Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[h2ogre]

PATTERNS I HAVE NOTICED IN THE FIGHTER PASSES

Since last month i have been painstakingly trying to find a pattern in both of the fighter passes that makes sense. Eventually i found some interesting stuff. (Just to be clear none of this stuff is for certain and it is just me speculating based on the pattern I have seen thus far in both passes. I could be completely wrong). I first went and researched every single dlc pass character in ultimate to see if i could find anything at all that stood out. The obvious pattern thus far is that we have one western rep for each pass while the rest have been japanese. I think that is a rule i can stick to for right now. So, that would mean steve was the last western rep. Aside from this i did research on the release date of every characters original game that they came from and noticed that all of them (except for 4) had a release date between 2016 and 2018. Which according to sakurai was the same time he started actually working on ultimate. So he wouldve picked characters from games that came out around that time. From what i have seen sakurai tends to pick characters this way UNLESS, the character was requested by fans. In which case sakurai wil go very far into the past to retrieve that character if he needs to. This is the case for the 4 characters i mentioned before (Banjo, Byleth, Steve, Sephiroth.) So just to be clear so far on the rules for each pass i have come up with: 1 western request, 1 japan request, the rest are japan characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018.

now another more simple rule i have noticed SO FAR, is that you dont get the same color background for two characters on the same fighters pass. that is why in my fighter pass 2 prediction post i said either Lloyd, Adol, or Dante would be put into one slot, because they would all share the same background color, red.

So, as i look at fighter pass 2 I look to see what patterns have already been filled and which have not. we have already gotten both our japan and western request characters, being sephiroth and steve. Which means that the rest would need to be japanese characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018. However, since the list of characters is so small already, sakurai might end up choosing a requested character inadvertently because a few characters have been requested and also have games in that time frame. So, I PAINSTAKINGLY scowered a list of everysingle game that came out during that time to see if there were any japanese characters that could fit the bill and here is what i found.

Lloyd
Adol
Dante
Ragna
Nanashi
Chun Li
Kat
2B

these are all based on the fact that they are characters from companies that have not been included in fighter pass 2. Of course like i explained before, if a character like lloyd got in then Dante, Ragna, and Adol would already be out since they all share the same background color. And if Dante got in that would mean no Chun Li since that would be two companies in the same pass. as for 2b sakurai says she is owned by platinum and not square when you REALLY BOIL IT DOWN. All of these characters are possibilities, but we all know there can only be three.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

PATTERNS I HAVE NOTICED IN THE FIGHTER PASSES

Since last month i have been painstakingly trying to find a pattern in both of the fighter passes that makes sense. Eventually i found some interesting stuff. (Just to be clear none of this stuff is for certain and it is just me speculating based on the pattern I have seen thus far in both passes. I could be completely wrong). I first went and researched every single dlc pass character in ultimate to see if i could find anything at all that stood out. The obvious pattern thus far is that we have one western rep for each pass while the rest have been japanese. I think that is a rule i can stick to for right now. So, that would mean steve was the last western rep. Aside from this i did research on the release date of every characters original game that they came from and noticed that all of them (except for 4) had a release date between 2016 and 2018. Which according to sakurai was the same time he started actually working on ultimate. So he wouldve picked characters from games that came out around that time. From what i have seen sakurai tends to pick characters this way UNLESS, the character was requested by fans. In which case sakurai wil go very far into the past to retrieve that character if he needs to. This is the case for the 4 characters i mentioned before (Banjo, Byleth, Steve, Sephiroth.) So just to be clear so far on the rules for each pass i have come up with: 1 western request, 1 japan request, the rest are japan characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018.

now another more simple rule i have noticed SO FAR, is that you dont get the same color background for two characters on the same fighters pass. that is why in my fighter pass 2 prediction post i said either Lloyd, Adol, or Dante would be put into one slot, because they would all share the same background color, red.

So, as i look at fighter pass 2 I look to see what patterns have already been filled and which have not. we have already gotten both our japan and western request characters, being sephiroth and steve. Which means that the rest would need to be japanese characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018. However, since the list of characters is so small already, sakurai might end up choosing a requested character inadvertently because a few characters have been requested and also have games in that time frame. So, I PAINSTAKINGLY scowered a list of everysingle game that came out during that time to see if there were any japanese characters that could fit the bill and here is what i found.

Lloyd
Adol
Dante
Ragna
Nanashi
Chun Li
Kat
2B

these are all based on the fact that they are characters from companies that have not been included in fighter pass 2. Of course like i explained before, if a character like lloyd got in then Dante, Ragna, and Adol would already be out since they all share the same background color. And if Dante got in that would mean no Chun Li since that would be two companies in the same pass. as for 2b sakurai says she is owned by platinum and not square when you REALLY BOIL IT DOWN. All of these characters are possibilities, but we all know there can only be three.

Sir, this is Rate Their Chances.

If you want to talk about weird patterns like this, you are better off in the general DLC Newcomer thread.

 

[chocolatejr9]

PATTERNS I HAVE NOTICED IN THE FIGHTER PASSES

Since last month i have been painstakingly trying to find a pattern in both of the fighter passes that makes sense. Eventually i found some interesting stuff. (Just to be clear none of this stuff is for certain and it is just me speculating based on the pattern I have seen thus far in both passes. I could be completely wrong). I first went and researched every single dlc pass character in ultimate to see if i could find anything at all that stood out. The obvious pattern thus far is that we have one western rep for each pass while the rest have been japanese. I think that is a rule i can stick to for right now. So, that would mean steve was the last western rep. Aside from this i did research on the release date of every characters original game that they came from and noticed that all of them (except for 4) had a release date between 2016 and 2018. Which according to sakurai was the same time he started actually working on ultimate. So he wouldve picked characters from games that came out around that time. From what i have seen sakurai tends to pick characters this way UNLESS, the character was requested by fans. In which case sakurai wil go very far into the past to retrieve that character if he needs to. This is the case for the 4 characters i mentioned before (Banjo, Byleth, Steve, Sephiroth.) So just to be clear so far on the rules for each pass i have come up with: 1 western request, 1 japan request, the rest are japan characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018.

now another more simple rule i have noticed SO FAR, is that you dont get the same color background for two characters on the same fighters pass. that is why in my fighter pass 2 prediction post i said either Lloyd, Adol, or Dante would be put into one slot, because they would all share the same background color, red.

