Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[The DanMan051]

You are actually doing the opposite. All of this DID happen lmao and you need to make everything fit into the assumption that a fake leaker did all of this and it worked.

- If real, all you need to say is a snapchat leaked from an employee at a company producing adverts for smash, because that's exactly what it appears to be.

- If fake, You have to prove that this person did all of this to trick everyone.

Does anyone not see why the former is much easier to explain than the latter lmao? Occam's razor is an actual thing and I wish there was a course on it

Some of you guys are so obsessed with Occam's razor at this point I think you're starting to cut yourselves and lose blood.

If it's real, then why is the characterless background notably different in areas that were covered up by characters? Why do you think they'd reveal 7 new characters, 5 of whom are assumed unique, in a period of a month? Why would someone have a printed out version of the characterless background pinned to their wall?

 

[Untouch]

I made two:

The leaks are real.

Eric accidentally leaked them cause he didn't know the promo material was confidential.

You're also assuming that the leaker is Eric.
In order to assume that he speaks English, you have to assume that the Chad Ganondorf leak is connected. It already has a glaring mistake in it (they claim that characters were cut, if they know the roster from working with promo material, how would they know who is cut?)

See what's wrong here?

 

[Nekoo]

Occam's Razor isn't used to prove something is right or wrong. It's to avoid pointless circular speculation. My god man, are all of you in middle school or something?!

Not at all, but you all use it as if the scenario of the leak being fake is impossible "just for the lulz"

Occam razor is a non argument on both side, and Should be the last thing to bring up here

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

And yeah I think from here on out I’ll be taking a break from SB, it’s all the same song and dance at this point

But I’ll probably come running if a direct is announced soon. That is if I’m not at work.

Also pls @ me if my gurl is in somehow

Bye, we'll miss you

 

[Iridium]

Man, the discussion quality here as of right now is just depressing. I can't even deny this one.

 

[AugustusB]

Dang all this Occam's Razor talk...

May I try if someone was looking at the photo for the first time? No context to the source, the person, the place of work, etc.

Team Real: Hmmm This looks like promotional work. Might be real.

Team Fake: Hmmm This looks like promotional work. Might be fake.

IDK I think it could work both ways gang.

 

[Deleted member]

Since excitebike hasn't been chosen as an assist trophy yet, what if Mach bike and excitebike are clones? (Sorry if this doesn't make sense I'm not super familiar with Mach bike as a character)

Mach Rider uses guns, including on the Mach Bike itself.
The game is less about racing with style and tricks than Excitebike and more about getting to the end, avoiding obstacles, and eliminating any enemies in your way.

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

Of course you did, my predictions are epic.

Not really, I seen better predictions, personally...

 

[Deleted member]

Some of you guys are so obsessed with Occam's razor at this point I think you're starting to cut yourselves and lose blood.

If it's real, then why is the characterless background notably different in areas that were covered up by characters? Why do you think they'd reveal 7 new characters, 5 of whom are assumed unique, in a period of a month? Why would someone have a printed out version of the characterless background pinned to their wall?

The reason Occam's Razor keeps coming up is BECAUSE BOTH SIDES ARE SPECULATIVE AND DON'T HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO BE FULLY SUPPORTED. Thus, the only way to conclude the argument is to assume Occam's Razor and go with the one that takes the least assumptions until more evidence to support either side is provided.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I honestly don't know how I kept up with the ESRB discussion during Sm4sh speculation. Maybe it's because I was younger, more naive and willing to believe things, and had something to defend (Shulk), but I just can't do it now.

I cleared my mind of greed and have humbly accepted what Sakurai will give me. Also I sacrified some people to Satan and am filled with chaotic evil energy to ****post with

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Someone speaking through papagenos .

This person contacted Papageno's, did something to prove their veracity (and according to Papageno's, anyone who heard this reason would believe them too), and says that he has heard of all the characters in the Grinch leaks plus Incineroar.

Of course, there's three people in this chain (Microsoft source -> The Middleman -> Papageno's).

So... not for nothing but does Papa have a track record of accuracy?

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

People better start showing you respect!!
Otherwise I might break my keyboard in frustration!!

Ikr, like its all cool now.. Ramen Tengoku saw the post..

Again my predictions were Incineroar, Isaac, Skull Kid, Medusa, Elma, Shadow, Dixie, and Geno.. And yes I do think Banjo will likely be in but not sure if base or dlc for him.

 

[Ace C.R.O.S.S.]

There's only room for one Bayo echo, my friend...

Spoiler

Thank you, now i'm going to have nightmares

 

[doomedtacox]

You're also assuming that the leaker is Eric.
In order to assume that he speaks English, you have to assume that the Chad Ganondorf leak is connected. It already has a glaring mistake in it (they claim that characters were cut, if they know the roster from working with promo material, how would they know who is cut?)

See what's wrong here?

The Chadondorf leak could still be connected, it could be a completely different person who knows the roster as well.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Occam's Razor isn't used to prove something is right or wrong. It's to avoid pointless circular speculation. My god man, are all of you in middle school or something?!

