Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

I said this to them but I am extending it to you as well.

Drop it.

ok

 

[JCKirbs]

Gracefully Greedy Goofball

Chance: 5%

Waluigi to me has been nothing short of a special case in the context of Smash, only second to Geno if we're specifically talking about Mario characters. Considering how much fan-demand and attention he's gotten over the years, I've always wondered why Nintendo/Sakurai haven't flipped the switch on his status in Smash; promoting him to a place where plenty of people feel that he belongs. After a deep thought, however, I personally feel that I can at least theorize reasons why that's the case and how the DLC period probably makes things even worse for him (even without any regards to how he's an Assist Trophy, although it may explain why he still is one).

To elaborate, I feel that Waluigi doesn't have much of an identity in the Mario series, especially one which can be translated into Smash. He has charm, personality, and popularity but still that doesn't give him much to work with in terms of crucial elements like a moveset. Every Mario character currently playable in Smash, including Piranha Plant, has something unique to define themselves with. Luigi really isn't just "Green Mario", and Bowser Jr. isn't just "Small Bowser". Dr. Mario I feel has the excuse of simply being Mario in a doctor's uniform, so despite being from a spin-off series himself, it makes sense that his moveset draws mostly from Mario's with some altered moves and effects. Daisy, on the other hand, seemingly suffers from the same situation Waluigi faces (a lack of an identity beyond personality and such), so making her into an Echo Fighter was probably the best they could do for someone who has only made minor appearances in the core Mario series.

So what would this mean for Waluigi, as a character who hasn't touched the core, non-spinoff Mario series at all? People have said that he could draw from the spin-off series for his moveset, but I just think that stuff like tennis rackets, karts, and dice blocks aren't things which specifically belong to Waluigi's character as a whole. (Just so I don't sound all gate-keepy, I also think the same way for my own most wanted character, Bandana Dee, in the sense that Elemental Abilities probably wouldn't fit in his moveset since they aren't standard abilities for his character. His abilities could and would revolve around abilities like the Spear, Parasol, or even Staff abilities instead from a logical standpoint). Which is why I feel that characters like Mario and Luigi have exclusive abilities (such as the Cape Feather, F.L.U.D.D, and the Poltergust) making up portions of their moveset rather than general power-ups and items in order to properly distinguish themselves from each other and other Mario characters in Smash. On the flipside, I don't particularly think there's anything stopping Sakurai from making up moves (like the Luigi Missile) for Waluigi, but the DLC characters have shown that it's probably far more easier to draw from pre-existing and exclusive abilities/moves that belong to each respective character.

Furthermore, 1st Party DLC characters aren't just plucked out of nowhere and Nintendo has proved that they like characters with promotional potential for their 1st Party games. Waluigi doesn't have a game of his own nor a game which he could promote better than any other character within the games he has been in on the Switch thus far. Additionally, I doubt we'll see "Super Smash Bros. Ultimate x Super Mario" or "Super Smash Bros. x Waluigi" either in that case, considering that the first crossover has already happened since Day 1 and the other crossover doesn't even make any sense.

At this point, the only thing that's stopping me from rating his chances as 0% is the idea of Nintendo shrugging their shoulders and pitching the idea of Waluigi becoming a bonus fighter in Smash; ending up like Plant since he wouldn't need a stage, music, or spirits. Although, in my opinion of course, he would still need a working moveset which doesn't simply rely on things which any playable character in the Mario series could utilize... so maybe I'm just being plain generous. I would also say that an ongoing amount of fan-demand would probably warrant more than a 5% chance, but someone like Geno specifically rode on fan-demand for the past several years and his fate in Ultimate was sealed far sooner than some people would've liked to realize.

Want: 25%

On top of even wanting other Mario characters over him, Waluigi isn't really my first choice for a new 1st Party rep in Smash at this point. I think he would probably be fun to play as, however, but I'm also not really in the group that feels he would belong in Smash regardless of whether or not I want him. Granted, it's not like I've been overjoyed at his appearance as an Assist Trophy for the past few games, but I can only resonate with the idea of him being playable after for so long until I realize that it would personally mean nothing to me once some time had passed. Overall, he hasn't really done anything which would make me advocate for his inclusion, essentially, so he's basically one of those characters I've thrown into the "Would really just be happy for his fans" pile.

Abstain on Isaac.
As far as I'm concerned, I know nothing about the character, the series of which he comes from, and his chances in the context of Smash.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

It's Pessimism time again buddies. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Chance: 1%

This.............this is just tragic. Golden Sun was far more popular than people give it credit for. in 2001, Golden Sun was released for the GBA, and it was success. For a company that was only known for Mario Sports games, to do this ambitious RPG in a Small System as one of the earliest titles for the system which gave it a huge advantage. It managed to sell a Million Worldwide, something Fire Emblem failed to achieve until Awakening, literally a decade after Smash Bros introduced FE to the world outisde of Japan. Sure all pre-awakening games combined sold better than GS, but Golden Sun 1 ALONE stomped each and one of them individually (Binding Blade, Radiant Dawn, the NES games) and the same thing can be said for the Lost Age. Neither of those 2 were unpopular at all.

Im not saying this as a PP measuring contest, but it shows that Golden Sun had its audience and easily could have made it in Brawl as one of its major roster additions, so why was he just an Assist Trophy? He wasn't unpopular at all in Smash disscussions, in fact the Pre-Brawl era was the peak of Isaac's popularity as a Smash request. Other characters from far (at the time) nicher series like Lucas and Ike got in and yet poor Isaac was not allowed. Olimar had only two games in his belt when he was added in Brawl, and the discrepancy in sales (and presumably popularity) between these two series at the time wasn't exactly noticable.

In 2010, Isaac showed up in a new game: Golden Sun Dark Dawn. It wasn't as successful as the earlier two entries, but that didn' stopped Ike to get in Brawl, and he was still relatively relevant of a character as much as Little Mac who also had a game released in a close timeframe to Isaac and got in Smash 4, so one would think maybe this time Isaac could get his chance since Golden Sun still had an aura of popularity. Instad, his Assist Trophy didn't return and didn't even had a trophy, which many (inlcuding myself) saw it as a positive for Isaac's possible inclusion as DLC..................it didn't happened. Come Smash Ult and his exclusion as an Assist Trophy wasn't as surprising this time around..............that wasn't until the Nov Direct where he was shown as an AT, they waited for literally the last possible second to show him as an AT. It was supposed to be a "throw the dog a bone" moment for Isaac fans who were holding for him, but it felt more like a kick to the ballsack in what in my opinion was, and still is the worst Smash Direct ever.

If this was Smash Brawl and 4, i would have given Isaac a far larger score. Hell i remember giving Isaac a 40% Chance in 2015, i was that optimistic of him. It was a mistake some will tell me, but i don't regret it. You would think a franchise that managed to achieve this level of success DESPITE coming from an unprove developer, DESPITE lacking major advertising and marketing sans that one commercial with the weird Dragon Chandeliere-thingy, and most important of all, DESPITE having no presence in Smash at all at the time of the release of the first 2 games (Brawl was the first time Golden Sun was ever referenced)

So what happun'?

Well i believe it's one reason, and one reason only: The development team behind GS, Camelot. First, the major mistake of waiting until the last days of the DS's lifetime to make a Golden Sun game was a BAAAAAAAAD choice. Golden Sun's timing was one of the major contributors to its success. It was simple, basic, yet very fun and friendly to newcomers and the ide of launching it as one of the early titles of the GBA was a genius move. By the time Dark Dawn came on the DS, there was Pokemon Diamond, Pearl, Platinum, HeartGold, SoulSilver hell even ****ING Black and White. There's also other RPGs like Mario & Luigi Parthners in Time, Bowser's Inside Story, Final Fantasy 3, etc. Golden Sun couldn't compete in such an oversaturated market.

The other one beign well.............i don't think Camelot is that well regarded as a developer. Not now and even maybe not even back then. They are not hated at all but clearly they are not at the top of the prioirity of developers. Olimar may have had 2 games and was very niche, but it was one of Miyamoto's Brain Children and anyone who dares defy the word of the all mighty Miyamoto is 99% percent wrong. FE literally struggled to survive for ****ing 12 games but Sakurai is a FE fanboy and close associate of IS so special preference they get. You can also see this in other developers who work for and/or work closely to Nintendo. Despite Rare literally beign gone since 2002, it's clear people at Nintendo still have an attachment to the brand, as evident by K.Rool and ESPECIALLY Banjo's trailer. I could go on and on but i think i made my point. The more i think of Earthbound the less i understand why it's even featured this much in Smash when it's absurdly small in the grand scheme of things (HOT TAKE: Mother would haven't gotten its popularity if it wasn't featured in Smash, in a world where Both Golden Sun and Mother had no characters in Smash, im 100% Golden Sun would be talked about more, because it actually managed to be more successful on its own) but the fact that Sakurai seems to be close associates with Itoi is honestly suscpicious to me. Im gonna be blunt here and say that if Golden Sun was made by IS, we would have seen Isaac by now. Some developer teams are better regarded than others. Isaac's moveset potential, his fan demand, nothing of it matters. He ended up suffering the same fate as Chibi Robo, Custom Robo, and other Nintendo C-Stars despite Isaac agruably beign far more popular in his prime than any of them (no offense to these awesome underdogs though)

Camelot, despite having a good selling game series on their hands, couldn't escape the mantra of beign "the company who makes Mario Sports games and created Walugi", then they make a mistake with the series ONCE (releasing a game far too late into a console's lifespan) everything Golden Sun related came crumbling down, and became a shadow of its former self. Back to nothing but Mario Sports.

