Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

predictions for next time around eh? tried to do this earlier but got stuck

well all i can really do is make predictions based on the current state of everything

first things fist 1st parties. with the bigger focus on 3rd parties this one is getting harder but ill have a go
Octolings: people love splatoon and its not going anywhere so i think a second character is inevitable. octolings are the perfect fit what with them being upgraded to co protags now.
Andy: with advance wars revival i think hes got a good shot. provided the series doesnt go dormant again in the interim. heres hoping it doesnt as even though i dont play it i can sympathise
Howard: the protag from astral chain i mean. astral chain did really well so that would put it near the forefront i would think. of course it will probably need a follow up before the next smash to remain that way. and maybe will finally stop referring to them by the wrong name.
Tom Nook: bit less sure on this one but animal crossing is huge and with new horizons being the second best selling game on switch i feel another AC character is more than warranted. and who better than good old tom nook. a tanooki wholl give you house in exchange for seashells
Ring Fit Protag: wii fit came again with this game and if it was enough for wii fit it should be enough for ring fit. Then again sakurai is nothing if not inconsistent

3rd party time
Monster Hunter: monster hunter keeps crossing over with nintendo. i know that didnt matter for DW and the like but monster has done so well. if nothing else i imagine we'll get one those cats who carry your stuff.
Akira: sakurais got a thing for regular fighters atm so perhaps someone from another fighting is likely. so why not the guy who runs around as assist trophy. that is his name right i havent got him mixed up with someone else?
Shovel Knight: he seems to be the go to in terms indie characters for crossovers. plus ATs have had a better record of getting upgraded between games. unless im forgetting something.
Neku: between neo and the whole cult appeal thing i think gives him something of an edge over other SE characters. either that or theyll follow the same pattern they always do with FF and itll be tifia
SMT Character: my gut has shifted and i no longer fancy the odds of getting another sonic character. so ill say these guys as its constantly getting pushed and no one ever shuts up about them. id pick an actual character but i dont know any of them.

HM: the main character of whatever sakurais next game is. as theres no way knowing hes gonna work on next cant really put it with either category. but whoever they may be theyre bound to turn up along with whatever pointless edgey doppelganger sak gives them

well thats that. this thread has been fun for the most part, even though i think i abstained more often than not. and i do apologise for all the times i derailed things. still its been interesting and creepy learning what other people think of certain characters. all i can say is i dont understand any of you. see yas around.

 

[Sari]

I'm gonna make my Final Goodbye post later and just do the most likely list now.

None of these are in any particular order and this will of course age as well as milk sitting out in the burning sun. So for one last time, let's throw out some wild guesses.

First Parties:

• Isaac
  • Nintendo has been on a streak of reviving their old IPs as seen with Famicom Detective Club, Big Brain Academy, and Advance Wars. I can easily see the same happening with Golden Sun too. Isaac is also one of the most requested first parties not yet in the game, even moreso now with Ridley and K. Rool out of the way in terms of highly voted picks.
• Waluigi
  • Another popular character and probably one of the most requested first parties after Ultimate.
• Astral Chain rep
  • I'm gonna say this instead of Officer Howard just in case the next game features a new protag and they go with them instead. Nintendo now fully owns the Astral Chain IP so I can easily see them trying to make it their next big thing.
• Ring Fit Trainee
  • Another popular new IP during the Switch era. Was too late to happen for Ultimate but I can see them making the cut for next game.
• Another Splatoon rep
  • It's still one of Nintendo's most popular series so I can easily see it getting another character. Octolings or a potential new character comes to mind for a spot in the next game.

Honorable Mentions:

Ayumi Tachibana - Her games are considered Famicom classics and they are no longer Japanese exclusive thanks to the remakes. The producer of the games also expressed interest in making a new entry in the series. She was also considered for Melee so the interest is there.

Andy - I can see into the future and the Advance Wars series has done so well that Andy is a lock for Smash 6. This is indeed factual and you should all buy the Advance Wars remakes to make sure that we don't drift into a horrible alternate timeline where this doesn't happen.

But seriously if the remake does good, I could potentially see the AW revival staying and getting a Smash push.


Third Parties:

Yes I am aware that most of these are Western names. But Ultimate has given a lot of love to Western series especially in comparison to Smash 4. We went from little to no Western third party content in Smash 4 to having two characters (three if you count Sora due to Disney) and a plethora of mii costumes based on them. The Western third party gates have been slowly opening and I think we're almost to a time where they will be much more common. And I can't particularly think of that many Eastern series whose chances have improved after Ultimate.

• Dante
  • I think the Dante hype train was too late for Ultimate but I think he'll be right in time for next game. Big character who got a mii costume and was even acknowledged as a popular request by Sakurai himself.
• Any Indie Character
  • The two names that come to mind are Any Undertale/Deltarune character and Shantae. The first one benefits from exploding in popularity in less than a decade. Shantae benefits from being acknowledged as a popular request by Sakurai while WayForward has been getting closer and closer with Nintendo (to the point where they're even working on the Advance Wars remake). Both got deluxe costumes so I think it's safe to say that Sakurai knows that these series have fans.
  • Honorable Mentions for this category include Quote, Reimu, The Knight, and Shovel Knight.
• Crash
  • I'm concerned about how the Activision controversy will affect his chances, since the U.S. government is getting involved and Activision as a whole may be in jeopardy depending on how it pans out. Only time will tell if that changes anything in the end, but if nothing happens then I think Crash is very likely for the next game. A widely popular character who had a successful reboot.
• Master Chief
  • With Microsoft seemingly onboard, I think Chief actually has a realistic chance now. Very popular character and would probably be one of the biggest reveals ever.
• A Ubisoft rep
  • Nintendo has been getting closer to the company with each year to the point where we now have two Mario spin-off games made by them. They also got costumes in Smash which is already a sign that they're on good terms.
  • Right now I'm thinking Assassin's Creed > Rabbids > Rayman in that order. Assassin's Creed is one of their biggest and ongoing series and even got a mii costume in Smash. Rabbids have also been getting a lot of love and even got a mii hat. Rayman's series being dead, his poor status in Japan, and him not getting a deluxe costume (which I thought was going to happen) makes me doubtful of his chances.

Honorable Mentions:

Jonesy - No I'm not joking. Fortnite has become insanely popular to the point where even people who don't play games know what it is. Only time will tell if Fortnite was truly just a fad, but if it continues being popular over the years then I can see Jonesy being the next Steve.

Dragonborn - Another popular Microsoft character (thanks to the Bethesda acquisition) who was acknowledged as a popular pick by Sakurai after getting his own mii costume. Even has a bit of edge over Chief with Skyrim being bigger in Japan. My main concern about him - and this is mostly a hunch - is that I think Sakurai will probably view the costume is fine enough in terms of representation and focus on other names like Chief when it comes to Microsoft characters.

Lloyd/Tales rep - Another popular pick acknowledged by Sakurai himself. With Tekken now out of the way in terms of competition, Tales is shaping up to be the next Namco series for Smash.

Kiryu - Sega has been trying to promote the Yakuza series a lot in recent years. If they keep it up, I can see Kiryu being an easy contender.


Other names I don't feel like explaining: Bomberman, Contra rep, Ryu Hayabusa, Falcom rep.

 

[Golden Icarus]

1st Parties

Octoling: Easy. Whether it's as an echo, semi-echo, or unique fighter, this is a pretty safe bet. Splatoon has quickly grown into something huge and the Octolings have reached the point where they basically match the Inklings in importance.

Waluigi: Seemingly the next K. Rool or Ridley in terms of popularity, only Waluigi isn't fading into irrelevancy, nor is he potentially "too big" or anything like that. Literally just a Mario character that has suddenly become one of the biggest Smash requests. Given that we get at least two Mario/Mario Spin-off characters every game, I feel that it's safe to say we'll see some more next time around. And my god is this not the most obvious choice for the next Mario character. At this point, he has the star power to break the internet, and he's just a ****ing Mario character.

Captain Toad: Like I said, we actually tend to get multiple Mario characters every game. While Waluigi has the insane popularity, Captain Toad has the growing importance to Nintendo. Toads have always been a huge part of the Mario series, but the Captain is out here getting his own spin-off series and completely unique abilities. This was my most confident Ultimate prediction that didn't come true and I continue to believe that Toad has what it takes. Again, it's a ****ing Mario character, so he's always gonna be relevant.

Isaac: Bit of bias here, but Isaac really is a massive fan request and has been for years. Ultimate seemed to include way more fan favorites than previous games and they all seemed to be really well received. Look at the love poured out from fans after Nintendo included Sora. I think that Nintendo recognizes how important it is to please the fans and just how much we appreciate it. I think that big fan requests will continue to be included and Isaac really stands out among them. Also, a sequel/remaster of Golden Sun actually seems really possible, which would be absolutely huge for Isaac's chances, considering how well he's held on to his popularity without any new games.

Bandana Dee: Right next to Isaac and Waluigi as a huge fan request. Beyond Dee's popularity, his future seems hella bright. A lot of the recent Kirby games have been pushing him even harder than Dedede or Meta Knight. He was always the obvious "player four" to the Kirby series, but the Kirby devs almost seem like they want him to be more than that. Sakurai can't ignore the modern Kirby games forever!

3rd Parties

Master Chief: Sounds insane, but this is probably my most confident pick. If Nintendo's partnership with Microsoft continues to go smoothly and if they're willing to pay big Halo money to get Chief in the next Smash, then I think it'll happen. It's just too perfect. Doomguy is great and all, but I think that both Nintendo and Microsoft understand the star power of Master Chief and just how much his inclusion would shake the internet.

Jill Valentine: I feel pretty good about getting something from Capcom as they just have so much to offer and appear to be fairly easy to work with. I was really tempted to put Dante or Phoenix here, as they are both much more popular requests, but Resident Evil is huge. It's way more successful than the likes of Mega Man, Street Fighter or Devil May Cry. Even Monster Hunter has yet to match its success. It holds a lot of significance in the gaming landscape for being the most influential horror series and it even has plenty of history with Nintendo. RE would be a huge pick for the West, but comes from a Japanese company, which I feel makes things a bit easier as this would have that massive Western appeal, without having to communicate overseas.

Leon or Chris are also possible, but I feel like Jill is still the face of the series and holds the distinction of being one of the most iconic women in gaming, which...may not be important, but I figured was worth mentioning as it has become noticeable that every 3rd party character thus far is male (aside from Alex). Also, I'm willing to bet that fighting game enthusiast Masahiro Sakurai is a big fan of MvC2 and would definitely take some influence from Jill's moveset in that game.

Ryu Hayabusa: Koei Tecmo just has to get something eventually, right?...right? Really though, while I was wrong about Hayabusa being included as DLC, I still feel really good about his chances going forward. He never really was the most "relevant" character, or even an exceptionally popular one, but a legacy character. Ninja Gaiden will always be one of the defining series of the NES and Hayabusa will always be one of the most recognizable characters in gaming. Even today, Ryu's still involved in NG, DoA, Warriors, and even Nioh, which has become Team Ninja's new breakout series. I'm confident that he will continue to represent KT as a company, and I'm just as confident that KT will continue to be one of Nintendo's most important partners...this really is a matter of time.

Also, he makes more sense for base game anyway. He's way more of a Mega Man or a Simon, than a Cloud or a Sora.

Arle: Right next to Capcom, I feel like Sega has a good shot for the next game, as they also have tons of big IPs and appear to be fairly easy to work with. I really want to put a second Sonic character here, but my intuition is telling me not to count on that. Puyo Puyo has that big 'ol Japanese presence and Arle is crazy popular over there. Puyo Puyo has been very consistent in its success and has even steadily built up a cult following in the West. As far as Eastern picks go, I feel pretty good about Arle.

Alucard: One of my weirder picks, but one I feel pretty damn good about (if Sakurai is developing the next game). Castlevania may sound like a random series to have three playable characters, but I don't think it's much of a stretch. It holds plenty of significance in the gaming world, and honestly, the Castlevania games preceding Symphony of the Night are practically from a different series. SotN is the entire reason we have the term "MetroidVania" and Alucard represents this era of Castlevania, while the Belmonts represent the classic era of action platformers. I don't think that the existence of the Belmonts in Smash make Alucard any less likely.

We've seen that Sakurai loves to revisit old ideas and he made it very clear that he ****ing loves Alucard and almost included him over the Belmonts. It's easy to see, as Alucard's character design seems right up Sakurai's alley (edgy sword boy with long beautiful hair). His rather versatile assist trophy makes me believe that Sakurai has more than a few ideas for his moveset and I'm sure that he would love to work him into a playable fighter.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Doubt I'll get many (or any) right, but it's fun to guess, isn't it? Next game, whatever it is, whenever it is, may be years away anyways.

First party
I'll preface by saying that there's probably going to be more characters introduced between this game to the next that may gain more notoriety. But again, it is fun to just guess, so we'll do with the current ones.

Waluigi
Certainly one of the characters to make the most noise during this cycle. While he wasn't acknowledged in any way by Smash proper, even during DLC, I feel that for the next time they'll be able to take how things went during this game more.

Isaac
Feels like he was super close this time. So this is a "maybe next time?" kind of deal. I do think he might need a new game of sorts to gain more notoriety, but as it is, it's a possibility. He's been around for a while.

Ashley
WarioWare remains to be around, the Switch game seems to be doing pretty well too. I don't see any reason to think the series could leave as it is. Ashley while not seeming that good for DLC, seems pretty good for a base game pick.

Bandana Waddle Dee
I'm still a bit surprised he missed the boat, since he seemed like a pretty big request, and a reasonable character to add as the next Kirby one as well. But I guess that's how these things go. I don't think Kirby's lost any momentum, nor will it probably lose any until the next game, so I'd say he's a possibility still.

Rhythm Heaven character
This is my biggest shot in the dark for these. It feels as though they really did miss the boat sometime ago so maybe they could return to the idea in a new game. Certainly would help if Rhythm Heaven got something new along the way as well, which I think could happen eventually.

Third parties

Bomberman
Long-standing character, moderate fan request, Assist Trophy, Spirit and Mii Costume all in one game, I think he's got a pretty good shot for the next game. What would stand in his way would be if Snake of the Belmonts were to be cut, or simply made a higher priority, but as it is, I feel like he's "next in line" for Konami. Similarly, I could see Alucard being a reasonable guess.

Doomguy
This is more than anything going on him being acknowledged, even if it was at the very end of DLC. I found it a nice gesture. I don't think it's a surefire thing but with how important DOOM is, I could see it being a possibility next game.

Reimu - Indie character
I think the more time passes, and as these games keep getting bigger, these feel more and more like possibilities. Just this game we got Shovel Knight in as an AT proper which was pretty nice, and of course who could forget the bone costume. If you were to ask me, I'd put it on Reimu, but I think other characters like Quote, Shovel Knight or Frisk would make a fair bit of sense as well.

Rayman - Ubisoft character
They've been around Nintendo for long, and as of recent they've been comfortable enough to make stuff like Mario + Rabbids, even going for a sequel. I guess it's no surprise, but I mainly guess Rayman due to his seniority both within the community and with Ubisoft. Ezio, the Rabbids or even the Prince would make sense as well, for their own reasons. Sadly, I do think Rayman has it pretty tough at the moment, but hey, he's around still. Though it may be tougher with time, we'll have to see how it is then.