Occam's Razor is a valid argument for or against something depending on your take on it though. Occam's Razor is defined as "the problem-solving principle that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one. When presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions." If something is made to be too complex (like some Team Real and Team Fake speculation), it's valid to claim Occam's Razor as it should be simpler or more complex than it's being made out to be.

I'm in college btw.

 

[Whia]

Welp, I think I'm gonna take a break from Smashboards for now...
This discussion has been nothing but back and forth "It's fake, and here's why...", and "It's real, here's why..."

I'm just gonna wait until we get some new info. Unless it's NieR.

If anything related to 2B or NieR in any way comes up, @ me. That is, only if I don't get summoned automatically.

Can I just say I appreciate there being a(nother) huge NieR:Automata fan here. 2B is legit the last remaining character I really actively want in this game (aside from maybe Tails). Everyone else I wanted I got (Sonic, Ridley, and Mewtwo back); if 2B was announced, I would completely lose my ****.

 

[Fenn]

So... not for nothing but does Papa have a track record of accuracy?

The way that I understand it Papa covers all leaks, but his unique sources do have accuracy.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Question: Do you know for a fact that this man even has anything to do with this?

I mean, its most likely either him or its someone who had access to his phone and his snapchat. "Eric B____" was the snapchat name that was actively attempted to be scrubbed out in both screenshots. Why, if it was someone attempting to impersonate him, actually try and black out the name? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of impersonating someone?

 

[KMDP]

So... not for nothing but does Papa have a track record of accuracy?

This is the first time papagenos has been given anything to leak.

 

[MysticKnives]

Man, everyone's taking a break from this place. I understand why but i'm gonna miss these dudes...

Then this place can be the Noipoi Show starring Noipoi!!!

 

[Sigran101]

You know what's weird about this leak? It takes mental gymnastics to believe it's fake, and it also takes mental gymnastics to believe it's real. Either way it's crazy. On the subject of Occam's razor, I don't think it really applies here. Both positions require a similar amount of assumptions. Neither is really a simpler option than the other.

 

[Union of Darkness]

Leaks had to be taken with his phone, as it's his name on the Snapchat profile.

So it was either him, or someone with the same name as him, who is also French, has the same career as him, and works in the same industry. That or his son is also called Eric and he took the photo.

There's several more assumptions. Let me see if I can be more clear.
-There is no evidence the leaker is this person
-There is no evidence the snap was taken at the company he works for
-There is no evidence the leaker has any relation to him
Please correct me on any of those if I'm wrong.

 

[lurxy]

Has anyone ever asked why a fake leaker would show a faulty background picture? I mean, if I would be able to redraw it, draw all the characters, assemble them and make a fake mock up, I would never show my background which I had to guess parts off just to be proven false because of it.

No, I would just show my finished mural with my leaked characters, make it a post and just would throw it out. This bugged me for a very long time. If you had to guess parts of the empty mural, why show it in your leak if you literally can leak a picture of anything you want.

 

[Iridium]

Also, am I going to be the only watching that Nintendo-hosted event because I recognize the players there? Nothing big, but I legitimately haven't seen some of them in a long while.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So... not for nothing but does Papa have a track record of accuracy?

Just a youtuber as far as I know.
inb4 the big papa baited us all

 

[Deleted member]

Not at all, but you all use it as if the scenario of the leak being fake is impossible "just for the lulz"

Occam razor is a non argument on both side, and Should be the last thing to bring up here

It's not impossible. It's highly highly highly unlikely. And it takes way too many leaps of logic and unrealistic assumptions to work given all the evidence we currently have.

You're also assuming that the leaker is Eric.
In order to assume that he speaks English, you have to assume that the Chad Ganondorf leak is connected. It already has a glaring mistake in it (they claim that characters were cut, if they know the roster from working with promo material, how would they know who is cut?)

See what's wrong here?

Because there's EVIDENCE to support the fact that the leaker is Eric, as the Snapchat was taken FROM his phone. It wasn't a "note on the desk" it was his very own snapchat profile, and it was shared as a story on there.

In order to counter this argument, you need to present evidence that anything other than Eric taking the video from his phone is possible. Currently, all counter-arguments have no evidence to Eric's LITERAL name being attached to the leak.

 

[Deleted member]

Occam's Razor is a valid argument for or against something depending on your take on it though. Occam's Razor is defined as "the problem-solving principle that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one. When presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions." If something is made to be too complex (like some Team Real and Team Fake speculation), it's valid to claim Occam's Razor as it should be simpler or more complex than it's being made out to be.

I'm in college btw.

I know what Occam's Razor is, but what is it being used for? The Grinch leak? Etc?

Spoiler: Huge Image

I hope you do well in college.

I'll add that to the ever growing list!

I made a sweater for you.

He just uses his tongue instead like the kinky son of a ***** he is

No bullying Goey.

 

[KMDP]

Then this place can be the Noipoi Show starring Noipoi!!!

