Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pillow]

I don't understand this Chun Li talk came from, I mean the rumor involving her says that she's replaced by Ken and that's it, there's no line of text that say "Nintendo is reconsidering their decision to put her in" or anything like that afaik and suddenly everyone thinks she's next in the line up?

Even outside of that specific rumor, Sephiroth's reveal opened the door for secondary characters from existing 3rd party franchises to arrive in Smash. It's the same reason that people are also talking about another Sonic character recently. Regardless of whether you think she's coming or not, Chun-Li is just a massively well known and popular character that warrants discussion based on her own merits.

 

[SharkLord]

I don't understand this Chun Li talk came from, I mean the rumor involving her says that she's replaced by Ken and that's it, there's no line of text that say "Nintendo is reconsidering their decision to put her in" or anything like that afaik and suddenly everyone thinks she's next in the line up?

It's also partially because of Sephiroth officially opening up the door for "repeat" third-party series, and Chun-Li fans pounced on the double-whammy opportunities to plug their most-wanted. It's basic Smash fan instinct; I can confirm that I jumped at the chance to push Adol when teh Falcom leak got a second wave of attention.

Though, I do think Chun-Li, Eggman, and the like are going to experience the pitfall of Smash not staying on the new precedents they set. Every time we a new fighter is added, precedents are broken, people start looking at similar characters, and the next fighter breaks a different precedent and going in a different direction, which speculators latch on to and look for characters who would fit the new precedent, only for yet another precedent to be broken the next time around., rinse and repeat. Not sure we'll get another repeat third-party like everyone is thinking, at least not for CP9.

 

[7NATOR]

If we get another Street Fighter character it will be Chun-Li. I heard your reasons for it the other day but no, there's no other Street Fighter character that comes close to the notoriety or significance of the co-star of the series. Chun-Li's impact and cultural relevance is pretty much equivalent to Ryu's, there's really no other choice or reason to add another SF character in the first place if not to add arguably the biggest character still missing from Smash.

I know we're not presenting opinions with the intention of getting critique but like, there's no reason to believe it wouldn't be Chun-Li.

So the character I had in Mind was Akuma

Now I know Chun-Li is the Co-Mascot, and I'd actually agree she's probably a bigger character

I don't think that she's Head and Heel above some characters like you might suggest

I'd Argue Akuma, M.Bison, Ken (who's In), and maybe Guile and Zangief and Blanka are up there in Noterity also

-Ken has been in every Street Fighter Game with Ryu, unlike Chun-Li
-M. Bison is the Main Villain for a good amount of the Street Fighter games, Including SF2, the Most Popular SF, as well as the most recent one in SF5, as well as the Movie. He also has that Legendary Dictator look
-Guile has his Theme, as well as his turtling playstyle, Zangief (along with Bison) was in the Wreck it Ralph movie, and Blanka as his Design that's very noticable

In Akuma's Case, He's actually the only character that's been able to stand on his Own, Which is Something not even characters like Sephiroth have been able to do. Akuma was the Only SF character in X-Men, Children of the atom (and was basically the reason for MVC), and He's also the only SF Character in Tekken 7. He's also the character people think of when People think of Secret Bosses, though I believe Reptile from Mortal Kombat came before Akuma

Chun-Li had the Movie, that people did not like, but In regards to games she's hasn't been on her own. She has Appeared I believe almost every Crossover Ryu shows up in, so that's something she has above the other characters

So I don't think it's as Cut and Dry as you might make it seem, but I do say Chun-Li probably has more merit. I just personally think she won't be chosen. It's really just a feeling on my part, and I might still go back to predicting Scorpion. I don't know

 

[JOJONumber691]

Luigi debuted in 64 as a quick clone, and Sakurai in general dislikes decloning people. That's different from how the Summoner would be, as DLC aren't Echo Fighters, and they couldn't feasibly make an Echo situation work with any FE character because the Summoner has a gun and none of the FE Lords or Avatars have one. Either way, if they silhouettes still mattered that much, then why isn't Byleth an Echo of Marth, Roy, or Ike?
And honestly, I don't think anything will beat redoing every stage just to make Steve's gimmick work. Even then, they don't need to make a perfect 1-to-1 translation, either. Min Min's punches are shorter than in ARMS, Hero doesn't get MP back with normal attacks in Dragon Quest, and Steve doesn't create every tool at once from a single piece of material. If Heroes' gameplay is too complicated to cram into a single moveset, there's nothing that says they can't abridge it to make it work in a fighting game.

The Gun could make something unique, but there's some leeway sure, but Byleth also stands completely differently from Marth and Ike. Standing with the Sword behind them. Summoner's Sihloette would be too similar to Robin to justify it. No Sword and Gun isn't enough, because everything else besides Color would be the same as Robin. Thus why Summoner wouldn't work, ontop of the Budget. Heroes works in a way that requires you to make 80 Models for One Character, on top of Voice Acting. Yeah I'm sorry Kiran ain't happening.

 

[Pillow]

So the character I had in Mind was Akuma

Now I know Chun-Li is the Co-Mascot, and I'd actually agree she's probably a bigger character

I don't think that she's Head and Heel above some characters like you might suggest

I'd Argue Akuma, M.Bison, Ken (who's In), and maybe Guile and Zangief and Blanka are up there in Noterity also

-Ken has been in every Street Fighter Game with Ryu, unlike Chun-Li
-M. Bison is the Main Villain for a good amount of the Street Fighter games, Including SF2, the Most Popular SF, as well as the most recent one in SF5, as well as the Movie. He also has that Legendary Dictator look
-Guile has his Theme, as well as his turtling playstyle, Zangief (along with Bison) was in the Wreck it Ralph movie, and Blanka as his Design that's very noticable

In Akuma's Case, He's actually the only character that's been able to stand on his Own, Which is Something not even characters like Sephiroth have been able to do. Akuma was the Only SF character in X-Men, Children of the atom (and was basically the reason for MVC), and He's also the only SF Character in Tekken 7. He's also the character people think of when People think of Secret Bosses, though I believe Reptile from Mortal Kombat came before Akuma

Chun-Li had the Movie, that people did not like, but In regards to games she's hasn't been on her own. She has Appeared I believe almost every Crossover Ryu shows up in, so that's something she has above the other characters

So I don't think it's as Cut and Dry as you might make it seem, but I do say Chun-Li probably has more merit. I just personally think she won't be chosen. It's really just a feeling on my part, and I might still go back to predicting Scorpion. I don't know

I agree that all those other characters are notable within the gaming community, but Chun-Li is the only Street Fighter character that's really notable outside even gaming circles (moreso than even Ryu). Her number of appearances isn't really a factor here, she's just super well known. The movie is a symptom, not a cause. She's the only one with a Nikki Minaj song.

Personally, I don't think we are getting another SF character, but if we do I'd also bet my life on Chun-Li. I think it is that cut and dry. Akuma also has the issue that he's pretty similar to Ryu/Ken in terms of his playstyle, and Sakurai really enjoys making DLC characters as unique as possible. Chun-Li would use the SF special input mechanic, but at least she's not a shoto.

 

[SharkLord]

The Gun could make something unique, but there's some leeway sure, but Byleth also stands completely differently from Marth and Ike. Standing with the Sword behind them. Summoner's Sihloette would be too similar to Robin to justify it. No Sword and Gun isn't enough, because everything else besides Color would be the same as Robin. Thus why Summoner wouldn't work, ontop of the Budget. Heroes works in a way that requires you to make 80 Models for One Character, on top of Voice Acting. Yeah I'm sorry Kiran ain't happening.

If the way you hold a sword is enough difference, then holding a gun is going to be different from holding a sword and/or a book. Aside from that, the Summoner is generally shown with their hood up; Robin keeps their hood off in Smash, so you can easily tell the difference.
Aside from that, color still plays a pretty decent role. Depending on how far away they are from the screen, some people just remember "I'm the red guy with the blue arrow above my head" and look for that in times of chaos. Color palette isn't something to be ignored.

And the Summoner doesn't need eighty different models, that's preposterous. Steve didn't need every single block and item in Minecraft, Cloud didn't need every Limit Break, Joker didn't need every Persona, etc. Fighters don't need every tiny little detail from their home game, just enough to accurately represent it. The Summoner would be fine with just six-ten characters; Heck, if we're being really conservative we'd be fine just limiting it to four characters for the different unit colors, or the five secondary Lords from the different books.
None of them need new lines either, seeing as they can just reuse the ones from Heroes; heck, Black Knight and Tiki(?) already do so. Even if they're just ATs, we already have an instance of reused voice clips in fighters with Chrom.

I hate the term "fan rule," but honestly, that's what you're using right now. Arbitrary requirements that have already been disproven in multiple instances and have to be stretched just to make sense. I don't think the Summoner is very likely, but not because of these shallow "obstacles".

 

[7NATOR]

I agree that all those other characters are notable within the gaming community, but Chun-Li is the only Street Fighter character that's really notable outside even gaming circles (moreso than even Ryu). Her number of appearances isn't really a factor here, she's just super well known. The movie is a symptom, not a cause. She's the only one with a Nikki Minaj song.

Personally, I don't think we are getting another SF character, but if we do I'd also bet my life on Chun-Li. I think it is that cut and dry. Akuma also has the issue that he's pretty similar to Ryu/Ken in terms of his playstyle, and Sakurai really enjoys making DLC characters as unique as possible. Chun-Li would use the SF special input mechanic, but at least she's not a shoto.

-I thought alot of the Characters in SF2 was notable outside of Gaming circles though. That's why I mentioned stuff like the Movie, where M.Bison was the Main villain and stuff like that. I've also seen people on my Mom's Facebook post videos with Guile's theme and everything. I'm not entirely sure Chun-Li is the only character that's notable outside of Gaming circles

-I'm also not even sure if she's more Notable than Ryu. I mean I could believe it, and it is true she is the only one with a Nicki Minaj song, but that is quite a statement. I will say perhaps her design is more Notable, because Ryu does look like just a Karate man, but on the other side, he is probably THE Karate man of media, besides Bruce Lee

-I'm also with you that I do think there might be a Problem of Akuma's Similarities to Ryu/Ken. With him I think they might play into the Boss thing, where maybe he has Access to Super Moves like the Raging Demon, as well as maybe being able to Transform with the power of the Satsui no Hado.

Though Chun-Li I would say is more different in terms of Type of moves used, Design, and just that she has charge inputs, which Changes how she would play. Thought the problem with that is that if Charge inputs are unable to be implemented in the first Place, than that kind of kills some of the vibe Chun-Li usually has. They can implment Down/Up inputs, as seen with Terry, but Back/Forward is a Problem in a game like Smash

 

[Dukefire]

While it could be anyone from a game series that left their mark in gaming, the marketing standpoint counts as well.

Could be Dante, Doom Slayer, Crash Bandicoot, an indie rep, etc.......

Spoiler: Random image

 

[JOJONumber691]

If the way you hold a sword is enough difference, then holding a gun is going to be different from holding a sword and/or a book. Aside from that, the Summoner is generally shown with their hood up; Robin keeps their hood off in Smash, so you can easily tell the difference.
Aside from that, color still plays a pretty decent role. Depending on how far away they are from the screen, some people just remember "I'm the red guy with the blue arrow above my head" and look for that in times of chaos. Color palette isn't something to be ignored.

And the Summoner doesn't need eighty different models, that's preposterous. Steve didn't need every single block and item in Minecraft, Cloud didn't need every Limit Break, Joker didn't need every Persona, etc. Fighters don't need every tiny little detail from their home game, just enough to accurately represent it. The Summoner would be fine with just six-ten characters; Heck, if we're being really conservative we'd be fine just limiting it to four characters for the different unit colors, or the five secondary Lords from the different books.
None of them need new lines either, seeing as they can just reuse the ones from Heroes; heck, Black Knight and Tiki(?) already do so. Even if they're just ATs, we already have an instance of reused voice clips in fighters with Chrom.

I hate the term "fan rule," but honestly, that's what you're using right now. Arbitrary requirements that have already been disproven in multiple instances and have to be stretched just to make sense. I don't think the Summoner is very likely, but not because of these shallow "obstacles".

Ah yes. Being able to tell who is who is a Fan Rule now, eh?

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

FP 9: Phoenix Wright

FP 10: Rayman

FP 11: BotW(2) Zelda

 

[Dukefire]

Well, one of the rules that's staying:
-Must Originate from a Video Game

 

[Pillow]

-I thought alot of the Characters in SF2 was notable outside of Gaming circles though. That's why I mentioned stuff like the Movie, where M.Bison was the Main villain and stuff like that. I've also seen people on my Mom's Facebook post videos with Guile's theme and everything. I'm not entirely sure Chun-Li is the only character that's notable outside of Gaming circles

-I'm also not even sure if she's more Notable than Ryu. I mean I could believe it, and it is true she is the only one with a Nicki Minaj song, but that is quite a statement. I will say perhaps her design is more Notable, because Ryu does look like just a Karate man, but on the other side, he is probably THE Karate man of media, besides Bruce Lee

-I'm also with you that I do think there might be a Problem of Akuma's Similarities to Ryu/Ken. With him I think they might play into the Boss thing, where maybe he has Access to Super Moves like the Raging Demon, as well as maybe being able to Transform with the power of the Satsui no Hado.