Arle
Puyo Puyo's been around a while, it still remains getting new games, and it's also been gaining lots more traction outside of Japan. I think she's on the more small side of things despite everything, but she seems pretty reasonable for the future.

Looking at these, it does feel like they were just the same guesses I had for this game, which is pretty funny. I never learn. They could all end up missing the boat but I'll leave them as is. For the third parties, I put my "main" guess for the more vague ones, so I leave them less vague.

Well that's that I suppose. I didn't post in here too frequently, and sometimes I took breaks when I was busy, but it was pretty fun to even just lurk posts or try to write for characters that I just liked. I wasn't too concerned about the track record or anything as I went, but it was pretty fun, and I've seen some really good posts made in here as well through the time I've been reading the thread.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the part where I explain my history and thoughts on RTC, and how it has personally impacted me. This thread has been a big part of my life throughout the past 3 years so I'm gonna make this one last, big hurrah for myself, and to pay respects to this incredible thread.

My account was created on March 5, 2019. On the same day I explored Smashboards for the first time. I noticed there was a newcomer speculation section which intrigued me as during this time I was really getting into the speculation scene. I was watching videos like PapaGeno's speculation videos and BillyBo10k videos, such as his RTC ones. This was the first time I had heard about this thread, and so when I saw it pinned at the top I was like, "Hey I've heard about this thread, it seems like a cool place to be." And thus, I viewed the thread and quickly got acquainted with the format. I wanted to join in on the fun so I wrote my very first rating which was on Magikarp's day:

Magikarp

Chance: 1%
What could Sakurai possibly do to give him a viable moveset? It's unlikely that there won't be another joke character and if they were going to add another pokemon, it's going to from 8th gen. If it had to be another 1st gen rep, other pokemon like Gengar would be much better candidates.

Want: 5%
While Magikarp would be hilarious, he would just be a waste of a spot. Revealing him after Joker would be a big disappointment and I want other franchises to get represented. And he would not add much at all in a game already filled with pokemon and joke characters.

And thus history was made. I continued to write ratings although I didn't do noms for a while since I didn't know how they worked and I just didn't feel the need to push for certain characters. I just relished in the excitement of discussing different characters and sharing my passion for certain characters that I had history with.

One thing I'll say is that I'm not a fan of some of my early writeups. I didn't fact check and some of the logic I used in the ratings were off. The biggest example of this was with a certain character, I forgot who it was, but it was a character that's popular in Japan but obscure in the West and I saw the debates going on about how it's important for a character to be recognizable in multiple regions. Now instead of bringing up a reasonable point like Smash's bias towards Japanese characters, I brought up a character to prove that characters obscure in the West can still be considered by Sakurai. The problem is that the individual I chose to base my argument on was.......Takamaru. I got roasted for that.

But I did improve my ratings over time. My first major write up was for Crypto who is someone who had a very low chance, but who I am very passionate about as I believe he could bring a bunch of unique things to Smash when it comes to the style of the game, the moveset, and music. Four other ratings that I'm proud of are my Bill Rizer essay, Dragonborn writeup, Klonoa writeup, and Dynasty Warriors writeup. When it comes to Bill Rizer and Dragonborn in particular, I was loudly campaigning for them because I saw their potential as candidates, but there was a lot of silence around them. So I spoke up and made the case for them. Hopefully my writeups managed to turn some heads. I could also say the same thing about Dynasty Warriors but I didn't really start to support this series until recently. But anyway this is a large part of why I fell in love with RTC, because not only do I have a place to have my voice heard, but I can show others why these characters would be a big deal and why they would be a fun inclusion. I had so much fun thinking of ideas for the moveset and sharing music.

Another major reason why RTC is so special to me is because it introduced me to so many new characters and series, it's crazy. On the top of my head these are the games that I got into because we were rating them and I got curious enough to do research:

• Hotel Dusk: Room 215
• Banjo (Before he was revealed)
• Famicom Detective Club
• Phantasy Star Online
• Tales Of
• Soul Calibur (Now one of my favorites)
• Sakura Wars

And there are other series like Touhou and Falcom's games that are on my radar and want to get to someday. Before RTC, I thought I knew a lot about games, but since then I've pretty much doubled my knowledge on gaming. It is such a cool experience when a name on here pops up that I've never heard about, and then fans of that characters come in here and explain who they are and what they can bring to the table. The amount of writeups that have sold me on a series is more than I can count. I am so grateful that we have so many passionate fans on this site in general who are chill. I've had a lot of conversations with people, just talking about games and the different aspects about them like the soundtrack and gameplay.

I just want to thank TCT~Phantom , Sari and GoodGrief741 and anyone else responsible for running this thread for giving me a space where I can have silly debates on the internet in regards to what characters could appear in a crossover game. Thank you for giving me so many memories, and thanks to everyone who participated in this thread and helped to make it an informative and wholesome space. Thanks to RTC, I got to spread support for the characters that I care about and learn about so many cool video game series that otherwise I may never have discovered. In here, I also got to make some new friends along the way. And I also want to take a moment to say thanks to Sakurai and co. and Smash Ultimate for making my dreams come true. Seeing my favorite games like Metal Gear, Castlevania, Minecraft, and Xenoblade 2 clash is a surreal experience.

And with that, I say farewell to my favorite thread. I'll definitely come back for when Smash 6's RTC thread pops up. I could certainly use the break, but when the time comes, I'll be right back in the action. I'll still be around the site, mostly in the social thread. Although when it comes to how active I'll be on here....is something that I'm unsure about.

For now, goodbye....

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Whelp, this is it. It's been a long journey, but before we get to the goodbyes, I'll do the ratings.

First Parties

Waluigi - An easy one, had some of the biggest fan outcry post-deconfirmation and Nintendo has given special mention of said outcry (along with an increase in Waluigi exposure in general). With a fresh speculation cycle, Nintendo's awareness of the demand, and the possibility of Sakurai not working on the next game (he had some rather stupid reasons for keeping Waluigi out) I think he has a strong shot going forward.

New Switch-era IP (Astral Chain/Ring Fit) - Another easy one to guess, these two missed the boat for this game but could easily be chosen by Nintendo for the next one. I personally think I'm jumping the gun a bit since they're just a year or two old and we don't know how they'll stand the test of time. But even if they don't, Nintendo could choose to try and attempt to revive them ala ARMS. Either way a safe bet.

Another Splatoon Rep - An obvious choice, with Splatoon 3 around the corner and this series looking to continue for the forseeable future, I wouldn't be surprised if we got another rep next game. Not much to say here.

Bandana Waddle Dee - Gonna be a little more daring here, but we're long overdue for another Kirby rep, and with Sakurai possibly not working on the next game there won't be any kind of bias keeping him out. Combine that with his ever increasing presence in main series Kirby and you've got a solid prediction!

Tom Nook - Animal Crossing's always been popular, but with the mega hit that New Horizons was I feel that Nintendo will want to keep that momentum going. He plays a significant role in the franchise, is familiar to new players due to being the face of New Horizons, and is indisputably the next most popular request for the next Animal Crossing rep.


Third Parties

Dragonborn - While the Microsoft acquisition gives him more competition, Dragonborn has a few things that give him the edge. He has content in Smash already via his Mii costume. And he was one of the four that got a special mention from Sakurai. Clearly there's a lot of non-vocal fan demand for him and Nintendo is aware of it. While by comparison, Halo got no content and Doom Slayer, while getting content like his Bethesda buddy, has tons of overlap with Master Chief, who Microsoft would likely choose first if they wanted a green space marine with an extreme importance to the history of FPS games. Both Bethesda and Microsoft have strong relationships with Nintendo now, so I can see this continuing on to the Switch's successor.

Dante - Another character that sorta missed the boat, his costume was also among the bunch that Sakurai has given special mention to. His popularity skyrocketed in 2019, and Nintendo now has Devil May Cry games that they could market alongside Dante. One of Capcom's bigger franchises, his only big worry is Monster Hunter, providing they don't triple dip on Street Fighter. He could happen!

Any Indie character - Hard to pick just one as there's tons of options on the table, many of which Nintendo clearly favors, and this game has shown that indie content is on the rise! Quote remains a big historical pick, Nicalis has a good relationship with Nintendo (toxicity aside) and Cave Story's always readily available on Nintendo's platforms. Shantae is ongoing, has a strong Nintendo presence, and was among the Miis that got the special Sakurai comment on their popularity. Shovel Knight stands strong and got an assist, even getting published by Nintendo in Japan! Deltarune is continuing on and likely will be complete by the next Smash game, so alongside the Sans Mii Costume the door is open to both! Either way, a very difficult choice!

Lloyd/Tales of - The final Mii to get the special Sakurai comment, Lloyd's been a big request for years and Tales of remains extremely popular in Japan. Plus with Tekken out of the way Tales is now Namco's frontrunner. Simple and clean!

Crash Bandicoot - Alongside loads of fan demand, the games have continued to release on Nintendo systems and Activision has expressed interest in Crash getting into the game. As long as this momentum continues into the next game, I definitely think it could happen! And he's the clear frontrunner for the company!

Alongside these contenders, honorable mentions for third party go to: Master Chief, Doom Slayer, Arle Nadja, Aiai, Eggman, Kazuma Kiryu, Chosen Undead, Phoenix Wright, Monster Hunter, Ezio, and The Rabbids!


With all of that said, this is the last day of Rate Their Chances, and thus the final post! Back in mid 2019 I was (unnecessarily) stressed about Smash speculation and needed to be in the know by reading discussions. While I got sick of the same characters being discussed all the time I came across this thread, and it looked super fun! There was tons of character variety, and the nominations system allowed me to make a good case for some of my favorite characters! Ones that often got little to no discussion. Even after I finally dumped the General Speculation thread after Byleth (I forced myself to ditch the often frustrating discussions there after FP5, the original ending to the DLC) this is the thread that kept me on Smashboards. With the exception of a few days, this thread was always very chill and fun, the discussions were great, we got to share our passions for our favorite franchises (even if you guys needed to slow down a bit in regards to one particular franchise xP) and I got a chance to really improve my analytical skills! I've never considered myself a good writer, but all of the practice I've gotten here has really helped me grow in that regard! Even if I don't play Smash anymore I really cared about how good my analytics were!

But most importantly, I can't thank this thread enough for all of the wonderful memories made throughout the past couple of years, I never expected myself to become a regular here! But the wholesome atmosphere encouraged it to become a major part of my life during these past couple of years! And I can't be thankful enough for all of the friends I have made, like TCT~Phantom , Sari , GoodGrief741 , DanganZilla5 , and many others! Really, all of you, thank you! Life wouldn't be the same without you!

And with that, this is goodbye. Once the forum officially locks I will log out of Smashboards for the final time and bring this era to a close. But I won't be gone for good, and if you want to contact me outside of Smashboards send me a DM!

Long live RTC!

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Well here I go, one final time for this thread.

First party

Waluigi
This guy's demand has blown up so much since his AT deconfirmation I'd say he's easily the most wanted first-party right now, at least among the casual crowd. Being a well known Mario character kinda does that. Plus they already have a model for him they could build upon. Look, Waluigi has become so popular it would be absolutely tonedeaf to still have him be an AT next game. Underground Mario quality controll team be damned!

Officier Howard
Astral Chain did pretty decent and it could easily become a series. After Ultimate's DLC cycle, first parties haven't been looking that hot and the Howard twins with their multiple standohs and flashy movepool could leave a good impression again. It's a spanking new Nintendo IP that I could see Sakurai in particular pushing for.

Ring Fit trainee
Ring Fit Adventures sold about a gazillion units so the IP probably won't have to worry about its future regardless if the next system belongs to the Switch family. Wii Fit Trainer honestly made this a bit predictable lol, if that character never got in Ring Fit wouldn't be talked about nearly as much or as seriously.

Bandana Waddle Dee
Yeah my boy's popularity I see being strong enough to have Dee land into the next base game. I'd say he'd get silver when put next to Waluigi as far as first parties go. Kirby's way due for more representation, Forgotten land will strengthen that feelling, and Bandana Dee will continue to be the frontrunner. He's likely not going anywhere so recency won't be much of an issue. Sakurai will continue to be a factor sadley but I feel he has to cave in eventually, he's done so for other characters.

Mii spellcaster
Some may not like it but I can see it happening. Adding a forth class would expand costume potential even more since this way you could represent people like Black Mage, Kamek, FE mages and Ralsei without attaching some awkward moveset on them that doesn't fit with them. Since costumes are also a huge part of DLC cycles it would mean even more costume revenue., which Nintendo would definitely be a fan of.

Third party

Leon Kennedy
Yeah, Capcom also has DMC, Monster Hunter, Ace Attorney and Chun Li but Resident Evil is the biggest series from a Japanese dev not yet on the roster. Seriously, it was huge even before it's slew of new games since 2017. It's iconic and hugely popular in the west. Not sure about it's eastern popularity but I can still see it happening regardless. There are multiple protagonists they could choose from but I'll go with Leon since he's the most popular protag from the most popular game in the series to my knowledge. That's how Cloud got in, right?

Travis Touchdown
Nintendo has huge stock in the series, with every NmH game being playable on Switch. More important is that I've heard that Suda51 would basically give Sakurai Travis on the house. This would feel like a natural evolution from getting a Mii costume.

Rayman
For as long as Nintendo and Ubisoft stay close, Rayman remains in the running. And yes, I still think it would be him over a Rabbid or AC protag. Ubisoft clearly hasn't been opposed him and I see him being one of the few characters whose fan demand could carry him across the finish line.

Ryu Hayabusa
NES classic to who a lot of people have warmed up to. The Ninja Gaiden 3D trillogy is now on Switch and Nintendo and Koei Tecmo are pretty close so he just makes sense. Could basically be the Simon Belmont of the next game.

Undertale/Deltarune rep
You've got your Reimus, your Shantaes, your Quotes and Shovel Knights but as far when it comes to picking the Indie character that would grab the attention of the largest amount of people, they'd be crazy to not look Toby Fox's way. The sheer magnitude of the popularity and impact of these games should be more than enough to make them roster worthy and the continued development and releases of Deltarune episodes ensures these games won't fall into dormancy, keeping them relevant by the time the next project plan starts.


And I guess that wraps it all up. This thread was pretty fun, we should do that again some time. Look I'm bad at making huge writeup sendoff posts but for as much as I'm relieved this thread is over and done with part of me will miss this thread BUT MY AIM IS GETTING BETTER. I won't be leaving this site or anything though. I'll post far less frequently of course but I'll probably still be lurking the upcoming "Next Smash" thread, continuing wasting precious time I could be spending playing videogames and you can bet I'll be there day 1 of the next installment of the RTC series so look forward to that.
Thanks you to eveybody but myself for just making this thread a lively and memorable place. There wer some dissagreements and chaos to be had here and there but overall, this thread had a little something for everyone.

Well everybody, good luck out there and see you later!

 

[Lyncario]

I haven't done the satisfaction ratings, so here's a big (or at least semi-big) one for sending things off for me. Too late for the calcs to be done, but eh, I just do those for fun anyway.

