% might be 40$"
No one called me out over this typo? Y'all are too used to me.
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Deleted member

You need to be specific
Fixed my post, try reading it again.
Sorry if I continue to make any more errors.
Reminders for RTC because it happens every time

1. Chances are subjective. So 20% might be 40$ for someone else

2. Argue over chances, but never call someone out over want. That just makes you a jerk.

3. RTC is always wrong anyway and it's all about popularity bandwagons so none of this is super relevan to anything.

With that out of the way
K rool
frankly, I think it's too early for this since we dont even have gameplay and dont know the extent of what smash for switch is, but whatever.

Chance: 10%
Popularity is all he has going for him. Lot's of other factors are in play and it's hard to get by with jsut one.

Want: 10%
Prefer Funky and Dixie WAY more.

Nomination: Palutena x5
I kind of agree with this actually.
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Formerly "ZeroSoul"
Writing Team
Sep 28, 2014
South Carolina
King K. Rool

Chances: 30%
I unironically think Sakurai dislikes him for whatever reason and has been avoiding him, if he didn't have anything against him I think he would have gotten in by now and if he's the director (seems likely given the tweet) I don't think he's likely. Still, he's so important that I can't really give him any less of a score than 20 and Sakurai might not actually be the director and if he isn't then I think King K. Rool becomes way likelier.
Want: 80%
I don't personally care for the character but he's from a under-represented series and has plenty of fans who've been waiting forever, and it'd make me happy if they got what they wanted.

Predictions: Ridley 18%
Nominations: Dark Matter (Kirby) x5
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N. Onymous

Smash Champion
Jul 20, 2012
Switch FC
K. Rool
Chance - 45%
The DK series is in dire need of more representation, but I don't see it happening for various reasons. He's popular with the fanbase, but with the dev team, who can say?

Want - 70%
I like him, I think he'd make an interesting fighter, but there are other characters I'd like in more than him. (Lip, please, this is all I ask.)


Smash Lord
Jan 19, 2013
Woo, this is back! Let's hope that I can keep my perfect attendance ratting here.

King K. Rool

Chance - 40% - A classic, but no relevancy hurts his chances. Unless he comes back soon, I don't see him as even a coin-flip.

Want - 75% - He's cool, but a lack of connection makes me support him less than most.


Ridley - 67.52% - Oh boy... While he's popular, doubt is starting to creep in.


Anna X5
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Smash Champion
Aug 9, 2016
Somewhere Else
Switch FC
King K. Rool

Want: 100% - I'd love to see more villains overall, and King K. also happens to be my most wanted DK newcomer, though I believe someone like Dixie (who I'd gladly take as well) is more likely.

Chance: 50% - At this point I think it's known how much many would like to see him, but I just have a feeling that it probably won't happen. I want it to, but I think Sakurai will end up with a lot on his plate as usual and focus on other, newer and/or more relevant characters instead. Given K. Rool's popularity and Sakurai's penchant for surprises though, I'm settling on the 50/50 scenario.

Ridley Prediction

Want: 75% - Not big enough
Chance: 5% - Too small


Waluigi x1
Crash x1
Sophitia x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
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Smash Champion
Feb 12, 2015
Pepperoni Secret
Switch FC
Nothing like good old character speculation to put me in a good mood :b::b:

King K. Rool:

Chance: 40%
I’m being generous here. King K. Rool hasn’t seen the light of day since Super Sluggers in 2009, and that was a sports spinoff. He isn’t nearly as relevant as he once was, and he’s nowhere near close enough to be on the level of Bowser, Ganon, or even Dedede.

However, he’s popular, especially among the Smash fan base, and thanks to the little old Smash Ballot, Sakurai and his crew know this. That alone gives him a chance, and it can’t be ignored.

Want: 100%

I voted for the kroc so many times on that Ballot, and I don’t regret a single vote. If there’s any shred of hope that K. Rool could show up as a fighter this time around, I’m riding it to the very end.

Predictions: Ridley: Chance 50%, Want 85%

Nominations: Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
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Smash Master
Writing Team
Dec 10, 2013
Just going to throw this out since I have seen plenty of people make this mistake, but the schedule for March has been posted in OP, please do not nominate anyone from there.


Smash Lord
Jun 27, 2011
Ashley's thread
K Rool
Chance : 40 %
He has the moveset and the popularity but he has been missing from his home series for a long time and get to compete with Dixie Kong who would be easier to add with her body shape similar to Diddy, is just as iconic and is more relevent.

Want : 65 %
I don't really care about his inclusion myself but I'd like him if at least for his fans.

Ridley Prediction : 7 %

Nomination : Marx (Kirby series) X 5
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Deleted member

I actually ran this thread before back during Smash 3DS & Wii U speculation. Twice in fact.

Since this is a thing, I'm going to introduce a model that I will use for rating chances. It's arbitrary but hey, nothing preventing us from rating whatever, right?

A: 100%
B: 75%
C: 50%
D: 25%
F: 0%

So let's get down to our first character.

King K. Rool

: D (25%)

Unless he gets a new game, he's got a large uphill battle to fight for inclusion. By the time the new game comes out, he won't have appeared in ten years and I doubt the sign at Super Mario Odyssey matters much. His only hope is that he ends up performing among the Top 3 Ballot characters (including Bayonetta) and Sakurai actually uses the ballot this time. Otherwise he's out.

That's said, it's him or no one for a 3rd DK character.

Want: B (75%)

Smash should have more villains and K. Rool is a really cool baddie with amazing move set potentials.

x5 Bomberman

cuz he's the best.
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Smash Lord
Apr 9, 2007
Want: 90% Long live the king!

Chance: 20% Dixie Kong pretty much has any third DK spot on lockdown at this point. It will be up to DLC for the King to get a shot.


Banned via Warnings
Oct 12, 2015
Switch FC
King K. Rool

Chance: 60%

King K Rool is not only one of DK's most famous foes, but a consistently wanted character for Super Smash Bros. But relevance holds him back in the end of the day and he still has that Mii Fighter costume too. Either way, he would have a chance if Sakurai takes his Smash Ballot popularity in consideration.

Want: 100%

Easily my most wanted Smash fighter. Once a Kuttthroat, always a Kuttthroat.

Prediction for Ridley:

Chance: 18%

Want: 65%
Jul 7, 2014
New South Wales, Australia
Chance - 45% - K. Rool is a strange character in that Sakurai and Nintendo have referenced and acknowledged him in the past couple of years (Mii Costume and Street Sign) but he hasn't appeared in anything substantially since 2008 and that was a Mario Sports Spinoff. I feel like he has some kind of a chance due to how the Mii Costume proves that Sakurai does know about his popularity (and inklings getting bumped from Costume to character shows that as well) but I think the relevancy really hurts him and I can't really see them adding a character like that. And even if he does get past the relevancy issue we'd have to rely on Sakurai finding him interesting enough to actually put in the game.

Want - 100% - I will not be buying Smash on Switch if K. Rool isn't in it. It's the only reason I'm sticking around the smash speculation scene and he's been my most wanted character for years. His moveset has sooo much potential and DKC desperately needs more representation based on how popular it is and how big of an impact it has had on gaming. I need K. Rool in this game.

Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
Sep 20, 2011
Chicago, Illinois
Switch FC
King K. Rool

Chance: 55%

I am still not super optimistic on his chances since he has many thinsg again him (relevancy, Sakurai's strange view on Donkey Kong Country, etc), but I won't ignore that he is very popular.

Want: 90%

Damn right would love to have him there. Because I am one of him. ~~I won't sing that song here~~

Prediction for Ridley

Chance: 9%

Oooo boy...

Want: 79%
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