Though Chun-Li I would say is more different in terms of Type of moves used, Design, and just that she has charge inputs, which Changes how she would play. Thought the problem with that is that if Charge inputs are unable to be implemented in the first Place, than that kind of kills some of the vibe Chun-Li usually has. They can implment Down/Up inputs, as seen with Terry, but Back/Forward is a Problem in a game like Smash

Not that I don't find this discussion to be interesting, but this'll be my last response related to this topic. It's the Prediction Day here, after all, not the Chun-Li day.

Yes I realize character like Bison also has appearances and even recognizable memes (it was a Tuesday). But like I said, it's not really about Chun Li's number of appearances. Chun-Li is distinct for separate reasons, such as being one of the first real notable female video game protagonists. I wouldn't go so far as to call her a feminist icon (she was still designed to show off her ass every time she spin kicks), but being a strong female character is a big deal. People often criticize Smash for lacking both female and poc characters, when the reality is that's the case because Smash is essentially a reflection of the video game industry and its history as a whole. As sad as it sounds, having Chun-Li show up would be a bigger deal than any other SF character solely because of her gender alongside her relative importance to her home series. Peach and Zelda spend most of their games kidnapped and waiting to be saved (though that's slowly changing for the better and they have good portrayals in Smash itself), Isabelle is a goddamn secretary. Only Samus and Bayonetta (and I guess the Avatar characters, but they don't really count) fit the bill out of Smash's massive roster (I'm pretending "Other M" never existed, and you all should too).

Plus as far as SF is concerned, really only Bison or Akuma come even close to being as important as Chun, and I personally think they both don't even really come that close. I will state again, I actually don't think Chun-Li is coming for a variety of reasons (the biggest for me being Min-Min's appearance this FP, who shares a lot of similar themes with Chun-Li) but she's the clear frontrunner for another character from SF and I'd even go further to say when we get another Smash game she will 100% be in it.

 

[SharkLord]

Ah yes. Being able to tell who is who is a Fan Rule now, eh?

Yes, because it doesn't have any official statements to back it up, you're treating it as reason for a hard, definite no rather than simply unlikely, and your reasoning based on that point is inconsistent.

Somehow these two:

Are apparently more distinct than these two:

Based on the reasoning of... Byleth holding their sword differently? In the middle of a fast-paced fight where you're in the air half of the time, about half of everybody won't be able to discern such minute little details, especially when they both use the color blue for their hair and use swords. If the point is the silhouettes, Marth and Byleth goes against that because if you just looked at the outlines, you wouldn't be able to tell who is who at a glance. Even then, the Summoner's silhouette would be distinct from Robin's by virtue of A: Having their hood on most of the time, and B: Using a gun instead of swords and tomes. Besides, a white cloak and a black cloak would be a lot easier to distinguish than just "Well my guy holds his sword behind his head."

You didn't address my point about the models and voice acting, either. That is also a fan rule, because you are definitively saying that the way Heroes functions disqualifies the Summoner from being added when there have been no official statements on the matter. It's not something that has precedent, like Assist Trophies or post-launch Spirit Events. Large cast gachas have not been represented in Smash, nor has Sakurai ever said that they are disqualifies, so you cannot say for certain that they are disqualified or how they would be implemented.

If you want to convince anybody, you'll need a better response than just a snarky one-liner.

 

[warpenguin55]

Predictions:

I think every company who got a character in FP1 will also get once in FP2. So far, 3/5 companies have given fighters in both both FP1 and FP2. Square Enix got Hero and Sephiroth, Nintendo added Byleth and Min Min, and Microsoft got Banjo/Kazooie and Steve. That leaves SNK and SEGA as the only companies not double repped. That would also leave 1 wildcard slot available.

Atleast, that's what I wanted to say. But there's nobody left to pick from in SNK, they pretty much blew their load when Terry was added . Capcom appears to still be supporting SSBU, so I'll transfer SNK's slot to them.

We also seem to be getting the biggest names available for this pass(and Min Min).

SEGA: Eggman
This one is the easiest. Another Sonic rep has been requested since SSB4, and Eggman is probably the most requested of the bunch. Eggman's got the name value for this easy.

Honorable Mentions: Tails and Kiryu

Capcom: Chun-Li
Capcom is pretty stacked. There's Phoenix, Dante, Amaterasu, and Chun-Li. I give Chun-Li the edge for being the biggest name of the 4. There is an argument that we wouldn't get another Street Fighter rep, and honestly I don't really want another yet. But still, Chun-Li's got that name value that Nintendo is looking for right now.
HM: Phoenix, Dante, Amaterasu

Wildcard: Crash Bandicoot
After decofirming everyone from Capcom, SEGA, Microsoft, and Square Enix, Crash is easily the most recognizable character remaining(that I can think of). =
HM: Veigo(LoL, he's the Ruined King btw), Agumon

Noms: LoL Rep x5

 

[amageish]

So, I had big plans for this day, but I'm still pretty burnt out on speculation and couldn't push myself all the way through my planned dialogue... So, uh, if you want the start of a fight with myself about what it means to be "likely" in Smash speculation, then here's that! Note that I would have discussed plenty more characters, so I'm not purposefully excluding anyone... I also was trying to include some characters that I don't think are actually likely, but are interesting to me because they do things other "likely" characters do; I was not trying to say that everyone I speak about has a chance.

Maybe I'll finish it one day when I'm in more of a speculative mood. Maybe I won't. Who knows.

Link to the last day we did this and the last time I did this.

Spoiler: A Bit of a Dialogue About Smash Speculation

So, let’s begin with discussing first parties.

Woah, we’re going to be discussing third parties so much that first parties are their own category?

Well, yeah. This isn’t going to be a definitive list of every possible first party. Our goal is just to discuss options and potential. Let’s kick this off the way every Smash discussion seems to.

Rex (Xenoblade)

Are we really doing this again?

Apparently we are. Well, the reason for discussion is basically self-evident at this point: Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a big Nintendo game that has historically been signaled out as a candidate for Smash Bros representation

Yeah, sure… Do you know how many games meet that standard though? Not every character who could have been chosen if timing was better is going to get in.

I’m with the shadow on this one. Timing is important and potentially destructive.

Moreover, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 doesn’t lack content. It has music, which ARMS ever got in the base game.

Yeah, it technically has a couple tracks, but nothing that couldn’t be supplemented!

That’s true of most franchises. Yes, Xenoblade is a unique place, but it’s not like Sakurai hasn’t all-but-apologized for a character not being in Smash and then let fans sit with a Mii Costume before. Rex isn’t impossible, but he’s hardly a guarantee.

I wasn’t saying he was. I mean, is anyone a guarantee?

No.

Eh, probably not.

Look, Rex has a lot of good things going for him. Xenoblade isn’t a blockbuster, but it’s not a tiny franchise by any means - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 moving 2 million units isn’t anything to sneeze at. It has been signaled out before. There is room for improvement in his franchise’s representation…

Problem is that there’s not even a guarantee that we’d be getting Rex as that improvement! You know who doesn’t have any music from their game?

Elma (Xenoblade)

Ah, yes, this is true. Xenoblade Chronicles X is also one of the only games left trapped on the Wii U without asymmetric game design that would be functionally impossible to transport to the Switch… It also has no music and only a handful of spirits.

Exactly! We could get a port of X and Elma in Smash to promote it.

This is true, but I don’t love speculation that is based on speculation. It becomes kind of… speculation all the way down. She obviously merits discussion, but do we really think X would make it onto Switch a year after the first game had its definitive edition? Monolith Soft are wizards, but I don’t think they’re time-travelers?

There have been quicker turnarounds. It also isn’t like people don’t know who Elma is.

Eh, but most “promotional” picks tend to be right after their game is released or right before it. Heck, Byleth had half a year before theirs. The only time we’ve had a game reveal and Smash announcement happen at once was, like… Isabelle?

And Shulk, funnily enough.

That was even a Xenoblade port!

True! It is possible. It just really is pushing the limits of “Hey, if this all happens, then things could line up for our character!” It’s possible, but… there’s a lot of characters that things could line up for.

I’d get used to saying that. It’s going to happen a lot.

Oh god, it is, isn’t it…

Well, what’s next?

Bandana Dee (Kirby)

Yup, okay, that’s a character with guaranteed continued relevance if I’ve ever heard of one.

Is he really?

I mean, yeah. Bandana Dee has kind of slipped into the front row of the Kirby canon, ever since they’ve had a need for a fourth player.

Sure, but when you’re added as filler, you can be filtered out easily too. How’s Blue Toad doing in Mario U Deluxe?

I mean, he’s an alt? Which isn't nothing! Besides, Waddle Dee is cute and popular. He turns up in tonnes of Kirby media - I mean, think of the prevalence in things like the Kirby Cafe.

Well, congrats on citing an omelette in your Smash speculation… That’s a first. The point is obvious: Bandana Dee isn’t a mainstay, he's an extra character.

If he isn’t, then who is? How long do you have to be relevant to be relevant enough to please you?

Long enough that it’s clear you’re a unique character? Captain Toad is a particular Toad. Bandana Dee is sometimes swapped out for a Parasol Dee? They just aren’t consistent enough with this character for him to matter.

Why are we even having this debate when Piranha Plant is in the game? You talk about mixing up characters like we don’t have a mook whose side-special has it briefly turn into a different sub-species. Botanists must be so confused…

Smash Bros movesets are inconsistent at best with their obedience to canon. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume Dee could and would bounce around a bit, pardon the wordplay.

Look, Dee is a recurring player four in the Kirby franchise - heck, even a player two in things like the newest Kirby Fighters - and he’ll certainly be relevant throughout 2021, with a new Kirby project having been directly teased for this year. Combined with his prevalence in the ballot era, he kind of makes sense?

There’s a case to be made, sure, but it’s not like Kirby is a franchise that needs anything more to begin with. This isn’t like Sephiroph filling out an obvious lack of content. Sure, Sakurai is a bit biased towards his own Kirby games, but that bias is minimal in comparison to other omissions and, heck, not everyone even likes modern Kirby games.

Yeah, Star Allies is “only” hanging around 3 million units. Nothing good there…

Can we move on from this no-name please?

Sure, but you’re not going to like where we’re going.

Toad (Mario)

You’re kidding.

No.

Not even the Captain.

Meh.

Unbelievable.

Well, uh, this is an easy one to justify? Toad has been playable in Mario games for decades. People like Toads and they’re really marketable.

Yeah, but Smash Bros DLC exists to sell passes. Do you think Toad is going to get the masses rushing with their wallets in hand? Toad?

People do love Toad! I think you’re underestimating the dedication of casual gamers to the cute characters. Do you think that they make more money off of Fighter Pass sales or individual DLC?

That’s an interesting question! Impossible to definitively know, but interesting nonetheless. It’s hard to imagine what characters would min-max sales for people not dedicated enough to feel a desire to buy every character, but dedicated enough to buy DLC a couple years after the game’s release. I honestly don’t have an answer.

Well, uh, shall we move on to someone else with a similar debate?

Waluigi (Mario)

Okay, uh, let’s speedrun this: Loud requests. Mainstream. Mario character.

Meme requests. Other Mario characters are more mainstream - yes, including Toad. Mario character, but with so few Mario games he actually appears in, it’s hard to say if he even gets the full benefits the title “Mario character” implies. An objectively-nicher character like Geno or Fawful or Rabbid Peach would all be less known than Waluigi, but at least they have games all about them which you could pull content from!

Are you in favour of Toad or not?

I’m against him, but, like, at least he can fill a spirit board without making a Smash DLC that is a ****post?

I’m sure they could find a way to make Waluigi work. Mario Kart is already its own sub-series if they wanted to do something like a Waluigi Pinball stage… I mean, Mario Kart doesn’t exactly have a variety of stages. Would you like to play on Mario Circuit, Mario Circuit, or The Circuit de Mario?

Also no Mario Tennis stages!

Sure. They could do it. By why would they? We’ve got plenty of spin-offs to work with.

King Boo (Luigi’s Mansion)

Ah. Yeah. That’s a spin-off character with some meat.

I mean, Luigi’s Mansion already has a stage that is… Luigi’s Mansion.

Yeah, but Luigi himself only vaguely represents the game itself. There isn’t mechanical representation plus there is a recent-ish game still able to be promoted. You said it yourself: Byleth took a while too and Byleth was pre-pandemic, which potentially could have mucked up production schedules...

True! King Boo could be interesting for sure. There’s potential for more content from that universe.

And Luigi’s Mansion 3 never had a spirit event.

A lot of games didn’t get spirit events. I wouldn’t fix an argument on that. Honestly, we could say “It doesn’t have a spirit event” for half of the characters we’ll be covering…

This is true as well… It’s also still doubling-down on a first party franchise already in the game. Can we move on to the originals?

Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven)

Gosh… I feel bad for the Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven in general. Like, a rhythm game only has a couple songs in Smash? That’s just unfortunate. It has the most spirits of any franchise without a fighter, but still.

Plus we have leaks suggesting it’s been considered before, with both a mostly-accurate Smash 4 text leak predicting them and a Smash 4 datamine having files for Rhythm Heaven playable content.

But… I am not expecting it to happen, unfortunately. During Steve’s presentation, Sakurai made a comment about abandoning character's due to them being unable to be done justice. I could easily see that being a rhythm rep, as that’s just… a hard thing to practically execute. It’d be nice though...

Isaac (Golden Sun)

Oh boy! Isaac speculation! Always a fun time. We covered this last time, but I guess this is a similar situation to Elma in a way: First we speculate about a new game and, as an extension to that, speculate about Smash Bros.

