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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,393
Location
New Jersey
Rex is the new Spring Man: 60% I guess. I don't mind their inclusion but Pythra have nothing going for me in particular. They were kinda just... huh, that happened. Oh well. Not everybody's a winner but at least they're not a loser.

The weakest capitalist: 90%. Yodeling goes a long way IMO otherwise it'd be more like a 75%. Despite the incident which turned out to not matter at all, I always thought Tekken would actually be a pretty cool choice even if I and many others pigeonholed Heihachi as the top dog choice. He is fun to use and his stage is neat too. Yeah I was already kinda clocked out of Smash so I don't have much of an opinion on Kazuya.

I'll pay for this.: 80%. I have a bunch of friends excited for Sora (one of whom was his most wanted) and one guy who is absolutely devastated that Sora happened after Kazuya (two of his least wanted). So, I guess I'm mostly happy. I like Hand in Hand, glad that's in Smash now.

Volume 2 satisfaction: 50%. It's weird but I actually think this pass is much worse than the sum of its parts. The parts where it was slow going were very slow and speculation was unbearably awful both because it was too restrictive and not restrictive enough. It felt like enough agony that my interest in Smash entirely fizzled out as I was more focused on other things, then it came back for Mods but never the official stuff. When divorced from speculation it's more like a 75, really good but nobody that spoke to me. That's fine though, the world doesn't revolve around me.
 

slrigeigdew

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
300
Location
Colorado
The original plan was to do sora after he came out, but with Newcomer Speculation closing only a few days after we had to hasten the schedule, originally FP1 was going to be two days and we were going to do a day for World of Light, Spirits, and Online. We were expecting about a week of time post Sora when planning the schedule, which we did not get. Trust me, I wish we could have done this a few days later, but that really was not in the cards.
I know, that line was more of a jab at the community in general and not this thread specifically. Sucks we have to do it now when the character is right around the corner but it is what it is.

Volume 2 satisfaction: 50%. It's weird but I actually think this pass is much worse than the sum of its parts. The parts where it was slow going were very slow and speculation was unbearably awful both because it was too restrictive and not restrictive enough. It felt like enough agony that my interest in Smash entirely fizzled out as I was more focused on other things, then it came back for Mods but never the official stuff. When divorced from speculation it's more like a 75, really good but nobody that spoke to me. That's fine though, the world doesn't revolve around me.
I'm glad someone else was able to put what I've been feeling into words. The speculation period between Min Min and Steve felt like it was too restrictive while the time between Kazuya and Sora wasn't restricted enough. Hell, the time between Byleth and Min Min felt too restrictive because people refused to commit to a single ARMS fighter and insisted we'd get multiple reps, an idea that would only work if you created a moveset that's even more basic and generic than what we were given. If I had to factor in speculation I would also be giving it a 50%
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,646
Anime Zelda and Sheik - 55%

I felt Rex should have gotten in before them. Still, the combination of the series felling gypped alongside some time made me feel at least happy that Xenoblade 2 would get a character.

"Frodo, you must cast the ring into the Volcano!" - 40%

Another Fighting Game character, another one that I know I can't play. I know even less about it than Street Fighter, nor do I particularly care.

Now even Disney has it's horrible tendrils in Smash... - 45%

I know that I should be happy for those who wanted him in... but I just can't. Considering how little of the pass appealed to me, the feeling of being left out one last time has burnt me out. He's kind of become a symbol of what Ultimate, or at least it's DLC season, has become to me: everyone getting their dreams come true... except mine. Maybe I'll feel better about with time, but right now I'm just disappointed.

Overall - 49.16%

The average of my scores, and it's fairly close to what I would have done anyways. Not surprising, considering that I got two characters that I was okay with last pass compared to this pass's one.

I guess this comes from having RPGs and Fighting Games be my least favorite genres. That made inherently less interested in most of the offerings.
 

Aligo

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
35
I will give this a go, why not?

I genuinely can't describe how good this was for me personally- 100%

Two years ago, on the source gameing mw ballot, I actually put solo Pyra as my mw. Never in a hundred years did I think that such a thing would come to pass, thinking that the Xenoblade would get no extra content in ultimate. The reveal came as a complete shock, and really made the March direct great. I will edit this later to give my thoughts on each aspect of this pack, as I have a lot to say and need time to come up with a full explaination.


The Mishima gene is scarier than the devil one. - 65%

While the reveal trailer was rather dull, and the moveset overcomplicated, I can appreciate the legacy of Tekken as a series. The music selection was quite expansive and the stage was neat, with the breakable walls and stuff, the suit alts make Kazuya look real menacing. Yodelling. That also.

Soccer guys 5 year nightmare - 60%

Sora must mean a lot to people to garner such a large reaction. I am mostly neutral on this one having never played KH, most likey due to having a substantial dislike of disney. Can't be mad because the stage and rubberhose alt look good. abit of a shame on the music side though, not many tracks.
Still a good pick regardless.

Overall - 100%

It was never going to be a perfect pass, given the sheer diversity of requests, and the limited number of slots, not to mention the issues with development and licensing. I am putting 100% just beacause of the fp9, because after that, I have been fufilled, and have become much more positive about ultimate. I can only hope that they do another ballot, so those that didn't get the content they clamoured can have a chance for their voices be heard and their dreams made true.
 

Double0Groove

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 6, 2015
Messages
658
Honker Donker Doinky Boinkies: 75%

I wasn't personally excited for Pyra/Mythra, but their fanbase's enthusiasm was utterly infectious. Otherwise, everything from the trailer to the stage to the gameplay was hit or miss, and fighting against Mythra is a total drag (Pyra's alright though). The music racks tracks we got were naturally top tier. As someone who played Xenoblade 2 to near completion, I am confident that the only characters from that game that could've gotten me more excited for a Xenoblade rep would either be Rex (exclusively because it would've officially debunked the whole "Miii costumes deconfirm characters" argument) or one of the DLC characters... Still kinda bummed that We didn't get a Xenoblade X rep instead..


The Prince of all Saiyans: 70%

I've gotta admit, Kazuya didn't do it for me at first, but the rest of his trailer after the initial reveal was good enough to get me to accept him with open arms. Even more so for the sheer amount of moves shown after the trailer and the presentation afterward. I love his stage, the music he came with is hit or miss for me, and his playstyle doesn't really mesh well with mine, but I love seeing him in action... Fighting him on the other hand... I've got a love/hate experience with my bouts against those who main him. It's normally always down to the wire whether or not I get to beat him, which makes his fights fun when I win, but I always feel cheated when I lose.


Finally, the perfect clown shoes to complete my outfit: 100%

I was surprised at how tense I was before the big reveal. I had confidence that he was going to be the last character, but my heart was beating out of my chest and going a mile a minute. I saw the fire and was completely lost as to who it could be and when I saw Mario compose himself, I could only feel gratitude as I thought I'd be prepared for the final character only to see that it actually WAS Sora. This is my favorite trailer, if only for the fact that it was perfectly mirrored my emotional reaction when viewing it. Whether he's good or bad, Sora will be my new main. I love his stage, I'm happy with the music selection, but I would've loved more (even through another MoM tie-in), and his moveset looks like it's made of dreams.

There's no such thing as an impossible character folks.

Fighters pass 2 overall rating: 95%
As an experience that I had mostly removed from the speculation crowd, This was great fun. Especially with that strong ending! With a largely fun cast and the lack of credible leaks on top of it, I can't say there was a moment that genuinely disappointed me.

I might as well do the others while I'm here:
Piranha Plant: 95% I didn't choose the Plant Gang, the Plant Gang chose me...
Joker: 100% This was the first trailer that truly got me excited for Ultimate's roster. I love using him.
Hero: 50%-70% I love using him, his stage is cool, don't care for the music or the characters themselves. The trailer for them didn't leave a strong impression until I saw this. For that alone, I'd bump my satisfaction up by 20%.
Banjo: 60% The fans carried my hype for him and still do, I always feel the love of their character whenever I see someone using them online.
Terry: 90% His trailer was great, he has the best stage, the reveal for his music was hype and he's the most fun to fight against. What more could you want?
Byleth: 80% I loved the inclusion out of spite for the toxic community speculating about characters. The moveset was also fun too.
Min-Min: 95% Min-Min for the Win-Win
Steve: 85% Another Spite fueled enjoyment factor that's also carried by the infectious fan hype. He's fun to play too. like, REALLY fun.
Sephiroth: 100% Easily the best trailer and I'm completely infatuated by his inclusion as a FF fan. The only downside is that he wasn't Ultimate's version of Sm4sh Bayo and Brawl Meta-knight.
Fighters Pass 1: 50% All of these characters were leaked except for Byleth and Plant. And even then, a lot of characters were being unconfirmed left and right prior to their reveal. Speculation-wise this was a nightmare, but the characters and their stages were mostly fun at least.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,388
I know that I should be happy for those who wanted him in... but I just can't. Considering how little of the pass appealed to me, the feeling of being left out one last time has burnt me out. He's kind of become a symbol of what Ultimate, or at least it's DLC season, has become to me: everyone getting their dreams come true... except mine. Maybe I'll feel better about with time, but right now I'm just disappointed.
I know the feeling all too well. While I was super happy about Banjo-Kazooie, I didn't get that super meaningful dreams come true character either. Closest I got as a Mii costume with Kazuya's wave.
 

Jondolio

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 7, 2021
Messages
2,113
I missed every other satisfaction rating, so I'll do all of them at once.

:ultinkling: 95% - I have played very little of Splatoon 1 and 2 and have enjoyed the core gameplay, but haven't gotten into either since they're so multiplayer focused. Still, Inkling to me feels like a character who would just be weird not to include, even if we all saw it coming. I like the moveset as well, it's very fun. I just hope Splat3 will have more single player content for folks like me who refuse to pay for NSO

:ulticeclimbers::ultsquirtle::ultivysaur:EVERYONE IS :ultsnake: HERE!:ultpichu::ultyounglink::ultwolf: 100% - I never thought this would happen and I'm so glad to be wrong. I may have not been a huge advocate of Young Link and Pichu returning but I'm still glad they're here, especially the latter as it's one of my favorite characters to play as. Having the entire cast of the previous game is amazing as well and honestly? Sakurai could've easily stopped after this and the Inklings. The fact that he didn't bumps it up to a 100000%.

:ultdaisy: 65% - Daisy was a character that I actively did not want due to a certain fan of hers who will not be named, plus having her in without Waluigi kinda rubbed me the wrong way. Still, I can only get so upset at a low effort clone, plus she's grown on me overtime. I actually like her more than Peach.

:ultridley:100% - I still remember when this guy was an impossibility. There was constant arguing over whether or not he's too big, and yet here he is. I wasn't a huge Ridley supporter, but I still wanted him for his fans and I'm thrilled for them that their character actually made it in. His playstyle is also right up my alley as he feels great to control.

:ultsimon: 90% - I've been a casual Castlevania fan since before Belmonts' inclusions (only played the classic games so far though the later games are on my backlog) so I was naturally happy to see them get in, even if part of me thinks Alucard would've been the better choice. The Castlevania stage is one of my favorites in the game with an amazing music selection, and I think Simon looks really good in Ultimate, plus I love playing as him. However...

:ultrichter: 100% - Richter's inclusion makes Simon redundant in my opinion. I usually pick a random character but if I want to pick a Belmont, I'll pick Richter - I just like his design and personality way more. I've never played Rondo of Blood but I've been wanting to for the longest time, and Richter being in makes me want to play it even more. I don't even care that they're nearly identical.

:ultchrom: 95% - I like Chrom as a character and even though I didn't actively want him, he definitely got snubbed in Sm4sh, so I'm happy he finally got his chance. I already like Roy so the transition to playing as him was natural, terrible recovery be damned.

:ultdarksamus: 75% - When she was revealed, I rolled my eyes since she was an extremely overspeculated character at the time, which rubs me the wrong way, and she doesn't feel to different compared to playing Samus (who I rather enjoy playing as). Still, she's really well animated and the fact Metroid went from just having Samus playable to having four characters is really cool.

:ultkrool: 100% - Yes. Just yes. He was one of my most wanted and when Ridley was revealed, I knew he was probably coming, but like Ridley it still feels surreal to seem him on the CSS. For the longest time the Smash roster had a massive fat kremling shaped hole and I'm so happy it got filled. He's also one of my favorite characters to play as hands down, I just feel so damn powerful landing those hits. And that's without even mentioning the godlike remix of Gangplank Galleon he came with. Easily my favorite newcomer for this game.

:ultisabelle: 80% - Like Inkling, this is another one that would've been kind of weird if she wasn't in, but on a smaller scale. I'm not an Animal Crossing fan as I like having an actual end goal in my games (I've played New Leaf back in the day and dropped it after realizing this), but I do think Isabelle is a cute character and I don't mind her presence. Her playstyle is pretty fun, but I don't know if I prefer her over Villager.

:ultken: 75% - Not a fan of Street Fighter (I've played 2 and hated it, hopefully I can find a good starting point since I do want to get into the series), but I can appreciate his inclusion. I like his personality more than Ryu but I can't really get a good grasp on how to play either of them since I'm not used to command inputs. He also loses points for getting revealed alongside...

