Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Commander_Alph]

Final Fantasy 7 has been available on Switch for years now, for the record.

Oof, I'm referring to this situation back in the day before the Switch release and during Sm4sh ( I thought you can figure that out because it's useless to bring up the Switch released when he is already in Smash years ago lol)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Tbh I don't even want Hayabusa, but I find it hard to argue he has many rivals in Koei-Tecmo outside Kasumi, Lu-Bu and Suezo and those three all seem to have more against them than he does:

• Kasumi could be a Mai situation since Dead or Alive is the fanservice fighting game, but she's the closest to a second mascot KT has. I included her because I think she's being overlooked by the Ninja Gaiden Gang.
• Lu-Bu is one of the lead faces of the super successful Warriors series but due to him being the video game version of a real person, he's in Dr. Kawashima's grey area.
• Suezo has no such issues being the original mascot of Monster Rancher, but the series is the least known of the four, and adding a Monster Rancher character before adding the more popular monster collectathon in Digimon is like adding...a King of Fighters character before a... Tekken one...huh...

Ya know what, gimme Suezo as well.

I'd prefer all three to Hayabusa in all honesty, but Ninja Gaiden is considered one of Koei-Tecmo's lead franchises and Sakurai's consideration of Ninjara when picking an ARMS character tells me he wants a third ninja in Smash. Ryu Hayabusa is the most ninjary ninja that ever ninja'd so he's definitely a safeish pick...with Kasumi as an outside choice.

As for Crash...eh, I just like Crash.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Lu-Bu is one of the lead faces of the super successful Warriors series but due to him being the video game version of a real person, he's in Dr. Kawashima's grey area.

That's such a big reach.

 

[YoshiandToad]

That's such a big reach, first off why compare Dr. Kawashima, a person that is still alive till this day to a war soldier that fought during ancient china which is decade ago and obviously died before even reaching the 19th century (and also heavily based on a work of fiction "Romance of Three Kingdom" just like the entirety of the Castlevania series based off of Bram Stoker's Dracula which is also a fictionalize version of Vlad the Impaler)?

Because it's a grey area.

I can't say for sure if he'd be considered for a fighter role as he doesn't fit the one rule Sakurai has stated outright; "originates from video games".

Lu Bu did not originate from video games. Lu Bu did not even originate from fiction.

Whilst I actually forgot about Dracula being in the game as a boss, Dracula himself was not a real person. Vlad and Lu Bu were. Whilst both stories are public domain, I'd also never put Dracula forward as a possible pick for a fighter, and he was never considered by Sakurai as far as we know.

Alucard was, but as far as I'm aware he was not based on a real life person.

 

[Deleted member]

Because it's a grey area.

I can't say for sure if he'd be considered for a fighter role as he doesn't fit the one rule Sakurai has stated outright; "originates from video games".

Lu Bu did not originate from video games. Lu Bu did not even originate from fiction.

Whilst I actually forgot about Dracula being in the game as a boss, Dracula himself was not a real person. Vlad and Lu Bu were. Whilst both stories are public domain, I'd also never put Dracula forward as a possible pick for a fighter, and he was never considered by Sakurai as far as we know.

Alucard was, but as far as I'm aware he was not based on a real life person.

According to this Alucard as a character was created by the film industry, so he technically holds the same status as Dracula himself (albeit originated in Movies and not Literature).

 

[Commander_Alph]

Because it's a grey area.

I can't say for sure if he'd be considered for a fighter role as he doesn't fit the one rule Sakurai has stated outright; "originates from video games".

Lu Bu did not originate from video games. Lu Bu did not even originate from fiction.

Whilst I actually forgot about Dracula being in the game as a boss, Dracula himself was not a real person. Vlad and Lu Bu were. Whilst both stories are public domain, I'd also never put Dracula forward as a possible pick for a fighter, and he was never considered by Sakurai as far as we know.

Alucard was, but as far as I'm aware he was not based on a real life person.

I mean even if he is based on a real life person Dynasty Warriors technically still heavily inspired by Romance of Three Kingdom (which is more of a gray area) but it's still pretty much a trivial thing considering that he is already dead long time ago which is prone to misconception and theory. But still DW Lu Bu isn't supposed to be a direct interpretation and instead just an inspiration kinda like how Palutena is inspired on Athena, a Goddess under different name and I know that Sakurai is aware that a lot of things that is inspired by historical figure is very common even if it's very subtle. I think what Sakurai meant by "have to be originated from a video game" meant that the character hasn't yet appeared on other media before video game.

 

[YoshiandToad]

According to this Alucard as a character was created by the film industry, so he technically holds the same status as Dracula himself (albeit originated in Movies and not Literature).

Appreciate that, interesting.