That’s fair, but Isaac has also specifically had Smash demand for a lot longer than Elma, including during the Ballot Era, which has still been used to decide DLC based on comments about Banjo. So, if Golden Sun is coming back, which trademarks indicate it will be, then why wouldn’t they decide to include Isaac?

I don’t know… Isaac could just be out-prioritized? Lots of characters will be both popular and topical.

You could say that about anyone.

We will be saying that about almost everyone…

Isaac’s got a lot of good stuff going for him. He’s got demand, he probably has a future of some sort, and his demand has been acknowledged before. It’s just a matter of if they actually, you know, choose him.

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Man, Nintendo mobile games have weird treatment in Smash. Fire Emblem Heroes got a couple of remixes, but no mobile game has any spirits whatsoever?

Yeah, but they’re mobile games. Sure, Nintendo makes money off of them, but are they really a core part of the Nintendo brand? A lot of Nintendo crossover games and spin-offs get similar treatment with a similar lack of content. They obviously just don’t care to represent that part of Nintendo fully.

Or it’s a gap that could be filled in! I mean, I’m not saying I approve of gacha mechanics, but they obviously make Nintendo money. Dragalia Lost could use an IP awareness boost and Nintendo knows how good Smash Bros is for that.

You know what else is good for brand awareness? An actual worldwide release.

Ouch.

But, yeah, sure, crossovers are good for boosting IP awareness… Hence why Dragalia Lost has had crossovers with Mega Man, Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, and is currently having a Persona 5 Strikers event.

But… you can do more? It’s not like having some in-game collabs prohibits having more collaborations out-of-game in the future.

It’s impossible to know for sure.

Are you… are you just the impossible to know person?

Let’s move on. A few broad categories remain in the Nintendo characters..

Concept: Pokemon Rep

Ugh, can we move on from Pokemon discussion?

Pokemon’s fairly evergreen though. I don’t think there’s a bad time to include a Pokemon in Smash Bros, even if we’re moving on from Sword/Shield at this point.

Yeah, but it’s overplayed. Sword and Shield got a spirit event already. They got their shout-out. Pokemon is big, but that doesn’t make it immortal and a guarantee.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee by any means, but… It still could happen. Pokemon will always be relevant. It’s an anniversary year and, heck, New Pokemon Snap is one of, like, 5 Nintendo games announced right now - and that’s counting the Japan-only Famicom Detective titles.

Yeah, but it’s not like Smash tends to celebrate Pokemon spin-offs anyway. I’d be surprised if Snap of all things were to break the trend.

I doubt we’d get a Snap pack or anything, but it’ll keep Pokemon in the popular discourse. It’s absurdly large. Pokemon has fans forever. If Sword/Shield controversy changes nothing, then nothing is going to change…

Speaking of anniversaries...

Concept: The Legend of Zelda Rep

Yeah, uh, similar situation here. Breath of the Wild 2 is one of the only announced Nintendo games, Age of Calamity got a spirit event, yet… a Zelda character is possible. Zelda has an anniversary this year and will be continually topical.

Though, unlike Pokemon, Zelda lacks a continued character presence.

Breath of the Wild 2 may be what breaks that argument though, as sharing a world is probably going to make some Zelda characters go from one-off to three-off in one console generation… which is a lot of Zelda, a series where most characters get one game or, occasionally, one game and also an appearance in Warriors years later.

True as well… Speaking of one-off franchises...

Concept: Fire Emblem Rep

OH BOY; THIS WOULD GO OVER WELL!

Yeah, uh, Fire Emblem will… probably have something else out before Smash DLC ends? Maybe? A new game would mean a new lord, or a new remake would mean a new-old lord. Fire Emblem is, uh, marketable to Smash fans. I highly doubt they would keep adding Fire Emblem characters if they didn’t sell well. It’s definitely less probable than Pokemon and Zelda having more content to pull from before 2021 is over, but it' still possible.

Yeah, though the producer of Fire Emblem Echoes indicated that the next remake he’d like to lead is FE6… Roy’s game.

True as well. Maybe what will stop Fire Emblem from getting another character is the most marketable pick already being in Smash Bros.

Also they could technically include a Heroes character! The Summoner even has some fresh new Smash-alt-able designs...

Oh, Fire Emblem and gacha. That'd end well...

Concept: Someone Nintendo We Don’t Know Even Know Exists Yet

This is also possible, honestly. This could overlap with a franchise we’ve already talked about - be it a new Pokemon, the lord of a new Fire Emblem, someone new from Breath of the Wild 2, someone new from an upcoming Kirby or Zelda game, or, heck, maybe a new Rhythm Heaven game will come with a new mascot character or protagonist that gets in. But, honestly, with Nintendo’s approach of announcing games a couple months or even a couple weeks before their games come out.

Yeah, uh, hard to speculate about stuff we don’t even know exists.

Isn’t that all of speculation?

Woah, deep man. You know what I mean. It’s fun to speculate about characters we know, even if it assumes the existence or specifics of games we vaguely know about… but regardless.

Shall we move on?

Let's! Next up, we’re talking about crossovers. These are all going to be third party characters who have had concept crossover games. To be clear, these are games developed by other companies for Nintendo, such as Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. We will discuss third party characters who have had Nintendo content in their games after this [editor's note: Whoops].

Okay! Have… that many likely characters had Nintendo crossovers?

Define “likely.”

Touche.

This won’t be a definitive list. This is a sampling. Additionally, a few of these franchises have a lot of different characters that could be chosen; we’ve just picked one to discuss the franchise in general.

Dr Eggman (Sonic, through Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games)

Okay, cool. Eggman has been getting a lot of attention after Sephiroth and he is from a franchise that has directly collaborated with Mario several times…. At the Olympics.

Hey, technically Mario and Sonic at the 2020 Olympic Games will be very relevant this year, with the Olympics actually happening in 2021.

Ouch. Sonic is going to be relevant this year in general though, with SEGA constantly teasing all their big Sonic projects in the works… even if thus far all we’ve gotten is a Netflix series and Sonic in Puyo Puyo Tetris 2.

Yeah… Problem is just… He may not be chosen.

Uh, yeah. Things are lining up potentially though! I’m unsure if the Olympics game matters in that case, but, you know, he’s an interesting character to consider.

Interesting. Let’s move on.

Ling Tong (Warriors, through Hyrule Warriors)

Oh, this is an interesting one. The Warriors franchise is constantly getting Nintendo crossovers. Honestly, I think it’d be fairly reasonable if someone mistook Warriors for a Nintendo IP. Age of Calamity has already become the best-selling Warriors game overall...

Yeah, but isn’t that an argument against a Warriors OC?

I don’t really think so? It’s proof Nintendo sees value in the IP.

Or it proves they see value in the mechanics and like to make Koei develop games for them…

This is… fair as well… I could see Nintendo choosing to showcase the original IP that they have greenlit so many spin-offs and crossovers of though? Plus it’s not like the Warriors OCs are just Warriors characters, but based on a strategy game series based on a set of histories which are, like, the basis for one of the important work of literatures in all of human history.

I thought it didn’t matter for Eggman. Collabs matter now?

Well. There’s differences between a concept crossover and a sports game spin-off?

Yeah. One includes the original character's and the other doesn’t.

Um. I mean. True…

Let’s move on.

Messiah (Shin Megami Tensei, through Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE)

Well, that name would definitely go over well.

Do you know a better name to refer to the Shin Megami Tensei protagonists in a group?

Nope, uh, that’s the one.

So, that’s what we’re going with.

Yeah, uh, Shin Megami Tensei is a franchise with a long Nintendo history that Nintendo frequently promotes, with SMTV being announced at the Nintendo Switch demonstration stream and being re-announced in the first Partner Presents, an announcement everyone, uh, definitely was happy to see! They also have released SMTIII, the only main mainline game not on Nintendo platforms, on the Switch in Japan and it’ll come out in English… eventually.

Only ATLUS would take months to release a port of an old game with slightly improved textures.

Hey, let’s be fair now! Also Level-5. Mum’s the word on the first Yo-kai Watch’s Switch port.

Ouch… Anyway, problem is SMT can easily be spirited away. There’s no shortage of opportunities to put in SMT content.

True as well. It’d be easy to give SMTV a spirit event and I honestly am fairly confident in one happening if we don’t get a character. ATLUS has just done too much with Nintendo for the current lack of anything Jack Frost to be not suspicious.

So, brand loyalty… Interesting, when TMS#FE is also a concept crossover, with only the broadest definition of "crossover." Let’s move on.

Shiren the Wanderer (Mystery Dungeon, through Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)

Oh boy. Yeah, uh, this makes Warriors IP look like The Legend of Zelda. This is a franchise that is so incredibly specific and niche that I imagine most people just assume that Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is the IP.

Well, hey, if he did someone make it, he’d be setting a new standard for “anime swordsman.”

You don’t think Shiren has a chance?

Not… really? Sure, he’s had games since the mid-90s, but he’s just… so niche. This isn’t like Warriors, where the franchise is most successful as a collaboration. This brand basically is one of collaborations, especially in English.

Why wouldn’t Nintendo want to promote a brand they have seen value in?

Because… Nintendo does want to sell this DLC, right? They do use Smash Bros slots for promotion as well, but they always have built-in fanbases.

Yeah, exactly! Why are we sorting it like this? Crossovers don’t mean anything.

We’re not sorting in order of likelihood.

Then why sort things at all?

There must be an order to things. Isn't this entire process a matter of pattern recognition?

I mean, to some extent...

Only to extent. Hm. Let's see if that opinion changes...

Anyway, time to go back on my break now.

 

[Commander_Alph]

So, I had big plans for this day, but I'm still pretty burnt out on speculation and couldn't push myself all the way through my planned dialogue... So, uh, if you want the start of a fight with myself about what it means to be "likely" in Smash speculation, then here's that! Note that I would have discussed plenty more characters, so I'm not purposefully excluding anyone... I also was trying to include some characters that I don't think are actually likely, but are interesting to me because they do things other "likely" characters do; I was not trying to say that everyone I speak about has a chance.

Maybe I'll finish it one day when I'm in more of a speculative mood. Maybe I won't. Who knows.

Link to the last day we did this and the last time I did this.

Spoiler: A Bit of a Dialogue About Smash Speculation

So, let’s begin with discussing first parties.

Woah, we’re going to be discussing third parties so much that first parties are their own category?

Well, yeah. This isn’t going to be a definitive list of every possible first party. Our goal is just to discuss options and potential. Let’s kick this off the way every Smash discussion seems to.

Rex (Xenoblade)

Are we really doing this again?

Apparently we are. Well, the reason for discussion is basically self-evident at this point: Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a big Nintendo game that has historically been signaled out as a candidate for Smash Bros representation

Yeah, sure… Do you know how many games meet that standard though? Not every character who could have been chosen if timing was better is going to get in.

I’m with the shadow on this one. Timing is important and potentially destructive.

Moreover, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 doesn’t lack content. It has music, which ARMS ever got in the base game.

Yeah, it technically has a couple tracks, but nothing that couldn’t be supplemented!

That’s true of most franchises. Yes, Xenoblade is a unique place, but it’s not like Sakurai hasn’t all-but-apologized for a character not being in Smash and then let fans sit with a Mii Costume before. Rex isn’t impossible, but he’s hardly a guarantee.

I wasn’t saying he was. I mean, is anyone a guarantee?

No.

Eh, probably not.

Look, Rex has a lot of good things going for him. Xenoblade isn’t a blockbuster, but it’s not a tiny franchise by any means - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 moving 2 million units isn’t anything to sneeze at. It has been signaled out before. There is room for improvement in his franchise’s representation…

Problem is that there’s not even a guarantee that we’d be getting Rex as that improvement! You know who doesn’t have any music from their game?

Elma (Xenoblade)

Ah, yes, this is true. Xenoblade Chronicles X is also one of the only games left trapped on the Wii U without asymmetric game design that would be functionally impossible to transport to the Switch… It also has no music and only a handful of spirits.

Exactly! We could get a port of X and Elma in Smash to promote it.

This is true, but I don’t love speculation that is based on speculation. It becomes kind of… speculation all the way down. She obviously merits discussion, but do we really think X would make it onto Switch a year after the first game had its definitive edition? Monolith Soft are wizards, but I don’t think they’re time-travelers?

There have been quicker turnarounds. It also isn’t like people don’t know who Elma is.

Eh, but most “promotional” picks tend to be right after their game is released or right before it. Heck, Byleth had half a year before theirs. The only time we’ve had a game reveal and Smash announcement happen at once was, like… Isabelle?

And Shulk, funnily enough.

That was even a Xenoblade port!

True! It is possible. It just really is pushing the limits of “Hey, if this all happens, then things could line up for our character!” It’s possible, but… there’s a lot of characters that things could line up for.

I’d get used to saying that. It’s going to happen a lot.

Oh god, it is, isn’t it…

Well, what’s next?

Bandana Dee (Kirby)

Yup, okay, that’s a character with guaranteed continued relevance if I’ve ever heard of one.

Is he really?

I mean, yeah. Bandana Dee has kind of slipped into the front row of the Kirby canon, ever since they’ve had a need for a fourth player.

Sure, but when you’re added as filler, you can be filtered out easily too. How’s Blue Toad doing in Mario U Deluxe?

I mean, he’s an alt? Which isn't nothing! Besides, Waddle Dee is cute and popular. He turns up in tonnes of Kirby media - I mean, think of the prevalence in things like the Kirby Cafe.

Well, congrats on citing an omelette in your Smash speculation… That’s a first. The point is obvious: Bandana Dee isn’t a mainstay, he's an extra character.

