Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[majora_787]

All these razors... I think Occam himself might be playable.

*takes shot*

Sounds good to me. Maybe he's the one in a two-character reveal.

 

[Paperchampion23]

-I wasn't aware of that. I'd like to see the source for this.

This is the association people are making.

It just means the company uses the same workflow/autocad as the leak is presenting. The rest is assuming they are the same company which may or may not be a good assumption, depending on who you talk to.


Personally, I think it paints a very logical picture. But anti-grinch people will say the leaker did his homework and we were supposed to find this specific company's workflow lol.

 

[UberMadman]

"How could the insiders be so confused as to whether or not this leak is legitimate?"

Well, let's think logically about the characters presented in the leak for a minute. I think between Vergeben, Grinch leak, the image leak, the box, and just common sense, pretty much everyone can agree Ken is in this game. Even if you think some of the evidence for his inclusion is fake, there's just so much of it that it seems highly unlikely that it's all fake. Vergeben said that he has a source which suggests that a second Square Enix rep. is playable, and that very well could be Geno, so it's possible that he is in too. The introduction of the Growth Psynergy item suggests that Isaac might also be in the game, and if he is, he's probably base roster and not DLC since it would be weird if they chose to represent Golden Sun with an item on launch but chose to delay the character associated with it until after the game came out. If at least 3 of Incineroar, Ken, Geno, and Isaac are not DLC, then box theory is dead and Shadow is back on the table, which means that all of the circumstantial evidence of his possible conclusion becomes relevant again. Finally, papagenos has claimed that he has a source who has confirmed that Banjo-Kazooie is in the game in some capacity, base or DLC. I'm not exactly convinced of the accuracy of this myself, but it's worth noting regardless.

When you factor all of this together, then we actually have varying degrees of evidence for the inclusion 5 of the 7 characters in the leak other than the evidence provided by the leak itself. That doesn't mean all 5 of these characters are in, but if even, say, 3 of them are, and sources know that they are, it would be hard to dismiss the leak outright. Given all of this, it's hardly shocking that a lot of insiders aren't outright saying that they know it is fake.

 

[Originality]

Your "sources" are nothing but fake news, and Youtube needs to crack down on some of these lame "news" channels.. Nobody wants to watch a guy at a desk talking, people watch Youtube to be entertained.

This is why we need a dislike button

 

[Sigran101]

I liked your comment but I honestly have to ask.

Why does it take mental gymnastics to believe its real? It looks exactly as how its presented to be: An employee at a french printing company took pictures he shouldn't have. That's exactly how its being presented, unless people are going to start saying that what I'm seeing isn't true reality lol.

I think the background analysis done by vaanrose is really damning. The fact that all of the discrepancies in the background are parts obscured by characters in the official mural especially. That would be one hell of a coincidence. That's the biggest piece of evidence to me. Plus 7 to 9 more characters is hard to believe, though I would be able to believe the leak easily if it was just that. Just my opinion.

 

[Iridium]

I for some reason feel like if Mach Rider were to get in, we would get random and unnecessary gender debates that go nowhere. I would expect it, at least.

 

[Deleted member]

This is the association people are making.

It just means the company uses the same workflow/autocad as the leak is presenting. The rest is assuming they are the same company which may or may not be a good assumption, depending on who you talk to.


Personally, I think it paints a very logical picture. But anti-grinch people will say the leaker did his homework and we were supposed to find this specific company's workflow lol.

Thanks for that.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Speaking of Etika WTH happened with that guy? I never really followed what happened but his YouTube went to the ****ter or something?

It would appear due to depression or something similar, he mentally self destructed and imploded his Youtube channel and all his social media.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

I for some reason feel like if Mach Rider were to get in, we would get random and unnecessary gender debates that go nowhere. I would expect it, at least.

We somehow got into those debates without Mach Rider you bet your ass it would happen

It would appear due to depression or something similar, he mentally self destructed and imploded his Youtube channel and all his social media.

Yikes

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Take a shot everytime someone mentions Occam's Razor
Including this post

look i don't want to die

i'd already have to take a shot every time I Flipped a page.

 

[Cyn]

Guys, please do not respond to trolls. Just move on.

 

[Deleted member]

What is this Occam razor?