Inkling + game reveal

Satisfaction: 95%

A new Smash game was huge of course, and Inkling was both the most expected and best character to reveal alongside the game. The silouettes and giant Smash emblem were incredibly cool too. An incredible way to start the game's cycle.

Everyone is here!

Satisfaction: 100%

Snake? Snake! SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!

Yeah, he was the big one for me here, though Bayo and Cloud were also both incredibly huge comebacks for me. And the trailer was just so amazing. I just don't have anything else to say, perfect E3 trailer.

Alpharad: post a photo of Daisy Ridley Those two characters will never be in Smash! E3:

Satisfaction for Daisy: 85%

I'm one of those people that actualy like Daisy and I wanted her to be playable in some form, and I did not care if she was unique or a clone echo, so I was more than cool with this.

Satisfaction for Ridley: 85%

I did not care all that much about Ridley, but that trailer was amazing, and his moveset looked so fun and brutal. I din't have much connection to Metroid, though I did play Zero Mission and Fusion a bit, and I bought Dread recently and enjoyed the begining so far even if the EMMIs keep killing me.

Bloody Tears

Satisfaction: 90%

One of my favorite reveal trailer, and both Simon adn Richter at once was amazing, especialy with how the Dracula's Castle stage looked. Alucard being there as an AT was super nice to see too.

Metroid Prime 2: echoes-oooooooooh

Satisfaction: 70%

Dark Samus being added was nice, even if I don't have much of an attachement to her. Massive props to the remix that was revealed alongside her tho, this violin rendition of Birnstar's Depths is just amazing.

He got his chance this day

80%

Kinda similar to Daisy, though I did not want Chrom as much as her.

Is this Hoenn because of the horns of Unova because it's an alligator?

Satisfaction: 75%

K.Rool was an ok addition, but I did not like him being added nearly as much as most people, probably because I played DKCR over DKC, since I'm one those gorsh darned zoomers. He looked ok, pretty fun, and with an alright moveset, and his theme was good, though not nearly as good as the Brinstar's Depths remix that was alongside Dark Samus imo.

Dog.

Satisfaction: 70%

"That's nice. She looks cute in Smash.". That was my reaction, pretty much. Not much else to say, except that she's a good girl, and I honestly don't get why so many people were angry about her joining for whatever reason, like really they just seemed mad something recent was in Smash morre than anything else. She also never looked like she was playing that much like Villager to me. Sometimes I just don't get people.

Box beats Grinch

Satisfaction: 85%

I wasn't nearly as mad as most people. I was ok with there only being 2 more characters, and I was also ok with Incineroar, even if fighting him infuriates me now online. Ken tho, I found him super hype, I wanted to play him so bad, too bad I sucked at playing him and Ryu for a long time.

Plant Gang

Satisfaction: 80%

Now that was comedy. Just a very funny reveal, that got me to laugh. For the record, I am indeed pro-Plant.

Jokaro

Satisfaction: 85%

He was my main for a long time and I loved Persona/Atlus being in Smash, but there was and still is that sour after taste of no SMT content in Smash at all. If Demi-Fiend would also be in Smash before him, then he would be at like 95%, but that sour taste is just that right now, sour.

I need a Hero

Satisfaction: 90%

Hero looked super fun to play and represented the most important series for one of my favorite genre, so I was all in for him joining. There being alts for Luminary, Erdrick, Solo, and Quatro made him even more awesome.

Eggs

Satisfaction: 70%

Hey look, another character I was pretty passive about because he pretty much died with his series before I was born. Funny how that works. But it was still nice for his fans, though he's infuriating to fight online, though not as much as most heavies or ZSS.

Okay!

Satisfaction: 95%

Now that's an amazingtrailer, moveset, and pack. Terry bringing 50 tracks was amazing, and his moveset was so fun, even if I couldn't play Ryu and Ken very well. The very first S tier dlc character in Ultimate for me.

Now that's comedy.

Satisfaction: 85%

Byleth's reveal trailer got me to laughs very hard, and I love 3 Houses so I was more than ok with this. Also the reactions online were ranging from cringe to hilarious. The only downside was how multiple FE fan sites were attacked by salty anti FE smash fans, making being an FE fan very hard in that itme period, but that's not because of Byleth, and I know that very well.

Boyoyoing

Satisfaction: 65%

It's nice to have a new 1st party series getting a playable character in Smash. Also Arms music is nice. Otherwise, I find Arms boring, and Min Min, while pfun to play, is very annoyign to fight. The lwoest point of the dlc for me.

Creeper? Aw, man.

Satisfaction: 85%

I like Minecraft, and I like how Steve and Minecraft were both represented in the game, and the stage is great. I also don't mind fighting Steves online nearly as much as some people do, so that's good for me I guess.

He will never be a memory

Satisfaction: 100%!

Sephiroth or Tidus as a second Final Fantasy character were in my top 10 most wanted for the game, and I also saw them as the most unrealistic of my top 10. And well, here we are, Sephiroth is in the game, in spite of me still having a hard time believing that it actualy hapened. Amazing trailer, especialy with how OWA kicks in, only for the trailer to recreate scenes from Advent Children, whichwas amazing to watch (even if not live). And amazing moveset too, he became my new main soon after releasing. In the end, expected 100% for who was one of my most wanted.

Aegis or Baeblades?

Satisfaction: 85%

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a great game in spite of what apearance leads some to believe (by that I mean both the anime style and the character design of Pyra and Mythra), Pyra and Mythra are better characters than Rex, and this satisfy me that they're in to represent this great game. Mythra is especialy fun to play from time to time for me.

Smash players don't play fighting games

Satisfaction: 94%

Kazuya joining was almost as good as Terry joining for me. First of, he has an amazing moveset, but also so huge, which is fitting since every characters have like 80+ moves in Tekken 7. Also one of the biggest names added to Smash, and he represents one of the biggest fighting games series of all time too, which is great. He was especialy surprising since Heihachi already got Mii'ed. An amazing reveal for E3 for sure. Also, 39 tracks, all great, that's amazing.

Time to close this final door.

Satisfaction: 100%!

While I haven't played Sora yet, he was one of my top 3 most wanted for this game, making so that it's the biggest dream come true for me in this game. And man, what an impossible dream this felt like, even if I never lost all hope for Sora, even after Sephiroth joined, it still feels like a dream in a way. And of course, he looks so fun to play too, i can't wait to play him. And Hollow bastion as the stage? Hell yeah, that's a way better choice than Destiny Island or Traverse Town imo.

So in the end, I found Ultimate to have amazing reveals in general, and even if my true top picks did not get in, Sora and Sephiroth are already enough of dreams come true to more than make up for that for me.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

First Party

Waluigi - Pretty simple, Waluigi is the closest Nintendo have to someone like Ridley or K. Rool, a character who can lift the roof. His history in Smash speculation isn't as extensive as those two's since hope for him tends to be swatted pretty swiftly, but there can be no doubt about the demand for him, and a new chance at making a base game is the perfect opportunity to include him.

Bandana Waddle Dee / Other Kirby Character - Kirby is only growing, and I expect The Forgotten Land will be a huge success that'll keep the series trending upwards. Bandana Waddle Dee is the logical next choice, especially with a strong history of fan demand (notably during the ballot as well), but we can't discard the possibility of a new character, or an old one given new importance, leapfrogging him.

Zelda Character - I hate to do these catch-all predictions, but with this one it's really difficult to pinpoint anyone in particular. Much like Kirby it's felt like Zelda has been due a newcomer for a while, and I think next game will be the time. Whether it's a BotW 2 rep, a character from a title even beyond that, or an old one, a Zelda character is going to be one of the bigger first party characters they could include regardless of who exactly it is. If you put a gun to my head, my current guess would be Skull Kid, but that's largely because I don't know what the future's going to hold for the series and whether the newest game in whichever year the next Smash comes out has any feasible candidates.

Isaac - I'm very much banking on Golden Sun returning in some form before the next game with this choice, if that doesn't happen it'll probably be the same old story with Isaac, but I think we'll see Nintendo beat off the dust of a few of their old IPs in the next years, and Golden Sun is one of the prime candidates. If that happens, then Isaac becomes a Little Mac for Smash 4 tier shoe-in, with his heavy fan demand there'd be no reason for him not to make it. But that is of course still a big 'if'.

Octoling - A bit of a boring one that I think everyone is going to predict, but it's hard to see Splatoon not getting a bigger presence on the roster next game, similarly to how Animal Crossing got it with Ultimate. I don't know a lot about the series, so I'm just going with the name I recognize here.

First Parties have become very difficult to predict, what's relevant now won't matter by the time the next Smash rolls around, and since we already have most of the classic Nintendo characters, I expect the majority of first parties will be from games that aren't out yet, or that we may not even know is in development. There are also potential revivals to account for, for all we know Mike Jones may be considered a shoe-in by the next game after a hugely successful StarTropics sequel, or something similarly crazy. I feel like characters such as Akira Howard, Ring Fit Trainee and Raven Beak will go the way of Elma and Celica. they seem like natural inclusions right now, but that likely won't be the case in 3-6 years.

Third Party

Crash Bandicoot - Ultimate doesn't feel like it's really missing any specific characters in the same way that Smash 4 did, but Crash is probably the one that comes closest. It remains to be seen what happens with Crash between now and the next installment, there's a part of me that fears that Activision are going to put the series on ice again, and so Ultimate may have been the best time for him. Regardless, Crash does have a strong enough legacy that he may not need to be relevant, it could very well be a situation like with Mega Man in Smash 4.

Sol Badguy - I'm actually pretty confident in this one, maybe not for the base game, but certainly at some point in the next game's lifespan. After Ryu's inclusion they've kept on expanding on fighting games' representation in Smash, and at this point a representative for anime fighters is the next logical step. Guilty Gear is the anime fighter, and Sol Badguy is the series' definitive main character, so he's the clear frontrunner, especially after Strive's success. He could bring along mechanics such as air dashing, roman cancel and dragon install, making for a pretty crazy fighter even by Smash standards. The only concern is how Guilty Gear's visual style translates to a traditional 3D style, but the Smash team is probably the only one I'd trust to make that transition look good. Bonus points for also repping one of the last missing major Japanese developers in ArcSys.

Dante - I'm quite surprised this didn't happen in Ultimate, it was such an easy win for every party involved. Dante fits Smash like a glove, and while there's a lot of competition for places between Capcom reps, I feel like Dante is the most natural inclusion. Granted that could also backfire, characters like Phoenix Wright or Jill Valentine/Leon Kennedy could have more unorthodox movesets, which may be an incentive to include them instead should they prove to be feasible. Still, I placed all of my eggs in the Dante basket when discussing Capcom reps for Ultimate, and I'm gonna keep them there. And hey, who's to say we won't get two new Capcom fighters throughout the game's lifespan.

Dr. Eggman - I'm definitely feeling a second Sonic rep for the next game, maybe even for base game. Who specifically is up for debate, but I feel like a lot of people would find Tails or Knuckles a little bit bland as far as new 3rd party additions are concerned, whereas Eggman has a little bit of everything you could ask from a second rep.

Ryu Hayabusa - Unless there's a drastic change of pace with the next Smash, it's very hard to see Hayabusa get passed over again, it's already a surprise that he was for Ultimate. Like with Sol a big factor here is also getting one of the last few big Japanese developers involved, and off the top of my head Koei Tecmo might just be the biggest one (that isn't Sony of course).

Anyways, I may not have been as active for this iteration of Rate Their Chances as I was with the Smash 4 one (although 138 posts isn't too shabby either I suppose), but it's a thread that I find synonymous with Smashboards speculation, so thanks for keeping it running, and hopefully there'll be a Smash 6 equivalent when that time comes.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

First party;

Waluigi - One of the biggest guns still out there, and surprisingly still an AT to this day. With tons of moveset potential, a very high popularity, and being quite iconic, he makes for an excellent choice.

Dixie Kong(with or without a partner) - Being she had to be cut in Brawl due to not working out, seeing her still not be in sucks. Whether an Echo, unique, or with a partner combo, she's quite deserving.

The last three I have nothing of note to say of them other than their names; Officer Howard, Ring Fit Trainer, Octoling

Third party:

Dante - A very notable character among Hack and Slash, as well as a great top gun from Capcom. Besides that, he's got a huge arsenal of choice, allowing for near limitless moveset potential.

Crash Bandicoot - A very huge character, with a resurgence lately as well. Besides that, he's yet another previous PlayStation icon, and at one point competed with Mario and Sonic respectively(though obviously didn't stand the test of time in the same way), making it a great thing.

Ubisoft Character - Mainly between Rabbids(the Mario series ones or regular) and the Assassin Creed's characters. They're the biggest ones they got, as well as the most popular. Unfortunately Rayman has been doing fairly meh in comparison, though would be a cool contender, but I honestly don't think his chances are too good when he's doing poorly in the East. Rabbids are doing about the same as him there, whereas they're massive in the West compared to Rayman who is simply doing well.

Doomguy or Master Chief - It's not that both can't exist, but seeing as how Doomguy is a Mii costume, one or the other feels like they're likely for the next Smash. With the other one another potential costume(returning or new). Both are highly different regardless, with only just a similar style to their design(being space marines and all).

Ryu Hayabusa - A pretty huge character, who sadly has nothing so far in Smash. He's the core ninja of the NES among third parties, and carries a ton of options for weapons, is from a great series, and even has potential for Spirits/Cameos from some... better designs in DOA. If any.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna double up on this, just expressing my thoughts on these.

First up though, most of this is on the assumption we are getting basically an Ultimate Deluxe. Right now, it just does not make sense to expect a big smash reboot in my eyes. We just finished up Smash Ultimate and the Switch is still doing well. Odds are, we will end up getting a Switch successor in say 2024 or 2025. I doubt that they would hard reboot smash when they could just do a Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and port over Ultimate. I know that the licensing will be a ***** and a half, but at the end of the day, it just does not make sense to me to not use Ultimate as a base considering how much work went into it. Realistically, if we used Ultimate as a hard base and did minor tweaks, I think things would be fine.

Furthermore, compared to Smash Ultimate's Launch I think we can expect a few more newcomers for the base game than Ultimate got, believe it or not. Having to do all the returning vets likely ate up time that could have been used to make a few newcomers, especially with the fact Brawl and Melee data was basically unusable. For the cut vets, you had to work from the ground up and treat them like a newcomer in terms of resources, especially with how much characters like Link and Pikachu naturally diverged from Pichu and Young Link. As a result, I would say ~10 or so newcomers is a relatively safe bet.

With that out of the way, lets get started.