So, as i look at fighter pass 2 I look to see what patterns have already been filled and which have not. we have already gotten both our japan and western request characters, being sephiroth and steve. Which means that the rest would need to be japanese characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018. However, since the list of characters is so small already, sakurai might end up choosing a requested character inadvertently because a few characters have been requested and also have games in that time frame. So, I PAINSTAKINGLY scowered a list of everysingle game that came out during that time to see if there were any japanese characters that could fit the bill and here is what i found.

Lloyd
Adol
Dante
Ragna
Nanashi
Chun Li
Kat
2B

these are all based on the fact that they are characters from companies that have not been included in fighter pass 2. Of course like i explained before, if a character like lloyd got in then Dante, Ragna, and Adol would already be out since they all share the same background color. And if Dante got in that would mean no Chun Li since that would be two companies in the same pass. as for 2b sakurai says she is owned by platinum and not square when you REALLY BOIL IT DOWN. All of these characters are possibilities, but we all know there can only be three.

I'm glad you think that, but... this is the Rate Their Chances thread. We don't really talk about stuff like this.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Didn't expect Color Theory to come up here of all places

Spoiler: Calcs

Sora
14.44% Chance - 70.00% Want
Sora is now the third most wanted third party character.
The winner of predictions was Blankiturayman with a precise 14.00%

Professor Layton
21.06% Chance - 66.33% Want
The winner of predictions was TCT~Phantom with 20.20%

Waluigi
10.52% Chance - 52.46% Want
The winner of predictions was Louie G. with a near-exact 10.50% Congratulations! You win 10 extra noms.

Isaac
13.18% Chance - 66.67% Want
The winner of predictions was TCT~Phantom with 13.13%. You also get 10 extra noms!

Master Chief
14.59% Chance - 65.32% Want
The winner of predictions was Louie G. with 10.25%

Kratos
1.71% Chance - 52.44% Want
The winner of predictions was Jomosensual with 2.42%

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 15
BowserKing 5
Commander_Alph 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 20
Jomosensual 5
Louie G. 30
Lyncario 25
Mr. MR 70
NintenRob 10
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
TCT~Phantom 15
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 64
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

PATTERNS I HAVE NOTICED IN THE FIGHTER PASSES

Since last month i have been painstakingly trying to find a pattern in both of the fighter passes that makes sense. Eventually i found some interesting stuff. (Just to be clear none of this stuff is for certain and it is just me speculating based on the pattern I have seen thus far in both passes. I could be completely wrong). I first went and researched every single dlc pass character in ultimate to see if i could find anything at all that stood out. The obvious pattern thus far is that we have one western rep for each pass while the rest have been japanese. I think that is a rule i can stick to for right now. So, that would mean steve was the last western rep. Aside from this i did research on the release date of every characters original game that they came from and noticed that all of them (except for 4) had a release date between 2016 and 2018. Which according to sakurai was the same time he started actually working on ultimate. So he wouldve picked characters from games that came out around that time. From what i have seen sakurai tends to pick characters this way UNLESS, the character was requested by fans. In which case sakurai wil go very far into the past to retrieve that character if he needs to. This is the case for the 4 characters i mentioned before (Banjo, Byleth, Steve, Sephiroth.) So just to be clear so far on the rules for each pass i have come up with: 1 western request, 1 japan request, the rest are japan characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018.

now another more simple rule i have noticed SO FAR, is that you dont get the same color background for two characters on the same fighters pass. that is why in my fighter pass 2 prediction post i said either Lloyd, Adol, or Dante would be put into one slot, because they would all share the same background color, red.

So, as i look at fighter pass 2 I look to see what patterns have already been filled and which have not. we have already gotten both our japan and western request characters, being sephiroth and steve. Which means that the rest would need to be japanese characters whose games came out between 2016 and 2018. However, since the list of characters is so small already, sakurai might end up choosing a requested character inadvertently because a few characters have been requested and also have games in that time frame. So, I PAINSTAKINGLY scowered a list of everysingle game that came out during that time to see if there were any japanese characters that could fit the bill and here is what i found.

Lloyd
Adol
Dante
Ragna
Nanashi
Chun Li
Kat
2B

these are all based on the fact that they are characters from companies that have not been included in fighter pass 2. Of course like i explained before, if a character like lloyd got in then Dante, Ragna, and Adol would already be out since they all share the same background color. And if Dante got in that would mean no Chun Li since that would be two companies in the same pass. as for 2b sakurai says she is owned by platinum and not square when you REALLY BOIL IT DOWN. All of these characters are possibilities, but we all know there can only be three.

I mean, this really is not what the thread is looking at tbh. If you want to discuss this, I would suggest the Newcomer Speculation Thread. Today we are mainly discussing the two concepts in the title today.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5
Prediction 5% for whatever

 

[Dan Quixote]

More concept rating days please! These are fun. (I say having nominated Tetra the past week straight)

Y'all remember the Neo Geo?

CHANCE - 10%
Hoo boy a tough rate here. We've had our fair share of companies double dipping in Smash this cycle, especially if you count base game as a dip. Considering how absolutely ecstatic SNK seemed to be to get their wolf boy in Smash, they'd totally be lining up for another chance right? Well, maybe, it's not impossible. But Terry feels a lot like Pac-Man to me. SNK just threw all they had behind Terry, maybe because they knew he'd be their only chance? That's most prevalent in the music selection, where there's even Metal Slug stuff. Other have made this same point earlier in this thread, but I wanna specify that this seems like SNK's decision. I think FP2 was already decided by Terry? Or at least close to it. So yeah, I believe that SNK already knew in advance that CP4 would be their only slot, and that's why they tossed in every franchise they had.