:ultincineroar: 1% - was legitimately going to go for a 0% here but I don't think that's fair considering I can get some enjoyment out of playing as them, but not overly since they're so slow and their recovery is garbage. It's weird, because before they got into Smash I genuinely liked Incineroar due to their fun personality and animations in the games, but there were so many factors that just led my opinion to take a sudden 180.
The first and most obvious one is that I supported another gen 7 Pokemon for the roster, that being Decidueye. And it wasn't just in passing or just because they're a grass type like with most people, no, Decidueye was legitimately my most wanted character. They still are. I genuinely think there was potential for an archery focused moveset and yeah, I genuinely like the Pokemon as it's my third favorite overall - first being the one in my avatar, Chandelure, and the second being my Smash main, Greninja. And it wasn't easy being a Decidueye supporter - before E3 2018, they were popular, you had to argue that you didn't just want them because "muh grass" and explain why they're a genuinely good choice without that factor, only for E3 to reveal that every Pokemon is returning, including Ivysaur, causing a good chunk of their supporter to stop caring since there's already a lot of playable Pokemon and a grass rep is there, but Decidueye still had some push. Then Vergeben disconfirmed Decidueye (along with Mimikyu and Lycanroc, which I didn't want personally), and after Simon was confirmed and gave him more credibility, Decidueye discussion pretty much died out and everyone turned to Incineroar. At this point I left Smashboards altogether since no one would take discussion of my MW seriously, and overspeculation soured me on the concept of Incineroar making it in. What fueled the fire even more is that one time on Twitter when I expressed hope that Decidueye will make it in over Incineroar, I got harassed and spammed by an Incineroar fan.
Then, the grinch leak happened. At that point I already lost hope for Decidueye, but the grinch leak had Isaac, another character I really wanted to see, Geno, who I was warming up to and saw as the "good timeline" since I believed the box theory and believed we will only be getting two characters, and several other fan favorites who while I didn't personally care for, were much more enticing options than Incineroar, who I was actively dreading at this point. So despite the fact I should've probably known better since Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers, I believed it, and that was the absolute worst setup for disappointment I could've ever done to myself.
Come November 1st, the trailer opened with Ken, which gave me hope, only for Tony the tiger to show up midway through shatter my hopes and dreams into pieces. It legitimately ruined the rest of my day. I actually cried the day afterwards. It took me two months to fully get over the disappointment only to learn that Decidueye was actually considered and nearly got in instead, which just made my distate for Incineroar start anew. Almost 3 years later, I still can't fully come to terms with it. I don't understand why Incineroar's "wrestler" shtick was more unique than Decidueye's full archer set. Especially considering we have several characters that already perform the wrestling moves that Incineroar does, including newcomer K. Rool, but much fewer projectile focused characters. Incineroar's command grab is pretty fun to use, I'll admit, but I don't think it justifies Incineroar's spot on the roster over the much more unique Decidueye. The fact last year's popularity poll had Decidueye rank higher than Incineroar just goes to show how poorly this decision has aged, in my opinion.
I'm sorry if this sounds petty, but Incineroar's inclusion over Decidueye will forever be the sticking point of Ultimate's roster to me personally, and the only thing holding this roster back from being absolutely perfect in my eyes. I admire Sakurai a lot, but this to me is just the one thing I will never agree with him on. Doesn't help that unlike my other MWs, Decidueye absolutely does not have another chance, and will never get in. This was his one chance. I was this close to getting my MW but lost out to the damn cereal mascot. I'm sorry if you like Incineroar, but he just doesn't do it for me.

:ultpiranha: 70% - So Plant's inclusion was initially the one bright spot about that November 1st Smash direct where the worst case scenario happened and most of my MWs were disconfirmed. Still, as time went on I kinda soured on him due to all the Plant gang memes rubbing me the wrong way. Still, I do enjoy playing as him and find him a very inspired choice for a newcomer, even if he's probably my least favorite DLC character.

:ultjoker:100% - I watched The Game Awards 2018 live for some reason. This was back when I watched nearly every gaming related thing that came out because there was a chance for Nintendo news, It was mostly unremarkable, until that legendary moment where Joker grabbed the invitation. I was only a little familiar with P5 since I had friends who talked about it a whole bunch so I - pun fully intended - never saw it coming. The best thing about that reveal is that it wan't even framed as a Smash reveal and for all I knew could've been just a Persona 5 spinoff that I wouldn't give a rat's ass about since I wasn't into Persona at the time, and it came completely out of left field. As of now I still haven't played a Persona game, but I bought Persona 4 Golden on Steam and have definite plans to play it as well as 5 Royal as soon as I get a PS5. Also I ****ing love playing as Joker, I actually managed to pull of a combo with him the other day which is something I rarely do and it felt so damn good. Not to mention the Mementos stage and Persona OST were amazing additions to Smash.

:ulthero: 85% - To me, Dragon Quest feels like a third-party series that was kind of a given for Smash considering its history and impact, but wasn't exciting for me personally since I have never played a DQ game. I feel the same way about Street Fighter in hindsight. Still, Hero's inclusion makes sense from that perspective and I'm definitely happy for DQ fans, and seeing Akira Toriyama's art style in Smash is the closest we'll ever get to having Goku. I don't really play as Hero a whole lot but he's somewhat fun, albeit janky as hell. Docking 5% for the music selection though. #RipBozo, hopefully this will be rectified next game now that he's gone.

:ultbanjokazooie: 90% - Banjo to me was a character I had a lowkey desire to see for his fan's sake, but didn't care for personally as I haven't played their game. So naturally I was happy that they got in. Their trailer felt like a true homecoming for the character and was really heartwarming. Their playstyle may not be anything special, but I still enjoy them well enough. I don't love Spiral Mountain as a stage, but I love the music, especially the Spiral Mountain remix by Grant Kirkhope.

:ult_terry: 90% - I have seen the names "Terry Bogard" and "SNK" mentioned in Smash speculation exactly once before the leak happened, so this was one character I was almost completely unfamiliar with, but at that point I already stopped caring about who gets in and accepted Terry, even if I wasn't big on traditional fighting games at the time. I only recently picked up Terry himself and he was surprisingly easy to use as his inputs are simpler than the SF shotos, and he's really fun too. The stage he comes with is one of my favorites as well, and the music selection is objectively the best in terms of pure quantity and variety. The Psycho Soldier remix is a jam, and his challenger pack overall feels like a huge love letter to SNK as a whole rather than just Fatal Fury to the point I want to play a KOF game one day.

:ultbyleth: 100% - A very polarizing inclusion, but at the point they were revealed I stopped caring for Smash speculation too much. However, their inclusion made me pick up FE3H which was one of the best decisions I've made this past 2 years as it became possibly my most played Switch game, and one of my favorites of all time. Seriously, it's so damn good you guys. I love playing as Byleth as well since landing their Side B feels incredibly satisfying, and the music selection they came with is great despite the lack of God Shattering Star.

Pass 1 ranking - 100%

:ultminmin 75% - While I think the inclusion of an ARMS character is well deserved, I just don't care for ARMS. I do think if we had to have an ARMS rep, she's the best choice (I never liked Spring Man's design), and I don't have a problem with her playstyle since I don't really play competitively, but this is the one DLC character who wouldn't bother me if they were excluded. The stage is boring as hell and the music is not my thing.

:ultsteve: 90% - I wasn't an active participant of the Banjo-Steve war, but I silently sided with Banjo when it was occuring. Like I said before, I already stopped caring about Smash speculation at this point, so Steve's reveal didn't do much for me. However, I did finally play Minecraft a few months ago and I can understand why it's as popular as it is, even if I haven't fully mastered it yet and haven't played it in a while. Plus, while it took a bit to understand, grasping Steve's playstyle was extremely satisfying and while I'm still not very good at playing as him, I still find him incredibly fun. The stage is cool as well and the music is pretty neat.

:ultsephiroth: 100% - I slept through last year's Game Awards as I wasn't keeping up with social media and was unaware of the fact a Smash reveal was supposed to take place, so I was extremely surprised to wake up and find out that ****ing Sephiroth made it in. His inclusion makes complete sense in hindsight - I haven't played Final Fantasy VII, but I know it's a big deal, which is why I lost my mind when Cloud made it in all those years ago, but I never thought Square Enix would be so cooperative as to let TWO FFVII characters to get into this game. Of course, Sephiroth was the obvious choice for that as he's one of the most iconic video game villains ever made. Trailer was a banger too. Sephiroth is a blast to play - having so many moves with so much power is extremely satisfying. Using him to patch up the lack of FFVII music was a stroke of genius, and the music selection he came with is amazing. Both versions of One-Winged Angel are a jam. Absolutely fantastic inclusion and I can't wait to play Final Fantasy VII one day. (btw, can someone tell me if the OG is worth playing over the remake? The remake looks more up my alley in terms of gameplay but I heard polarizing things about the remake so idk if I should wait until I get a PS5 just to play it). This is all coming from a Geno fan btw

:ultpyra: :ultmythra: 90% - Didn't expect to enjoy this inclusion as much as I did tbh. I always dreaded the possibility of a Rex getting in since I thought some of XC2's character designs in that game were absolutely dumpster fire (Rex included), so I was pleasantly surprised that they picked the booba girls over him, even if objectively speaking their designs are probably not much better. They fit really well with the rest of the cast, and the switching mechanic is a good take on a stance character. They're both incredibly fun to play as as well, with Pyra's incredibly powerful Smash attacks being amazingly fun to land and Mythra having a really nice combo-oriented playstyle. I warmed up to them so much that I plan on playing XC2 if I enjoy the first one (though that's a big if). The music is a jam too, with my favorite being Gormott, and I find the stage to be visually stunning.

:ultkazuya: 89% - Like Dragon Quest, Tekken was a series I expected representation from, but didn't actively want since I never played it. Was somewhat surprised with who they chose since I was more familiar with Heihachi and always assumed he'd be the rep, but I'm not a Tekken fan so I don't care enough to complain. Kazuya's playstyle is something I still haven't fully wrapped my head around, but I still find him rather enjoyable despite that, though he's far from my favorite DLC character. Stage is pretty cool but I haven't given the music enough of a listen to form an opinion.

:ultsora: 100% - At this point I regained my interest in speculation. When it came to Sora, I was a non-believer. It's a licensing nightmare and it took me a week to fully wrap my head around the fact this is the reality that we're in. I have never played a Kingdom Hearts game, but I have an IRL friend who won't shut up about it when they're drunk (which is a lot in my friend group) and loves it to death. When Sora was revealed, they sent me a text saying they were crying. And i know they weren't the only one as Sora trended on Twitter constantly in the context of Smash, even back when I was still using the website, and I believed all these people were setting themselves up for disappointment like I was all those years, and I'm so happy to be wrong. Because of all this, it didn't surprise me at all when Sakurai said Sora was the true ballot winner all those years ago. I was moreso surprised that he actually managed to pull it off.
The soundtrack is amazing and the stage looks cool. He seems really fun to play as as well (although I am getting Sm4sh Bayo flashbacks), but honestly? It doesn't matter. This is a perfect way to wrap up this game. He may have not been the character I wanted personally, but I'm still happy he's here.

Pass 2 ranking - 95%

TL;DR Not a lot of my personal MWs made it in, but a lot of characters that probably wouldn't have made it in if I was in charge and introduced me to games I probably wouldn't have played otherwise. Amazing roster overall, despite my problems with one character in particular.
 
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Sari

Editing Staff
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Day over.

For our penultimate day of this thread, we will be taking a look back at Ultimate's speculation. With Ultimate having been announced in March 2018, it's been more than 3 years of non-stop Smash speculation. Needless to say, there are a lot of things for us to reminiscence about.

So for today, write down and talk about the following:
  • Your favorite and least favorite moments of Ultimate speculation as a whole.
  • Your favorite RTC days.
Day will end on Monday night, afterwards we will enter our final day of the thread. The final day will consist of us listing 5 first parties and 5 third parties you think will be viewed as frontrunners for the next game's speculation period, as well as final goodbyes to the thread until next time.

I'll be posting the FP2 calcs on Monday morning.

If you still want to give Pyra/Mythra, Kazuya, Sora, and Overall FP2 satisfaction scores, you have until tonight!

Megadoomer Megadoomer
 
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BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
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My main fave part is the Steve discussion, lots of support and arguments for why he should appear in Smash, and I’m thankful he made it in.
Least favourite is the overrated characters discussion, as the one I did in 2019 was messy and out of date.
Best RTC days includes Lugia, Steve, Shadow, Shantae, Ray-Man, Dixie Kong, Midna, Bandanna Dee, Grass Type Starter, Echo: Bowser, Gen 8 Pokémon, Adeleine, amoung others, and it was fun.
 

Depressed Gengar

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Honestly, the only part of this game's speculation I genuinely enjoyed was before we knew about "Everyone is here". There was actually stuff to talk about such as who might get cut, what new modes we might see and whatnot. After that E3 though, speculation largely just got really boring before it eventually just got chaotic.

Honorable shoutout of best speculation moment to when K. Rool got in though.

Worst part... eh, it's a tie between Byleth's announcement due to all the whining about anyone who even slightly disliked Byleth, and the Banjo VS Steve wars. It's a miracle for Steve supporters that Steve still got in, or else he would've become the next Waluigi/ Geno/ Crash for sure.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I don't have any favourite days in particular for RTC but as for speculation, my favourite moments are when a character who doesn't get talked about suddenly appear in a random rumour which then leads to the character getting seriously discussed and earning more popularity, be it because of people learning of something they ended up liking or going "**** that *would be cool, why didn't I think of that?" It leads to newfound love or appreciation and ****, that's only a good thing in my book. Worst periods would be "THE BLOOOOOOOOG" back in prerelease where one guy would go absolutely ape**** whenever the blog was late as what if it meant they would randomly show off a newcomer? And what if it was their most wanted? Oh oh it HAS to be the case as there's no reason it'd be late! Only, y'know, Japan got hit by a natural disaster with Nintendo HQ being right in the affecter area. Would this guy learn after being informed of this? Nope, he'd do it every goddamn game and whine when the blog would inevitably not show off an unrevealed character. Post release would be Grinch as jesus ****ing christ the toxicity was through the roof with a hell of a lot of bigotry. Finally, the Cacomallow **** that refused to stay dead even when there was proof it was fake and the Geno Thread shenanigans involving a certain cultlike personality and the leader doxxing himself with some members of the thread going "Yeah stick it to them by doxxing yourself!" All 3 of these have outright shocked me about inhumanity on the internet from dismissing a natural disaster, blatant bigotry and a goddamned cult promoting selfdestructive behaivour leading to one's loved ones getting threatened
 

Sari

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Favorite Speculation Moments

My favorite time would definitely be when the SNK leak happened followed by Terry's reveal. There were a lot of things going for and against it (like the amount of megabytes shown on the page which some thought was just for SNK Heroines) so it was fun to speculate on whether my pipe dream would actually come true.