Featuring Zinith .

 

[Untouch]

I mean, its most likely either him or its someone who had access to his phone and his snapchat. "Eric B____" was the snapchat name that was actively attempted to be scrubbed out in both screenshots. Why, if it was someone attempting to impersonate him, actually try and black out the name? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of impersonating someone?

This is kind of grasping (I'll admit), but the leaker didn't do a very good job covering up the name, he could have tried to make it look like he didn't want the name out there but actually did.

 

[RandomAce]

I have to ask; what's the most spectacular account suicide you've seen? What just went down in this thread is up there for me, almost on the level of this (WARNING, NSFW IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT):

I went in here without knowing anything.

Thanks buddy, now I’m dead inside.

 

[Noipoi]

Then this place can be the Noipoi Show starring Noipoi!!!

...It wasn't already?

 

[The DanMan051]

You know what's weird about this leak? It takes mental gymnastics to believe it's fake, and it also takes mental gymnastics to believe it's real. Either way it's crazy. On the subject of Occam's razor, I don't think it really applies here. Both positions require a similar amount of assumptions. Neither is really a simpler option than the other.

As I've been saying from the start, the amount of assumptions largely cancel eachother out. Which is why I mostly cite Omni's art analysis and insider claims as to why I believe it's fake; if we didn't have those I'd be planted in the middle.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

This is the first time papagenos has been given anything to leak.

Alright, no disrespect to the man but I'm not exactly gonna just assume he's unbamboozable

Still interesting though

 

[Shawksta]

You know what's weird about this leak? It takes mental gymnastics to believe it's fake, and it also takes mental gymnastics to believe it's real. Either way it's crazy. On the subject of Occam's razor, I don't think it really applies here. Both positions require a similar amount of assumptions. Neither is really a simpler option than the other.

Your right but at the same time,the idea of what the person’s reason for going though this triple ruse and work firing and identity impersonation and convicting evading is just really bizarre.

People need to stop using them mural as evidence and focus more on the actual leaker. It’s been a wild ride and it just keeps getting crazier.

 

[papagenos]

So... not for nothing but does Papa have a track record of accuracy?

only if mach rider gets in haha (to be clear i started the current mach rider support thread and was pushing mach being what character the "robot figure sakurai bought" was going to be used to model for many many months ago. so it would be a long shot character i "called" if mach rider does indeed get in)

sometimes im wrong about stuff when i speculate, sometimes right when i speculate, just like anyone else.

but this is really more about sources and this source is brand new to me, so my "accuracy" on predicting things through this chain of info has never happened before. but i guess we'll find out lol

 

[TVDart]

It's not impossible. It's highly highly highly unlikely. And it takes way too many leaps of logic and unrealistic assumptions to work given all the evidence we currently have.

Because there's EVIDENCE to support the fact that the leaker is Eric, as the Snapchat was taken FROM his phone. It wasn't a "note on the desk" it was his very own snapchat profile, and it was shared as a story on there.

In order to counter this argument, you need to present evidence that anything other than Eric taking the video from his phone is possible. Currently, all counter-arguments have no evidence to Eric's LITERAL name being attached to the leak.

If that's the case then the "50 year old man who likes Smash is unlikely" argument doesn't apply here since this 50 year old guy already has a Snapchat to begin with.

 

[NastCF]

No, not it's not on me. Both scenarios are speculative. The Fake leak scenario is far more complex and requires more leaps of logic. Occam's Razor. We're going with the one that takes the least assumptions.

Don't like it. Back up your opinions with evidence that support them. How is this difficult to understand?

The part you quoted had nothing to do with speculation and more to do with stuff like:

My god man, are all of you in middle school or something?!

You could be absolutely right in your arguments but I won't even bother continuing to argue with you if you can't help resorting to insulting people's intelligence.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

...It wasn't already?

Now it's starring a guest character, Noipoi!

I don't know where I'm going with this

You know what's weird about this leak? It takes mental gymnastics to believe it's fake, and it also takes mental gymnastics to believe it's real. Either way it's crazy. On the subject of Occam's razor, I don't think it really applies here. Both positions require a similar amount of assumptions. Neither is really a simpler option than the other.

Jesus I can't imagine anyone hitting a nail harder on the head than this

 

[alemerltoucanet]

Someone speaking through papagenos .

This person contacted Papageno's, did something to prove their veracity (and according to Papageno's, anyone who heard this reason would believe them too), and says that he has heard of all the characters in the Grinch leaks plus Incineroar.

Of course, there's three people in this chain (Microsoft source -> The Middleman -> Papageno's).

Ohh, I already knew this all then lol.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

So uh

Who could be the two characters in the so called unique character trailer be? They obviously have to both be from the same series and never before seen. I doubt anyone from the banner would be it either.

I will quote again

Could be faulty information or wrong

But however mentions some of the characters from it are in

Probably
Ken
Shadow
Geno
Isaac

Maybe chorus kids or/and mach rider As well

Mach rider has bigger favor due to the gun sakurai needed and a retro rep