Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Inue Houji]

Pyra/Mythra presentation satisfaction
I'd say about 25%.
It could have been even lower, but the fact that Lloyd didn't get Mii'd ticks it up a few notches.

As for the presentation's subject, their gameplay seemed pretty bog standard. Their only saving grace is their specials.
Pyra's F-smash looks stupidly powerful for how fast it seems to be, but we'll see how it plays out.
Their normals are pretty much the Fire Emblem standard, with an added Palu nair. Their side specials and neutral specials look interesting, and so does Mythra's up special.
The stage looks good, but has a pretty boring layout.

As for the Mii's, Lloyd not being one is a plus, as previously stated.
Monster Hunter Mii's are okay by me, and I can pretend Byleth is a Monster Hunter if I really want. The Felyne looks silly, but it's there for those who want it.
The Arthur Mii is cool, Ghosts n' Goblins getting some representation is nice, and I didn't expect him to make it as a fighter anyway.
No Elma costume could be a good thing, but they probably just forgot about the game :/

No FP3 is pretty much confirmed at this point, but I'll give it one more chance before I write it off completely.


Predictions
Henry Stickmin: 0.5%

Nominations
Rallen x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Satisfaction rating: 20%

• Pyra and Mythra turned out to be a stance fighter, and not two fighters in one. So I feel like I was lied to.
• The moveset overall feels really uninspired, I'm not one to complain about swordfighters but all of their moves save for the specials look cookie-cutter and like nothing new. I'm not getting a unified vibe like with Sephiroth or Hero.
• Rex missed the cut because of technical limitations. That I actually can believe. But between calling him the protagonist of the game, and making a big deal about all his appearances, I have to wonder why it wasn't solo Rex with Pythra cameos instead of solo Pythra with Rex cameos. It's not like they really made an exciting and unique moveset that just couldn't have happened if they'd gone with Rex, and he could be a stance fighter too.
• Chorus Kids were considered for Smash 4 and were probably cut for software limitations, instead of including a watered-down version of the concept. They should've done the same here imo
• It's clear that 8-player Smash should be cut if it's such a burden on development. Nintendo won't make a powerful console anytime soon.
• It's also clear, between the technical limitations and Sakurai's complaints about swordfighters, that his role in choosing characters effectively boils down to telling Nintendo whether a moveset could be made and has no input on aspects such as variety, uniqueness and reception. I doubt there are any rejected characters.
• The stage looks alright, visually it leaves a lot to be desired and I think with a concept such as flying by giant inhabited titans they could have been a lot more cinematic, gotten a lot closer, think Yggdrassil's Altar. Gramps potentially killing people is fun, as is the fact that Sakurai didn't want to squish him into omega forms.
• Sakurai talking candidly about the state of emergency and how it's affected him professionally and personally was pretty refreshing.
• No classic mode! Good, I like to experience them myself. I hope this is the way to go moving forward.
• Damn Sakurai almost lost that Squad Strike lol
• I never wanted to see Sakurai pick a waifu but here we are
• A pretty pitiful attempt to be spoiler-adverse. Nia I'd say was handled alright but they showed (and said) way too much about Pneuma and did they really have to mention Rex's Master Driver form so explicitly?
• Monster Hunter's rasputinian death finally came to a conclusion. Can't say this was unexpected but I thought it would be later. And damn those are three costumes what the hell.
• Arthur?! That, I didn't expect. It was nice to see him in Smash but I don't think he's the best fit as a Mii Costume. Without his odd movement or a damage-to-underwear gimmick he's just a generic knight. I wish he'd come with a song.
• I've seen a lot of people say that Capcom is dead because of this, but I don't see it. It's clear that we got these costumes right now because they're from recent/upcoming games that are temporary Switch exclusives and therefore in Nintendo's best interest to promote. I still think we could get Chun-Li or Phoenix. However that still doesn't mean we'll get them, and in particular I'd look out for Ace Attorney Mii Costumes if the next fighter releases around TGAA's leaked release date of July.
• Only 4 costumes? That's odd. You'd think being a first party fighter they could get more.
• Lloyd is alive... for now. I guess it helps because we can think about what character he'd come with, but he's still as good as dead.
• "There are two characters left so there's only two more chances to have these showcases" Between that, the surprisingly low amount of Mii Costumes, and everything else we've heard so far, a third Pass is as good as disconfirmed.

All in all this presentation failed to convince me that Pyra & Mythra were good additions to the roster. I'll still buy them, probably tomorrow, play a bit, see how I enjoy their playstyle, but either way I doubt that it'll be enough to turn me to their side. Speculation-wise, aside from Monster Hunter and Arthur being killed off for good, not much has changed since their reveals. I'm still expecting small third parties and first parties to fill the last two slots, and I'm surprised (and a bit disappointed) by how the community manages to keep hanging on to the same "frontrunners" after getting blindsided over and over and getting to the point where they really wouldn't make any sense.

This is just a hunch, but I think the community should steel themselves for the last 2 fighters to be first party. Whatever that entails.

Noms go to Agent 47

 

[SharkLord]

• Pyra and Mythra turned out to be a stance fighter, and not two fighters in one. So I feel like I was lied to.