Other times I liked:
  • June 2018 - August 2018. The official reveal of the game which needs no explanation to all of the August Direct goodness. This was one of the earlier phases of the game so there was a ton to speculate about.
  • The Grinch Leak. Yeah I know it turned out to be fake, but seeing all of the arguments supporting and it dismissing it during those last few weeks of October 2018 were great in an otherwise boring month.

Least Favorite Speculation Moments

The entire period from the ARMS character announcement to Steve was the worst for me. It was such a long and boring period and both Covid as well as the Pro Smash Player Allegations happening in between did not make this time any easier. And then we got Steve who I wasn't exactly a fan of. I was still interested in who the final characters would be (mostly thanks to this thread), but this entire time period greatly lowered my excitement in Ultimate which never really recovered.

Other times that I didn't like:
  • November 2018. This was just waiting for the game to be released and it was pretty slow. It didn't help that the November 1st Direct was disappointing and revealed two of my least favorite characters.
  • Pretty much the first half of 2019. Joker got announced in December so we pretty much got nothing new until June when it came to speculation.
-----

Favorite RTC days:
  • SNK rep day for obvious reasons.
  • Falcom rep day for learning about the history of the company and their potential candidates.
  • Kunio day since it helped me get more interested in his series.
Pretty much any day where I learned about a character/series that I didn't know much about, or where I got to talk a lot about something I liked.
 
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Rie Sonomura

fly octo fly
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Favorite moments in speculation: Everyone is Here reveal, the reveal of Sora being the #1 ballot choice, Joker’s bombshell reveal at TGA 2018, some of the base game leaks as they got real creative, not sure what else

Least fave moments: Cacomallow, the Gardevoir/Gothitelle/Mario2 “leak”, Grinch, the whole Geno thread debacle, people proposing a Hero/Koopaling situation during the ARMS guessing game, anything involving Zippo or Sabi (including the frickin BIRD picture), the time someone insisted Nahobino was a lock and the DLC thread was temporarily locked, not sure what else

Favorite RTC days: Elma, Octoling, Neku, Off the Hook
 
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White Frost

Not that icy
Premium
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Favorite: ARMS Discussion, including alt ideas. It made for tons of unique thoughts and honestly the best, imo, of all time.
-Grinch was neat too, if only for how quickly it was easy to debunk due to a horrid banner change.

Least Favorite: Brave. It was boring and one-sided to the point of drowning out other ideas. Most didn't even entertain the possibility it didn't outright mean Erdrick(which was the case), so seeing it be different from that was a great thing. Though that said, they chose a great first alt overall, imo.

Cacomallow is odd. I'm not sure if I hated it or liked it? It led to finding some cool mod information, but it was stupid it lasted so long. So more neutral.

Favorite RTC: Truthfully, I don't remember any I overall found great?
 
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Golden Icarus

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
1,068
Location
USA
Favorite Speculation Moment: Everyone Is Here!

Easily. I never like talking about cuts. I don’t really get any joy out of seeing people’s favorite characters removed and a lot of “arguments” against characters can be really mean-spirited. Sakurai basically saying that “everyone deserves to be here” was really cool. Having everyone from Smash 4 return, alongside the rest of the Melee and Brawl crew was just so special to me as someone who grew up with every Smash game. It felt like the whole family was back together.

Some people seemed to think that this made speculation boring, but I never felt that way. This meant that every character from E3 onwards was gonna be a newcomer, which was really exciting! I also feel like this was the first indicator that Ultimate was about to be “the golden age of Smash.”

Least Favorite Speculation Moment: Grinch Aftermath

Not necessarily the leak itself, as I actually found the Grinch discussion to be pretty fun. But once it didn’t come true…yeah. Luckily, I didn’t give my hopes up, so it didn’t affect me personally all that much, but you could tell that a lot of fans were really banking on this leak coming true. And I really don’t blame them as the leak had a lot going for it, and we all wanted it to be true. The fact that the leak included insanely popular long-requested characters like Geno and Isaac made things all the more sad.

Favorite RTC Day: Bill Rizer

I remember really enjoying this one. It took us forever to finally rate him, but I remember being pleasantly surprised by how high his want scores were. A lot of people seemed down to get Contra in Smash, including those who had never played it. I didn’t realize how universally respected the series was. The rating was also made more enjoyable for me, as I just so happened to be playing through the Contra Collection at the time.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Favorite Moment: E3 2018 - I already talked about this a few pages back, so I'm not going to elaborate too much. Everyone Is Here + Ridley is some way to set the tone for the rest of the game, if that had been all we got for this game I would have been perfectly happy. I really enjoyed seeing the old guard of Ridley supporters come together in the days leading up to the event too, there's a part of me that wish he didn't leak, but another part of me is happy that we got to have a sort of "last stand" together, and I don't think that'd have happened if not for the leak giving a bit of hope to a fanbase that had long since lost what hope they had left.

Least Favorite Moment: Leaker games - I don't mind discussing leaks that don't necessarily have a lot going for them, hypothetical situations can be fun to give a whirl, but it does irk me when leakers make a game of things just to keep themselves relevant. Vergeben's "Seven Squares" and his whole "This is a list of companies DLC #5 isn't from" was so tiring, even if it was legit information it was an awful way to present it (and he even got the latter wrong initially and had to correct himself). Sabi was particularly guilty of this, and it was pretty bad to see someone who was such a god awful influence on the community be put on a pedestal for dragging things along, especially after it was clear that he no longer knew anything.
 
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Double0Groove

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 6, 2015
Messages
658
It was the best of times...:
Honestly? The Arms rep speculation. Literally the only time where leaks didn't influence the discussion and everyone was more or less on the same page, having the the most cordial conversations I've seen from the community since... Well, I'm drawing a blank as to when, but yeah. It was also the time where I figured that I was better off distancing myself from speculation in general, which is also a plus.


It was the worst of times...:
Where do I begin? I hardly have any fond memories of speculating for this game in general. It's not like it changed much from the Sm4sh days either, but there was a limit to how much I could enjoy watching people abuse tired and bitter arguments that ultimately didn't hold up to any form of scrutiny. It got worse when we started seeing credible leaks take center stage, sapping away the excitement from the reveals themselves. I'm probably just imagining things too, but I never could shake the feeling that the community was trying to police speculation at times. It felt that way for 5 characters specifically, and 4 of them ended up in the roster anyway.


RTC outta nowhere!!!:
I wasn't involved much this time around. I only dropped a comment, like, what, 3 times? Wasn't really feeling it.



Unless you're Goku.
Ha!
 

KillerCage

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 21, 2019
Messages
2,855
FAVORITE MOMENT: E3 2018

I was unable to watch the presentation live yet I was not spoiled so when I saw the "Everyone is here!" trailer, I was floored.
To sweeten the deal, my most wanted character, Ridley, was FINALLY joining the playable roster.
While I was happy that we later got Dark Samus, King K. Rool, Banjo & Kazooie, and Pyra/Mythra, they were just bonus characters in my mind.
I was THAT satisfied with Ridley's inclusion.

LEAST FAVORITE MOMENT: Byleth Reveal

I have mellowed on Byleth, but their reveal almost killed speculation for me.
Byleth was a victim of VERY bad timing: they were added Ultimate which had the whole "Everyone is Here" gimmick meaning they had to bring back all Fire Emblem characters including Roy and the reviled Corrin and they were the final character of Fighters' Pass 1 which to that point had only third-party characters. They were also coming off the back of Terry who arguably had the best Fighter's Pack. Byleth was never going live up to that hype.
Funnily enough if the next Smash Bros got some cuts, I can easily see Byleth surviving.
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Missed the days, so I'll just post my thoughts on each character and pass and move on.

Inklings - 80%
Can't really say too much about these guys as I've never been a Splatoon fan, but I do acknowledge how much of a breakout hit they've been and it honestly was no surprise that they ended up in Smash with the next game following their release. In terms of their moveset they're fun and I do mess around with them a bit so I do enjoy them personally despite having no familiarity otherwise.

Daisy - 50%
Poor girl. I actually don't mind Daisy as she was my sister's favorite character to play as in Mario Party and that was a huge part of my childhood so I have some fond memories with her, but she's never been my favorite Mario character and in this game in particular she definitely got the short end of the stick. As a clone she only has hurtbox differences so she's very identical to Peach, and in terms of the Echoes even with the ones that don't change much I still feel stronger feeling towards them due to their animations or characters that I do not with Daisy. She could've gotten a better deal, but it is what it is.

Ridley - 100%
There's so much I want to say about this one, he's a character I've wanted since I've started speculating, he's a character who had a great trailer IMO, drawing excellently from Metroid and Alien, and his moveset I enjoy playing with even if I do concede some of the flaws others have. I also love that Sakurai went above and beyond in including some underused aspects of the character in his moves and animations such as using his tail as a spear or a balance to show off his intelligence or him licking his lips as if he's gleefully looking forward to the next character he'll kill. He's such a wonderful character to me, and I can't thank Sakurai enough for giving his all and making him a reality.

Simon - 90%
Castlevania was a big franchise for me and after getting into it in College I wanted a character in Smash ever since. Simon seemed to be the best bet so I threw my lot in with him (though I preferred another Belmont, can you guess who?) and after a lot of drama with Konami I was really glad to see him finally make an appearance here. In terms of the moveset and stage, Castlevania really got a red carpet treatment IMO, a great stage with some nice callbacks with the bosses, an excellent music list, and a moveset that draws so heavily from Castlevania that they feel that they were realized into Smash straight out of them. Again, another character that feels like they had a lot of love put into them, but there's one other I give a bigger nod to...

Richter - 95%
And that is Richter. As I said before, I preferred another Belmont over Simon, and Richter was that Belmont for me. Rondo of Blood and Symphony of the Night were my first Castlevania games and I adored playing through them with him, Alucard and Maria, so when it came to actual preference for a Castlevania rep I leaned more on Richter (or Alucard) then I did Simon, but I did not expect him because Simon was the most iconic and I figured like most he'd just get an alt or cameo. Come the trailer and to my surprise, he made it in, many didn't see him coming, but somehow it happened and I was so excited to see him. My favorite Belmont was in the game alongside Simon, and I'd be able to play as him alongside my favorites like Ridley and Samus. It was just... a treat. I do have to knock him a bit since his moveset is very similar to Simon's and could've used a couple tweaks to stand out, but it's not enough to remove the love I have for this character. It was like getting a surprise along with your favorite gift.

Chrom - 80%
I like Chrom, he's a good guy and likeable in Awakening, but what puts him here for me is was he meant to a very good friend. Like with me and Ridley, Chrom was someone they held dear and wanted in the game and was sad to see miss the boat with the last one. Seeing him get his character in the game was something special, and it helps that he's fun to play whenever I just want to smack people with a sword.

Dark Samus - 85%
Another character I wanted to see, but didn't expect. While I do wish she had more to her, I can't be mad at all at how they went about her as for what she lacks in moveset differences she makes up for in her animations. She has some of the best animations out of any of the clones and the way she moves feels like it was taken out of Prime and then some. She moves like a possessed armor and that's so fitting for her, and it helps that the updates to her design make her stand out even more. If she had more moveset differences she'd be perfect, but as is I still enjoy her.

K. Rool - 100%
If Ridley was my #1, K. Rool was my #2. I grew up playing DK64 (yeah I know it aged like milk, still have great memories of it) and K. Rool was a huge part of that love. I enjoyed how the character could be both intimidating and silly and his boss fight was one of the more memorable moments of the game for me, so I always wanted him in the game, especially after Diddy (who was my second favorite kong) made his debut in Brawl. It took a few years and many votes, but after a long lull for the character he makes such a triumphant return in Smash and it couldn't have been better for him. The way he plays is so fun and while he's not good competitively I still find myself picking him (alongside Ridley) for online matches where I just want to smack someone down to the pits or bury them into the ground. A great character who was given life again in such a great way, again Sakurai did a great job with this character.

Isabelle - 65%
I want to be nicer to her, she's a breakout character of a very popular series that very much had a place to get in Smash, but I can't help but feel she's undercooked relative to her peers. I don't mind that she's a clone at all as using Villager as a base makes some sense, I just feel that the moves they gave her don't flow as well as they could've.

Ken - 70%
It's good that he stands out more from Ryu then the other Echoes with their bases, but I don't play well with Ryu so I'm pretty ambivalent on him.

Incineroar - 80%
I'll be honest, when the leaks for SM first came out I was not a fan of Incineroar. I didn't like the design that much and I was more attached to Litten's design and I didn't really like the direction it took it. Looking back on my opinion of him back then to now and the contrast couldn't be any more stark. I was already warming up to him after a playthrough with Litten in SM, but Sakurai brought the character to life for me. The heel personality that was present in SM was given full focus here and it made the character very loveable as he had a charm and appeal that stood out very well among the cast of characters, and his moveset also was fun for being more of a traditional grappler (which I usually gravitate to in Fighting games looking back at my choice of characters like King). He was a character I wasn't 100% sure of going into Ultimate and I did have my own preferences, but leaving this game I feel Sakurai did make a good call.

Piranha Plant - 70%
I do like the concept they were going for, the way they drew from the many different Piranha Plants across the series, and as a character I have played it and used it online. However I will admit it hasn't stuck with me in the same way ROB and Duck Hunt in terms of the surprise characters.