WANT - 25%
Feels mean to give such a simple reason for my low rate here, but I just like seeing companies and franchises get added that weren't represented before. New stuff is just more exciting! Especially with all the stuff that came with Terry, it'd feel like reusing some content I'm sure. That's not to say another SNK fighter would be a bad thing, though. They have a lot of the coolest and most stylish franchises in gaming history, characters who'd shine in Smash. Kyo is probably the frontrunner, but Athena, Ryo, Haohmaru, Nakoruru, even Metal Slug characters are all iconic in their own way and would fight in extremely cool ways in Smash. I still want Mai... But yeah, SNK is just not a priority to me personally cuz there's companies out there that have nothing yet. I'd give similar ratings for Square Enix and Sega.

something something Poké Floats

CHANCE - 50%
Y'all are peeeeessimistic. We got hella stages as DLC last game that were separate from fighters, and those were a shock too! I know most of those were returning stages, and there's only like 10 stages in series history that aren't in SSBU, but it's not impossible. Honestly I was worried we'd get no standalone DLC stages 'til Small Battlefield came along. That Super Mario Maker stage last game shows me they're more than willing to make a whole new stage just to advertise something new that wouldn't fit with a new fighter. I would not be surprised to see the same treatment for, say, BotW 2 since BotW Link is already in the game. There's two things that lower this score for me. One, they can advertise new games much more often with Spirit Board events. Two, and slightly more damning, is that it's been over two years without a real standalone stage. Just Small Battlefield... It kind of weakens the confidence here, sadly.

WANT - 100%
Heck yeah baby, that would be hype! I LOVE stages, especially the new ones that really try to represent the games they're from. We have Ω forms and Battlefield forms now if I want a normal match with different music and aesthetics, so I care less about stages with annoying layouts. But hey, there's a chance we'll get a stage with a super playable and fun layout like KOF Stadium! I'd love, love, love to see lots of deserving games get represented in Smash. Fire Emblem probably deserves stages that aren't so generic. Sonic totally deserves something new, too. And smaller franchises can get love too, like even indies! Plus, this is something that surpasses my want for new stuff, I'd even be hype for a new Mario stage. I'm sure they'd come up with something unique and fun.

Nominations: Tetra x20

Predictions: Third Fighters Pass 20%

 

[fogbadge]

(I say having nominated Tetra the past week straight)

some of us having been nominating the one character for much longer

 

[TCT~Phantom]

some of us having been nominating the one character for much longer

Rude. Don’t do this.

 

[Commander_Alph]

Rude. Don’t do this.

What's wrong about that?

 

[fogbadge]

Rude. Don’t do this.

it was?

What's wrong about that?

im fairly certain tct doesnt like me

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Rude. Don’t do this.

Tbh I think it was meant to be reassuring instead of being snarky like "Hey, welcome to the club pal". I know I often misread fogbadge's posts as more dickish but this honestly seemed friendly if worded weirdly

 

[fogbadge]

Tbh I think it was meant to be reassuring instead of being snarky like "Hey, welcome to the club pal". I know I often misread fogbadge's posts as more dickish but this honestly seemed friendly if worded weirdly

probably should have said “I know how you feel”

 

[Dan Quixote]

Oop I caused problems. Sorry heh, what i meant by my comment there was that I was saying that we should have more days where we rate concepts instead of characters because I found this day really fun to write for. Then I joked that I'd been nominating Tetra, a character and NOT a concept, for a while now. Apologies for the confusion!

 

[fogbadge]

Oop I caused problems. Sorry heh, what i meant by my comment there was that I was saying that we should have more days where we rate concepts instead of characters because I found this day really fun to write for. Then I joked that I'd been nominating Tetra, a character and NOT a concept, for a while now. Apologies for the confusion!

nah it’s my own fault for not thinking through how it might sound

 

[Ridrool64]

Puwuur Geezer!

Chance: 5%. I am also of the belief that Terry came with so much it's hard not to see him as the end-all be-all of SNK reps. Let's compare, say, Joker, Hero and Banjo's content to that of Terry's for a good measure. All three of them only come with in-game content in the pack from their series alone. Anything not from their series is outside of their Challenger Pack, the Mii Costumes. Meanwhile Terry came with KoF, Fatal Fury, Samurai Shodown, Art of Fighting and so much more. Even Metal Slug walked away with a few songs. It really feels like Terry represents all of SNK, rather than the limited scope being from "Fatal Fury" alone would imply.

Want: Abstain, don't really have a take on this. Some of them seem like they'd be pretty cool, though, and considering how awesome Terry is I have full trust in Sakurai to make another SNK rep really good.

And yet ROB remains homeless.

Chance: 20%. I feel like if they were going to do this, they would have by now. Remember that the pandemic is most likely limiting what the dev team can do... plus, the time and assets going into making stages could be used in refining the Challenger Pack content. Thus, the best chance would be for ports of either Smash 64 or Smash Wii U stages, because Melee, Brawl and 3DS would have to be remastered. Even then, I still don't know if it's worth it or not from the perspective of Nintendo.

Want: 50%. I mean on one hand, sure, I like new stages. But I feel like if we need to fix non-fighter content issues with Ultimate, stuff like the online or the buffer are more important. And if I want non Challenger Pack stuff that isn't Mii Costumes, I'd take more music first. Stuff like Pikmin and Wario have embarassing music selections, and even the "overrepped" series when it comes to music have loads of good candidates that are just outright missing. But hey, a new stage is a new stage. Can't complain.

TF2 rep x max. It's hard to tell whether most people think Volume 3 could genuinely happen or not, and if it's super likely or super duper unlikely. But I feel like the less expectant will win out. 15.35%.

 

[NintenZ]

Another SNK character

Chance: 1%

I think Terry basically seals the deal for this, every corner of SNK is covered as is from Samurai Showdown to Metal Slug, and the only character I could see getting in from the company (Nakoruru) is a Mii Costume and a Spirit, which tells me they have no intention of adding anyone else. I think Terry represents SNK more than well enough in their eyes.

Want: 90%

I would not be opposed to the idea at all though, whether it be Nakoruru who is basically SNK's second mascot along with Terry, Iori who's a prolific anti-hero in the series, Geese who's an iconic villain in his own right, Marco who'd give more representation towards Metal Slug, Fio because... drools.... or Mai who got cheated out entirely, I'd be up for anyone. At the same time I think SNK as a whole is represented really well, but they have so many cool character choices that I'd still want someone!

A stage without a fighter

Chance: 50%

It depends on a couple factors. We know the team wants to focus on the fighters at hand and those might take priority, at the same time there's a lot of stages absent from previous games a lot of fans have been clamoring for (PAC-MAZE anyone?) that they might want to add. Hell there's even some weird stage exclusions in the base game (No new Pokemon stage or Ken's stage is pretty weird don't you say?) so having they might add those just like they did for Pirate Ship in Smash 4. It's circumstantial but it could happen!