I mean even if he is based on a real life person Dynasty Warriors technically still heavily inspired by Romance of Three Kingdom (which is more of a gray area) but it's still pretty much a trivial thing considering that he is already dead long time ago which is prone to misconception and theory. But still DW Lu Bu isn't supposed to be a direct interpretation and instead just an inspiration kinda like how Palutena is inspired on Athena, a Goddess under different name and I know that Sakurai is aware that a lot of things that is inspired by historical figure is very common even if it's very subtle. I think what Sakurai meant by "have to be originated from a video game" meant that the character hasn't yet appeared on other media before video game.

If that is the case, I'd be fine with it.

Like I said, I far prefer Lu Bu to Hayabusa as I'm far more into Warriors than Ninja Gaiden. My only concern was whether he'd be considered eligible or not.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I think the reason for the lack of Octoling talk is the Squid Sister Miis back in Min Min's wave. Generally, all the content from a series releases at the same time; All the Persona Miis came with Joker, all the Dragon Quest Miis came with Hero, all the Minecraft Miis came with Steve, etc. The only exception were the Rex Mii, which came out on the day of release anyways, and the Sophie Spirit, which was a quick little promotional thing for a game that released after Joker's DLC. And that mentality makes sense; If you're representing a game with a big DLC pack, you'd want to focus all the content from it in one place rather than spreading it out. If it's strewn all over it defeats the purpose of a big content pack.

As such, I doubt we'd be seeing a big Splatoon pack. If there was one in the pipeline, I think they would've released all the Splatoon Miis with it. But instead, they released them with someone from a different series, which suggests there isn't any big Splatoon pack to focus the content around.

Glad to see another person considering this, it's a "rule" that makes a ton of sense that a lot of people tend to not take into consideration.


Also who needs Lu Bu or Zhao Yun when we could have Dong Zhuo instead xD

 

[Commander_Alph]

Also who needs Lu Bu or Zhao Yun when we could have Dong Zhuo instead xD

What, I thought you meant the superior Zhang Jiao ))

 

[Pillow]

I mean even if he is based on a real life person Dynasty Warriors technically still heavily inspired by Romance of Three Kingdom (which is more of a gray area) but it's still pretty much a trivial thing considering that he is already dead long time ago which is prone to misconception and theory. But still DW Lu Bu isn't supposed to be a direct interpretation and instead just an inspiration kinda like how Palutena is inspired on Athena, a Goddess under different name and I know that Sakurai is aware that a lot of things that is inspired by historical figure is very common even if it's very subtle. I think what Sakurai meant by "have to be originated from a video game" meant that the character hasn't yet appeared on other media before video game.

I’m in the camp that dynasty warriors counts as video game originated, but I don’t think Palutena is a good example. Sharing the same exact name of the character he’s based on is a rather important distinction in this situation. Dracula is the better example

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Nuclear Gandhi is still by far our best "based on a real person" rep!

 

[7NATOR]

So I have some Predictions for the Last 2 Fighters of Fighter Pass 2, but first Honorable Mentions


Honorable Mentions


Ryu Hayabusa: Right now I'm thinking he might be a Mii costume or something like that. However today is also the reveal of Pyra/Mythra's DLC tournament. If the DLC Tournament is not based of them being Swordfighters (and we also don't get one in the near future) than I will start to think maybe we will have another Sword Fighter in the Pass, and I think Ryu would have best chance of being that


Frisk (Undertale): The Missing Undertale Spirits, especially when Cuphead got one, is kind of suspicious. it could be a case of Toby not wanting one, but considering how beloved the characters are and How lax I think Toby would be, I do think it is weird we haven't gotten

Also, Because Toby Fox was inspired by Touhou, and there have been Touhou elements in Undertale in some capacity, it's possible that Frisk could have some type of Grazing mechanic as well (especially since there is alot of dodging in Undertale as well). I Mention this because of that new projectile glitch that involves something close to grazing. However I don't think Reimu will be in, since honestly I think it may be implied she might not be in, but I'm not counting her out

Sans is already a Mii Costume. Really the thing with Frisk potentially being in is it could be a case where it was decided to have Undertale fighter sometime after the Sans costume, like there may have already been talks for Full fighter, but because Sans was so exciting addition as Mii, it may be why we have 6 Characters instead of the Regular 5. It is just a hypothesis though, lots of speculating with that info. The Full fighter would have also needed to been negotiated in like 1-2 months, but considering Toby is just one man, and they may have already discussed potential Full fighter from Undertale when discussing the Sans mii, it could perhaps get done in that time

If we are Still lacking the 2010's Tournament, like weeks, or even month(s) after Pyra/Mythra just released, than I will actually put Frisk in my Main predictions, especially if we take the glitching into account.



Predictions


Shadow the Hedgehog: I think Shadow the Hedgehog will be in.

Sega got no costume in FP2. Another Sonic character has been a very frequent request for Smash for a Long time, there were even some before Sonic even got in. Shadow has frequently been very popular request as well. Sonic characters are very recognizable and popular, and Sega has also shown that they will license Sonic out very easily, with how he was in Ninjala, OK KO, Fall Guys, Lego Dimmensions, and more

Sega also will want to be Sonic focused in 2021, since it is Sonic's Anniversary. FP2 is going through 2020, and 2021

Sega also had a Fighter in FP1, just like Microsoft and Square, who got another character in FP2. FP2 seems to be really extra additions to the Roster, which I believe Sakurai has also stated.