Joker - 75%
Joker is a character I have little familiarity with, I don't have access to Persona 5 and even with the spinoffs on Nintendo systems I haven't bit the bullet and got either game yet. So Smash (and DL, great Shadow Adventurer there) is my only exposure to the character, but thankfully they do a great job of showcasing him and the franchise in Smash. You can tell Sakurai had a lot of love for this character as the treatment of the franchise is full of attention to detail from the animations, the stage, the trailer, and even the Final Smash with all of the NPCs chiming in. So he manages to stand out even though I don't have the biggest attachment to him.

Hero - 90%
After playing DQ11 I've really jumped onto this character and franchise. It's one full of charm and I do enjoy how they brought it into Smash, especially in terms of the alts as being able to choose from four different protagonists from across the franchise is very meaningful. The character is also very fun to play, but I have to dock them for the lack of icons for the menu as that's a barrier for people playing in different languages.

Banjo - 90%
While I'm not as attached to the character like most, I still have to give a lot of love to how much his inclusion meant to so many. Even back in Melee it did feel odd to not have these two in the game with how popular they were in the 64 days and as the years gone on their place in Nintendo history hasn't faded. Seeing them make a return was very special and they make it even special with how they're included into the game. I don't gel with them as much from a gameplay standpoint so that hurts them, but it's still good to see them in Smash.

Terry - 90%
Terry is interesting as I don't like playing as any of the other Fighting game characters, but he's the one that I completely jumped on board with after trying him out a few times. It may just be me, but I prefer his inputs to the others and even without them I find him more fun to just mess around with. It also helps that, like Joker, you can tell there was a lot of love put into this character's inclusion and for me it definitely captured him enough to put him above even characters I had more familiarity with.

Byleth - 65%
Byleth's weird to me, I don't mind their inclusion much, I loved TH and while I would've preferred another character I was willing to accept Byleth as a more neutral choice to the other lords. However, I don't really like their moveset as much as it feels like they were trying to compromise with the 'swordfighter' complaint, but ended up making a character that feels cumbersome to me. I kind of wish they refined this idea as a weaponsmaster can work, but I just don't think it panned out with them.

Overall - 85%

Min Min - 70%
I do find the use of the ARMs very unique and I'm glad the series got a character after missing the boat with the base game. However her playstyle isn't for me as I like being more upfront and close and she prefers keeping people at a distance. Admittedly she's also a bit of a pain to fight, but a part of that is the characters I typically play.

Steve - 70%
I feel bad because due to timing I had no time to really mess around with Steve. Hell I don't think I've even used the stage yet, so I honestly haven't even had a chance to get to know the character. Once I get a better controller I'll probably give this guy another shot as this is a character with a lot of work put into them, they just landed at the wrong time for me to really invest in trying them.

That said, I like the alts, like with Hero it was cool to see different characters provided with them.

Sephiroth - 100%
A huge surprise of a character that allowed for Final Fantasy 7 to get an expansion of content in a very meaningful way. He's also a character that, while I was not supporting him like I did characters like Ridley or K. Rool, was still a cool character that was great to see make it into the game due to enjoying him in FF7 and what he meant for the series (and gaming culture) as a whole. I also like his moveset, it feels very Sephiroth in how it's done and while he has clear flaws he feels powerful to use.

Pyra/Mythra - 70%
Like with many I'm not that fond of their designs, but they are fun to play so it ended up evening out to the point that they're still enjoyable to me. It also helps that I like the stage if for nothing else the charm Gramps gives it.

Kazuya - 75%
A bit of a mixed bag for me, I actually have the most attachment to Tekken out of the Fighting games, but I have a hard time getting into Kazuya in Smash. I'll probably revisit the character at another time since I feel the big thing holding him back is me not getting the inputs, but for now he's a character I appreciate, but don't get as much enjoyment out of.

Sora - 95%
I can't rate the gameplay of course, so this is exclusively coming down to the character and on that front I feel a high score is definitely warranted. There's such a spectacle to having this character in Smash, one that felt nearly impossible due to all of the hoops you had to go through to make it happen, but one that people did want to see achieved due to being a beloved character. So when the last trailer started playing and we see that Keyhole in the sky and he flies through, they made so many dreams come true. Sora being the last character to join Ultimate is such a great sendoff to the game as it fits the theme of going above and beyond for the fans and making a game where many favorites come to play. There may be no other game like Ultimate, but Ultimate will always be a special game and Sora is one representation of why that is.

Overall - 80%

Now as for today:

Favorite Moment: E3 2018
May be a bit of a bias choice, but I feel that this was the best way to start the game off. You had Everyone is Here, a major moment as many people wanted all of these characters back/to remain, and the way they showed it off in the trailer was done in a meaningful way. I don't think I'll ever forget the moment Snake appeared and those three words flashed on the screen, it was amazing and probably will be an iconic moment for the franchise going forward. However it doesn't stop there, as the newcomer they end off their entire presentation was Ridley, a character I and many others wanted to see happen and having it achieved was a very special moment for me. Ridley's newcomer trailer will always be a personal highlight for me, and he set the bar for what came after with how many fan favorites, notable, and enjoyable characters that followed him.

Honorable Mention: August Direct for showing off more of the game, and Joker's announcement for being a huge surprise that brought about a new wave of speculation.

Least Favorite: Grinch discord
The leak itself I will give credit, it was very well done as you couldn't easily break it down and write it off and it got discussion to start back up in a big way after the Box leak made discussion very dull. However, it quickly devolved as you had a large number of posters come in and turn discussion into a toxic environment where any dissent to the leak was meant with bile and **** slinging. Additionally, people outside of the community were getting harassed such as new sites like Gamexplain and people like Imran (who were trying to warn fans). It was an awful time to be a fan as seeing friends get attacked was disgusting, and it was one of the few times I completely checked out of speculation as I didn't want to deal with it.

Least Honorable Mention: Cacomallow, while I do understand wanting the characters that it hinted at, there was no good reason to keep moving the goalposts as much as people did for it. We've debunked rumors for less, and having it cycle back into discussion constantly and having it devolve it into negativity made it worse.

RTC: N/A
 
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2006ToyotaTacoma

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 23, 2021
Messages
270
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Aboard the Ark of Yamato
Speculation Best Moments: Honestly? Post-E3 2021 and Kazuya. It felt like the impossible had just been achieved, and for once discussion actually shifted away from the front runners for the most part. It really felt like the most dynamic and unique era of Smash speculation in my personal opinion. Runner up would definitely be E3 2018, with the whole Everyone is Here and Ridley's reveal setting the scene for what this game was to become.

Speculation Epic Fails (Not clickbait):
Probably has to go to the ARMS speculation period. It was gonna be from a game that I personally did not care about and coupled with the competitive scene hemorrhaging, my interest in Smash Ultimate dipped to an all time low. Definite runner up would be some of the Geno shenanigans, especially Morbidly Obese Man in a Hazardous Environment's cult-like following and Cacomallow. Never in my entire life have I seen greater acts of delusion and goalpost shifting.
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,045
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ZE BATH
Well it's time to look back at my favorite Smash Ultimate speculation moments. While Ultimate is my favorite game in the series, i feel Smash 4's speculation era was far more entertaining. The Pic of the Day speculation was ****ing wild (remember when we were teased the Mario Galaxy stage which was revealed MONTHS later? good times) and every single time we speculated about a reveal about a veteran it felt special. Smash 4's pre-release speculation was one of my favorite memories as a teenager, and i still look fondly tot his day.

Smash Ultimate does have some notably stand outs.


1-Everything regarding Simon: I mentioned before that once Simon was started being rumored, i had hope once again. I enjoyed when people stopped talking about the same Decidueye and Port topics we used to talk about for weeks on end, and started entertaining the idea of him as a playable character. I already showed my OP which shows how passionate i was for Simon during the lead up to E3, and while it was disappointing that he wasn't revealed there since i expected him to be revealed as soon as possible, the lead up to his reveal had me on the edge of my seat, especially after the Galaga incident.

2-Everyone is Here: This is a weird one. For one hand it basically killed a good chunk of speculation, as Smash 4 made its pre-release era more interesting by sprinkling veteran reveals in an almost monthly manner, while in this game it meant that unless we were getting a newcomer reveal, we were gonna be on the dark for weeks. I know some people were sad that we can't group together and chant "CUT THIS CHARACTER BECAUSE I DON'T WANT HIM 11111!!!", but as someone whose most played characters are always on the Chopping Block, it was good to know i could play as Roy, Lucas, Mewtwo (why is he so low priority?, if i were Sakurai he would be second to ****ING Pikachu) and others, so this was good news. Also it meant i didn't have to worry if my main was gonna be revealed to be cut at the VERY last second like what happened to the Icies in 4. "Who's getting cut" Disscussions suck ass, and the fact that i didn't have to deal with them, made it less interesting for game discussion sure, but far more of a relief to know i can still play as my favorite veterans in case the Newcomers suck (and as shown with my thoughts on certain newcomers as DLC, im only happier this was done) it also meant i i didn't have to worry about Wolf missing out on DLC again, nice.

3-Grinch Leak week: This is a controversial take. As i alluded to early, most Ultimate speculation came in short but BIG bursts. E3 2018: EVERYONE IS HERE; DAISY, RIDLEY.............................a few months later in August: KING K.ROOL, CASTLEVANIA; MORE ECHOES, SQUAD STRIKE!, ITEMS GALORE!....................a month later............Isabelle..................and then a few months later......the November 1 Direct. Contrary to Pic of the Day or Brawl's Dojo, Ultimate's Super Smash Blog was a sad shallow shadow of the former two, almost never revealing anything of interest and telling us stuff we already know about.

So to see this leak from October 24th to November 1st, it was fun to fantasize, i didn't believe it was real, believe me i wanted to think that, but they weren't gonna reveal 6 Newcomers in ONE trailer, they haven't done that since Brawl. But **** it, it was fun to dream, it was fun to see people talk about it, i didn't care about the petty stuff that happened, most of Smash Ult's speculation was actually pretty boring, so seeing just a little chaos can be fun sometimes. I just remember not to take it too seriously. I still have memories of an hypothetical Mach Rider/Shadow dual reveal.


4-The Shinobi Banjo leak: While most leaks were awful if they were real (Box Theory) or fake if they were cool (Grinch Hoax), here we have the one leak that ended up being COOL and Real. The Banjo leak, when it comes to DLC speculation, was the highlight for me. Banjo was probably the only DLC character i was truly rooting for at the time, and seeing anything in his favor made me excited. To see a leak that looks promising yet didn't spoil too much was always good for me to see, and it gave the last week before E3 this epic feeling before the reveal. It's kinda like the recent Sora leak, it's plausible enough to sound legit, yet it doesn't spoil everything like the ESRB leak so when it happened it still felt amazing to me.

Yeah that's it. Smash 4 was a game where i sometimes feel the speculation was more fun than the game itself (well, the Wii U version at least, Smash 3DS is my second favorite Smash game and on my top 5 3DS games) while Ultimate was the opposite, i enjoy Ultimate as a game, not as a talking topic.

Now for the bad stuff. I can't think of much here, most stuff that bothered me was temporary, but 2 things ruined Smash Ultimate speculation for me. First the Small one that only applied to the Base Game.

1-The Lulls. As i mentioned before, due to Smash Ultimate revealing stuff only in Directs, it meant that every time one was over...........that was it. After E3 2018 we were basically in the dark, what will happen to the ATs? Is Chrom now an echo? How much different CAN and Echo Be? At first keeping us in the dark was nice, but after the August Direct, which raised people's expectations WAY TOO HIGH (myself included) this was more annoying than anything. Outisde of Isabelle's reveal, we had NOTHING to go out of. No Teases, no Assist Trophy reveals on the week, no item reveals. See this is why i loved Pic of the Day so much, every day i would feel like "what is Sakurai gonna talk about today? Dedede's Belly, or a returning stage?". Here though? I hope you enjoy takling about Vergeben for the 15th time this week.


But this one.............................where do i begin?

2-DLC speculation: I said it before and say it again. I play Smash for Nintendo, and guests are nice but i play Smash for Nintendo's cast and crew first and foremost. Outside of Smash Ultimate bringing literally all the previous guests back due to Everyone is Here (so there was a LOT of 3rd Party stuff already, but Veterans are Veterans), Smash Ultimate did a decent job when it came to third parties, we only got 3, The Belmonts and Ken, and 2 of those were echoes so there were more bonus than anything. The First Parties were the majority of the newcomers, maybe we can get some more for DLC since Nintendo is apparently calling the shots?


.....nope, we get Joker as our first reveal for the Fighter's Pass. A character whose main important game isn't even on the Switch and hasn't been despite being almost 3 years since his reveal. Worse is due to the Smash Fanbase's bandwagon mindset, EVERYONE started talking about 3rd Party characters. If the first FP1 character was Hero or Sora i don't think it would have been as bad, but because Joker is as NON-Nintendo as it gets, people started talking about characters like 2B, whose franchise literally has NEVER been on Nintendo before, or characters that barely overlap with Smash's or even Nintendo's fanbases and consumer base, like Saber from Fate. Already a bad start after Piranha Plant left a bad taste on my mouth on Nov 1st (even if the Grinch Leak was real i probably would still put PP at 0%)

So this meant that people would almost NEVER talk about Nintendo characters like Bandanna Waddle Dee, but instead talk about guest characters this, third party that, and as someone who was already a little too full with all the third party stuff already in Ultimate, this wasn't too great. At least some characters that i liked came into the discussion such as Terry (an example that sometimes a character i don't care about can leave a good impression on me) and Banjo and Hero, but most of the time, it was about characters that i don't find good fits for Smash or were just uninteresting. The only Nintendo characters that people commonlgy talked about were an ARMS Rep and a Xenoblade character, and that was only AFTER the March 2020 direct, because people thought that if you were Spirit, you wouldn't be in Smash. Outside of the ARMS speculation, almost no Nintendo character was talked about on a daily basis, which only got worse and worse each time another third party was revealed. It's hard to care about talking about potential Ultimate DLC characters when everyone that you could care about is seen as "non-viable" by the vast majority, and also "Smash is about gaming history that" and "Smash is no longer about Nintendo, the remaining Nintendo characters left are boring and D-Listers, now let's talk about Indies and characters whose games have barely any International presence".