First Party

• Andy/Sami/ an Advance Wars rep
  • Advance Wars ain't dead, thank god. To be honest, I did not think we would ever see the Wars series come back at all. But we are getting the first two games remade by WayForward. If we are looking back towards the switch like Brawl looked to the gamecube and 4 looked to the DS and Wii, I think Advance Wars makes sense so long as the game does well. The series has a long history with Nintendo and you could easily make some sort of moveset for Andy, Sami, or whatever commanding officer they end up choosing in the end. If I had my choice, I would go Sami just because I think she would look the most natural in the Smash roster: she feels to me the most like a fighter if that makes sense. Any CO could work and you could make a cool moveset for them. Its a long standing series that to be honest deserves a spot in Smash.
• Ashley
  • WarioWare Get It Together was a big success, and as a result I could see it getting a rep. As I said with Andy, Nintendo does enjoy representing the previous generation's success. Brawl leaned heavily on Gamecube era content, and Sm4sh leaned on DS/Wii era content for the most part. You could raise Smash Ultimate, but the Wii U era was represented with its biggest new IP and the 3DS did get Isabelle and Incineroar to rep its new stuff. I could easily see that Smash 6 does end up representing a few big Switch releases that came out after 2017 that are not Three Houses. If we do get another WarioWare rep, Ashley does seem to be the obvious choice. She is far and away the most popular pick both with Nintendo (see the love she got in Badge Arcade) and from fans. Now, you could do Mona or Jimmy T instead, but I think that if we do get WarioWare, they would go with Ashley.
• Impa
  • This is to some extent a catch all Zelda rep spot, and I almost put Skull Kid here instead. But to me, his fan demand came for a short period of time really and has not stuck around nearly as much as say, Bandana Dee, Isaac, or Waluigi. Impa usually either ends up as a young protector of Zelda or an elderly sage, but with AoC we see yet again the more combat ready Impa show up. Impa is really the only recurring Zelda character at this point that is not in Smash outside of Link Zelda and Ganon. The Zelda series as a series does tend to not have the best choices for newcomers, since you have characters like Midna and Skull Kid that, while popular, are stuck in one game if that makes sense outside of spinoffs. I think that for future proofing the Zelda series, Impa is the best choice to rep going forward.
• Ring Fit Trainee
  • Ring Fit sold super well. Like, 8 million copies well. The series to me seems like a solid pick to get representation if we are going the Switch repping path. I still can't believe it sold 8 million copies. A moveset based on the fitness ring seems so dumb but so easy to envision. The character imo will probably end up our WTF character next time.
• Tom Nook
  • I am not an Animal Crossing fan, but at this point it feels impossible not to note how huge the series is. While there was a solid debate in this game whether you would go with Isabelle or Nook for the second AC rep, I think now for the third one it is far and away Nook. I do think there is plenty of stuff you could in theory do to make Nook distinct from Isabelle and Villager, while also using Villager potentially as a base in order to make an easy, lower effort newcomer.
• Waluigi
  • Look, this might just be my passive observation, but we really do not have that many big first party fan favorites left. Compared to the Smash 4 days and especially the brawl days, the number of super huge fan favorites that you could pull from that are first party has dwindled down to such a point, I would really only say three really make that cutoff, with Waluigi having risen to their ranks. Really, my only concern with Waluigi is whether there is significant Mario competition. With how Pauline has been treated, I would not be surprised if she pulls a Rosalina and gets upgraded to the core cast at this rate. But Waluigi has a large fanbase that at this rate does not seem to be going anywhere. He is an easy fan favorite to throw on the roster to generate free hype. Maybe this time he will try hard and get his place in battle.
• Bandana Dee
  • Another fan favorite. While you could argue that Kirby does not need a fourth rep, it is clear Nintendo has big plans for the series. He is getting a full fledged 3D game now, which to me seems like an attempt to finally move Kirby up to their A list. If you put in another Kirby rep, it has to be Dee at this point. He is the fourth most recurring character to pull from. He is the player 4 character. He is by far the most popular Kirby request. The only real obstacle to be honest is whether Nintendo and Sakurai think its time to put him in.
• Isaac
  • If I had to bet on one fan favorite making it into the next Smash in terms of first parties, it is Isaac. Isaac is really the last big Brawl era request that has an active fanbase besides Geno, who I personally think is not a realistic choice to be brutally honest. With Advance Wars getting a remake, Golden Sun coming back is less of a question of if and rather when. Combine that with how much of a large fan request Isaac is to this day, and he seems like a no brainer choice. It also helps that if Nintendo does ever want to push Golden Sun, Smash is great advertising for it.
• Octolings
  • The top two I am almost certain will be in the next game. Splatoon seems to have been adopted by Nintendo into its core franchises, and Octolings are the obvious second choices. You could either do a semi clone or echo of Inkling, where you have a ton of overlap, or you could push them to be more unique since Splatoon has so many weapons. To me, this just feels like a no brainer choice, and it would have been number one if it were not for one reason.
• Officer Howard
  • This list was not exactly ordered, but I would say Octolings and Howard are far and away the safest bets. The fact Nintendo bought the full rights to Astral Chain from Platinum to me tells me that they are going to do more stuff with the IP in the future. Astral Chain to me is one of the few franchises I am shocked did not make the playable jump in Smash Ultimate. After its big reveal and success, I thought it was a safe bet for FP2...until it got spirited. The moveset writes itself, especially with how the legions are so cool. The character to me is far and away the safest bet for a Smash Ultimate Deluxe first party.

For third parties, I decided to divide this up into both new companies and companies already on board. I could list a few honorable mentions, but this is long enough as it is.

Third Party

• Master Chief
  • If I had to bet on one character to appear in the next game, it would be Chief. I would even bet on him over Octolings or Howard. The fact is, I doubt Microsoft is leaving Smash anytime soon. And if we get more Microsoft reps, Chief is the clear frontrunner. He has a ton of fan demand, especially with it exploding after Steve. Microsoft themselves seem open to the idea of doing Chief in the future. I know that Halo has no games on the Switch yet, and I know that this might be a bit of a weird call, but so long as Microsoft is involved in smash Chief is a question of when rather than if to be honest.
• Dante
  • To be honest, I was very bullish on Dante for this cycle. I thought his fan demand came too late and that Capcom competition was fience. But now? I honestly think he is the frontrunner for Capcom. Monster Hunter got shafted twice this game, where it made so much sense for both base game and DLC but it just did not happen. Resident Evil got reduced to spirits. Heck, Phoenix Wright did not even show up this game! But Dante gets the nod from Sakurai that he was a big fan request? To me, that screams that if we get another Capcom rep, Dante is the frontrunner now. It helps that DMC is a super influential series, helping pioneer action games and beat em ups in 3D. Dante also has a moveset that writes itself which would help him translate super easily to smash.
• Arle Nadja
  • Puyo is my pick of a Sega franchise to highlight. I know some people might think Kiryu, Eggman, Tails, SMT, or Phantasy Star might be the move, but to me Puyo makes a lot of sense. The series is actively supporting the Switch; Puyo Puyo Tetris was one of the bigger launch window titles in terms of success and it got a sequel. She is a relatively popular fan request of sorts as well. While never on the A list either this game or during the ballot days, Arle was not invisible. She always had some fans pushing for her. I also think the idea of a puzzle game themed fighter might be a tantalizing idea for the development team. Puyo has a long history as one of the biggest puzzle series out there. To me, this just makes a ton of sense.
• Lloyd Irving
  • Similar to Dante, getting the nod from Sakurai tells me that if we get a third Namco rep, its Lloyd. Tales is one of the biggest JRPG series not in Smash, if not the biggest. Sakurai has himself said if it gets a rep, its Lloyd. The dude is popular to this day with the Smash community and the Tales community, which helps a ton too. Honestly, it is kind of a straightforward pick in my eyes.
• Lara Croft
  • This is the ideal fourth Square rep, you may not like it but this is what peak performance looks like . In all seriousness, if we do get a fourth Square rep, I would bet on Lara. Geno has so many issues I could go into, but I would prefer not to do that on the last day of RTC. Chrono and Neku, even if they would be cool as hell, are much more niche. Tomb Raider was huge, it was one of the biggest series on the PS1 and it got its own big budget Hollywood movie back in the day. Tomb Raider had a big reboot this past generation too. Its a solid pick if you want to go with something to represent gaming as a whole: going with one of gaming's most iconic heroines, easily the most iconic not in Smash.
• Adol Christian
  • For the first new company we could bring in, I thought Falcom would be a good choice to highlight. To me, this is a Terry style pick. A pioneer of the genre with a ton of history and legacy in it. Ys has been going on forever and was a super big game back in the day. Heck it is still going strong today. Keep an eye on Adol, sleeper pick imo.
• Ryu Hayabusa
  • The Hayabusa hype train came a little too late, but for the next game I think he has a solid shot to be a Simon styled retro pick. Ninja Gaiden really feels like one of the last truly massive NES games not in Smash at this point. You have a handful of retro picks like Excitebikes, Murasame Castle, and Mach Rider, then third party retro picks like Arthur or Bill Rizer. But Hayabusa to me seems to be the most sensible. His series does have that retro appeal while still having a successful reboot and revival. He is a pick similar to Simon that just feels like he would belong in Smash to me. It helps Koei Tecmo is super close to Nintendo, making Three Houses and tons of Warriors spinoffs. Heck, Nintendo trusted them with the Zelda IP twice!
• Crash Bandicoot
  • Were you surprised one of the biggest Crash supporters has Crash as a top seed? I think the main issue Crash had for this game is that his demand did not really start to rise until 2016...one year after the Ballot had come to a close. In Ultimate, even during the base game when titans like K Rool, Banjo, and Ridley loomed over speculation, Crash always managed to show up as a fan favorite. At many points during speculation, it almost seemed like he was the frontrunner. Obviously, that did not come to pass, but the case for Crash is still very much there. His fan demand is through the roof, he is one of the most popular fan requests nowadays. He is super iconic, he was the mascot of the PS1. He is relevant now, and with his re introduction to modern gamers he likely will remain a strong fan request.
• Sol Badguy
  • I originally had Rayman on this spot in a past draft of this, but the more I thought about it Sol made a lot more sense to me. Guilty Gear has finally hit the mainstream due to Strive, and I think the series will still be seen as the cornerstone of the anime fighter a few years down the line. Arc Sys already has been friendly with Nintendo, as we did get River City Spirits. I think that if we do get another fighting game rep, Sol is the obvious choice. I know some people might say MK, but Mortal Kombat sadly is a non factor in Japan. Overall, I'd call this a sleeper pick for next game.
• Jonesy
  • I flip flopped between Jonesy and a League of Legends rep for my final pick I wanted to highlight. I know Fortnite is a controversial game, but to be honest, it has earned a spot in Smash. The game is a juggernaut and it clearly is one of the biggest games of the past decade. It has shown no signs of stopping, and I doubt the game will die out in the next five years. Epic as we know also is on good terms with Nintendo and does at least show some desires of wanting to have collabed with Nintendo on Fortnite. If Nintendo wanted Jonesy, they would get him. I also think it helps that Fortnite moveset wise also offers some good stuff. You have the obvious gunplay, but the building aspect could be really cool to try and implement similar to how Steve has his mining. Dread it, but Jonesy to me seems like a viable choice in the future, even if I personally have little to no interest in him being in.

 

[SneakyLink]

Before I get to the main topic, I'm going to quickly rate Sora and FP Vol 2 since I had some time to check them out.

Door Locked, better get a giant key to open it!
Sora: 75%

The stage and music of Kingdom Hearts is beautiful. Flying around Hollow Bastion and peeking into Sora's heart is nice. Sora himself a bit tricky for me to enjoy, but I see the potential.

FP Vol 2: 65%
1 character I was super hype for, 3 characters I had enjoyment over, 1 dud, and 1 character who had unfortunate timing. Overall a decent pass.

Now on to the main topic:
First Party:

Waluigi: After the immense support, I definitely see Waluigi getting a spot next time around. I feel that he has earned it and could be the fan pick next time.

A new Zelda character: As this game showed us that Zelda characters don't all have to have one or two designs, I could see them try a new character. Impa I feel is the most likely here, but we could end up with someone unexpected like Tingle or Agitha.

Octoling: With Splatoon 3 on the way, I definitely feel that Octoling will join the next round of Smash. But will they be a full on echo fighter or a semi clone? That is something I want to see.

Officer Howard or Ring Fit Adventurer: Two recent Switch titles that saw massive success (especially the latter). I might give the edge to the RFA, mostly depending on how powerful the next system is and if the main mechanic of Astral Chain can even work.

Legacy Nintendo character: I was disappointed we didn't really get one of these in Ultimate so I think they'll try again in the next game. This doesn't have to be limited to NES, but can be from any system.


Third Party:

Ryu Hayabusa: The ninja who was steadily popular. With KT collaborating for some aspects of this title (albeit mostly stuff owned by Nintendo), I can see us getting a character from them next time.

Master Chief: If Nintendo and Microsoft are still friendly towards each other, then I think the Chief will prepare to Finish the Fight. He could break the internet someday.

Any of the following: Dante, Dragonborn, Lloyd Irving, Shantae: Mentioned to be popular requests in the Kazuya presentation. If their popularity remains steady I could see one, maybe two, of them join for real.

Heavy: The TF2 community has become somewhat rallied around him joining after Joker was revealed so I could see him getting something. If he doesn't join, perhaps Gordon Freeman or Chell could join?

Reimu: ZUN said in 2019 that he would want to see Touhou in Smash, but that he can't sit around and do nothing. If ZUN approaches Nintendo around the time the next Smash is starting to be planned, I could see Reimu being a easy addition.

And that's the game! It was fun joining in occasionally and I hope to see everyone around again someday. I'll still be around and will be frequenting the Nick All Star Brawl thread. Until then, hope everyone had a wonderful time speculating Ultimate.

 

[toonito]

1st Party:
Waluigi: Sakurai tends to listen to popular fan requests and I think he's the biggest 1st party not playable at this point. I'll say this if he doesn't get in Smash 6 I believe he won't ever be playable alongside Toad.

Ring Fit Trainee: Quite possibly the Inkling of Smash 6. Nothing's set in stone but I'd be surprised if she missed the cut.

Officer Howard: It's weird I'd feel more confident in their inclusion based on how Astral Chain 2 does. I don't feel the same for Ring Fit Trainee.

Dixie Kong: mainly because of her status in Brawl and scrapped characters for a Smash game may be revisited in the future. Echo, semiclone or unique? don't know.

3rd Party
Dante/Shantae/Dragonborn/Lloyd Irving: I feel at least 1 of these 4 will make it in Smash 6. Who? no clue.
I wonder if Tales of Arise's recent success could possibly hurt Lloyd's chances in favor of Alphen/Shionne?

Bomberman: received both Assist Trophy and a special Mii costume. I feel more confident in his chances than his fellow Konami rep, Alucard.

Doom Slayer: Him and Master Chief are kinda linked in my head but I feel Doom Slayer is likelier. I'll probably be wrong lol.

Sol Badguy/fighting game rep: We got Ryu in Smash 4, Ken in Base Ultimate, Terry in FP1 and Kazuya in FP2. I feel that a new fighting game rep will make it in Smash 6 given Sakurai's understated fondness for the genre. We could swerve with Soul Calibur's Nightmare (developed by Namco) but I feel like Sol's next in line to join his peers in Smash. Don't look at my profile pic btw.

