I've previously written my full thoughts and predictions
here, which will go into much more detail overall than I am about to here.
Condensed, but still lengthy version:
I believe that our next few characters will have one thing in common with the previous three: basically having nothing in common with the previous three. The Fighter's Pass has been about diversity in many ways this time, even if not immediately obvious. This includes owning company, except Nintendo and including Sora, so don't expect me to discuss Master Chief. I am including Assist Trophies, but Rex is the only non-base game Mii Costume I am including and I am not including most post-launch Spirits.
Challenger Pack 9 - This one is likely to be revealed relatively soon, actually! With no big event tied to it, and how the hype train tends to slow down after the spectacular opening and middle, I'm expecting something of a small drop in hype level. These guys might be a bit more regional, too. Characters along the lines of SEGA's Arle, Sakura and relatively Kiryu, Capcom's Amaterasu or Morrigan, or from new companies Falcom's Adol Christin. I don't expect a first party next, mostly because DLC trends towards third parties but I wouldn't rule one out here.
Challenger Pack 10 - Since the plan seems to have been always intended to be spread out to 2021, that means it's likely that this fellow is our E3 2021 character. Smash reveals... Melee itself,
, Brawl itself,
Smash 4 itself, Smash 4 being Smash 3DS and Smash Wii U,
everyone is here,
... at E3 tend to be pretty well received, first or third party, especially by fandoms overall. 2020 was the only year not to have had an E3 reveal as there was no E3 and the June reveal Min Min was considered rather weak. It is believed, however, that Steve was intended as the E3 2020 reveal and COVID fudged everything up. As a result I expect this character to be the token big guy, but on an arguably smaller, different scale than Steveroth. Characters like Dr. Eggman, Monster Hunter, Chun-Li, Agumon, or basically any western third party.
Challenger Pack 11 - Nintendo usually wraps things up with a first party, with Corrin being the last newcomer to be developed for Smash 4 (even if his reveal predates Bayonetta's) and Byleth closing the first Volume. Heck, even Piranha Plant might count as the final reveal before Ultimate's release. So I expect this trend to continue as it fits with the descending hype pattern... mostly. There's standouts like Rex and Waluigi, and not as big standouts but still standouts like Bandana Waddle Dee or Dixie Kong, who could rival smaller third parties (and Waluigi goes toe to toe with the best of the best).
TLDR version:
- Challenger Pack 9 will be a small third party. Revealed Feb-April, launches April-June.
- Challenger Pack 10 will be a big third party. Revealed around June, launches in August.
- Challenger Pack 11 will be a first party. Revealed around October-November, launches in November-December.
- Challenger Pack 11 is the final main new content update for Smash Ultimate, though Mii Costumes and Spirit events continue onwards a bit longer.
Gun to my head (if I have to say
who will be our next three) predictions:
Arle &
Carbuncle,
Somebody from TF2 (eyeing
Scout, Pyro, Demoman, Heavy and Spy), and
Waluigi. I think Crash and Hayabusa among others are probably red herrings. We're traditionally very bad at getting them right, and a lot of the characters that have been happening are characters who feel like joke picks or awesome but impossible back during their time (in fact I'd say the whole set of Ultimate DLC except Hero and maybe Terry, and to the cynic Byleth. You could even make the argument for all the Ultimate newcomers, except Inkling/Isabelle/Incineroar).
Arle: A lot of things are lining up in her favor but it's genuinely a case of wait and see. Japan's already walked away with somebody who you could say is big there, being Sephiroth, but I don't think another would hurt. SEGA's promoting the series hard in the west, and anniversaries don't factor into reveal timings but I feel like the best case can be made for this year. Wouldn't be surprised.
TF2 rep: I'll explain more during their day why I think they're a genuine sleeper pick not to be underestimated, but I'll set up some foreshadowing. The big issue is wondering if Nintendo would go for it; I don't think Valve's neglect, Gordon Freeman or TF2's content (which is a few swears and gibs, come on) are nearly as big of problems, even if not something to sweep under the rug entirely. The former two are countered by Banjo, the latter by Joker and Bayonetta. The big thing that has me keeping an eye on them is the amazing level of fan popularity TF2 has in non-bubble Smash circles (see Steve and Sephiroth), with Heavy being the most wanted fan request (not of the mercs, not of Valve, not of third parties, but period) in the biggest sample size groups I can find, and in the most active one 6 of the classes are all ranked very high. There's more, but I don't want to spoil it here and now.
Waluigi: A big, climactic finish to SSBU for the casual fans, and a soggy fart to the hardcore ones. Waluigi's a case of big upsides at a few minor downsides and one almost single-handedly crushing one. But we've often had characters who felt like never evers actually pull it off beyond all reason, so I don't think Nintendo really cares about Waluigi's Assist Trophy.
And no, this isn't a wishlist disguised as a prediction list. That would be Arle/Crash/Lloyd out of everybody who I think is still realistic... ish. Pure pie in the sky, Arle/Crash/Henry.