Yeah, while Base Game talk was absolute hype for me despite the Lulls, Smash Ultimate DLC was some of the most uninteresting stuff to talk about. I originally was going to leave permanently after 2019, but due to the "UNSPECIFIED VIRUS OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN" i decided to come back on last time to see if FP2 would fix most of my complaints..............................well at least i got Pyra and Mythra out of that i guess.

Admittedly Smash 4 DLC was similar to this, but to a lesser extent, you still saw Nintendo characters being a common topic, if only because K.Rool wasn't in yet, and people wanted Wolf back. Smash Ultimate? OOPS! All Third Parties! and outside of Crash, almost none of the commonly talked about choices interested me.


As for my favorite RTC day? Well i don't have fond memories of rating characters (i was super critical of Reimu, Saber, Sakura, and others so i know i am in someone's death list due to this) but i would have to say that my favorite was recently. Those days were the Last Rerates: Rerating the Base Game made me remember why i was so hyped for this game in 2018 and how much time i spend on it. And looking back on DLC, while the speculation mostly sucked brown Banana Parts, the reveals and characters we got were mostly good in my eyes. Outside of the low LOWs of Seph, Joker and Kaz, i loved Terry, Aegis, Hero and Banjo, and didn't hate Byleth.

When it comes to rating characters themselves. It was fun to just talk about Waluigi and Isaac once again. Any chance i get to talk something about i love is great, plus Sophia the 3rd's day made me realize that even if i don't like Smash's current direction, there may be some character i may still like, although i still stand by my idea of leaving Smash Speculation for good after this, it's just too much of a pain in the brain to keep doing when i am becoming an adult and probably can better spend my time somewhere else.

RTC favorite days: Waluigi, Bomberman, Isaac, Dixie Kong, Bandanna Dee ratings days. They weren't likely, but i loved to talk about what i love. Also the recent Base Game and Fighter Pass 1 and 2 re-rates, because i wanted to get some words out of my system.


EDIT: I wanna add one last thing for the positive Speculation of Ultimate. For as much as i disliked the DLC speculation aside from Banjo, there was one other moment i legitimately had fun.

5-The final days before Sora's reveal. Remember that we didn't knew WHO it was going to be, for as pessimistic i was............i can't lie, i also got a little excited during those last days. Even if it was a dissapointing reveal (and it wasn't) this was the last reveal of Ultimate, and i could feel it in the air, i got to participate in these boards again, it felt anti-nihilistic in a way. Nothing matters now, it's the last reveal, so get hyped one last time, because even if you get dissapointed, this will be the last time you will ever come to participate in something like this for YEARS. Similar to the Banjo leak, the Sora leak gave it just that extra spice it needed. I'm happy Ultimate ended the way it did, it makes up for Smash 4's underwhelming finale.

For one, i got excited, and instead of beign underwhelming, i came up with a positive reaction, which hasn't been a thing for me since E3 2019. Nice.
 
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Noipoi

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Through good times:

Man where do I begin? The period through E3 2018 to October 2018 was incredibly hype. We were getting nothing but big reveals and fan favorites, and speculation was wild. Looking at **** like chairs was hilarious. Of course that all changed when the grinch season hit, and everything got really toxic. And the November smash reveals, as much as I love Incineroar, weren’t exactly the most hype. Not to mention all the disconfirmations of fan favorite characters. Joker brought the hype back though.

Then there was the lead up to E3 2019, with big leaks focusing on Hero from DQ or Banjo & Kazooie from…Banjo Kazooie. Arguing back and forth over who it’ll be, only to get both? That was awesome.

And that short period of time when Nintendo themselves leaked SNK and we had to scramble to figure out who it would be? Tons of fun. Not to mention it culminated on a Sans Undertale mii costume a few days later. Hardest I laughed that year, I promise you.

The one two punch of Steve and Sephiroth back to back was badass. I was positive FP2 wouldn’t top that, but then…

The lead up to the final smash presentation was relatively mellow for me. I accepted that smash was ending, and I had accepted it probably wouldn’t be someone big. But during the last few days before the presentation, a lot of things to a certain rumor to strange coincidences to Sakurai’s own words started hyping me up to levels that probably weren’t safe. And of course, then we got Sora. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it a millions times more, he was the perfect way to end the ultimate smash game.

And bad times:

The worst period for me was post Byleth pre Min Min. A six month wait for news on a character I wasn’t too interested in. ARMS is cool and all, and the guessing game was decently interesting, but it wasn’t enough to sustain me Y’know what I mean? And the stench of Byleth’s lameness still hung in the air. I actually left speculation entirely during this period, coming back a little after the time Min Min dropped. It was just boring to me.

And in general, speculation after 2019 got way more boring. After Terry leaked Nintendo clearly cracked down hard on leakers. And we didn’t get any real juicy stuff until Sora’s leak. No real rumors, all the theories were dumb, it just wasn’t as fun as before. Of course as we got new characters, all of which vast improvements from the last member of FP1, I started to have some more fun. But it never captured the glory days of 2018 to 2019 speculating.

It’s true love we share:

The RTC isn’t a thread I used a lot, but it’s a pretty good idea. It served it’s purpose.
 
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fogbadge

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well im confused, some are doing the actual speculation and others are doing reveals. well its says speculation so we'll go with that

Favourite moment: Arms character speculation. with the dread of a truly awful character lifted for a little while. plus everyone kept coming up with so many wacky character ideas for an arms follow up it was great. and if we're counting reveals banjo kazooie and sora. the impossible revival and the new king of 3rd parties.

Least favourite: where do i start? the endless waluigi memes. people getting insulted any time i dared suggest sakurai was bias. that time i got barned a troll for suggesting nintendo power was only important to america. and the sheer patronizing attitude certain users took when i questioned sakurais logic. oh and that user who called us all paedophiles for playing XC2.

best rtc day: toad and chibi-robo. i just like talking about them
 
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DrifloonEmpire

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Aug 2, 2019
Messages
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Speculation Best Moments

The Grinch Leak -
Everything about this period of speculation was honestly super fun! The back and forth evidence, the intense analytics, and just how big of a saga it was! We wouldn't have another event like that for the rest of speculation. I was doubtful of it but it was super fun to see the daily developments that would circulate, and it felt like an ongoing event of sorts! A historical and fantastic event! And in hindsight I'm glad a few Grinch Leak characters really did make the cut in the end!

The SNK Leak - While I don't really plan to play their games myself, it was super fun to learn more about a developer that I knew next to nothing about. There were a lot of colorful characters to choose from and overall things were very chill during that part of speculation! A very feel-good moment!

Prerelease Period - Overall a fantastic time for speculation! Fan favorites were getting in left and right, there were no controversial picks (for the most part), and everyone in general was having a great time! Especially once K. Rool and the Belmonts came along, we were in for a fun ride! We could also speculate on other forms of game content, which definitely broke up any character tensions, too.


Speculation Worst Moments


Post-Joker - Honestly, as surprising as Joker's inclusion was, his reveal incited a lot of obnoxious behavior. It became popular to speculate characters who had little to nothing to do with Nintendo, and "Big Games of the Now" like Nier Automata suddenly became speculation darlings. And people would often try to justify these characters as "superior choices" over many, quite honestly, more deserving characters. "Anyone can Join!" speculation really took its' toll quickly. Not helping matters was the Brave leak, and while Dragon Quest was a great choice, waiting 6 months for a character we knew was going to happen wasn't pleasant.

FP5 Speculation/Rotundman's Feast/The Game Awards Come and Go - Basically the entire period between after Terry's Sakurai Presents until March 2020 was a hot mess. Leaker wars, huge lists of supposedly deconfirmed characters, the whole KOS-MOS insanity, the rise of a particular cult of personality, and how things crashed after The Game Awards failed to produce a character. It was all downright stressful. And having it all end with the whole Byleth/Smug weeb fiasco didn't help matters at all. Overall an extremely stressful speculation period.

ARMS Speculation - What has to be one of the slowest moments in speculation history. The pandemic hit, which means we never knew when there'd be news, and the guessing game basically narrowed discussion down to four characters. And when big discussions can basically all be summed up as "Min Min Win Win" it got boring really fast. 6 months for a character I wasn't really interested in to begin with, coming off of the heels of Ultimate's wort reveal. A recipe for a slog!

FP7 Speculation/Legend of the Seven Miis - Summer of last year was an extremely slow time for speculation, so I was basically starved for news. After all of the FP5 Dragonborn discussion occured in the Geno thread but nowhere else I started following that thread and experienced a lot of insanity. Cacomallow debates didn't help matters, and neither did missing our September Direct either. And with no leaks or other news at this point, things slowed to a crawl again.


Rate Their Chances Moments - Considering how many characters we've rated, it's hard to pick out the most notable days! But there are a few I'll happily mention! The first, ironically enough, was the Non-white/Asian character day. As much as I really dislike politics bleeding into unrelated threads, things didn't go that far and overall things were extremely civil and stayed focused on the characters! Plus it has to date my longest write-up for RTC ever! Another good day would be the Atari Rep day, due to GoodGrief's fantastic write-up! While I was not convinced that we'd ever get an Atari character, it was awesome to read the write-up and learn some comprehensive history about this often glossed-over part of gaming history! There's also the Post-E3 Steve Rerate day on that particular fixed schedule. It was super cool to see people warming up to a unique character who had previously been derided due to being Banjo-Kazooie's competition! Honestly, overall it's hard to decide because most days of RTC were good and it means a lot to me to get to share this experience with you guys!

Now for the bad, a mix of days that were actually bad and days that were personally bad for me. First, I'll have to say Adol Christian's day. I do appreciate the compelling arguments his fanbase presented in a very calm and competent manner, they did a good job! Still, call it jealousy or whatnot, it kind of hurt, since for me it hit two big frustrations I had with Ultimate speculation. Aside from the first being the ongoing issue of JRPGs getting special privileges every time, the second was that most of the characters I wanted in speculation had next to no support. I would make compelling arguments for these characters in RTC in the exact same way the Adol fans did and for the most part it would fall on deaf ears or that nobody would really care (and for my friends in RTC who did show support for some of those characters, I REALLY can't thank you enough!). Meanwhile for Adol, one good day of RTC and suddenly he's on everyone's want and prediction lists, which felt frustrating, especially as I was one of the few who wasn't really convinced that he'd be a good pick, especially in an already JRPG-saturated DLC season. The second Falcom day was better though. Second, is Quote/Reimu fixed schedule day several months back. For similar reasons to Adol, I've always been frustrated that people wrote off Quote while Reimu overnight became a speculation darling. And on that rating day there were TONS of posts denouncing or writing off Quote while Reimu mostly received glowing praise. Downright frustrating. Then there was one of the previous KOS-MOS days, given how her supporters flooded the thread and all of the toxic behavior that ensued. There was also a particular Saber day that dragged on longer than it needed to through drawn-out arguments. Finally there was one of our previous Lara Croft days. I remember doing a good write-up that day for her but there was an incident in the thread that ended up souring it. Lara deserved better than that! Thankfully she received an incident-free day later on!
 
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DanganZilla5

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Favorite moments of speculation
  • Post E3 2018/August Direct - This was when I really started to get into Smash speculation. I was shocked to see that everyone returned, and not only that but Ridley got in too! This was exciting because all of the future characters would automatically be brand new, which fueled the hype. After the August Direct where we got the Belmonts and K. Rool, it felt like anyone was possible. Those were the days where Isaac and Shadow felt like a real possibility. I do wish they would have just revealed their assist trophies right away but on the flip side it allowed our imaginations to run wild and believe in them.
  • Late 2020 - After a long drought, we finally got the October reveal announcement. Finally! For this spot, it felt like anyone could have been it. And then one of my most wanted characters was revealed! I was blown away by Steve's trailer and I was psyched to finally have someone I truly wanted. Then we got another pleasant surprise 2 months later at the Game Awards when Sakurai said to expect a reveal. A lot of names floated around, and even Geoff Keighley joined in on the fun by teasing us with Crash. What we got wasn't the bandicoot, but still someone awesome, the One Winged Angel. When I heard his theme I was like "No ******** way!!". That is hands down one of the best reveals ever. Having these two back to back was a real treat.
Least favorite moments of speculation
  • Between Joker's reveal and E3 - This period was kind of boring, not just because of the six month wait time between Joker and E3's reveals, but also because of the Brave leak which meant Dragon Quest was brought up all the time and during that time period I had no experience with Dragon Quest so those discussions were meh and I was hoping the Brave codename actually signed someone else. This period did have its ray of sunshine though when we got real close to E3 and suddenly a lot of evidence piled up for Banjo. So I actually got real hyped days before E3 and my hype was answered indeed!
  • The lead up to CP5 - Oh boy there were just a lot of factors that contributed to this **** storm. First, people started to really get antsy which became apparent when there was a lot of anger at there being no Game Awards announcement. This was also when leakers started to lose their trust among people. Vergeben had listed a bunch of companies that he was confident that CP5 wasn't owned by which ticked off people, and there was another leaker who I won't name who had a decent track record at the time, who said that they knew who CP5 was, but wouldn't say who, or even give a hint. I really noticed an uptick in resentment towards the leakers.
But another factor to this were people hyping this reveal up to astronomical proportions. Thanks to fake leaks and circumstantial evidence, many were stanning for Dante. Also, in the tweet that had Sakurai doing the binary hand gesture, people noticed fire that was cropped out and their minds went to Doomguy. I was one of those people. I got myself way too hyped, and not only did I not get what I wanted, I was given the worse case scenario. Another character from an over-repped series that I don't care about. I was mad and the reveal turned me off from Smash for a bit. God this time period was just ******.
  • Time period between ARMS reveal and Steve's - Oh brother, 6 months wait between two challenger packs, and half of that time was spent on speculating what was realistically going to come down to a hand full of characters. And having just one character wasn't a lot to go off of. Not fun.