If he isn’t, then who is? How long do you have to be relevant to be relevant enough to please you?

Long enough that it’s clear you’re a unique character? Captain Toad is a particular Toad. Bandana Dee is sometimes swapped out for a Parasol Dee? They just aren’t consistent enough with this character for him to matter.

Why are we even having this debate when Piranha Plant is in the game? You talk about mixing up characters like we don’t have a mook whose side-special has it briefly turn into a different sub-species. Botanists must be so confused…

Smash Bros movesets are inconsistent at best with their obedience to canon. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume Dee could and would bounce around a bit, pardon the wordplay.

Look, Dee is a recurring player four in the Kirby franchise - heck, even a player two in things like the newest Kirby Fighters - and he’ll certainly be relevant throughout 2021, with a new Kirby project having been directly teased for this year. Combined with his prevalence in the ballot era, he kind of makes sense?

There’s a case to be made, sure, but it’s not like Kirby is a franchise that needs anything more to begin with. This isn’t like Sephiroph filling out an obvious lack of content. Sure, Sakurai is a bit biased towards his own Kirby games, but that bias is minimal in comparison to other omissions and, heck, not everyone even likes modern Kirby games.

Yeah, Star Allies is “only” hanging around 3 million units. Nothing good there…

Can we move on from this no-name please?

Sure, but you’re not going to like where we’re going.

Toad (Mario)

You’re kidding.

No.

Not even the Captain.

Meh.

Unbelievable.

Well, uh, this is an easy one to justify? Toad has been playable in Mario games for decades. People like Toads and they’re really marketable.

Yeah, but Smash Bros DLC exists to sell passes. Do you think Toad is going to get the masses rushing with their wallets in hand? Toad?

People do love Toad! I think you’re underestimating the dedication of casual gamers to the cute characters. Do you think that they make more money off of Fighter Pass sales or individual DLC?

That’s an interesting question! Impossible to definitively know, but interesting nonetheless. It’s hard to imagine what characters would min-max sales for people not dedicated enough to feel a desire to buy every character, but dedicated enough to buy DLC a couple years after the game’s release. I honestly don’t have an answer.

Well, uh, shall we move on to someone else with a similar debate?

Waluigi (Mario)

Okay, uh, let’s speedrun this: Loud requests. Mainstream. Mario character.

Meme requests. Other Mario characters are more mainstream - yes, including Toad. Mario character, but with so few Mario games he actually appears in, it’s hard to say if he even gets the full benefits the title “Mario character” implies. An objectively-nicher character like Geno or Fawful or Rabbid Peach would all be less known than Waluigi, but at least they have games all about them which you could pull content from!

Are you in favour of Toad or not?

I’m against him, but, like, at least he can fill a spirit board without making a Smash DLC that is a ****post?

I’m sure they could find a way to make Waluigi work. Mario Kart is already its own sub-series if they wanted to do something like a Waluigi Pinball stage… I mean, Mario Kart doesn’t exactly have a variety of stages. Would you like to play on Mario Circuit, Mario Circuit, or The Circuit de Mario?

Also no Mario Tennis stages!

Sure. They could do it. By why would they? We’ve got plenty of spin-offs to work with.

King Boo (Luigi’s Mansion)

Ah. Yeah. That’s a spin-off character with some meat.

I mean, Luigi’s Mansion already has a stage that is… Luigi’s Mansion.

Yeah, but Luigi himself only vaguely represents the game itself. There isn’t mechanical representation plus there is a recent-ish game still able to be promoted. You said it yourself: Byleth took a while too and Byleth was pre-pandemic, which potentially could have mucked up production schedules...

True! King Boo could be interesting for sure. There’s potential for more content from that universe.

And Luigi’s Mansion 3 never had a spirit event.

A lot of games didn’t get spirit events. I wouldn’t fix an argument on that. Honestly, we could say “It doesn’t have a spirit event” for half of the characters we’ll be covering…

This is true as well… It’s also still doubling-down on a first party franchise already in the game. Can we move on to the originals?

Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven)

Gosh… I feel bad for the Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven in general. Like, a rhythm game only has a couple songs in Smash? That’s just unfortunate. It has the most spirits of any franchise without a fighter, but still.

Plus we have leaks suggesting it’s been considered before, with both a mostly-accurate Smash 4 text leak predicting them and a Smash 4 datamine having files for Rhythm Heaven playable content.

But… I am not expecting it to happen, unfortunately. During Steve’s presentation, Sakurai made a comment about abandoning character's due to them being unable to be done justice. I could easily see that being a rhythm rep, as that’s just… a hard thing to practically execute. It’d be nice though...

Isaac (Golden Sun)

Oh boy! Isaac speculation! Always a fun time. We covered this last time, but I guess this is a similar situation to Elma in a way: First we speculate about a new game and, as an extension to that, speculate about Smash Bros.

That’s fair, but Isaac has also specifically had Smash demand for a lot longer than Elma, including during the Ballot Era, which has still been used to decide DLC based on comments about Banjo. So, if Golden Sun is coming back, which trademarks indicate it will be, then why wouldn’t they decide to include Isaac?

I don’t know… Isaac could just be out-prioritized? Lots of characters will be both popular and topical.

You could say that about anyone.

We will be saying that about almost everyone…

Isaac’s got a lot of good stuff going for him. He’s got demand, he probably has a future of some sort, and his demand has been acknowledged before. It’s just a matter of if they actually, you know, choose him.

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Man, Nintendo mobile games have weird treatment in Smash. Fire Emblem Heroes got a couple of remixes, but no mobile game has any spirits whatsoever?

Yeah, but they’re mobile games. Sure, Nintendo makes money off of them, but are they really a core part of the Nintendo brand? A lot of Nintendo crossover games and spin-offs get similar treatment with a similar lack of content. They obviously just don’t care to represent that part of Nintendo fully.

Or it’s a gap that could be filled in! I mean, I’m not saying I approve of gacha mechanics, but they obviously make Nintendo money. Dragalia Lost could use an IP awareness boost and Nintendo knows how good Smash Bros is for that.

You know what else is good for brand awareness? An actual worldwide release.

Ouch.

But, yeah, sure, crossovers are good for boosting IP awareness… Hence why Dragalia Lost has had crossovers with Mega Man, Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, and is currently having a Persona 5 Strikers event.

But… you can do more? It’s not like having some in-game collabs prohibits having more collaborations out-of-game in the future.

It’s impossible to know for sure.

Are you… are you just the impossible to know person?

Let’s move on. A few broad categories remain in the Nintendo characters..

Concept: Pokemon Rep

Ugh, can we move on from Pokemon discussion?

Pokemon’s fairly evergreen though. I don’t think there’s a bad time to include a Pokemon in Smash Bros, even if we’re moving on from Sword/Shield at this point.

Yeah, but it’s overplayed. Sword and Shield got a spirit event already. They got their shout-out. Pokemon is big, but that doesn’t make it immortal and a guarantee.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee by any means, but… It still could happen. Pokemon will always be relevant. It’s an anniversary year and, heck, New Pokemon Snap is one of, like, 5 Nintendo games announced right now - and that’s counting the Japan-only Famicom Detective titles.

Yeah, but it’s not like Smash tends to celebrate Pokemon spin-offs anyway. I’d be surprised if Snap of all things were to break the trend.

I doubt we’d get a Snap pack or anything, but it’ll keep Pokemon in the popular discourse. It’s absurdly large. Pokemon has fans forever. If Sword/Shield controversy changes nothing, then nothing is going to change…

Speaking of anniversaries...

Concept: The Legend of Zelda Rep

Yeah, uh, similar situation here. Breath of the Wild 2 is one of the only announced Nintendo games, Age of Calamity got a spirit event, yet… a Zelda character is possible. Zelda has an anniversary this year and will be continually topical.

Though, unlike Pokemon, Zelda lacks a continued character presence.

Breath of the Wild 2 may be what breaks that argument though, as sharing a world is probably going to make some Zelda characters go from one-off to three-off in one console generation… which is a lot of Zelda, a series where most characters get one game or, occasionally, one game and also an appearance in Warriors years later.

True as well… Speaking of one-off franchises...

Concept: Fire Emblem Rep

OH BOY; THIS WOULD GO OVER WELL!

Yeah, uh, Fire Emblem will… probably have something else out before Smash DLC ends? Maybe? A new game would mean a new lord, or a new remake would mean a new-old lord. Fire Emblem is, uh, marketable to Smash fans. I highly doubt they would keep adding Fire Emblem characters if they didn’t sell well. It’s definitely less probable than Pokemon and Zelda having more content to pull from before 2021 is over, but it' still possible.

Yeah, though the producer of Fire Emblem Echoes indicated that the next remake he’d like to lead is FE6… Roy’s game.

True as well. Maybe what will stop Fire Emblem from getting another character is the most marketable pick already being in Smash Bros.

Also they could technically include a Heroes character! The Summoner even has some fresh new Smash-alt-able designs...

Oh, Fire Emblem and gacha. That'd end well...

Concept: Someone Nintendo We Don’t Know Even Know Exists Yet

This is also possible, honestly. This could overlap with a franchise we’ve already talked about - be it a new Pokemon, the lord of a new Fire Emblem, someone new from Breath of the Wild 2, someone new from an upcoming Kirby or Zelda game, or, heck, maybe a new Rhythm Heaven game will come with a new mascot character or protagonist that gets in. But, honestly, with Nintendo’s approach of announcing games a couple months or even a couple weeks before their games come out.

Yeah, uh, hard to speculate about stuff we don’t even know exists.

Isn’t that all of speculation?

Woah, deep man. You know what I mean. It’s fun to speculate about characters we know, even if it assumes the existence or specifics of games we vaguely know about… but regardless.

Shall we move on?

Let's! Next up, we’re talking about crossovers. These are all going to be third party characters who have had concept crossover games. To be clear, these are games developed by other companies for Nintendo, such as Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. We will discuss third party characters who have had Nintendo content in their games after this [editor's note: Whoops].

Okay! Have… that many likely characters had Nintendo crossovers?

Define “likely.”

Touche.

This won’t be a definitive list. This is a sampling. Additionally, a few of these franchises have a lot of different characters that could be chosen; we’ve just picked one to discuss the franchise in general.

Dr Eggman (Sonic, through Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games)

Okay, cool. Eggman has been getting a lot of attention after Sephiroth and he is from a franchise that has directly collaborated with Mario several times…. At the Olympics.

Hey, technically Mario and Sonic at the 2020 Olympic Games will be very relevant this year, with the Olympics actually happening in 2021.

Ouch. Sonic is going to be relevant this year in general though, with SEGA constantly teasing all their big Sonic projects in the works… even if thus far all we’ve gotten is a Netflix series and Sonic in Puyo Puyo Tetris 2.

Yeah… Problem is just… He may not be chosen.

Uh, yeah. Things are lining up potentially though! I’m unsure if the Olympics game matters in that case, but, you know, he’s an interesting character to consider.

Interesting. Let’s move on.

Ling Tong (Warriors, through Hyrule Warriors)

Oh, this is an interesting one. The Warriors franchise is constantly getting Nintendo crossovers. Honestly, I think it’d be fairly reasonable if someone mistook Warriors for a Nintendo IP. Age of Calamity has already become the best-selling Warriors game overall...

Yeah, but isn’t that an argument against a Warriors OC?

I don’t really think so? It’s proof Nintendo sees value in the IP.

Or it proves they see value in the mechanics and like to make Koei develop games for them…

This is… fair as well… I could see Nintendo choosing to showcase the original IP that they have greenlit so many spin-offs and crossovers of though? Plus it’s not like the Warriors OCs are just Warriors characters, but based on a strategy game series based on a set of histories which are, like, the basis for one of the important work of literatures in all of human history.

I thought it didn’t matter for Eggman. Collabs matter now?

Well. There’s differences between a concept crossover and a sports game spin-off?

Yeah. One includes the original character's and the other doesn’t.

Um. I mean. True…

Let’s move on.

Messiah (Shin Megami Tensei, through Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE)

Well, that name would definitely go over well.

Do you know a better name to refer to the Shin Megami Tensei protagonists in a group?

Nope, uh, that’s the one.

So, that’s what we’re going with.

Yeah, uh, Shin Megami Tensei is a franchise with a long Nintendo history that Nintendo frequently promotes, with SMTV being announced at the Nintendo Switch demonstration stream and being re-announced in the first Partner Presents, an announcement everyone, uh, definitely was happy to see! They also have released SMTIII, the only main mainline game not on Nintendo platforms, on the Switch in Japan and it’ll come out in English… eventually.

Only ATLUS would take months to release a port of an old game with slightly improved textures.

Hey, let’s be fair now! Also Level-5. Mum’s the word on the first Yo-kai Watch’s Switch port.

Ouch… Anyway, problem is SMT can easily be spirited away. There’s no shortage of opportunities to put in SMT content.

True as well. It’d be easy to give SMTV a spirit event and I honestly am fairly confident in one happening if we don’t get a character. ATLUS has just done too much with Nintendo for the current lack of anything Jack Frost to be not suspicious.

So, brand loyalty… Interesting, when TMS#FE is also a concept crossover, with only the broadest definition of "crossover." Let’s move on.

Shiren the Wanderer (Mystery Dungeon, through Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)

Oh boy. Yeah, uh, this makes Warriors IP look like The Legend of Zelda. This is a franchise that is so incredibly specific and niche that I imagine most people just assume that Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is the IP.

Well, hey, if he did someone make it, he’d be setting a new standard for “anime swordsman.”