If you want to get more in-depth explanation for Shadow Specifically, especially concerning specific obstacles like Assist Trophy, Him not being an Echo, and Eggman/Tails being options, you can read the Shadow essay that's in the Sig. Some of the info also applies to the Next character


Waluigi: I think Waluigi is very possible

Reggie did talk to Sakurai about Waluigi sometime after E3 2018, so we know he was already discussed for potential Fighter

We see with examples like the Bomberman Mii costume, that NPC Characters like Assists are having their roles reconsidered. I will say Waluigi (and Shadow) are bigger deals than Bomberman, so it's interesting what conversations happened with those 2

Waluigi is very popular character, and some could argue he's now the most Requested character to be in Smash.

Some have noted the absence of a Luigi's Mansion 3 Spirit, and some have theorized it could be saved for a character, and while there is King Boo, Waluigi is more speculated (Despite not even being in Luigi's Mansion 3) that the spirits could be saved for. This could make sense since

-Waluigi is a direct foil to Luigi
-If Waluigi was chosen, since there are many Mario spirits already, and Waluigi doesn't have much to tie to him specfically, they could use Luigi's Mansion 3 spirits
-Waluigi was revealed along with King Boo in Mario Kart tour on Halloween, so Nintendo have made that connection between Luigi's Mansion kind of

Waluigi has also been heavy in the rumor mill apparently. the people that have discussed this info aren't looked at most fondly, however I do think there was potential info that should be discussed. Stuff like the Paraleak might have some implications that go beyond the intial leak, which Paragon suggested the wrong conclusions, with Info that wasn't as Specific to imply that it meant FP1 would have Waluigi and Frisk in it



I also think it's been implied, whether from rumors, or from what's been happening inside the Actual Smash game, as well as Sakurai not going out and deconfirming the Idea of Assist Deconfirming, that it's likely that we likely to get an Assist Trophy promotion in this pass. Whether it be Shadow, Waluigi, both, or some other Assist like Shovel Knight or Isaac, I think it's likely we get one

yes

 

[Golden Icarus]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how many people find Zhao Yun/Lu Bu to be as likely as Hayabusa. To me, it sounds a lot like the Mega Man vs. Ryu debate back in Smash 4.

Sure, Street Fighter was the more relevant and higher selling series, but Mega Man had the popularity, legacy, and company mascot status. And frankly, Mega Man was way more neglected by Capcom at that point in time than Hayabusa is currently, considering that the Master Collection is coming out soon. Hayabusa is still the company mascot. In addition to Ninja Gaiden's legacy, he's made appearances in both Warriors and Dead or Alive, making him the only Koei Tecmo character who could adequately represent all three franchises. I get the argument for Dynasty Warriors being bigger than Ninja Gaiden (though I do disagree with it), but Zhao Yun is no where near Ryu Hayabusa's level of notoriety.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how many people find Zhao Yun/Lu Bu to be as likely as Hayabusa. To me, it sounds a lot like the Mega Man vs. Ryu debate back in Smash 4.

Sure, Street Fighter was the more relevant and higher selling series, but Mega Man had the popularity, legacy, and company mascot status. And frankly, Mega Man was way more neglected by Capcom at that point in time than Hayabusa is currently, considering that the Master Collection is coming out soon. Hayabusa is still the company mascot. In addition to Ninja Gaiden's legacy, he's made appearances in both Warriors and Dead or Alive, making him the only Koei Tecmo character who could adequately represent all three franchises. I get the argument for Dynasty Warriors being bigger than Ninja Gaiden (though I do disagree with it), but Zhao Yun is no where near Ryu Hayabusa's level of notoriety.

You're forgetting that the Musou series isn't just inviting Hayabusa, it's nothing special for him because all other series from Koei Tecmo made an appearance in other way shape and form something like a meeting place for KT IP, even for a reoccurring for 3 games that's not thing special cause Joan of Arc, from Bladestorm (one of KT forgotten game) also appear for 3 game straight. Heck they even made a crossover game using the Musou formula with the likes of Ninja Gaiden, Dead or Alive, Atelier and even Nioh out of all things. Talk about a "main mascot".




I'm alright calling him a mascot but just stop making every crossover he is in is important, especially Warriors Orochi when he's just there as just another typical guest character, he isn't the steering wheel for the plot nor even the main character. And also I feel like with their collaboration with the Zelda series on making Hyrule Warriors kinda give them a boost on Nintendo's priority. Even if DW isn't the mascot series they're basically the string that is connected to other IP and company playing important role in the background. If you want to be blunt technically KT only using the formula more than the main series for the longest time and even then DW is still a literal who series because of this collaboration, not weighing the same as SF.