_________________________________________________

Favorite RTC days
  • SNK day - Despite being a sleeper choice, this did get decent scores and of course Sari's writeup was great and it did get answered. Congrats Sari!
  • Adol Christin - Specifically his first rating. Many people went in here in droves to argue in favor of his and Falcom's merits and it worked. Falcom became a significant part of speculation on here and the passionate writeups made me and others try out their games.
  • Atari rep - This mostly comes from GoodGrief's giant summary of Atari's I.Ps. Plus I'm a sucker for the arcade classics so I'm glad this day happened.
  • Bill Rizer - This was a model day. I got to share my essay and the majority of people were optimistic. Even the non-Contra fans were accepting of him and overall Bill Rizer got a decent score in the end and became one of the most wanted characters overall. Awesome day.
Those are the ones that come to my mind. But really there were a lot of days where the passionate fans of a character came in, gave good arguments, and left an impression on me and others. And that's really the strength of this thread. Sure, strong arguments for certain characters are not always heard (cough cough Dragonborn cough cough) but I feel like thanks to this thread we were able to elevate multiple characters to a better degree of respect. Examples include Arle, Phantasy Star, Reimu, and the Falcom gang.
 
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DaUsername

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:ultpyra:/:ultmythra:: 40%
"The Switch isn't powerful enough to get the blade/driver gimmick I wanted to work but gosh darn it I'm gonna shove a Xenoblade 2 rep into the game anyway!"
Honestly, I think they should have waited. I was never the biggest Rex supporter or anything, but I'm sure whatever moveset they had planned for him would have been more interesting than what we ended up with.
At least they have a cool stage.
:ultkazuya:: 60%
His stage is pretty generic and his moveset is way too complicated. Honestly most of this score is coming from the music selection, which makes most of the other DLC music lists look like crap by comparison. I definitely won't be playing as kazuya very often but it's not like I hate his existence or anything.
:ultsora:: 75%
(I wish I could actually play as him before raring this lol.)
Despite me never playing KH, Sora never being high on my want list, and the fact that he's the 7th JRPG swordfighter we've gotten as DLC, I'm actually satisfied with his inclusion. He looks very fun to play as, and the stage looks cool. I can see why so many people wanted him. I'm a bit let down by the music, though. Mainly with the fact that Simple And Clean isn't actually in the game and the fact that you have to buy some other game to get one of the songs in Smash.

FP2: 50%
Honestly, FP2 wasn't that great for me, I got 0 characters from my most wanted list. The picks we did end up getting were still okay, though, for the most part. It could have been a lot worse.
 

Sari

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Fighters Pass 2 Calcs

1634488347387.png

I said I was going to post this on Monday morning, but my schedule is looking to be packed tomorrow so I did the calcs in advance. DaUsername DM'd me his scores earlier so I was able to get this done a few hours ago (we were lenient with the times plus his scores didn't change any of the positions here anyway). With that said, let's look at the final score calcs for FP2, followed by a look back on how every Ultimate newcomer ranked against each other.


:ultminmin Min Min
Satisfaction:
56.79%

Previous satisfaction score was 82.29% in June 2020. Min Min suffered a more than 25% drop since then and had the second biggest drop overall after Joker. Funnily enough, both characters were at the very start of their respective passes.

One of the most common complaints about Min Min - and probably the main reason for her big drop - is that she is just too darn annoying to fight against. Hating a character due to their annoying playstyle isn’t uncommon (see Smash 4 Bayo) and while Min Min may not be as bad as that example, that doesn’t mean people will dread seeing her show up as an opponent.

Another reason for people not being too happy for Min Min is that some were hoping another ARMS character would get picked instead. The most common name brought up was Spring Man as he’s often viewed as the face of the game. Similarly, some were miffed that Spring Man didn’t get picked since he would’ve brought an end to the “Assist Trophies can’t be promoted within the same game” fanrule. None of the other FP2 characters did any wonders for the AT characters, so some may have viewed Min Min as blowing the only opportunity for this dreaded fanrule to be rid of for good.

At 56.79%, Min Min is the least liked FP2 character in this thread. She does however have a higher score than two of the FP1 characters (Byleth and Joker), plus three past DLC characters in general if you count Piranha Plant. Not too bad for the first character of the pass.


:ultsteve: Steve
Satisfaction: 74.36%

Previous satisfaction score was 69.35%. Keep in mind that the first satisfaction score was right after Steve’s reveal trailer and NOT after the Sakurai showcase. You can blame me for jumping the gun since everyone was going crazy that day and I wanted people to unload their thoughts.

Not much to say here. I don’t think the slightly over 5% increase is all that significant, but perhaps some people warmed up to Steve after seeing him in action.


:ultsephiroth: Sephiroth
Satisfaction: 76.69%

Previous satisfaction score was 91.53% after his Sakurai showcase in December 2020. Sephiroth has suffered a nearly 15% drop since then.

Definitely the biggest complaint against Sephiroth was that some people would’ve preferred a different Final Fantasy character, specifically someone not from FF7 which technically was already represented. Terra Branford and Black Mage were a few examples of some other FF names mentioned by people during the ratings. A few others expressed some slight disdain for Sephiroth getting picked over some other Square characters.

To my surprise, fellow Square Enix character Geno had little to no factor in this score at all, despite him being a widely talked about character in Smash speculation and his chances essentially being reduced to nothing because of Sephiroth. He was only mentioned once or twice, but he didn’t have much of an influence as those people gave Sephiroth super high scores.


:ultpyra:/:ultmythra: Pyra/Mythra
Satisfaction:
69.69% (yes that is the actual number)

Previous satisfaction score was 69.55% in March following their Sakurai showcase. With only a 0.14% increase, virtually nothing has changed since then.

Same deal as before: some people liked their inclusion for Xenoblade 2 getting some proper representation and Pyra/Mythra being seen as better picks than Rex. Others weren't as happy about them for the exact opposite reasons.


:ultkazuya: Kazuya
Satisfaction: 65.58%

Previous satisfaction score was 81.05%, which was after their Sakurai showcase in June. Seems someone threw him off the 80% tier as he dropped by more than 15%.

Main complaints about Kazuya were people hoping for other Namco characters (including fellow Tekken character and cliff-thrower Heihachi). Others saw Kazuya as being too complex especially compared to other FG characters like Terry.


:ultsora: Sora
Satisfaction:
82.10%

As a reminder to everyone: Sora's satisfaction ratings were given before his actual in-game release. This is because the Newcomer speculation forums will be locking only a few days after Sora becomes playable. We wouldn't have had enough time to rate Sora after his release and then wrap up things here in RTC, so we rated him with the rest of the FP2 characters.

Sora is the most liked character of FP2. the 2nd most liked DLC character in general (behind Terry), and the 4th most liked Ultimate newcomer overall.


Fighters Pass 2
Satisfaction:
77.74%

For reference FP1 was 70.87%. With even bigger characters and more in-depth movesets, it's not too surprising that FP2 was more well-received than FP1.

Byleth was a big outlier for the FP1 and FP2 characters, as he had a 40.88% score and the next highest FP1/FP2 after him was Joker who was higher by about 13%. Had it not been for Byleth, I think the gap between the two passes would be much smaller since the other characters are roughly close to each other.

--------------------------------------------------


Here are the full post-FP2 satisfaction scores of every newcomer in Ultimate.

Base Game:
:ultsnake::ultwolf::ulticeclimbers: Everyone Is here:
90.28%
:ultinkling: Inkling: 79.71%
:ultdaisy: Daisy: 46.56%
:ultridley: Ridley: 87.78%
:ultsimon: Simon: 81.05%
:ultrichter:Richter: 73.16%
:ultchrom: Chrom: 64.25%
:ultdarksamus: Dark Samus: 58.37%
:ultkrool: King K. Rool: 91.58%
:ultisabelle: Isabelle: 61.26%
:ultken: Ken: 67.50%
:ultincineroar: Incineroar: 59.11%


FP1 (+Piranha Plant)
:ultpiranha: Piranha Plant: 45.32%
:ultjoker: Joker: 53.46%
:ulthero3: Hero: 75.31%
:ultbanjokazooie: Banjo: 81.72%
:ult_terry: Terry: 85.63%
:ultbyleth: Byleth: 40.88%
Fighters Pass 1: 70.87% (not counting Plant)


FP2
:ultminmin Min Min: 56.79%
:ultsteve: Steve: 74.36%
:ultsephiroth: Sephiroth: 76.69%
:ultpyra::ultmythra: Pyra/Mythra: 69.69%
:ultkazuya: Kazuya: 65.58%
:ultsora: Sora: 82.10%
Fighters Pass 2: 77.74%

Oh, and here's a ranking of all of Ultimate's newcomers based on these scores:

RTC Thread Post-FP2 Satisfaction Score Rankings

FP2 Scores 2.png

The insides of the tiers are ordered and read from left to right. So for example: Ridley is higher than Terry while Joker is below Min Min.​

Top 3 newcomers according to this thread are K. Rool (1st place), Ridley, and Terry.
Bottom 3 are Daisy, Piranha Plant, and Byleth (last place), all of which earned under 50%.



That marks the end of my short time doing calcs here. I can see why Goodgrief liked this so much as it's really fun to analyze why each character scored the way they did. Have fun with this info but don't treat it as gospel since the sample size here isn't too big (roughly 30 or so people).
 
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Golden Icarus

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Looking at that tier list, I want to point out that Terry, a character most of SmashBoards didn’t even know existed, is right in between what are probably the four biggest fan requests. That’s rad.

Also really cool to see K. Rool and Ridley at the top. Those guys were a long time coming and it’s cool to see how grateful the fans are for finally getting their favorite villains in Smash.
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Looking at that tier list, I want to point out that Terry, a character most of SmashBoards didn’t even know existed, is right in between what are probably the four biggest fan requests. That’s rad.

Also really cool to see K. Rool and Ridley at the top. Those guys were a long time coming and it’s cool to see how grateful the fans are for finally getting their favorite villains in Smash.
I was surprised to be honest. Since we rated Terry basically right after his presentation, I expected his scores to fall a little. As it turns out, they stayed pretty much the same. I think the main reason is how good of a legacy pick Terry was and how he objectively came with the best Challenger Pack. I would say the character that surprised me the most was Joker, but to be fair Smashboards has a massive Nintendo tilt compared to the rest of the internet. For example, Dixie Kong, Captain Toad, and Elma were all characters that Smashboards pushed for way harder than the rest of the internet.

Now then, my ratings.

Favorite Moments in Speculation

HM: E3 2019, Terry's presentation, 8/8 Direct, Sephiroth's reveal

Sora's Reveal: The period after Kazuya had its blessings and curses. On one hand, I loved how lesser known choices were getting the spotlight. Franchises like Danganronpa, Ys, or Phantasy Star. On the other hand, the doomerism that this community had was brutal. I hated seeing people say that we would get either Nahobino or a Gen 8 mon, expecting that we had to get another Byleth. It felt miserable that we were hoping for at best a Terry esqe pick and at worst a Byleth esqe pick. I can say personally that I was conditioning myself for a disappointing finale.

Instead, we got one of my never ever picks, and Smash for once ended on a big finale. Sora was clearly one of the best picks to end smash ultimate on. If Smashboards, with its heavy first party tilt and JRPG hesitancy, liked him as much as Banjo, I think you can tell he was done well. Do I have my gripes? Yes, music selection made me a little bit sad, since we did not get Rage Awakened or Vector to the Heavens. But Hollow Bastion as the stage made up for it. Great reveal and great finale.

E3 2018: Are you surprised? One of my most wanted things was to see everyone come back, and we got it. All the cut veterans...well except for Ice Climbers, are great designed revamps of the character. Young Link is this nice mix of aggressive zoning and classic Link stuff after the latter's reworks. Pichu is the ultimate glass cannon. Pokemon Trainer went from being a horribly designed mess to one of Ultimate's best designed characters. Snake is still hte 400 iq zoner but now has had some of his egregious hitboxes toned down. And Wolf is a marvel of game design imo. Returning vets got great changes like more UI icons and a few great redesigns. ALLTP Zelda and OOT Ganon were great picks to help them become more expressive for instance. Overall, I was so glad to see everyone done so well.

I also was happy that the Nintendo All Star crowd was shut up about how it was blasphemous to put Snake or Cloud in "their" crossover game. Seeing two gaming legends in the game was just icing on the cake of seeing everyone together for one big game.

Finally, we got Ridley, and he was done so much justice. Amazing pick and such a well animated, cool character. I am so happy Ultimate Speculation went off with a bang.

Joker's Reveal: Now this might be due to some personal bias. I hated the Nintendo All stars culture. I hated how third party picks were looked at with disgust and were forced through a purity test. People grumbled that Ryu, ****ing Ryu who sold millions of SF2 copies on the SNES, was not pure enough. This kind of gatekeeping should have been dead and buried at E3 2006, but it really was still around even after Cloud. It just created this super toxic atmosphere where people would legit complain about how we got a third party character instead of arbitrarily giving a franchise a new rep because "it deserves it". I hated this toxic attitude and how it meant speculation was tunnel visioned on only a few choices.

Then Joker came. First off, Persona 5 is one of my favorite games ever. I think it is a masterpiece of game design, where after Royal my only gripes might be a weird writing choice or two. The UI, the Combat, the QOL changes from past persona games, the OST, the characters, its all so good. So seeing one of my favorite games of all time not only be announced as Ultimate DLC, but as the first character in the fighter's pass? You had me hyped.