You don’t think Shiren has a chance?

Not… really? Sure, he’s had games since the mid-90s, but he’s just… so niche. This isn’t like Warriors, where the franchise is most successful as a collaboration. This brand basically is one of collaborations, especially in English.

Why wouldn’t Nintendo want to promote a brand they have seen value in?

Because… Nintendo does want to sell this DLC, right? They do use Smash Bros slots for promotion as well, but they always have built-in fanbases.

Yeah, exactly! Why are we sorting it like this? Crossovers don’t mean anything.

We’re not sorting in order of likelihood.

Then why sort things at all?

There must be an order to things. Isn't this entire process a matter of pattern recognition?

I mean, to some extent...

Only to extent. Hm. Let's see if that opinion changes...

Anyway, time to go back on my break now.

Why did you mentioned Ling Tong in the warriors section?

 

[chocolatejr9]

So, I had big plans for this day, but I'm still pretty burnt out on speculation and couldn't push myself all the way through my planned dialogue... So, uh, if you want the start of a fight with myself about what it means to be "likely" in Smash speculation, then here's that! Note that I would have discussed plenty more characters, so I'm not purposefully excluding anyone... I also was trying to include some characters that I don't think are actually likely, but are interesting to me because they do things other "likely" characters do; I was not trying to say that everyone I speak about has a chance.

Maybe I'll finish it one day when I'm in more of a speculative mood. Maybe I won't. Who knows.

Link to the last day we did this and the last time I did this.

Spoiler: A Bit of a Dialogue About Smash Speculation

So, let’s begin with discussing first parties.

Woah, we’re going to be discussing third parties so much that first parties are their own category?

Well, yeah. This isn’t going to be a definitive list of every possible first party. Our goal is just to discuss options and potential. Let’s kick this off the way every Smash discussion seems to.

Rex (Xenoblade)

Are we really doing this again?

Apparently we are. Well, the reason for discussion is basically self-evident at this point: Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a big Nintendo game that has historically been signaled out as a candidate for Smash Bros representation

Yeah, sure… Do you know how many games meet that standard though? Not every character who could have been chosen if timing was better is going to get in.

I’m with the shadow on this one. Timing is important and potentially destructive.

Moreover, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 doesn’t lack content. It has music, which ARMS ever got in the base game.

Yeah, it technically has a couple tracks, but nothing that couldn’t be supplemented!

That’s true of most franchises. Yes, Xenoblade is a unique place, but it’s not like Sakurai hasn’t all-but-apologized for a character not being in Smash and then let fans sit with a Mii Costume before. Rex isn’t impossible, but he’s hardly a guarantee.

I wasn’t saying he was. I mean, is anyone a guarantee?

No.

Eh, probably not.

Look, Rex has a lot of good things going for him. Xenoblade isn’t a blockbuster, but it’s not a tiny franchise by any means - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 moving 2 million units isn’t anything to sneeze at. It has been signaled out before. There is room for improvement in his franchise’s representation…

Problem is that there’s not even a guarantee that we’d be getting Rex as that improvement! You know who doesn’t have any music from their game?

Elma (Xenoblade)

Ah, yes, this is true. Xenoblade Chronicles X is also one of the only games left trapped on the Wii U without asymmetric game design that would be functionally impossible to transport to the Switch… It also has no music and only a handful of spirits.

Exactly! We could get a port of X and Elma in Smash to promote it.

This is true, but I don’t love speculation that is based on speculation. It becomes kind of… speculation all the way down. She obviously merits discussion, but do we really think X would make it onto Switch a year after the first game had its definitive edition? Monolith Soft are wizards, but I don’t think they’re time-travelers?

There have been quicker turnarounds. It also isn’t like people don’t know who Elma is.

Eh, but most “promotional” picks tend to be right after their game is released or right before it. Heck, Byleth had half a year before theirs. The only time we’ve had a game reveal and Smash announcement happen at once was, like… Isabelle?

And Shulk, funnily enough.

That was even a Xenoblade port!

True! It is possible. It just really is pushing the limits of “Hey, if this all happens, then things could line up for our character!” It’s possible, but… there’s a lot of characters that things could line up for.

I’d get used to saying that. It’s going to happen a lot.

Oh god, it is, isn’t it…

Well, what’s next?

Bandana Dee (Kirby)

Yup, okay, that’s a character with guaranteed continued relevance if I’ve ever heard of one.

Is he really?

I mean, yeah. Bandana Dee has kind of slipped into the front row of the Kirby canon, ever since they’ve had a need for a fourth player.

Sure, but when you’re added as filler, you can be filtered out easily too. How’s Blue Toad doing in Mario U Deluxe?

I mean, he’s an alt? Which isn't nothing! Besides, Waddle Dee is cute and popular. He turns up in tonnes of Kirby media - I mean, think of the prevalence in things like the Kirby Cafe.

Well, congrats on citing an omelette in your Smash speculation… That’s a first. The point is obvious: Bandana Dee isn’t a mainstay, he's an extra character.

If he isn’t, then who is? How long do you have to be relevant to be relevant enough to please you?

Long enough that it’s clear you’re a unique character? Captain Toad is a particular Toad. Bandana Dee is sometimes swapped out for a Parasol Dee? They just aren’t consistent enough with this character for him to matter.

Why are we even having this debate when Piranha Plant is in the game? You talk about mixing up characters like we don’t have a mook whose side-special has it briefly turn into a different sub-species. Botanists must be so confused…

Smash Bros movesets are inconsistent at best with their obedience to canon. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume Dee could and would bounce around a bit, pardon the wordplay.

Look, Dee is a recurring player four in the Kirby franchise - heck, even a player two in things like the newest Kirby Fighters - and he’ll certainly be relevant throughout 2021, with a new Kirby project having been directly teased for this year. Combined with his prevalence in the ballot era, he kind of makes sense?

There’s a case to be made, sure, but it’s not like Kirby is a franchise that needs anything more to begin with. This isn’t like Sephiroph filling out an obvious lack of content. Sure, Sakurai is a bit biased towards his own Kirby games, but that bias is minimal in comparison to other omissions and, heck, not everyone even likes modern Kirby games.

Yeah, Star Allies is “only” hanging around 3 million units. Nothing good there…

Can we move on from this no-name please?

Sure, but you’re not going to like where we’re going.

Toad (Mario)

You’re kidding.

No.

Not even the Captain.

Meh.

Unbelievable.

Well, uh, this is an easy one to justify? Toad has been playable in Mario games for decades. People like Toads and they’re really marketable.

Yeah, but Smash Bros DLC exists to sell passes. Do you think Toad is going to get the masses rushing with their wallets in hand? Toad?

People do love Toad! I think you’re underestimating the dedication of casual gamers to the cute characters. Do you think that they make more money off of Fighter Pass sales or individual DLC?

That’s an interesting question! Impossible to definitively know, but interesting nonetheless. It’s hard to imagine what characters would min-max sales for people not dedicated enough to feel a desire to buy every character, but dedicated enough to buy DLC a couple years after the game’s release. I honestly don’t have an answer.

Well, uh, shall we move on to someone else with a similar debate?

Waluigi (Mario)

Okay, uh, let’s speedrun this: Loud requests. Mainstream. Mario character.

Meme requests. Other Mario characters are more mainstream - yes, including Toad. Mario character, but with so few Mario games he actually appears in, it’s hard to say if he even gets the full benefits the title “Mario character” implies. An objectively-nicher character like Geno or Fawful or Rabbid Peach would all be less known than Waluigi, but at least they have games all about them which you could pull content from!

Are you in favour of Toad or not?

I’m against him, but, like, at least he can fill a spirit board without making a Smash DLC that is a ****post?

I’m sure they could find a way to make Waluigi work. Mario Kart is already its own sub-series if they wanted to do something like a Waluigi Pinball stage… I mean, Mario Kart doesn’t exactly have a variety of stages. Would you like to play on Mario Circuit, Mario Circuit, or The Circuit de Mario?

Also no Mario Tennis stages!

Sure. They could do it. By why would they? We’ve got plenty of spin-offs to work with.

King Boo (Luigi’s Mansion)

Ah. Yeah. That’s a spin-off character with some meat.

I mean, Luigi’s Mansion already has a stage that is… Luigi’s Mansion.

Yeah, but Luigi himself only vaguely represents the game itself. There isn’t mechanical representation plus there is a recent-ish game still able to be promoted. You said it yourself: Byleth took a while too and Byleth was pre-pandemic, which potentially could have mucked up production schedules...

True! King Boo could be interesting for sure. There’s potential for more content from that universe.

And Luigi’s Mansion 3 never had a spirit event.

A lot of games didn’t get spirit events. I wouldn’t fix an argument on that. Honestly, we could say “It doesn’t have a spirit event” for half of the characters we’ll be covering…

This is true as well… It’s also still doubling-down on a first party franchise already in the game. Can we move on to the originals?

Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven)

Gosh… I feel bad for the Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven in general. Like, a rhythm game only has a couple songs in Smash? That’s just unfortunate. It has the most spirits of any franchise without a fighter, but still.

Plus we have leaks suggesting it’s been considered before, with both a mostly-accurate Smash 4 text leak predicting them and a Smash 4 datamine having files for Rhythm Heaven playable content.

But… I am not expecting it to happen, unfortunately. During Steve’s presentation, Sakurai made a comment about abandoning character's due to them being unable to be done justice. I could easily see that being a rhythm rep, as that’s just… a hard thing to practically execute. It’d be nice though...

Isaac (Golden Sun)

Oh boy! Isaac speculation! Always a fun time. We covered this last time, but I guess this is a similar situation to Elma in a way: First we speculate about a new game and, as an extension to that, speculate about Smash Bros.

That’s fair, but Isaac has also specifically had Smash demand for a lot longer than Elma, including during the Ballot Era, which has still been used to decide DLC based on comments about Banjo. So, if Golden Sun is coming back, which trademarks indicate it will be, then why wouldn’t they decide to include Isaac?

I don’t know… Isaac could just be out-prioritized? Lots of characters will be both popular and topical.

You could say that about anyone.

We will be saying that about almost everyone…

Isaac’s got a lot of good stuff going for him. He’s got demand, he probably has a future of some sort, and his demand has been acknowledged before. It’s just a matter of if they actually, you know, choose him.

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Man, Nintendo mobile games have weird treatment in Smash. Fire Emblem Heroes got a couple of remixes, but no mobile game has any spirits whatsoever?

Yeah, but they’re mobile games. Sure, Nintendo makes money off of them, but are they really a core part of the Nintendo brand? A lot of Nintendo crossover games and spin-offs get similar treatment with a similar lack of content. They obviously just don’t care to represent that part of Nintendo fully.

Or it’s a gap that could be filled in! I mean, I’m not saying I approve of gacha mechanics, but they obviously make Nintendo money. Dragalia Lost could use an IP awareness boost and Nintendo knows how good Smash Bros is for that.

You know what else is good for brand awareness? An actual worldwide release.

Ouch.

But, yeah, sure, crossovers are good for boosting IP awareness… Hence why Dragalia Lost has had crossovers with Mega Man, Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, and is currently having a Persona 5 Strikers event.

But… you can do more? It’s not like having some in-game collabs prohibits having more collaborations out-of-game in the future.

It’s impossible to know for sure.

Are you… are you just the impossible to know person?

Let’s move on. A few broad categories remain in the Nintendo characters..

Concept: Pokemon Rep

Ugh, can we move on from Pokemon discussion?

Pokemon’s fairly evergreen though. I don’t think there’s a bad time to include a Pokemon in Smash Bros, even if we’re moving on from Sword/Shield at this point.

Yeah, but it’s overplayed. Sword and Shield got a spirit event already. They got their shout-out. Pokemon is big, but that doesn’t make it immortal and a guarantee.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee by any means, but… It still could happen. Pokemon will always be relevant. It’s an anniversary year and, heck, New Pokemon Snap is one of, like, 5 Nintendo games announced right now - and that’s counting the Japan-only Famicom Detective titles.

Yeah, but it’s not like Smash tends to celebrate Pokemon spin-offs anyway. I’d be surprised if Snap of all things were to break the trend.

I doubt we’d get a Snap pack or anything, but it’ll keep Pokemon in the popular discourse. It’s absurdly large. Pokemon has fans forever. If Sword/Shield controversy changes nothing, then nothing is going to change…

Speaking of anniversaries...

Concept: The Legend of Zelda Rep

Yeah, uh, similar situation here. Breath of the Wild 2 is one of the only announced Nintendo games, Age of Calamity got a spirit event, yet… a Zelda character is possible. Zelda has an anniversary this year and will be continually topical.

Though, unlike Pokemon, Zelda lacks a continued character presence.

Breath of the Wild 2 may be what breaks that argument though, as sharing a world is probably going to make some Zelda characters go from one-off to three-off in one console generation… which is a lot of Zelda, a series where most characters get one game or, occasionally, one game and also an appearance in Warriors years later.

True as well… Speaking of one-off franchises...

Concept: Fire Emblem Rep

OH BOY; THIS WOULD GO OVER WELL!

Yeah, uh, Fire Emblem will… probably have something else out before Smash DLC ends? Maybe? A new game would mean a new lord, or a new remake would mean a new-old lord. Fire Emblem is, uh, marketable to Smash fans. I highly doubt they would keep adding Fire Emblem characters if they didn’t sell well. It’s definitely less probable than Pokemon and Zelda having more content to pull from before 2021 is over, but it' still possible.