Now all Isaac has is beign a video game character. Golden Sun is..................dead. The interest for a revival is there, but the people behind the games either have no interest, or resources, or even both.

Want: 100(000000000)%

This breaks my heart. Isaac was one of my most wanted in Smash 4, and is one of the reasons why i do look fondly to Smash speculation (specifically the pre-release era of Smash 4) I was interesed in Golden Sun and so i played it and the Lost Age. These 2 have managed to become two of my favorite games not just as RPGS, not just of the GBA, but one of my favorite games in general. They represent memories and and escapism for what was for me a sort of dark year for me due to the uncertain future i had ahead (of course, compared to 2020, 2015 is a ****ing godsend) and was THE time Smash introduced me to a series i originally was not interesed in, and it's the one that had stuck out the most.

If i got to choose which character i would want to put in Smash, it would be Isaac? Why? I want Isaac in Smash for one reason specifically, so that the character and his franchise don't become forgotten. Banjo will not get a game anytime soon, but i can always give him a go in Smash. Captain Falcon is in hibernation but Smash keeps him awake. Mother will never get a new game again but its legacy lives on not only in the spiritual inspirations like Undertale and LISA, but in Smash too.

Isaac? I don't think he's even gonna be an AT by the next game. The fanbase will simply give up or and its members will move onto another franchises that haven't been left as corpses. Hell that almost happened in Smash 4, and if it wasn't by the demand of Isaac as a playable character, we wouldn't have even gotten his Assist Trophy in Ultimate. It's the best he got. Bandanna Dee, Waluigi, Captain Toad, hell even Dixie Kong will likely somehow survive into the next console generation and could get in Smash, but Isaac died in the last gen.

It's ironic to see a character like Simon, someone who i saw as a borderline-impossible dream for me in Smash, made it into the game in the exact way i wanted him, while Isaac, a character i considered marginally possible, is pretty much a forgotten relic now.

I apologize if i don't speak too much of the character himself. He's pretty damn neat. While a basic silent protagonist sword wielder, he is also a Venus Adept who can use Earth Magic, basically an Earthbender. We have seen millions of Fire Users and Ice Users in fiction and media, not just Smash, and seeing a character who uses Earth Powers in a major capicity, even if its a sword user (Isaac's swordplay isn't anything super-unique) would be great breath of fresh air.

But that's not going to happen, Golden Sun is dead now, and even if ATs were somehow to get promotions, i expect Waluigi, Bomberman, hell even Lyn before Isaac even becomes an idea that crosses Sakurai's mind. Golden Sun is gone forever, and no trademarks or fake rumors will ever change that. It's too late now. Maybe it's better that way, i would rather see a franchise and series die instead of becoming something i actively dislike such as the modern Paper Mario games or Netflix's adaptation of Castlevania. (im afraid of the Clone High Reboot) but the fact that Isaac missed the boat on joining the Smash roster possibly forever is something that still pops on in my brain. I would gladly trade Fighter Pass 1 AND 2 for the remaining Grinch Leak characters because that includes Isaac.

He may have still some major support, but if that support could NOT help you get in Smash in your prime, it's not gonna change anything now.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Chance: Abstain.

I.....can't give an unbiased rating on this guy. I don't think i can say too much here either. Moveset potential is not an excuse against his inclusion, not when you put a PLANT here. Appearing in Spin Offs only seem like a shallow excuse, especially when the other 2 characters, Rosalina and Bowser JR, now have become Spin Off Fodder after their debuts (well, Bowser Jr. managed to stick out longer, but he still got kicked out anyway). Popularity is big with this guy. Some may say it's because of memes, but if Sans can get in as a Mii Costume(face it, Sans is a meme) i don't see why Waluigi's "meme status" puts him down.

But he's also an AT, and the more i think of it i don't see us getting an AT promotion anymore. I will say though, if there's any character that can disprove the "FirsST PARTiES ArenT HypEE" narrative, it's this guy. If Waluigi were to get in, im pretty sure the reaction would surpass Ridley, the Belmonts, K.Rool, Isabelle, Inci and Ken, Plant, Joker, Hero, Banjo, Terry, Byleth and Min Min, and every other character that comes after him.

The other thing i can say for him is that like Steve, i see him as inevitable by the next entry. This is a character that will persist in popularity no matter what.

Want:

1000000%

My want score, that's different, this is my most wanted Character for Smash as of now. Waluigi is my favorite Mario Character no doubt, his wacky personality, his akward design, and the underdog status makes me love him. I root for the underdog, get that ****ty KOF character known as Iori out of the roster, the U.S Sports Team are superior, Yamcha is the best OG DB character, Grant Danasty > Alucard any day of the week. so on and so forth.

When i play a Mario game, i chose Waluigi as soon as i get the chance. Mario Kart 8? Waluigi. Mario Kart Wii? Waluigi. Mario Kart 7? That game can rot in hell. Mario Parties? Waluigi. Mario Tennis? Waluigi. etc, etc, etc. If Waluigi makes it into Smash, he could be the ONLY character that surpassses Simon when it comes to my most played character. When i want a character in Smash i want to PLAY as them, and i would certainly play Waluigi so much that the game would think im married to him.

I don't think i need to explain how Waluigi would fight. Give him a Tennis Racket for certain attacks, maybe a bob omb and his swimming ability...................and go nuts for the rest. Usually im against making **** up for characters like Sakurai did with Wario or Ganondorf, but this guy? No no no no no no, Sakurai, go creative with this one, as much as you can.

I wish i could go on and on and on but Waluigi is a character that speaks for itself. He's like Bomberman, like Dixie Kong, i shouldn't be even be talking about this character because he should already be in, "MUH MAIN SERIES REEEEE" whiners can **** off.

Regarding my ratings, nothing has changed for these 2. AT promotions are hella unlikely, and part of me is convinced that Lyn is just a little more likely due to her being from FE (i know i sound like Hurr Durr FE BAD, but i have seen time and time again how it always has gotten favoritism) but outside of that little chance, none of these are likely. Waluigi is simply too unpredictable to see happening now, and Isaac is dead, and not amount of Trademarks will change it. Besides, Golden Sun is already decently represented in Smash, why would they decide to make Isaac playable now? Just because there's an hypothetical new game around the corner? Come on.

It's always sad seeing characters like this being less likely as time goes on, but nothing can really be be Done.

1% Chance for both.

As for Want? Well, the Camelot brothers get, as before, My Full Want score: 100%

Waluigi is now my favorite Mario character. I have come to unironically love his dumb deisgn from his lanky legs to big nose to weird mustache and his Purple Scheme. I just also love the feel of wackyness and chaotic Neutral that he emits from his personality, nothing but a self-pitying party pooper who wants to succeed but always fails. If there's a Mario game where he's playable, you can bet your ass im gonna play the **** out of him. He is one of the most popular and recognizable Mario characters now and will easily make up for the underwhelming and dissapointing DLC of Ultimate, even if he was an individual character DLC like PP.

As for Isaac, i actually want him a little more though. If you asked me which one of these two i would put in Ultimate, Isaac would be my choice. Because if he got in Smash as a playable fighter, Golden Sun would live on via Smash because its never coming back, but i could find solace in it being in Nintendo's retirement home like F-Zero, Mother and Banjo-Kazooie. I love Waluigi, but he is not leaving anytime soon.

 

[Inue Houji]

Waluigi
Chance: 12%
The purple brother who always gets left out. Maybe this time will be his turn in the spotlight?
I don't think assist trophies deconfirm outright. I do however believe they won't happen unless something significant happens. In Waluigi's case, this has already happened with the backlash when he got revealed.
He's almost definitely the most well known/requested first-party character left, so there's only a matter of time until he gets added. Whether it will happen in this game remains to be seen though.

Want: 99%
He's just a fun character. While the memes can be overbearing at times, that only goes to show that people love this guy. His lanky frame and wacky antics, along with moves from the wide variety of sports/party games, could make for a really fun character. The only reason it's not a 100% want is because the music and spirit department would be sparse.


Isaac
Chance: 4%
A lot has been said about him already. A new Golden Sun game could be in the works, but that doesn't mean he's gonna be DLC. As I mentioned earlier, for an assist trophy to be upgraded, something significant needs to change. While the game is one such reason, it would likely already have been in development before Ultimate's release. Which would make the AT an odd inclusion if he was planned as a fighter.
Plans change however, so there's still a chance.

Want: 80%
I played the game until a bit after Mercury Lighthouse, then my phone froze and had to be repaired and reformatted, wiping my progress. I plan to play it again eventually, but I'm currently playing through Tales of Zestiria, then Berseria, and I like to keep my mind focused on one story at the time.
The game has great spritework, nice character designs and a decent story(as far as I've played). The star of the show is the music though. The original arrangement of Doom Dragon/Felix theme from brawl is still one of the best tracks in the game.
Motoi Sakuraba has done a lot of arrangements for this game, so it would be fun to see other composers try their hand at arranging his compositions.


