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I feel this is toss up. On one hand, we have record of Sakurai saying that this is it. He has no plan beyond FP2. On the other hand, we have clear record of him taking his words back. Besides "non-video game character" rule, he has shown that he changed his mind time to time. This gives us good precedent and doubt that he will keep his words. It's still kinda middle of Switch's lifespan. It's still early to abandon Ultimate. I think Nintendo is different from before as they realized importance online although their online service is still heavily criticized. I believe there is possibility that Nintendo will break pattern and look into new direction.
Want: 100%
Sure why not? I think it's better for Nintendo to switch Ultimate into live service game. There are plenty of examples this kind of game turning into constant online game with regular updates. Some people say dlc is not as profitable as new game, but I disagree. Plenty of online games earn more money through dlc, mtx. I know people hate mtx, but if it's done right, it's a good way to support and maintain games. Nintendo can definitely learn and adapt. I believe Ultimate is where Smash should settle as permanent online platform. That way, people can always hope for their newcomers without worry or disappointment. Everybody wins.
Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 20
Abstain on chance
Want 100%
Obviously i'd prefer more characters. My ideal direction for the future of Smash is to continue adding new things on top of whats there, as long as they don't limit themselves by what was in the basegame (see, assist trophies). I don't want the ride to stop.
Nominate Carmen Sandiego x10
Prediction, Crash, Hayabusa and Dante will be the most commonly suggested character
Commander_AlphCommander_Alph
Yesterday you gave out 15 noms (10 to Agumon and 5 to a Danganronpa character). However you only rated one concept and wrote less than 10 sentences, so that would grant you just 5 noms (plus another extra 5 that you won). If you want you can correct those nominations.
While more DLC is nice, I don't think that it's likely. Sakurai might choose to depart Smash after FP2. I don't know if Nintendo would want to continue onward without Sakurai at the helm. So, I expect that FP2 will be it when it comes to Smash. Especially considering that FP2 will start in 2022, when it would have been over 3 years since Ultimate came out.
Want: 90%
Who doesn't want more DLC? Especially if it means more chances for our favorites to get in.
Sakurai has made it known development on Ultimate post-launch will be coming to a close. He already alluded to the characters in Vol 2 being the last characters in Ultimate per his Famitsu columns, and with him slowing down on POTD posts, it means development is also slowing down as well. While Sakurai probably won't reject the proposal to make Vol 3, the decision is ultimately decided on Nintendo. On the plus side, Ultimate's DLC cycle has probably lasted a lot longer than other Nintendo games do with 3 years currently, and with reports of Ultimate's DLC being strong sellers, you could imagine Nintendo would want to make more Fighter Passes to turn up profits. However, their track record when it comes to support post-launch puts the idea of Vol 3 way up in the air, and given Sakurai's previous statements, Nintendo will most likely not consider making a 3rd Fighter Pass. Never say never is why this is 1%, but it's better to get your hopes up on something that could happen than anticipate something that might not.
Want: 100%
Vol 2 currently has 3 characters left to unveil, and there's more than 3 characters I want in Smash. Another Fighter Pass means more characters, and with more characters, it keeps my interests in Ultimate going. It also means characters I want in Smash who aren't in it yet could potentially be DLC once again. Personally, I like discussions around the characters being added to Ultimate more than I do actually playing the game itself. From character reveals to the amount of content Sakurai adds with DLC characters, there's something very special about it all that keeps people on their seats. While not every potential candidate for Smash may appeal to me upfront, it's always fun to tune into what Sakurai has to say about them and the franchise they came from. It'll be a long shot if Nintendo greenlights Vol 3, but I'd sure as hell be excited for more DLC even when the waiting periods between Challenger Packs drag. ----------------- Noms:
A Challenger Pack With 2 Fighters x20
The Smash fandom proving itself to be the ultimate group of suckers.
Chance: 1%. I'm on the camp that "while it hasn't truly been confirmed yet, it more or less has" that we are not getting a third volume. I mean, besides the stuff from the horse's mouth itself, there's a few factors that make me believe Volume 2 is truly the end of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. The first one is the game's age. It's three years old, and unless your name is Team Fortress 2, Terraria, or Minecraft, very few notable titles last THAT long much less for a while. Getting support from Nintendo for 3 years in a row? Honestly, it's a goddamn miracle considering what Mario Kart 8 Deluxe got: VR mode. That's it. The next is the price: assuming the $5 per Pack value stays, any future volumes will make the game's DLC cost more than the game itself. That seems like a whole new can of worms, one that reaches much further than the average internet fan. Lastly... I just don't see it. Everything ends eventually, and things are telling me Ultimate's time is coming. There are other issues, like development sustainability, licensing in the case of third parties, and a bunch more issues than that but those are I think the biggest ones in terms of why we probably won't see another one.
If we ARE getting a third volume, we'll know by #10. If #10 passes and it's stated to not be happening, or in my case even left unmentioned, #11 IS the final pack.
Want: 40%. I'd like my favorites sooner than later, thank you very much. On one hand, more chances to get a bunch of new challengers to the series. On the other... you're paying more than $60 for a game that, well, has issues in most regards with the roster being the one place of perfection(?). That's not something I'm into. But the idea of Smash reaching 100 numbered fighters in one game, I mean why get so close to the big triple digits and stop right there? That's appealing to me. But that price really takes a big bite out of that IMO.
TF2 rep x max. No predictions... because we're doing predictions tomorrow.
Do you want more content in Smash Ultimate? Obviously. I want them to take Smash Ultimate to the moon since were never getting something like this again. And on a personal note I've enjoyed what we've gotten from each pack even in ways I never imagined. Its probably unlikely though and I can definitely see how COVID may have led to that decision completely. But I hope they changed their mind.
Fighters Pass the Third
Chance: 5%
Smash really is a gravy train for Nintendo. It's fanbase will buy anyone that comes out for the sake of the full roster and it pretty much kept Nintendo going during the Wii U era with Amiibo sales...
...so yeah I can see it happening, but at the same time they have to stop at some point. Sakurai needs a rest and Smash, whilst a huge seller, hasn't sold as many copies as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and yet there's no DLC for that.
There's also that they need to factor in the overall cost for the entire roster and stop before it gets too ridiculous.
Want: 20%
I'd love my most wanteds but I have serious doubts they'd be added even in a hypothetical Fighters Pass 3 with such heavy focus on third parties killing off any hope for Captain Toad, Impa, Bandana Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong or god help me, Meowth, who faces issues with the Pokémon company only shilling for new gens in Smash anyway.
Heck even my most wanted third parties face a lot of struggle such as any Valve rep(no relationship really with Nintendo), Spyro(no way is he getting in before Crash), Chris Redfield (killed by a spirit event), Agumon(doubtful Digimon would be considered at all), Tails(Mii outfit) or Bomberman(Mii outfit AND Assist Trophy).
At this point I feel like I don't really have anything to look forward to when it comes to new Fighters. I'd have more luck with a clean slate in the follow up to Ultimate.
Perhaps if this was Smash For Wii U/3DS I'd at least be desperate to keep the game alive, but the Switch has so many other titles to enjoy and more to offer than just Smash Bros. I find myself enjoying talking about Smash more than I do actually playing Ultimate.
I'd rather keep saving my money and buy some other games on Switch at this point to be brutally honest like No More Heroes 3, 3D World + Bowser's Fury and Monster Hunter Rise than a third fighters pass.
Third Fighter's Pass
Chance: 50%
It's entirely possible that Nintendo will want more characters for more $$$. My doubts come from Sakurai stating that this will be the final pass along with the fact that it's been enough years that it'd seem like a sensible point to stop. At the same time, the Switch has been a much more reliable success than the Wii U; Nintendo might stick with this system for much longer than their previous consoles, which would lead to Ultimate being supported for a much longer time, and would make a third pass more likely. Want: 50%
I've gotten basically everything I could out of Ultimate's roster, with only the deepest cuts and most out-there unrealistic characters not being playable yet, so a third pass will probably just be more of the same speculation and no reveals that make me jump out of my seat. There's also the fact that Ultimate has been the most barebones entry so far in regards to actual ways to play, so I wouldn't be sad to see it be finished already. I'm fine with cool new fighters are being added regularly, but it isn't worth too much of my time and money to at this point. I guess I'm just mostly indifferent to the idea.
FP3 Chance: 20%
This is a tricky one. On one hand, we got Sakurai himself saying there's no further plans, on the other, he's said similar things during Smash 4, where it turned out to be false.
Nintendo's track record with DLC support is not the greatest, which does make the prospects grim. Smash is a special case though, so who knows. I will say having 6 characters in this pass does not seem like a good sign however. It seems like an effort to cram that last bit of content in before wrapping up.
Want: 100%
I mean, of course. A crossover like this happens once in a lifetime, I want it to go as far as possible. The only reason I could see for not wanting this is because you want a new Smash game. While I can emphatize with that, as Ultimate is definitely lacking in a few departments; a lot of the issues could be relatively easily fixed. Now, I don't count on that to happen, but the game is still enjoyable. Even so, I like having all these characters available, and a new Smash game wouldn't have that.
Today is the last fixed schedule day. Predict what the rest of FP2 will be. Predict the three characters left and give a paragraph for each to why to get the double noms. Up to 30 are available today.
Crash - I'm confident we will get at least one more big character and I think an easy prediction is Crash. He's got everything you would want in a Smash candidate. And the fact that the most recent game isn't currently on the Switch isn't a big deal. The N. Sane trilogy and CTR Nitro Fueled are on the Switch. Nintendo recognized Crash as a gaming icon twice and Crash has an audience in Japan. And before anyone cites Activision as an obstacle, I want you to take a look at this article where Activision initiated the exclusive Nintendo content in Skylanders. Plus we got another E3 left and Crash is one of those characters that would be perfect for a reveal there. Simply put, Crash has a lot of things going for him and the arguments against him are honestly weak. And that's what makes him a strong candidate.