Yeah, though the producer of Fire Emblem Echoes indicated that the next remake he’d like to lead is FE6… Roy’s game.

True as well. Maybe what will stop Fire Emblem from getting another character is the most marketable pick already being in Smash Bros.

Also they could technically include a Heroes character! The Summoner even has some fresh new Smash-alt-able designs...

Oh, Fire Emblem and gacha. That'd end well...

Concept: Someone Nintendo We Don’t Know Even Know Exists Yet

This is also possible, honestly. This could overlap with a franchise we’ve already talked about - be it a new Pokemon, the lord of a new Fire Emblem, someone new from Breath of the Wild 2, someone new from an upcoming Kirby or Zelda game, or, heck, maybe a new Rhythm Heaven game will come with a new mascot character or protagonist that gets in. But, honestly, with Nintendo’s approach of announcing games a couple months or even a couple weeks before their games come out.

Yeah, uh, hard to speculate about stuff we don’t even know exists.

Isn’t that all of speculation?

Woah, deep man. You know what I mean. It’s fun to speculate about characters we know, even if it assumes the existence or specifics of games we vaguely know about… but regardless.

Shall we move on?

Let's! Next up, we’re talking about crossovers. These are all going to be third party characters who have had concept crossover games. To be clear, these are games developed by other companies for Nintendo, such as Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. We will discuss third party characters who have had Nintendo content in their games after this [editor's note: Whoops].

Okay! Have… that many likely characters had Nintendo crossovers?

Define “likely.”

Touche.

This won’t be a definitive list. This is a sampling. Additionally, a few of these franchises have a lot of different characters that could be chosen; we’ve just picked one to discuss the franchise in general.

Dr Eggman (Sonic, through Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games)

Okay, cool. Eggman has been getting a lot of attention after Sephiroth and he is from a franchise that has directly collaborated with Mario several times…. At the Olympics.

Hey, technically Mario and Sonic at the 2020 Olympic Games will be very relevant this year, with the Olympics actually happening in 2021.

Ouch. Sonic is going to be relevant this year in general though, with SEGA constantly teasing all their big Sonic projects in the works… even if thus far all we’ve gotten is a Netflix series and Sonic in Puyo Puyo Tetris 2.

Yeah… Problem is just… He may not be chosen.

Uh, yeah. Things are lining up potentially though! I’m unsure if the Olympics game matters in that case, but, you know, he’s an interesting character to consider.

Interesting. Let’s move on.

Ling Tong (Warriors, through Hyrule Warriors)

Oh, this is an interesting one. The Warriors franchise is constantly getting Nintendo crossovers. Honestly, I think it’d be fairly reasonable if someone mistook Warriors for a Nintendo IP. Age of Calamity has already become the best-selling Warriors game overall...

Yeah, but isn’t that an argument against a Warriors OC?

I don’t really think so? It’s proof Nintendo sees value in the IP.

Or it proves they see value in the mechanics and like to make Koei develop games for them…

This is… fair as well… I could see Nintendo choosing to showcase the original IP that they have greenlit so many spin-offs and crossovers of though? Plus it’s not like the Warriors OCs are just Warriors characters, but based on a strategy game series based on a set of histories which are, like, the basis for one of the important work of literatures in all of human history.

I thought it didn’t matter for Eggman. Collabs matter now?

Well. There’s differences between a concept crossover and a sports game spin-off?

Yeah. One includes the original character's and the other doesn’t.

Um. I mean. True…

Let’s move on.

Messiah (Shin Megami Tensei, through Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE)

Well, that name would definitely go over well.

Do you know a better name to refer to the Shin Megami Tensei protagonists in a group?

Nope, uh, that’s the one.

So, that’s what we’re going with.

Yeah, uh, Shin Megami Tensei is a franchise with a long Nintendo history that Nintendo frequently promotes, with SMTV being announced at the Nintendo Switch demonstration stream and being re-announced in the first Partner Presents, an announcement everyone, uh, definitely was happy to see! They also have released SMTIII, the only main mainline game not on Nintendo platforms, on the Switch in Japan and it’ll come out in English… eventually.

Only ATLUS would take months to release a port of an old game with slightly improved textures.

Hey, let’s be fair now! Also Level-5. Mum’s the word on the first Yo-kai Watch’s Switch port.

Ouch… Anyway, problem is SMT can easily be spirited away. There’s no shortage of opportunities to put in SMT content.

True as well. It’d be easy to give SMTV a spirit event and I honestly am fairly confident in one happening if we don’t get a character. ATLUS has just done too much with Nintendo for the current lack of anything Jack Frost to be not suspicious.

So, brand loyalty… Interesting, when TMS#FE is also a concept crossover, with only the broadest definition of "crossover." Let’s move on.

Shiren the Wanderer (Mystery Dungeon, through Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)

Oh boy. Yeah, uh, this makes Warriors IP look like The Legend of Zelda. This is a franchise that is so incredibly specific and niche that I imagine most people just assume that Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is the IP.

Well, hey, if he did someone make it, he’d be setting a new standard for “anime swordsman.”

You don’t think Shiren has a chance?

Not… really? Sure, he’s had games since the mid-90s, but he’s just… so niche. This isn’t like Warriors, where the franchise is most successful as a collaboration. This brand basically is one of collaborations, especially in English.

Why wouldn’t Nintendo want to promote a brand they have seen value in?

Because… Nintendo does want to sell this DLC, right? They do use Smash Bros slots for promotion as well, but they always have built-in fanbases.

Yeah, exactly! Why are we sorting it like this? Crossovers don’t mean anything.

We’re not sorting in order of likelihood.

Then why sort things at all?

There must be an order to things. Isn't this entire process a matter of pattern recognition?

I mean, to some extent...

Only to extent. Hm. Let's see if that opinion changes...

Anyway, time to go back on my break now.

It's not everyday I get to see somebody argueing with themself...

 

[amageish]

Why did you mentioned Ling Tong in the warriors section?

Honestly, I was considering writing an entire sub-debate about who would be the best Warriors rep... then I didn't feel like doing that and just picked one of the many many many options as the header... So, uh, for no good reason.

 

[SharkLord]

Honestly, I was considering writing an entire sub-debate about who would be the best Warriors rep... then I didn't feel like doing that and just picked one of the many many many options as the header... So, uh, for no good reason.

For the Warriors rep, I shall talk about...
spins wheel
Hmm yes I shall talk about Ling Tong

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Lu Bu or Zhao Yun would be the Warriors frontrunner no doubt xD

 

[fogbadge]

So, I had big plans for this day, but I'm still pretty burnt out on speculation and couldn't push myself all the way through my planned dialogue... So, uh, if you want the start of a fight with myself about what it means to be "likely" in Smash speculation, then here's that! Note that I would have discussed plenty more characters, so I'm not purposefully excluding anyone... I also was trying to include some characters that I don't think are actually likely, but are interesting to me because they do things other "likely" characters do; I was not trying to say that everyone I speak about has a chance.

Maybe I'll finish it one day when I'm in more of a speculative mood. Maybe I won't. Who knows.

Link to the last day we did this and the last time I did this.

Spoiler: A Bit of a Dialogue About Smash Speculation

So, let’s begin with discussing first parties.

Woah, we’re going to be discussing third parties so much that first parties are their own category?

Well, yeah. This isn’t going to be a definitive list of every possible first party. Our goal is just to discuss options and potential. Let’s kick this off the way every Smash discussion seems to.

Rex (Xenoblade)

Are we really doing this again?

Apparently we are. Well, the reason for discussion is basically self-evident at this point: Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a big Nintendo game that has historically been signaled out as a candidate for Smash Bros representation

Yeah, sure… Do you know how many games meet that standard though? Not every character who could have been chosen if timing was better is going to get in.

I’m with the shadow on this one. Timing is important and potentially destructive.

Moreover, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 doesn’t lack content. It has music, which ARMS ever got in the base game.

Yeah, it technically has a couple tracks, but nothing that couldn’t be supplemented!

That’s true of most franchises. Yes, Xenoblade is a unique place, but it’s not like Sakurai hasn’t all-but-apologized for a character not being in Smash and then let fans sit with a Mii Costume before. Rex isn’t impossible, but he’s hardly a guarantee.

I wasn’t saying he was. I mean, is anyone a guarantee?

No.

Eh, probably not.

Look, Rex has a lot of good things going for him. Xenoblade isn’t a blockbuster, but it’s not a tiny franchise by any means - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 moving 2 million units isn’t anything to sneeze at. It has been signaled out before. There is room for improvement in his franchise’s representation…

Problem is that there’s not even a guarantee that we’d be getting Rex as that improvement! You know who doesn’t have any music from their game?

Elma (Xenoblade)

Ah, yes, this is true. Xenoblade Chronicles X is also one of the only games left trapped on the Wii U without asymmetric game design that would be functionally impossible to transport to the Switch… It also has no music and only a handful of spirits.

Exactly! We could get a port of X and Elma in Smash to promote it.

This is true, but I don’t love speculation that is based on speculation. It becomes kind of… speculation all the way down. She obviously merits discussion, but do we really think X would make it onto Switch a year after the first game had its definitive edition? Monolith Soft are wizards, but I don’t think they’re time-travelers?

There have been quicker turnarounds. It also isn’t like people don’t know who Elma is.

Eh, but most “promotional” picks tend to be right after their game is released or right before it. Heck, Byleth had half a year before theirs. The only time we’ve had a game reveal and Smash announcement happen at once was, like… Isabelle?

And Shulk, funnily enough.

That was even a Xenoblade port!

True! It is possible. It just really is pushing the limits of “Hey, if this all happens, then things could line up for our character!” It’s possible, but… there’s a lot of characters that things could line up for.

I’d get used to saying that. It’s going to happen a lot.

Oh god, it is, isn’t it…

Well, what’s next?

Bandana Dee (Kirby)

Yup, okay, that’s a character with guaranteed continued relevance if I’ve ever heard of one.

Is he really?

I mean, yeah. Bandana Dee has kind of slipped into the front row of the Kirby canon, ever since they’ve had a need for a fourth player.

Sure, but when you’re added as filler, you can be filtered out easily too. How’s Blue Toad doing in Mario U Deluxe?

I mean, he’s an alt? Which isn't nothing! Besides, Waddle Dee is cute and popular. He turns up in tonnes of Kirby media - I mean, think of the prevalence in things like the Kirby Cafe.

Well, congrats on citing an omelette in your Smash speculation… That’s a first. The point is obvious: Bandana Dee isn’t a mainstay, he's an extra character.

If he isn’t, then who is? How long do you have to be relevant to be relevant enough to please you?

Long enough that it’s clear you’re a unique character? Captain Toad is a particular Toad. Bandana Dee is sometimes swapped out for a Parasol Dee? They just aren’t consistent enough with this character for him to matter.

Why are we even having this debate when Piranha Plant is in the game? You talk about mixing up characters like we don’t have a mook whose side-special has it briefly turn into a different sub-species. Botanists must be so confused…

Smash Bros movesets are inconsistent at best with their obedience to canon. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume Dee could and would bounce around a bit, pardon the wordplay.

Look, Dee is a recurring player four in the Kirby franchise - heck, even a player two in things like the newest Kirby Fighters - and he’ll certainly be relevant throughout 2021, with a new Kirby project having been directly teased for this year. Combined with his prevalence in the ballot era, he kind of makes sense?

There’s a case to be made, sure, but it’s not like Kirby is a franchise that needs anything more to begin with. This isn’t like Sephiroph filling out an obvious lack of content. Sure, Sakurai is a bit biased towards his own Kirby games, but that bias is minimal in comparison to other omissions and, heck, not everyone even likes modern Kirby games.

Yeah, Star Allies is “only” hanging around 3 million units. Nothing good there…

Can we move on from this no-name please?

Sure, but you’re not going to like where we’re going.

Toad (Mario)

You’re kidding.

No.

Not even the Captain.

Meh.

Unbelievable.

Well, uh, this is an easy one to justify? Toad has been playable in Mario games for decades. People like Toads and they’re really marketable.

Yeah, but Smash Bros DLC exists to sell passes. Do you think Toad is going to get the masses rushing with their wallets in hand? Toad?

People do love Toad! I think you’re underestimating the dedication of casual gamers to the cute characters. Do you think that they make more money off of Fighter Pass sales or individual DLC?

That’s an interesting question! Impossible to definitively know, but interesting nonetheless. It’s hard to imagine what characters would min-max sales for people not dedicated enough to feel a desire to buy every character, but dedicated enough to buy DLC a couple years after the game’s release. I honestly don’t have an answer.

Well, uh, shall we move on to someone else with a similar debate?

Waluigi (Mario)

Okay, uh, let’s speedrun this: Loud requests. Mainstream. Mario character.

Meme requests. Other Mario characters are more mainstream - yes, including Toad. Mario character, but with so few Mario games he actually appears in, it’s hard to say if he even gets the full benefits the title “Mario character” implies. An objectively-nicher character like Geno or Fawful or Rabbid Peach would all be less known than Waluigi, but at least they have games all about them which you could pull content from!

Are you in favour of Toad or not?

I’m against him, but, like, at least he can fill a spirit board without making a Smash DLC that is a ****post?

I’m sure they could find a way to make Waluigi work. Mario Kart is already its own sub-series if they wanted to do something like a Waluigi Pinball stage… I mean, Mario Kart doesn’t exactly have a variety of stages. Would you like to play on Mario Circuit, Mario Circuit, or The Circuit de Mario?

Also no Mario Tennis stages!