Predictions
Master Chief: 7.4%
Kratos: 4.8%

Nominations
Beat x20

 

[NintenZ]

Oh **** was not expecting yesterday to end as early as it did

I still wanted to do my ratings for the last day though so I'll do them in addition to the ones for today

Sora

Chance: 10%

Tbh I think his ship has sailed. We JUST got a Nomura character he likely played a part in the inclusion of and I doubt we'd get another in the same pass. If this was before Sephiroth he would've been a 50% as I still think Nomura has a good enough relationship with the Smash team for him to go with a character from his darling series, Disney and Nintendo have a pretty good relationship overall and KH has made it's way onto the Switch via Melody of Memory, and KH is easily one of the biggest franchises that Square has involvement with not in Smash. But Sephiroth made him take a massive hit and I don't see him recovering from this one, to me he'd either be in or have nothing at all and honestly I'm leaning towards nothing at all.

Want: 100%

If my signature isn't enough of an indictor though, what a damn shame this is. Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite franchises that I have a lot of attatchment to. Sora would be an amazing choice in Smash. He'd bring along so much content with him and he'd have a really unique moveset as well likely focusing on the abilities he does in Kingdom Hearts (There's just so much to pull from honestly). I think he fits into Smash like a glove and seeing him with all-stars like Mario and Link just feels so right. It's honestly a shame I really do not see him happening, because by all means this would be a dream come true for me.

Layton

Chance: 20%

I don't think he fares really well at all. The recent Layton games have been shifting the focus away from him and onto his daughter Kaitrelle. Layton's story ended with the Azran Legacy which was released eight years ago. This is also not taking into account the current situation with Level-5, they're not doing too hot with their North American branch being shuttered and their recent games coming back with disappointing numbers overall. Back during the Smash 4 days he would've honestly seemed like one of the more likely third-party characters, but times have changed and unfortunately I don't think the professor's chances hold up very well.

Want: Abstain

I have to admit I haven't played his games yet, I've always been interested in them but I haven't had the opportunity to play them. Rather than come up with a rating based on an uninformed inference I might have about the franchise without the proper knowledge I have on it, I'll instead wait on whenever I get to his series and make a judgement on how much I'd want him from there, but he seems like a pretty cool character and the franchise also seems really neat so I'm not really opposed to the idea all too much I just don't know enough to make an inference

Now for today's ratings:

I'm going to rate both character's chances at the same time. I'm doing a 1% chance rating for both of them, they are videogame characters so they don't get a zero. While they are requested I just don't see the team going for them as DLC for their own individual reasons, in Waluigi's instance he's a Mario side character who has yet to have made one major appearance in a mainline game, and in Isaac's instance his franchise while it did well back in it's heyday, is extremely dormant and has an uncertain future. This is not taking into account the fact that both are Assist Trophies, but honestly if Assists do get promotions they aren't the ones I have my eyes on (This may come up a later day when it's more relevant).

Onto the want scores for both of them:

Waluigi

Want: 0%

God I'm going to anger some people with this aren't I? Please hear me out and at least try to understand where I'm coming from. I completely acknowledge and respect the character's popularity, but god I just don't find him very interesting. At all. Like none of the ideas people have said for him have really stood out to me as being super interesting, he could be fun I guess but I want to see Smash inclusions try to do something a little different from other characters and he just doesn't seem super interesting in that regard. He's also not very important to any Mario or Wario game outside of being spin-off filler in some games, like at least Daisy was important the one time and the plant, while ****ing stupid, at least is a staple enemy in the Mario series. Don't take this rating as me being entirely against the idea, I'm just not very intrigued by the idea at all and I'd prefer other Mario or Wario characters over him is all. If Waluigi did more and had more importance in games then I might be more open to the idea

Isaac

Want: Abstain

Haven't played any Golden Sun outside of a very small bit of Dark Dawn, I probably should since I hear all of them are pretty good, they're on my list for games I eventually want to get to. Like with Layton it wouldn't be fair rating a character I have zero experience with, so I'm going to refrain from saying anything about the character. I do think a character like him who's a geomancer could be pretty interesting in Smash and I'd be pretty happy for his fans if he ended up getting in. We'll just have to see what happens.

So yeah that's four ratings from me today, apologies for being late I was consumed by Xenoblade which has taken up most of my time for the past week so I hope you can understand.

Nominations:
Kaede Akamatsu (10x)
A Xenoblade character (10x)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Oh **** was not expecting yesterday to end as early as it did

I still wanted to do my ratings for the last day though so I'll do them in addition to the ones for today

Sora

Chance: 10%

Tbh I think his ship has sailed. We JUST got a Nomura character he likely played a part in the inclusion of and I doubt we'd get another in the same pass. If this was before Sephiroth he would've been a 50% as I still think Nomura has a good enough relationship with the Smash team for him to go with a character from his darling series, Disney and Nintendo have a pretty good relationship overall and KH has made it's way onto the Switch via Melody of Memory, and KH is easily one of the biggest franchises that Square has involvement with not in Smash. But Sephiroth made him take a massive hit and I don't see him recovering from this one, to me he'd either be in or have nothing at all and honestly I'm leaning towards nothing at all.

Want: 100%

If my signature isn't enough of an indictor though, what a damn shame this is. Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite franchises that I have a lot of attatchment to. Sora would be an amazing choice in Smash. He'd bring along so much content with him and he'd have a really unique moveset as well likely focusing on the abilities he does in Kingdom Hearts (There's just so much to pull from honestly). I think he fits into Smash like a glove and seeing him with all-stars like Mario and Link just feels so right. It's honestly a shame I really do not see him happening, because by all means this would be a dream come true for me.

Layton

Chance: 20%

I don't think he fares really well at all. The recent Layton games have been shifting the focus away from him and onto his daughter Kaitrelle. Layton's story ended with the Azran Legacy which was released eight years ago. This is also not taking into account the current situation with Level-5, they're not doing too hot with their North American branch being shuttered and their recent games coming back with disappointing numbers overall. Back during the Smash 4 days he would've honestly seemed like one of the more likely third-party characters, but times have changed and unfortunately I don't think the professor's chances hold up very well.

Want: Abstain

I have to admit I haven't played his games yet, I've always been interested in them but I haven't had the opportunity to play them. Rather than come up with a rating based on an uninformed inference I might have about the franchise without the proper knowledge I have on it, I'll instead wait on whenever I get to his series and make a judgement on how much I'd want him from there, but he seems like a pretty cool character and the franchise also seems really neat so I'm not really opposed to the idea all too much I just don't know enough to make an inference

Now for today's ratings:

I'm going to rate both character's chances at the same time. I'm doing a 1% chance rating for both of them, they are videogame characters so they don't get a zero. While they are requested I just don't see the team going for them as DLC for their own individual reasons, in Waluigi's instance he's a Mario side character who has yet to have made one major appearance in a mainline game, and in Isaac's instance his franchise while it did well back in it's heyday, is extremely dormant and has an uncertain future. This is not taking into account the fact that both are Assist Trophies, but honestly if Assists do get promotions they aren't the ones I have my eyes on (This may come up a later day when it's more relevant).

Onto the want scores for both of them:

Waluigi

Want: 0%

God I'm going to anger some people with this aren't I? Please hear me out and at least try to understand where I'm coming from. I completely acknowledge and respect the character's popularity, but god I just don't find him very interesting. At all. Like none of the ideas people have said for him have really stood out to me as being super interesting, he could be fun I guess but I want to see Smash inclusions try to do something a little different from other characters and he just doesn't seem super interesting in that regard. He's also not very important to any Mario or Wario game outside of being spin-off filler in some games, like at least Daisy was important the one time and the plant, while ****ing stupid, at least is a staple enemy in the Mario series. Don't take this rating as me being entirely against the idea, I'm just not very intrigued by the idea at all and I'd prefer other Mario or Wario characters over him is all. If Waluigi did more and had more importance in games then I might be more open to the idea

Isaac

Want: Abstain

Haven't played any Golden Sun outside of a very small bit of Dark Dawn, I probably should since I hear all of them are pretty good, they're on my list for games I eventually want to get to. Like with Layton it wouldn't be fair rating a character I have zero experience with, so I'm going to refrain from saying anything about the character. I do think a character like him who's a geomancer could be pretty interesting in Smash and I'd be pretty happy for his fans if he ended up getting in. We'll just have to see what happens.

So yeah that's four ratings from me today, apologies for being late I was consumed by Xenoblade which has taken up most of my time for the past week so I hope you can understand.

Nominations:
Kaede Akamatsu (20x)
A Xenoblade character (20x)

Ya are only getting 20 noms unfortunately, since yesterday's wont count towards extra noms. I know some people were a little antsy since the day before went on a little long.

 

[NintenZ]

Ya are only getting 20 noms unfortunately, since yesterday's wont count towards extra noms. I know some people were a little antsy since the day before went on a little long.

Alright that’s fine then, I didn’t know the specifics so I’ll subtract ten from each.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna keep this shorter than usual.

Everybody Cheated!

20% Chance

After reflection last time, I lowballed Waluigi a bit. I think it's important to say that he is one of those requests that was very big this time...which to me might end up being the problem for Waluigi for now. He is a very recent request in terms of when he blew up. His demand did not really blow up much until this game. RTC base game actually was a little ahead of the curve here, he did very well in want for base game. But his fan demand really spiked in this game tbh. While this is not as big an issue compared to Sm4sh given, well, how vocal his fans were, it to me at least feels like he might have a better chance the later we go into Smash DLC or if we get an Ultimate Director's Cut.