Chun-Li I feel is a wildcard based on Nintendo's approach to either:
A. Representing more of Capcom's diverse IPs in Smash
B. Getting Capcom's biggest icons in Smash regardless of genre

If Nintendo approaches Smash according to A. then Dante, Resident Evil, and possibly Phoenix Wright will probably be more appealing and putting her 4th at best through this approach. If Nintendo approaches Smash using B. then she can make it as early as Smash 6 as other than maybe Jill Valentine she's Capcom's biggest female character and alongside Ryu as one of their most popular company mascots. Come to think of it she may swap with Ken and represent an classic fighting game rep alongside a debuting one (Sol/Nightmare/Yoshimitsu/Amingo)

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Well, we're getting ready to say our final good byes then. Good thing I came back just in time. I missed a few days, but that's okay. I'll just jump into the day's activities.
First Parties:
#1: Isaac - You can tell that they were aware of the demand for Isaac to return to Smash Bros, but in the end of the day all we still got was his Assist Trophy. If Golden Sun were more active in the build-up to Ultimate, then I'd dare say he possibly could have made the cut. But there's quite a lot of representation Golden Sun eventually got in the end; Isaac and his pals as Spirits and a Mii Costume, and the Assist Trophy having more Psynergy attacks. I think a lot of people will return to Isaac if Golden Sun returns to the scene.
#2: Waluigi - They know well by now how much people want to see this guy join Smash. He's pretty much now where Chrom was in Smash 4, endlessly mocked and made the meme man because he's not gotten his chance to be playable. I'd dare say that Waluigi is probably the most wanted Mario series character by far at this point.
#3: Tom Nook - With how big Animal Crossing New Horizons would be, why not strike where the stonks are at with a third Animal Crossing character like the OG Tom Nook? He's been around since the series began and honestly I think there could be some fun creative ideas Tom Nook could bring - particularly examples such as bells that could invest towards certain abilities he has, or having Tommy and Timmy help. He'd be a welcome addition.
#4: Sami/Andy/Max - Advance Wars getting a revival is a pleasant surprise, and the series does have some strong legacy. Depending on how well Advance Wars Re-Boot Camp goes, I think an Advance Wars character could still be open for the table.
#5: Ashley & Red - WarioWare is always a successful and quirky series and with Get it Together doing well and how popular Ashley is to this day in Japan, I'd say there could be fuel for a duo of Ashley and Red working together in battle.

Third-Parties
#1: A Capcom character - I'd be willing to bet that we will absolutely see a new Capcom character join in the next Smash game. Dante or Phoenix Wright are my main bets.
#2: I hate to say it, but blegh, Crash. Forgive my utter disdain towards this character because of Activision-Blizzard, but Crash has probably taken the "popular rival mascot character" role that Banjo-Kazooie had in speculation.
#3: First-Person Shooter genre character - Not really being specific, but I expect a character from this genre will be included in a future game. This speculation cycle has seen the likes of Master Chief and Doom Slayer join the speculation scene. Valve often have a few names tossed like The Heavy (who would be amazing) or Gordon Freeman too. It might be my crippling Apex Legends addiction, but I wouldn't count that game out either if they went with someone like Wraith since Apex is huge in Japan.
#4: Kris or Frisk, though I think Kris is the one with obvious fighting potential. Undertale/Deltarune continue to remain popular to this day, though with Deltarune being an evolving game and not really released as the full experience, it's hard to say what could change for Kris' chance. I do think they would make a bit more sense to be a fighter than Frisk/Chara - Frisk is by nature a True Pacifist which doesn't really lend itself to Smash, and Chara would just fight with a small knife. If Kris were accompanied by the other Party members like Susie or Ralsei as I've seen suggested on Twitter, that would probably be a more interesting fighter concept. Also... "GODDAMIT KRIS WHERE THE !@#$ ARE WE?!"
#5: Sol Badguy - Arc System Works have certainly developed a strong reputation within the game industry now, with Guilty Gear, Blazblue and Dragon Ball FighterZ to there name, so I kinda agree with Toonito that Sol Badguy could arguably be the character to represent ASW much like Terry did for SNK.

And the final good-byes you say?
Well, it's certainly been one long road. I joined this site in the surprise that was Robin and Lucina getting chosen for Smash 4 over Chrom, which was truly an upheaval for speculation for me. Back then, my main wants included the likes of Shulk and Isaac, but joining the Support Threads for characters like Ridley and King K. Rool really won me over to them, since I confess they weren't initially in my most wanted lists. It was quite the enjoyable experience to speculate along the Space Pirates and Kutthroats, but boy did speculation often get ugly at times. But at the same time it also got exciting too.

It's truly been a wild ride with Smash Ultimate, and boy has this game gone above and beyond if you ask me. We saw Inklings confirmed on day 1 by being traumatised for life by a flaming Smash Ball in the sky, starting up the flames of speculation once again. Who's going to make it? Ridley? K. Rool? Who's not going to make it? Cloud? Ryu?

Nope, come E3 2018 we had the most incredible announcement:
"EVERYONE IS HERE" All veterans are coming back - from Pichu, Young Link, the Ice Climbers and THE legendary Solid Snake. Also Daisy's here, but we've also turned around on the idea of Clones - now we actually would love to see more of them fleshed out as 'Echo Fighters!' But not just that. RIDLEY HITS THE BIG TIME. Holy crap that's one way to set off the ride that is Smash Ultimate. The roster kept getting crazier with each new addition, King K. Rool after his long absence from games, Simon Belmont AND Richter Belmont accompanied with Chrom and Dark Samus in September. The charming Isabelle, and closing the base-game roster with an infamous Boxed-duo of Ken and Incineroar.

The Grinch Leak was one wild time, much like the wild speculation around the ESRB Leaks. But then a potted plant showed up. ...I still get baffled by it to this day. But the real spectacle was seeing the DLC truly kick off with Joker being the first DLC fighter proper.
The first fighter pass was quite impressive - with the contentious exception being Byleth - We got Dragon Quest representation with 4 Heroes, Luminary, Erdrick, Solo and Eight alongside Banjo-Kazooie at long last. Terry was also an incredible wild card very few people saw but I dare say he became everyone's fan-favourite from the DLC overall.

And now we conclude Smash two years later with Fighters Pass 2. ARMS and Xenoblade 2 finally got the recognition they missed out on initially with Min-Min and Pyra/Mythra respectively. The Twitter-crashing blockhead himself, Steve alongside Alex, a Zombie and Enderman bringing Minecraft to Smash Bros. And the terrifying delight that was seeing Sephiroth bring not only despair at TGA2020, but also bringing the content Final Fantasy VII was dearly missing. Kazuya and his Lvl 9 CPU also helped bring representation for the iconic Tekken series, which was pretty impressive since you'll be needing a dictionary for his moveset.

I've said it many times, but there's one word that encapsulates Sora being THE Final fighter. "Magical." He was THE most wanted character from the infamous Fighter Ballot all those years ago and Sakurai and his team had to negotiate with likely both Square Enix AND Disney to get Sora in Smash Bros... Just to make that dream a reality. Of course I would've preferred it being Phoenix Wright as the final fighter, but I cannot argue against how magical it was to see Sora flying through the air in his reveal trailer. And with that, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is finished for good.

It's been an incredible journey for me to follow Smash for so long. From both High School and now into my University Masters of Research, Smash Bros has truly become something more than the humble Nintendo 64 party-fighter. It's a celebration of video games, both big and small. I'm happy to hang up the speculation cap for good now, but I'll probably hang around on this site from time to time in certain threads, but I've got bigger projects to worry about now.
Been a fun time being here on Smashboards. Made some friends, thought of creative movesets for characters I wanted to see join the fight, break down rumours and speculations, have fun and joke about. So now it's time to head off. Take care and stay safe in this world post Smash Bros. speculation!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Hoo boy, I've never been good with these


So uh. RTC. I didn't really care for it as I felt that the scores were so easily manipulated by a sudden influx of people who'd never post ever again, with me doing it to prove a point to, but at some point I realized that I've always wanted to make writeups and realized that oh ****, RTC is actually perfect for that. After spending some time letting myself do some writing to pass the time, I ended up being called a mainstay by I believe TCT when Adol was getting rated and a post I made to point out how bandwagons were a healthy and natural thing, which made me feel something, I don't know how to describe said feeling but it was... Nice. As if I actually said something smart enough for someone to remember. It also gave me an excuse to talk about some of my unlikely favourites like Miriam, Velvet Crowe, Zero Escape and When They Cry. I've always wanted to make videos or something to talk about the things I like but I don't have the time to learn how to edit which is probably why I liked doing this as it's somewhat similar. I don't know if I'll be around by the time the next Smash game gets announced or if I'll participate in this but I really have to say that TCT, Sari and Goodgrief did a good job, listening to criticism, managing to find a way to make people put in effort which in turn helped make this more fun for me and doing what they could to crack down on bad **** including when someone who would constantly harass me came in here solely to harass me. If there's another RTC for the next game, I'd hope that those 3 could go for it again or that whoever takes over does a similarly fantastic job, it's gonna feel weird to not have this to pass the time anymore but I hope for nothing but the best for everyone here and that life gets good for everyone during these rough times, especially with the game we've been talking about this entire time, good ****, especially with friends.

 

[Lyncario]

After the satisfaction rating that was very done very late, I'm doing the actualy thing of the day.

TOP 5 MOST LIKELY 1ST PARTY AND 3RD PARTY NEWCOMERS FOR SMASH 6/ULTIMATE DX/WHATEVER WE GET NEXT

Banned 1st Party Picks

First of all a ban list, because while I feel those are too generic for me to include in my speculation, especialy since we know so little about them.

Gen 9/Latest Gen Pokemon

Xenoblade 3/4 Protagonist

Latest Fire Emblem Lord

We know why they're very likely to happen. Sakurai said that he keeps a spot for Pokemon and FE in each new Smash due to them having rotating cast, and there's no reason for it to be different with Xenoblade, at the detriment of the crowd allergic to swords. But those are also generic guest of games we don't know much if anything about yet, so I'm banning those from my actual picks. And by the way,

Unnannounced and recent new IP that did well like Splatoon

This also goes here, for similar reason, though more because it would be more like Splatoon, hence why it's called like that.

Alright, now for the actual top 5.

Top 5 most likely 1st party characters for the next Smash

1: Tom Nook

Similar reason as to why Isabelle was the second likeliest character to join the next Smash game after the Inklings before Ultimate's reveal. Animal Crossing is giga huge, and it's characters are super popular, and with Villager and Isabelle already being in, it makes a lot of sense that Tom Nook would get the same treatment Isabelle got in Ultimate in the next Smash. People tend to forget that Nintendo's modern big 4 includes Animal Crossing way too much.

2: Ring Fit Trainer

If Tom Nook is a deja vu for Isabelle, Ring Fit is a deja vu for Wii Fit Trainer, though also with some elements similar to Inkling. Big new game that appeals to a big audience, while also being in the "Fit" series (?). Makes a lot of sense to me and many other here,

3: Akira Howard/Legionis

Hey look, the other recent 1st party character, except they would make a lot of people rage because "animu" and not from their childoods. But anyway, Nintendo bought the rights of the IP to Platinum Games, and it did pretty well in spite of it aiming at a niche audience. The only reason as to why they wouldn't be in would be if the next Nintendo system would still be too weak to handle a lot of them at once, but I'm going to make the gamble this problem won't happen.

4: Bandana Dee

He's the most consistantly and highly requested 1st character since Sm4sh/Brawl that isn't in the game, in spite of what some people say. And while people say that Sakurai has an anti modern Kirby bias, eh, BanDee originates from Super Star anyway. People sadly downplay the request for him a lot because some think he's a generic enemy and also that he doesn't deserve to be requested, but it doesn't change the reality that he is very requested, especialy in Japan.

5: ...Waluigi

As much as it pains me to say it, yeah he got a big shot for the next game, since his fans where the loudest over his disconfirmation, and for some unknown reason people still make stuff of him as if he had a chance to begin with for the dlc of Ultimate. And while it's not as consistant as with BanDee, he does have request since Sm4sh. I would have liked to put another character I actualy like here like Midna, but I'm being realistic, so it's Waluigi here.

Top 5 most likely 1st party characters for the next Smash

1: Dante from the Devil May Cry series tm

Capcom is on board, Kamiya is on board, Itsuno is on board, the fans are on board, he just was requested too late for it to matter. Sakurai even noted him as one of the most requested fighters, and since Capcom is already a part of Smash, I can very well see him in the next Smash, though more as dlc than base roster. Of ocurse, other Capcom characters are very possible (most notably Phoexni Wright and either Jill Valentine or Leon Kennedy)

2: Lloyd Irving

Hey look, I can pretty much repeat what I said for Dante here, that's nice. No really, that's pretty much the same thing here than for Dante, though he also has been requested for longer. Him being noted as very requested does put him far above Yuri Lowell imo, unlike what I previously though.

3: Master Chief

Big character, a lot of request since Ultimate, Nintendo and Microsoft have a great relationship, and Microsoft had a character in both fighter passes, so this one wouldn't surprise me too much. I was adamant on him not joining in FP2 because of Steve, and well, I was right, but now there's no Minecraft Steve as newcomer for the next Smash game, only Minecraft Steve as a veteran. Like Dante, far more dlc material than base game material.

4: Sol Badguy

Hey look, paterns again. There has been a traditionnal fighting game character in every Smash cycle since Ryu hapened in 4, so I don't find it too far fetched to say an FGC character is in the top 5 most likely 3rd party for the next game. Now, why Sol Badguy specifically? Well, Strive definitively put Guilty Gear more on the center of the scene, but also because ArcSys has a good relation with Nintendo and has done a lot for anime fighters (even if technically speaking, Capcom's Darkstalker would be the first or prototype of the genre), so I feel like he's pretty likely, especialy since we already got the most Street Fighter and Tekken for the most popular japanese fighting games. He also got a surprisingly big ammount of request, even if he wasn't one of the top request in Ultimate, he was still notable.

5: Reimu Hakurei

This is in part bias, but also in part me actualy believing this one. First of all, Touhou has been getting bigger and bigger at a scary rate lately, the fanbase get so much new stuff and it keeps bringing in more and more new people. Reimu has also ended up being the darkhorse of Smash request in Ultimate, getting more and more people wanting her as time goes on. ZUN would also be ok with Reimu in Smash as he said in an interview, so that's not an obstacle either. Nintendo also already showed interest in Touhou, multiple times, and while it ended up being nothing for Ultimate, ZUN and a lawyer friend of his said that Nintendo would support Touhou in various ways if the main games got ported to Switch, and so far we already have AoCF. So yeah.

And as a bonus, while they would fit a patern too, Square Enix already have most of their most popular character requested for Smash in the game, with Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth, and technically Sora being in. This would lead to their next character being not as much as a massive request if they get one, which also makes the comparaison with Microsoft break for this point, though Lara Croft or 2B would still work well as a number 6 for this list.

 

[BowserKing]

1.Bandanna Dee cause we need another Kirby rep.
2.Second Sonic Rep, because it is long overdue.
3.Legend of Zelda Rep: Same as above
4.New Pokémon Rep: Because Pokémon is too big to not have a new rep.
5.New Mario Rep: Same as Above, plus spinoffs count
6.Crash because of his popularity and being iconic
7.Issac and other retro fighter’s: cause Smash loves those
That is all for this, due to me being in a rush
Goodbye rate their chances

 

[SSGuy]

Due to the nature of how Nintendo handles 1st Party newcomers, I might abstain from them as they might be difficult to determine. Instead I am just going to give my top 5 most likely if we ever get another Smash Bros game

1) Monster Hunter - This doesn't seem to be slowing down in Japan and I think it's gonna continue to be big if Nintendo decides to make another game. This would be my first choice when it comes to who is getting in.