In case you're being serious and not sarcastic, it's a philosophy principle in with given 2 possible explanations for something, the explanation that requires the least speculation is the preferred one. In this case, one explanation simply requires you to believe that someone at a French design company accidentally leaked the Smash roster. The other requires you to believe that someone;
-Faked their identity
-Set up a fall company
-Made a backstory about how it was leaked
-Made several minor edits to the banner to fit the leaked characters
-Spent all of their time doing this
-Planted material for the upcoming Grinch movie to make it more believable
And etcetera. It could still easily be fake, but the route that says it's real requires a lot less mental work.

 

[T3Z3R1]

Occam's Razor discussion in nutshell:

 

[ChronoKatie]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the supposed sprout item not actually from Golden sun since it has a bubble around it and since the sprout icon pretty much matched the "medium item drop rate" icon for Smash 4?

 

[TheAJJohnson]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

 

[SmashingXan2]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

As #TeamTrue I would be ecstatic if those were the last characters

 

[ChronoBound]

This whole saga is very bizarre. We have two extreme opposites to the spectrum of what the endgame for Ultimate likely is. Two characters left (Ken and Incineroar) or another seven-eight fighters (Banjo-Kazooie, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Geno, Isaac, Shadow, Ken, and possibly Incineroar). Sakurai's own language has made it seem more like the former, but it still seems like too few. However, the latter seems like way too much. Personally, if I did not know about Vergeben's stuff (and what other insiders have been saying) or the Grinch leak, my own personal speculation would be that there would be four fighters left, and that Ken and Shadow would be among those four, while the remaining two would be two out of Pokemon newcomer/Geno/Elma/Bandanna Dee/Chorus Kids.

Hopefully, we learn the answer within the next 20 days as opposed to closer to the week of or week prior to Ultimate's release.

 

[Deleted member]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

I am an adult man.
If Banjo really is in the game I very likely might cry. There's your answer.

 

[majora_787]

Honestly, I don't even care about or like half of the characters in this leak and I'd be pretty pumped for it to be real.

 

[Untouch]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the supposed sprout item not actually from Golden sun since it has a bubble around it and since the sprout icon pretty much matched the "medium item drop rate" icon for Smash 4?

We don't really know yet, it also resembles the Healing Field item icon.

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

I feel like Gillete makes better razors than Occam's

 

[ChronoKatie]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

Absolutely ecstatic. It would be far beyond what I could have hoped for.

... And that's why I am team not real. XD

 

[Deleted member]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

Absolutely. This leak perfects the roster 100%.

Every single one of the 7 characters is a perfect addition. I couldn't ask for anything else from Daddy Sakurai.

 

[Noipoi]

Occam's Razor discussion in nutshell:

Spoiler

Quick, off topic question. Should I read Homestuck? I was around when the fandom was ginormous but I never understood why it got so big.

 

[Paperchampion23]

I think the background analysis done by vaanrose is really damning. The fact that all of the discrepancies in the background are parts obscured by characters in the official mural especially. That would be one hell of a coincidence. That's the biggest piece of evidence to me. Plus 7 to 9 more characters is hard to believe, though I would be able to believe the leak easily if it was just that. Just my opinion.

There are parts of the background that were altered that are not only behind characters. The cloud above Luigi's and Bayonetta's head has always been present, yet is altered on the leak and the background. The castle behind Zelda's hand also was altered/just not present in the leak but always visible on the banners. The most important thing is, this leaker payed attention to the most minute of details, like the length of Geninja's tongue (which you can barely see sticking out from behind Snake's missle launcher in the current banner) but didn't see the obvious clouds and castles that were visible? These are just two examples, there are other alterations that are not hidden behind characters.

Trust me, I'm not denying that the background isn't different, but people are assuming the background can't be different, and I'm not on board with that assumption.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

You know the Smash community has gone nuts, when we start talking about science...

 

[UberMadman]

In case you're being serious and not sarcastic, it's a philosophy principle in with given 2 possible explanations for something, the explanation that requires the least speculation is the preferred one. In this case, one explanation simply requires you to believe that someone at a French design company accidentally leaked the Smash roster. The other requires you to believe that someone;
-Faked their identity
-Set up a fall company
-Made a backstory about how it was leaked
-Made several minor edits to the banner to fit the leaked characters
-Spent all of their time doing this
-Planted material for the upcoming Grinch movie to make it more believable
And etcetera. It could still easily be fake, but the route that says it's real requires a lot less mental work.