 

[Golden Icarus]

You're forgetting that the Musou series isn't just inviting Hayabusa, it's nothing special for him because all other series from Koei Tecmo made an appearance in other way shape and form something like a meeting place for KT IP, even for a reoccurring for 3 games that's not thing special cause Joan of Arc, from Bladestorm (one of KT forgotten game) also appear for 3 game straight. Heck they even made a crossover game using the Musou formula with the likes of Ninja Gaiden, Dead or Alive, Atelier and even Nioh out of all things. Talk about a "main mascot". Also his appearance in Warriors Orochi isn't canon because the story itself is self contained.

I'm alright calling him a mascot but just stop making every crossover he is in is important, especially Warriors Orochi when he's just there as just another typical guest character, he isn't the steering wheel for the plot nor even the main character.

In my eyes, that’s kind of another point against Warriors. The series’ cast of characters is hardly a staple (heck, according to Koei Tecmo themselves, the best selling Warriors game is a Zelda game). In Ninja Gaiden, every single game revolves around Ryu Hayabusa’s story. The gameplay changes, while the cast remains the same. In Warriors, the cast and story changes, while the gameplay remains the same.

I’ll give you that Ryu Hayabusa’s appearances in Warriors aren’t anything special, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been featured in multiple entries. Even if the appearances are minor in the grand scheme of things, it still shows Koei’s desire to keep him on the map. Dynasty Warriors characters don’t get that same love. You don’t see Zhao Yun getting featured armor in Halo 3 and Nioh 2.

 

[millsfan]

So I have some Predictions for the Last 2 Fighters of Fighter Pass 2, but first Honorable Mentions


Honorable Mentions


Ryu Hayabusa: Right now I'm thinking he might be a Mii costume or something like that. However today is also the reveal of Pyra/Mythra's DLC tournament. If the DLC Tournament is not based of them being Swordfighters (and we also don't get one in the near future) than I will start to think maybe we will have another Sword Fighter in the Pass, and I think Ryu would have best chance of being that


Frisk (Undertale): The Missing Undertale Spirits, especially when Cuphead got one, is kind of suspicious. it could be a case of Toby not wanting one, but considering how beloved the characters are and How lax I think Toby would be, I do think it is weird we haven't gotten

Also, Because Toby Fox was inspired by Touhou, and there have been Touhou elements in Undertale in some capacity, it's possible that Frisk could have some type of Grazing mechanic as well (especially since there is alot of dodging in Undertale as well). I Mention this because of that new projectile glitch that involves something close to grazing. However I don't think Reimu will be in, since honestly I think it may be implied she might not be in, but I'm not counting her out

Sans is already a Mii Costume. Really the thing with Frisk potentially being in is it could be a case where it was decided to have Undertale fighter sometime after the Sans costume, like there may have already been talks for Full fighter, but because Sans was so exciting addition as Mii, it may be why we have 6 Characters instead of the Regular 5. It is just a hypothesis though, lots of speculating with that info. The Full fighter would have also needed to been negotiated in like 1-2 months, but considering Toby is just one man, and they may have already discussed potential Full fighter from Undertale when discussing the Sans mii, it could perhaps get done in that time

If we are Still lacking the 2010's Tournament, like weeks, or even month(s) after Pyra/Mythra just released, than I will actually put Frisk in my Main predictions, especially if we take the glitching into account.



Predictions


Shadow the Hedgehog: I think Shadow the Hedgehog will be in.

Sega got no costume in FP2. Another Sonic character has been a very frequent request for Smash for a Long time, there were even some before Sonic even got in. Shadow has frequently been very popular request as well. Sonic characters are very recognizable and popular, and Sega has also shown that they will license Sonic out very easily, with how he was in Ninjala, OK KO, Fall Guys, Lego Dimmensions, and more

Sega also will want to be Sonic focused in 2021, since it is Sonic's Anniversary. FP2 is going through 2020, and 2021

Sega also had a Fighter in FP1, just like Microsoft and Square, who got another character in FP2. FP2 seems to be really extra additions to the Roster, which I believe Sakurai has also stated.

If you want to get more in-depth explanation for Shadow Specifically, especially concerning specific obstacles like Assist Trophy, Him not being an Echo, and Eggman/Tails being options, you can read the Shadow essay that's in the Sig. Some of the info also applies to the Next character


Waluigi: I think Waluigi is very possible

Reggie did talk to Sakurai about Waluigi sometime after E3 2018, so we know he was already discussed for potential Fighter

We see with examples like the Bomberman Mii costume, that NPC Characters like Assists are having their roles reconsidered. I will say Waluigi (and Shadow) are bigger deals than Bomberman, so it's interesting what conversations happened with those 2

Waluigi is very popular character, and some could argue he's now the most Requested character to be in Smash.