Want: 100%

I'm not at all opposed to the idea of more stages, so many interesting stages you could still bring back, and I think there's a lot of room for more new stages based on the fighters currently in, I really hope they capitalize on this idea because there's a lot of potential they're sleeping on. Also I think the lack of Wooly World as a stage is pretty strange in it of itself, we have Craft Yoshi so I don't see why it can't come back, so by all means, add it back!

Nominations:
A Xenoblade character (x10)
Kaede Akamatsu (x10)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Today we just got one thing in the docket: Concept: Third Fighters Pass. Rate it, I already made my write up so I will post it soon. Since ya can’t really predict tomorrow exactly, double noms today.

Tomorrow, we are gonna be doing or remaining FP2 predictions. Post the characters you expect and a brief reason why. Will explain this more tomorrow, but yeah. No predictions.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Hold on, I need to use that rule thing.

Abstain on yesterday. I don't have any opinions.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Chance: 0% Sakurai's gone on record saying this is all we're getting for a while multiple times, he's spoken about how at some point DLC is less profitable than a new game, likely referrin to the dedicated fanbase slowly shrinking due to lack of interest in buying more DLC and most recently, he's stated that he'll stop posting dev pictures soon, implying development is slowing down a lot, especially as they work on multiple characters at a time and there's only 3 left. Ultimate's also gonna be 3 years old when this is all said and done, Nintendo doesn't often support DLC for very long and we've had multiple games for the Switch that could also keep getting more DLC, but they just stop. I don't think Smash is much different when more successful Switch games also stop in that regard

Want: Abstain, not enough to form an opinion on such as how many characters over how long

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10

 

[fogbadge]

hmm

chance: im gonna say 20% cause my instinct is that this is it. what with the smaller dev team and the harder working conditions i feel like they may wanna wrap this up. sure you could argue that the sheer success of the other two would make them want to do another but im not sure on the logic of that one. sure it makes sense but at a certain point they gotta stop regardless of how well theyre doing. granted theres nothing to actually suggest that theyd stop here but im not convinced theres anything to really suggest theyre gonna carry on. like i said its just a gut feeling.

want: 50% naturally itll depend on who it is. dlc been a real mixed bag for me with only 3 out of the 8 we got so far ones i was actually for. but i suppose theres every chance itll be full of characters i like so ill give half and half. so im perfectly open to the idea im just painfully aware of how bad my luck is. also part of me kinda wants to see sakurai work on a new game. completely new i mean.

double noms you say? qbby x20

 

[Bobthealligator]

So this is an interesting one.
Putting aside issues regarding Sakurai 'needing a break'. I don't think that matters as if Nintendo wants another pass, Sakurai will make another pass.
But the longer development time seems to indicate that development on the pass is winding down, this is probably an indicator that this is the last pass. All in all, I think the one thing that will answer the question one way or the other: sales figures. The second pass has probably sold less than the first due to the law of diminishing returns, it's a matter of how steep the downward trend is. I imagine we'll find out one way or another when 2021's financial year begins, as I imagine if there's another pass it will be announced at the financial briefing.
Odds: 40%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Smash DLC Part 3

65% Chance

Let me address the elephant in the room. Sakurai’s comments that there are five characters after min min and how it would be the end. To that, I simply raise his response to Mewtwo and there being no planned DLC in Sm4sh.

Now in hindsight, we can assume this is not true, we have evidence that Bayo was started in April, right when the ballot originated. Combined with the fact Lucas was developed enough to be shown and we know Roy and Ryu were being made based off of the coding leaks, we can say that either plans changed rapidly or this is not true. That being said, it shows that Sakurai can play fast and loose with his wording for future plans. I think that this is the same kind of situation right now. He can turn around and say that Nintendo greenlit another pass.

Now, why would there be another pass? Well, Smash sells. Smash sells well. Based on Nintendo's financial reports, we know that Smash DLC, primarily FP2, was one of their biggest sources of revenue last year. Nintendo makes a ton of money from their digital sales, and they consider Smash a big part of that. If you did some math and assumed that only 10% of the audience for Smash Ultimate bought FP2, that is still raking in ~60 million dollars. That is not including people who purchased only one DLC character and that is a low estimate. The point is, Smash sells well and prints money. As seen by how big of an explosion across the internet Steve and Sephiroth were, we can say that Smash also is still in the public eye. I think Nintendo at least would consider the profits of a FP3 before tabling the idea.

I would also say that DLC has basically become the norm for, well, every other successful fighting game out there. Really, DLC is pushed until the inevitable sequel comes out, which as I explained below I doubt is happening for Smash. Look at Street Fighter V, we got tons of DLC and it winded down now (which we can tell is partially due to SF6 being in development). Dragon Ball Fighterz just finished its third season and based on one itty bitty thing in the datamine, I think a fourth season is coming too. DLC is a big seller for fighting games, and Smash is no different as I said above. In fact, Smash arguably has even bigger reach given how well it sold. DLC for a game this big could be profitable so long as the DLC sells. Given how well the DLC for this game has sold, I am confident in that regard.

The main counter points are that development might be shifting towards an Ultimate 2, similar to what happened in Sm4sh or that Sakurai might be exhausted. I do not see either as strong arguments to be brutally honest. The Switch is still selling extremely well. There still are lots of big games in the pipeline. The Wii U was gasping for air when Sm4sh came out and was flatlining while the DLC came out. Here Nintendo has a much bigger game with a much bigger install base. As for Sakurai himself being exhausted, all I can say is it is clear he loves this game a lot and considers it his baby. He clearly enjoys what he is doing so I would not be surprised if his break from FP2 is just new smash DLC.

Really, It is just a question of taking Sakurai’s wording at face value. Given his track record with this stuff, I am skeptical. It could easily be that the plans were ironed out after the Min Min interview, given that she came out so soon. If we do not hear about a FP3 before FP11 comes out, I doubt it is gonna happen. That being said, I still am pretty confident. It just makes too much sense money wise and given the precedent of the Mewtwo comments, I am gonna say that more DLC, whether a Third Pass or post pass bonuses, is more likely than not.