2) New Kirby Character - Ideally this will be a new character if the next games net a popular enough following. If fan demand continues to persist, then I can see if being Bandana Waddle Dee but Nintendo might also be interested in seeing someone from the newest of new Kirby games.

3) New Zelda Character - Same boat as Kirby speculation. This one will probably end up being someone from the newest entry unless fan demand warrants someone specific. I am not sure if Skull Kid or Midna support is still around but one of these two I feel like would be first choice when it comes to an older Zelda character. My first choice for Zelda would be a rework of Zelda (Like a Zero Suit Zelda type character)

4) Isaac/Lloyd Irving - This one is kind of cheating but it feels like one of these two are going to make it in the next game.

5) Geno - I still think Geno is always going to have a chance if the demand is there. Ultimate kind of destroyed any barrier to entry with newcomers and I think so long as a character has enough support behind them they have a shot. I put him at 5 because it is going to depend on how much the community stands it's ground but I think Geno support from Ultimate to the next game will be much more lively than support from Brawl to Smash 4. Geno is still one of those characters who will get his chance someday. With four SE characters (and all the zippers and fingerless gloves Nomura could ask for) Something is gonna have to give at some point.

HM - New Splatoon rep - This feels like the thing Nintendo will try to push if they have input on the roster. Most weapons and equipment to choose from. Splatoon isn't going away regardless of how some may feel about that

I haven't really visit the newcomer thread often but I respect the drive you guys have to analyze literally every single character and their chances. Even if we may have completely different opinions on certain characters, I still appreciate you all being apart of this community.

 

[Sari]

Well it's been a fun past 3 years but it's time to say goodbye. I'll talk about my time here and leave some final thoughts while the thread is still open.

-----

I started doing Ultimate RTC around the summer of 2018. I think this was my first rating here which wouldn't surprise me since I was a really big Celica supporter at the time (and also knew that Three Houses was gonna get prioritized in some way). Back then I mainly just viewed it as a fun little game to help keep the Ultimate hype ongoing.

Eventually I decided to rate a character I wanted that no one else was probably going to nom. The character that came to mind was Terry Bogard. Sometime around July, I started giving him noms and we eventually got to rate Terry in September 2018. The route that Ultimate would take for its characters was still very unclear at the time, so needless to say he did not do well during that rating. I did a sort of mini essay for Terry that day but it didn't help much.

I think that was the point I realized that I wanted to use RTC to introduce people to characters that I liked. I then proceeded to nom fellow SNK character Kyo Kusanagi knowing full well he didn't have a shot but I still wanted to gush about how much I liked the character. I did another writeup with a bit more effort, but with Terry being competition Kyo was never going to be likely.
Off topic but the Kyo day happened right when the Grinch Leak started which I always find amusing for some reason.

The game changer to me in terms of Smash speculation was definitely Joker. His reveal was so unexpected that I think it changed how we all viewed third parties and their chances. This was the point where I realized that someone like Terry may actually have an actual chance, even if it wasn't the best. From there I started to nom Concept: SNK rep and began storming ideas for an even bigger writeup. It culminated in this giant wall of text which made me feel like I had done my part in the thread. Terry's eventual confirmation felt like a giant payoff to all of this and was probably the most satisfying videogame-related moment to me ever.

Following the big SNK essay, I spent a lot more time doing RTC and making sure all of my ratings for each character were well done. Sometime around late 2019, TCT brought me onboard to help out with starting the new days and doing music posts. At that point it truly did feel like RTC was my home, and gathering music posts each day introduced me to a lot of bangers. Even with my general interest in Smash gradually going down throughout 2020, I still found myself coming back to this thread every day.

This thread isn't perfect but I think a lot of people who hate RTC assume that we're all sitting on high horses and that we all act as if we know every single thing about who will/won't be added to Smash. But really the whole point of this thread is to have fun while talking about characters, see how hilariously wrong (or right) we are in the end, and most importantly to learn about potential new Smash characters and their series.

Game series that I've given a try (or have been more interested in trying out) thanks to RTC:

• Astral Chain
• Destroy All Humans
• Kunio-kun
• Ninja Gaiden
• VA-11 Hall-A
• When They Cry
• Ys
• Zero Escape

There are definitely more but these are the main ones that come to mind.

-----

The worst part about RTC and the Newcomer forums coming to a close isn't that we can't rate any more characters or that we'll have to go years without Smash news. No, the worst part is... we'll probably never all see each other again.

Cue sad goodbye music​

I was active on SmashBoards during the Smash 4 days and even did a few days of RTC from way back then. From my experience, I know a lot of people from those days never came back to this site. Whether its due to being tired of SmashBoards or just moving on from Smash/videogames in general, I think there's a good chance that at least a few of us won't return and this will be the last time we'll see each other with everyone here (perhaps this was the true Everyone Is Here in the end).

So I'd just like to give my thanks to every single person here. Each of you made this thread a blast to come to everyday regardless of whatever your chance/want scores were. I'd also like to give a Special Thanks to the following people:

TCT~Phantom and GoodGrief741 for giving me the chance to help out around here.
UtopianPoyzin for also helping out on the staff team a while back.
DanganZilla5 for his big writeups like the Xenoblade 2 and Bill Rizer essays.
Mr. MR for his big writeups on Monster Hunter and Dynasty Warriors.
Perkilator for being probably the biggest Sora supporter on the site who stuck with him to the very end. Also apologies for freaking out on you on certain days like the Atari one.
SharkLord for his big writeups like the ones for Adol and Reimu.
Flyboy CyberHyperPhoenix and 3BitSaurus for being some of the OG SNK supporters.
Megadoomer (and also NonSpecificGuy for a little bit) for changing the title of the thread whenever TCT wasn't here.
Anyone else who I didn't mention that regularly posted here. Apologies if I didn't name you specifically but I don't want to make this too long. You all know who you are.

-----

As for me, I'm still a writer for the site so I will probably still float around SmashBoards here and there. Though it'll be hard to not instinctively go back to this thread like I did every single day for the past few years.

None of us know what the future holds - both for Smash and the unpredictable world that we live in - but at least I can say that the last couple of years here have been a truly ultimate experience.

Until next time!

 

[Flyboy]

I don't know if I have a massive post in me, but I'm going to miss this thread.

I think it's really funny that I basically jumped in here while drunk in an Uber on my way home from some kind of party one night because I saw people rating Professor Layton and being what I thought was rather unfair and mean towards him. That was the day I decided I would give absolutely every character we rated a fair shake in terms of moveset and concept and that I was gonna get my damn posts to count.

From there I made it my goal to get the thread to talk about picks that were out-there but fun. It started with Style Savvy and Ryota Hayami, still two of my biggest first-party wants, and in that time I got to have fun talking about other characters I love. I even got to rate SNK content as extremely likely, even if at the time I said I would want Metal Slug over Terry. The SNK leak was a wonderful, wonderful day.

I still can't believe I got the thread to rank Beatrice. I'm sad I missed Corvo's day as I really wanted to talk about Dishonored in Smash.

One of my non-SNK or Style Savvy-related proudest moments was getting someone to realize that Kyle Hyde would be badass in Smash. I loved when people really and truly broke down a character and objectively thought about why they'd be a fun addition, even if they weren't a likely one. It made my heart sing when passionate fans would make big ol' posts. Shoutouts to the Atari day - GoodGrief741 You may not see this, but it's been fun talking about all our favorite out-there picks together, especially when it was my weirdo first parties, and the Atari day was awesome.

I've said it in a few threads now, I think, but this forum, this thread, this whole spec cycle...it came during a really important time in my life, a time where I lost a lot of things that I held dear and went through a lot of things I was scared I'd never recover from. It filled a void by giving me something...well, honestly, a little silly to focus on. I mean, characters in the funny punchy Mario fighting game...not exactly world politics or rocket science. But I got to extrapolate reasoning, think up crazy theories, and put together decently-convincing arguments as to why this or that character would at least be fun to see in this environment. It kept me sane and kept me happy and eventually lead me to a lovely, welcoming community full of people I adore.

The list is too long for me to shoutout everyone, but if we've ever interacted I mean it when I say it's been a pleasure, even if it was when cooler heads didn't prevail.

Anyway, you better believe I'm going to rev up those Travis Touchdown, Style Savvy, and Ryota Hayami threads and votes whenever there's a next time. I just hope it's even a fraction as fun as it was this time, warts and all.

 

[Lyncario]

Haven't said goodbye yet to this thread, so I'll do it now.

It has been a fun ride for sure, both trough the good, hard, bad, and toxic times. But in the end, I think that we should just remember the fun we had speculating, and that we for sure had precious time and grory days around here (and that's my cue to tell you guys to watch Yu Gi Oh GX subbed)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Goodbye everyone it was fun.

This thread during the Sm4sh period is what brought me back from my decade long slumber, so it will be sorely missed. Until next time, Rate Their Chances fans.

Top likely 5 first party (ignoring a next gen Pokemon and the next Fire Emblem protagonist because those feel like givens at this point):

1. Waluigi. It's impossible for this NOT to have been noticed now by Nintendo. We usually get two Mario characters per game too, which is why I feel he's quite likely for the next round.
2. Captain Toad. Probably more personal bias than anything but if we get another Captain Toad game between now and Smash, I could easily see him being the second Mario character in the next Smash.
3. Akira/Officer Howard. I love Astral Chain but it was kind of forgotten about by most people. There's still some love for it with Lappy appearing in the Bayonetta 3 trailer, and the accidental slip that there are plans for a sequel however...pretty high chances.
4. Tom Nook. Biggest Switch success story really, Tom Nook is likely to pull a Chrom in the next game in my eyes.
5. Octoling. Splatoon's success lends itself to many weapons. Octoling seems like an easy way to explore more of what the series has to offer.

Top likely 5 third party
Honestly I have no idea. Sora and Banjo-Kazooie got in this time round, it could literally anyone. I do think Crash Bandicoot, Dante and Travis Touchdown's popularity may have been noticed but after the picks this time round I'm willing to believe anyone and everyone is possible for third party.

 

[SharkLord]

Guess I'll pop in here one last time. When I fist discovered SmashBoards and set up an account, I was the standard newcomer - Passionate, optimistic, and admittedly not the most logical or level-headed. I hopped into RTC because it was pinned up there and I thought it was something that everyone did. I've had some heated moments I'm not too proud of in hindsight, but I will say that I'm proud of some of the writeups I've put out in here, and especially the fact that I somehow managed to propel Ys into being a SmashBoards darkhorse series. Heck, this thread was when I first heard of Falcom and later decided to ask about it, and you all know where that led.

So yeah. Even if I lost that passion and energy for debating I used to have, it's only fair that I come back here to pay my respects for something that played a major part of my early years on SmashBoards.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Let's get some fitting music for the final day.

I’ll be honest, I did not expect to end up running the thread. I saw that it was absent from the forums in the Smash Ultimate speculation threads, and asked the mods if I could helm it. I thought that someone else would have poached it, who probably was active here even during the lull between 4 and ultimate. I’ll be honest, I am glad to have had the opportunity of running the thread. It was a highlight seeing how the smash community evolved and changed as time went on.

One thing I think is important to talk about is that RTC is difficult to run solo. I struggled to do calcs, keep the noms list updated, and even change the days sometimes. Even before I made a formalized RTC team, Wyoming would help me out with the thread during its earliest days due to how hard it could be to manage. But managing RTC was harder than it seems, especially when you want it to go in a more constructive direction. As some of you all know, my home life was not the best. Combine that with the fact for over half of this game I was in college, I was not exactly the perfect leader that this game could have had. I remember part of the reason we even formed an RTC team was because I just wa not able to manage the thread reliably at this point. As a result, I ended up reaching out to other users who were invested in the thread at different points to help out. To everyone who helped manage the thread, pre and post RTC team, you all have my thanks and deserve a lot of credit in terms of making this game as good as it was.

One thing I am glad RTC did was it shifted to be much more debate and discussion based due to changes to the rules that I made. At first, this was just to make sure that people were not just dropping two numbers and dipping. But as time went on, it also helped make discussion so much better. Compare Terry’s first day to the SNK day when we put in more of the discussion guidelines. It is like night and day. While I am not certain I would be running RTC when the next smash is revealed, I do think that whoever does helm RTC should try to keep these rules. I will edit the OP one final time just in case anyone will want to steal the ruleset for the next game in case I do not run it.

If I had to point to the day I knew I wanted RTC to shift towards a more persuasive, written format, it would probably be Spyro's first day in RTC. I remember acknowledging that Crash absolutely had to come first and objectively he had a lot of problems, but he was my never ever. Pouring my heart and soul into my Spyro writeup that time did have a noticeable impact on people, and it made me think of RTC as a whole. I know some people do not like the concept of RTC because it means inevitably someone will come along and just give your favorite character or your never ever pick close to double zeros. Heck, I remember back in the Smash 4 days that someone PMed me to please stop nominating Bomberman, because they did not want him to dip out of top ten for want. I wanted RTC to become less of just a game where you came in, tossed in a score or two, left a nomination, and then went along. I wanted it to become a place where you could legitimately make your case and hope to sway people.

I also would say that it is important to say that as much as Smash Speculation is a crapshoot sometimes, RTC did not have the worst track record. We got Ridley, Chrom, Dark Samus, Isabelle, Ken, and King K Rool right for base game. Outside of the gimmie that was Hero, we did get Banjo, Steve, Sora, and XC2 Content right. We also did highlight that Sephiroth and SNK were slept on, and Min Min was the ARMS choice probably. The only thing we did not really get for DLC was Joker (who fun fact was scheduled to be rated but was revealed about a week before his day) and Kazuya. I think part of this is due to how RTC tends to swing a broad net in terms of speculation, but at the end of the day we have had a decent track record. Not perfect mind you, we had some misses in terms of who we said was likely (Crash is the most obvious example, but Bandana Dee is another notable example for instance) as well, but overall, I think this version of RTC did a good job. I hope the next version keeps the impassioned debate while still being for the most part a fair broker.

I know some people also did not like how RTC “trashed” characters, but to be brutally honest the data shows that characters that get discussed in RTC tend to do better when rerated at least in want. Take KOS MOS for example. KOS MOS when rated in RTC saw an upwards tick each time she got rerated, and this was not just due to more KOS MOS fans coming along. I view RTC as a great way to advertise a new character and get them more supporters. Two of my favorite RTC days, SNK day and Adols day, did this so well. I would argue that some characters like Crash did see some boosted support on here due to RTC days and people writing strong arguments to them. RTC offers the unique opportunity for your character to be the center of attention. There is the common criticism that people do not like hearing that their most wanted is unlikely, but at the end of the day that burden is on you. If you think someone is likely, you have the opportunity to make the case for them. I would often link the RTC thread in support threads as a direct invitation for support threads to make the case for their character. But hey, what are you gonna do.