Some have noted the absence of a Luigi's Mansion 3 Spirit, and some have theorized it could be saved for a character, and while there is King Boo, Waluigi is more speculated (Despite not even being in Luigi's Mansion 3) that the spirits could be saved for. This could make sense since

-Waluigi is a direct foil to Luigi
-If Waluigi was chosen, since there are many Mario spirits already, and Waluigi doesn't have much to tie to him specfically, they could use Luigi's Mansion 3 spirits
-Waluigi was revealed along with King Boo in Mario Kart tour on Halloween, so Nintendo have made that connection between Luigi's Mansion kind of

Waluigi has also been heavy in the rumor mill apparently. the people that have discussed this info aren't looked at most fondly, however I do think there was potential info that should be discussed. Stuff like the Paraleak might have some implications that go beyond the intial leak, which Paragon suggested the wrong conclusions, with Info that wasn't as Specific to imply that it meant FP1 would have Waluigi and Frisk in it



I also think it's been implied, whether from rumors, or from what's been happening inside the Actual Smash game, as well as Sakurai not going out and deconfirming the Idea of Assist Deconfirming, that it's likely that we likely to get an Assist Trophy promotion in this pass. Whether it be Shadow, Waluigi, both, or some other Assist like Shovel Knight or Isaac, I think it's likely we get one

yes

I Want shadow...

 

[Commander_Alph]

In my eyes, that’s kind of another point against Warriors. The series’ cast of characters is hardly a staple (heck, according to Koei Tecmo themselves, the best selling Warriors game is a Zelda game). In Ninja Gaiden, every single game revolves around Ryu Hayabusa’s story. The gameplay changes, while the cast remains the same. In Warriors, the cast and story changes, while the gameplay remains the same.

I’ll give you that Ryu Hayabusa’s appearances in Warriors aren’t anything special, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been featured in multiple entries. Even if the appearances are minor in the grand scheme of things, it still shows Koei’s desire to keep him on the map. Dynasty Warriors characters don’t get that same love. You don’t see Zhao Yun getting featured armor in Halo 3 and Nioh 2.

I mean even then it's not like they do this intentionally because they still make og Warriors game in the background because again it get overshadowed really quickly but in my interpretation, with AoC be the best selling series they probably value it more than Ninja Gaiden itself because afterall even if your game is unknown they at least still keeping the spirit of the game alive, I mean Samurai Warriors 5 is featured on the recent Nintendo Direct and even showcasing some gameplay on TGS multiple time in the past which shown they're still all aboard on promoting the original series. I mean with how Sakurai love to respect the original IP it will probably prevented Impa to adopt the Musou playstyle if she's ever being playable which this idea has been going rampant. This is probably the case of "I see them everywhere".

And also, Warriors game still featured the same cast, there's not really a case of rotating protagonist in the series more so than the story was told in multiple different view with the same cast with an added new one in every game, and even then Zhao Yun, Lu Bu and probably Cao Cao's POV is the most prominent in the series. Kinda like GBA Fire Emblem with Lyn and Eliwood acting as the protagonist in their own story arc an Zhao Yun is basically the Lyn.

 

[SharkLord]

I've got no stake in the Ninja Gaiden vs. Warriors debate, but from where I stand it seems like a case of character popularity vs. franchise popularity. Ryu Hayabusa makes a lot of direct and indirect cameos, from Dead or Alive to Nioh, but the Warriors formula has been used for a %$#@ton of franchises. Hayabusa's more recognizable than any of the Warriors cast, but I feel like the Warriors formula is so prevalent with all it's spinoffs and crossovers that it's popularity at the moment eclipses that of Ninja Gaiden.

But again, I don't have knowledge on either topics, nor do I care very strongly. I'm just gonna sit back and see what happens.

 

[DanganZilla5]

As a fan of both Ninja Gaiden and Dynasty Warriors, I do think Hayabusa is more likely, though I definitely think people are underestimating Dynasty Warriors. It has created what you can describe as a sub-genre of its own, it's a long-running series that has had consistent releases and plenty of spinoffs, and Nintendo seems to adore the series if Hyrule Warriors is anything to go by. Admittedly you could say that some of these also apply to Hayabusa but that just goes to show that Dynasty Warriors is no slouch either.

 

[Golden Icarus]

I've got no stake in the Ninja Gaiden vs. Warriors debate, but from where I stand it seems like a case of character popularity vs. franchise popularity. Ryu Hayabusa makes a lot of direct and indirect cameos, from Dead or Alive to Nioh, but the Warriors formula has been used for a %$#@ton of franchises. Hayabusa's more recognizable than any of the Warriors cast, but I feel like the Warriors formula is so prevalent with all it's spinoffs and crossovers that it's popularity at the moment eclipses that of Ninja Gaiden.

But again, I don't have knowledge on either topics, nor do I care very strongly. I'm just gonna sit back and see what happens.

That’s a pretty good read on the situation.

But it isn't like Ninja Gaiden isn't a popular franchise. It's the series that put Tecmo on the map, and the original Ninja Gaiden games are heavily regarded as some of the most iconic and important NES games. Basically being "Dark Souls before Dark Souls existed." While the Warriors series is way bigger than Ninja Gaiden, it's legacy is comparable.