100% Want

I mean, it is more content. Why wouldn't I want more content? Smash Ultimate is the best Smash game and is one of my favorite games of all time. I have a ton of fun with it messing around with friends. Everything is so well done from the presentation to most of the movesets. Are there things I do not like? Yeah. Byleth is the worst newcomer in this game by a good margin in my opinion, some veterans could have gotten more tweaks, and there are balance gripes I have. But overall this game is great, and I would love to see more content. Even if the content is weak to me overall and it is boring stuff, it still would likely have at least one thing I want.

Haggar x 10
Neku x 10

 

[Perkilator]

Vol. 3
Chance: Abstain
Honestly, it's hard to say. Sakurai DID state that Vol. 2 would be it, but with the success of Vol. 2 so far, maybe Nintendo's or Sakurai's gonna want one? It's not like Sakurai doesn't have fun with his job.

Want: 50%
I'm conflicted. On one hand, it'd be nice to see more fighters get their chance one last time. On the other hand...Sakurai's been working on the series for about a decade. Whatever the case, I want Sakurai to get some well-deserved rest when he's finally done with Smash.

Noms:
Crazy Dave ×10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Fighter Pass 3

Chance: 35%

There are a lot of good arguments on both sides. On one hand, Sakurai said that there were currently no plans for any DLC beyond FP2 and I’ve noticed that ever since this fighters pass started, some of his Famitsu articles have been quite sentimental. And the reality is that at the end of this year, Smash Ultimate will have been supported by DLC for 3 years. Not many games can say that.

But at the same time there is enough evidence to point toward a possible third pass. In this article for Smash 4, Sakurai stated that there were no plans for anything beyond Mewtwo. Then not even a half year later they announced Lucas. So there is precedent for him to change his mind fast. Plus there will be nearly two years in between the end of the last pass and the end of this pass, so there is plenty of time for Nintendo and Sakurai to think about future DLC. So even if Sakurai said last year that there are currently no further plans for DLC, that could change. I’m not saying that it definitely will, but it’s a possibility.

Another factor to take into consideration is the Switch’s lifespan. So far there has been one Smash game for every console generation. I believe that Nintendo said that they wanted to support the Switch for up to 7 years, maybe longer. We are 4 years out from the launch of the Switch, and so far the Switch has been selling wonderfully. So it would make sense for Nintendo to continue supporting this game when the console it's on still has life in it and the game itself has sold very, very well.

But the biggest thing I want to bring up is how this fighters pass has been selling well. Steve definitely would have sold extremely well because it’s Minecraft, the best selling game of all time and has worldwide popularity. Not only that, but this figure came out before Sephiroth, who also made a big splash. And keep in mind, we are only halfway through the fighters pass so while a large amount of the people who were going to get the pass now have it, it will certainly continue to sell well.

Overall, I feel that there is enough evidence in favor of a third pass to say that there is a good chance we will get it. Not to mention while Sakurai has been joking about wanting to take a break and I do think a part of him wants to step away from the series for a bit, at the same time he clearly loves what he does. He did say that there is unlikely to be another game like this, ever. So he has been going all out with the DLC and I can see him pushing himself for another year or two.

For pete’s sake Sakurai, after this game take a break will you?

Want: 100%

Of course I want this to happen. There will be more chances for my most wanted to become playable. Plus characters like Leon would be in a better spot and characters from Microsoft and Square Enix would be back on the table again. How can I say no to that?

Noms: Among Us character x20

 

[Commander_Alph]

Pass 3

Chances: 20%

Well, this is kinda hard. For one thing Ultimate DLC is vastly different from before as they couldn't cut corners by adding in cut character from the previous game, so even if you go by that article in Smash 4 about not having any plans after Mewtwo is kinda anticlimactic since we know that Sakurai likes to end something with a bang so for me personally Pass 2 is already the equivalent of the Fighter Ballot "Winner" in Smash 4 but there's 6 of them. Second is that having another Pass until the end of the Switch's lifespan/until the Switch doesn't sell again is a pretty ambiguous take considering that you can't predict if that's going to happen, I mean Pass 2 were promised to end by the end of 2021 and I would expect the announcement for Pass 3 to be drop on Character 8 considering that the announcement of Pass 2 is when Pass 1 haven't even done. And third while Sakurai really enjoy developing Ultimate he still kinda needs a break no matter how faithful you are to pursue your job and this could be Nintendo saying it considering that we've seen them being thoughtful to Sakurai since he has been contributing so much to the company which I can't really see them controlling Sakurai around other than persuade him.

Other than that Sakurai already promised us that Ultimate is the peak of Smash Bros and there might be no game like this in the future so I could see him giving everything he got as this is probably his last Smash game, so why not just keep supporting the game if you don't have any project planned which is probably a strong indication of another Pass.


Want: 100%

It's obvious that it's a good offering. The surprises for that they do with every character always had me at the edge of my seat and there will be new content from a new series which is too good to passed off.

Noms: Agumon 20× (it's double noms right?)

 

[Jomosensual]

Fighters Pass 3

Chance 50 - Think it either happens or it doesn't at this point. There's plenty of stuff on each end. On the negative side Sakurai has said we're done after this and has talked about breaks a lot too. We'll also have 11 dlc fighters at the end of this pass which is quite a lot. On the other hand though, We're 3 years in and Smash hasn't really slowed down. We just had 2 internet breaking reveals and the pass has sold really well, proving momentum hasn't died on the game yet. And while Sakurai has said the stuff above, he also has said he knows that what he's working on is possibly once in a lifetime work and wants to squeeze every drop he can from it, to paraphrase. And while he talks about breaks a lot its also safe to say that he really loves what he does. I think its possible both actually could happen. Sakurai could take a few months off and surprise us at the VGAs or a direct with more fighters coming mid next year or so. With him who knows. Most of my confidence comes from the pass selling as well as it has as well.

Want 100 - Honestly at one point I thought I'd be ok if this was the end. But as we're coming up to the end of FP2 im starting to get more and more bummed. Smash speculation and reveals have been a pretty big highlight of my life the last 3 years. From losing jobs to family members and pandemics taking things away from me I've always had Smash to distract me from the more ****ty parts of life. I've kinda grown to the point where i just dont want to say goodbye yet. Add onto that we're likely not doing another game for a while and like damn, I'd just really like to be able to hold onto one of the few constants I've had in my life the last 3 years a bit longer.