Arle Nadja - I think it's safe to say that we won't get 4 big characters in one pass. It could happen, but I'm leaning on CP10 (Or CP9 if they want to switch the characters around so the big one gets revealed at E3 time) being smaller than the other third parties. And what's a franchise that has gained traction in the West and is owned by a company that is close to Nintendo? Puyo Puyo. I keep bringing up how they chose the original Puyo Puyo to be on the Switch online service rather than Kirby's Avalanche or Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine and it makes a lot of sense. Sega has been pushing the series and Nintendo has been supportive of it. Puyo Puyo Tetris has really helped introduce western audiences to Puyo Puyo and the series has remained popular in Japan for many years ever since the original came out. And it has a legacy, becoming one of the most popular puzzle series throughout the world. I also think that Arle is Sega's frontrunner. I don't think Kiryu is likely because of there being no plans to make any Yakuza games for the Switch and the "no beating up women" interview. As for Eggman, he is definitely the runner-up. But the reality is that people keep predicting characters who are similar to the previous character and that has not held up for this pass so far. Thus, Arle is one of my predictions.
Rex - He fits perfectly as the "underwhelming, first party, final pick" that a lot of people, including me, are predicting. I also think that he is the most likely character overall. To this day, Nintendo still advertises Xenoblade 2 and as most of you probably already know, Sakurai pointed out both ARMS and Xenoblade 2 as the two games that missed out on the base roster due to poor timing, and one of those are now in. It's clear that with Min Min and Sephiroth, Nintendo has interest in expanding upon series already represented in Smash and Xenoblade 2 still has a lot of missing content. Not to mention Rex is heavily requested in Japan and Xenoblade is an ever-growing series so it makes a lot of sense for Nintendo to give the series another rep. Plus I'm running out of games that we know of that Nintendo could shill, like maybe Sylux for Metroid Prime 4 and a couple other examples. Maybe in the future I could change this spot, but for now Rex stays in it comfortably.
Today is the last fixed schedule day. Predict what the rest of FP2 will be. Predict the three characters left and give a paragraph for each to why to get the double noms. Up to 30 are available today.
1. Ryu Hayabusa
We're supposed to be predicting 3, but honestly speaking, Hayabusa is really the only pick I have a good deal of confidence in. He just hits all the buttons for a Smash inclusion. I'm not gonna pretend he's the massively popular or well known character that other people seem to think he is, but he's recognizable enough. He's similar to Terry in this regard. He has a very long legacy, which spans across 2 franchises which are both at least semi-well known (in that most gamers have at least heard of them), and the start of the Legacy began on the NES alongside Castlevania and Metroid and other such names that already are in Smash, so him standing beside those characters just feels right. There are (2) other ninja characters already in Smash, but Ryu is visually distinct from both of them and could definitely gather a moveset from all his games that is completely unique from them and fun to play. To me, in terms of the likeliness of potential Smash Newcomers, Hayabusa stands head and shoulders above the rest.
2. Arle Nadja
If you told me I'd put this character on my most likely list a year or two ago, I'd have called you crazy. At the time, I considered her a "literally who?" type of character. What pretty much still remains her biggest weakness is - she's rather unknown in the west. But man I really do feel Sega has been pushing her here. Puyo Puyo Tetris was actually a relatively massive success in the west, and she was already a big well known character in Japan. She's adorable, would have a unique moveset, fits the Smash aesthetic really well, and also has the potential to bring with her more Tetris content, which is sorely lacking in Smash considering how gigantic the game is in terms of gaming history. I don't really put that much stock in the whole, one rep per company thing, but Sega is due for another one if such a rule does exist, and as much as it pains me to admit, she probably has Kazuma Kiryu beat.
3. Dante
Speaking plainly, this is the pick I'm the least confident about. I just have the feeling we're going to get something from Capcom. If not for that Spirit event we got, I would've 100% put Jill Valentine here instead. But, as I actually do believe that recent spirit events deconfirm, that leaves Dante, Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, or Chun-Li. Monster Hunter to many seems like the most likely, as the series is being pushed like crazy since the massive success of Monster Hunter World. But the thing is, we already have monster hunter content in Smash, and I feel if Sakurai wanted the hunters to be in the game they would've just come alongside Rathalos. Chun-Li also is a good choice, pretty much being the video game female all-star, but I feel like having the same fighting game gimmick as the shotos and Terry would hold her back, as Sakurai really cares about making dlc characters unique. On top of that, the decision to include Min-Min over other potential ARMs fighters in CP6, a character who shares a lot of the same themes as Chun-Li, makes me think that Chun-Li isn't coming. Phoenix is definitely recognizable, at the very least as a common meme due to his objection catchphrase, but really his games did not sell that well which I legitimately think is a pre-requisite for a character like him to get into Smash.
So that leaves Dante as the Capcom Rep. He's got a lot of things going for him. He's visually distinct, cool while still fitting into the general smash aesthetic, is the long-running protagonist of his rather long-running and still relevant franchise, and has a decently large fanbase. If we're getting another Capcom Rep (and I think we are), I would place my bet on Dante.
Honorable Mentions:
Crash Bandicoot - He definitely has a chance, but I don't think we're getting another Western Rep
Master Chief - Best chances of any western character imo, but still Western
Rex & Pyrrha - If we're getting another Nintendo IP, Rex will be the one. I just feel he's kind of a boring pick and didn't want to write a full paragraph for him
Crash Bandicoot: This dude has to be a total no brainer, in more ways than one. Not just because of that Activision roadmap leak, not just because of Activision's past with Nintendo because of Skylanders, but because Nintendo recognizes him as a gaming icon, and has brought that fact up twice. Mario and Sonic are in the game already and Crash would round off the trifecta of the 90s. With Crash N. Sane and Nitro-Fueled also on Switch, this gives Crash a bigger audience worldwide, too. He's also mighty popular in Japan, too, even having a whole song well-known in Japan dedicated to him.
Reimu Hakurei: Touhou Project is an absolute cultural mega titan in Japan, basically being indie gaming's own Dragon Quest over there. ZUN has said time and again that he'd love to see Reimu in Smash Bros, and he's been recently pushing to expand Touhou's popularity with the likes of Sanrio and mobile games like Touhou Danmaku Kagura, having Touhou in Smash would fall in line with this desire for expanding popularity. Furthermore, while admittedly it was most certainly not Touhou, SHMUPs, in general, were what put Sakurai in the game development business in the first place, heck, in most entries of the series, Sakurai has had shoot-em-up sections for the credits.
Buzzwole: Rounding this off is Buzzwole, which I'm sure would be a controversial first-party finale not just because of SwSh, but also because we already have, like, 10 Pokemon already if we count Pokemon Trainer separately. But here's the thing: Ultra Beasts are only represented through Spirits (Nihilego, Necrozma, Solgaleo, and Lunala), and Nintendo has pushed them in the past: they added four new Ultra Beasts with USUM, Gen 7's plot revolved around the Ultra Beasts, and they were popular enough to come back for the Crown Tundra DLC. Now you may probably think Pheromosa or Nihilego would be better, but honestly, Buzzwole's biology makes her unique already, being a buff mosquito who gets stronger by drinking blood. And yes, I'm calling Buzzwole a she because, in biology, female mosquitos are the ones that bite you. Buzzwole being an Ultra Beast also makes her unique by default, and I'm sure Sakurai would see some potential in something like that.
well I can believe Rex could be one cause i buy into the whole theory about him. ive been of the belief that nintendo would be suggesting their big switch titles for characters like arms and three houses. and sakurai did say that both XC2 and arms were a little late for the base roster, granted that doesnt mean he would have included them if he could have but then why mention those two out of everything else? i might be forgetting a couple details. so the way i see it, its a matter of would they do it and i think they would.
i think the other two will be 3rd parties so im gonna suggest a second sonic character. either tails or eggman who are the natural next choices, granted tails has a mii costume which was seemingly decided on before FP2 was even green lit so i doubt it means anything. sonic is still the only character whose inclusion caused a smash game to be delayed so i feel another sonic character is more a matter of when rather than if.
number three errm well i cant get over that paranoid voice that tells me itll be dante. theres already a lot of other characters i cant stand in smash, mewtwo, bayo, daisy etc, that ive just come to expect characters i dont like. plus hes popular for some reason and i feel like theres another capcom character has a good shot regardless. but yeah its mostly just the pessimism that makes me think this.
now to sit back and wait for me to be proven wrong about all but the last. im gonna wait until i can be bothered counting how many nomes ive earned until the new schedule is revealed before i make my noms
Phoenix is definitely recognizable, at the very least as a common meme due to his objection catchphrase, but really his games did not sell that well which I legitimately think is a pre-requisite for a character like him to get into Smash.
