[Collapse=WoT about Falco MU]Curious if this is a popular thought because I think you're smoking something nice.
I've played JNIG, Croi, Krystadez, a **** ton of Reflex, and a lot more whose names you may or may not recognize. God opened the floodgates in my life and said let there be Wario. I've seen Kismet vs. Reflex on a near weekly basis, watched Reflex play Shugo and Ally among other Falcos.
Even from my viewpoint of not high level against top level players, that grab isn't hard to avoid. He can only start it on a small percent gap and it means he actually grabbed you. It starts at 52%, so his combos and low percent strings that lead to grabs aren't going to give it to him and I believe I'm safe at 80% (someone inform me of the actual percent, but that's the benchmark I use and I see success in not getting caught). You can play the platform game if he gets close and you're uncomfortable (even though your kit should be enough to not allow the grab). Normally he can't wait and fish because you're Falco and you can force an approach and cut off lanes even when you're behind. If you're far enough behind that you need to rush at him, you're already near hopeless.
The MU could be argued to even with that CG if it's not -1 (I personally think it's -1).
Falco's kit is still really, REALLY good. His neutral properties in conjunction with his jab, grab, and chain grab are kind of what makes him such an amazing character in general. Wario, like the rest of the cast, doesn't appreciate your spot dodge and rolls. Wario, even more than most characters, despises your jump height as it allows Falco to get to places that would normally allow Wario to safely get back to more neutral ground (especially on stages like BF where Falco is so good at getting to every height whenever he needs to). Lasers are good, like they always are, but it's not unreasonable to expect Wario to literally dodge them forever if he's ahead or until he charges a waft if he's behind and wants it. Jab, Grab, and Bair are your money makers. Kill him with USmash, a good FSmash read, or UTilt/Bair if an opportunity for those doesn't show up. Phantasm allows you to recover well. I mean, everyone talks about Falco being gimpable, which is true as he is, but it requires a hard read to do it. It also gives you a reset option if you run out of space or even a great tool in trapping landings (which is nice because Wario is rarely landing next to you without you being turned around and likely either at a practical frame disadvantage or in his mouth). Also, if the Wario is afraid to use his bike, your taunts are better.
Standard stuff.
I really think the MU is found in Wario's answers to Falco's tools. Falco's neutral properties are really ****ing good. Wario's air mobility means his neutral properties are also really ****ing good. It makes his air dodge and weight so much more valuable that it's borderline ridiculous. With SDI, he can make you hurt for trying some of your jab shenanigans (getting clapped in the ear leads to a really bad position), and god forbid you finish the jab combo. He's hard to kill early unless he decides he wants to get spiked (and honestly, he has to decide he wants to get spiked) or air dodge into an FSmash. Neither of these are something you can bank on. He's slippery enough that he's fairly difficult to kill late as throwing out an USmash is a frightening endeavor unless you have a grab release. It's not uncommon to see Wario live to 180%+. In fact, Wario at 180% and Falco at 130% is not a significant deficit because you both only need the right tap to push the other one past the blast zone. However, while Wario may live longer, Falco should get the lead and be able to hold it. Your rolls, spot dodge, shield grab, and phantasm help you reset instead of getting continually pressured. Lasers, CG, jab, and Bair should net you the first significant exchange lead and if you don't get it, Wario can be rather hellish to pin down into your damage racking set-ups. That's where the slight advantage comes from, imo.
Wario should be behind and give you the opportunity to kill him first. If you don't get it or take it when an opportunity presents itself, a Waft or a stray shoulder cannon can end your stock and make you have to reset it with a fresh Bair and try to do it again. Assuming you didn't die at 70% when Wario was at 90% or something similar, Wario's stock should not be long for this world if you're moves are refreshed. HOWEVER, it is far from unreasonable to say that Wario is very capable to take the first or even second or third stock early and put Falco behind. From behind, the MU gets much harder because Wario can play much more reactionary. Both characters have the tools to make up a deficit, but it's hard.
Wario's CG is very good at creating or overcoming such a deficit and that's why it is important in the MU, but it's kind of like saying Captain Falcon's infinite on ROB puts it in his favor to say that it causes Falco to lose (I am aware that is a much more extreme example, but such is the point of hyperbole).[/collapse]