Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Well last time I did say I had no definitive predictions and just posted some cases for my most wanted characters but I will give it a try here.

So what has changed since last time? I previously made cases for Rayman, The Knight and Bandana Waddle Dee. With Pyra/Mythra added and the chance of us getting FP3/Bonus characters after the last two fighters looking very slim, it's safe to say one of those three ain't getting in and as much as it hurts to say, P/M hurts BWD's chances the most. Despite that, I still believe he's in the running and so are the other two. For the sake of not repeating myself and being biased, I won't go into detail on them and give some attention to other characters I don't mention as often.

Before that. I'll give some names I'm really not confident in currently. Not impossible but I won't considering them as of now..

• Isaac- He already was a long shot with Nintendo not giving his series any attention and his AT and Costume already there but with P/M getting in, leaving only two spots open, yet another first-party seems not that likely, especially not a first-party like him. Both are from JRPG's, after all. The new Mario Golf should also dash any hopes of Camelot working on a GS project for the forseeable future. (assuming they are the ones developing Golf cause I'm not sure that's confirmed)
• Any Pokemon character- P/M hurts this too but that's not the biggest reason. I've already expressed my doubts for a Pokemon because of the Gen 8 spirit event but we also just had a Pokemon themed tournament last week and that just seems like the nail in the coffin to me. I think they would've held that one back if it a Pokemon was in the pass, or released that Pokemon earlier. Also, I don't buy Decidueye getting a second chance because of Legend Arceus. Incinaroar was straight up chosen over him and I really feel that when it comes to a Pokemon as DLC, it's Gen 8 or bust.
• Any Capcom rep- When our latest Mii Costume wave is basically a Capcom promotion, it brings into question why they realeased alongside P/M and not a character like Phoenix or Dante if they were planned. As an avid Rayman defender, I can't say they are 100% out but the timing of it all just makes this case feel different and I can't really see a Capcom character happening anymore
• Lloyd/Any Namco rep- Yeah yeah, Lloyd has managed to avoid getting costumed for so long but I doubt it will last. Just look at how Geno turned out. I believe Lloyd will just fall to the same fate. It really just feels like that one meme of the Grim reaper knocking at his door after having slaugthered his neighbors. With the Heihachi and Gil costumes also appearing earlier in seperate waves, it seems like Namco in general is toast and that they'll legit only have Pacman.
• Anyone owned by Square or Microsoft- Kinda agreed upon by most people that certain companies won't get multiple characters in one pass for the sake of fairness and diversiveness, except for Nintendo of course. Not everybody may subscribe to that but I view it that if Steve and Sephiroth are in then Master Chief, Neku and 2B are out.

Actual predictions start here. Will throw these characters to the wall and see which ones will stick.

• Arle- Puyo Puyo has legacy on it's side, is huge in the east and has gained quite some momentum in the west thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris. That game and and it's sequel have both been promoted by Nintendo in Directs/presentations and are generally treated as bigger third-party announcements. They seem to love the series so much they put a untranslated Puyo Puyo Super Famicom game on the western SNES online instead of its localized Kirby counterpart which still seems a little strange. Other things in her favor include a fair amount of fan demand back in Smash 4, fairly little competition from other SEGA candidates and likely having somre pretty unique potential for a playstyle.
• Crash/Hayabusa- Putting these two together cause everybody seems to do so and they are just in pretty similar positions. Both of them just seem to have about everything in their favor. They're iconic. They have legacy, relevancy, popularity, are mascots from unrepped third-parties and they've been getting alot of attention by Nintendo recently. I disagree that they are locks but I can absolutely understand why so many are fixed on these two.
• Sol- Arc System has developped some of the most highly praised fighting games out there and I could see Nintendo/Sakurai wanting to reward them for that. Sol, being their main guy, could then easily be next in line for a traditional fighting game character. The newest Guilty Gear may not come to the Switch (for now) but could still make for a good cross promotion.
• Captain Toad/Waluigi- They're Mario characters. One has his own game and the other has rediculous fan demand. I barely have to explain myself here. If there's a first-party who can still compete with Bandana Waddle Dee, its probably one of these two. BTW I'm of the opinion that if an AT would recieve a upgrate that Waluigi would be the character they'd do that for.
• The human/Frisk- Maybe, I'm just in a Undertale mood at the moment but I can imagine Nintendo looking at how big that game has become and watching the insane reception to the Sans costume reveal and think "You know, this can have potential" and request a actual Challenger pack. The timing would be pretty tight considering that costume reveal coincided with the reveal of DLC past Volume 1 but I think the possibility is there. Especially taking into account the game still not having Spirits yet Cuphead having them which seems kinda suspicious.

That kinda settles it. I'm keeping my eye on this list of characters:
-Arle Nadja
-Bandana Waddle Dee
-Captain Toad
-Crash Bandicoot
-The Human (Undertale)
-The Knight (Hollow Knight)
-Rayman
-Ryu Hayabusa
-Sol Badguy
-Waluigi

Skullgirls rep xThe amount of noms this post is worth

 

[Cutie Gwen]

"I see. Too many swordmen are there?" - Sothis

The way they acknowledged Waluigi should be good indicator that they should know stigma toward sword character... well at least Fire Emblem characters. If they never cared, they would've never put that line.