Alternatively, you believe that someone who legitimately works at a French design company faked the roster. There's no need to assume that anything else in the leak other than the roster is fake; it's entirely possible someone who works as a graphic designer at a real company used their position to make a fake leak. Suggesting that anything else has to be necessary is strawman-ing.

 

[Luigifan18]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

Well, yes. Sure, I'm sad about no Vaati or Lip, but I wasn't really expecting the former and the latter is pretty much already buried thanks to NoA being terrified of alienating cootie-fearing boys.

 

[Flynn__]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the supposed sprout item not actually from Golden sun since it has a bubble around it and since the sprout icon pretty much matched the "medium item drop rate" icon for Smash 4?

Like with the Grinch leak itself, there's no way of knowing until we see the object in action by ourselves. It might be from Golden Sun, it might be something completely different, but the important thing is that it might be from Golden Sun and it appeared just when Isaac got supposedly leaked.

 

[Originality]

Spoiler

Quick, off topic question. Should I read Homestuck? I was around when the fandom was ginormous but I never understood why it got so big.

It's a pretty wild ride, if you can get into it I very much recommend it, but it's not for everyone

 

[Noipoi]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

Hell yeah I want it to be real! Even if it's missing Incineroar he could still be dlc. This roster is perfection and i'd hate to see it be fake.

 

[majora_787]

Spoiler

Quick, off topic question. Should I read Homestuck? I was around when the fandom was ginormous but I never understood why it got so big.

It'd definitely distract you until Smash comes out, that's for sure.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

Everyone wants it to be true seeing as how for the past month the entire thread's attitude was in favor of the Box Leak, or at the very least, Vergeben.

With this we get way more than most were really expecting.

I've seen some say they don't want it to be true because it's missing their specific #1 want but that's mostly beggers being choosers, if this leak turns out true the community should have nothing to complain about

 

[Sigran101]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

HELL yeah I do. I'm team fake but I really hope I'm wrong. All of the characters except chorus kids and the echoes are ones I really want and it would bring my favorite franchise custom robo back to the table as well. I'm team fake but searching for reasons to switch over to team real. Here's hoping.

 

[vaanrose]

That confused me as well. Has this been addressed by anyone? If the artist didn’t have a reference to fill in the gaps, that’s something to hide, not show off. Did he think there would never be a clean image to compare his work to?

This has been addressed. The empty banner was only found after about 12 hours since the leak went mainstream, in a four hour stream from day 2 of E3 where it's on screen for half a second. Most people didn't even know the empty background existed, and prior to it being found, the fact that there was an empty background in the leak at all was a point in its favor.

If you believe the empty background has never been released and have the skills to make your own, it adds credibility.

 

[Deleted member]

You know the Smash community has gone nuts, when we start talking about science...

SAKURAI THE SCIENCE GUY

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You know the Smash community has gone nuts when we start talking about science...

I mean we techinically did whenever gender and Mach Rider got brought up

 

[Ryuuma]

OK...we all know that everyone is divided when it comes to do we believe this is real or not, but what if we phrase the question differently:

Do you WANT this leak to be real or not? No facts, no proof, no debunking. If these were the final 7 newcomers, would you be excited?

If all this characters are in the roster, I will be very very happy.

That is why I i'm #teamfake. If i'm not expecting them in the game, i wont be dissapointed if they dont show up =]

 

[Substitute]

only if mach rider gets in haha (to be clear i started the current mach rider support thread and was pushing mach being what character the "robot figure sakurai bought" was going to be used to model for many many months ago. so it would be a long shot character i "called" if mach rider does indeed get in)

sometimes im wrong about stuff when i speculate, sometimes right when i speculate, just like anyone else.

but this is really more about sources and this source is brand new to me, so my "accuracy" on predicting things through this chain of info has never happened before. but i guess we'll find out lol

Did your source provide evidence that they're legit?

 

[Fatmanonice]

What is this Occam razor?

The scientific principle that the more complicated a theory is to explain, the less likely it is to be true. Science values being able to break down information into digestible chunks so if something can only be explained by a lengthy explanation, the information available hasn't been "digested" enough to draw concise bullet points. In a way, shorter is better.