Didn't we already know this, though? The ability to switch between them freely was shown pretty prominently in the trailer. We saw gameplay clips, the victory screen, and the trailer itself. I was under the impression that their main draw was being a stance fighter, which would still make them two fighters in one anyways.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Didn't we already know this, though? The ability to switch between them freely was shown pretty prominently in the trailer. We saw gameplay clips, the victory screen, and the trailer itself. I was under the impression that their main draw was being a stance fighter, which would still make them two fighters in one anyways.

We were shown them switching and we were told they warranted having two separate fighter numbers. That indicated something more along the lines of Zelda/Sheik or Pokemon Trainer.

As they are they're either glorified Echoes or basically Shulk with changing specials. Hardly two unique fighters.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Pyra Satisfaction: 90%

Look, I'm just happy XC2 is finally getting the respect it deserves. I can understand why they didn't add Rex, I guess he just had a specific vision for how he'd play. Hopefully next Smash he'll get that chance. The stage is nice, very good representation of XC2, though I doubt it'll be tournament legal. Also, signal the death of the Monster Hunter! And potentially all of Capcom. Seriously, did NOT expect them to dedicate an entire Mii Costume wave to killing a single company. Now all we need is Lloyd's blo-AHEM, I MEAN costume to come back.

On a somewhat-related note, and this might be a spoiler for our updated predictions day, but I actually DON'T think Pyra will be the last first party. This is Nintendo we're talking about. They are physically incapable of ending Smash speculation on a high note...

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep xhowever many I got from this.

 

[GoodGrief741]

To clarify (because I've been confused by this more times than I'd like to admit), predictions and reactions days means 10 nominations free for everyone who participates. It's too late to change your nominations for yesterday (because I've already counted them, heh) but if you just gave 5 for today, you should change that!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Pyra (and Mythra) Presentation Predictions pre-Pyra/Mythra Satisfaction

Worms x330
Excitebiker x315
Agent 47 x295
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x280
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x250
Concept: Far Cry rep x244

250 - 201

Zagreus x240
Billy & Jimmy Lee x235
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x212
Tetra x205

200 - 151

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x200
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x185
Rallen (Spectrobes) x170
Kaede Akamatsu x160

150 - 101

Concept: Disgaea rep x145
Riptor x140
Boss: Rayquaza x140
Senator Armstrong x140
Concept: Skullgirls rep x139
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Trevor Philips x135
Estelle Bright x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: From Software rep x100
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x95
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Ryza (Atelier) x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Zhao Yun x50
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Louie x40
Beatrice (Umineko) x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Demi-Fiend x25
Bill Rizer x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Arthur x10
Meat Boy x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Garchomp x5
Gunvolt x5
Octoling x5
Firebrand x1

The Worms conquer the top seven! Looks like this wasn't Excitebiker's race. Concept: Far Cry rep stealthily takes Zagreus' spot; there's like 3 characters and concepts within striking range of the top seven, so this should be an interesting week.

Bill Rizer shoots his way to 25 noms. (Or maybe he just used the Konami Code)

Octoling splats into the fray! With 5 noms.

Perkilator You nominated Arthur yesterday, I'll be generous and let you change that.

 

[SharkLord]

Been a while since I've been here; Am I allowed to go back and add some noms to my post?

 

[Deleted member]

90%
My main gripe about the presentation is that I expected Sakurai to present the Xenoblade series as a whole like he did for , , and , as well as throwing a few additional nods to how it shares several themes with Tetsuya Takahashi's other works, Xenogears and Xenosaga.

The reasons behind Rex's exclusion were to be expected, and while he could have offered a more diverse moveset by using other weapons than the Aegis's Sword, playing as the poster girls who were barely playable in the first place (minus TTGC) instead appeared to be more appealing in the end.

The stage looks prettier than I expected. Not much to add here, except that I like how imaginative they went for the BF and FD versions.

The song selection is indecently good, with The Power of Jin being the sole noticeable absence. What I do fear though is that the other 3 XC2 songs won't get patched and still will play at a lower volume than usual.

Finishing the video with 4 Capcom-themed Mii Costumes was an odd touch, as well as no KOS-MOS costume.


Overall, a solid presentation, and definitively happy that Xenoblade 2, and Monolith Soft by extension, get the justice they deserve.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Time for another round of everyone's (un)favorite game!

Confirmed

Nothing lol

Disconfirmed

Monster Hunter
I. 31.06% - 46.21%
II. 12.21% - 31.88%
III. 10.75% - 37.33%
IV. 40.83% - 53.24%
V. 31.55% - 43.00%

Lora (she's a Spirit now)
5.01% Chance - 45.63% Want

Palico
8.18% Chance - 16.88% Want (damn I guess y'all are happy)

Arthur
4.15% Chance - 56.47%
10 noms

Worth looking at

Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party (35.27% - 53.26%)
Against all odds and expectations we're 3-2 with 2 fighters left. It'll probably go down to the wire but if there's one more Nintendo character this will be confirmed.

The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) (70.38% - 47.93%)
Y'all called it as likely and it looks like you will be vindicated. Only Lloyd stands between this and victory.

Third Fighter Pass (20.36% - 79.96%)
This has a high want score so I'm sure it stung when Sakurai remarked that there's only two characters left. It's not definitive enough to crush the hopes of everyone, but I imagine this would have a much lower chance score if rerated.

Capcom in general
Today's surprising all-Capcom Mii Costume batch is sure to incite strong opinions. This will probably the defining effect of today's presentation.