As already said, they added more swordfighters after it. It's not a serious concern for Nintendo as that line was a joke. Also I thought this was the Newcomer thread and I get more jokey there than in here, oops.

 

[Inue Houji]

Predictions post-Xenoblade
So previously I predicted Lloyd, Hayabusa and Pokémon, so one of my predictions were obviously wrong.
Does that affect my remaining predictions? Not particularly.
As for what my predictions are:

Lloyd Irving
Yep, still in on this one. I admit I was nervous during the Pythra presentation, but he's still in this. He's now the last remaining Mii costume from Smash 4 that isn't in. It just gets more and more suspicious. Now, we could have an Isaac situation on our hands, but I doubt it. There are multiple things that could indicate he's coming to Smash, and as I've said in the past, the trademarked icons are the most damning. They have an eerily similar style to the one used in Smash.(I know they were used for Tales of 25th too)
There's also Lloyd's voice actor NDA which has yet to be confirmed(afaik), and the Tales of 25th Festival which is an opportunity for promotion.

Pokémon
While I originally predicted a gen "9" Pokémon, that seems unlikely with the big announcements made a short while ago. While I'm unsure what exactly they will promote, doing so seems very possible.
Smash cycles have always ended on a low note, and I don't think this time is any different.
As for what Pokémon it would be, there's a headscratcher. Gen 4 is already represented by Lucario, the most popular Pokémon of that generation. The legendaries are all stage hazards or Pokéballs already.
The most likely would appear to be the starters, but then the question arises, which ones?
The Arceus game does not use the gen 4 starters, instead they went for the Cyndaquil, Rowlett and Oshawott lines.
There's also the possibility that they'll introduce a new Pokémon.

Honorable mentions:

Ryu Hayabusa
He's still possible, but as Lloyd Irving is my safest bet, and I expect the shill pick for last, he just doesn't fit.

Falcom rep
Probably Adol, maybe Estelle. The possible "Terry pick".

Reimu Hakurei
Easy to negotiate compared to the size of the franchise, a massive legacy and lots of influence in Japan.


Nominations
Rallen x40

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

and as I've said in the past, the trademarked icons are the most damning. They have an eerily similar style to the one used in Smash.

Those icons were for the Tales of 25th Anniversary logo.

 

[Aerospherology]

Judging from the new bug in 11.0.0, Reimu and Crash.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Judging from the new bug in 11.0.0, Reimu and Crash.

What about the bug in particular points to Reimu? From what I've heard it feels way more Decidueye than anything,

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Judging from the new bug in 11.0.0, Reimu and Crash.

I understand Reimu, but where does Crash factor into the bug?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

What about the bug in particular points to Reimu? From what I've heard it feels way more Decidueye than anything,

The projectiles went right through the fighters in the glitch, coincidentally, that's exactly how Graze is implemented in the fighting games

 

[Yiptap]

Well, the Touhou fangames are not canon and never were, don't know where you got that one from.

Sorry, I heard they were canon. I stand corrected.

 

[SharkLord]

What about the bug in particular points to Reimu? From what I've heard it feels way more Decidueye than anything,

new bug in 11.0: projectiles sometimes completely ignore specifically head hurtboxes when moving forward (or going from dash to run, im not sure)
i first saw this with byleth's arrow and jigglypuff's head, but it seems to affect any projectile in the game pic.twitter.com/fMVobjX5Sw

— angie🌙 (@firubiii) March 7, 2021

This one, not the Dark Pit glitch. It affects all the characters, apparently, which I find more believable than just a single character-specific glitch, though not by much. It's basically how Grazing work in the official Touhou fighters; Dashing makes you immune to projectiles. Aside from that, it also specifies that it's ignoring the head hurtbox. In the mainline Touhou games, characters have hitboxes that are smaller than the actual sprites, which would be in line with the adjustable hitboxes here.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Still wanna know how that glitch implies Crash though...

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

The projectiles went right through the fighters in the glitch, coincidentally, that's exactly how Graze is implemented in the fighting games

Good point, but to be fair it really could be anything. Plus not all bugs end up panning out, we have yet to see anything with Daisy skirt glitch for instance.

EDIT: It's not the Dark Pit one? Okay that makes more sense. Still, it's just...bizarre that it's only affecting character heads.

 

[SharkLord]

Still wanna know how that glitch implies Crash though...

Probably because Crash is the easy "safe" pick that has all the bases covered and not much in the way of obstacles. Granted, it's not like a lack of obstacles has made characters take priority; Just ask Monster Hunter.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Still wanna know how that glitch implies Crash though...

Because... it just does.

 

[Inue Houji]

Probably because Crash is the easy "safe" pick that has all the bases covered and not much in the way of obstacles. Granted, it's not like a lack of obstacles has made characters take priority; Just ask Monster Hunter.

I still don't get how the glitch has anything to do with Crash. In what way does the glitch affect Crash's chances?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Good point, but to be fair it really could be anything. Plus not all bugs end up panning out, we have yet to see anything with Daisy skirt glitch for instance.

EDIT: It's not the Dark Pit one? Okay that makes more sense. Still, it's just...bizarre that it's only affecting character heads.