Sure. They could do it. By why would they? We’ve got plenty of spin-offs to work with.

King Boo (Luigi’s Mansion)

Ah. Yeah. That’s a spin-off character with some meat.

I mean, Luigi’s Mansion already has a stage that is… Luigi’s Mansion.

Yeah, but Luigi himself only vaguely represents the game itself. There isn’t mechanical representation plus there is a recent-ish game still able to be promoted. You said it yourself: Byleth took a while too and Byleth was pre-pandemic, which potentially could have mucked up production schedules...

True! King Boo could be interesting for sure. There’s potential for more content from that universe.

And Luigi’s Mansion 3 never had a spirit event.

A lot of games didn’t get spirit events. I wouldn’t fix an argument on that. Honestly, we could say “It doesn’t have a spirit event” for half of the characters we’ll be covering…

This is true as well… It’s also still doubling-down on a first party franchise already in the game. Can we move on to the originals?

Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven)

Gosh… I feel bad for the Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven in general. Like, a rhythm game only has a couple songs in Smash? That’s just unfortunate. It has the most spirits of any franchise without a fighter, but still.

Plus we have leaks suggesting it’s been considered before, with both a mostly-accurate Smash 4 text leak predicting them and a Smash 4 datamine having files for Rhythm Heaven playable content.

But… I am not expecting it to happen, unfortunately. During Steve’s presentation, Sakurai made a comment about abandoning character's due to them being unable to be done justice. I could easily see that being a rhythm rep, as that’s just… a hard thing to practically execute. It’d be nice though...

Isaac (Golden Sun)

Oh boy! Isaac speculation! Always a fun time. We covered this last time, but I guess this is a similar situation to Elma in a way: First we speculate about a new game and, as an extension to that, speculate about Smash Bros.

That’s fair, but Isaac has also specifically had Smash demand for a lot longer than Elma, including during the Ballot Era, which has still been used to decide DLC based on comments about Banjo. So, if Golden Sun is coming back, which trademarks indicate it will be, then why wouldn’t they decide to include Isaac?

I don’t know… Isaac could just be out-prioritized? Lots of characters will be both popular and topical.

You could say that about anyone.

We will be saying that about almost everyone…

Isaac’s got a lot of good stuff going for him. He’s got demand, he probably has a future of some sort, and his demand has been acknowledged before. It’s just a matter of if they actually, you know, choose him.

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Man, Nintendo mobile games have weird treatment in Smash. Fire Emblem Heroes got a couple of remixes, but no mobile game has any spirits whatsoever?

Yeah, but they’re mobile games. Sure, Nintendo makes money off of them, but are they really a core part of the Nintendo brand? A lot of Nintendo crossover games and spin-offs get similar treatment with a similar lack of content. They obviously just don’t care to represent that part of Nintendo fully.

Or it’s a gap that could be filled in! I mean, I’m not saying I approve of gacha mechanics, but they obviously make Nintendo money. Dragalia Lost could use an IP awareness boost and Nintendo knows how good Smash Bros is for that.

You know what else is good for brand awareness? An actual worldwide release.

Ouch.

But, yeah, sure, crossovers are good for boosting IP awareness… Hence why Dragalia Lost has had crossovers with Mega Man, Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, and is currently having a Persona 5 Strikers event.

But… you can do more? It’s not like having some in-game collabs prohibits having more collaborations out-of-game in the future.

It’s impossible to know for sure.

Are you… are you just the impossible to know person?

Let’s move on. A few broad categories remain in the Nintendo characters..

Concept: Pokemon Rep

Ugh, can we move on from Pokemon discussion?

Pokemon’s fairly evergreen though. I don’t think there’s a bad time to include a Pokemon in Smash Bros, even if we’re moving on from Sword/Shield at this point.

Yeah, but it’s overplayed. Sword and Shield got a spirit event already. They got their shout-out. Pokemon is big, but that doesn’t make it immortal and a guarantee.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee by any means, but… It still could happen. Pokemon will always be relevant. It’s an anniversary year and, heck, New Pokemon Snap is one of, like, 5 Nintendo games announced right now - and that’s counting the Japan-only Famicom Detective titles.

Yeah, but it’s not like Smash tends to celebrate Pokemon spin-offs anyway. I’d be surprised if Snap of all things were to break the trend.

I doubt we’d get a Snap pack or anything, but it’ll keep Pokemon in the popular discourse. It’s absurdly large. Pokemon has fans forever. If Sword/Shield controversy changes nothing, then nothing is going to change…

Speaking of anniversaries...

Concept: The Legend of Zelda Rep

Yeah, uh, similar situation here. Breath of the Wild 2 is one of the only announced Nintendo games, Age of Calamity got a spirit event, yet… a Zelda character is possible. Zelda has an anniversary this year and will be continually topical.

Though, unlike Pokemon, Zelda lacks a continued character presence.

Breath of the Wild 2 may be what breaks that argument though, as sharing a world is probably going to make some Zelda characters go from one-off to three-off in one console generation… which is a lot of Zelda, a series where most characters get one game or, occasionally, one game and also an appearance in Warriors years later.

True as well… Speaking of one-off franchises...

Concept: Fire Emblem Rep

OH BOY; THIS WOULD GO OVER WELL!

Yeah, uh, Fire Emblem will… probably have something else out before Smash DLC ends? Maybe? A new game would mean a new lord, or a new remake would mean a new-old lord. Fire Emblem is, uh, marketable to Smash fans. I highly doubt they would keep adding Fire Emblem characters if they didn’t sell well. It’s definitely less probable than Pokemon and Zelda having more content to pull from before 2021 is over, but it' still possible.

Yeah, though the producer of Fire Emblem Echoes indicated that the next remake he’d like to lead is FE6… Roy’s game.

True as well. Maybe what will stop Fire Emblem from getting another character is the most marketable pick already being in Smash Bros.

Also they could technically include a Heroes character! The Summoner even has some fresh new Smash-alt-able designs...

Oh, Fire Emblem and gacha. That'd end well...

Concept: Someone Nintendo We Don’t Know Even Know Exists Yet

This is also possible, honestly. This could overlap with a franchise we’ve already talked about - be it a new Pokemon, the lord of a new Fire Emblem, someone new from Breath of the Wild 2, someone new from an upcoming Kirby or Zelda game, or, heck, maybe a new Rhythm Heaven game will come with a new mascot character or protagonist that gets in. But, honestly, with Nintendo’s approach of announcing games a couple months or even a couple weeks before their games come out.

Yeah, uh, hard to speculate about stuff we don’t even know exists.

Isn’t that all of speculation?

Woah, deep man. You know what I mean. It’s fun to speculate about characters we know, even if it assumes the existence or specifics of games we vaguely know about… but regardless.

Shall we move on?

Let's! Next up, we’re talking about crossovers. These are all going to be third party characters who have had concept crossover games. To be clear, these are games developed by other companies for Nintendo, such as Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. We will discuss third party characters who have had Nintendo content in their games after this [editor's note: Whoops].

Okay! Have… that many likely characters had Nintendo crossovers?

Define “likely.”

Touche.

This won’t be a definitive list. This is a sampling. Additionally, a few of these franchises have a lot of different characters that could be chosen; we’ve just picked one to discuss the franchise in general.

Dr Eggman (Sonic, through Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games)

Okay, cool. Eggman has been getting a lot of attention after Sephiroth and he is from a franchise that has directly collaborated with Mario several times…. At the Olympics.

Hey, technically Mario and Sonic at the 2020 Olympic Games will be very relevant this year, with the Olympics actually happening in 2021.

Ouch. Sonic is going to be relevant this year in general though, with SEGA constantly teasing all their big Sonic projects in the works… even if thus far all we’ve gotten is a Netflix series and Sonic in Puyo Puyo Tetris 2.

Yeah… Problem is just… He may not be chosen.

Uh, yeah. Things are lining up potentially though! I’m unsure if the Olympics game matters in that case, but, you know, he’s an interesting character to consider.

Interesting. Let’s move on.

Ling Tong (Warriors, through Hyrule Warriors)

Oh, this is an interesting one. The Warriors franchise is constantly getting Nintendo crossovers. Honestly, I think it’d be fairly reasonable if someone mistook Warriors for a Nintendo IP. Age of Calamity has already become the best-selling Warriors game overall...

Yeah, but isn’t that an argument against a Warriors OC?

I don’t really think so? It’s proof Nintendo sees value in the IP.

Or it proves they see value in the mechanics and like to make Koei develop games for them…

This is… fair as well… I could see Nintendo choosing to showcase the original IP that they have greenlit so many spin-offs and crossovers of though? Plus it’s not like the Warriors OCs are just Warriors characters, but based on a strategy game series based on a set of histories which are, like, the basis for one of the important work of literatures in all of human history.

I thought it didn’t matter for Eggman. Collabs matter now?

Well. There’s differences between a concept crossover and a sports game spin-off?

Yeah. One includes the original character's and the other doesn’t.

Um. I mean. True…

Let’s move on.

Messiah (Shin Megami Tensei, through Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE)

Well, that name would definitely go over well.

Do you know a better name to refer to the Shin Megami Tensei protagonists in a group?

Nope, uh, that’s the one.

So, that’s what we’re going with.

Yeah, uh, Shin Megami Tensei is a franchise with a long Nintendo history that Nintendo frequently promotes, with SMTV being announced at the Nintendo Switch demonstration stream and being re-announced in the first Partner Presents, an announcement everyone, uh, definitely was happy to see! They also have released SMTIII, the only main mainline game not on Nintendo platforms, on the Switch in Japan and it’ll come out in English… eventually.

Only ATLUS would take months to release a port of an old game with slightly improved textures.

Hey, let’s be fair now! Also Level-5. Mum’s the word on the first Yo-kai Watch’s Switch port.

Ouch… Anyway, problem is SMT can easily be spirited away. There’s no shortage of opportunities to put in SMT content.

True as well. It’d be easy to give SMTV a spirit event and I honestly am fairly confident in one happening if we don’t get a character. ATLUS has just done too much with Nintendo for the current lack of anything Jack Frost to be not suspicious.

So, brand loyalty… Interesting, when TMS#FE is also a concept crossover, with only the broadest definition of "crossover." Let’s move on.

Shiren the Wanderer (Mystery Dungeon, through Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)

Oh boy. Yeah, uh, this makes Warriors IP look like The Legend of Zelda. This is a franchise that is so incredibly specific and niche that I imagine most people just assume that Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is the IP.

Well, hey, if he did someone make it, he’d be setting a new standard for “anime swordsman.”

You don’t think Shiren has a chance?

Not… really? Sure, he’s had games since the mid-90s, but he’s just… so niche. This isn’t like Warriors, where the franchise is most successful as a collaboration. This brand basically is one of collaborations, especially in English.

Why wouldn’t Nintendo want to promote a brand they have seen value in?

Because… Nintendo does want to sell this DLC, right? They do use Smash Bros slots for promotion as well, but they always have built-in fanbases.

Yeah, exactly! Why are we sorting it like this? Crossovers don’t mean anything.

We’re not sorting in order of likelihood.

Then why sort things at all?

There must be an order to things. Isn't this entire process a matter of pattern recognition?

I mean, to some extent...

Only to extent. Hm. Let's see if that opinion changes...

Anyway, time to go back on my break now.

ive lost track which colour are you? also we toad fans re way more pessimistic than that

 

[JOJONumber691]

Yes, because it doesn't have any official statements to back it up, you're treating it as reason for a hard, definite no rather than simply unlikely, and your reasoning based on that point is inconsistent.

Somehow these two:
View attachment 301743View attachment 301744
Are apparently more distinct than these two:

Based on the reasoning of... Byleth holding their sword differently? In the middle of a fast-paced fight where you're in the air half of the time, about half of everybody won't be able to discern such minute little details, especially when they both use the color blue for their hair and use swords. If the point is the silhouettes, Marth and Byleth goes against that because if you just looked at the outlines, you wouldn't be able to tell who is who at a glance. Even then, the Summoner's silhouette would be distinct from Robin's by virtue of A: Having their hood on most of the time, and B: Using a gun instead of swords and tomes. Besides, a white cloak and a black cloak would be a lot easier to distinguish than just "Well my guy holds his sword behind his head."

You didn't address my point about the models and voice acting, either. That is also a fan rule, because you are definitively saying that the way Heroes functions disqualifies the Summoner from being added when there have been no official statements on the matter. It's not something that has precedent, like Assist Trophies or post-launch Spirit Events. Large cast gachas have not been represented in Smash, nor has Sakurai ever said that they are disqualifies, so you cannot say for certain that they are disqualified or how they would be implemented.

If you want to convince anybody, you'll need a better response than just a snarky one-liner.

Byleth’s silhouettes are made and designed around how similar he and Marth are design-wise. Also, Byleth already plays similarly to Marth. They’re both Disjoint Zoners who focus on Combat from Mid-Range. It’s just that one has a Tipper, while the other uses Weapons. Also, again I have also said many times before that Summoner also has a budget issue. I don’t think they’ll go for the Character with a huge silhouette problem when said character also costs them a Million just for their gimmick alone.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Summoner also has a budget issue. I don’t think they’ll go for the Character with a huge silhouette problem when said character also costs them a Million just for their gimmick alone.

I don't know know anything about Fire Emblem Heroes so expected some contradiction but why risking a silhouette problem when the rest of the Fire Emblem cast break that and I mean even then the fact that Summoner has his hood on while Robin doesn't already have a distinct difference.

