[COLLAPSE="My response to your post, if you care, KP"]
Is it Marth's weakness, or the player's weakness? How do you truly know, compared to someone like PP/Armada, who say that people overstate Marth's weaknesses? Even M2K has had Marth at the same spot as most people (5th) on the tier list. Are these players just using useless theorycraft, or do they know things about this game that you don't/are overlooking?
My position isn't that marth's position is that wrong, only that peach's is obviously wrong. Also, 5th is **** in this game compared to the top 3's matchup spread or even top 4
Psuedo pressure? I understand what you mean here, but I think his pressure is a very real threat, due to his punishment/positional game. Tell me if I'm misunderstanding, though.
The strength of pressure corresponds directly to the strength of your char to punish the opponent from having the opponent pinned. When any actual commitment (dashing close enough to cover the roll away reactively or shing to pin them [best option ever unless they are fast like fox/falcon or have a dash attack that cuts under like sheik/peach]) runs the risk of completely reversing the situation for marth. Marth does well when he manages to pin the opponent, better than fox/falco. The issue is that every small hit at low percents doesn't actually serve any real purpose if the opponent is good and moves promptly and gets lucky (times the roll in/dash attack/fast flying nair while marth is committing, partially reaction, partially guessing correctly when marth is committing. I don't feel like elaborating a half dozen situations just for this).. everything from low percent dtilt to nair to fair have these problems. just using grab is not a consistent option at high level (did anyone else get amused by the grab spam and think they would do the exact same thing?). Anyway fox/falco can deal with this because they do low commitment moves and then cover the roll anyway (has anyone else watched the video where mango is teaching smash and just keeps telling the crowd the opponent is going to roll until he does while doing low commitment zoning with AC bair? if he had been marth in that situation misreading the 4 times in a row that he did would have been his opponent getting out for free 4 times in a row). Dashdance on the other hand like pewpewu/PP prefer to use deals better with the random roll out (even if they roll at a timing you can't guarantee a grab on, you still have your pressure though now they are on top of you), but the weakness of this is if the fast char just mix-up ignoring your pressure and attacking and just rolling away if there is any room. falco can ignore your pressure and reverse the situation as well by lasering or by taking the time to turn around so that he has access to AC bair pokes. sheik/peach can just dash attack you/wd tilt you. Anyway i don't know why i'm bothering to argue that marth's pressure is far weaker and higher variance than falco/fox's pressure. I think almost everyone on the board would already agree with that. What i really want to argue is that peach hands down beats marth in terms of pressuring pinned opponents except for falco on the larger stages where she can't cover top platform). Peach in float has stronger coverage of actual movement from shield. aggressive options from bad positions don't work because peach can just trade, and if she is wrong and they roll while she was about to commitment, fade back and aerial dsmash aerial jab jab and you may get something anyway. Marth and falcon in their fail pressure situations get wrecked for it, top level chars (sheik falco fox) do not.
Does this mean that Falco/Fox are bad characters for progressing through tournament with as well? Or am I misunderstand what you mean by "high variance"? I know how you're applying it to Marth, and I agree (his biggest weakness by far is when he looses his footing, because he is so very awful at getting it back), but spacies deal with a similar issue, where one hit on them can very well be their stock.
Fox/falco need to die within 2 grabs if you plan to keep pace with them at high level. Dying in one adds variance, but to be blunt, fox/falco have ways to avoid that even on FD. Dying in one grab is just being bad. And dying in two may be a problem at low level but only gives marth a chance of winning at higher level. The assumption also is that fox/falco can't match marth's damage output, which they can, learn to combo. fox is the only one where it even requires a huge amount of tech skill to combo marth at high level, and that's only because marths have learned to smash DI upair. Regardless I feel like this is offtopic. THe real issue is that winning neutral and maintaining pressure are far more useful than marth's grab
Again, the amount of variance in player styles/player skill, the limited pool of usable talent (maybe 20 percent of people who play this game are high/top level), and the fact that people aren't really playing to the optimal strategy in every set (and other human errors)...I think all of these factors combine to say that we can't just look at results and say, "This is what it must be."