Noms:
John Marston x25

 

[DaUsername]

SNKharacter 2: Metal Boogaloo
Chance: 5%
I pretty much agree with what everyone else said. SNK is pretty well represented thanks to all the content Terry brought with him. Though SNK still has enough good characters to their name that they could probably bring another one over.
Want: 75%
I still think a Metal Slug character would be really really cool. But hey, at least we got music.

Even more Stages that will immediately get banned
Chance: 15%
This is one of those "if it was gonna happen, it would have by now" things for me. Ultimate has been out for two years and the closest thing we've gotten to a non-Fighter Pass stage is Small Battlefield. It seems like they brought back all the past stages they wanted to in the base game and would rather go the easy route and just promote new games with .png files. (Except FE, of course, they get special treatment.)
Want: 100%
I know we already have 100+ stages. But having even more would still be cool.

FP3 prediction: 40%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[BowserKing]

Third Fighter’s Pass

Chance: 10%. While there are rumours that said that the second fighter’s pass would be the last, I have doubts about that. But if there we’re a Third FIghter’s Pass, it will focus on 4 fighters, due to the empty slots.

Want: 80%. It depends on the fighter’s we get for this pass, and for the previous one, since it is not completed yet. If we were to get fighters, my choices for the third Fighter’s pass includes Crash Bandicoot, a new Legend of Zelda character, a new Sonic character and Sylux. Overall, I would like to see a Third Fighter’s Pass, as long as there is Nintendo characters

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Pass that will doubtlessly include every character that should've been in

Chance: 5%
All signs are pointing to no. Sakurai has said multiple times that Vol 2 is the end of the line for Ultimate. Him running out of Pics of the Day is also a huge indicator that development is slowing down. While Ultimate's DLC has reportedly been a massive success, Nintendo has always cut off support for games pretty early on. Nothing recent has shown a trend otherwise, with games such as Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe not seeing nearly enough DLC as their successes warranted. I'll leave a door open in case they surprise us, but there's absolutely nothing pointing to this happening.

Want: abstain
It depends on many things, honestly, such as format, number of characters, and how the rest of this pass goes. If Pass 2 continues along the lines of Pass 1, then no thanks, that's enough of that; but if we start getting some surprises, then maybe a third Pass could be worth it. Also I hate when DLC for a game ends up exceeding the price of the base game, and the longer DLC goes, the more it feels like Ultimate was an awful deal cost-wise.

Noms: Marina x20

 

[SharkLord]

Third Fighter’s Pass

Chance: 10%. While there are rumours that said that the second fighter’s pass would be the last, I have doubts about that. But if there we’re a Third FIghter’s Pass, it will focus on 4 fighters, due to the empty slots.

Want: 80%. It depends on the fighter’s we get for this pass, and for the previous one, since it is not completed yet. If we were to get fighters, my choices for the third Fighter’s pass includes Crash Bandicoot, a new Legend of Zelda character, a new Sonic character and Sylux. Overall, I would like to see a Third Fighter’s Pass, as long as there is Nintendo characters

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

Quick reminder that any theory involving empty slots and in-game files don't mean anything

Yo so no clue how much people are still paying attention to the supposed voice theory and/or placeholder slots, but they don't seem to mean much of anything. I started poking around in the WoL param files to see if it was possible to add fights for the DLC characters, and in the process, I've discovered a few things about placeholder data.

• Voice Theory has absolutely no legs to stand on outside of a perfect square which is ultimately meaningless. The parameter file for the sound test (ui_voice_db.prc) has no placeholder entries in it. The entries for DLC characters are simply added to the end of the album list. The final two entries in the list are Sephiroth and Advent Cloud.
  
  
• Within the World of Light movement params (used for map movement), there exist 10 unoccupied entries. These entries start from dummy_07 and go to dummy_16. There are a few irregularities with the dummy slots. The first dummy string is dummy_02, and counting backwards from dummy_07 puts dummy_02 at Terry, leaving four slots (Plant, Joker, Hero, and Banjo) unaccounted for. The Cutting Room Floor has a bit more information that helps explain this discrepancy. I unfortunately only have the current patch to work from:
  
  A whopping 30 placeholder character slots existed in the files of the character selection screen at launch before being removed in the v2.0.0 update. There are also a slightly smaller 16 placeholder character slots in the files for the World of Light and in the attack_log_parameter.prc file, Piranha Plant and Joker from Persona 5 replaced the two placeholder slots from the World of Light and the attack_log_parameter.prc file, the Hero from Dragon Quest XI and Banjo and Kazooie did not replace of any of the placeholder slots in the World of Light, two more placeholder slots were removed in v6.0.0, Byleth from Fire Emblem: Three Houses did not take any of the placeholder slots in v7.0.0, and one slot was replaced by Min Min in v8.0.0 and Steve replaced another slot in v9.0.0, it is unknown if this applies to the rest of the DLC fighters or not.
  
  The important bits here are Plant, Joker, Min Min, and Steve replaced slots, while Hero, Banjo, and Byleth did not. If this article is accurate, then there is one dummy string (dummy_01) unaccounted for, and slots can be arbitrarily removed or added at any time.

tl;dr version, any theory that involves unused entries in game data is faulty, especially if the data never existed in the first place (voice theory)

also real leak

Spoiler: real

The removal of those 16 files is random, with some fighters replacing slots and others leaving them be. There isn't any patterns with those slots, and they don't mean anything.

 

[Lyncario]

Fixed Schedule part 15: Legacy of Lunatic Fanbase

Third Fighter Pass

Chance: 1%

Sakurai said that he was done after this fighter pass. Not that there was no plan, but that he was done, and for very understandable reasons as he has been working on Smash ever since Kid Icarus Uprising released, which is now 8 years ago. Sakurai is just a regulat human being, he needs to do something else than Smash. Basicaly, Sakurai is more than likely done with Smash at the moment and for at least a while, meaning that the only way I see a third fighter pass hapening is if Sakurai isn't the one to do it, and I just don't see that hapening. Sure, there's some empty slots and also Fighter pass 2 has been reported by Nintendo to seel extremly well, but I just don't see them continuing this game without Sakurai. Maybe after Sakurai had a break, but right after this pass, i just don't see it hapening.

Want: 80%

A third fighter pass would mean more characters, more balnce patches, and more content overall, why would anyone not want that in a game that they love? The only downside is that it would be more dlc that would make the full game even more expansive than it is currently (base game + FP1 + FP2 = 115€ currently, and that's not counting the mii costumes), but it wouldn't bother me that much personaly.