And also about the budget issue couldn't they just cover that up by having just 5 easy design character with the quality of the model be the same as an Assist Trophy and group Final Smashes and just used it over and over again? And I mean tell if I'm wrong but isn't Heroes that there are a certain capacity on how many unit you could bring into battle?

 

[JOJONumber691]

I don't know know anything about Fire Emblem Heroes so expected some contradiction but why risking a silhouette problem when the rest of the Fire Emblem cast break that and I mean even then the fact that Summoner has his hood on while Robin doesn't already have a distinct difference.

And also about the budget issue couldn't they just cover that up by having just 5 easy design character with the quality of the model be the same as an Assist Trophy and group Final Smashes and just used it over and over again? And I mean tell if I'm wrong but isn't Heroes that there are a certain capacity on how many unit you could bring into battle?

Yeah, but imagine up to 10 Other DIFFERENT Characters being Modeled PER KIRAN! I'm confident Sakurai would do that too in order to stay faithful to FEH's Gacha Mechanics. Like, even if Kiran's Normals didn't have summoning, his Smash Attacks, and all of his Specials, and his Final Smash would require Summoning in order to be faithful to Heroes. It just doesn't work. So, again, unless it's in Heroes' Art Style (which I doubt), it would be a massive budgeting nightmare implementing Kiran. Also, to debunk the sihloette thing:
Marth, Lucina, Roy, and Chrom: Clones of each other, also Roy has a Reverse Grip.
Ike: Big Sword held with One Arm, made to look powerful.
Robin: Tomes with a Jacket that makes Robin look more like a Tactician.
Corrin: Holds Chainsaw Sword behind them, also a Dragon.
Byleth: Different Weapons and Already Plays Similarly to Marth.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Yeah, but imagine up to 10 Other DIFFERENT Characters being Modeled PER KIRAN

Or they could just lay half of them off and have only 5, I mean Joker is a special character because he could use and hold 6 different Persona and yet he only held 1 and that is Arsene.

I mean they could avoid the budget issue by just applying the summons into half of his moveset and fill it in with custom png image of each character corresponding to the motion of the attack (just like normal mobile game gacha)

 

[JOJONumber691]

Or they could just lay half of them off and have only 5, I mean Joker is a special character because he could use and hold 6 different Persona and yet he only held 1 and that is Arsene.

I mean they could avoid the budget issue by just applying the summons into half of his moveset and fill it in with custom png image of each character corresponding to the motion of the attack (just like normal mobile game gacha)

Could work, but it's that on top of the silohette that prevents Summoner from happening.

 

[SharkLord]

Byleth’s silhouettes are made and designed around how similar he and Marth are design-wise.

Then why can't the Summoner? If Byleth managed to be made distinct enough, what stops Kiran? Why are they suddenly walled off?

Also, Byleth already plays similarly to Marth. They’re both Disjoint Zoners who focus on Combat from Mid-Range. It’s just that one has a Tipper, while the other uses Weapons.

What does that have to do with Kiran? They're not similar enough to be added? I thought the point of the DLC was fresh and distinct characters?

Also, again I have also said many times before that Summoner also has a budget issue. I don’t think they’ll go for the Character with a huge silhouette problem when said character also costs them a Million just for their gimmick alone.

No, they don't. You don't know exactly how they would be implemented. Sakurai has never said anything about how he would implement gacha mechanics, and we can't say for certain how he'd do it. There isn't one way to implement the Summoner. Even then, they clearly didn't care about the budget issues when they created 17 different models in the background of Terry's stage, nor did they care about revamping every stage in the game just to make Steve work.

Yeah, but imagine up to 10 Other DIFFERENT Characters being Modeled PER KIRAN! I'm confident Sakurai would do that too in order to stay faithful to FEH's Gacha Mechanics. Like, even if Kiran's Normals didn't have summoning, his Smash Attacks, and all of his Specials, and his Final Smash would require Summoning in order to be faithful to Heroes. It just doesn't work. So, again, unless it's in Heroes' Art Style (which I doubt), it would be a massive budgeting nightmare implementing Kiran.

So that's about seven extra models, not counting the Final Smash. Big deal, they made seventeen new models just for the sake of randomized background cameos in the KoF Stadium. As for the alts, a quick recolor for everyone should do the trick. Or not; the Pokemon Trainer only has two sets of alts for their Pokemon, based on the gender you chose. If that's the case, I can easily see them just not recoloring those summons.

Also, to debunk the sihloette thing:
Marth, Lucina, Roy, and Chrom: Clones of each other, also Roy has a Reverse Grip.
Ike: Big Sword held with One Arm, made to look powerful.
Robin: Tomes with a Jacket that makes Robin look more like a Tactician.
Corrin: Holds Chainsaw Sword behind them, also a Dragon.
Byleth: Different Weapons and Already Plays Similarly to Marth.

And the Summoner doesn't even use a sword. They use a gun, and their hood is always up, so you never see their face. If "big sword in one arm" is enough of a distinction, then using a different weapon type entirely would also be distinct enough.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Then why can't the Summoner? If Byleth managed to be made distinct enough, what stops Kiran? Why are they suddenly walled off?


What does that have to do with Kiran? They're not similar enough to be added? I thought the point of the DLC was fresh and distinct characters?


No, they don't. You don't know exactly how they would be implemented. Sakurai has never said anything about how he would implement gacha mechanics, and we can't say for certain how he'd do it. There isn't one way to implement the Summoner. Even then, they clearly didn't care about the budget issues when they created 17 different models in the background of Terry's stage, nor did they care about revamping every stage in the game just to make Steve work.


So that's about seven extra models, not counting the Final Smash. Big deal, they made seventeen new models just for the sake of randomized background cameos in the KoF Stadium. As for the alts, a quick recolor for everyone should do the trick. Or not; the Pokemon Trainer only has two sets of alts for their Pokemon, based on the gender you chose. If that's the case, I can easily see them just not recoloring those summons.


And the Summoner doesn't even use a sword. They use a gun, and their hood is always up, so you never see their face. If "big sword in one arm" is enough of a distinction, then using a different weapon type entirely would also be distinct enough.

Ah yes, with no Voice Acting or Gameplay Function. Also, Sakurai wouldn't recolor the Summons unless it's EXCLUSIVELY Heroes Exclusive Characters, which I doubt due to Heroes Core Mechanics. See why Summoner has so many issues? No Matter what Kiran is going to feel off, which is why I simply can't see Kiran getting in unless they're getting in to a Deluxe Edition of Ultimate getting released in the Future.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Sakurai wouldn't recolor the Summons unless it's EXCLUSIVELY Heroes Exclusive Characters

What's that supposed to mean you're saying every character have to originated from Heroes? Isn't that just you're own restriction?

 

[JOJONumber691]

What's that supposed to mean you're saying every character have to originated from Heroes? Isn't that just you're own restriction?

Heroes as a game works in a way that Straight Up prevents it. So, unless they're completely random, or it's just the Heroes Originals, I honestly doubt it.

 

[SharkLord]

Ah yes, with no Voice Acting or Gameplay Function.

The voice clips are easily reused. They've done it quite a bit with FE in Smash already, like with Chrom, Black Knight, and Tiki. The attacks would be coded in like normal, possibly repurposing a bit of code from Zelda's Phantom, which is already a summon character who would probably work similarly to the proposed summoning gimmick. At worst, it would take a minor delay for balancing purposes like Hero and their RNG frickery. Still, when the guy at the wheel is willing to redo every stage in the game to make a character's gimmick work properly, I don't think there's anything that could stop them.

Also, Sakurai wouldn't recolor the Summons unless it's EXCLUSIVELY Heroes Exclusive Characters, which I doubt due to Heroes Core Mechanics.

But why though? Why would the Heroes OCs be the only ones recolored?
Ah well, they don't need alts anyways. Rosalina's Lumas have randomized color palettes, the trainer's three Pokemon only have two different alts instead of the standard eight, and Zelda's summoned Phantoms aren't recolored either. Just treat them as a standard attack that happens to summon someone, and we won't need those alts.

See why Summoner has so many issues? No Matter what Kiran is going to feel off, which is why I simply can't see Kiran getting in unless they're getting in to a Deluxe Edition of Ultimate getting released in the Future.

And all those issues are something you tacked on and overexaggerated, then used for a hard, definitive no. Has Sakurai ever addressed these issues? Is there an interview where he emphasizes the distinct silhouettes? Did he ever say he couldn't cram multiple models into a fighter? Probably not.

And in the end, Nintendo's at the wheel. Their main goal is profitability, and if they think a Heroes rep in Smash would bring profit, they'd do it. And besides, a lot of people would say Hero and Steve's movesets wouldn't work before they were actually added, and yet here we are. The Summoner can work, and these issues aren't as bad as you make them out to be.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Heroes as a game works in a way that Straight Up prevents it. So, unless they're completely random, or it's just the Heroes Originals, I honestly doubt it.

What?? It's just a recolor not a battle mechanic. That's an extreme way to represent the gacha mechanic and it isn't even that accurate, Olimar isn't even that faithful to his game because he only could pluck 3 Pikmin instead of 100 but at least he pluck them from the surface or that Ryu, Ken and Terry could only do simple button combo rather than a loop-the-loop but at least they perform combos. You can just work with 5 units and it already represent his summoning/gacha ability, you don't really have to include the %.

 

[JOJONumber691]

The voice clips are easily reused. They've done it quite a bit with FE in Smash already, like with Chrom, Black Knight, and Tiki. The attacks would be coded in like normal, possibly repurposing a bit of code from Zelda's Phantom, which is already a summon character who would probably work similarly to the proposed summoning gimmick. At worst, it would take a minor delay for balancing purposes like Hero and their RNG frickery. Still, when the guy at the wheel is willing to redo every stage in the game to make a character's gimmick work properly, I don't think there's anything that could stop them.


But why though? Why would the Heroes OCs be the only ones recolored?
Ah well, they don't need alts anyways. Rosalina's Lumas have randomized color palettes, the trainer's three Pokemon only have two different alts instead of the standard eight, and Zelda's summoned Phantoms aren't recolored either. Just treat them as a standard attack that happens to summon someone, and we won't need those alts.


And all those issues are something you tacked on and overexaggerated, then used for a hard, definitive no. Has Sakurai ever addressed these issues? Is there an interview where he emphasizes the distinct silhouettes? Did he ever say he couldn't cram multiple models into a fighter? Probably not.

And in the end, Nintendo's at the wheel. Their main goal is profitability, and if they think a Heroes rep in Smash would bring profit, they'd do it. And besides, a lot of people would say Hero and Steve's movesets wouldn't work before they were actually added, and yet here we are. The Summoner can work, and these issues aren't as bad as you make them out to be.

I guess Summoner is inevitable, so just to avoid any Conflicts in the Future, I'm going to guarantee Summoner gets in no matter what, just to be proven wrong because I'm making a legitimate argument judging by every character and the Trends they show, but no. I guess Summoner is Inevitable now.

 

[Commander_Alph]

I guess Summoner is inevitable, so just to avoid any Conflicts in the Future, I'm going to guarantee Summoner gets in no matter what, just to be proven wrong because I'm making a legitimate argument judging by every character and the Trends they show, but no. I guess Summoner is Inevitable now.

Since when do we make him a lock???, We just said these obstacle that you put up won't affect his chances at all

 

[JOJONumber691]

Since when do we make him a lock???, We just said these obstacle that you put up won't affect his chances at all

And I'm saying that a silhouette poses an issue for Kiran. Only distinct Silhouettes from Robin I can think of are NAir and DAir.

 

[chocolatejr9]

And I'm saying that a silhouette poses an issue for Kiran. Only distinct Silhouettes from Robin I can think of are NAir and DAir.

BUT WHY WOULD A SILHOUETTE DECONFIRM A CHARACTER!?!?

 

[Commander_Alph]

And I'm saying that a silhouette poses an issue for Kiran. Only distinct Silhouettes from Robin I can think of are NAir and DAir.

Are you talking render poses or the move animation? Because I can tell you that you won't see someone use a gun like a dagger.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This silhouette stuff is getting off topic.

But to throw in my own two cents rn, I doubt silhouettes really matter that much in a game where plenty of characters have similar animations to each other. I would excuse a casual fan mistaking some characters in this game because to be brutally honest the silhouettes are similar enough. I am just going to say that a similar silhouette is not a death knell by any means.

That being said I have my own reasons for thinking Summoner is unlikely, but that's beyond the point.

TLDR: This sillhouette stuff is weird and off topic, knock it off.

 

[JOJONumber691]

This silhouette stuff is getting off topic.

But to throw in my own two cents rn, I doubt silhouettes really matter that much in a game where plenty of characters have similar animations to each other. I would excuse a casual fan mistaking some characters in this game because to be brutally honest the silhouettes are similar enough. I am just going to say that a similar silhouette is not a death knell by any means.

That being said I have my own reasons for thinking Summoner is unlikely, but that's beyond the point.

TLDR: This sillhouette stuff is weird and off topic, knock it off.

Yeah. let's just agree to disagree and see what happens from there, deal?

 

[Dukefire]

Thinking too deep can lead to madness as the mind tries to process. The only way we can tell another character you selected (popular or not) is coming or not by Sakurai's reveal. Leaks and speculation can help time pass, but can't predict characters unlike FP1 due to information sealed away with caution.

The way I can see the next challenger reveal, either late February or early March since Sephiroth's reveal on December last year at the VGA. Also, Pokemon Day is present and another Indie Direct may appear.

I expect those two first before Challenger 9's reveal. Though, who would be good to start the new year on Spring?