~5 Sentences, the usual amount. If you want go as long as you want though to explain your post. Heck, I am doing a few honorable mentions and stuff to keep an eye on as a whole
1. For the spot up next I feel like we're going to see a company with content in Smash already but 0 DLC fighters get one at long last. The main competitors for the spot feel like Capcom, Ubisoft, Namco, and Tecmo. I'm just going to pre-emptively cut Bandi Namco because they seemingly just don't care about adding their own characters. I'm not feeling so hot on Ubisoft after the Assassins Creed mii costume that showed up as well but I suppose it's not impossible either. They still have some solid choices there from outside the AC series though, with Far Cry being huge(and shockingly, FC5 did pretty well in Japan). I guess Rayman exists too but I'm still not really sold on him being a big contender for Smash anymore. So that leaves just Capcom and Tecmo and the characters I feel like are the top picks from them at the moment, Phoenix Wright and Ryu Hayabusa. There's not a ton of negatives to either choice tbh. Both are pretty well known. Both have a solid history with Nintendo. Both seemingly have plans coming up soon. Major difference between the 2 is basically that Ace Attorney is more niche than Ninja Gaiden, however Capcom already has a number of characters in Smash. It's pretty even between the 2 in my head right now but I think I lean towards Phoenix Wright since I think already having a company repped with a playable fighter is a tough barrier to cross. If I had to rank the contenders I mentioned though I'd go with:
Phoenix Wright
Ryu Hayabusa
Some sort of Far Cry rep(distant 3rd place behind the other 2 though)
2. For spot 5 in the pass I still think Ahri from League of Legends is very likely. I've spelled it out a ton in the past but I'll do it again because I really think LoL as a whole should get more buzz for Smash. First, there's the fact that Tencent and Nintendo are working together on a lot of projects that's target market is China, which as we all know contains a solid amount of people. The Pokemon MOBA game is to promote the series there. There's also the Switch in China campaign, which is a big deal for very obvious reasons I feel like I don't need to spell out. While I believe Smash still hasn't been released there yet(no idea how to find that out), there is no doubt in my mind that Smash Ultimate will eventually end up there with it being the best selling game in the consoles history. A lot of the DLC has been targeted to certain regions as well, so it feels inevitable that they'll want to target China with a DLC pick. With how big League of Legends is there it's almost a perfect pick if you want to draw from that demo. And really, League is popular in a lot of places in the west and basically the the entire east outside of well... Japan. Not sure how that'll effect anything but it is a possible complication. Another huge point in Ahri's favor is that League of Legends spin off games are starting to come out on the switch. Ruined King is due out this year and there's another game in the works that I'm blanking on that's planned for console release as well. That knocks down the barrier of having nothing on Nintendo consoles for LoL and with Ahri being featured in that game as well as being one of the most popular characters in the actual game itself I think she's the stand out for a series that has a lot going for it.
3. For the final spot I still think we're getting something like a "shill" pick. Who that'll be is a really good question still since we don't have much on Nintendo's 1st party line up for the year yet outside of BOTW2. Given that Age of Calamity just got a spirit event though that could even be considered in jeopardy. Trying to think of which major fist party series we haven't heard from in a while isn't giving me much to work with either. For now I'll stick with BOTW Zelda since we have nothing else to really work with at the moment. I suppose it's not impossible the shill slot goes to a 3rd party game like Monster Hunter or the likes but for now I'm going to stick with it being a 1st party series. Obviously this one will be subject to change as time moves on still but I think a good target window for this spot in the DLC is whatever releases we get from about March to August.
HMs:
Chun Li - Honestly she fits perfectly into the first category. Only issue I have here is that there's already a ton of Street Fighter content in the game and triple dipping a series feels like a lot when there's a ton of other Capcom characters to pick from
Arle and Eggman - Sharing a spot here because they're both well known and well requested characters from Sega. It's probably one of them if we get another rep from that company and if I'm wrong on any of my predictions one of these 2 getting in are the ones I think will be the ones to steal a bid.
Crash and Rex - Another share here. Think these 2 are still pretty likely. Could have easily given them the last 2 spots. Partially left them off so I could talk about characters other people werent going to. There isn't a ton going against the 2 of them though and while I'm not listing them as official predictions I would not be shocked at all if they joined.
Some wild **** nobody is thinking of - Ok, this one's a cop out and a pretty bad one at that. It it always feels like we've narrowed down the field and then all of a sudden Sakurai shows us someone that changes everything. I don't even have any examples here but I'm willing to bet it's possible again
Master Chief - Probably not on this one but we've gotten a Microsoft rep at every E3 reveal and there's one more to go. Not impossible but Im not betting on it
Well here we are, FP2. Until FP10 is shown, we likely won't do predictions like this again. So I might as well say my piece now and then rest.
I will be blunt on this part. I expect two more third parties at least and something smaller to end the pass. It could be a shill choice or a first party character. It could also end up being a smaller third party. While our precedent for Smash DLC is not the strongest, we do have Smash 4 and FP1 to base ourselves off of. FP1 ended with Bayo and Corrin, FP1 Ended with Byleth. At the very least, it seems that this sort of holds. So, expect Smash DLC for this pass to not end with a bang but with something smaller. In terms of hype third parties, I will be honest with you they could make basically any third party hype so long as they push it right. They turned Terry into a hype choice, so honestly sky's the limit so long as you have a bit of a legacy. So if you wanted to boil my predictions down, two third parties that have at least a reasonably big history, one smaller third party or first party. That being said, let's dive right in.
FP2 Predictions
Crash Bandicoot: To be honest, this is the character I am the most confident in right now. Really, Crash just has a ton going for him as I explained on his day. He hits the perfect sweet spot for a Western rep since he is super popular in the West while not being dead in Japan. He is super relevant right now. He is a huge icon. Really, the main argument against him is Activision being hard to work with (which really, we got Stalinist Konami, Notoriously Difficult Square, and Microsoft in on this game). Really, Crash just seems like the arguably safest third party to bet on right now. Admittingly, I am a bit biased here since I would love to see Crash, but honestly, he really is one of the strongest candidates to get in right now in my eyes. If you want to read more, check out my post on his day last time and see more.
Ryu Hayabusa: The other safe third party. Look, Ryu’s stock in terms of speculation really significantly rose this game. KT is super close with Nintendo, to the point Nintendo let them handle Fire Emblem and Zelda twice each. He is an iconic character from the NES and he did do well for himself in the modern era. It helps that he has been leaked to hell and back. Honestly, one of the single likeliest characters overall. There is a reason he stole the crown for Chance this time after all. While this is certainly leaning a but too much on the safe side with him and Crash, I think that at the very least it is a pattern of sorts of what to expect: two third parties left that will generate a decent amount of hype for the game.
Rex: Look, we likely will get one first party or something smaller towards the end as this pass winds down. And honestly, Rex is a good candidate for that. I know a lot of people here would disagree, but honestly while Rex is popular in Japan, he would fall more in line with Byleth or Corrin in terms of the amount of hype he would bring to Smash overall compared to huge third parties. His Mii costume some will say disqualifies him was basically made for base game. Case in point, you could get it in Smash Ultimate day one. He’s popular in Japan as I said, and XC2 is clearly a big game for the Switch. While I may not view him as a lock anymore, it honestly is one of the easiest choices for DLC I can think of for this category. It also helps that, well, most of the other super likely “boring first party” choices have been locked away with Spirit events. Zelda got spirited with its AoC event. Astral Chain and Ring Fit both got pushed away from this pass due to spirit events. Heck, even pokemon got a spirit event after the pass was chosen. If you want a popular first party that does represent current Nintendo like Min Min or Byleth, Rex just makes a ton of sense.
Honorable Mentions
Lloyd Irving: Honestly while Velvet and Yuri make sense, I think due to ToS having a soft spot for Smash fans it has to be Lloyd. Honestly might have slotted him in but the number of old Mii costumes coming back has me spooked. Tales is a long running franchise and ToS in particular gets a lot of love from Smash fans. Heck, even Sakurai said in an old interview if a Tales rep was in Smash it has to be Lloyd. If I was not spooked by Mii Costumes he might have made it in over Hayabusa or Crash.
Adol Christin: A choice that makes a ton of sense and honestly was the final cut I made from my list. Simply put, while Adol makes sense, the other three above him made more sense to me. Easily a character that is underrated as a whole (or at least used to be), but not a frontrunner in my eyes.
Phoenix Wright: Honestly PW makes a ton of sense to me except for the Capcom leak. I am surprised that nothing Smash related was in there when a ton of stuff was, which makes me a tad skeptical. Granted, we do not know everything in it, but it knocked Phoenix down enough for me to not make it onto my final predictions. Still makes a ton of sense and one I can see happening.
Chun Li: Most of what I said for Phoenix applies here. Makes a ton of sense, but I am skeptical of another Capcom rep rn. She is one of the most iconic characters not in smash, and tbh Chun Li makes a ton of sense to be added, even if that would be triple dipping into Street Fighter at this point. There is a wide swath of content that could be repped beyond SF2, which Ryu and Ken particularly represent from the songs in the game down to their movesets, so there’s plenty more stuff to choose from.
Monster Hunter: Some of my skepticism for Capcom getting another rep drips into here, but now with returning Mii Costume stuff to boot. Honestly up there for hardest and weirdest stuff to speculate on. MH makes a ton of sense to reveal in March with the release of Rise. Based on Nintendo’s financial reports, they are expecting Rise to do well for itself in March. While we could get MH later, I personally think it makes the most sense to push it around when Rise comes out. We have the precedent for that with Hero and DQXI S. Something reasonably likely, but my current capcom speculation holds me back.
League of Legends Rep: Full disclosure, I do not like league. MOBAs have never been my thing. But I can not deny how huge of a game it is. It makes sense for it to be added to Smash based on its size and worldwide popularity and is certainly something that is not really talked about outside of people who ironically do not like league and bring it up as a boogeyman candidate. Regardless, I think League has a decent shot of actually appearing, but not enough to make it onto my personal predictions. If I had to guess the character, there are a few directions you could go. A lot of people would probably say one of the original champions, but tbh any popular League rep would work.
Sol Badguy: I have been saying with Arc Sys spirits in the game and no other content in sight Sol Badguy is something to consider. I at one point impulsively gave him an astronomically high score that was super reactionary. He is certainly more of a sleeper pick that I would not exactly be surprised by, but I know a lot of the community will act like was a massive surprise. While you could do Ragna instead as an Arc Sys rep, Blazblue has ended while Guilty Gear is older and is getting more stuff soon, making me lean in that direction.