But I loved how it affected speculation. The gates were off now, and the Nintendo all star gatekeeping crowd were drowned out for good. People were discussing Doomguy and Dante openly, and how it would be great to see those two in the game. We saw people talk about so many more third parties and introduce people to new series. Seeing people learn about Falcom or Phantasy Star was something we would not have seen in a pre Joker world. Hell, Master Chief is now a legitimate talking point. Smash speculation is about Gaming as a whole, and I could not be happier.

Worst
HM: Grinch vs Vergebox - 11/1, post Kazuya drought, Isabelle's reveal, Hero getting leaked so hard

The Min Min Steve drought: Now, I know this was not entirely in Nintendo’s control. There’s a global pandemic that will likely have its shadow over the gaming industry for at least another year and a half. But this time period as a Nintendo fan was grueling. There was next to no communication for Nintendo as a whole. Now I know we had a solid drought from Kazuya to Sora, but at least we got news from Nintendo in the meantime. At least we were not going in with radio silence. Literally from the March Direct to Steve’s reveal, we had the Min Min presentation, the Mario direct, and then the announcement for Steve. At best, we got a drip feed of info from Nintendo’s twitter, with news that releases like Pikmin 3 were coming out. It just felt awful getting next to no info for months, with no real idea of when we would get info again.

Byleth’s Reveal: This is not on here believe it or not due to Byleth themselves. As I said with my writeup, I do not have the character but am mildly disappointed with the execution. No this is due to the community itself. On one hand, while I understand the frustration with another Fire Emblem character, the community kind of imploded with its anger. This annoyed me a lot, as people were just being even more toxic about Fire Emblem, a series I do like, in Smash. But what really ground my gears was the backlash to the backlash. First of all, don’t take Hoes Mad, that is the Dragon Quest/Hero fans’ meme, shame on you. But more importantly, it was this attitude that you were not allowed to criticize what we got, else you were somehow ungrateful. It felt like both sides ended up becoming further caricatures of each other. The reveal we were getting ARMS content next certainly did not help either, as it felt like you had people being toxic all around.

Plant Gang:
If you ever wanted to prove that Smash fans will accept almost anything, here you go. The plant gang phase which lasted until about the middle of February was intolerable. For starters, it was kind of a toxic thing to laugh at people who didn’t get a character they wanted in, but then say its hilarious that a Plant got in next. But being toxic is one thing. I mean, Smash has a toxic fandom, I am not too surprised. No, my issue is how fake this was. Literally people only jumped on the plant gang train for the memes, and when the character came out they jumped off. I just hated how disingenuous this whole situation was.


Best RTC Days

Bill Rizer:
Choosing the third day for this was hard, as there were other good candidates. But I liked this one since it was just a low key day of people discussing the possibility of a Contra rep and how it would be cool. There really were not that many debates on this day, moreso just people weighing if Konami were to get a fourth rep would it end up being Bill? I personally think the case is there, though Alucard also would not surprise me.

Concept: SNK Character: If you ever wanted proof that RTC not only improved with the writing changes, but also is actually not terrible at guessing characters, here you go. Sari Sari did a fantastic job making the case SNK was a real dark horse choice, and it was great for people to start to warm up to the idea right before we would see that Terry was coming. IMO, this is what should be seen as the ideal RTC day: one where the spirit of debate combines with the ability to spotlight a character or concept.

Adol Christian:
In terms of the day in particular, the first day we did him. Kudos to SharkLord SharkLord for writing an amazing writeup of Adol. Adol’s supporters came out in such full force on what was a relatively low turnout day, he managed to top the charts for want.

The curious thing is that even when we re rated him, Adol’s Want did not plummet. He still had quite a healthy, positive want score at the end of the day. Adol’s supporters made a strong case how he would be a Terry like pick: a smaller Japanese company whose legacy and influence on the genre would make the case for their inclusion in Smash, especially when it is a character that has a solid bit of legacy to them like Adol. To be honest, I am gonna say keep an eye on this one for the next smash. I would not be surprised if we do end up getting Adol at some point down the line.
 

Sari

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Gonna leave this before the day ends but I think anyone who makes a big, persuasive writeup for their characters are the MVPs of this thread. It doesn't matter if the actual characters get in or not: I think the main thing I love about this thread is convincing people to be interested in these characters. I mentioned a few earlier, but some other good writeups off the top of my head were Goodgrief's Atari writeup, Mr. MR's Monster Hunter writeup, DanganZilla5's Bill Rizer/Contra essay, and SharkLord's Reimu/Touhou essay.
 

slrigeigdew

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:ultpyra:/:ultmythra: Pyra/Mythra
Satisfaction:
69.69% (yes that is the actual number)

Previous satisfaction score was 69.55% in March following their Sakurai showcase. With only a 0.14% increase, virtually nothing has changed since then.

Same deal as before: some people liked their inclusion for Xenoblade 2 getting some proper representation and Pyra/Mythra being seen as better picks than Rex. Others weren't as happy about them for the exact opposite reasons.
That's beautiful. Poetic really. Speaking of DLC Sora just came out but I don't think my score will change drastically now that he's in my hands. He's basically what I expected: floaty swordie with flashy combos and comes with a beautiful stage. Money well spent

Favorite Moments in Speculation

Where have you been? Been searching all along...: Waiting for Joker was like waiting to open Christmas presents under the tree, except you weren't sure the presents were there until like Christmas Eve. I remember the first half of 2019 was just me coming home from school and eagerly checking the Smash website and forums for any updates/leaks for Joker's release date. My most vivid memory at the time was when someone made an ugly ass fake render for Joker just before his official render was leaked by Best Buy. Seeing his gameplay after being teased for over 4 months was like reliving the night of the VGAs all over again.

The rise and fall of Vergeben: He was a key figure in the Grinch Leak debate as well as the CP5 discussion with all the deconfirmations during the VGAs but everyone wrote him off when no Minecraft content was in the base game and no Square character in the first DLC pass. Seeing him vindicated two years after the release of the game with the inclusion of Minecraft and several Square characters was almost as satisfying as seeing him immediately tarnish his reputation again by "leaking" Master Chief the night before Nintendo's E3. The way he "leaked" it was so arrogant and obnoxious that I can't really sympathize with someone who tried to ruin the fun for everyone so close to the reveal.

Hotgirl WHAT!?!: To follow up on the previous moment, seeing all the weird accounts that tried to pass themselves off as legit insiders only to be completely disproven by the next character reveal was also hilarious. While there was some legit informants like Imran Khan and Samushunter, there were way too many shady figures that not only proven to be clowns but the entire circus. I'm talking about loz18, S*bi, Mandycan, Obese male on frozen water etc. The one that will always stand out to me was Tiffany Treadmore . Never let the Smash speculation community live down the fact that a portion of them was hanging off every word and blurry image of an account literally named Hotgirlvideos69. **** was like a living parody of itself.

Honorable mention goes to the leadup to Nintendo's E3 in 2019/2021, couldn't settle on one as they were both hype in their own way. Felt like these were the only periods where people allowed their imagination to run wild and not constantly doom post.

Least favorite moments

Food, water, atmosphere...: Whenever there was a drought between characters was easily the least fun I've had with speculation. The wait between base game and Joker was annoying especially because there was so many good opportunities to show off Joker's moveset alongside the reveal of Stage builder instead of shadow dropping it a day before release. Byleth and Min Min was absolutely terrible because it felt like the community was divided in ways we haven't seen since the Brawl vs Project M vs Melee days. No IRL tournaments, no good online, many figure heads outed as terrible people, and no hype characters around the corner it was really hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The wait between Kazuya and Sora was fine if a bit tiresome because most people were either expecting a huge internet shattering pick or doom posting about Cinderace or Jonesy. I'm surprised people were still thinking we'd be getting an SMTV rep even when the character was revealed to be announced on October but I think it's moreso that they wanted the salt from the reveal rather than the actual character. The smash community can be extremely petty like that.

Hindsight is 2020: Seeing all the characters essentially deconfirmed in 2020 alone was heartbreaking because I know these characters were supported by the community for years. While Tekken and Sora would eventually get their chance in 2021, characters like Travis Touchdown and Geno had their fates permanently sealed by mii costumes. The reputation of the first Geno thread specifically is not unlike Vergeben's character arc, one moment they seemed like they were on top of the world and the next they're the laughing stock of the community. The one positive of the character deconfirmations is that it forced the community to consider other options instead of relying on day 1 predictions based off of fake leaks and rumors.

It's over, isn't it?: The reveal of Sora meant the end of Smash Bros character speculation for a very long time, as they confirmed that there would be no more characters or Fighter Passes after Challenger Pack 11. The journey through DLC was a rollercoaster of emotions but I'm genuinely happy it started and ended on a highnote for me. It's a bittersweet feeling because I've wanted to know the full roster of this game for years and now that I know the answer I feel entirely... hollow (and no, it has nothing to do with Sora or his stage). It feels like a huge chapter of my life has closed and now I don't know what to do with myself. I guess I can start off with playing that fun platform fighter with a ton of characters in it.

Honorable mention goes to that totally bogus Rapper Mario leak that gained traction for some reason. It hurt seeing it everywhere on Youtube because I knew it was fake and it gave me false hope for my favorite video game lawyer but at the same time I got to pretend how hype it would have been to have one of my favorite series represented in Smash. Oh well, I still got Persona and I'll forever be grateful for Sakurai and the Smash team for that.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Gonna end the day now. We are in the endgame folks.

Today marks the final day of RTC. Before we say our goodbyes, we have one last fun activity. What five first and third party characters would you say gun to your head are the most likely? Discuss what characters in particular for next time you think have a strong shot.

Also please no blanket new fire emblem/Pokémon posts those are no fun.

Also, today is the last day of RTC before the forms close. It is time for final goodbyes :(.
 
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DanganZilla5

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First Party
  • Akira Howard - Nintendo bought the rights to Astral Chain after just one title. That's a big deal right there, that means that Nintendo is confident in its future. As long as the next Switch is powerful enough to handle both Akira and Legion at the same time, I feel like Akira is a near lock.
  • Ring Fit Trainee - Ring Fit was surprisingly successful and could serve as the next game's WTF character in the same vein as Wii Fit Trainer. I mean, if your exercise game beat God of War in sales, that says a lot.
  • Isaac - He is one of the biggest requests remaining and with Nintendo reviving so many series from Famicom Detective Club to Advance Wars, I can see them resurrecting Golden Sun next. Once Golden Sun gets a new game, that should be the final push to convince Sakurai to put him in.
  • Octolings - It's clear that Nintendo still has a strong focus on Splatoon and an interest in expanding it. I could easily see the series get another rep for the next game and the Octolings are the frontrunners.
  • Ashley - This spot originally went to new Pokemon/FE character but I wanted to be more bold and put down a less obvious prediction. Now this last spot could go to lots of characters, depending on my mood. But Ashley stands out to me. For one, she has been an assist trophy for two games in a row. Now some people will say that indicates that Sakurai isn't interested in making her a playable character. But my logic goes another way. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Ashley is the only WarioWare character to get an assist trophy, not just once but twice. I think that cements her as the frontrunner of the series. Now the chances of WarioWare getting a new character depends on if the series can keep up with its momentum over the next couple years. Nintendo did advertise the new WarioWare game a lot and from what I heard it sold well. The only reason why Ashley gives me pause is because after her assist trophy came back for Ultimate, her demand nearly vanished. I'm afraid that she may become the next Krystal where her demand might not come back strong and she will stay in assist trophy purgatory. But only time will tell if the Ashley fans are willing to rally up again and voice their opinion as the next game is announced.
Third Party
  • Dante - One of the characters mentioned by Sakurai as being highly requested. He exploded in popularity and while his demand did dim a bit, I expect him to be a loud request when the next game gets announced. Devil May Cry is a very popular and influential series, and with Capcom having such a vast library of characters to choose from and seemingly being easy to work with, I expect them to get a new character in the next game.
  • Crash - There is a reason why he was one of the top dogs for a while there. Just over the past couple years his demand grew exponentially and while his demand may have came too late for Ultimate, Nintendo surely must have noticed the requests by now. Not to mention they acknowledge him as a gaming icon. By the time Smash 6 comes around Crash will probably be the next Banjo, and as long as he keeps up momentum he will be in a good spot.
  • Dragonborn - The Microsoft acquisition complicates his situation...but honestly I'm gonna go bold here. I think Dragonborn will be more likely than Master Chief and Doomguy. The main reason why I say that is because Japan loves Skyrim. It sold very well over there, it was the first western game to get a perfect score on Famitsu, and it was even an inspiration for BOTW. And with the 8 million rereleases, Skyrim is still alive and kicking. The only reason why Skyrim keeps getting ported is because people keep buying it, after a decade! That's saying something. With Sakurai giving a honorable mention to him, that proves that he is criminally overlooked in speculation.
  • Shantae - I think it's about time that we get an indie character. Smash Ultimate broke the barrier for western third parties, so when Smash 6 comes out, I wouldn't be surprised if it broke another barrier. Ultimate was the first game to feature indies as Miis so Nintendo and Sakurai acknowledges how big of a deal indie games have become. Now when it comes to this territory, there is a lot of routes they could take. There is Cave Story, the father of indies, there is Reimu who is super popular in Japan and who would be very easy to get the rights to, there is Undertale which took the world by storm, there is Shovel Knight who got the honor of getting an assist trophy, there is The Knight whose game Nintendo promoted a lot and its future seems promising, and finally you have the genie girl. Shantae has been a consistent request for a while now and no doubt she did well on the ballot. But what really elevates her is being in the same Mii wave as Dragonborn, Lloyd and Dante. That's a pretty dam big deal. That right there gives her a higher chance than most of the indies I just mentioned. Not to mention Nintendo and Wayforward have a great relationship and nowadays you can play most of the Shantae games on the Switch. When you combine all of that together, it gives her a real strong case for next game.
  • Bomberman - This last spot is kind of tentative in my mind. I considered putting down Bill Rizer, Ryu Hayabusa, and a couple other people. But right now my gut says Bomberman. What stands out to me is that Sakurai did do a bit of buildup right before revealing Bomberman's assist trophy. Not only that but he said something like "Yep, he's here too." This tells me that Sakurai has a moderate level of interest in Bomberman, he knows that Bomberman is popular and beloved. And if the Castlevania content is anything to go by, it's that Konami are not that tough to deal with and honestly they were underrated in this speculation cycle. They got a wealth of characters to choose from, and Bomberman got both an assist trophy and a Mii. He's just a third party character that makes a lot of sense.