Really, its a tug of war between is his fan demand enough that he would end up getting in despite being an AT. I think the AT rule, while not a death knell like some people say, is a big hurdle. Fan rules have been proven wrong a lot. Min Min disproved Spirits deconfirm. Sephiroth added a second character for a third party franchise that was not an echo. We know that plenty of fan rules have been broken, but ATs as DLC is one that has remained strong so far. Granted, we only have 12-13 newcomers as DLC depending on how you classify Plant, but it still has some logic behind it. At the very least, this is a character I could see us getting as a bonus fighter, similar to plant.

15% Want

I was a bit too harsh on Waluigi last time, but his fans did rub me the wrong way overall. I don't like the fact this is basically a complete meme tier pick. The fact that the main source of outrage came from Twitter, where it honestly is hard to tell whether people are ****posting or serious makes it seem to me that at least some of his support started as one big joke that snowballed. I think at the very least the character would be fun because even if he is not visually interesting, he is at least funny. Waluigi is a very expressive character, and while this rarely matters for smash, Waluigi would just be funny to some extent. That being said, the whole twitter meme portion turned me off, especially when some of his fans have been quite abrasive. Not my outright least favorite DLC newcomer choice anymore, but one that I would prefer not to have.


Here comes the sun!

25% Chance

Yeah, I think Isaac is a bit likelier than Waluigi. While the trademarks are not a guarantee of anything, it would make a little sense to use Isaac as both a shill choice and a fan service rep at the same time, at least to me. I mean, Nintendo has been hush hush of their 2021 library beyond February. Combine that with probable delays due to COVID and it would make sense for it to be pushed back. Granted, nothing is confirmed, but the weird parts of the evidence do intrigue me.

Isaac also has been a historically popular fan request since Brawl. Golden Sun has a good little niche in history with it being one of those big games on the GBA. While it is far from the best written JRPG, the combat system and graphics made it a staple in the GBA lineup. I think this is what lead Isaac to be this long running fan request since Brawl. In the fan demand game, Isaac seems like one of the biggest absences in terms of these long running, consistently popular fan requests. While Geno did show us that fan demand is not an end all be all, we did get a bunch of explicit fan demand choices. Most of our newcomers, while not the iconic fan favorites, were crowd pleasers. I would say that if we did get this old school, fan pleaser character that is directly tied to Smash demand ala Banjo, Isaac fits the bill.

Once again, the main hurdle is the fact that Isaac is an AT. While his franchise is currently dormant, there are signs of life. It really depends on whether ATs are dead as disco. I think Isaac has a decent shot, but not something I would be super confident in.

100% Want

TBH, this would be one of my preferred first party choices that are somewhat realistic, alongside Rex and Officer Howard. I enjoyed what I played of Golden Sun. I like Isaac's design and he screams moveset potential to me. The idea of a character who is a sorcerer first and a swordsman second is interesting as heck to me. It is part of why I love Robin, and part of why I would love Isaac. The music also is pretty solid, so that is a boon in my book. While Isaac has never been my most wanted, he is always a character I thought would be cool. I mean, I can name plenty of characters that were seen as likely that I wanted more than Isaac for Sm4sh or Ultimate, but Isaac would make me happy. It also helps that I love to see hype, and Isaac is someone I know would be a real crowd pleaser.

Neku x 15
Haggar x 5

 

[Sari]

Waluigi

Want: 100%
Yeah yeah I know Waluigi is the worst thing to ever happen to Smash and all that but I just really like the guy. He's one of the most hilarious Mario characters and one that I would often use in the Mario spin-off games. He would also be a fantastic way to represent the Mario spin-off games which aren't really represented well atm. I know his fanbase can be... annoying at times, but I've wanted him since Brawl so that's only a minor inconvenience for me. Seeing Waluigi always lose in both his actual games and in Smash makes me want him even more.

-----

I'll abstain on everything else since I'm really not sure what to make of AT promotions at this rate to give chance scores for these two. Plus I've only played a tiny bit of Golden Sun to give Isaac a fair want score.

I will say a few things about Isaac though: while the trademark thing might indicate a new game, I'm not going to put that much stock into it until we get some sort of official reveal. Even if we are getting a new Golden Sun, I wouldn't really consider it a game changer as we've seen time and time again that just because you've got a new shiny game coming out doesn't mean you're guaranteed a slot (Travis, Paper Mario, Impa, etc.). Not to mention the trademark situation may not even help his chances if we don't get any official news of a new Golden Sun soon. Yes I am well aware that Isaac has a ton of things going for him already, but with FP2 ending this year then the time to shill for a currently unreleased game is getting smaller with each passing day.

That said though... I sort of hope a new Golden Sun does happen since it could be sign of hope for Nintendo reviving some of their other old IPs. Maybe after they're done with Golden Sun, they'll go for another popular series that was on the GBA (preferably one that features infantry soldiers, tanks, and airports)?

-----

Master Chief chance prediction: 19.24%
Kratos chance prediction: 3.41%

-----

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x5 (or x10 if I qualify for that)

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain because i really wanna get to new chars
nominations: peppino x5

 

[Dan Quixote]

Whoopsie looks like I missed a few days. Got busy irl lol and I come back to a day with characters who are kinda boring to talk about by now so I'll abstain and start anew tomorrow. At least I can nominate!

That's Tetra x5 baby

Oh and if I'm allowed to predict with an abstain post: Master Chief 10%, Kratos 10%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Some songs for today's characters:

Waluigi

Spoiler: Waluigi Music

Isaac

Spoiler: Golden Sun Music

If you were looking for official Waluigi music I got one right here.

 

[DaUsername]

The Guy We Should Have Got Instead Of Ike
Chance: 0.01%
I'll start out by saying I still don't think ATs are very likely. I know the last few newcomers have proven me wrong on various other things, but my opinion on ATs still stands. However, even if Isaac wasn't an AT, his chance would still be in the gutter for one very important reason
Golden Sun is dead.
I know people don't want to accept this fact, but it's the truth. It has been over a decade since the last GS game, and I don't another one happening any time soon.
"But what about the trademark renewal?"
There have been a lot of those that have led to nothing, especially from Nintendo. I'm not sure why people think Nintendo would even consider a new GS game, especially when they've left more popular franchises like F-Zero as rotting corpses for even longer. Even if I'm wrong and GS does pop out of its grave with a new game, there's a good chance that the only content from it we'd see in Smash if 4 .png files, just like every other Nintendo game from the last 2 years. (Except Special Treatment Emblem, obviously.)
Want: 50%
While I absolutely think Isaac deserves to be in, there's a few other Nintendo franchises that I think should get a character first. Like Rhythm Heaven and Advance Wars.

The Guy We Should Have Got Instead Of Plant
I'll just quote what I said last time.

Chance: 0.01%
Waluigi has been highly requested for nearly a decade, but when it was time to add a new character to Smash Ultimate, someone else was chosen over him.
Was it a more popular character? No.
Was it a more important character? No.
Was it a more recent character? No.
It was a plant.
If that isn't an obvious indicator that nobody involved with the development of Smash cares about him, i don't know what is.
Want: 75%
I would be very glad if I was proven wrong, though. I am one of the many people who has wanted Waluigi in for years, and I definitely think he'd be a fun character to play as.
But hey, at least there's Brawl Minus.

Kratos prediction: 15%, people will overrate the heck out of this one because of Fortnite
Chief prediction: 30%, this one will be a battle of people who think we're getting a third Fighter Pass vs. people who think we aren't
Noms: Senator Armstrong x however many I earned

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Today we got Console Wars, with Kratos and Master Chief both entering the fray as the last characters of the fixed schedule. That does not mean it is ending though! Tomorrow we have two concepts we are rating: A Second SNK rep and Concept: Stage without a Fighter as Paid DLC. Predict these two.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The Doom Slayer

Chance: 5% Call it a gut feeling but I'm not willing to count him out just yet, Steve is another MS character makes him pretty unlikely in the eyes of many, and understandably so, but at the same time, I just end up thinking "Microsoft is playing ball so easily with Nintendo, they wouldn't refuse another opportunity". I'm lowballing it because I agree that 2 MS characters sounds unlikely as hell, but Chief is HUGE. Revolutionizing his genre, helping push online gaming to mainstream and being the mascot of a multi billion dollar company would guarantee major credentials. One other issue is that he may not feel as special as we got a legit huge MS character as of Steve and Banjo was also owned by MS, but I feel Halo's size still means he'd make people go "Wow, I never thought the day would come!"

Want: 100% I don't have the most experience with Halo, I've played Reach, 1 and 2, though I dropped 2 because I really want to play it with my partner but I've been forgetting to ask them. Reach was alright but goddamn Halo 1 managed to blow my expectations out of the water, the level design still holds up so well and the MCC may very well be the best gaming collection I've ever seen, I accidentally tapped the select button once and the game's HD remade graphics instantly flipped back to the original xbox graphics, like, holy ****, that's ****ing godlike. Beyond that though, do I think Chief would bring fun to the table? What, are you high, of course I do, we don't have many dedicated gunners in Smash and the closest to Chief we currently have is Joker using a pistol, so even without his wide arsenal of cool weaponry from standard pistols and ARs to the Needlers and Gravity Hammers, he'd stand out very well! For his playstyle, I imagine him being slow, but he'd be very calculating, probably due to bullets typically having narrow hitboxes meaning you need to put effort into your shots. From this and Halo's somewhat slow pacing, I see him as someone who wants to play keepaway a lot, while we have a lot of characters like this in recent memory, Sakurai clearly doesn't care as long as they're still fun. Outside of guns, there's a bunch of support weaponry, most notably a bubble shield, I can imagine Sakurai letting Chief set up a portable bubble shield as a reflector that works similar to the Gardevoir AT, also referencing the shields you'd typically find in combat. A slow, tanky zoner who can deal with enemy projectiles sounds pretty interesting and I'm all for it.