 

[NintenZ]

I've been refraining from straight predictions but I'll post my thoughts:

-Was disappointed Sakurai was presenting from home cause it's more fun in the office but that really was a matter out of control so this isn't really anything against the presentation itself
-Wish Sakurai could've gone into more detail about the entire Xeno meta series history but oh well what can you do, it's an incomprehensible mess as is so I can cut some slack there
-The stage looks pretty cool, love the Titans all appear and I love the stage cameos as well which have really nice animations accurate to the characters' original appearances
-Rex having to be cut because of hardware limitations is honestly the explanation I was expecting, wasn't really expecting anything less or anything more but it's interesting to think how the original idea was to have them be like the Ice Climbers and I'm wondering what the original moveset for the duo was like
-The moveset between Pyra and Mythra looks really good! I think having them be similar enough to each other but different in stats makes them really interesting, we don't really have a character like that that can swap on the fly and honestly I kinda prefer this to having totally unique characters be tied to one character since it helps streamline things and provides coherency, overall I think they look to be really interesting and while I can understand others wanting a bit more outside of sword moves, I think this looks to be a very interesting kit on it's own and am excited to try them for myself
-Their alts are good but I wish there was more references! Having more of the costumes based on other blades would be really nice, I'd honestly quite like if they went that route but I don't think the alts are too bad
-The music selection is pretty good overall, I wish Counterattack!! had the original version selectable and some songs from DE but overall it's not too bad and there's quite a variety of tracks available
-The Spirit selection is nice though it's disappointing more of the Blades weren't added, but hey they added Lora, Jin, and Malos so I can't really complain.
-Pretty hilariously awful job at hiding spoilers for the game lmfao. The worst thing they could've possibly done is say WHAT the spoilers they were trying to hide and describing them in full detail was and it was honestly pretty funny seeing them mess it up. Like that was pretty damn funny honestly.
-The costume selection is a mixed bag for me, I like how the costumes look (The Monster Hunter ones look MUCH better than they did in Smash 4), like they included a Palico hat, think this is a really smart cross-promotion for Rise without adding a playable character, and think that the Arthur costume is really nice, but at the same time... Only four...? Like where's more Xenoblade costumes like Morag and Zeke? Maybe KOS-MOS as a gunner? Hell even other Capcom choices would've made sense since Capcom Arcade Stadium recently came out, why not Captain Commando as a Brawler? Overall I think the costumes are good as is, but there really should be more honestly.
-I think the Capcom costumes are a hit towards a Capcom character getting in and now I don't know what to make of Chun-Li's chances who I previously considered a looming inevitability, though I do think they could still include other Street Fighter characters with her but I just don't know. If they were going to include a Capcom character, I don't see why they couldn't have held off the costumes for a later time to coincide with that, especially Arthur since Sakurai implied he was included as a coincidence without him knowing about the new Ghosts N Goblins game. Overall my confidence has dipped and I would be pleasantly surprised if one ended up happening.
-Sakurai not writing the CGI bits of Pyra and Mythra's trailer was actually legitimately surprising. Up until this point he'd written every single trailer and I expected this one to be the same. I guess it's no wonder it's the longest trailer in Smash history and is written just like a Xenoblade cutscene, because the original people (I'm assuming Tetsuya Takahashi) wrote the trailer instead. What do you know?
-Nothing on Amiibo was pretty surprising, would've at least expected Sakurai to acknowledge the new ones releasing this month but to my surprise... Nothing, how peculiar.
-It all releases today! I was thinking it'd release later on this month but having it all early is pretty nice and I look forward to trying them out soon!

Overall I think that it was a good presentation and I like what was included, I would've changed a few things here and there but honestly I'm satisfyed with how things are and don't have too many complaints, hopefully once I play the DLC it'll form my thoughts more!

Nominations:
Kaede Akamatsu (10x)

 

[Inue Houji]

My dog passed away on Tuesday, he was 15 years old at the time.

My condolences, that sucks. Losing a friend is tough.

 

[Louie G.]

Some notable thoughts from today...

- Pyra and Mythra are pretty much what I was expecting. And that's a good thing! They look fun, they've got some pretty interesting swordplay going on all things considered that set them apart from their contemporaries. I really like how flashy their specials are, Pyra with Blazing End and Mythra with Photon Edge - they feel like some of the most "anime" characters in the game, in a good way this time. Small little thing but I like their energy-based rapid jab too. I think I'll probably be playing Pyra more, on account of generally preferring characters with more power at the expense of their speed.

- Songlist is pretty much what I expected too, and we've got Mor Ardain and Torna Battle which were the two I thought absolutely needed to be there. The lack of Future Connected tracks is a bit of a bummer but not wholly unexpected. Same with X, which was even less expected. But Xeno 2's soundtrack is certainly good enough to carry itself. Very interested in what that "Tiger Tiger" remix is going to sound like lmao.

- The Capcom massacre was very disheartening for me. I know that people are holding onto some hope that it isn't the be-all-end-all for everything Capcom, but I am not feeling good about anyone else's chances - why drop a brand new Capcom costume with Pyra and acknowledge that it's all Capcom if there was more Capcom on the way? I'm a bit shellshocked that Monster Hunter seemed to have so much going for them and was nonchalantly dropped like this to promote Rise, but I suppose that's why it took so long to see them in the first place.

