adumbrodeus
Smash Legend
Actually, that's what pokes are.That's all well and good theoretically, Adumbrodeous, but in practice that's not how matches go down. The reason the matchup is by no means 20-80 comes down to RANGE and PRESSURE, and more specifically, the relationship between the two. Yes, as you exhaustively explained, Marth can out space Ganon with his poking, and can punish well when Ganondorf approaches. Theoretically, Marth should be able to space himself in a way that Ganon never gets at him, and if he DOES, then he can punish. Frame data says all of this is true. The thing is, Marth has no way of FORCING Ganon to approach. His RANGE is not great enough to space himself safely spaced from Ganon and still turn on the heat.
Now hold your horses, don't start typing your reply just yet; I'm not saying what you probably think I'm saying. What I mean to say is, his advantage in range via approaching pokes is not great enough to keep Ganon far enough at bay to keep him from being very dangerous. That is, essentially, Marth doesn't have a projectile to literally force Ganon to make a move or just endure spam (DDD), and neither has the speed advantage to force Ganon to make a sloppy move (MK). Ganon can remain safely outside of Marth's range while still throwing out bait which sets him up for follow-ups which exceed Marth's range. This is exactly how I play this match at tournament level.
They're a tool to force a predictable response, similar to a projectile. You see, for Marth the idea is not so much that he wants to simply keep you at poke range, he wants to use safe pokes to force you to commit to an approach.
It's the same as with an actual projectile, you use it to apply pressure, hopefully get some damage, but the main thing that it actually accomplishes is decides who needs to approach. Marth mimics that in effect by walking into shield-poking range and walling you with a combination of well-spaced fairs, nair, ftilts, and dtilts.
He has no barriers to obtaining that range, and the only way you can break it is by approaching him or falling back (which he can follow obviously, further limiting your options). So, what do you have to do to deal with his shield pressure? Same as with a projectile user, try to get a spacing that is more advantageous for you, by approaching. And it's not like that spacing is just bad for Ganondorf, it's positively horrible, because Marth has 4 poking options, one of which is a kill move. Sure, any spacing further away is totally neutral, but realistically, that fact doesn't change much.
On paper, Marth swamps this poor dude, but in practice, it's an entirely different beast. Marth can sit there and poke all day, but I'm not going to be in range, so it doesn't matter. He can punish me with quick moves OoS, but I'm not going to approach cavalierly, so it likewise doesn't matter. I will entirely agree that Marth has the advantage in this match-up, but it's not 20-80 because Martha just can't put on the pressure. Ganon and he are both waiting for the other character to come within range or make a mistake, and that is why on-paper advantages like slightly out-ranging Ganon or 0 frame dolphin slash don't allow Marth all the advantages in practice that you suggest they do on paper.
I think you're misunderstanding, you won't be going into poking range, HE'LL be moving into poking range and there's nothing you can do to stop him. Heck, even projectile users like Falco don't provide a reliable defense on Marth getting that spacing and abusing it, that's why Marth v. Falco is a 60-40 marth. Does Ganondorf have anything at all to stop Marth from getting that spacing? (I hope that you recognize that is a rhetorical question)
Let me explain how the match develops at the top of the metagame.
Match starts:
A. Marth tries to advances to poking range.
Your options:
1. Retreat: Marth continues advancing, repeat question A, with less room.
2. Jump over him: he initiates juggle trap.
3. Let him: advance to B.
B. Marth gets into poking range
Your options:
1. Shield/spotdodge/airdodge/etc.: Repeat decision B, unless he dtilted, in which case you'll either be grabbed, eat dancing blade, or repeat decision B depending on your reaction.
2. retreat: Marth moves forward again, and resumes poking. Repeat decision B with less room.
3. Jump over Marth: Marth's juggle trap is beat, an awful idea.
4. Approach: You better predict him throwing out a move perfectly because if you don't, you touch shield and you're eating either dancing blade or Dolphin Slash.
Obviously this is a bit of a simplification, and some stages will hinder that pattern and some creative spacing and zoning will be done but because Marth holds the range advantage, this is the standard development of the match-up.
Platforms in general are just a repeat of B.3 btw, you don't want to be on a platform in this match-up.
Really that's the main thing, Marth approaches into poke range and he suddenly has a tremendous advantage. Since Ganondorf is virtually defenseless at that range, he can delay the inevitable by defending or retreating, he can ask for a juggle trap, or he can approach. Realistically the most viable option for Ganondorf is approaching, and hoping for the best. The problem is that he doesn't have anything safe against Marth, so it's a horrible horrible situation to be forced into.
Again, it's like the Ganondorf versus Captain Falcon match-up, with Marth being Ganondorf and Ganondorf being Captain Falcon. The difference is that Marth can poke considerably better then Ganondorf could. His punishment options are also MUCH more effective.
The match-up develops the same, but Marth is just better at it, that's why he wins by a MUCH wider margin then Ganondorf does in the same position.
That's why I said possibly. Really, I know DDD is difficult, but I don't know DDD personally well enough to feel truly confident in analyzing the match-up, as such I said "maybe". Notice I didn't participate much in the DDD discussion.Feel free to disagree, of course. Closing: it's insulting to suggest that Marth is a harder matchup than DDD at tournament level play. It's just...SO wrong. I'm not sure I'd disagree with people if they suggested that DDD (or falco, for that matter) was 90-10.
Marth and Ganondorf however, my main and my most played secondary, I know both characters like the back of my hand. As such, I am very very confident in this analysis, not only because the raw data is there, but I've just played on both sides of this match-up so many times that personal experience allows me to confirm the match-up.
If DDD is in fact harder then Marth, I would not consider a 90-10 unwarranted. I of course, have plenty of DDD horror stories, but as far as frame data and the like I am far more ignorant of DDD then Marth or Ganondorf.
It does, but it's not safe on block. You dtilt on Marth and Marth will punish you for it on reaction because Marth's punishing moves come out too fast.Marth vs Ganon isn't 80/20. This is why.
http://nicozon.blog64.fc2.com/?video_id=sm5044061
Also, I will add, I'm pretty sure your D-tilt outranges DB and his D-tilt, so if you space well, try to catch him off guard on the last hit and own him.
You have to bait for an opening, but fortunately, Marth is weak from below, so once you get a hit, you have opportunities to follow up.
And that Marth is playing stupidly, he's not camping properly, HE DASH ATTACKS FOR GOD'S SAKE. And he friking rolled into a warlock Punch, AFTER IT STARTED! And how many dairs did he get hit by?
No, it's the Marth player, not the match-up. He's making MASSIVE mistakes.