I agree that this glitch, like every other glitch, is simply a glitch. Because every video game has glitches. Just explaining the mentality and how that for once, people are able to tie a glitch into a specific thing even if it's grasping at straws imo

 

[Deleted member]

Remaining FP2 predictions

#1 - A Tales of rep
As many have noticed, the Lloyd Irving Mii Costume is the last one to not have shown up as DLC yet, thus leading to speculation that a character from Tales of is a fair possibility.
It should also be noted that the series is one of the few Bandai Namco properties to not be referenced in Ultimate yet, notably through 's Namco Roulette.
That said, I also have the feeling it's not gonna be Lloyd Irving, as none of the third-party Mii Costumes has been promoted as a fighter since Smash 4 so far. Thus I'm placing my bet on Yuri Lowell. It also helps the Switch port of his game is a great success.

#2 - Some 3rd-party heavy hitter
I think we're done with 1st-party characters in this Pass, and that Nintendo is gonna end it with a bang with a familiar face.
My choice would be Crash, simply due to the huge amount of requests he has.
Master Chief, Doom Slayer and Lara Croft would be viable choices as well but I doubt we'll get a second character from the same 3rd-party company/publisher in the same pass.

 

[SharkLord]

I still don't get how the glitch has anything to do with Crash. In what way does the glitch affect Crash's chances?

It doesn't, he's just there as the second character in the predictions because he's Crash and doesn't need any glitches or theories to justify his inclusion. He can just be tossed wherever in the predictions, regardless of context.

 

[Inue Houji]

It doesn't, he's just there as the second character in the predictions because he's Crash and doesn't need any glitches or theories to justify his inclusion. He can just be tossed wherever in the predictions, regardless of context.

Ah, just a case of bad phrasing. Guess I could have inferred that from the context.

 

[Pillow]

Well last time I did say I had no definitive predictions and just posted some cases for my most wanted characters but I will give it a try here.

So what has changed since last time? I previously made cases for Rayman, The Knight and Bandana Waddle Dee. With Pyra/Mythra added and the chance of us getting FP3/Bonus characters after the last two fighters looking very slim, it's safe to say one of those three ain't getting in and as much as it hurts to say, P/M hurts BWD's chances the most. Despite that, I still believe he's in the running and so are the other two. For the sake of not repeating myself and being biased, I won't go into detail on them and give some attention to other characters I don't mention as often.

Before that. I'll give some names I'm really not confident in currently. Not impossible but I won't considering them as of now..

• Isaac- He already was a long shot with Nintendo not giving his series any attention and his AT and Costume already there but with P/M getting in, leaving only two spots open, yet another first-party seems not that likely, especially not a first-party like him. Both are from JRPG's, after all. The new Mario Golf should also dash any hopes of Camelot working on a GS project for the forseeable future. (assuming they are the ones developing Golf cause I'm not sure that's confirmed)
• Any Pokemon character- P/M hurts this too but that's not the biggest reason. I've already expressed my doubts for a Pokemon because of the Gen 8 spirit event but we also just had a Pokemon themed tournament last week and that just seems like the nail in the coffin to me. I think they would've held that one back if it a Pokemon was in the pass, or released that Pokemon earlier. Also, I don't buy Decidueye getting a second chance because of Legend Arceus. Incinaroar was straight up chosen over him and I really feel that when it comes to a Pokemon as DLC, it's Gen 8 or bust.
• Any Capcom rep- When our latest Mii Costume wave is basically a Capcom promotion, it brings into question why they realeased alongside P/M and not a character like Phoenix or Dante if they were planned. As an avid Rayman defender, I can't say they are 100% out but the timing of it all just makes this case feel different and I can't really see a Capcom character happening anymore
• Lloyd/Any Namco rep- Yeah yeah, Lloyd has managed to avoid getting costumed for so long but I doubt it will last. Just look at how Geno turned out. I believe Lloyd will just fall to the same fate. It really just feels like that one meme of the Grim reaper knocking at his door after having slaugthered his neighbors. With the Heihachi and Gil costumes also appearing earlier in seperate waves, it seems like Namco in general is toast and that they'll legit only have Pacman.
• Anyone owned by Square or Microsoft- Kinda agreed upon by most people that certain companies won't get multiple characters in one pass for the sake of fairness and diversiveness, except for Nintendo of course. Not everybody may subscribe to that but I view it that if Steve and Sephiroth are in then Master Chief, Neku and 2B are out.

Actual predictions start here. Will throw these characters to the wall and see which ones will stick.