With that my remaining faith in pretty much the only other characters I sincerely wanted dies out - particularly Chun-Li and Morrigan, but I wanted pretty much anyone from Capcom. On the bright side, it makes speculation pretty interesting again... but that enjoyment is fleeting, of course. In the end I'll feel a little bit empty thinking about what could have been.

Or maybe I'll be proven wrong and I'll be really happy, I dunno. The Arthur costume is nice.

- It really sounds like these last two characters really are gonna be it, IMO. This pass is shaping up pretty nicely, but I'm still left hoping for something that feels a little bit more personal to me. I can appreciate these additions in their own right but it's been a while since a character really touched me. I'm beginning to accept that probably won't happen, but I still look forward to what's coming.

Overall Satisfaction: 70%, but I'm also sad.

Nom: Billy & Jimmy x10

 

[Inue Houji]

To clarify (because I've been confused by this more times than I'd like to admit), predictions and reactions days means 10 nominations free for everyone who participates.

Thanks, you're not the only one. Thought predictions+reactions counted as one day.

 

[Blankiturayman]

I was thinking about doing this later, after trying them out a bit, but since I have the time to, well why not?

Pyra and Mythra themselves look cool, I can see myself going back to them every now and then. It's a good thing they're releasing today as most were expecting, so I should be able to play around with them soon. Probably gonna do matches with Shulk because it's fitting. That said, the stage looks nice, I like all the details, even if the stage itself isn't the greatest thing in terms of gimmicks or layouts, it looks just fine.

Their alts are great, sure, there's not many party member references (as opposed to Shulk who went all in on those) but some do look like Xenogears and Xenosaga characters. The "Dark" pallette in particular definitely looks like Weltall, and the marine blue color looks a bit like KOS-MOS, although that may be stretching it, since their hair just remains the same. The last gold pallette reminded me of the Zohar, a prominent item through "Xeno". So overall it was neat.
On music, I wish there was a little more than just XC2 but eh I'll take it, seems like they focused on that either way. Going with this same train of thought, it looks like the pack near-fully focused on XC2 barring alts, as I was somewhat guessing, I was hoping for some more stuff but it is what it is.

Regarding Mii Costumes, sucks for the Monster Hunter, they weren't near the top of my wants or anything of the sort, but I'd have been alright with it. Though I guess after all this time, it could've just seemed like a matter of time. Palico was a surprise, and then Arthur was even more of a surprise. I'm pretty happy with that one because I wasn't expecting him to be playable, so it was cool to see him.

Really surprised there were 0 Xeno ones, guess we're remaining with Nia and Rex. I'm just a tad bummed this likely means no Capcom. Of course, this could go either way as Sakurai explicitly mentioned the reasoning behind the full Capcom wave was that MH Rise was coming out soon, so this could just be some promo and there's something coming later but I dunno. That said, Capcom's selection is huge so they'd have no issue picking out someone else. I still would like Phoenix if possible, Morrigan would be a cool choice as well. Even Chun-Li with all the mentioning was growing on me after a while.

Finally, gotta say that it does seem like FP2 is it so far, as it has been until now. I guess it's until the next character to say for sure, but still, things aren't looking good for more content, so this likely might just be it.

Overall Satisfaction: 80%

Nominations: Estelle Bright x10

 

[fogbadge]

To clarify (because I've been confused by this more times than I'd like to admit), predictions and reactions days means 10 nominations free for everyone who participates. It's too late to change your nominations for yesterday (because I've already counted them, heh) but if you just gave 5 for today, you should change that!

for each day or separately? either way i think ive got some left over

also whats the policy on changing our satifiaction percentage? cause if theres a remix by yoko shimomura i want give them some more

 

[jamesster445]

Pyra reactions
+ More Xenoblade content which is something I wanted.
- There are so many cool elements to XB2's battle system thanks to the Blade and Driver mechanics. But because we got a Pyra without Rex, the most interesting elements of a potential XB2 fighter are gone. What we got instead looks mechanically uninspired. Its surprisingly basic.
+/- Rex fans coming to terms that they never wanted Rex for himself or even XB2 mechanics but solely because booba.

• Theres more Xenoblade 2 content.
• Sakurai explains that the plan was to have Rex and Pyra/Mythra but found development issues. I can live with that.
• Pyra/Mythra look fun.

• Stage is questionable.
• We could've gotten more music. This isnt a 3rd party that has to deal with additional licensing. Nintendo owns Xenoblade.

 

[Inue Houji]

also whats the policy on changing our satisfaction percentage? cause if theres a remix by yoko shimomura i want give them some more

As long as the day isn't over yet, you can change it however much you want.

 

[Flyboy]

Pyra/Mythra Presentation

Satisfaction: 90%
So, I'm much more of a fan of Xenosaga and Xenogears (And Xenoblade Chronicles X) than I am of Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Going into this I know many of the major spoilers, have played various chunks of it and a large chunk of Torna, and was mostly hoping for things to make my Xenoblade-loving friends happy, myself happy based on my limited knowledge, and some Xenogears and Xenosaga references. I got all of that! I'll explain why I knocked 10% off in a moment, but generally speaking I was super satisfied with the presentation. Sakurai is just such a joy to listen to, with these presentations so full of love and character and such great jokes.

First off, Pyra and Mythra's moveset is awesome and the Cloud Sea stage is absolutely beautiful. Seeing these characters I know of (but am excited to get to know further) in the background was fun, and my friends were so happy to see party members they enjoyed. The gimmick of special-switching is so friggin' cool to me, and the specials being chargeable on top of that? Lots of fun new toys to play with.