Arle Nadja: This wag going to be an Eggman slot, but I am personally struggling to see them add another huge villain in the same pass as Sephiroth, even if the two could not be more different. Arle has an edge of repping something different in terms of a puzzle franchise, one that has released plenty of games on the Switch. Sega is pretty loyal to Nintendo which helps her out too. It also helps that, well, the rest of Sega’s competition to me seems pretty weak. I could talk about Billy Hatcher, Beat, or what have you, but their franchises are unfortunately dormant. Monkey ball is too (though minor tangent but really most of the games suck which is a shame. Only play 1, 2, Deluxe, and Banana Splitz on the Vita the rest are mediocre at best)…for now at least. Yakuza is the other name I see tossed around a lot, but I think Kiryu after those interviews is dead. There is really only one other character that imo I would put stock in outside of Eggman and Arle from Sega…
Keep an eye on if we do get a FP3:
Officer Howard: If we do get an FP3, Officer Howard shoots up to be one of the likeliest characters in my eyes. Astral Chain did well, Nintendo now has full control over the IP. While the Spirit event damns them for this pass due to the timing, I doubt that they would let a spirit event damn Astral Chain for the next pass as well, especially when that pass likely would not have been decided at that point. Astral Chain sold pretty well for a new IP. Officer Howard with their legions offers a ton of moveset potential that is begging to be utilized.
Ring Fit: The other big first party on the switch. Based of Nintendo’s financial reports, this thing sold close to 8 million copies, which is a big deal. While the spirit event hurts it for this pass, if we get a Pass 3 Ring Fit suddenly looks a lot more viable. Being one of those big switch success stories for new Ips like Astral Chain and Arms is something to consider. If this and Officer Howard do not show up as DLC in a wave 3, expect them in the next smash.
Gen 8 Pokemon: Again, Spirit event likely hurts it this pass, but next pass if Gen 9 is not looming it makes a ton of sense. If I had to bet on three, Cinderace Toxtricity Dragapult. Cinderace is popular enough, has a gigantimax form, and is Goh’s main in the anime. Toxtricity is second on the popularity poll, has a gigantimax form, and has a easy to work with body to boot while not being a third fire starter. Dragapult is the most popular gen 8 pokemon which makes me consider it as well. Gun to my head, I would bet on Toxtricity at the end of the day nowadays, but it could be anyone, even Dracovish.
Neku Sakuraba: This is one that I genuinely see as likely if we get another pass. Square seems to like doing DLC, and tbh Neku is probably the front runner if they want another character. TWEWY is back in a big way, and it has a strong Nintendo association. Combine that with Geno being out of the running and this one seems likely to me. Really, Square’s competition this point onward gets…weird. You could do Lara Croft, but she is exponentially more popular in the West than in Japan. Chrono’s series is dead. Nier Automota is getting older by the day and it still does not have a switch port. Bravely Default imo is the strongest competition, but with Seph coming now if it gets a shill rep it comes next pass…at least a year later. While there are plenty of other franchises to look at, TWEWY at least has the edge of being pushed by square now, so it getting a push in terms of marketing makes sense.
SMTV Rep: Yep, the other Sega rep I was hinting at. Simply put, Nintendo and Sega have been pushing SMT V being a Nintendo thing and SMT being associated with Nintendo hard the past, god how long since Awakening and SMT IV came out? SMT V at the very least seems like when it comes out will be one of those big games Nintendo promotes that is an exclusive. I could easily see SMT V getting a shill rep when that happens. This could happen this year but I still do not believe SMT V is coming out until it does. If it does release I could see SMT V being our last character and it being a shill choice for it, but until then who knows.
Wild Card: 5chan rumor
Look, rumors like this are often wrong. A broken clock does ring right twice a day. But getting Sephiroth right honestly is not something to throw away for something that openly is saying what the last 4 characters are. While Seph is a big name, he was certainly not in Smash speculation. Heck, I made his support thread and I was one of the few people saying he had an outside shot. Predicting Seph is not an easy prediction. Granted, this rumor likely will be false too, but I have been saying for a while to people to keep an eye on it. For anyone that has not seen the 5chan rumor and wishes to not be spoiled, I have put it and my thoughts on it in the spoiler part below.
Crash Bandicoot
Reimu
KOS MOS
I already talked on why Crash is likely, but I can at least mention the five year plan here. While the legitimacy of the plan is sometimes questioned, it seems given the information prominent activision leakers have that there is indeed a five year plan for crash, and given what we got this lines up. This at least suggest Activision is down to play ball.
Reimu I chose to talk about here since imo she is a dark horse choice. Honestly, she is the most likely indie by a country mile due to two key reasons: location and legacy. Reimu is a Japanese franchise. While I do not think Western characters are impossible, I am saying that Crash is likely, it is an uphill battle. This hill gets higher for indies, who have to cross the ocean and get popular in Japan as well if they start in the West. Shovel Knight and Hollow Knight are two of the bigger success stories on this front, but it is undeniable that a small franchise starting out might have issues being popular overseas. Reimu subverts that in a great way. The other thing is Touhou is a super long running franchise. Combine that with ZUN being easy as heck to work with and she makes decent sense so long as you are ok with a character that appeals to one market much harder than even Hero did. The Doujin leak also can be used as circumstantial evidence, which since I mentioned the 5 Year Plan leak is something worth noting in my eyes.
KOS MOS I talked about on her day, but I will summarize here. She is easily the least likely part of this leak and the biggest part of me doubting it. Xenosaga, while a good RPG franchise, is small and over. It is not getting remasters at least for now, and it is stuck on the PS2. Her saving grace is she is Monolith Soft’s baby. Now, Monolith certainly has been one of Nintendo’s golden children lately, so if they begged it is possible, but KOS MOS is certainly a left field pick if there ever was one…which in the context of this pass helps her a smidge. She fills the niche that Bayonetta, Byleth, and Corrin filled: the smaller finale. While we have seen historically that this tends to be a first party rep, it could be something like a smaller third party. In this one scenario I think her inclusion makes more sense at this point, but take it with a huge grain of salt.
Will this come true? Honestly, probably not. Text leaks like this are usually dead very fast. This leak might be dead for the next character if it isn’t exactly one of these three. But in the end, this is something that I can at least say is worth looking into. For now, I give it about a 3-5% chance of being right, but if it gets another right I will look at it even harder.
This was a fun write up to make, here's hoping that the next three characters are a ton of fun.
Since Neku got locked in, Haggar x 30. Brainstorming who to nominate next, probably gonna hop on the Contra train or I'll do something nice to get to gush about Tomba or Valkryie Profile or something.
Rex:
Probably the most likely first party rep. Xenoblade should get another fighter, and if it’s anyone, it’s Rex. Elma doesn’t really have a shot unless XCX gets a Switch enhanced port, and KOS-MOS is Namco. Although, I can see Elma getting a Mii Costume.
If Spirit Events deconfirm, he is the most likely first party. Paper Mario, Impa, Gen 8 Pokemon, all got Spirit Events. And if ARMS got a character, so can Xenoblade 2.
Crash:
I’m going to be honest. I’ve been thinking Crash is becoming less likely. It may simply be too late, and Crash 4 only released a month or two ago. Eggman is definitely the next best option. Plus, he is definitely worthy of E3 in June. But I’m still thinking Crash can happen. I’m just not as confident.
Hayabusa:
He’s been thrown around for so long, and he seems pretty cool. I’d be open to him in Smash, and he could have a cool moveset.
Really hard to nail this down to just three characters! So I'll go for three specific kinds of characters and provide some examples of each!
Smaller Third Party (Phoenix Wright, Prince of All Cosmos, Arle Nadja, etc): Amiibo Theory holds true for release dates for fighters, so current pacing alongside it tells us that our next Sakurai Presents will be in March. Given that there are no events and that post-Min Min FP2 has shifted the focus back to third parties, I'm expecting at least one more! Along with it being a smaller character, as any remaining bombshells are likely being saved for later. Phoenix Wright feels like a prime choice, with rhe Capcom gigaleak showing that there's plans for the series this year with a potential new game along with localizations of the Great Ace Attorney series, and Capcom HAS promoted new Phoenix Wright games via crossovers before (such as Phoenix's appearence in Taiko no Tatsujin: Dokodon! Mystery Adventure as a battle partner, along with a medley of his pursuit themes as a playable track, to promote Spirit of Justice), so Phoenix could very well be included to promote the new game (though in typical Capcom fashion they'll promote a brand new game with Trilogy content xD). Arle's another good pick, her fanbase growing in the west, but still not quite a "knock your socks off" pick on the level of Steve, Banjo-Kazooie, or Sephiroth despite how requested she is in Japan. She just seems to fit the bill really well. Prince of All Cosmos is more of a personal shill choice but he's a lot like Phoenix and Arle where they're well known and iconic enough to be profitable, but their series would still benefit a ton from a Smash inclusion, ala Terry Bogard. Plus we're still missing Lloyd's Mii Costume and we basically know that all of the costumes are coming back, so we could see him with another Namco rep.
Special mention to Monster Hunter since the possible release date of the next fighter lines up almost perfectly with the release of Rise, but I'm still on the fence, given the base game content and the Mii Costume.
E3 Bombshell, possibly Western (Crash, Dragonborn): The final big bombshell of the pass, even if E3 2021 doesn;t happen it was still planned to be the E3 reveal during negotiations, and it is on pace with march so a big June reveal seems likely. Crash has been gaining more momentum than ever and we could get a Crash 4 on Switch announcement this year! Plus Activision's possible 5-year plans show great interest in getting Crash into the game! Meanwhile negotiations with Bethesda went on for two years, and Travis has shown us that Mii Costumes are a very recent affair, so there's no way Sakurai is walking away with just a Mii Costume. Dragonborn would be Steve levels of Break the Internet, and seems appealing from a Nintendo end given Bethesda's heavy support for the Switch. Not much else to say here, given that it's pretty straightforward! Though given we got Min Min as our "E3" reveal last year, even with delays, does give me some slight doubts.