At the end of the day, running RTC was an emotional experience for me. Obviously, there was the fact that plenty of people would grumble when their character came up in RTC, and I won't lie, some people did say some hurtful stuff at the end of the day. But it was great watching the thread evolve. I alos have to say this community helped me out a lot when I was going through all that difficult stuff at home and school, especially once I made the RTC discord (which if you want to be a cool dude join its a fun place). It was great seeing smash speculation evolve and change, and feeling like I at least made a tiny difference. Just seeing people grow to like characters like Reimu,Adol, KOS MOS, heck, even juggernauts like Crash, with RTC serving as perhaps a barometer of how their communities grew, was a great experience.

I know the mods are going to have a “next smash” section, but to be honest, I would implore them to not have a new RTC thread approved until we end up getting a new smash game. I know that we did not have an RTC thread until March 2018 when Ultimate was first teased, so there is some precedent for this. But I also feel like RTC, especially with the changes we made, does not suit a next smash game. We have no idea when a new smash would come out, let alone what it would look like. RTC changed to be more of a debate thread, where you would make your case with evidence and arguments. How would you do that when we don’t even know when the next game will even exist? I would ask the mods to at least hold off on approving a new RTC thread until the time is right.

While I may request that the RTC thread may be held off until the time is right, I do not know if I will be there at that time. When Smash 4 came around and I first joined the forms, I was in high school. I was in 9th grade when we learned about Villager, Mega Man, and Wii Fit Trainer. I was a sophomore in college when I started RTC for Ultimate. By the time the next game comes out, I do not know where I will be in my life or if I will have the time to even do RTC: I barely had the time this time arguably! While I would love to lend a hand in the future or helm it if the situation is right, I am not certain I will be around much longer. I likely will end up not actively participating in the speculation forms: the most I plan on doing is creating the Spyro thread, making a few more support threads, and then focusing on the occasional competitive discussion. Most likely I will reach out to the users I want to keep in contact with after I dip from the forums.

Now then, let me just give a few formal thanks to a few individuals of note.
Sari GoodGrief741 thank you for sticking through with this and helping manage all this. Thanks as well to UtopianPoyzin who previously was more active on the RTC team but took time away from the boards. Another thanks to Wyoming who helped out during the early days.
Megadoomer and NonSpecificGuy for changing the thread title when I would be unable to change it quickly due to being away from the boards. Also thanks to NonSpecificGuy for approving the thread in the first place.
I wanted to also highlight a few people who wrote some amazing essays in rtc. A few of note I wanted to highlight were BluePikmin11 , SharkLord , Mr. MR , and DanganZilla5 for your out of the park essays. To everyone who went above and beyond, thank you.
To the thread regulars, I also want to thank you all for sticking through with it. I know some people have come and gone throughout the game, but it was great to see all of you. There are too many to tag, but you all know who you are. I hope you had as great of a time with the thread as I had running it.
Finally, I just wanna give a friendly shout out to everyone who got their dream character this game. From DaUsername getting K Rool, MasterOfKnees getting Ridley, Sari getting Terry, or Perkilator getting Sora, I am glad that whoever got their most wanted got theirs. To whoever did not, here's hoping next time is the time.

To everyone who participated in the thread, thank you. I know this was not exactly the smoothest road, but it was one I was glad to help lead you all down. I hope you all have the best of luck. Until we meet again.

 

[slrigeigdew]

Some quick predictions before the thread closes. Thanks for the thoughtful discussion for the past 3 years everyone! I didn't participate much but I was always lurking on the side lines. Maybe I'll be a more active contributer next time.
Dread it, run from it, destiny arrives all the same

Metroid Dread is the best performing Metroid game in years so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a promotional pick from that game like how Dark Samus promoted the prime series. Fortunately for Metroid the next Smash game can't come fast enough for the shilling to feel obvious and there's plenty of sick options to chose from like EMMI and Raven Beak. If we can't get the main villain from Metroid Dread as a villain he'd be sick echo fighter for the Metroid Dread inspired Samus in the next game.
Oh, too bad. I get you next time, cheaters!
Characters like Banjo, Ridley and K Rool has shown that the squeakiest wheels gets the grease and there's few supporters loader and more obnoxious than the Waluigi fandom. I'm honestly hoping he gets in so we don't go through another speculation cycle full of several years of screaming and begging for the funny purple meme man. I don't know for sure if Waluigi will ever escape his meme status as an assist trophy but what I do know is that his fanbase will be extremely toxic and claim Captain Toad or whatever stole his rightful spot in a children's party game.
YOU'RE A KID NOW! YOU'RE A SQUID NOW!

One of Nintendo's newest IPs that's successful enough to get a second game before the end of the Switch's lifespan is as safe as a lock you can get when it comes to speculation. However I'm going to go against the grind and say Octolings will be getting the Alph/Hero treatment while a different character will be getting the smash invite. Gonna go all in on a new character from Splatoon 3 that will explode in popularity between the release of Splat 3 and Smash6 ala Isabelle. If no such character exists then I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's going to be either DJ Octavio or the Squid Sisters with Off the Hook taking their spots as ATs. My rationale being that villains are always good and Squid Sisters are the only Splatoon characters to get the deconfirmed trifecta of assist trophy, spirit, and mii costumes.

Feel the burn!

Assuming the next Smash game is a brand new sequel and not a port- which is a safe assumption, Ultimate's not even a full on port of Smash 4- I think it's safe to say that Ms. Fit will be on the cutting block to make way for the new hotness (heh): Ring Fit Trainer. Their gameplay would be a nice marriage between the quirky fitness gimmick from the trainers and the typical JRPG shenanigans the Smash team is so fond of. The fact that their game is currently seeing extremely well and showing no signs of stopping doesn't hurt their chances either. However with no guarantee of a Smash game in the near far future, the support for RFT in Smash won't be race but a marathon.

Problem Officer?

The one pair of spirits I expected to get into Ultimate's DLC but were probably passed up for Xenoblade 2 and ARMS. I do however believe they'll get their second chance in the follow up to Ultimate. I can see them being a new IP to shamelessly promote the sequel either at the start of base game or the end of DLC like Bayo. They'll probably be received as poorly as Byleth due to poor timing and stacked competition but I'd be looking forward to playing them regardless.

I'm going to be a lot less with the 3rd parties since there's literally millions of characters to consider as opposed to the hundreds of thousands from Nintendo games alone. Also going to be focused on companies and individuals we know for a fact have worked with Sakurai and dev team in the past.

New Castlevania/Metal Gear character

Snake is one of the few veterans in Smash whose reveal made the internet lost its collective **** twice in two different games. So I'd be surprised if we didn't get more from this company. We know Alucard was considered at one point so I'd say either him or Raiden from MGR since I feel like he'd be a nice change of pace from the nice prim and proper Anime Swordfighter of the past.

New Capcom rep

With multiple characters, stages, assist trophies, spirits, mii costumes and spirit events post launch, Capcom has supported Ultimate throughout its entire lifespan. I'd be surprised if they don't get a brand new fighter from an unrepresented Capcom series in the ring. My heart says Ace Attorney but my gut says Monster Hunter with how heavily it's been promoted in Nintendo directs. They could also double or triple down on Megaman and Street Fighter respectively.

New Sega/Atlus rep

It's surprising that we've only gotten one Sonic rep with two Sonic stages. Definitely feels like we should have gotten a second one by now, either in the form of a new fighter or echo. But maybe they're more concerned with representing different parts of Sega's legacy with different franchises. I can see Ai Ai or Kiryu from Monkey Ball and Yakuza respectively given the new slot with Joker replaced with the Persona 6 protag and Bayo sporting her new Bayo 3. Sonic is sadly stuck with his boring outdated Brawl moveset with a new Dr Eggman assist trophy.

Indie character

Indie characters went from normal trophies to assist trophies to spirits to mii costumes all in the span of two games. There's high demand for these characters and a dedicated fanbase that will show up in droves to buy the game just for these characters. Best part is because most indies are so niche, supporters for an indie character are really grateful for any attention to their games. Compare the reactions to the Sans and Cuphead mii costumes to say, the Geno mii costume. (No I don't think giving it a head would have helped against the Geno backlash. People have gotten mad over way less.)

A mii costume that was shown in Kazuya's Sakurai Presents

I know this pick is not only incredibly vague but overlaps with some of my other choices but Sakurai himself said these Mii costumes were highly requested so that either means one of two things. Either Dante, Dragonborn, Lloyd and Shantae get the K rool and Chrom treatment or they get the Geno and Doomguy treatment. Only time will tell.


See you guys in the next Smash Game!

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Reimu,Adol, KOS MOS,

Actually, it made me grow to resent the latter two, and reminded me why I had a falling out with the former...

 

[ForsakenM]

I don't think anyone cares about my satisfaction of the DLC for this game because they either see me as some sort of psychotic Geno Fan or they have already seen me say that I'm always down with new content and can't be mad. So, as simply put as possible, FP1 did better than FP2 in my opinion only because FP2 included two characters that should have made base game if Furakawa was in charge early enough in development where as FP1 only included one, but both passes are overall very good.

As for the most likely newcomers, I find that to be a much more interesting topic, and I can easily narrow this down to five for each without cheating with honorable mentions. If you guys care enough to know who I think just barely makes the cut, I can follow up with that at a later date.

1st Party

1. The Wah
   • I know everyone else is bringing him up, but it can't go unsaid how he's the most guaranteed first party newcomer. He is the most-requested Mario character that Nintendo owns for years now and the fact that Piranha Plant got him before him is seriously only because Sakurai thought people were joking when they said they wanted him and the DLC was already set in stone a while back (not to mention that while it's not IMPOSSIBLE for him to be DLC, he definitely feels like a base-game inclusion), so he was never considered.
     
     None of that matters going into a new game, and never forget that each new Smash titles has gotten minimum one new Mario or Mario-tied character (looking at you Senor Peidar) each game much like Pokemon for being such a big series that brings in new main characters fairly often. Putting in any other Mario character before him would be absolutely tone-deaf, and Nintendo and Sakurai have clearly learned the demand is real. There is no way he doesn't get in, as it just benefits everyone, even the haters.
2. The Golden Boy
   • Admittedly, Isaac got done pretty dirty during the course of 2018 Smash news. He was one of the last to be revealed as an AT, and we had a period of time with an item that looked very much like it came from the Golden Sun series. This is in addition to the AT and his music being ripped out of Smash 4 which I think pushed his fanbase to vote for him pretty well. It would seem it was mistaken that was for his previous content to return, but with Sunfall and all his fans banding together and the outcry Nintendo received after the reveal, I find him to be in a very similar situation to to The Wah.
3. (alternatively )
   • I see a lot of people here either choosing lesser recurring and iconic picks or just being so unsure or afraid of being wrong that they say 'A Zelda rep' but I'm calling it right now: there is no other choice than Skull Kid, and this is coming from someone who is just now getting into Zelda as a series. I have played OOT, MM, WW and I'm currently playing TP and this has all happened within this year, and I'm telling you Skull Kid is the clear-cut choice. Midna is cool and I've come to love her, but so far she's only been in one game outside of a spin-off. Some people are saying Impa, but most of her appearances are her being an old woman who doesn't do much, and when she's useful she's a Shiekah and the version of Shiek we have in Smash is considered to be the original Shiek...so she would likely be an echo or semi-echo at best. Skull Kid is more iconic than the Four Champions, Tetra is just the less-powerful and less-capable pirate Zelda, and I'm sure nobody really wants Toon OR BotW Zelda when given the opportunity for a unique inclusion for the Zelda series after this many years.
     
     Skull Kid has less appearances than Impa but has the same pull as Midna for having a whole game where he was one of the key roles. I think he also has the most demand to be playable in Smash, at least enough that Sakurai felt he had to extensively clarify in his Smash 4 Miiverse post about Skull Kid's AT. Additionally, much like The Wah and The Golden Boy, due to the whole Chair Theory and LoZ18 stuff going on at the time he got a lot of push and support before people checked the website one day to see he was still and AT. Don't forget that there was a time between The Moon being a new AT and us not knowing Skull Kid was an AT again, and I think the Moon being included as an AT could have been an early desire to bring in a new Zelda character for base-game...but even if not, it's the perfect way to have a MM AT and still promote Skull Kid. He's also a character that represents the darker bits of the Zelda series, with a good chance that he could make an appearance in BotW 2 since he tends to show up in darker Zelda titles, which would also make him more recently relevant...not that he needs it. He also shares something else with The Wah in that he fits well as a base-game inclusion like Ridley or K. Rool in that, as much as I would like a new Zelda stage, he doesn't have to bring anything but himself.
4. Goombario
   • As much as I adore the fairy and the artist from the older N64 days, I can see the writing on the wall: the generic enemy turned fellow companion and main-stay via the power of a simple headdress and learning the art of wielding an elongated melee weapon is the frontrunner for Kirby inclusions.
     
     Sure, there is talk about Magalor and Marx, a bit about Gooey and Susie, a tad about Taranza and Rick + Kine + Coo...but it all boils down to the fact that BWD has the most support and is the loudest out of all Kirby requests, and we all know that Sakurai and his team would have no trouble giving him a moveset. He also has many things that favor him for a new game, such as needing to only bring himself (much like The Wah and The Imp) and the fact that Kirby got snubbed for a rep in Ultimate (at least Zelda got Young Link's return) could easily make that a focus for a new title. I also think people unfairly link BWD being a Post-Sakurai-Working-On-Kirby Era character with 'Sakurai hates everything about Kirby after he left' which I don't think is true: he himself has aged and changed as a person and as a developer, and above all of that he knows and cares about what the fans of his series are saying and feeling, so even if for some reason he harbors distain for BWD I doubt that would stop him from putting the character in Smash. He's not nearly that petty of a person.
5. Ready To Scrap Since Brawl
   • I know it may sound a bit weird to bring her up, but I think Dixie Kong may finally get her chance to shine here. Once again she fits the shape of not needing to bring any new content but herself, and she has plenty going on to make her unique but could be an echo if need be. She's a popular pick and was supposed to show up as far back as Brawl, and the DK franchise is still poorly represented with only three characters so, with the odds of a new game on the way being incredibly high, this might be the perfect set of circumstances for the original flying kong. Not much more to say here, other than she came back in Tropical Freeze and this made a lot of people happy, so I think Nintendo would understand who would be next in line for a DK rep.

3rd Party

1. Oh Boy! Who didn't see this one coming!
   • Wow, the Geno Fan says Geno is likely for the next Smash game! What a shocker! Better move past this and look at his other mentions since this one was so obvious and clearly he won't have rational arguments.
     
     ...
     
     Alright, for those of you who stuck around, here are said rational arguments.
     
     It's clear that Geno did well enough between his push before Brawl and his votes in the Ballot that he was worth being recognized, but the biggest problem is that Square is a company that is very good at making characters people love, and that long list has a lot of big names on it that would obviously supersede him in importance if they were obtainable. However, Cloud, Sephiroth, Sora and an extremely large chunk of DQ are all in the game already...so who else stands in his way should they all make their return in the next title?
     