• Arle- Puyo Puyo has legacy on it's side, is huge in the east and has gained quite some momentum in the west thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris. That game and and it's sequel have both been promoted by Nintendo in Directs/presentations and are generally treated as bigger third-party announcements. They seem to love the series so much they put a untranslated Puyo Puyo Super Famicom game on the western SNES online instead of its localized Kirby counterpart which still seems a little strange. Other things in her favor include a fair amount of fan demand back in Smash 4, fairly little competition from other SEGA candidates and likely having somre pretty unique potential for a playstyle.
• Crash/Hayabusa- Putting these two together cause everybody seems to do so and they are just in pretty similar positions. Both of them just seem to have about everything in their favor. They're iconic. They have legacy, relevancy, popularity, are mascots from unrepped third-parties and they've been getting alot of attention by Nintendo recently. I disagree that they are locks but I can absolutely understand why so many are fixed on these two.
• Sol- Arc System has developped some of the most highly praised fighting games out there and I could see Nintendo/Sakurai wanting to reward them for that. Sol, being their main guy, could then easily be next in line for a traditional fighting game character. The newest Guilty Gear may not come to the Switch (for now) but could still make for a good cross promotion.
• Captain Toad/Waluigi- They're Mario characters. One has his own game and the other has rediculous fan demand. I barely have to explain myself here. If there's a first-party who can still compete with Bandana Waddle Dee, its probably one of these two. BTW I'm of the opinion that if an AT would recieve a upgrate that Waluigi would be the character they'd do that for.
• The human/Frisk- Maybe, I'm just in a Undertale mood at the moment but I can imagine Nintendo looking at how big that game has become and watching the insane reception to the Sans costume reveal and think "You know, this can have potential" and request a actual Challenger pack. The timing would be pretty tight considering that costume reveal coincided with the reveal of DLC past Volume 1 but I think the possibility is there. Especially taking into account the game still not having Spirits yet Cuphead having them which seems kinda suspicious.

That kinda settles it. I'm keeping my eye on this list of characters:
-Arle Nadja
-Bandana Waddle Dee
-Captain Toad
-Crash Bandicoot
-The Human (Undertale)
-The Knight (Hollow Knight)
-Rayman
-Ryu Hayabusa
-Sol Badguy
-Waluigi

Skullgirls rep xThe amount of noms this post is worth

Not commenting on the actual content of your post, but can you please explain your color coding system? I can't make sense of it at all! Why do Arle/Hayabusa and Sol/Toad share the same colors?!

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Pyra/Mythra Satisfaction pre-Remaining FP2 predictions

Worms x330
Excitebiker x320
Agent 47 x305
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x290
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x260
Zagreus x260

300 - 251

Concept: Far Cry rep x254

250 - 201

Billy & Jimmy Lee x245
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x212
Tetra x205
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x195
Rallen (Spectrobes) x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Concept: Disgaea rep x165

150 - 101

Concept: Skullgirls rep x144
Riptor x140
Boss: Rayquaza x140
Senator Armstrong x140
Estelle Bright x140
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Trevor Philips x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
Concept: From Software rep x105
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
Ryza (Atelier) x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Beatrice (Umineko) x50
[Rerate] Louie x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Garchomp x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Bill Rizer x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Demi-Fiend x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Meat Boy x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Gunvolt x5
Octoling x5
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5
Firebrand x1

Zagreus joins the top seven, taking Far Cry rep out and tying with Curly as Quote's alt/Echo for sixth place.

Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo presents 200 noms.

Disgaea rep crosses 150 noms.

Grunty and From Software rep conjure over 100 noms each.

Zhao Yun conquers the 50 nom border.

Garchomp chomps his way out of the under 25 club.

Today's newcomers are rerates of Concept: Echo Fighters Pass (10 noms) and Crash Bandicoot (5 noms).

For all we know, the next character will be the stick man from Good Job

I see you're a man of culture as well

Not commenting on the actual content of your post, but can you please explain your color coding system? I can't make sense of it at all! Why do Arle/Hayabusa and Sol/Toad share the same colors?!

I think it's just because those are the characters' dominant colors. Arle and Hayabusa wear blue, Sol wears red and Toad has red spots.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Predictions huh?

That's a hard one. We've had the two most obvious picks for Smash Ultimate's base that were missing readded in a Xenoblade 2 and ARMS character now although neither were who the character most were expecting.

I'm not feeling too good in terms of first party now, but I may as well go out in a blaze of bias glory and back my boy Captain Toad.

Before Ultimate's base was revealed, Captain Toad was seen as a front runner due to Treasure Tracker's success of passing 1 million copies on both Wii U and Switch. Not bad for his first solo outing.
I believe the Switch version has some reports of nearing that 2 million which puts it in (almost) the same ballpark as Xenoblade and ARMS.
Since those games got a promotional boost, and with 3D World + Bowser's Fury releasing with his parts of the game being altered to include 4 player co-op, Captain Toad does seem to be a character Nintendo does like to push.

Ayumi and another Pokémon, notably one of the starter trio from Legends are admittedly very late game here but I can believe Sakurai was given a heads up about the former, and likely reserved another Pokémon spot for Sword and Shield.
With that I guess Decidueye is back on the table...as are Samurott and Typhlosion alongside Cinderace whom I'm not quite willing to write off yet.

So first party wise:
Captain Toad, Ayumi, Decidueye/Samurott/Typhlosion/Cinderace(and their pre-evolutions) are my guesses. If Waluigi wasn't an assist I'd put him up here too but I think assists are a death sentence.

Third Party wise is a lot harder:
Yuri Lowell is probably the most likely Namco rep in my eyes as Lloyd isn't anywhere near his popularity in the Tales fanbase and I can't see him being the one third party Mii to jump to playable after Monster Hunter, Heihachi and Geno all failed.

I'm also not ruling out Chosen Undead for Namco as Dark Souls has been an absolute industry changer in the past decade. Couple that with it getting an Amiibo before and it's not that wild to me to envision Namco pushing Chosen Undead forward.