That one guy from Tales of Symphonia

Chance: 1% I want to go into detail on something real quick. When talking about third parties back in the Brawl days, Sakurai had this to say. "it might be something like a courtesy to include a character who has the experience of being on a Nintendo platform." Loads of people used this to claim Nintendo relevancy was a huge factor, so much so that during the Smash 4 days, support threads would get shut down for not being Nintendo enough. However, the wording here is interesting in hindsight, a courtesy is a nice thing to do, but never a requirement, like bringing a bottle of wine when visiting or offering to help clean up after having dinner at a friend. In the Smash 4 days, Sakurai had 3 things to say involving Cloud. "A number of people fixate on the fact his original game was never released on a Nintendo console, but if we were to limit our choices to characters who appeared on a Nintendo console, we’d end up with Bartz from FFV or the Onion Knight from FFIII" This dismisses the idea of Nintendo relevance being a huge factor. " I might have had misgivings if Cloud had never appeared on a Nintendo console in any form, though." This wording is interesting, not just because it means small, minor cameos are enough in Sakurai's book, which surprise surprise also applies to Kratos as of the Fortnite thing, but notice how Sakurai doesn't say he'd outright have misgivings, but rather 'might' have had them. This suggests he isn't that sure himself at that point. " I think we should forget about console wars and focus on what's really important: enjoying the games themselves" This last one is especially telling to me, as he also said this when talking about Banjo, from all this, I can conclude Sakurai wouldn't object to a Sony character in Smash should they approach him. Now to actually get in to Kratos, because goddamn that was a lot of stuff just to explain why he doesn't deserve a flatout 0. As already mentioned, he currently has a Nintendo appearance because of Fortnite, but beyond that, Kratos has genuine merit, he's literally the most iconic Playstation character and his role in the industry was huge, hack and slashes were pushed by DMC and Ninja Gaiden but God of War? God of War kicked the door open to the outright mainstream, everyone wanted a piece of that pie after GoW, even Sonic ended up copying it. Kratos' only potential issue is Sony not wanting to play ball, which hey, that's a very reasonable assumption to make and I won't be surprised of people wrote out 0 scores because of it, Sony's proven that they're hard to play ball with and only recently started letting crossplay happen after a major controversy and let their star Kratos appear on non Somy systems, though there's also Horizon Zero Dawn becoming multiplat too, I can't write him off entirely because I only really see good signs, just nothing that makes Kratos specifically look good and an admittedly major potential issue.

Want: 30% For the longest time I didn't care for God of War for one major reason. Kratos is an absolute asshole. This goes beyond personal opinion as the prequel game was made because the devs felt that Kratos was too unlikeable and tried to figure out how to make him likeable again, after all, the conflict of GoW2 last I checked was Kratos was being a **** and got kicked out of Olympus, to which he then murders the Olympians out of revenge. Kratos was also an example of how childish and male centred the industry was imo, Kratos' response to everything was to angrily murder everyone in his way even when he's to blame for killing his wife and daughter and being a huge ****, there's a bunch of unneeded sex scenes because gotta appeal to horny teens and one example that stands out to me is that in Mortal Kombat 9, Kratos was not allowed to be portrayed as fearful, so he'd never react to Fatalities with anything but a frowny face. However, one thing changed. The ps4 happened and alongside it, Dad of Boi. I watched a lets play of it as a group I watched chose to play it as one's a major fan of the series, and I thought "People say Kratos gets to be an actual character now so why not". There's one part in the story that I cannot forget because of how much it stood out to me. The game goes out of it's way to say Kratos is a loving yet misguided parent, coming off as uncaring and frustrating his kid by not answering any of his questions, but spoiler warning,

Spoiler

After Atreus finds out he's a demigod, he brutally kills without a care due to believing there to be no consequences. Kratos' reaction is truly memorable as for possibly the first time in his history, he looked ****ing terrified as he was scared Atreus would repeat his mistakes. That alone made him actually feel like he was a human character and not big strong angry man.

Beyond that, there's what he brings to the table and although I've no experience with him as when I played PSABR I chose other characters and I don't own a Sony version of Shovel Knight, I'd be a ****in fool to pretend Kratos doesn't sound fun to play, the Blades of Olympus have such a unique feel to them as they're basically dual whipswords, which I think is bad ****ing ass, especially as Byleth had the bad luck of Sakurai buying "swordfighter BAD" so he made it so Byleth used other weapons, which ironically made their sword moves more generic due to less focus on the whip aspect. Also, an admittedly petty reason is that it'd make the people who insist that Nintendo relevance is a make or break aspecy either shut up or meekly say "It's ok because of Fortnite".

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Carmen Sandiego x5

Predictions 3% for both

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I'll just quote my previous rating since not much has really changed since then. I know they've both appeared in Fortnite but that's literally one of the biggest games out there and is multiplatform. And the franchise themselves haven't touched Nintendo hardware. People will laugh at me for saying small handheld spinoffs "mattered" for Joker and Cloud's inclusion, but to me, yes they did, and not for the reasons that strawmen will frequently cite. They certainly weren't the main reasons for those characters inclusions but to say they had no impact at all, well, I have a hard time believing. Even then, "impacting" isn't really the word I'd use, it's not even that the games like Persona Q2 and Theathrhythm themselves impacted Joker and Cloud's inclusion by being important, it's more of the games existing at all as a sign that the companies were willing to work together and put the franchises on Nintendo hardware in the past.

Kratos

Chance: 0.1%

Sony's not as friendly to Nintendo as Microsoft. The character nor the franchise has never even come close to touching a Nintendo system nor will it probably ever. Sorry, I don't see this ever happening short of one of the two companies dropping out from consoles entirely like Sega, which in itself is extremely unlikely.

Want: 5%

I don't have much interest in seeing this series represented in Smash tbh. There's just too many other characters I'd rather see.

Master Chief

Chance: 1%

Microsoft is more friendly to Nintendo these days, with Banjo getting in and the Cuphead Mii costume and spirits and all. I still think Banjo was a special case specifically because of his massive connection to Nintendo in the old days, and just because he got in doesn't mean we're suddenly going to see a huge influx of characters from other companies. Now that we have a second Microsoft character added in this FP in the form of Steve (who, again, I see as more of a special exception due to him being, you know, from the best selling game of all time, and a franchise that is famously multiplatform) his chances have gone down even further than before. I still think that a character at least making a single appearance within their own series on a Nintendo consoles (cameo or otherwise) is one of the few solid rules that actually has some merit (outside of the no non video game characters rule). To this day, it hasn't been broken. I do think he's on a tier above Kratos, considering the relationship between the parent companies is friendlier (but it's not perfect of course, it's not like their allowing Banjo's games to be released on Switch or anything), and his cameo on another series's game on Switch, but until he gets an actual Halo game on a Nintendo system, spin off or not, he's still below Joker and Cloud in terms of Nintendo appearances.

Want: 10%

Don't have much interest in seeing him either tbh, for the reasons above and all. There's still too many other characters I'd rather see, even among 3rd Parties.

 

[Pillow]

Master Chief

Chance - 50%
I'm not sure if this is a hot take or not, but I find Master Chief to be the most likely western IP to join Smash through FP2. The only thing is, I have a feeling that we'll probably not get a western IP, so this is pretty much the highest I'm willing to rate any Western IP. Personally, I think a lot of the arguments people often use against his inclusion are kind of weak. I'll address a few of those arguments below:

"Realistic weapons don't belong in smash" - This is probably the weakest of the arguments against the Chief. To begin with, Master Chief has enough options between alien weapons, explosives, and melee combat that he really doesn't need to bring any of the other weapons if they chose to censor him like they did Snake. And even then, I don't think they would. The no guns thing came from Sakurai's justification of Snake's inclusion in Brawl, since then we've had Bayonetta and Joker. Guns are no longer a problem in Smash.

"Microsoft already got their rep through Steve" - The no double dipping same company characters thing never made sense to me. Why would Nintendo choose to limit themselves like this? If anything, Steve's inclusion is a good sign for Master Chief. It shows good relations between the two companies and, realistically Master Chief was never going to make it into Smash before Steve. On top of that, the language Sakurai used during the Steve Direct kind of implied that Nintendo Suits sort of pressured him into making Steve a character, which he initially had doubts about. It might mean nothing, but it could also indicate that Sakurai already planned to use another Microsoft character - the most obvious of which would be Master Chief.