Gonna give a special mention to the possibility of a first party Banjo-esque pick like Dixie, Dee, or Waluigi! Also to a 2K rep like Booker or Gandhi given that the 2K <3 Nintendo campaign was happening during FP2 negotiations, and 2K was an early supporter of the Switch in the vain of Bethesda!
Predictable First Party Promotional Pick (Rex, God help us if a new Fire Emblem game is announced soon): It's difficult to pin down a pattern given Smash 4's odd DLC format messing with precedents, but I'm really not expecting anyone big or exciting for this slot. Nintendo's track record with first party DLCs (barring Piranha Plant, though he was a base game character slightly delayed) hasn't been very good, with all of them either being unexciting (though it did give ARMS some brief spotlight) or controversial promotional choices. Now, in regards to Rex, he's now too old to be a shill pick and he's got a ton of requests in Japan, so he's aging very well! Though he's heavily speculated by everyone and feels like an obvious Nintendo choice but doesn't seem like an exciting way to end the pass. In general I don't see this being anything big unless they pull a big publicity stunt and make Waluigi the final character. The big problem is that we don't know any potential promotional picks going forward given that there's no new games outside of BoTW2 coming out (and I think a BoTW2 rep is extremely unlikely at this point). Now, there's also the ability to promote DLC but we don't have any announcements for that either. Animal Crossing is creeping farther and farther up the Switch sales leaderboard, so Tom Nook is a decent sleeper pick, though this pass was decided before the game had even come out. Though given it's the last character, if Nintendo reserved the final slot for a first party, they could afford to wait before making the choice, especially since they had almost two years at that point. Either way this is simply too difficult to call!
Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10
[Rerate] Louie x10
Rex: The character I'm the most confident in. Has just about everything going for him ranging from popularity to Sakurai apologizing for his Mii Costume. Min Min also seems like a big boom to Rex's chances since spirits are back and it shows that Sakurai is willing to go back on his word in regards to characters that couldn't make it into the base game. The Xenoblade series becoming much more popular also gives me more hope for Rex. If Rex doesn't make it into Ultimate I will be genuinely shocked.
Crash: One of the most popular Smash requests right now. Had a successful revival that even prompted other remakes of classics like Super Mario 3D All-Stars. Has also gotten a ton of attention in recent years which would make Crash fall just in time for FP2. Plus I can easily see Activision working with Nintendo since they have definitely been wanting to promote Crash a lot recently. Could easily be another character to bring outside attention to the pass like Steve did.
Ryu Hayabusa: Koei Tecmo has been super close with Nintendo for at least the past decade or so. They put Metroid content in the 3DS DoA game, made numerous Dynasty Warrior spin-offs with them (like FE Warriors and the upcoming Age of Calamity), helped with the various Smash trailers, and more. Hayabusa himself has a ton of legacy with Ninja Gaiden being one of the most memorable NES games without any content in Ultimate yet. If we get a Koei Tecmo rep I think they're definitely going for Hayabusa. He's one of those characters that just doesn't really have anything going against him and makes a ton of sense.
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Honorable mentions:
Gen 8 Pokemon: Yeah I still have this looming suspicion that this is going to happen. Gen 8 getting zero content through Ultimate's lifespan outside of that measly spirit event feels so weird. The game has been super successful (and was obviously going to be a hit regardless of Dexit) that it's hard to see Nintendo not adding at least some additional Sword/Shield content into Ultimate.
Phoenix Wright: Long history with Nintendo and is going to be having a great anniversary year if the Capcom leaks are to be believed. Of all the Capcom reps, Phoenix is the one I'm the most confident in.
Lloyd: Tales is popular and I think Lloyd is definitely the Namco frontrunner. Only real concern is whether or not his Mii Costume will return.
Monster Hunter: MH has quickly become one of Monster Hunters biggest series and Nintendo has definitely been promoting Rise as one of their big games for early 2021. Like with Lloyd though, they also have a big bane in the form of their SSB4 costumes making a comeback.
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Monokuma chance prediction: 9.04%
Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x20
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE
Day 571: Monokuma (Danganronpa)
Day 572: Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms
Day 573: Qbby (BoxBoy!)
Day 574: Marina Liteyears (Mischief Makers)
Day 576: Neku (The Works Ends with You)
Day 577: Concept: Among Us character Day 578: Beat (Jet Set Radio)
After a couple of shakey days for the top seven, we had no surprises on the last one. The only change from yesterday is that Among Us and Beat switched places. Monokuma managed to stay in first place for the entire duration of the fixed schedule, kudos to Mr. Cchocolatejr9
for that achievement!
The new top seven consists of Mii Costume: Madeline, Henry Stickmin, A 4X strategy rep, Team Fortress 2 rep, Velvet Crowe, Crazy Dave, and John Marston.
Mii Costume: Madeline x325
Henry Stickmin x325
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x285
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x275
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x270
Crazy Dave x260
John Marston x255
250 - 201
Worms x245
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x222
200 - 151
Tetra x200
Mike Haggar x195
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x192
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x185 Concept: Far Cry rep x184
Zagreus x175
Excitebiker x165
Agent 47 x165
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x165
150 - 101
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x150
Riptor x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Estelle Bright x130
Billy & Jimmy Lee x130
Boss: Rayquaza x125
Stage: Bowser's Castle x122
Kaede Akamatsu x120
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x120
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Senator Armstrong x110
Trevor Philips x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
100 - 51
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x95
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x95
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x85 Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League repx75
Rallen (Spectrobes) x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x61
Ghirahim x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
50 - 25
Stage: Tetris x50
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Concept: From Software rep x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Under 25
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
[Rerate] Louie x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Firebrand x1
Trevor Philips, Billy & Jimmy Lee, and Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters brawl their way past 100 noms.
Challenger approaching! It's a rerate of Elma, with 5 noms.
I'm flatout 99% certain Dante's coming solely because of that Switch port of 3, why make a brand new definitive edition that after a year has no signs of heading to any other system, especially when Dante's fandemand kept growing over time to the point there's a decent chance he was popular when the second pass was being decided
Adol the Red
We all know about Adol's history so I'll spare the details as I'm really not in the mood to write, but Adol's got a lot of underdog vibes to him as he feels like the kind of character who'd get included
Reimu Hakurei
The REAL queen of indies thank you very much, Touhou's insanely huge and I'm convinced all the flatout false arguments used against her such as "She's a literal who" or "The Switch games I can buy in Gamestop don't count as Nintendo appearances" are made out of fear of the possibility she's getting in
To clarify, I'm not calling Phoenix a meme pick. I'm saying he's literally known from his memes. He's one of my most wanted, if not my most wanted character.
It gets harder and harder to pin this down every time, but it's always fun to give it a shot anyway.
Some general things I want to mention, I think it's reasonable to assume that we've blown most of our MAJOR reveals by now. We may have one more in store for E3, but Steve and Sephiroth were our gangbuster pass-selling DLC picks and, if FP1 is anything to go by, we'll see these character choices cool down a little bit moving forward and maybe take some risks. This is one of the major reasons why I believe your mega hype picks are pretty much running out of time.
1) RYU HAYABUSA
I mean... come on, what is there to say that hasn't been said already? The most basic, stale bread pick for FP2, but it's for good reason. It's not something I like to say lightly, but Hayabusa is a character who has everything in the world going for him. Koei Tecmo is hands down Nintendo's closest partner without a character on the roster, and their lack of content beyond spirits that are not even fully owned by them (Fatal Frame, Age of Calamity) continues to be suspicious. Ninja Gaiden is a series that has a lot of history both as an influential and beloved series and also as a series with heavy ties to classic Nintendo a la Mega Man or Castlevania.
But on top of this, I imagine Hayabusa would be a cheap grab not unlike Terry, and a bit more of a lowkey choice given Ninja Gaiden's dormancy and somewhat passive but passionate fan community. It's kinda easy to forget that, since Hayabusa has been so prominent in the Smash community, but he's not really a "popular" choice in the same way other frequent characters like Crash or Dante are. He just makes sense, so he continues to be a part of the conversation. If I could put money down on one character it'd still be Hayabusa, I'd be more surprised if he isn't here.
2) CHUN-LI
Time to grow some chops and take a firm stance on something a little more controversial. I'll be honest, I'm still a bit more confident in the character I'm going to give an honorable mention to after this, but Chun-Li is a character who I've come to both want and expect on principle. While everyone is fixated on this idea of reps and how much content this or that series already has, Chun-Li is a character who I feel stands completely apart from that and sells herself. Like, think about it in a vacuum - Chun-Li being the biggest character Capcom has to offer, one of the more glaring omissions from the roster whose name would surely make headlines and be a big deal for gamers across the world of all ages.
The reservations start to kick in when we take into account arbitrary things like "reps" or how much content SF already has which I'm convinced Nintendo and Sakurai just wouldn't care about at all when you have the opportunity to add someone as significant as Chun-Li to the game. I mean, we should all know by now the community weighs these things a lot heavier than the ones actually deciding the roster. She's a character whose name carries so much weight on its own that her presence enhances the crossover aspect of Smash in and of itself. The leading lady of fighting games (hell, leading lady of video games IMO) taking on the likes of Peach and Samus is pretty "Ultimate" to me.
This, in my opinion, is the precedent Sephiroth has set - not that we're gonna suddenly get a bunch of characters from series with characters already, but that some characters such as Sephiroth and Chun-Li are just that big a deal to sell themselves in spite of whatever their series already have. Smash is about the characters first and foremost, something that I hope people will begin to understand and I feel Chun-Li would properly establish. Kinda contradicts what I was saying before about DLC being a bit more lowkey moving forward but... consider this my E3 pick.
Our Capcom character doesn't need to be Chun-Li, and I'm honestly not convinced it will be either. That's just the one I'm throwing out there for now, but this company has so much to offer that I wouldn't be disappointed either way. In any case, I'm pretty certain Capcom will get something on account of the missing Monster Hunter outfits. At least I hope so, because again, so much content to pull from. It'd feel like a major missed opportunity if they didn't, especially considering...