I desperately want to say Agumon has a shot but I cannot envision it as cool as it would be. He and Katamari's Prince of the Cosmos are my personal Namco wants but I can't see either happening... maybe a Mii outfit for the Prince.

Capcom I had faith in getting someone but Monster Hunter and Arthur got deconfirmed in the last set of Mii outfits, so unless they go weird and use Palico for MH, it's safe to say they're out.
Resident Evil was my personal choice as I've become a big fan over the past year but the most obvious characters were all spirited away early on.
So my Capcom pick for now is Phoenix Wright who has always been popular in Smash's fandom despite being a relatively niche genre.

Obviously you have Hayabusa, but I'm going to go bold with this and throw out Dead or Alive's Kasumi too. She's less provocative than Mai at least and at worst on par with Pyra and Mythra.

Lu Bu would actually be my Koei Tecmo character of choice(outside either Hyrule Warriors Impa) but due to his status as a game character based on a book, based on real life events with real life people, I'm unsure if he fits the video game characters only rule.

And lastly, obligatory Crash Bandicoot. I'm no where near as confident as I was when the pass started up, but Crash has been making a resurgence of recent.

So my third party picks are:
Yuri Lowell, Chosen Undead, Phoenix Wright, Kasumi and then the standard Ryu Hayabusa and Crash Bandicoot combo.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

 

[chocolatejr9]

View attachment 306498


I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

I'm actually surprised people are STILL going for those two, to be honest. Like, I get why, but... this late in the Pass? In my opinion, only one of them has a chance, and that's as Fighter 10. After that, the obligoratory "Nintendo thought they could get away with this" pick, which is something else I'm surprised about, except for the opposite reason: almost nobody seems to think this.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm actually surprised people are STILL going for those two, to be honest. Like, I get why, but... this late in the Pass? In my opinion, only one of them has a chance, and that's as Fighter 10. After that, the obligoratory "Nintendo thought they could get away with this" pick, which is something else I'm surprised about, except for the opposite reason: almost nobody seems to think this.

I mean, Hayabusa being seen as a big deal is relatively recent. Honestly, you could easily argue he is a smaller third party in the grand scheme of things. I personally am expecting one "E3" big pick and one smaller third party.

 

[SharkLord]

View attachment 306498


I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

Yeah, these two are pretty much the Big Two of Smash spec. Monster Hunter joined them for a little while, but they're dead now. I think it has to do with the mindset people approach them with. The two just don't have many drawbacks, so they're considered safe. When people go for accuracy, they go for the safer characters, since there's less risk involved. As a result, Crash and Hayabusa just get a lot of attention.

Personally, though, lack of risk doesn't really convince me when a large portion of the DLC so far has been considered risky; Too new, too Japan-centric. too small, etc. The only characters who can really be considered safe at the time of their release are Steve and Pyra, and even then the latter screwed with expectations due to the removal of Rex.

And honestly, I think Hayabusa's perceived chances got a little inflated by the rumors. Not saying all of his predictions come from there, that's ridiculous and unfair to his supporters, but from where I can see, he's not really in a unique situation. There's more NES all-stars than just him, and while Koei-Tecmo has a close relationship with Nintendo to the point that they make games for them, so does Ubisoft, and Bamco (Granted, they still get a lot of predictions anyways), and probably a couple more.

Really, both of them don't have a proper "hook," so to speak that makes me think "Yeah, it's them." Admittedly, a lot of the time that hook is just personal bias, so chances are that just reflects my interests more than anything.

 

[Commander_Alph]

View attachment 306498


I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

I'm just waiting for this to either aged like fine wine or like a spoiled milk, I'll go with the spoiled milk because they're basically Geno's successor (a character that people predict 24/7 to be a lock only to get "robbed" and we all know how many times that happened)

 

[SharkLord]

I'm just waiting for this to either aged like fine wine or like a spoiled milk, I'll go with the spoiled milk because they're basically Geno's successor (a character that people predict 24/7 to be a lock only to get "robbed" and we all know how many times that happened)

To be fair, Geno was divisive as all %$#@. I've seen one comparison to Dante and Doomguy, and I think that's more accurate; They have a lot going for them and are pushed as frontrunners, but ultimately aren't the ones and start to peter off. Crash, in particular, gives me strong Doomguy vibes; A big Western character who were icons back in the day, laid low for a while, and had a resurgence in recent years, aided by close connections to Nintendo.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm just waiting for this to either aged like fine wine or like a spoiled milk, I'll go with the spoiled milk because they're basically Geno's successor (a character that people predict 24/7 to be a lock only to get "robbed" and we all know how many times that happened)

No one predicted Geno as a lock lol. Most people outside genos diehard fan base were skeptical of him for a long time. Even here, a lot of his scores were inflated a bit when his fans came, and would get lower marks as a whole. Heck, if you asked me in November I would be pushing Neku as the next square rep and saying people were sleeping on Sephiroth.

 

[Commander_Alph]

No one predicted Geno as a lock lol. Most people outside genos diehard fan base were skeptical of him for a long time. Even here, a lot of his scores were inflated a bit when his fans came, and would get lower marks as a whole. Heck, if you asked me in November I would be pushing Neku as the next square rep and saying people were sleeping on Sephiroth.