Goodbye post is coming later.
 
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2006ToyotaTacoma

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First Party

Akira Howard: Nintendo buying out the IP from Platinum sings of confidence in the series in my opinion, and should a sequel do well I could very easily see Astral Chain get a new fighter come next game, so long as whatever console can handle both Akira and the legions.

Octoling: I think it's pretty obvious that Splatoon is Nintendo's next big golden goose, and I'd be beyond shocked if they don't get a new rep next game. That said, I'll say the Octoling is probably the safest route to go for, but they could go for a curveball like Dr. Octavio, the Squid Sisters or Off the Hook perhaps.

Bandana Dee: One of the largest remaining 1st party requests and still having an active role in the Kirby franchise, I can definitely see BWD getting his time next game.

Waluigi: Ok legit given Waluigi's insane fan demand should he NOT get in next game I'm convinced Sakurai's got a personal vendetta against him or something.

Excitebiker: A bold take but hear me out. Every Smash game iirc has had a retro pick in their base game (Game n' Watch in Melee, ROB in Brawl, Duck Hunt in 4, Simon(?) in Ultimate), so I can definitely see another retro pick come next base game, and my pick for that would be the Excitebiker, but many others could work.

Third Party

Dante:
He was mentioned as one of the highly requested Mii Costumes, is sure to have relevance in the future, and is definitely one of the larger fan picks right now, and can only see it ballooning once the new Smash comes out. Pair that with Capcom's easiness to work with for Nintendo, and Dante has a solid shot for the next game.

Frisk/Sans/Kris: Undertale and Deltarune have seen explosive popularity, had Sans as a Mii Costume with a reaction of biblical proportions, have a good presence on the Switch, hell TOBY FOX PLAYED SMASH WITH SAKURAI. If we're getting any Indie rep next game it's gonna be a Toby Fox creation I'd bet on it.

Crash Bandicoot: Crash has seen explosive popularity during Ultimate's lifecycle and while it may have been too late for Ultimate, it could be just right for the next game. So long as his support chugs along healthily, I'll say he's a good shot for Smash 6, so long as Activision is willing to play ball that is.

Chun Li: Capcom's been pushing Chun Li into crossovers hard as of recent, and paired with the already mentioned easiness of working with Capcom, I could see yet another Street Fighter character join the roster next game.

Chosen Undead/Solaire: I know a lot of people would say a Tales rep for the next Bandai-Namco spot but in my opinion a Dark Souls rep is possibly even likelier. Dark Souls has had a good amount of support for it's Switch appearances, so much so that Solaire was one of the first 3rd parties to get an Amiibo. Should Bandai-Namco be assisting in development of the next Smash game as well, and Dark Souls may as well be a bonafide shoe-in come next game.

It's kind of insane that this whole speculation forum dies tomorrow. I probably won't be that active still since I'm bogged down with college work, but I'll just say it's been a bats*** insane honor to guess characters horribly wrong with you all.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Gonna end the day now. We are in the endgame folks.

Today marks the final day of RTC. Before we say our goodbyes, we have one last fun activity. What five first and third party characters would you say gun to your head are the most likely? Discuss what characters in particular for next time you think have a strong shot.

Also please no blanket new fire emblem/Pokémon posts those are no fun.
Wait I'm confused, are the final goodbyes today like the title says or the next day?


As for predictions, y'all have seen how vastly **** changed in the last 3 years for speculation and a ton of you have seen the same for 4 years prior to that, I'm not gonna bother predicting what will happen as there's so much that can change
 

Rie Sonomura

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I already posted my final goodbye to smash ultimate speculation in the DLC thread

anyway, most likely for next game:

First party:
1. Octoling, either as an Inkling echo or even unique. There’s very little Splatoon 2 content in Ultimate, most of the content is focused on 1 like with Inkling’s move set, the Squid Sisters Assist Trophy, and the miis of Callie, Marie, (Enemy) Octoling and Mr. Judd. The playable Octoling here would be the cuter Octo Expansion version and come with Octo Expansion music and more content. Maybe alts based on Splatfests so their ink colors differ from Inklings (esp if Chaos vs Order is used, which has metallic textures for the ink) Only issue is RIP Splatoon 3 representation; depending on when next Smash starts development.
2. Elma. Yes I’m still banking on her and not a hypothetical XC3 protag. For one, some rumors have suggested XC3 will have recurring characters that are “ageless” like Pyra/Mythra, Melia and Nia. It may just even be a big ol Xeno crossover, not having a singular unique protagonist. Plus, Elma’s game is likely to have a direct sequel where she returns.
3. Chorus Kids if their rhythm mechanic can be safely implemented; if not then an Advance Wars rep (series recently made a resurgence with Re-Boot Camp)
4. Officer Howard, depending on how the system handles similar characters. If not, maybe Ring Fit Trainee
5. Dixie Kong or Bandana Dee. Personally I think the former is more likely

Third party:
1. Arle Nadja. Mizuki Hosoyamada is a fan of Smash, Puyo is MASSIVE in Japan, we can get another puzzle rep aside from Dr. Mario (sorry Lip)
2. Neku Sakuraba. A DS generation rep who we so desperately need, plus he knows Sora from KH3D. We’d have a KH reunion of Cloud, Sephiroth, Sora and Neku. Also, lots of moveset potential and excellent music
3. Phoenix Wright. Another DS rep, and if they don’t do another ballot Dante is likely to return as a Mii especially on the off chance next Smash is just an expanded 4K port of Ultimate (best outcome for me IMO). Plus, he also knows Ryu, Ken, Chrom, Lucina and Kazuya from Project X Zone 2 :awesome: AND I hope he plays similarly to Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3. He better come with his themes from that game too
4. A League of Legends champion. League is pretty freakin massive worldwide, and Riot essentially already has their foot in the door, due to at least one League based game coming to Switch (Ruined King) and their parent company, Tencent, being involved with Pokémon Unite. Imagine the copyright screen saying Microsoft, Disney AND Tencent though… HOO BOY 😳
5. Any of these three: Master Chief (he’d really break the internet), Crash Bandicoot (same), or Reimu Hakurei (our first true indie rep, plus ZUN wants Touhou to be popular worldwide)

hopefully in Crash’s case, Activision Blizzard will have resolved their controversies by next game
 
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Ridrool64

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Best moment of speculation: Honestly... I dunno what that was, but I want to say the period after Terry was revealed, it felt like everybody had a chance no matter what once again. It was this magical reset that gave every fighter a huge shot in the arm. It also took a lot of the sting out of Byleth even IF people still hated them, we'd probably be seeing them get a 20% satisfaction otherwise.

Worst moment of speculation: The great ARMS wait, the period of time between ARMS and Min Min getting teased/revealed. Since we knew what was coming there was simply nothing else. It doesn't help that it was 5 months after Byleth and 4 months before Steve, so we had effectively half a year of no news. That straight up sucked the hype out of me.

Best RTC day: Adol Christin. Came in unsure of why this guy would ever happen, now think of him as a character who would be a good addition even if not personally to my taste. Honorable mention to Bill Rizer, pretty much everybody agreed Contra in Smash would be great and Contra's one of those things we're all aware of, so...

First parties to watch out for in the next game (for bonus points, I'll be skipping the obligatory Pokémon and Fire Emblem characters, but they'd slot in over Isaac and Raven Beak if I did include them):
  1. Waluigi - At this point he IS the most wanted first party character no doubt about it, and is probably the last first party with Ridley like appeal. His inclusion would not be terribly surprising.
  2. Tom Nook: Animal Crossing is getting huge rather fast. While I personally don't think a third AC rep is necessary if Isabelle is anything to go by, I don't think that skipping out on a newcomer from the Switch's second biggest game is a good idea.
  3. Isaac: Waluigi, but as the Smash fandom pick. If Waluigi is the Ridley (extremely popular, around most of the time even if they're never the most important, purple, considered a joke candidate by a significant portion of the fandom), then Isaac is the King K. Rool (very popular within the fandom with some influence outside of it, has been MIA for a decade, holds significance to a studio that has worked on Mario properties).
  4. Octolings: Splatoon was probably the biggest hit on the Wii U that didn't have Mario in it, Splatoon 2 was even bigger than that, and Splatoon 3 is a thing so there's no way Splatoon is going anywhere anytime soon. They have plenty of moveset potential and can slot in easily as an Echo Fighter, semi-clone, Wolf-clone (all 3 of Inklings), or even an entirely unique character, and being so adaptable means I don't see a future without Octolings in some form.
  5. Raven Beak: Okay hear me out here. Metroid Dread has been crushing series records and has been the biggest launch in the series thus far. I at least expect an E.M.M.I Zone stage in the next game and Raven Beak shows incredible potential within the game itself.
  6. Honorable mentions: Andy, Ayumi Tachibana (they have relevance now, which could help, but they still have factors holding them back IMO and are very vulnerable to being out prioritized), a new Kirby/Zelda character (as long overdue as they are, I have a sneaking suspicion that these trends will continue), Officer Howard (if hardware issues crop up again they're SOL but otherwise they've got a pretty good shot, I just think they're gonna get out prioritized), a WTF pick in the vein of the ones we have (the point is I can't predict them, so it would be a fool's errand to try. But if I had to pick one, LABO Man for a hardware rep).
  7. Pokémon Gen they'll pull from: 10
  8. FE game they'll pull from: The most recent one that isn't a remake, which could be 18, 19 or 20.
Third parties to watch out for in the next game:
  1. Arle or Kiryu (possibly both in separate groups of newcomers): SEGA has been a staunch supporter of Nintendo ever since going third party with several exclusives so I think them getting a newcomer is a no brainer. As for who, I don't think it's gonna be another rep from a represented series just yet, but rather SEGA's biggest two franchises that aren't Sonic (or from Atlus, although if I recall correctly that first statement still applies even then). Both Puyo Puyo and Yakuza have what it takes so it could honestly go either way, but I think Puyo Puyo would do better as a base game addition (Puyo has a lot of stuff to represent), and Yakuza as a DLC one (Yakuza is bigger in the west).
  2. Dante or Phoenix Wright or Monster Hunter (possibly multiple in separate groups of newcomers): The Capcom equivalent to the big three, all of them have fan demand, star power, and relevance so I really don't see a difference between the three from a speculative standpoint. I GUESS if I had to pick one, it'd be the Monster Hunter as that has its foot in the door the most.
  3. Ryu Hayabusa: Not because of the Smash rumor mill still lingering on in my head, but mostly because of the great relationship Nintendo and Koei-Tecmo have gathered.
  4. Adol Christin: The Terry esque "WTF?" character for the west, but in the east, Ys is better known and better recognized as an important series. Just has that same legacy magic, y'know?
  5. Frisk or Sans (possibly both in separate groups of newcomers), and if Deltarune is complete by that time, possibly Kris: Undertale is the biggest indie series in Smash, got the biggest treatment in Smash first (behind only Cuphead which has some connection to Microsoft but I'm not sure what), remains relevant via Deltarune and Toby Fox has done work with Nintendo via GameFreak. I don't think it's past the point of reasonability.
  6. Honorable mentions: Crash Bandicoot and any other ActiBliz rep (if ActiBliz gets their **** together then probably, but otherwise I think that would be too controversial for Nintendo to risk), Master Chief (if the MS/Nintendo relationship goes south, then Chief/Banjo/Steve are SOL, otherwise I would not be surprised to see him), Indie characters outside of Undertale (only one IMO that made a comparable impact is Five Nights at Freddy's, but with Undertale getting acknowledged already I think it'll take priority. The rest besides FNF and Among Us, which could very easily be flashes in pans, all are iconic to gamers but have little power outside of that bubble. That might be enough for some though, like Shovel Knight, Shantae, the Knight, Madeleine, Hat Kid, etc.), somebody from Konami like Frogger or Bill Rizer (Konami seems fickle like they might not stick around or might get outprioritized), SEGA/Capcom reps that aren't the ones I listed (if they're from a returning series, I don't think that's priority number one. If they're NOT, then I think they struggle to compete with the ones I mentioned or have some other issue, or I ), Sol Badguy or Ragna the Bloodedge (I think ArcSys could happen but I just don't think it's gonna), a Bamco rep (honestly, this was just a room thing. I think we'd get more new third parties than veteran ones, but if I had a 6th slot I'd go for them), a Square-Enix rep (7th, but it's either a veteran series getting a new character or Chrono Trigger via Crono, I'm a full nonbeliever in Geno right now), Jason and SOPHIA (there's like 5 notable NES games that aren't in Smash yet, Ninja Gaiden, Contra, Double Dragon, Gradius and Blaster Master, and I think all of them could happen besides Gradius).
I tried to check my biases at the door, so I didn't want to just put the same names as usual. The fact that there are so many honorable mentions means I think basically anybody who isn't from a bad game, Sony or non gaming media has a serious shot. Even if I didn't explicitly mention them as having a chance I think that somebody could easily blindside me and show what I thought I knew was entirely incorrect. By virtue of there being so many characters that won't happen, we're inevitably going to get more wrong than right, but that's the thing with speculation, seeing who came the closest.

It's been a trip, hasn't it? And while I can't say I loved the whole thing, honestly... it was quite the experience. See you guys in 2026-28!
 
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