2.5) MONSTER HUNTER
If they wanna go for a big new series to introduce to Smash (er, the roster) from Capcom, MH is the big pull. If they want to go for a character, Chun-Li is the biggest. This is my firm stance regarding Capcom at the moment and I feel like this mentality is pretty sound. I think MH has a bit more in their favor than Chun-Li at face value. Its presence in base game but fairly scarce content is something that rang true for both ARMS and FF7 thus far, and with Rise on the way it's quite easy to imagine Nintendo holding off on additional content (because face it, additional DLC has been in the cards for longer than they're admitting) or simply pushing for a second helping of MH for quite possibly their biggest release of the year. There's also fishy stuff like MH's music being listed alongside the playable franchises, and the scrapped spirits that still haven't appeared post release.
And even if you believe MH's costumes will return like the others, the costumes don't represent a character but represent generic armor sets you can wear in the games. The character of "Monster Hunter" can debut in Smash and those two costumes may very well return right alongside them!
There isn't really a whole lot working against MH right now, I think its case speaks for itself. It checks off just about all the boxes, but so did Resident Evil before it so... I dunno, they may ultimately feel that Rathalos is enough for now. I teeter on MH and Chun-Li constantly but I'm thinking if we get a Capcom character it will be one of them.
3) ARLE
Look, at this point you may as well shoot for the stars. We're all in the dark about this and while you can make educated guesses to some degree we always end up surprised by the next turn. I wouldn't say Arle is the most shocking character, but she's got somewhat of a Terry-esque feel to her in her massive influence over a particular genre but lesser prominence in the west, and if Hayabusa doesn't already qualify for this role I believe Arle is a natural fit for another character like that.
Puyo 2 was once about as big as Street Fighter 2 in Japanese arcades, and... yeah, I know Sakurai isn't exactly choosing these characters himself but I can't help but imagine he would have been a fan. Puyo has been on nearly every Nintendo console (missing only the Virtual Boy, which it was set to appear on before VB flopped), has had a Nintendo produced reskin featuring Kirby and continues to have a significant presence on the Switch today with Puyo Tetris 1 and 2 and both of the original Puyo games available through Sega AGES collection (and Puyo 2 on NSO). She is incredibly popular and iconic in Japan with Puyo's brand recognition legitimately surpassing that of Sonic the Hedgehog. This series is a big deal.
Alas, none of this means I genuinely expect Arle to appear. But screw it, we got some crazy stuff that I would have never guessed so I may as well put some faith in my most wanted (within reason, sorry Chorus Kids) and hope for the best now. I think she's got a lot going for her, about as much as (or more than!) a number of the other big names within the community, so we'll see what happens. At the very least I think a spirit event is in order.
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To close out my predictions, something that my current lineup doesn't really account for but I think is worth noting... about half of our DLC characters have been "modern" characters from the last decade or so, and I think many of us tend to lean toward more established names and legacy picks and whatnot. I have a hunch that we'll see another character who debuted or really gained traction sometime over the last ten years, but I can't really pinpoint who it will be right now. I'm not as convinced about another Nintendo character as some of you are but I suppose a Xenoblade character would be a safe prediction for this sort of thing. Or maybe something a little more out of left field like Dark Souls, Overwatch or Skyrim content. Who knows? Just food for thought.
I suppose Monster Hunter counts if we see them take heavy inspiration from Gen Ultimate, World, Rise... Yeah let's go with that for now.
Note that these characters are in no particular order:
Rex: Yes, I still think Rex is the most likely first party. Honestly, there's not much I can say that hasn't already been said. He definetly has the popularity to warrant it, especially in Japan. Plus, Min Min, Steve, and possibly even Sephiroth (assuming those rumors are true) prove that Sakurai is willing to go back to old ideas from base game. On top of that, Nintendo is STILL promoting the game, so they have reason to pick him.
One more "big name" third party: I'm keeping this one a bit vague, but I expect one more seller. However, I can't quite decide on who that character would be. If it's another Western rep, then it's Crash or nobody. On the Japan side, you got characters like Ryu Hayabusa, who are rather influential. Problem is, it feels like these characters are TOO expected, so I'm nervous about their actual chances, if that makes any sense.
Another Terry-esque pick: I know it was said that Terry's deal was a one time thing, but I can't help but feel that maybe we can get someone similar enough. Someone who may not make sense at first, but when you stop and think about it, they make ALL the sense. As an example, Falcom has had a major influence on the JRPG genre, so someone like Adol would have every right to be considered. Likewise, Nippon Ichi has more or less embraced the Switch, with Disgaea 6 (the newest game in their most iconic franchise) being Switch-exclusive in the West. For what it's worth, these companies could also be similarly generous in the content department... wink wink
But knowing my trackrecord, there's a chance this is all wrong.
Nominations: [Concept] Disgaea rep x30 (I believe I did the right amount)
Crash Bandicoot: I just feel like the timing is right for him. He's too big of a gaming icon to leave out.
Rex: Like ARMS, XC2 only missed out on the base game due to poor timing. If could get in via Vol. 2, I don't think Rex is too far-fetched.
Lesser-known 3rd party: Real talk, I don't see how people can say 3rd parties can only be gaming icons when we got of all characters in Smash. He's what opened me up to the idea of lesser-known 3rd parties being totally plausible, be it from smaller companies or gaming giants. Two such characters I support are SEGA's Sakura Shinguji and Nihon Falcom's Adol Christin.
Honorable mentions:
Sora: definitely doesn't help his chances, but I wouldn't entirely rule him out. He's legally owned by Disney, so while the most likely thing, sharing a pass with a Square Enix character shouldn't stop him. If not Vol. 2, I can see him for Vol. 3 and also I just love Kingdom Hearts so freaking much
Gen 8 Pokemon: The Spirit Event that happened at SwSh's launch only used 7 out of the 89 new Pokemon introduced in Galar (not even counting the Regional and Gigantamax Forms), and most of them (the starters and box mascots) were grouped together into a single Spirit. I can see plenty of non-Spirited Mons (Cinderace, Toxtricity, etc.) being viable candidates.
Euden: If Nintendo were to have a mobile rep in Smash, I say go for their first mobile game that doesn't have an established IP attatched to it. The game not being available in most of the EU does present a bit of a challenge, but I think that can be rectified with an overhauled Switch version of Dragalia Lost.
I'd keep an eye out for them if we got a Vol. 3
Ring Fit Trainee: Ring Fit Adventure did insanely well, sselling around 8 million copies. Nintendo would likely wanna capitalize on that success by giving the Trainee an invitation.
Officer Howard: Nintendo now owns the Astral Chain IP, meaning they could do whatever they want with it. If they and Sakurai think they can work as a fighter, then a Vol. 3 seems like the perfect opportunity.
Dr. Eggman: Sonic's most heated rival is now eligible thanks to paving the way for multiple reps from the same 3rd party franchise. Not just for non-Echo characters, but for villains as well.
Resident Evil character: This one might be tricky as well due to real firearms among other things, which I assume is the main reason for it being Spirited during Vol. 1. That said, it's still one of Capcom's many cash cows, so I imagine they and Sakurai will wanna find a way to get the series approved for a fighter.
The classic prediction that makes a lot of sense for most. Hayabusa has been predicted to hell and back already, and while I do think he is likely, I do not think that he's nearly as much of a lock as some think. However, credit is given when credit is due, Hayabusa has a lot of things going in his favor, and most of it is actual concrete stuff. One of them is the very good relationship there is between Koei-Tecmo and Nintendo, with them being friends way back from the NES days when Ninja Gaiden and Hayabusa were really big names, to more recently with Hyrule Warriors, FE Warriors, and Hyrule Warirors: Age of Calamity, and yet they still have no character in Smash, despite how Hayabusa is the very obvious choice to represent them as he's one of their oldest, more important and historical, and also still apearing character despite how he gets no new games currently thanks to his apearance in Dead or Alive. Ryu Hayabusa is really likely for reasons everyone already knows, as they have been repeated again and again ever since he was in a fake leak, though being in fake leaks doesn't take away the qualities you have. Talking about leaks and rumors, the talks Koei-Tecmo got with Nintendo for Smahs could have been for the AoC spirits and maybe Hayabusa, we don't know the full story of it, or at least no yet, but talks hapened for sure since we got the AoC spirits who are copyrighted for KT. And the 4chan "leak" that says Hayabusa, Doomguy, and Rayman was a prediction list and fake, Doomguy has laready beeen disconfirmed a while ago after all.
Dante
Bang bang bang devil trigger funny pizze wahoo man, I do find him extremly likely despite how past statements like that ended up being extremly wrong. Dante is famous but also not a blockbuster level character, rather he's more on the tier of Joker but with more history for defining a genre and being famous for his rivalry with Vergil when it comes to game design, or at least I hope he is because it's one of the greatest rivalry in gaming history and everyone wanting to do stuff that is gaming related proffesionnaly should at least understand why it's so great and why Capcom is so good at making rivals. Anyway, DMC1 ports anounced one month after the DMC director said that fans should ask for DMC on switch before Dante in Smash is not suspicious at all, nope, not in the slightest. There's also how he's a Capcom character, and Capcom and Nintendo are good buddies, it's a known fact. Dante got a lot of request when it seems that it could have been at the most crucial time too, so that's another point for him. He's very historical too despite being the youngest character on this list, and I feel like everyone just wants Dante vs Bayonneta to happen at this point. While he doesn't have a big relation to Nintendo unlike Monster Hunter or Phoenix Wright, I feel like the impact DMC5 had made so that it would be very similar to Joker/Persona 5 getting in Smash.