There are sufficient players to expand marth's tiny variance of styles. Pressuring with nair to catch jumps out of shield like PPu does is not new. I've seen 2 marths that play like that in the last year. You can vary how you pressure and you can vary how you camp. For marth that tends to be varying within 2-3 decent options.
when we have hundreds of matches that people can just sit down and analyze the tiny 4-5 decent options marth has in various situations it should be easy to see after watching 40+ videos of marth-falco why he has issues.
The real reason people don't see this is they want to believe this game is nice and balanced and even, just like in brood war, where somehow a sudden shift from even win rates to 80% plus in terranvszerg after switching to one build was just "flash being an amazing god tier player" rather than an obvious imbalance due to changes in the way the game was played. That is until everyone else started duplicating his strategy and it suddenly became, 'maybe terran is a little good vs zerg.'
A lot of SWF tend to take theorycrafting into their own hands, I suppose, but I don't agree with letting results alone dictate how good a character is, for the reasons above and more.
M2K has had a fair number of close Marth/Falco sets, but he says it himself that he "gets emo" when playing against them at times, and that influences his performance (look at Zenith 2012 GFs, set 2, game 5, for example). Is it hard to believe that a player can just be uncomfortable in a matchup?
PP 3 stocks him when he's playing well and still 1 or 2 stocks him when PP plays horrendous and gives him free grabs....the difference is you don't spend the hours watching m2k's vids in slow mo. M2k isn't off, he isn't gettting emo and losing from nerves. He's losing cause falco is good. God tier goodl Those matches where he feels off come from a very specific reason; you get Freaking pinned in shield by a laser and any move you do out of shield if not a perfect read on how and when falco chooses to come in results in you getting wrecked. When your only response for several stocks of a match is to determine how you're going to play from stun and the stun from laser consistently results in falco breaking your spacing and reaching a spot from which you cannot react but must read. As long as marth continues to be forced to commit, he will continue to lose to falco. Maybe not every set, but there will never be marth dominance vs falco again unless the falcos just suddenly decide to retire
How hard is it to believe that you can simply be outplayed? You're assuming that M2K knows everything that will ever need to be known about Marth, just because he's a top player who has used him for so long, and that all he says about Marth should be taken 100% at face value. Don't misunderstand me, M2K is without a doubt extremely knowledgeable when it comes to Marth, but human beings make mistakes, errors in judgement, and come to revise these as they learn. Don't throw out that possibility.
I don't disagree with this statement; i just think it's utter bull**** to discuss and design tier lists based on some theoretical possiblities that may exist somewhere that no one can even propose. What kind of useful strategies have we seen promoted instead: A. just fail to commit, if marth has stage control he will win eventually (umbreon) and B. fsmash more. Hmm, all these revolutionary ideas from the marth boards. The last revolutionary idea was leffen's introduction of dash back powershielding, but most of the marths can't even do that consistently enough to realize that this doesn't deal with falco unless you can do standing powershielding as well.
Can you name tournament sets that high level Marths have dropped to mid level Sheiks?
Tai and someone else. probably pewpewu? don't remember. It's not really relevant though cause at top level marths don't try the matchup. anyway, i'm biased, PP's matches vs redd and chillindude's sheik in tourney are enough to demonstrate the issues marth has, if not, m2k vs over, or m2k's other recent match he lost to a sheik that i can't remember showcase that jumping around like an idiot gets you wrecked by people in the know. PP plays the matchup solidly, but 4 stocks his non-top level opponent with falco, while getting taken to last match vs redd. And no, he wasn't off; he played like a god, literally the best I have ever seen any marth play vs sheik in history and i've been watching marth vids a long time. It's a pity that the rest of you have not seen even half as many sets of PP's marth in tourney because he tends to only pull it out at locals and then not get recorded. m2k, PP, and tai have issues with the matchup, and PewpewU doesn't because he doesn't actually get stuck with high level sheiks in his bracket at majors somehow
It isn't unreasonable (it actually follows reason), but don't take them as they come.
I agree with most of this. But if it's within human capabilities (I'm tired of people saying that Fox is placed where he is because of TAS expectations when that CLEARLY isn't the case), should the difficulty of the technique be counted as a character weakness? I'm not really answering the point you make in this paragraph, but one you had in your other post.
I'm just trying to understand/explain/perhaps enlighten. Tell me if my interpretations of your statements are off-base.[/COLLAPSE]