Nominations

Madeline mii x5

 

[Pillow]

Fighter Pass 3

Chance - 60%
I'm going to ahead and include future character dlc in this chance, not just a full fighters pass, which would be far lower. There definitely weren't any plans to make further DLC when they started FP2, as Sakurai has stated on record several times. Someone brought up some good points earlier about how at some point developing further DLC is less profitable than simply developing a new game. Here's the thing though - I feel like Ultimate hasn't reached that point yet. Smash has pretty much always stuck to a one game per console track record, and it'll probably be the same for Ultimate. The Switch is probably going to be around for a good long while, and Smash is simply one of Nintendo's most popular games - period. I can't help but shake the feeling that more DLC characters to help keep interest in this game up, is inevitable - even if they're not developed by Sakurai and the reins are given to someone else (god knows he deserves a break).

If this were specifically for full FP3, knock the Chance down to 10%.

Want - 100%
I want to believe.

Noms
Alll my points x FromSoftware Rep

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Chance: 10%
While Sakurai has never completely denied the possibility of this happening, he has done everything to imply Volume 2 will be all that's left. I wouldn't put it past him to say sike at the end of Character 11's presentation and announce more DLC coming but if you have to ask me, I'd feel that would likelier be in the form of individual characters that wouldn't take as much time, resources and planning. A third pass however might be something Sakurai and the DLC dev team would be too burned out for to pull off. Still, Volume 2 is doing really well from what I've heard. Might've surpassed the first pass as soon as Steve released. It's possible Nintendo would see that Ultimate still has life left and requests that Sakurai, deticated to his job, goes even further with the game. On the other hand, Nintendo doesn't really go above and beyond with paid DLC when it comes to their games. Ultimate and BotW are the only games with two big expansions and they don't always make DLC for games it would financially make sense for them to do so, like Odyssey and MK8 Deluxe. A third pass would also make the price of all the DLC together be significantly greater than the base game which may not give them such a good image. If Sakurai and his team really called it quits after Volume 2 they'd probably respect that decision.

Want: 99%
Of course, I'll take as many opportunities for my favorites to make the cut as I can get. It would also guarantee more balance patches as well as a further expansion of the crossover which would be fine by me. Tho yeah, it would be another 20-30$ people would spend which would sound scummy, particularly for those completionists. It wouldn't be much of a problem for me however since I just buy the characters individually. Also, it would give games like Resident Evil and Astral Chain another chance again maybe.

Henry Stickmin x20

 

[Louie G.]

THIRD TIME'S THE CHARM

CHANCE - 30%
It's no secret that Smash Bros has not only made Nintendo a lot of money, but has been carrying them through somewhat of a slump. Virus aside, there was very little planned for last year with not a whole lot released the year before. And then back in 2018, Smash was pretty much their entire E3 and the biggest game of the year. As others have mentioned, through these times it has made Nintendo a metric sh*t ton of revenue even if only a fraction of Smash owners have been purchasing the DLC.

Of course, all good things must eventually come to an end. Sakurai sounded like he's just about finished with DLC, but he's not exactly one to stay consistent about that kind of thing - remember when Brawl was his last Smash game? Nonetheless, if Sakurai is ready to call it quits and his contract is all wrapped up I can't see DLC moving on without him. I mean, it could, but I doubt that it will. In any case though, it's safe to take Sakurai's word at face value for now... but he loves what he does and well, Smash Ultimate is pretty much a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, after all.

I think one of the big things that justifies another pass is how Ultimate is posed to be the single biggest gaming crossover of all time, and how excited and proud Sakurai and Nintendo are to be continuing to push it forward and create something that can never ever be replicated again. With that in mind, it's easy to imagine wanting to keep going and going to expand the roster to its very limit before cutting it off. There are endless possibilities and the Switch's lifespan is nowhere near complete.

My personal stance on this is that it's not unlikely that we'll see standalone post-FP2 DLC, but I'm not currently holding out for an FP3. This was my stance on FP2 also, so make of that what you will - maybe I'll be wrong again!

WANT - 75%
Why wouldn't I? Well, a few reasons to be honest, but I still want it more than not.

The excitement surrounding these reveals is a rush, but it's one that actively distracts me and eats away at my time like nothing else. Needless to say I enjoy it, but ending DLC will also help me focus on my studies / eventual work a whole lot better yknow? Smash is such a dominating topic for me, not in a way that I consider unhealthy but one that I sometimes wish wasn't so prominent when push comes to shove. And it's gotta end eventually, it's been a good run, so cutting it off after FP2 is like ripping off a bandaid.

Nonetheless I've only got a couple more months of school left and I doubt I'll feel quite as strongly about that once I've wrapped up this final project I'm working on. So I mean, give me more if you're up for it Sakurai - maybe it'll actually be one of my MWs this time. Or not, either way.

NOMINATIONS:
BILLY AND JIMMY LEE x40

 

[Rie Sonomura]

A third fighters pass

chance: 40% and that’s being generous. On the plus side, there have been excellent sales reports for Pass 2 and that’s before Steve and Sephiroth were added. On the minus side, Sakurai has made statements in interviews such as “no plans”, “after this pass the development that’s been going on since 4 will come to an end” and slowing down the rate of POTDs, not posting them on weekends. On an ambiguous note he didn’t publicly announce this was the last one in video presentations, and at one point said Mewtwo was the only planned paid DLC for 4

want: 100% I mean, who DOESN’T want more characters and/or their most wanteds to have more chances? Also, the music that would come with new characters!

nomination: Elma x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Haven't posted here in a bit but I'll weigh in.

FP the third. Surely this time right?

Chance: 10%
What Sakurai has let us know at the moment essentially points far more towards there not being one than otherwise. FP2 is said to be the last bit of the long development since Smash 4, which is a ton of time in continous development. When presenting FP2, Sakurai mentioned thinking "one or two might suffice", from which, while this is more speculation, one can guess meant they're already pushing it due to adding a lot more characters and stages than originally planned. That all being said, it's no secret the game has done incredibly well and Nintendo knows it. You don't get "best selling fighting game" that easily. FP1 was said to do a lot as well, and FP2 likely is too with the choices they've had so far. Given the huge success, one could easily see Nintendo wanting to continue making content for the game. That being said, this is no guarantee as they might feel it's enough with this content, or would rather move to other games by this point. Sometimes they simply don't do it despite it having enough monetary reasoning, like it is the case with MK8D that didn't get anything despite the huge sales.