Adol Christin
Remember how both Dante and Hayabusa above have big historical importance to gaming? Adol has this too, he's even from the 4th oldest still ongoing jrpg series behind Dragon Quest, Megami Tensei, and Final Fantasy, so that's also cool for him. Also Falcom has a good relationship with Nintendo, so that's also good for him. Now a point that really goes in his favor is how Falcomis like the jrpg version of SNK. No, really, not big in the west, but still very influential and popular in Asia with one character above others being seen as the best fit to represent them in Smash. Like, it just makes a lot of sense that Adol would get in, especialy after Terry and how Falcom ported a bunch of their games on Switch. While Adol doesn't have the popularity of other characters, he makes up for it in being historical and influencial a whole lot. Though as of recent I feel like he could also be interchanged with Rean Schwarzer, though I do feel like Adol is the more likely of the possible Falcom characters by a lot.
Honorable mentions because I'm more than probably very wrong
Rean Schwarzer
Reimu Hakurei
Sol Badguy
Laharl
Arle Nadja
Demi-Fiend
Phoenix Wright
Profesor Layton
Crash Bandicoot
Rex
Bandana Dee
Basicaly those are characters I can all see very well hapening though I don't feel like they're as likely as the 3 I explained above. And yes, I do see Bandana Dee as about as likely as Rex.
To clarify, I'm not calling Phoenix a meme pick. I'm saying he's literally known from his memes. He's one of my most wanted, if not my most wanted character.
1. New Pokémon Rep. With Pokémon’s 25th year anniversary coming soon, a new Pokémon Rep would make sence to promote the franchises aniversity. The question is who? It appears that the most likely Pokémon is from the Galar region there are a lot of great Pokémon’s in the game to choose from. My personal choice would be Boltound, with it’s moves including electric type moves, but also crunch and play rough. Cinderace would also be fun, having moves like Pyroball and Bounce to deliver damage. But my personal choice of a new Pokémon Rep is Lugia. It’s size was an issue in earlier instalments in Smash, but since Ridley became playable and the rules continue to be shattered as of recent, Lugia has more of a chance. Lugia would use deadly moves like Areoblast, Dragon Rush, Wind Gusts and Extrasensory among others, and overall, Lugia and many other Pokémon (depending on who) would make the most likely candidate for the Second Fighters Pass.
2. New Kirby Rep. Let’s face it, Kirby is long overdue for a new rep Ndebele there are two likely choices, being Bandanna Dee and Adeleine. Bandanna Dee would make a great time saving character, as all you need is the Wasdle Dee model in the game, give it a moveset and a few changes and ta da, an instant fighter. Bandanna Dee could also take cues from Kirby: Star Allies in his moveset. As for Adeleine, it’s rather surprising that she is not even a spirit in the game. Adeleine also has some potential of moves, including paint moves that could make her unique compared to most fighters (outside Inkling). Overall, I think a Kirby character would make a great spot for the second fighter’s pass.
3. Shantae. Shantae’s appearence in Smash as a spirit is quite surprising, and since Min-Min has been promoted to playable, Shantae’s chance hasn’t risen quite a bit. Shantae has some potential for Smash, including her hair Attacks and transformation abilities would make her unique in this game. Not only that, I can see her face off against quite a bit of fighters, including the likes of Wario, Steve, Greninja, Samus, Corrin and King K.Rool, among others. Shantae would also make a great indie rep, and with indie reps getting decent representation, Shantae is a great choice. Overall, Shantae would make another great choice for the Second Fighter’s Pass.
Because of how popular Pokémon is, it’s seems like a no brainer.
However, a new Legend of Zelda Rep (for the 35th aniversity) and Crash Bandicoot (for the 25th university) are honourable mentions I feel that make sure us feel better.
Because of how popular Pokémon is, it’s seems like a no brainer.
However, a new Legend of Zelda Rep (for the 35th aniversity) and Crash Bandicoot (for the 25th university) are honourable mentions I feel that make sure us feel better.
Gonna preface this by saying that I'm not expecting as many "safe" picks. A major reasoning for them is that they don't have much going against them, but the majority of Smash characters have obstacles of some kind. Joker was extremely far removed from Nintendo systems and very recent, Banjo was owned by a direct console competitor, Min Min was a Spirit from a game that didn't seem to have much activity at the moment, etc. That, and I'm pretty lenient in general.
And admittedly, there's a bit of bias involved; A lot of the "safe picks" don't appeal to me as much, and I tend to focus on characters who interest me. Might make my predictions incorrect, but hey, if I knew all the answers, I wouldn't be here speculating. Either way, the options have become so numerous that it's extremely hard to get and exact prediction, so why bother?
Alright, here we go.
Lloyd Irving - The most solid prediction I have at the moment. Tales is pretty big, especially over in Japan, and is one of Bandai-Namco's biggest series left now that Heihachi is out of the picture.
It feels a bit off to not have another Bamco character when they're making the game. I think Nintendo intentionally pushed a Bamco character back to DLC to avoid letting them take too much of the base game's profits; With how many games they have represented already, even in minor ways, I'd imagine they'd be payed decently well. On the topic of the base game, Tales is conspicuously absent from Pac-Man's Namco Roulette taunt, when the likes of Don-chan, Gil, the Prince, and even Heihachi get a cameo in there.
Out of all the Tales protagonists, I think Lloyd has the best shot. He's far and away the most popular request for Smash, even if other characters like Yuri and Velvet are more popular and recent. In addition, Tales of Symphonia is what really put the franchise on the map. It's a very similar situation to Cloud back in Smash 4; Represents the series' breakout hit and is the most popular Smash request, though Lloyd seems to be more notable for the latter rather than the former. Other Tales characters are possible, but I still stand that Lloyd has the best shot out of all of them.
As for the Mii Costume...There's nothing saying it 100% needs to come back. Smash has had a history of breaking precedent, and I don't think Nintendo would look at someone like him and just go "Oh dear, he used to have a Mii Costume. Guess we can't add him." I'm going to judge him by his own merits, not by the Mii.
Reimu Hakurei - A bit of a smaller pick, I believe in Reimu chances because of her indie status.
Smash has been slowly but surely been adding more indie content. Starting with the Commander Video trophy in Smash 4, it expanded to Shovel Knight having an Assist Trophy that directly affects the gameplay, then to Sans and Cuphead Miis that allow you to play as them (Or at least feel like you are), and then finally to Steve being playable. However, Minecraft stopped being an indie after Microsoft purchased it, and indies weren't mentioned in his presentation. I think there's still room left for a true indie character.
The Touhou Project is huge in Japan. It sits upon a mountain of fanworks, shows up all over the place, and is big enough to have it's own yearly conventions. In the West, it's not quite as big, but it still has small but strong following that I don't think should be counted out. In addition, it also represents the doujin circles, which are essentially Japan's answer to indies, giving it a bit more coverage.
Reimu has a couple roadblocks, but Touhou has ways of getting around them, even if they're a bit unconventional. The mainline games aren't officially translated, but it's not because of obscurity or lack of effort; ZUN just knows that the fans will create a translation a couple days after the games released, meaning he doesn't need to translate them himself. The games are readily available on Steam, too. They might not be on the Switch, but there's still a decent amount of fangames that'll pop up if you type "Touhou" into the eShop search. In addition, Nintendo has sold Touhou CDs at the dedicated Touhou convention, Reitaisai, so they're clearly aware of the series.
Lastly, ZUN would be incredibly easy to work with. He's just one guy; No corporate mandates or whatnot to wade through. he allows fans to go wild with the setting, and he's expressed interest in Touhou characters in Smash as well. He'd probably just ask Nintendo to pay for his beer for a couple months. This is a major reason why I'm so optimistic; There's just so little hoops to go through, even with the small amounts of direct connections.
Potential Replacements: Quote and Shovel Knight. Both of them defined indies; Quote proved they could hit it big, and Shovel Knight became emblematic of the modern indie boom. I'd be wary of Nicalis' ghosting habits, but knowing Nintendo, I don't think it's unrealistic for them to strongarm them into cooperating. It's just that Touhou is older and arguably bigger, what with all it's official and fanmade games, so Iput Reimu first. Granted, there might be a bit of bias in there, so...
Rex - Upon closer inspection, scubaboi actually has a fair bit going for him. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 would've been up for consideration had it come sooner, just like ARMS... And now we have Min Min. Despite the fact that we now have XCDE, XC2 is still being promoted in magazines and MonoSoft's Twitter banner. XC2 was MonoSoft's first real major success, and did pretty darn well for a niche RPG that has a history of not selling well. And, of course, Rex is a massively popular request, especially in Japan. With all this, I can see Nintendo going for him as a first-party finisher.
As for the Mii Costume, I'd place him in the same tier as the base game costumes. It was a free bonus that came with the first Fighter's Pack, and we even have an XC2 costume there in the form of Nia. To me, it seems like he leans closer to the base game Miis rather than the DLC waves.
Potential Replacements: Isaac, Euden. Both are first-party RPG swordfighters, and they cover different areas. Isaac is a long-standing request who may have a new game coming up, and Nintendo could please the fans like they did with Banjo. Euden is from a new Nintendo IP, and the first of it's kind - An original mobile IP. Despite this, Dragalia Lost has nothing in the base game whatsoever. I rank Rex above them because he has fan support and recency on his side, and XC2 seems to be more noticeable in the public eye than Golden Sun and Dragalia.
And that's the last of it. There's a lot of other people I could mention, like Adol, Sol, or Bandana Dee, but I'm narrowing it down to the three I'm the most focused on for the sake of simplicity.
Let's note this is pretty difficult for me to predict. Sephiroth threw me for a loop, and only Steve/Alex I felt was obvious as is.
-Crash Bandicoot: I feel he's our next "big" third party. Not just cause of stuff like relevance(less so that), but he's a pretty big all-star, extremely popular, and had a resurgence of games lately.