"He's competing with Doomslayer/Tracer/Jonesy" - This is probably the most valid of the points against the Chief. There is lots of competition for potential Smash fighters. The FPS genre definitely lacks representation in a game that is supposed to a celebration of video game history. Doom has the legacy, Tracer and Jonesy have recognition and relevance. The thing is, with the exception of 2 series (Pokemon and Fire Emblem) relevancy has never really mattered in Smash. If it did, we wouldn't have K Rool, Banjo, Megaman, etc. Chief has legacy, less than Doom, but more than any of the other candidates and is more recognizable than anyone - yes even more than Jonesy. I think the Chief would definitely get in before any of the aforementioned characters.

Want - 100%
Honestly speaking, I think that the Doomslayer would fit Smash the best because of his zany high mobility moveset and being the grandfather of the FPS genre. But Halo was a huge part of my childhood. I've not played 4 or 5, but I played more than enough CE when I was a kid. The Chief's badass, the Halo orchestral music score is fantastic, and Halo itself would make such a perfect stage for Smash. And just imagine Kirby with his helmet!


Kratos

Chance - 1%

Not technically impossible, I suppose, but I find Kratos, or any Sony rep really, to be pretty unlikely. Sony is Nintendo's direct competitor, period. I know people will bring up Microsoft here, but really the two companies were never that competitive. Xbox and Nintendo always catered to very different audiences, while the Playstation kind of overlapped with both.

Beyond that, Kratos isn't really the face of Sony like Master Chief is for Xbox or Mario is for Nintendo. He's a recognizable character for sure, but is a few tiers below some other more recognizable faces. Some would argue that Sack Boy is the face of Sony instead, or even Cloud (not a Sony character but a character who definitely represents Playstation), who we already have in Smash.

On top of that, he also faces the small hurdle of the "games are too violence" argument. I think this is pretty much a nonissue, as I addressed above when I rated Master Chief, but his games are very violent. Moreso than Halo, but less than other series that people want like Doom or Mortal Kombat.

Want - 20%
I've never played God of War and have very little attachment to his character. That said, the moveset potential is definitely there. He's got lots of games to pull from, tons of weapons, stuff from Greek Gods (at least I think so?), and he's a badass. At the end of the day though, there's tons of characters I'd want over him. And he doesn't really have much a Smash fanbase to speak of, so it's not like I can be happy for others getting what they want either.

Prediction:
A Second SNK rep - 5%
Concept: Stage without a Fighter - 10%

Noms
X40 From Software Rep

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I don't really care for either series.

Second SNK fighter: 5%
Stages without fighters as DLC: 80%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Kratos
Chance 10 - If we get a Sony rep I think it's probably him. Slight shot for Nathan Drake I think but those feel like the big 2. He also feels like he has a few good shots to show up, as an E3 reveal or a possible game awards reveal would make a ton of sense. I've also moved him up because of the Fortnite appearance which does show that Sony may actually play ball if the stage is big enough or the price is right. And well, Smash is one of the biggest stages possible in video games as we speak. There's still a lot of issues here such as Sony and Nintendo's past, tons of competition(even though I said he's probably the favorite there's also just name after name after name of amazing choices out there from Sony), and its kinda tough to know which Sony characters both Nintendo and themselves might go for since none of their characters are on Nintendo consoles and a ton of them don't show up in crossovers. It feels right to say that Kratos is probably the guy for Sony though.

Want 100 - In short, this would be nothing other than completely amazing. Given the past and present of Sony/Nintendo and Sony now, this feels like something that's still a long ways away. There's 2 more reasons I'd really like this though. The first is because my most wanted is Nathan Drake and this would put him really damn close to being in Smash, possibly like next. The other is that outside of the 2 I mentioned there's so many other great Smash picks and series that exist from Sony. Aloy, Jin Sakai, Last of Us rep, Sackboy, and so, so many others that I'd be here the rest of my life naming them off. It really feels like the final pandora's box that could be opened before we have to start breaking into 4th parties to get there, and let's hope that never happens.


Master Chief
Chance 10 - Steve basically gutted his chances but I think he's still got a very, very small chance. First like Kratos, he's a great pick for an E3 or VGAs spot and we have at least one of those left, maybe 2. Another is that he's like, the video game icon of western gaming. Hard to not like that. Microsoft has also gotten a new character at every E3 since DLC started. But as we've seen so far no 3rd party had gotten multiple characters in one pass and I feel like that might not change. Should pass 3 happen his chances go way up but for now he's on life support.

Want 100 - Yep, another gaming icon. One of the gaming icons on top of that. While it wouldn't be as speculation changing as Kratos getting in it's hard to argue Chief getting in wouldn't be a big deal. While I'm mostly a Sony gamer I've really always wanted to get a Halo game. Been pulling for a Chief collection on the switch for that very reason. This would be yet another holy ****, internet breaking moment from Smash and as a lover of those moments I'd be more than happy to take him.


Predictions
SNK rep number 2 - 2%
Stage without a fighter - 45%

Noms
John Marston x10
Far Cry rep x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Kratos

2% Chance

I say there is a small chance we get a Sony character, but if we get one my money would be on Kratos. Sony has basically embraced God of War as one of their flagship franchises, and he is an iconic choice that would translate well into smash. He really hits that sweet spot of both being iconic enough and having a strong moveset that would be unique. The other thing that really helps Kratos in my eyes is that, well, Fortnite showed that Sony is at least willing to play ball to an extent. That being said, we are talking about Sony here. I personally doubt that we would see a character directly owned by Sony.

30% Want

Honestly, this would be higher if I did not see him as potential competition for Crash. The fact that he is theoretically competing for that "sony mascot" spot made him dip a few percentage points. Even then, my thoughts of Kratos in smash are...mixed. On one hand, my feelings towards GoW are mixed in general. The original games are very, very dumb at least story wise. But at the same time, the boss fights and action are stellar. On the other hand, I love the writing in GoW 2018 but I think the boss fights left some to be desired. Here is hoping that they take a step up in the future. I personally think this idea is cool enough, I think Kratos would be fun to play as. Its just my connection to GoW is not that strong. Honestly he would be close to a 50 if not for that first line.

Master Chief

30% Chance

Now, this hinges on there being a Pass 3. If this was only for a Pass 2, I would give him probably less than Kratos to be honest. Steve is a big death knell for another Microsoft character this pass in my eyes. That being said, if FP3 does happen, Chief shoots up a bit in my eyes. Microsoft and Square both got DLC characters in both passes, which makes me...optimistic for the odds of them getting a character in FP3 if that exists. Now right now, I lean it being a thing before it not being a thing, but I will save that essay for two days. The real kicker is that for me, Microsoft is willing to play ball. He is unquestionably huge, but he is more of a Western character. Regardless. if a pass 3 is confirmed, this is one of the characters I would say keep a strong eye on.

100% Want

Honestly, yeah, I would be down. Halo is fun. Granted, Modern Halo from what little I played is not as fun as classic halo. But Halo 1-3 are a delight. Awesome soundtracks, awesome multiplayer. I am a Sony fan mainly, but this would just be a ton of fun. I just love the idea of the Microsoft character, the definite Microsoft character, being in Smash. I also would be happy to see a FPS character in Smash. While there are a few other pics that I would prefer (Doomguy, Heavy), I would love Chief as well. Would truly be a great crossover moment to see Chief interact with Nintendo's best. Also, Halo music slaps hard. Would be an awesome thing to see.

Neku x 20

Snk 2.22%
Stages 13.13%

 

[Louie G.]

CHIEF

CHANCE - 20%
Call me crazy, but like several other people who have given their two cents already I believe that Master Chief is still hanging in there. I completely understand the mindset behind "we already got a Microsoft character this pass" and by all means I'd be inclined to agree with you but... there's just something itching at me where I can't entirely count Chief out. I pretty much feel that if we do have a company double dip (who isn't Nintendo, obviously) that Microsoft is kinda the most likely one to do it (even more so if you consider Bethesda to be Microsoft now - though negotiations would have went down before that).

I believe that Banjo, Steve and Master Chief provide such a great amount of variety among themselves. Looking at each character individually, they have virtually nothing in common and can all appeal to totally different demographics. But the big elephant in the room is that they all belong to Microsoft and we already got two of them... but how much does that really matter if, by every other metric, they are so completely different?

Compare to Square Enix - many of their most popular characters who we could theoretically double-dip on overlap in genre, aesthetic, demographic... a lot of the same people excited about Sephiroth would be excited about Sora or Crono. But I don't think the overlap is quite as significant when we're discussing the audiences for Banjo-Kazooie (nostalgic 90s kids), Steve (pretty much everyone, but most notably young / casual gamers) and Master Chief - the latter who would not only break the Internet from a near Sonic level of "HOLY ****" but extends beyond the realm of your typical Nintendo fans into teens and adults with Xboxes who may not even have Smash Bros but would certainly be interested in seeing Mario, Pikachu, Sonic and Chief go at it. With this thought process in mind, I feel it'd be unfair to totally count him out simply because he technically came from the same company as Minecraft Steve.

The major obstacle for Chief is that he's not that big a deal in Japan, but (I'm gonna sound like a hypocrite for this)... I don't think it matters all that much this time. Yeah, I think Master Chief is a character who could transcend that barrier of being bigger in the west and not having that much presence over in Japan. It really helps that Microsoft and Nintendo have already collaborated on two characters and the company has been nothing but cooperative all the way through, so the usual concerns I'd have about a western character are kinda void because we're talking about a company that has already transcended these barriers. I was also informed just yesterday that Halo 3 sold pretty damn well in Japan for what you'd expect (45k on day one). Chief also recently appeared on the cover of Famitsu alongside other games on the horizon for this year. At the very least I feel like these audiences are familiar with the guy, albeit a pretty niche audience at the moment.