Music-wise, while we didn't get Giga Rosa's theme, we got Zeke's theme and the Torna battle music, and Lora made it in as a spirit! That's so fun. And as for Gears/Saga references...while Sakurai wasn't able to say them out loud, certain costumes were straight-up references to two of the mechs from Xenogears plus a recurring story element in the Xeno series, specifically the Zohar from Xenosaga. I'm a little sad we didn't get a KOS-MOS alt or Mii and doubly sad we didn't get any music from Xenoblade Chronicles X or an Elma Mii, but this is overall much more than what I expected from a Xenoblade 2-focused pack.

The Capcom costumes leave me in a very strange place. I want to say that this means Capcom is out of the running because that seems to have been the case so far, but then Sakurai went and said that they're only there to promote the new Monster Hunter and G&G games...makes me wonder if that means we could see more Capcom content with either a fighter or more Miis to come. Well, I'll keep holding out hope for Phoenix. It's not over until it's over.

I will say, though, the Arthur costume is awesome. So cool to see another classic franchise in Smash in some way! Overall this presentation was a lot of fun and I can't wait to play as the new girls tonight!

Nominations: Beatrice xMaximum (10?)

 

[Deleted member]

P/M Presentation

I only got around to listening to Maximillian Dood's stream of it at work when it went live, and now I got around to watching the thing itself. I'll only touch on things that interested me.

-That stage looks pretty small, but it's also full of color which makes it look pretty good.
-Interesting how Rex was considered to fight alongside P/M similarly to Ice Climbers only for that to get scrapped due to technical limitations. It also makes me wonder if Rex was initially going to be the fighter instead of P/M.
-I like the alts. The way the colors mesh with P/M look real good.
-So basically Pyra and Mythra are Ryu and Ken but with different attacks to separate them from being complete echoes is that right? I'm not really big into how Ryu plays, and Pyra seems to be more like him. Meanwhile, Mythra seems to be more like Ken, and I like playing Ken.
-Those lvl 8 CPUs blew a 3 - 1 lead. Imagine if Sakurai went up against lvl 9 CPUs instead.
-16 tracks is good. I never got around to listening to XC2's OST, so I'm gonna listen to all these tracks whenever I get around to it.
-6 new spirits and 1/3 are spoilers lmao. That censor job did them no favors.
-I was really surprised the latest Mii Costume lineup was only Capcom related. I would've figured the Lloyd costume would return with P/M as the franchises they come from are RPGs, but I guess we're gonna have to wait later on that 1.
-While listening to Max's stream, he was banking on a Monster Hunter character in Smash so hard, he once again monkey paw'd himself into being right. I can certainly understand some people's disappointment that they couldn't become an actual fighter.
-definitely wasn't expecting Arthur to turn up as a Mii Costume
-Sakurai saying the Monster Hunter costumes were for the upcoming Monster Hunter Rise now has me wondering when and how they plan out their Mii Costume selections. Did they choose which Mii Costumes release with who before or after Vol 2 was finalized?
-feet.
-Sakurai's figurine collection is awesome. People are gonna take off on what yet-to-be-added characters have figurines and wonder if Sakurai might have it also.
-With Sakurai saying there's only 2 fighters left, it really appears to be the case that Vol 2 will indeed be the last set of DLC for Ultimate. It's a shame that might appear to be the case.

Edit: I forgot to mention Sakurai mentioning P/M's trailer was the only 1 he hasn't wrote himself. That seems to imply the last 2 characters' trailers were written by him.

Satisfaction Rating: 65%

I wasn't very interested in P/M too much, but I can say Mythra and everything else unrelated to XC2 were neat. Monster Hunter no longer being a contender for DLC does make me somewhat glad that 1 of the top contenders for DLC are no longer in the running, but if I can't rule out another Pokemon happening because the Spirit Event/Tournies involving them are for promotion, I can't rule out another Capcom character happening for similar reasons (though I don't think another Capcom character was likely to begin with anyways).
----------------
Noms:
Zagreus x10

 

[Commander_Alph]

I actually really enjoyed the presentation, while I don't know nothing about Xenoblade Chronicles 2 Sakurai's brief explanation of the series, character and lore make it easier to keep up. The stage is nice and you could say really breathtaking.


Pyra/Mythra gameplay are pretty basic at best with the thing that keep me up is how Sakurai presented it and the line delivery.


The color palette and also the spirit board is pretty generic as I don't really expecting many new XC2 spirit since half of the important cast are already exist in base game but I'm really surprised that Sakurai doesn't give 2 cent and addPneuma like that with new artwork and also being one of the color palette despite Sakurai acting like he wanted to hide it.


Mii costume on the other hand.. eeeh, it's alright, I'm pretty much already tired with Sm4sh costume he could just drop it all (or in this case the remaining 2) with Pyra/Mythra but instead keep the Lloyd costume for the next time and once again setting the fans on a false hope but, the addition of the Felyne hat is cute, don't know much about Arthur other than MvC but having him is much appreciated.


Satisfaction: 46%



Noms: Disgaea rep xALL

 

[NintenRob]

Satisfaction 90%

Not much to say that others haven't also said. I find it acceptable that technical reasons are why Rex isn't playable. And between a solo Rex or what we got, I think I'm happy with what we got. The stage does look prettier that expected. We also got more songs than expected, more stage themes too which I didn't expect, I pretty much thought it world be Mor Ardain and battle themes.