Plus, in the end, company mascots almost always seem to get priority, with the exception of Banjo being added over Master Chief, and Joker being added over Jack Frost (though Atlus still falls under the Sega umbrella, so that example is a little shaky). Resident Evil dominates Mega Man in terms of sales and revolutionized the horror genre. Yet, the NES platforming icon was added instead. Pac-Man hasn't been important in decades, but he was still chosen over Dark Souls, Tekken and Tales, which were and still are much more relevant.

Anyways, I've been enough of a broken record today. There is definitely a good argument for Dynasty Warriors, I just personally don't see it happening.

 

[SharkLord]

That’s a pretty good read on the situation.

But it isn't like Ninja Gaiden isn't a popular franchise. It's the series that put Koei Tecmo on the map, and the original Ninja Gaiden games are heavily regarded as some of the most iconic and important NES games. Basically being "Dark Souls before Dark Souls existed." While the Warriors series is way bigger than Ninja Gaiden, it's legacy is comparable.

Plus, in the end, company mascots almost always seem to get priority (with the exception of Banjo being added over Master Chief). Resident Evil dominates Mega Man in terms of sales and revolutionized the horror genre. Yet, the NES platforming icon was added instead. Pac-Man hasn't been important in decades, but he was still chosen over Dark Souls, Tekken and Tales, which were and still are much more relevant.

Anyways, I've been enough of a broken record today. There is definitely a good argument for Dynasty Warriors, I just personally don't see it happening.

I mostly agree, but it's %$#@ing Pac-Man. It doesn't matter what the recent release is; The maze, ghosts, and wakka-wakka will always be an integral pat of gaming. Ninja Gaiden's decently large, but it's not that big. I agree with everything else, but Pac-Man's not really the best comparison.

 

[Golden Icarus]

I mostly agree, but it's %$#@ing Pac-Man. It doesn't matter what the recent release is; The maze, ghosts, and wakka-wakka will always be an integral pat of gaming. Ninja Gaiden's decently large, but it's not that big. I agree with everything else, but Pac-Man's not really the best comparison.

Fair enough, but you'd be surprised how many people were doubting Pac-Man during Smash 4 speculation. Especially since the modern, anthropomorphic design was never all that beloved. Even then, I'll stand by that comparison as it's still another example of legacy and mascot status taking priority over relevancy.

 

[Inue Houji]

It's the series that put Koei Tecmo on the map

It's the series that put Tecmo on the map.
The Warriors series is what put Koei on the map.
They merged in 2009, after Ninja Gaiden's popularity had already started to decline.

Now, I will say I think Hayabusa is more likely, as he has more name recognition, but I wouldn't count Warriors out.

 

[Golden Icarus]

It's the series that put Tecmo on the map.
The Warriors series is what put Koei on the map.
They merged in 2009, after Ninja Gaiden's popularity had already started to decline.

Thanks for the correction! I always forget to account for mergers.

So I guess that makes Dynasty Warriors (Koei) vs Ninja Gaiden (Tecmo) comparable to Final Fantasy (Square) vs Dragon Quest (Enix).

 

[Merengue]

Reimu and Porky

 

[YoshiandToad]

Fair enough, but you'd be surprised how many people were doubting Pac-Man during Smash 4 speculation. Especially since the modern, anthropomorphic design was never all that beloved. Even then, I'll stand by that comparison as it's still another example of legacy and mascot status taking priority over relevancy.

I will never be able to get over this particular speculation event. I can't believe there were a few posters who were bigging up how big a deal Megaman was whilst simultaneously trying to claim Pac-Man wasn't that iconic in the same sentence after Megaman got in and before Pac-Man was revealed.

Madness.

Seen similar discussion regarding Lara Croft too. Not that I think she's coming thanks to us having two DLC SquareEnix characters already, but come on, her status as 'not a big enough deal' shouldn't be in question here.

 

[Ridrool64]

Alright. Here we go. I'm not as confident in individual characters still, so this is just me re-appropriating those concepts of one small and one large third party. Those are still my predictions. So, you can think of this more of a make-the-case scenario rather than a full-blown true prediction. This time I'm going big with a name and a face and a date for both reveal and release. I'll even throw in background colors. Mii Costumes while we're at it.