I also just feel like Master Chief is THAT big a deal, yknow? Take for example Rayman (sorry buddy), who I mentioned a while back as not being very profitable for a Japanese audience. He's a popular character in the west too, but Rayman is still just a pretty moderately successful platforming series - in other words, it's not Halo. It might be a bit ambitious of me to say, but Halo is almost to the west what Dragon Quest is to Japan, and would garner similar LOSING MY MIND reactions from gamers of all kinds, just on the other side of the world this time. Not to mention Halo pretty much revolutionized its genre and set the stage for the last two decades of western video games. I shouldn't have to justify saying that Master Chief would create a stir like no other character before him. Japan would be able to catch on pretty easily, and like I said are probably well familiar with the series' existence as is. You get what I mean. To be fair you could argue this has already happened with Steve, but meh, why not break Twitter twice over?

CHANCE - 90%
Go big or go home. Master Chief is just about the furthest we could possibly go and I want to see it happen. I don't even have much attachment to Halo but man, I think Master Chief is the biggest deal out of anyone left and he'd be mind-blowing for just about everyone. I want to experience the unreal amounts of hype this would entail and I want Chief to face off against Mario sporting bunny ears and a tanooki tail. What's more Ultimate than this? Nothing.

KRATOS

CHANCE - 1%
Lmao alright, I'll keep this one really short. I just don't see us getting a Sony character. Unlike Chief and Xbox, I can't say Kratos is like "the face of Playstation"- nor can I really say anyone is? Like, no doubt God of War is a huge deal and his inclusion would be like pretty damn massive. But we've already got Cloud, we just got Sephiroth and there's a chance we could get Crash Bandicoot... These guys honestly carry "Sony" way better in my eyes. Most importantly though I just can't really see Nintendo having much interest in this character nor do I see Sony as too desperate to play ball. They're better off continuing to go for "Playstation characters" like Joker and Sephiroth rather than a real Sony owned character.

WANT - 50%
Don't mind either way, I'd respect how much of a mind**** his inclusion would be and I could see him being pretty neat, but I've got no attachment to God of War and I'd feel really weird about him getting in over the aforementioned Master Chief. Racist Mario becoming real in Smash would be pretty funny though.

PREDICTIONS:
SNK - 7.65%
Stage - 11%

NOMINATION: BILLY & JIMMY LEE x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Master Chief Finishes The Fight!....in the next pass

Chance: 5%

I am a firm believer that we won't see third party companies double dip in the same pass. Of course it could happen since this is a fan rule. But the difference between this fan rule and most fan rules is that this one actually has evidence to back it up. So far we've had two companies get a character in both passes: Microsoft and Square Enix. We know that Steve has been negotiated for years and, while it isn't confirmed, we can infer that Sephiroth was probably negotiated for around the same time that Hero was negotiated, or at least close to the same time period. And yet, both companies ended up getting their second character in the second pass anyway. While two points of data (two companies) isn't enough to make a pattern, it is interesting that this has been the case for Ultimate's DLC.so far.

Could Master Chief break this rule? Of course. He is Master freakin Chief. Halo was a game changer for the FPS genre, it is one of the more popular Xbox series in Japan, and Master Chief was even featured on the front cover of a recent Famitsu article. Combine that with Halo's gigantic status in the West, and you have a character whose merits might make it tempting for Nintendo to talk to Microsoft for a third time.

But I do need to address another problem which is also a fan rule: A character needs to have at least one game on a Nintendo system. I do hear the arguments against this. Cutie Gwen brought up good points, including the fact that Sakurai only said that it was a courtesy to be on a Nintendo system, not a requirement. But I'm afraid I have to disagree with the counter arguments. People say that Cloud and Joker bent this rule to the point where it doesn't matter, but their series still had at least one game before their inclusion in Smash. As for Chief's appearances in Minecraft and Fortnite, I lean on this not counting. Those are completely different situations than having one of his games be on a Nintendo system. You could argue that it is enough for Chief to qualify, but he is just a skin/character in an otherwise unrelated game. Although you could say that the fact that Microsoft allowed Master Chief to appear on other platforms is a good sign, and I agree with you. But overall I do think this fan rule has held up quite well. Though it's still possible it could get broken with the next reveal, I do think it really hurts a character's chances and when you combine this with what I said in my first paragraph, things are not looking good for the Chief. I do think his best chances will remain in a third pass.

However, I would like to be wrong because......

Want: 100%

Master Chief would be a top tier pick. Imagine the mascot of Xbox in a Nintendo crossover. Imagine Mario vs Master Chief. Imagine his dramatic reveal, shocking millions of people and breaking the internet. It would be the biggest reveal yet. Plus everything from the moveset to the stage and music would be fantastic too.

_____________________________

"I will have my revenge!"

Chance: 0.01%

I'm leaving the door open just a crack because there is nothing that makes this impossible and there might be one timeline where Nintendo would want to do this because it would be the most absolute craziest reveal ever. But realistically I don't see this happening. Sure Sony allowed Kratos in Fortnite in all platforms, but even if you ignored what I said about Master Chief and his appearance in Fortnite, I don't see it helping out a lot. To this day Nintendo and Sony have not collaborated on anything. The closest thing I can think of is that Sony did attend a Smash tournament but I don't think that means much in the grand scheme of things aside from showing that Nintendo and Sony are seemingly on friendly ground. But it's not like with Microsoft where they have been porting games to the Switch and are directly collaborating with Nintendo. Meanwhile, Sony is still in their corner and they don't seem interested in playing with the other big boys.

I will say that Kratos is probably Sony's likeliest character and to be fair there is nothing stopping Nintendo from approaching Sony for a character. But it is hard to imagine Nintendo approaching Sony of all companies. Plus God of War has never appeared on a Nintendo system so that alone really hurts too.

Want: 100%

Everything that I said about Chief also applies here. Kratos would be a sick pick and God of War is one of my top favorite series. I would love to dish out damage with the Blades of Chaos. I would love to hear Rage of Sparta while defeating my enemies. I would love a stage set in Greek mythology like on Mount Olympus. I would love to see the reactions to what would be the most surprising reveal of all time. Nothing would beat this. This would be history made.

Anyway, I love God of War and I would like to see its world and characters be represented in Smash.

Predictions:
Second SNK character - 16%
Stage without fighter - 13%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Master Chief

Chance: 5% - Feeling a bit of a flip-flop on Master Chief. On one hand, Nintendo and Microsoft are very close now, so if Banjo and Steve are in, Master Chief would definitely be the next choice. He technically HAS had a Nintendo cameo as a Minecraft skin. On the other side of things, a lot of Chief's chances hinge on the possibility of a third pass. I'm not doubting multiple reps from the same company as DLC in the same pass at all, so don't play the "dirty fanrule" card on me (though a lot of these "fan rules" are rooted in logic, and just because something CAN happen doesn't mean we should expect it to. A lot of these rules aren't always "make or break" but are pieces of logic in place to show that a scenario is unlikely and that it's either a massive hurdle for a character or simply somesthing we shouldn't expect based on common sense, even with Sakurai's unpredictability. Left-field decisions are never made purely for the sake of "being left field") . But I do have some doubts on Microsoft specifically for one reason. Steve had been negotiated for five years, and this allowed Banjo-Kazooie to sneak in in the process. "Minecraft paved the way" ended up having a double-meaning! However, this makes me doubtful that they managed to sneak in three characters in this one batch, unless Microsoft gave them a fantastic deal price-wise, That's three characters from one batch of negotiations. Now, if we DO get a pass 3, that definitely helps Master Chief. A third pass results in a brand new negotiations period separate from the Banjo-Steve one, which would help Master Chief a ton (and with how well both Microsoft characters were received I can imagine Nintendo may want to go back for more). Debatably, though, this potentially introduces Dragonborn as competition for Chief, depending on when negotiations took place in relative to the acquisition of Bethesda. It's really hard to pinpoint at this point.

Granted, all of Chief's strengths stand! Nintendo definitely sees his monetary value, both from merit and from previous performance of Microsoft characters, while Sakurai would definitely be in on the historical value Chief carries. It really depends on if there's a third pass and if not, whether or not Banjo-Kazooie and Steve managed to "crowd him out" or not. So definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't put any money on it, at least not unless a third pass happens.

Want: 90% - One of the only "never been on a Nintendo system" characters I'd want to see in Smash, Master Chief has a surprising amount of potential. If anything, I think he'd be a much more interesting FPS rep than Doom Slayer would be. Halo has tons of interesting sci-fi weapons and vehicles that I think would make for a cool and varied moveset, in comparison to the mostly realistic guns (sans the BFG) that Doom has. In turn, this also results in needing to tone Chief down WAY less than the Slayer would require, and thus Chief could be portrayed more accurately. Now, I've never played a Halo game myself, but I've been making jokes about it for years with friends who have. It'd honestly be hilarious if we got the infamous Meta Raid/"Husky Raid" as our Halo stage!