     Well people might argue for Lara Croft or Neku or Crono or 2B, and while I would tip my hat to the 2B fans and note her recent success, there is just too much for Geno in terms of past events that it would be very the same situation if another Square character got in before him as if another Mario character got in before The Wah. It's very clear that Geno is and/or was the most supported Square character this side of the X-Blade, and the push for him after Sakurai's interview is a wave that did nothing but gain massive momentum and surge from the reveal of Ultimate in combination with a later tweet from NoA just pushed the support to such a high before the massive crash in Dec 2020. There was a reason so many fake leaks, no matter how much content they had, often included or were about Geno as he was the name to include to get noticed at the time. Even still the support is there, even if it's not as massive or weighty anymore, but I feel as though new Smash title can whip all that back into shape.
     
     Between working with Square to get SMRPG into Smash in other ways (Spirits, icons, multiple enemy names mentioned and the original inclusion/return of his costume) which proves no one at Nintendo or Square are against working for an inclusion, the fact that Geno is by and large the biggest Square request now and was fighting for the biggest request throughout Ultimate, the clear feedback from both Smash 4 and Dec 2020 of how this isn't what was desired, Sakurai's clear desire to include him for years now coupling with Furakawa giving more creative control to devs, and how every other big name that would be a 100% clear choice to pick before him has already been added paints a pretty clear picture and one I would most definitely like to see finally hung on Smash's wall. Hell, if Nintendo and Sakurai can work with Square and Disney to get Sora in Smash, Geno can absolutely happen with ease.
     
     I know it won't sit well with people for me to tell them, as a Geno Fan and this history this site has with them, that if they aren't factoring him in as a serious contender then they are letting some sort of lack of being informed or bias cloud them...but it's true. Funnily enough, it may just be that fallout in Dec 2020 that gets Geno in the next game: our worst moment as representations of his support may end up being the biggest part to play for his future inclusion.
2. Big Mac
   • I get that Microsoft now owns Doom Guy, but let us be honest with ourselves: we got the animal duo people clamored for well over a decade and the funny block man who has been around for just around a decade. Both of these characters are absolute titans in their own rights and ways...but Xbox has only ever had one mascot, and the fact that they allowed us to have these two before Meister Chafe is absolutely insane and just shows both how in-tune they are with what people want as well as how much they are willing to forgo to give it and to work with Nintendo.
     
     However, I can almost guarantee he shows up next. It only makes sense, and I doubt Microsoft could have it any other way. It's just all about waiting for the next Smash to see it come to fruition. He may not have finished the pass, but he will give the Smash fandom back their hype...just give it some time.
3. Big Chungus
   • I know this is probably also a very common pick, but the demon-slaying comedy-and-cool-edge-mixing wacky woohoo pizza man is incredibly likely to the point where I think he is a lock. He was already a very beloved Capcom character before the craze that pushed him so hard WAY too late to be made for Ultimate, but there is no doubt that Sakurai and Nintendo took note of said craze and jotted it down in their secret journal of who is coming next that is disguised to appear as a boring 1,000 page textbook on quantum theory.
     
     Capcom has many franchises to pick from, but they already know the massive hype Dante has had throughout a good share of Ultimate's DLC so they would be a fool not to include him, even if they get another character as well. In fact, I think Capcom getting fairly stiffed this entire game and only getting an Echo through all of Ultimate's life-cycle really sets them up pretty for at least one character, more than likely a few I would think. Even if Dante isn't the first Capcom rep to show up I believe he's basically confirmed after this hype cycle.
4. OO-GA-DA-BAH!
   • I think this character really can't help but be in a really good spot. I mean, when you go over everything that has happened during this cycle in terms of Activision's clear desperation to push the Crash Bandicoot into the spotlight, they would be foolish not to put this marsupial in Smash. I think they were just late to the draw like many of these other big names that got a lot of traction after everything was set in stone.
     
     He fits in well, he's one of the most requested, is very popular in recent times, and the best part is that MOST people can use the power of separation to not let what happened with Activision-Blizzard to affect how they feel about a character that was not even originally theirs upon initial creation and realize how much more important it is that the face of Playstation mascots back in the day gets into Smash then to punish a fictional character and their fans over the horrible corruption of the company that bought them. I think that other than The Wah this goofy spinning orange mammalian is the perfect way to get people to sign up for the next Smash as a base-game reveal.
5. Super Moe
   • I haven't seen him brought up in a single post yet and I'm honestly surprised, looks like I may have found something that people have missed yet again. I think the Uncrowned King Travis Touchdown himself has one of the best chances of showing up in the next Smash title. He had a decent amount of support and his new game finally came out this year and while it's still a bit early for numbers, I'm seeing it being very well received over multiple different sites and sources, so I think his support will stay strong...but that's not even the biggest thing going for him.
     
     You guys remember back during Melee's production when Kojima wanted Sakurai to put Snake in Smash but it was too late in said production, so he asked Sakurai later and it happened? Man, this reeks of a very similar setup here and I really won't be surprised if that is exactly how he gets into the next Smash title. He would be very easy to make work in the game and can simply be toned down just like Bayonetta or any other character as his core design isn't overly offensive of based in being explicit or revealing.

As for the feelings of the RTC thread ending for now, I really don't feel any different than usual: not only did I rarely post here, but it was during that window of time where people groaned at the site of a dirty puppet lover, so it wasn't exactly the highlight of speculation for me.

The way I see it is that, just because some mods decide this thread is closed, doesn't mean speculation is over. Just because Ultimate had gotten what it likely it's last major content update doesn't mean speculation is over. It just means we enter a period of being in the dark on when we will get anything more for Smash and a blissful sense of peace as other Nintendo titles get to hog the spotlight and discussion so that all the ridiculous hatred of hating on people for what characters they want can drain out of people's systems. We can relax and enjoy anything Nintendo sends our way and make love instead of war for a set period of time before going back to ripping out hearts and stomping on dreams over choices of fictional characters that don't line up with our personal visions.

All the while, small tidbits will surface. Instead of people constantly looking forward to the next Smash news that is inevitable and shaking so hard for anxious anticipation that they practically discover a new speedrun glitch, we will get just the tiniest bits of rumblings that SOMETHING is happening, but what we will not know and there won't be any agonizing wait for those who can't handle it as nothing is set in stone. It will be just enough to keep people talking and thinking until Nintendo strikes hard and catches 3/4s of the community off guard with a reveal while the other 25% pieced together the small bits and knew what was up and coming.

Speculation doesn't end because a staff member closes a thread. Speculation doesn't end because a game's content updates are coming to a close. Speculation doesn't end because most people stop talking about something.

Speculation ends when YOU choose to stop digging around and talking about it. Once you make that decision for yourself, that's when it stops, because you detach yourself from that entire circle and remain ignorantly blissful until it suddenly happens like magic. For some people, that's what is better for them: they can't handle talking about the same things day by day and being conscious about impending news month after month only to be wrong 90% of the time.

For me, this is what I live for. Getting as close as I can to what actually happening before it goes public, and going back to see where I was right , where I was wrong, what I should have stuck by and what I should have let go. That slow burn of hype knowing SOMETHING is coming and trying to peace it together over a long period of time and getting excited over what it could be and coming up with your take and debating with others while putting the pieces together is a weird thrill, and while even I need breaks from it now and again, I will never truly put the breaks on my speculation...those it does help that I tend to speculate Nintendo announcements as a whole, branching into video game announcements as a whole instead of just Smash.

But, I think Smash speculation really is the most fun, all the silly feuds aside.

EDIT: I tried better spacing for the above portion, but DerpBoards doesn't like it, so this is what we got here folks. Sorry in advance if it doesn't look as neat, I really tried. Blame the site's limited bullet and paragraph formatting.

 

[ProfPeanut]

"I know now, without a doubt. Super Smash Bros... is light!"

This final day really has me looking back at my time in RTC. Man, look how far we come.

RTC had some truly legendary days back in 2018, didn't it? Just look at the very first Sora discussion day. Look at how people assumed Disney would never let this obscure anime boy get hurt, or that the costs outweigh the benefits. Look at the first Steve day, and see if anyone bet that Steve's reveal would be so big that Twitter would crash. Heck, lots of hilariously off-kilter predictions: Pyra and Mythra without Rex was as close to a 0% as any non-meme nomination ever got, although people weren't wrong in that they ended up more as typical swordsmen with a simple stat swap mechanic. Who knew trying to fit Rex into that would've be the one thing too complicated for them to do? And of course, let's not forget when the idea of "No Cuts" was first floated around. People mostly shot it down as impossible wistful thinking, as Smash had never kept everyone before.

You'd think we knew nothing at all. Heck once upon a time, our three most probable Pokemon candidates were Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc. But granted, we didn't know that Sora actually was an impossibility all the way up to the middle of 2019, so who knows! Maybe all those obstacles we thought were in the way had merit! Or maybe none of it would have been enough for the canonical winner (!!) of the Smash Ballot. Boy, just look at all the naysayers we could tag right now and pull back for one last laugh at our off-kilter predictions. (I know I made a horribly scathing prediction on Sephiroth's chances, but so did plenty of others.)

I may not have said very much, but I'm glad I had the chance to make the case for Arle Nadja and Sans (and Undertale by extension). I can only hope that those words have some ripple effect in the future, if they ever get back to pulling third-parties for Smash again. Though who knows, maybe Deltarune would be stronger case at that point?

It's a shame we couldn't cover literally everyone before the game's final main Direct in November 2018. Not enough time in those few months we had...but then, too much time afterwards, stretching out DLC discussion over three long years. Combined with the slow pace, I left early in 2019, but I'm glad to see that the thread was able to stick around up to now. I know I said a number of unkind things in my frustration with the thread's pace, and I want to apologize to TCT~Phantom for all that - looking back at how much time we really had, that prime period of speculation was always going to end before we could have covered everyone.

If there's anything I really appreciated about this thread, besides that it was a long and engaging activity for the entire year that seemed to exist only to await Ultimate's release, it was that it was the one place where people could discuss the merits of any and every possibility. And ultimately, I hope that's the main piece of good that people take away from RTC - that it could expose us all to ideas and characters we'd never have considered before. To have us sit down and actually talk about the idea of Terry or Steve in Smash, to count just how many hurdles Sora would have had to cross, to weigh the benefits of each ARMS character or Gen 7 Pokemon as a possible fighter, to consider that maybe, just maybe, they'd represent Undertale somehow.

I know there were a lot of users who got the opposite of what they wanted in Ultimate (as vocally demonstrated in their arguments), and I hope that the discussions they read here, if they couldn't change your mind, could at least have softened the blow of learning that the timeline wouldn't go the way you wanted. Because not only is the selection process more arbitrary than what we imagine it to be, but ultimately, the "who" of who gets into Smash is only half of the equation - the "how" can be just as difficult, and if there's anything Ultimate proved, it's that there's almost no candidate at all where that's truly impossible.

Boy howdy though, you can bet Geno and Jonesy Fortnite will return with a vengeance next time, with their new friends Venti Genshin and Impostor Amongus

 

[3BitSaurus]

Well, since I contributed a lot during the first Pass and the beginning of the second, I think it's only fair that I make one final prediction. Don't blame me if I'm a bit more general with some, though ~

Five First Parties

The Wah
Let's get this one out of the way first. With Ridley and K. Rool now in, I think Waluigi will take the spot of the big, fan-demanded first party. Even if the next game has cuts to the Mario cast, I can't see any of them overshadowing Waluigi except for Bowser Jr. And since Mario is one of Nintendo's biggest IPs, it's probably a situation where they'd be killing two birds with one stone.

Fly, Octo, Fly
With Splatoon getting its third entry soon, it's officially surpassed several other Nintendo IPs in terms of modern relevance. It's arguably one of Nintendo's most successful new IPs and perhaps one of the fastest growing ones in a long time. The fact that it grew as big as it did even starting on a console like the Wii U should be a testament to its potential.

And I don't think Nintendo will let this marketing opportunity slip by. Whether we get Octoling as an Echo, a semiclone, or someone else entirely is the big question, but I'll be really surprised if we end Smash 6 with Splatoon still having only one playable character.

Anime Swordsman #9
Look, I don't want this either, but the fact of the matter is that for two games in a row, FE was at the right place in the right time to get a rep promoting the newest game. I personally see no reason to see why this pattern would be broken now though I'd love if it was, especially because Three Houses has pretty much become the best selling game in the franchise. That's... pretty much all I have to say on the matter.

Pocket Monster #9
...Pretty much the same as FE, but even more guaranteed. I mean, Sakurai has gone on record pretty much saying that Pokémon has slots reserved for it (at least since Smash 4) and they figure out who to put in later. Regardless of whether we get a future Gen 9 mon or maybe Gen 8 if the ninth isn't out yet, I think it's a safe bet.

Stretch These Muscles
Much like Splatoon last gen, Ring Fit Adventure ended up being the sleeper hit of the Switch. I distincly remember people kina laughing at the idea at first, but as it turns out the game has a surprising amount of depth put into it and sold ridiculously well. If there's any particular Switch IP that would be brought back into consideration for next game, my bets would be on RFA.


Five Third Parties

The Tale Yet Untold
With Tekken being promoted, I genuinely think Tales Of is next. Don't know if it would be Lloyd, Yuri or someone completely different, but it's one of the few IPs among Japanese juggernauts without a playable character yet, and the fan demand is clearly there.

Capsule Computers
This one is a bit more generic, but between Monster Hunter getting more content than any other third party without a character, as well as Resident Evil and Devil May Cry being acknowledged via Spirits, I'd be really surprised if we ended next game without a new Capcom rep. Even with those aforementioned series being juggernauts without playable presence, there are still other options, like Chun-Li and Zero for promotions and smallerIPs like Ace Attorney and GnG.

Smash Does What Nintendon't
Similar to Capcom, I think we'll get another Sega rep. Eggman will probably dominate speculation, but I think there's quite a few options, ranging from Yakuza to Puyo to Phantasy Star to Streets of Rage to Virtua Fighter and possibly more. Given how we've got a new Sega rep every game since Brawl, I think it's a distinct possibility.

He'll Get His Chance Next Time
With Terry now in, and being surprisingly easy to acquire (and probably returning next game), I think a "proper" KoF is next in line. Admittedly, I'm 100% biased in this, but given how Terry doesn't cover KoF mechanics at all and Sakurai himself has a past with the franchise, I'd say there's a strong chance. I'm personally rooting for Kyo, but I can't deny the possibility of getting Iori instead.

Welcome To Smash Rift
I think it's only fair that I end on this. With LoL, one of the biggest western IPs you could get, becoming one of the most watched eSports in Japan through 2020 and finally getting a mobile version, plus several games on the Switch and the relations between nintendo and Riot's parent company, you all best not sleep on League. Otherwise you risk getting ganked.

In terms of character choices, I'm personally pulling for Ahri (as you all should know), but there's a lot they could go for. I recently did a few writeups on the Newcomer thread about 10 of League's characters (which total over 150). There's a lot of optionsand aspects of League (and MOBAs in general) that could be represented well in a fighting game. It was a pleasure to introduce some here to the possibility, and I hope I get to talk more about it next cycle.

And with this, I close my last post on the RTC for Ultimate. Thanks to this thread, I also learned a lot about options I didn't really consider before, and also got a chance to boost some franchises I love. Thanks for the discussions, everyone, and I hope we can have some of these again come next game.

 

[DaUsername]

Bye, thread. I'll miss you.