-Agumon: I at first would've said Lloyd, but after seeing the big details put into Steve/Alex alone, I realized that having a bigger gimmick isn't actually much against him. The other factor is constant games coming out, as Digimon is striking it hot again. With the latest anime also coming out soon in the US, he's very easy to promote in general.
-Waluigi: I was going to say Urshifu, but taking a look right now at Pokemon, the DLC stuff is already out and it's time in the sun is nearly over, so the timing feels off. It's not impossible or anything, but I feel Waluigi's massively all-star status combined with an extremely high popularity and fan requests make him an excellent choice. This isn't even counting how it's good timing to announce him while the Super Mario series is right now, as well as the anniversary timing(obviously he isn't going to be in the game because of the anniversary, it's just a plausible time to announce him).
These aren't in an exact order, mostly cause I forget when the anniversary of Super Mario is. I do feel like Crash might be second, Waluigi first, and Agumon last, though, with everything I kept in mind.
(Incidentally, I feel like I didn't give enough details).
I posted a mock up of my current predictions in the Newcomer Speculation thread that I’ll repost here:
Crash, Hayabusa, and a Tales rep are the only characters that I would give more than a 50% chance. In fact, last month I made a bet with a friend of mine that at least two of these characters will absolutely be in Fighters Pass 2. (It’s silly to be that confident, but go big or go home am I right?)
Ryu Hayabusa: This is probably the character I’m most confident in. Out of all the companies without a character in Smash, Koei Tecmo really stands out. On top of being a mainstream Japanese developer, they have also made numerous deals with Nintendo as of late from Age of Calamity to offering multiple IPs for Ultimate. And if they were to get a character in Smash, it isn’t even a question as to who it would be. Much like Mega Man, Ninja Gaiden has been a rather consistent name in gaming ever since its heyday on the NES, with Hayabusa also functioning as KT's mascot by making appearances in plenty of games outside his own series. Sakurai is quite the gaming historian, and Hayabusa seems like a character he’d be eager to implement into Smash. His inclusion is only a matter of time, and I feel like the time is now.
Lloyd Irving: Despite Bandai Namco developing Ultimate, Pac-Man remains as the only character to represent the company. If FP2 is truly the end of Ultimate’s DLC, then I’d be pretty damn shocked to see Namco with 0 new characters to show for all their work on the game. It isn’t like Namco doesn’t have any big characters to offer. Tekken literally outsells Street Fighter, and Lloyd has been a huge request since Brawl. With Heihachi being added as a Mii costume, the door is wide open for Lloyd. We’ve had a strange lack of Tales content in Smash and while many people seem pretty spooked by all the Smash 4 Mii costumes being slowly doled out, I still have faith that there are bigger plans for Lloyd.
I actually have a sneaking suspicion that Lloyd has been in the works for quite a while. Not only do we have a semi-credible leak supporting this claim, but it makes sense given what we know. We know that Steve was being worked on long before his release. We also know that third parties prefer to have characters as DLC, as it’s more profitable. So if Lloyd was being planned since base game, it would make sense for him to be held back for DLC. It even kind of makes sense for him to have missed FP1. After all, FP1 already had its fair share of JRPG swordsman. Joker was released alongside a plethora of P5 announcements, Hero was released alongside DQ11S, and they probably wanted Byleth in while Three Houses was still fresh in our minds. Waiting to include Lloyd makes sense as his archetype was already being heavily represented in FP1.
I’ll also mention that Yuri feels very possible. He’s not as popular in the Smash community, but he is huge within the Tales fanbase. I could even see both of them as DLC. Vesperia and Symphonia are unique enough universes to have their own challenger packs. I even have a whole tinfoil hat theory on why exactly that might happen, but I won’t get into that here. This section has already gone on long enough.
Crash:Honestly, the main reason I think that Crash will happen is because he should happen. Tell you what, I don’t even care about Crash. I never owned a PlayStation until I was 20, and my first Crash game was N-Sane Trilogy. I played it for about an hour and haven’t gone back since. Not because I was busy, but because I was bored. His games really didn’t click with me, yet even I can admit that he absolutely deserves to be in Smash. There’s only a select few characters that can be viewed as ‘console mascots’ and Crash is one of the few to hold that title. Being the mascot of the PS1, the first console to truly give Nintendo a run for their money, is a massive feat. Now he’s out here getting a huge revival in the industry, while also having a bunch of his games ported to the Switch. The timing for Crash couldn't be much better and Nintendo should strike while the iron's hot.
Honorable Mentions
Capcom: The whole company. If you want to talk about a developer with dozens of great characters and series that would be perfect for Smash, then look no further than Capcom. We haven’t had any new Capcom characters for Ultimate’s DLC, and it would be kind of strange to see such a massive company ignored for two passes in a row. I just have a hard time envisioning who we would get. Resident Evil seemed like a good frontrunner, but it just got a spirit event featuring all of its major characters. Chun-Li is a big name, but Street Fighter already has fairly adequate representation in Smash. Dante is a popular choice, but his series isn’t as big as people make it out to be and he has very little connection to Nintendo. Phoenix Wright has a lot of Nintendo history, but Ace Attorney is still a somewhat niche franchise. Monster Hunter is a successful series with lots of games and plenty of Nintendo history...but doesn’t really feature a memorable protagonist.
I could see any of these characters happening, but individually, none of them really stand out to me. I wanna say that either Chun-Li or Phoenix have the best shot, but I’m also biased as those are two of my most wanted.
Captain Toad: Call me crazy, but I ain’t counting him out. Going into Ultimate, my top 5 predictions were Inkling, Captain Toad, Isabelle, King K. Rool, and Ridley in that order. I still believe that if Sakurai were to include just one or two more characters to Ultimate, that Captain Toad likely would have been one of them. Ever since 3D World, the Captain has been consistently getting more and more attention. Treasure Tracker has been released three times, he had a unique role in Odyssey, Treasure Tracker is one of few games to have user icons on the Switch (alongside ARMS. Hmm...), he’s getting even more action in Bowser’s Fury, he's included in Nintendo's new theme park, the list goes on. Captain Toad is clearly here to stay. If we got another Nintendo character in this pass, he would be my bet.
Xenoblade: I'm not as confident as most people, but another Xenoblade character is definitely possible. It's just that releasing Rex this late in the game sounds really odd. I'm not saying he "missed the boat," but his appeal is only fading as time passes. I would love to see Elma, but a lot of things have to go right in order for her to happen. Still, Xenoblade has grown quite a lot since Shulk's inclusion, and Nintendo seems pretty enthusiastic about the series. At the very least, I would say it definitely deserves a second character. I'm just not sure if I'm really feeling it.
Rayman: One of those characters that seems like he'll happen eventually. Ubisoft is definitely one of the more noteworthy companies without a character in Smash. It's up there with Koei Tecmo as being a major company with a strong relationship with Nintendo. The problem is that there are always bigger fish to fry. Rayman has a lot going for him, but not enough to really stand out in the crowd. People barely agree that he stands out amongst other Ubisoft characters. Even in terms of Western platforming mascots, he's overshadowed by Crash. However, I don't think he's out of the running and I can't help but think that he might just come when we least expect it.
Master Chief: It seems as though Nintendo is only including one character per company in each fighters pass. However, there's little reason to believe that that's a "rule." For all we know, Nintendo might actually prefer to use the same company multiple times. After all, we've already gotten two Square and two Microsoft characters for DLC (albeit in separate passes). Who's to say? Anyways, Master Chief truly stands out to me. If Nintendo is gonna grab Banjo and Steve, they might as well go for Mr. Xbox himself and really break the internet. It's not like there's tremendous overlap between the Halo fanbase and the Minecraft fanbase. They both stand on their own as uniquely important franchises. There's still plenty of concerns with Chief though. Would Sakurai want a character so separated from Nintendo? Could he figure out a way for him to feasibly work in Smash? Would Microsoft be willing to offer up there own mascot for a decent price? I wanna say the answer to all of these questions is yes, but I'm not too sure.
A Retro Nintendo Character: Probably the least likely of my honorable mentions, but a possibility that I still want to bring up. Smash has a history of including strange characters from Nintendo's past: Ice Climbers, G&W, Pit, R.O.B., Duck Hunt. It's been a consistent trend since Melee. I just can't help but wonder if Sakurai had a good classic character in mind for Ultimate that he eventually scrapped due to only having time for a few newcomers. If that is the case, it makes me think that Sakurai just might have a random Lip or Mach Rider up his sleeve that could be revealed at any moment. It would certainly be unorthodox for a DLC character, but sometimes you gotta expect the unexpected.
Edit: Just remembered a couple more characters that I wanted to bring up.
Arle: My bet if we got another Sega character. I'm still somewhat skeptical that a game like Puyo Puyo would need a playable character, as it seems like the type of series that could be well represented through other means (stages, items, spirits, etc.). However, I can't deny Arle's popularity. She's a character that's only recognized within certain gaming circles, but she's immensely popular within those circles. Kind of like Terry. Definitely a sleeper pick.
Spyro:Let me say that I do not imagine Spyro getting in before Crash, but I can definitely see him getting in at the same time as Crash. While they are both made by the same developers and have similar fanbases, they are clearly both icons that Nintendo wants to push. I said before that I don't see a problem with two characters from the same company, and this is an instance where I can definitely see that "rule" being broken.
Another Square Character:Speaking of two characters from the same company, I could see another Square character showing up. If they already have Square on board for FP2, why not grab another character while they're at it? I've mentioned that the absence of Chrono Trigger content is interesting as Crono was a huge name back in the day (around the same time as Cloud, Sephiroth, and Erdrick). I also think that Lara Croft and 2B still have a lot going for them. Even Sora (who is only kind of a Square character) still feels like someone that could eventually happen. Overall, this is more of a hypothetical Fighters Pass 3 prediction, but I still think it's possible that this could happen sooner than we think.
could get in via Vol. 2, I don't think Rex is too far-fetched.