I will say though there are two songs I'm a bit disappointed didn't get in. Monsters Surprised you and Giga Rosa. They were probably the songs I most wanted.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego x10

 

[Pillow]

To clarify (because I've been confused by this more times than I'd like to admit), predictions and reactions days means 10 nominations free for everyone who participates. It's too late to change your nominations for yesterday (because I've already counted them, heh) but if you just gave 5 for today, you should change that!

My tiny brain can't keep up with such high level math. If you're the one counting, would it be possible for you to just assume I put the maximum noms I have each time for FromSoft until it's rated?

 

[Jomosensual]

It's late and I'm tired so I'll keep it short

Pyra and Mythra sat - 70%

They seem fun. PLayed them a tiny bit and they seem fun. No objections to anything I saw today I suppose. feels like Capcom is in rough shape though and Lloyd is our final costume left.

Noms
Far Cry x all

 

[GoodGrief741]

for each day or separately? either way i think ive got some left over

also whats the policy on changing our satifiaction percentage? cause if theres a remix by yoko shimomura i want give them some more

That would be 10 for each day, so if you gave a satisfaction rating you're entitled to 10 noms. As you would have been if you predicted yesterday, but there's no changing the past.

As for changing your satisfaction score, you can do that until the day ends.

My tiny brain can't keep up with such high level math. If you're the one counting, would it be possible for you to just assume I put the maximum noms I have each time for FromSoft until it's rated?

Sure, just write xMax instead of a number, or some variation of that, when you give noms, and I'll automatically count them as however many you've earned.

 

[Deleted member]

90%
My main gripe about the presentation is that I expected Sakurai to present the Xenoblade series as a whole like he did for , , and , as well as throwing a few additional nods to how it shares several themes with Tetsuya Takahashi's other works, Xenogears and Xenosaga.

The reasons behind Rex's exclusion were to be expected, and while he could have offered a more diverse moveset by using other weapons than the Aegis's Sword, playing as the poster girls who were barely playable in the first place (minus TTGC) instead appeared to be more appealing in the end.

The stage looks prettier than I expected. Not much to add here, except that I like how imaginative they went for the BF and FD versions.

The song selection is indecently good, with The Power of Jin being the sole noticeable absence. What I do fear though is that the other 3 XC2 songs won't get patched and still will play at a lower volume than usual.

Finishing the video with 4 Capcom-themed Mii Costumes was an odd touch, as well as no KOS-MOS costume.


Overall, a solid presentation, and definitively happy that Xenoblade 2, and Monolith Soft by extension, get the justice they deserve.

I forgot to add my nominations.

Giving x10 for the following concept:
Ending/revamping Rate Their Chances x10

 

[Inue Houji]

I forgot to add my nominations.

Giving x10 for the following concept:
Ending/revamping Rate Their Chances x10

There's an edit button at the bottom of your post, it's easier if you use that.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Giving x10 for the following concept:
Ending/revamping Rate Their Chances x10

I'm sorry, what???

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I forgot to add my nominations.

Giving x10 for the following concept:
Ending/revamping Rate Their Chances x10

I’m not in a good mood, but I’m gonna call you out on this one Chief.

First off, RTC has actually done a lot of revamping over the past three years. For starters, the thread has managed to move towards a discussion based format more so. Take a look at some of the older posts from Sm4sh RTC or even the earlier days for ultimate RTC. By changing how nominations work, people can do more research and more effort into a post in order for the post to get bonus nominations. The nomination process has been streamlined in order to also let people have an easier time nominating what they want. Other changes to improve the thread also have helped make the thread a lot more discussion based in the past.

Second, this is absolutely a worthless nomination. What possessed you to come here and basically say that this thread should end? One of the positives that this thread has is that it helps smaller fandoms grow. Great examples of this are how Adol’s day went or how characters like Arle or Reimu grew their support over time. What possessed you to come into this thread and say a system that has already seen plenty of revamps should be revamped again or scrapped? The fact you even didn’t edit into your post also comes off to me as insulting, like you needed to make sure everyone knew you were upset.

This won’t be counted. RTC is open to feedback. Many of the revisions we have made over the past three years are from feedback. Almost all the revisions we made or didn’t make the past three years were directly due to user feedback. But this passive aggressive, catty waste of time is not the way to do it.

 

[Deleted member]

I’m not in a good mood, but I’m gonna call you out on this one Chief.

First off, RTC has actually done a lot of revamping over the past three years. For starters, the thread has managed to move towards a discussion based format more so. Take a look at some of the older posts from Sm4sh RTC or even the earlier days for ultimate RTC. By changing how nominations work, people can do more research and more effort into a post in order for the post to get bonus nominations. The nomination process has been streamlined in order to also let people have an easier time nominating what they want. Other changes to improve the thread also have helped make the thread a lot more discussion based in the past.

Second, this is absolutely a worthless nomination. What possessed you to come here and basically say that this thread should end? One of the positives that this thread has is that it helps smaller fandoms grow. Great examples of this are how Adol’s day went or how characters like Arle or Reimu grew their support over time. What possessed you to come into this thread and say a system that has already seen plenty of revamps should be revamped again or scrapped? The fact you even didn’t edit into your post also comes off to me as insulting, like you needed to make sure everyone knew you were upset.