Heh that's a bit weird, because if we look outside Smashboards from Smashtuber to Top Player they all expecting Geno based on "realisticness" usually coupled with other character who has strong evidence but that's just my nitpick.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Heh that's a bit weird, because if we look outside Smashboards from Smashtuber to Top Player they all expecting Geno based on "realisticness" usually coupled with other character who has strong evidence but that's just my nitpick.

Eh, realistic picks are only realistic in hindsight. Right, insert Ultimate newcomer here?

 

[Louie G.]

Alright, well off the bat I want to acknowledge (and mourn) that I personally see Capcom as out of the running. Seeing a character from this company was something I was very confident in and something that I really really wanted to see, so acknowledging how they finally blew their remaining costumes and even added a brand new one... my faith is no longer quite as strong. This definitely shook up my predictions since both Monster Hunter and Chun-Li were regular suspects among my most anticipated characters. Definitely a heavy blow as I've now lost my faith in pretty much everyone I genuinely wanted.

Seeing how much things were lining up for Monster Hunter and how that was immediately rendered completely and uneventfully void with the return of their Mii Costumes to promote Rise - probably why it took so long to begin with - it definitely sends an important message. We know nothing. Even if things feel so extremely safe and everything adds up for a character, there's always the chance that it just doesn't matter. So everything should be taken with a grain of salt, and now more than ever I'm not that confident in anything.

But hey, that won't stop me from trying. It's fun to try and solve the puzzle, even if we're wrong more often than we're right. So here's another crack at it.
----

Just like I've seen some other people do, I've pretty much been able to sum up my expectations into two general categories. I'll pick a frontrunner from those categories and some runner-ups worth keeping an eye on. With only two characters left this is about the most confidently I can narrow things down.

The first category is a "Big in the West" Third-Party. This kinda relies on whether or not Nintendo is even going to participate in E3 this year, but I imagine Nintendo's big announcements for the year will be dropping around this point anyway. In any case, if they have a character like this in store, this coming June would probably be the ideal time to drop it as they have with several other characters who are tremendously popular in the west before (Mega Man, Ridley, Banjo & Kazooie...)

Of course I should acknowledge that if they simply don't have any more characters like this to reveal then we can probably just get... whoever, really. Smash reveals are a big enough deal regardless of who they are. But around this time of the year is when all eyes will be on Nintendo and they'll probably really want to grab people's attention - and I do think we've probably got one heavy hitter left. So my top pick is:

Challenger Pack 10 - MASTER CHIEF - Gotta take some chances at this point, right? Microsoft has two characters already, one of which was already in this pass... but does it matter? I've yet to hear a really convincing argument about why the "one per company" rule should be taken as gospel, to be honest. I say this as someone who bought into it before, but at this point I've reasoned with myself about it. Why would you pass up on Halo just because you have... Minecraft? These games, their influences and their potential audiences are incredibly different. So I say we look at each character in their own vacuum.

Master Chief is a titan. Halo is one of the most significant gaming franchises... ever, revolutionizing the FPS genre (which is currently untapped in Smash) and cementing Master Chief himself as the face. Not huge in Japan, but I think the nature of just HOW huge he is in the west pretty much negates that - and even so, I'd imagine the Halo brand is big enough for passing notoriety. Halo has had figures, a short anime and was recently on the cover of Famitsu alongside other hot releases. Nintendo and Microsoft have a great working relationship and Halo is as relevant as ever with a brand new game on the horizon. In all fairness, there isn't much else to justify this mindset aside from "it's ****ing Master Chief", which I feel is as good a reason as any to keep him on your radar. In the realm of western picks, if we get another one I say go big or go home. Chief would be an astounding final mega "hype" pick and I think we're due for one more big surprise that really catches people off guard.

HM - CRASH BANDICOOT - Worth at least a passing mention is the frequently speculated and ever-popular Crash, the one that most people would suggest as our next western character. And for good enough reason, Crash has seen quite the successful revival lately and still carries with him a great deal of significance as the honorary mascot of the PS1. And he's popular worldwide, to boot. Crash has been discussed ad-nauseum so I feel like there isn't all that much else I can say about him. And honestly, I don't think he has a whole lot going for him directly. He's just popular and significant enough to stay on the radar. A decent enough shot - and that's a lot better than I gave him credit for last time, I'm coming around a bit. I saw him place top 10 in a Japanese fan poll recently and that subsided a lot of doubt I had about how much they care about Crash over there.

HM - CHOSEN UNDEAD / SOLAIRE - In the back of my mind always rests the possibility of seeing Dark Souls content, the series that I personally feel is the next step for Namco. Dark Souls is probably one of the most important games / series to have come out over the last decade, effectively creating a genre unto itself and reaching massive success that has already matched some of Namco's most successful series of over twenty years in half the time. I don't personally believe that we'll see any more Namco content based on the way their costumes have been released, but I feel like Dark Souls is at least detached far enough from those other series for a case to be made (seeing how it's a From Software property owned by Namco). Not counting on it right now but I am always thinking about it. At the very least it deserves more discussion.
---

The second half to my expectations is a Small Third-Party, not super groundbreaking and people probably won't be losing their minds over it... but not every character has to be. People are anticipating we end on a first-party, but I'm generally imagining more of a Bayonetta situation (just without the ballot). This last character will probably be of similar standing to Terry, just probably not as completely unexpected.