If we get both around E3 time:

Challenger Pack #10: Arle Nadja & Carbuncle - Puyo Puyo - reveal: June 10th/17th, 2021 - release: July 22nd, 2021 - Azure (Yellow for those insistent on Color Theory) - Kazuma Kiryu, Axel Stone | Sakura Shinguji, Alis Landale | Billy Hatcher | Amitie's Cap

Challenger Pack #11: The Heavy - Team Fortress 2 - reveal: June 10th/17th, 2021 - release: October 7th, 2021 - Red - Crash Bandicoot | Gordon Freeman (Hazardous Environments), Lloyd Irving, Ryu Hayabusa, Adol Christin | Chell | Ghostly Gibus (free bonus for purchasing the Heavy's Challenger Pack)

The major reason why I'm looking at them in particular is because Nintendo gives us characters with strong positives and strong negatives. We've been blindsided so many times that I'm highly skeptical of characters who seem super obvious: Crash, Hayabusa, and others of their ilk. Arle's a bit of a decent player here, she's got a fair few predictions, but I can say with confidence I am the first person to suggest Heavy is coming. Although not even him; I nominated TF2 rep and not Heavy for a reason. I'm going with the safe one there... but you never know, it could be anybody. Even I think this prediction is off the wall, and it's not so much a prediction as it is "here's my case for this character". However, I do believe we will get somebody who appeals more to newer, younger generations of gaming and at least one character who's a bit more... legacy focused, so to speak. Not necessarily a character for older fans, though. Think more like Sephiroth and less like Banjo & Kazooie.

Strong Japanese popularity, a big push from SEGA in recent times, strong genre legacy, and of course, a good sense of uniqueness. She's a legacy character. Very strong western popularity, a good level of popularity back during the ballot, Nintendo history not being nearly as important as previously thought, strong iconicity through the internet. He's a more modern character, which seems to be the focus of Nintendo with this DLC.

If one is coming later:

Challenger Pack #10: Agumon - Digimon - reveal: June 10th/17th, 2021 - release: August Xth, 2021 (a Thursday) - Orange - No Miis for these guys, they'd probably be what I'm NOT counting on.

Challenger Pack #11: Adol Christin - Ys - reveal: September's second Wednesday, 2021 - release: November's first Thursday, 2021 - Red

This alternate set of predictions is fundamentally different from my other ones. Instead of a one-two punch, I'm going with characters a bit more modest yet prominent in their own rights. But Agumon is only really modest in the Smash scene, probably being the biggest Bamco newcomer you could think of. Adol is, to be honest, not that much different from Ryu (new Japanese third party, in at least one rumor we can't definitively debunk for now, etc.) but it's probably not going to be both, and I think the Ys rumors have more steam than Ryu's, which I still can't shake the feeling are the biggest reason he's such a prominent face in speculation.

Honorable Mentions: Rayman, Frisk, Kazuma Kiryu, a bunch of others who I couldn't imagine.

Red Herrings: Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayabusa, Dr. Eggman (and for that matter, basically any Sonic character), a Pokémon

I excluded these characters because while I can see their merits, I feel like these characters are going to be "saved" for the next release to drum up hype for the game. In addition, our rate of correct/incorrect skews heavily in favor of incorrect. I won't count out anybody entirely, except maybe Lloyd as I am of the belief his Mii Costume will be the one to arrive. If he DOES happen, however? I'd be ecstatic and shocked.

Ultimately, though, I don't have true predictions. I'm going with the flow at this point, and I wanted to get across my current point of thinking moreso than drop two names. While I understand Arle and Adol are decently common, some might think I'm pulling their leg with Agumon and probably can't imagine a TF2 rep at this point in time, if ever (at least before Freeman, but I have my thoughts on why Freeman wouldn't be the first).

(Except I do. It's that the next and last characters will be ones here nobody mentioned and, if we rate them on RTC at all, were given near unanimous 0%'s from people unfamiliar with them for some reason that makes sense at the time but will inevitably be held against us in retrospect. This is how Marina Liteyears and Bubsy the Bobcat can be our final two.)

 

[chocolatejr9]

Reimu and Porky

You have to write a paragraph for each explaining why you think they're likely.

 

[Commander_Alph]

I will never be able to get over this particular speculation event. I can't believe there were a few posters who were bigging up how big a deal Megaman was whilst simultaneously trying to claim Pac-Man wasn't that iconic in the same sentence after Megaman got in and before Pac-Man was revealed.

Madness.

Seen similar discussion regarding Lara Croft too. Not that I think she's coming thanks to us having two DLC SquareEnix characters already, but come on, her status as 'not a big enough deal' shouldn't be in question here.

It is probably the usual case of favoritism for a requested character, like this usually happened every time, characters like Mega Man, Simon, and Banjo is less likely to get booted off by everyone's standard because their hard work of constant preaching will be a waste while fogged by nostalgia because "oooh, NES game is my childhood" and they have to do that cycle again while at the same time not minding kicking out Pac-Man, Cloud, and Ryu, three of which really solidify their place in the gaming world: Pac-Man arcade popularize video game to casuals, Final Fantasy, especially 7 revolutionized modern RPG and Street Fighter created the fighting game genre. They just think "Yeah, because icon like them can get in whenever and however they want!" (I didn't meant this to be mean spirited, so read it on a positive tone)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Glad we have had a lot of active discussion the past few days on this topic. But its been a few days so its time to move on.

Before I do though, a few housekeeping things.

First off, RTC will be doing a community night this weekend around 4. For those who do not know, RTC will do community nights where we do Smash, Jackbox, or what have you. Showing up gets bonus nominations. Here is the discord server to join in.