This won’t be counted. RTC is open to feedback. Many of the revisions we have made over the past three years are from feedback. Almost all the revisions we made or didn’t make the past three years were directly due to user feedback. But this passive aggressive, catty waste of time is not the way to do it.

First, my post wasn't intended to sound as agressive as it looks, and I am sorry for that. I should have done what Inue Houji suggested and put my nominations through edition.

Second, despite the various revamps this thread as gotten, I'm still annoyed by how the scoring works, and it still should be re-imagined in a friendlier way in my opinion.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

First, my post wasn't intended to sound as agressive as it looks, and I am sorry for that. I should have done what Inue Houji suggested and put my nominations through edition.

Second, despite the various revamps this thread as gotten, I'm still annoyed by how the scoring works, and it still should be re-imagined in a friendlier way in my opinion.

That doesn't change the fact that your nomination does not make any sense. If you are unsatisfied with how this thread works it's totally fine to just leave some constructive feedback. What good does it do to shove it on the nominations list? This is the Rate Their Chances thread. We rate things here. Assuming nobody would question this nomination and just allow to it climb up the nom list, what would happen when we would reach its day? This isn't some piece of legislation designed to alter the thread, we just give concepts a percentage of chance and want when it comes to Smash Ultimate. This couldn't be rated cause it would have nothing to do with the game itself and would just leave people dumbfounded.

Even more confusing is your suggestion that this thread (or specifically the game of RTC) should end. If you have problems with RTC and want it to improve why would you bring up ending it altogether? That's like writing an essay and instead of attempting to fix some typos you just decide to erase the whole thing.

We don't know what you're trying to achive here.

 

[Deleted member]

Even more confusing is your suggestion that this thread (or specifically the game of RTC) should end. If you have problems with RTC and want it to improve why would you bring up ending it altogether? That's like writing an essay and instead of attempting to fix some typos you just decide to erase the whole.

By "ending" I meant it in a "destroy to reconstruct" way.

Again, I recognize I should have worded it better, but it doesn't change the fact I'm bothered by how the scores are given in percentages instead of another kind of rating, like with letters.

 

[DanganZilla5]

By "ending" I meant it in a "destroy to reconstruct" way.

Again, I recognize I should have worded it better, but it doesn't change the fact I'm bothered by how the scores are given in percentages instead of another kind of rating, like with letters.

I cannot speak for the RTC team, but I don't see a problem with the percentages. It does basically the same thing as other forms of ratings, just with more accuracy. Also, a benefit of the percentages is that it allows us to do predictions for the next character's chance rating.

If you have a proposal for a new system, maybe you should PM Phantom. Otherwise, the percentage system is fine as it is.

 

[Inue Houji]

I do somewhat agree with the percentage thing, but I have no suggestions to replace it.

The reason is that there's no universal agreement regarding what they actually mean.
For example, for me, around 20% is a character I'm indifferent towards, anything lower I either dislike or is too irrelevant.
Up to 50% are generally characters I like, but don't have any personal connection to. Above that is usually personal connection+varying degrees of want.

This would probably be an issue with any kind of rating system anyway though.

 

[SharkLord]

I do somewhat agree with the percentage thing, but I have no suggestions to replace it.

The reason is that there's no universal agreement regarding what they actually mean.
For example, for me, around 20% is a character I'm indifferent towards, anything lower I either dislike or is too irrelevant.
Up to 50% are generally characters I like, but don't have any personal connection to. Above that is usually personal connection+varying degrees of want.

This would probably be an issue with any kind of rating system anyway though.

Yeah, that's kinda inherent to any sort of rating system. Everyone has different standards; I generally use 40% for anyone I'm neutral on, but a lot of people use much lower ratings for that. The only way to solve that would be to just lay out universal guidelines for what the percentages mean.

 

[Pillow]

Personally, I think it's rather unfair that everyone's nomination points count the same as mine. I feel like mine should count for double, at least. Can we make this a permanent change?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm all for hearing out new ideas. Either to adopt them or to explain why we can't adopt them. That said, nominating them as concepts is not the way to go about it. As many have pointed out, it makes little sense to have it take up a day because it would mean people discussing the likelihood of it happening for a day, rather than debating whether or not to go about it and how. I doubt the community would want to waste a day on such a topic. Not to mention the impracticality of getting it up to the top of the nominations list. With all that, it came off as a passive-aggressive jab rather than a sincere criticism (and even now I'm not sure it's not trolling).

Still, I'll honor the suggestion. I fail to see the problem with percentages. Everyone can understand percentages, and out of every scale we could realistically use it's the one with the widest spectrum and therefore the most room for nuance. That said, with the magic of maths, I can and have accepted ratings using scales other than /100, like /10 and /5. Someone asked me once - in jest - if they could give a score out of 26, and I said yeah, sure. I also count every decimal given, and once had to solve a logarithm to count a score by someone who was being funny. With that in mind, I really don't see how letters are a better way to give scores. How would I tally overall scores? You can't come up with an average out of letters. If the issue is that a number for one person means something different than the same number to another person, that'd be an issue with any scale. It's a beetle in a box.

---

On a less serious note, I realized that we may have another confirmation! You see, the Arthur and Sophia Spirits are technically not part of Spirit Events. And they are of a character that debuted in Persona 5 Strikers, and Arthur's artwork for GnG Resurrection, which released in February 20th and February 26th respectively. That would mean that...