Challenger Pack 11 - RYU HAYABUSA - Creative, I know. What can I say? My explanation is pretty simple, and it's nothing you haven't heard before. Koei Tecmo is bar none the most significant business partner that Nintendo has left without a playable character, and their content is remarkably skim for a company with such a prominent role. We do technically have Koei Tecmo content in Smash... but nothing of their own. All of it is co-productions with Nintendo like the Fatal Frame AT and the Age of Calamity spirits, so I hesitate to count those. It's pretty odd that everything related to KT has some asterisk attached.

Beyond this, Ninja Gaiden is one of the most notable classic NES franchises to lack representation in Smash. Its hack n slash reboot games are also well-loved and are now getting ported over to Switch (bonus points!). And within his company, his significance is undefeated as he's essentially KT's Terry and crosses over with a variety of his sister series such as Samurai Warriors and (frequently) Dead or Alive. He's got the repertoire, the business sense, he's even "relevant" on account of the Sigma Trilogy. There isn't much you can hold against the guy.

Should be mentioned though, things seemed to line up pretty great for Monster Hunter before they got Mii'd. I definitely proceed with caution when putting heavy stock in someone else like Hayabusa who seems to have so much going for him, since we've been fooled before. But I think Hayabusa might be a bit different. Nothing wrong with sticking to your guns, and nothing significant has come up to make me doubt how much sense additional content from Koei Tecmo makes. So Hayabusa remains the frontrunner, in my eyes. If nothing else I imagine he'll be in the game in some capacity.

HM - ARLE NADJA - Oh Arle. I want to be more confident, but a lot of my faith in Arle has subsided since last time. Still, I think she makes sense and is IMO the most obvious next in line for Sega - which as it stands isn't out of the picture yet. Puyo Puyo is a major deal in Japan, surpassing even Sonic in brand recognition over there and going toe to toe with Street Fighter 2 in arcades back in the 90s. It is a foundational part of the puzzle game genre, which has barely anything in Smash as it stands. Puyo has a significant presence on Switch (and PPT2 released very recently), it has been on every single Nintendo console minus the Virtual Boy and Nintendo themselves have gotten involved with attempting to localize the series way back when through Kirby's Avalanche.

So Arle certainly has the clout to join Smash. Will she do it? I sure hope so, but for now I'm keeping my expectations low. Still worth acknowledging.

HM - SOL BADGUY - I also want to give a nod to Guilty Gear's own Sol Badguy, who would likely be among one of the smallest third parties to join the roster. But his series has been growing as of late and doing a fair bit of crossing over too -a Guilty Gear character was just confirmed to be coming to Samurai Shodown, I feel like they're going to be generous with lending their characters to other games and promoting the series further. Guilty Gear's popularity is on the rise, and a new entry is coming out soon. The main reason I think Sol is worth acknowledging is because of that random River City Ransom spirit event last year, the only bit of ArcSys content in the game right now. That could genuinely just be it for them, but I think ArcSys is a notable enough developer to keep on the radar, being one of the leading forces in the fighting game genre.

HM - OCTOLING - Last but not least - let's just say Nintendo does end up adding another one of their own characters. I'm not convinced they will, but if they did I feel like additional Splatoon content is being slept on. Splatoon 3 has just been confirmed and Splatoon is frequently propped up alongside Nintendo's absolute biggest franchises. Taking a look at Smash's representation for the series, it's actually pretty light - and a lot of the new content from Splatoon 2 goes unrepresented. I believe Octoling has the potential to pick up the slack on the Splatoon 2 content that came too late to have any significant impact on Smash, such as the new weapons and their own DLC expansion, and pave the way for the future of Splatoon and the Switch in general. Just a weird shot in the dark pick to cover the possibility.

NOMINATONS:
Billy & Jimmy Lee x20
Demi-Fiend x20

 

[SharkLord]

HM - OCTOLING - Last but not least - let's just say Nintendo does end up adding another one of their own characters. I'm not convinced they will, but if they did I feel like additional Splatoon content is being slept on. Splatoon 3 has just been confirmed and Splatoon is frequently propped up alongside Nintendo's absolute biggest franchises. Taking a look at Smash's representation for the series, it's actually pretty light - and a lot of the new content from Splatoon 2 goes unrepresented. I believe Octoling has the potential to pick up the slack on the Splatoon 2 content that came too late to have any significant impact on Smash, such as the new weapons and their own DLC expansion, and pave the way for the future of Splatoon and the Switch in general. Just a weird shot in the dark pick to cover the possibility.

I think the reason for the lack of Octoling talk is the Squid Sister Miis back in Min Min's wave. Generally, all the content from a series releases at the same time; All the Persona Miis came with Joker, all the Dragon Quest Miis came with Hero, all the Minecraft Miis came with Steve, etc. The only exception were the Rex Mii, which came out on the day of release anyways, and the Sophie Spirit, which was a quick little promotional thing for a game that released after Joker's DLC. And that mentality makes sense; If you're representing a game with a big DLC pack, you'd want to focus all the content from it in one place rather than spreading it out. If it's strewn all over it defeats the purpose of a big content pack.