Secondly, RTC will be holding our Spring tournament as well! Showing up and entering gets a few bonus noms, with many more for the top placers. I will post more of the rules later today, but it will be on March 27th around 4 PM EST.

Anywho, today we got Henry Stickman, tomorrow we got Mii Costume: Madeline. You know what to do.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I don't give a Spindly Johnny about Henry Stickmin.

Madeleine costume: 50%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot ×5

 

[Pillow]

Henry Stickmin
Chance - 0%
I often give picks like Crash Bandicoot and Dovahkiin flak for being too Western. But to their credit, they at least aren't Henry Stickmin. It's not an understatement to say he's completely unheard of outside a small portion of Western PC gamers and millennial memers. He's niche even for an Indie character.

Want - 0%
While I tend to like wackier characters and fun outside the box picks, this one is a bit too much in that direction for me to enjoy. We even already have a stick figure cartoon in this game in the form of G&W. Plus the newgrounds affiliation taints it in my mind, as it gives it an association with that awkward 2000's internet humor that I'd prefer wasn't in Smash.

Noms:
xMax FromSoft

 

[fogbadge]

abstain this is the first ive heard of this one. in fact i think i may end up abstaining from the whole line up i do not know any of them

nom grunty x5

 

[SharkLord]

Chance: 1%. I hate giving out zeroes, but he only shot up recently. The Henry Stickmin Collection isn't even a year old yet, and that's what brought him back into the internet's consciousness. Maybe if he has more time to cement himself, sure, but I don't think Nintendo could even be aware of him until after the second pass was solidified.

Want: 30%. The games sound pretty funny. Might check 'em out at some point. Still, for the time being he's not really high on my priority list.

Nomination: Ryza x10

 

[Yiptap]

Henry Stickmin
Chance: 0%
Hoo boy, where do I start. First off, Henry Stickmin started as a point and click flash game. I think that's enough evidence to give a zero percent. I understand that indie characters are still viable, but a character who originated from a flash game? I don't think so. Yeah, all of Henry Stickmin's games have been remastered on Steam, but that's still not enough. Last time I checked, Henry Stickmin has never been on a Nintendo console. Hell, Henry Stickmin isn't even on any other platform besides Steam. By the way, Henry Stickmin has never had a release in Japan. That's the biggest blow to his chances. A character needs to have some global popularity. And sadly, the Stickman doesn't have that.

Want: 50%
I'm extremely conflicted on Henry Stickmin being in Smash. On one hand, I love the Henry Stickmin games. I played them a bunch in the good ol' days. On the other hand, the Henry Stickmin fanbase has turned me off from Henry being in Smash. His fans reference Henry Stickmin everywhere, even the most obscure, background characters. I don't like it when people dislike characters for their fans, but it appears that I've fallen victim to that. Also, I really HATE the Distraction Dance meme. Wherever I went, someone or some video was referencing it. One of the most milked memes in my opinion. Top milker goes to Arcade Assassin. Although I like Henry Stickmin, I can see the ruins of the Smash community when he gets revealed. Especially if distraction dance gets added as a taunt. A spirit would be great, but a fighter? Eh, not so much.

Madeline Mii Costume: 30%
Noms: Meat Boy x5

 

[BowserKing]

Henry Stickman

Chance: 1 to 5%. He has been around for quite a bit (since the late 2000s and early 2010s). But his series would be one of the underdog series if the franchise were to show up, as the chance is very low. I don’t know if he would appear in the second fighter’s pass, but it would be surprising if he joins the fight.

Want: 55%. I think I remember the second part of the series (called escape the prison) and it was one the games I had on a very old tablet that did not last even a full year. Non the less, Henry Stickman would be fun to play as, and I can see him face off against Steve, Wario and Mr.Game and Watch in a free for all. Overall, he would make a decent decent Smash Bros fighter, and also a stick figure would make a great option of a character to appear in Smash Bros.

Prediction: Madeline’s Mii Costume (5%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Stickmin mood:

Spoiler: Henry Stickmin Music

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Well everything that happened since last Wednesday has been centered around the Pythra presentation so all I have to give you is their satisfaction score. I thought about listing what characters people predicted for the final 2 but a lot of people went with descriptors instead of characters, or listed more than 2, so it wouldn't be apples to oranges.

Pyra/Mythra satisfaction
69.55%

No new extra noms so I won't post the list.

by the way have we ever rated a second yoshi character?

We've rated candidates like Kamek and Poochy, but not a general concept.

(Except I do. It's that the next and last characters will be ones here nobody mentioned and, if we rate them on RTC at all, were given near unanimous 0%'s from people unfamiliar with them for some reason that makes sense at the time but will inevitably be held against us in retrospect. This is how Marina Liteyears and Bubsy the Bobcat can be our final two.)

So this is how I win. And all it took was Bubsy...

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Peppino x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Carmen Sandiego xAll