Want: 90%
Well why not? It's more characters and stages. which could be pretty neat. More chances for characters/stages I like and whatnot, even sometimes characters I'm not all that familiar with can surprise me. My biggest gripe would just be that it's adding even more content on top of the game, the DLC is costing more than the game itself. It's a lot. But hey, otherwise I really would not mind.

Nominations:
Estelle Bright x 20 (From what I read, it's double right? If so I just give these.)

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Filipino Potatoes 3.

Chance: 1%

I really don't see Sakurai doing this. Smash Ultimate is a massive game that took a lot of manpower, and while DLC was inevitable, to think it was going to have more than One DLC pack wasn't impossible, it was unlikely. Sakurai takes time and detail for these characters, and the fact that almost all the DLC is just guests made it even more time and money consuming (especially since some of them seemed to take many months to make) and if im honest, FP2 being 6 instead of 5 may just be his way of squeeing something more, and that's it.

Maybe i could see some individual DLC like Plant, but nothing really big outside of that.

Want: 5%

Yeah, it's that low. Why would i want less? Because if im honest, Roster-Wise, Smash Ult is (mostly) fine. I got Simon, my most wanted, alongside K.Rool and Ridley, if the DLC was like Base Game, i would put this rating way higher, but FP 1 and 2 so far have been meh to me, outside of Banjo and maybe, maybe Terry, none of them have interested me that much. I love Dragon Quest XI, but Hero in Smash is probably one of the few times where i have been actually dissapointed with a character i was invested, stupid RNG and Resource Management.

Joker? Blegh, Steve? Meh, Seph? Ugh. It's hard to be excited for the idea of more DLC when the majority of the choices ended up being characters that i didn't care about, and i don't see that changing, so why would i want more?

Also, if im being blunt, i would rather have the game be updated be fixed in some areas, and maybe bring back some modes i missed. Smash Ultimate is only known for its roster, what about the modes, and the mechanics? I think it would be cool if instead we got Smash Run Back? Or the original All Star mode? or Break The Targets, what about a customizable Target mode. We didn't even had Stage Builder in the Base Game! That was so stupid in my opinion.

Don't get me wrong, if FP3 happens and it ends up with Waluigi, Isaac, Crash and the like i would be super happy, But there's no guarantee FP3 will make me happy outside of maybe 1 or 2 characters.

It's for this reason also value the idea of giving us more modes to play with the already massive roster (im also on the way of rediscovering characters i never touched before like Rosalina, or characters i used to play like Bowser Jr) plus it would be cool if some of the characters were a little more balanced, fix the online, gave the game some quality of life updates, fix the online, touch up the game to make it feel a little less "campy" (then again, im a "Filthy" Simon main), fix the online, and fix the online.

Did i mention Ultimate's Online sucks and makes the game worse by default and made me never pay for Nintendo Online in my life? Yes? Online sucks anyway.

 

[Sari]

Concept: Third Fighters Pass

Chance: 5%
I think the fact that FP2 is being stretched out for 2 years means this is supposed to be the end. Nintendo has never really been known for giving games an incredibly long DLC cycle, otherwise we'd get constant MK8 Deluxe DLC since it's still the best-selling Switch game to this day. Also Sakurai flat-out said shortly after Min Min's reveal that the development for Ultimate would come to an end after the remaining 5 characters released. I know Sakurai often goes back on his word like with the Mewtwo thing, but the fact that he's slowing down with the developer pics makes me think that we only have 3 characters left.

At best I can see maybe a few characters being released as standalone DLC. If we do get a FP3 I feel like it'd be 4 characters at most; we'd be super lucky to get 5 while there's no way we're getting 6 again.

Regardless of whatever actually happens, I think we'll have our answer whenever CP10 gets revealed. By that point I think they'll either announce more DLC like they did after Terry's reveal or announce that the next presentation will be the last like when Cloud got revealed in SSB4.

Want: 90%
The Smash Ultimate train has been a blast. More characters is always fine with me since it's always fun to speculate. This score would definitely be a 100% if we were predicting a second Fighters Pass, however I am admittedly less interested in Smash than I was in 2019 (for starters I haven't even bothered to try out Sephiroth yet). The FP2 characters have been... alright for now; Sephiroth is cool, Min Min is ok, and Steve is... Steve. Needless to say I won't be as hyped for FP3 as I was for FP2's initial reveal.

I just hope that FP3 focuses on more first party characters since I feel FP2 won't have that many. I feel there is a ton of potential in recent Switch game characters/series so I'd like to see more of it.

------

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Today's the last day before the top seven gets locked! And with double noms, who knows what can happen?

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Second SNK Character/Concept: Stages without fighters as DLC pre-Concept: Third Fighter Pass

[Rerate] Monokuma x365
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x345
Qbby x340
Marina Liteyears x340
[Rerate] Neku x339
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x335
Concept: Among Us character x325

350 - 301

Mii Costume: Madeline x320
Henry Stickmin x305

300 - 251

Concept: A 4X strategy rep x285
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x265
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x255

250 - 201

Crazy Dave x250
Worms x245
John Marston x230
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x222

200 - 151

Tetra x200
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x187
Mike Haggar x185
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x185
Concept: Far Cry rep x184
Zagreus x170
Excitebiker x165
Agent 47 x165
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x155

150 - 101

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x150
Riptor x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Rayquaza x120
Kaede Akamatsu x120
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
Stage: Bowser's Castle x117
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Estelle Bright x110
Senator Armstrong x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108

100 - 51

Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x100
Trevor Philips x100
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x95
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
Billy & Jimmy Lee x90
Echo (Bowser) x85
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x61
Ghirahim x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Rallen (Spectrobes) x55

50 - 25

Stage: Tetris x50
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Concept: From Software rep x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Agumon x30
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
[Rerate] Louie x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
Firebrand x1

Marina Liteyears shakes past Neku and ties with Qbby for third place. Concept: Among Us character infiltrates the top seven once more, with Mii Costume: Madeleine being mysteriously taken out.

Henry Stickmin collects over 300 noms.

Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep shoots past 250 noms.

Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo ventures past 150 noms.

Concept: From Software rep and Agumon get out of the under 25 club.