As such, I doubt we'd be seeing a big Splatoon pack. If there was one in the pipeline, I think they would've released all the Splatoon Miis with it. But instead, they released them with someone from a different series, which suggests there isn't any big Splatoon pack to focus the content around.

 

[Louie G.]

I think the reason for the lack of Octoling talk is the Squid Sister Miis back in Min Min's wave. Generally, all the content from a series releases at the same time; All the Persona Miis came with Joker, all the Dragon Quest Miis came with Hero, all the Minecraft Miis came with Steve, etc. The only exception were the Rex Mii, which came out on the day of release anyways, and the Sophie Spirit, which was a quick little promotional thing for a game that released after Joker's DLC. And that mentality makes sense; If you're representing a game with a big DLC pack, you'd want to focus all the content from it in one place rather than spreading it out. If it's strewn all over it defeats the purpose of a big content pack.

As such, I doubt we'd be seeing a big Splatoon pack. If there was one in the pipeline, I think they would've released all the Splatoon Miis with it. But instead, they released them with someone from a different series, which suggests there isn't any big Splatoon pack to focus the content around.

I think this is a strong argument against Octoling, but my justification is simply that I believe they'd be a bit more lenient with how they release in-house Nintendo content as opposed to third-party costumes. But I do see where you're coming from and I don't entirely disagree, there's definitely some skepticism there on my end too.

Regardless, I don't even particularly think we're getting another Nintendo character. Octoling is just a possibility that I think has a little more substance and is a bit more interesting than most of the other ones I've seen, so they're my "what-if".

 

[Gorgonzales]

Crash is the one guy that everyone always predicts will be DLC and that's exactly why he's not going to happen.

Nintendo are the kings of left-field, after all.

 

[Golden Icarus]

View attachment 306498


I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

Really though, guilty as charged! To be fair, I’ve been guessing at Hayabusa ever since FP1. And of my original FP2 predictions, most of them have either been confirmed (Min Min and Steve), or don’t seem as likely as they used to (Lloyd and Phoenix), while both Crash and Hayabusa have only seemed like safer and safer picks as time’s passed. While following the crowd is kinda lame, the arguments for Crash and Hayabusa are really strong.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Crash is the one guy that everyone always predicts will be DLC and that's exactly why he's not going to happen.

Nintendo are the kings of left-field, after all.

This guy gets it.

 

[fogbadge]

View attachment 306498


I made this before the day started and I am surprised it did not come exactly true, but a lot of people are still predicting the two big boys.

may i share my two cents on this subject? well two pence in my case.
i feel crash's chances have been inflated greatly and theres not really anything that gives him an edge over all the other 3rd party characters. the idea that nintendo may want to capitalize on his recent resurgence in popularity is sound but there are a lot of other 3rd party's popularity they may wish to capitalize. even then our last character reveal has convinced me that popularity doesnt matter as much as we think. between the struggle ridley and k.rool had to get in and other popular characters like isaac still not in and of course the instances of of sakurai choosing characters of his own preference over the popular choices, inceneroar and pyra/mythra. i also dont know why everyone brings up the ports as an argument in his favour as that has never been a reason for characters inclusion and why the GC nor GBA games don’t count. so i doubt either will help not the remaster nore the long awaited 8th game which is called number 4 because i assume the company is now run by people whod like to pretend the other games didnt exisit even though the actual number 4 had more in common with the games they loved than the ones that followed. and i also feel that theres a few people who are predicting him because everyone else is predicting him. i would say all this puts him on the same level as all the other 3rd parties and even then theres probably a few who have a bigger edge over him. so while reasonable for him to be predicted a fair amount but not to this level.

by the way have we ever rated a second yoshi character?

Crash is the one guy that everyone always predicts will be DLC and that's exactly why he's not going to happen.

Nintendo are the kings of left-field, after all.

surely the left field pick would be spyro instead of crash?

 

[Commander_Alph]

i also dont know why everyone brings up the ports as an argument in his favour as that has never been a reason for characters inclusion.

Might be because Nintendo fans only instance or familiarity of Crash is "that one Sony owned character who is one of the third horseman of console mascot" which is understandable because Naughty Dog (who previously owned the series in it's early days) is "too loyal" to Sony is what I might say and considering they made the trilogy, which is the most iconic entry in the series, was released only on Playstation despite the series have been dipping into several Nintendo console in the past after they switch ownership. It's kinda like how Cloud's debut game is only released on Playstation console (back in the day) and basically the entry that many people know which literally overshadowed the previous 6 game in which was, unironically released on the NES and SNES.

 

[Flyboy]

Might be because Nintendo fans only instance or familiarity of Crash is "that one Sony owned character who is one of the third horseman of console mascot" which is understandable because Naughty Dog (who previously owned the series in it's early days) is "too loyal" to Sony is what I might say and considering they made the trilogy, which is the most iconic entry in the series, was released only on Playstation despite the series have been dipping into several Nintendo console in the past after they switch ownership. It's kinda like how Cloud's debut game is only released on Playstation console (atm) and basically the entry that many people know which literally overshadowed the previous 6 game in which was, unironically released on the NES and SNES.

Final Fantasy 7 has been available on Switch for years now, for the record.