Confirmed

Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020)
52.53% Chance - 48.89% Want

I realize this is quite a technicality, as it doesn't really fit the spirit (heh) of the concept, and also you could make the argument that they're making an event out of these two Spirits, therefore it's a Spirit Event. So consider it... soft confirmed, if there is such a thing.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm all for hearing out new ideas. Either to adopt them or to explain why we can't adopt them. That said, nominating them as concepts is not the way to go about it. As many have pointed out, it makes little sense to have it take up a day because it would mean people discussing the likelihood of it happening for a day, rather than debating whether or not to go about it and how. I doubt the community would want to waste a day on such a topic. Not to mention the impracticality of getting it up to the top of the nominations list. With all that, it came off as a passive-aggressive jab rather than a sincere criticism (and even now I'm not sure it's not trolling).

Still, I'll honor the suggestion. I fail to see the problem with percentages. Everyone can understand percentages, and out of every scale we could realistically use it's the one with the widest spectrum and therefore the most room for nuance. That said, with the magic of maths, I can and have accepted ratings using scales other than /100, like /10 and /5. Someone asked me once - in jest - if they could give a score out of 26, and I said yeah, sure. I also count every decimal given, and once had to solve a logarithm to count a score by someone who was being funny. With that in mind, I really don't see how letters are a better way to give scores. How would I tally overall scores? You can't come up with an average out of letters. If the issue is that a number for one person means something different than the same number to another person, that'd be an issue with any scale. It's a beetle in a box.

---

On a less serious note, I realized that we may have another confirmation! You see, the Arthur and Sophia Spirits are technically not part of Spirit Events. And they are of a character that debuted in Persona 5 Strikers, and Arthur's artwork for GnG Resurrection, which released in February 20th and February 26th respectively. That would mean that...

Confirmed

Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020)
52.53% Chance - 48.89% Want

I realize this is quite a technicality, as it doesn't really fit the spirit (heh) of the concept, and also you could make the argument that they're making an event out of these two Spirits, therefore it's a Spirit Event. So consider it... soft confirmed, if there is such a thing.

Three cheers for technicalities! Hip hip-

 

[Pillow]

Still, I'll honor the suggestion. I fail to see the problem with percentages. Everyone can understand percentages, and out of every scale we could realistically use it's the one with the widest spectrum and therefore the most room for nuance. That said, with the magic of maths, I can and have accepted ratings using scales other than /100, like /10 and /5. Someone asked me once - in jest - if they could give a score out of 26, and I said yeah, sure. I also count every decimal given, and once had to solve a logarithm to count a score by someone who was being funny. With that in mind, I really don't see how letters are a better way to give scores. How would I tally overall scores? You can't come up with an average out of letters. If the issue is that a number for one person means something different than the same number to another person, that'd be an issue with any scale. It's a beetle in a box.

I'm also fine with percentages, but there is an alternative in the form of an objective scale that everyone shares. You could put on the front post for everyone to see...something like

1 - Impossible
2 - Extremely Unlikely
3 - Very Unlikely
4 - Unlikely
5 - Sort of Unlikely
6 - More Likely than Not
7 - Likely
8 - Very likely
9 - Extremely likely
10 - Guaranteed

1 - Uninstalling Smash
2 - Hell No
3 - Please No
4 - Meh
5 - Don't Care
6 - Why Not?
7 - It'd be Cool
8 - Yes
9 - YES
10 - Have my children Sakurai

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm also fine with percentages, but there is an alternative in the form of an objective scale that everyone shares. You could put on the front post for everyone to see...something like

1 - Impossible
2 - Extremely Unlikely
3 - Very Unlikely
4 - Unlikely
5 - Sort of Unlikely
6 - More Likely than Not
7 - Likely
8 - Very likely
9 - Extremely likely
10 - Guaranteed

1 - Uninstalling Smash
2 - Hell No
3 - Please No
4 - Meh
5 - Don't Care
6 - Why Not?
7 - It'd be Cool
8 - Yes
9 - YES
10 - Have my children Sakurai

I think most people can understand what a 10% means without having to outline a table. Plus we're still guaranteed to get scores like 4.9 or 7.5 which means there will still be ambiguities. I'd rather just let people give whatever number they feel in their gut and have their reasoning explained in a well thought-out post.

It's worth pointing out though that I've seen several people outline their personal scales in a similar manner to the one you proposed, so I imagine most people have one and it's just private.

 

[Yiptap]

Satisfaction: 75%
Compared to all the other FP2 Sakurai Presents showcases, this one was the most underwhelming, but still cool! The main reason the satisfaction is this low (not really that low but still) are the Mii Costumes. I don't even buy the Mii costumes, yet these were super underwhelming. Sir Arthur was fine, but the rest was just Monster Hunter. It doesn't make sense to promote Monster Hunter so hard when it has been confirmed that it is not going to be a Switch exclusive before it was released. I know many people will disagree here, but I just feel they are overdoing it on promotion to just dedicate an entire Mii costume round on it (Besides Sir Arthur; that was a well deserved costume). This is just bias, but I'm a little worried about Phoenix Wright being knocked out of the running. I know it may sound like it, with me writing an entire college essay on why the Mii costumes were bad, but I really did like this Presents. I think the Sakurai's Drawer memes are very funny.

Noms: Meat Boy x Max