Kratos

Chance: 0.1% - Still not feeling confident in a Sony character at this time. Now, the recent Fortnite Kratos costume being multiplatform is a step in the right direction. It shows that Sony is starting to become more lenient with its' exclusives and willing to let them be in crossovers on non-Sony systems (more lenient in that regard than Nintendo itself even). However, this happened after FP2 was negotiated, and even then Sony and Nintendo still aren't on particularly good terms. There's a lot of sour history between them, and things haven't really mended between the two companies, so while things are getting a little better, I don't think it would result in anything close to a Smash inclusion unless Sakurai was somehow able to REALLY push for it. And as we've seen many times, corporate relations are key in third party Smash picks. Also, while he's a major Sony character, he's not the face, unlike Mario or Master Chief for their respective companies. So characters like Nathan Drake and even Sackboy might stand in his way. Also, if Sakurai wants to represent Playstation while still working with a more friendly company, Crash has got his back.

Want: 30% - Never really been a Sony person so I have little experience with the God of War franchise. So while he wouldn't be my first choice, especially with only three slots left, I do think he has a lot to bring to the table. Aside from more Western representation (which is always welcome; yes it's owned by Sony, but the games are produced in the United States), he'd definitely bring more Greek mythology into Smash, something I feel Kid Icarus didn't do a great job with. Kratos has a lot of potential for a moveset and a true axe user is also always welcome. Granted, I would rather see a God of War game on the Switch first, but I'll be realistic in my expectations since that isn't going to happen anytime soon.


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Second SNK Rep - 3.82% - People might overrate this, though Terry's pack was already represented most of SNK sufficiently, plus I can't see Nintendo going for Metal Slug.
DLC Stage without a character - 1.21% - This got a low rating last time so unless the stage is first party I don't expect much confidence.

 

[Bobthealligator]

Kratos:
Sony
He's not getting in
~0%

Master Chief:
Pros:
Microsoft and Nintendo have a very good relationship
It's Master-F***ing-Chief
Cons:
Steve, I don't see us getting two Microsoft characters in one pass
0.01%

 

[fogbadge]

abstain, i cant stand either of them. nominate qbby x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Chance: 50%

Halo is one of the most influential and genre defining game series. It paved ways for modern shooter. Most if not all of shooters nowadays borrow elements from Halo: standard shooter controller layout, limited weapon system, etc. There was term “Halo killer” during the old days like how “Doom clone” was a thing. Master Chief is put on almost every iconic video game character ranking. For that reason alone, Master Chief more than earned spot in the roster.

Chief actually has foot in Nintendo platform via Minecraft and Fortnite. If Cloud’s appearance in spin-off count, then so should these. Those spin-offs weren’t Cloud’s games specifically. There is also rumor of MCC port by few credible leakers, but we will see about that. Vergen’s Minecraft rumor took some time to come true afterall.

While Minecraft paved the way for bigger relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo, their relationship actually dates further back. MS released few games on DS, and their HQ are pretty close in America. Microsoft even brought few producers from Nintendo. That’s why Rare could develop few games for GBA, DS despite being under Microsoft. With release of Cuphead and Ori on Switch along with Banjo and Steve inclusion in Smash, it makes sense that MS would like to dip into Smash again.

Hot take: I think Steve doesn’t impact that much. Hell, Steve increases Chief’s chance. Why? Because when Steve was added, Mojang was added to list of third party companies. Sure, Microsoft owns Minecraft, but in eyes of Nintendo, Mojang is itself. One can argue that Steve was more of Mojang rep than another MS rep. Still, the fact that Microsoft collaborated with Nintendo again proves that their relationship is great despite what Phil Spencer said. Since it’s easier to negotiate with Microsoft, why not go for another one? I mean what’s there to lose? It’s possible that MS offered Chief along with Steve. That could explain why FP2 has one more slot than FP1. What’s financial disadvantage for having two characters from the same third party company in the same pass? Besides hardcore speculators, would casual gamers care that much whether that’s the case or not? Steve only brought Minecraft contents when it came to Microsoft side. So, I don’t think I am hypocritical on this. That’s because Halo has plenty of contents to fill the slot. We thought we wouldn’t get a character from the already represented series, but see where we are now. I think it makes more sense to bring two unique series from the same company than double dipping on the same 3rd party franchise.

Some people bring Japanese market, but frankly, that factor is overrated. Out of 20 million sales, Japan takes 4 million. While it’s still big number… let’s face it. That’s far from majority. Still, there is cult following in Japan. Halo 3 fared pretty well back in day. One time, there was outrage over Master Chief voice actor change in Japan. It made headline that time. Bungie had a Halo 2 match against Japanese team and they got their asses kicked. There are Halo merchandise like statues that are still produced in Japan as well. Halo got reference even in Japanese anime.

Banjo’s peak and Halo’s peak in Japan aren’t world of difference. 400k vs 110k. If you think that sets them so apart, I don’t know what to tell you. I believe it could be higher than 110k there due to MCC Steam. So, I don’t buy Japan favoring Banjo that much. What I am saying is that Japan problem is overblown. At least, Chief has less issue than Reimu, Doom Slayer, Heavy, Rayman, etc when it comes to regional popularity issue.

Despite all the flak Halo 5 got, it still sold around 10 million.

While sales doesn’t always equal popularity, this shows that Halo is far from dead like many other people claim. It’s still juggernaut especially in US where most Smash sales come from. Halo costume regularly pop up in most convention and expo. If Halo was in that bad shape, there wouldn’t have been Halo Outpost where Halo nerds could get in to enjoy Halo lore. Chief’s inclusion would draw Halo fans into Smash. US can more than makes up for Japan if Nintendo is that worried. Halo has totally different audience from Minecraft, so there is little to worry about overlap unlike Sephiroth and Sora. There are characters with worse situation than Master Chief that still got in. Hell, Crash’s Nsane trilogy didn’t do hot in Japan either. Yet, he’s seen as super likely due to previous popularity. And from look of sales in Japan, both franchises aren’t at drastic difference in status there.

Gun argument should stay dead with Bayonetta and Joker. Even UNSC firearms look less realistic than Joker’s gun. Seriously, go outside and show pictures of Joker’s gun and UNSC firearms and ask people which look more realistic. No rating board raises rating solely on existence of realistic firearms. I mean go look around any rating board. There is check list of violence, sex, drug, smoking, drinking, but not firearm.

Speaking of gun, people fear Chief will end up campy zoner. There are plenty of ways to balance him out. Chief has tons of melee options. It shouldn’t be too much trouble for Sakurai to come up with nice moveset. It’s also worth noting that Sakurai played and praised Halo 2 along with Half-Life 2, so he is well acquainted with Halo series at least. Since he plays tons of games, he most likely has played all the Halo games maybe minus spin-offs.



Want: 100%

Halo has been my childhood. I still remember the first I held a Xbox controller during Xbox showcase. It was phenomenal how fluid and natural it felt. Since then, each Halo made me so hyped. I remember playing tons of video games during my high school days. I participated in video game club every Thursday. Other kids brought their consoles, and so did I. Soul Caliber, Dead or Alive, Halo, Smash etc. I remember watching others playing Melee, but I was more into Halo during that time. We spent tons of time on Halo LAN party. I remember being so hyped about halo 2 that I replayed Halo CE over and over again, memorizing almost all quotes. Before Halo 2, we enjoyed LAN party. We still played Halo 2 LAN party, but Xbox Live brought me to new world.

And there came Halo 3. It was monumental hype train. It was so big that even Japan got caught up. I remember watching trailer over and over again to get hyped. Halo 3 trailer still gives me goosebumps. During college time, I remember playing Halo 3 with my roommates. Then, they suggested me to get Wii, so we can play Smash Brawl. So, I bought them all, and we enjoyed that game as well. I remember my friends whining about my Snake. They disliked how he played in Brawl. These two games brought us together. Master Chief joining Smash would remind me of this memory even more. Although we are far away, this announcement will surely connect us somehow.

I believe Chief has the most diverse moveset potential within FPS genre. Just look through how many weapons, equipment, vehicles Halo has. The only one who comes close to this would be Doom Slayer, but I can argue that Chief has more diverse moveset potential. There is tons of assassination animations to choose from for his grab. Spartan ability already fill some of his moveset like Spartan Charge for dash and Ground Pound for aerial down A.

Halo OST is phenomenal to say the least. It won several awards. It’s definitely one of if not most memorable game OST of all time. Music really captures atmosphere of each moment. Halo 3 announcement music would really fit to his inclusion announcement so much. It will bring Halo 3 hype vibe. Imagine the last slot, and tag line shows “Master Chief finished the fight!” You can’t get more perfect than that.


Kratos

Chance: 0%

Yeah, I gave him bit higher chance before. But I take that back. There hasn’t been any sign of good relationship between Sony and Nintendo. Their CEO having rivals’ products is totally different story and pretty much non-factor. Ever since Sony began Playstation due to falling partnership, there hasn’t been anything to prove that they have any relationship at all. Unlike Microsoft, Sony went ahead and created their own Smash game, but it failed miserably. I seriously doubt Sony would lend their character with such ego. I don’t see why Nintendo would bother to negotiate with Sony when there are companies with easier connection.

Want: 90%

Kratos would be a fun character to play overall. I think his new design would be better than old one. Atreus could be added as interesting mechanic like Ice Climbers, but with more spice and twist. Just base duo mechanic from God of War 2018. His stage would be the temple from the newest game. I don’t think God of War isn’t anymore violent than Bayonetta, so he is safe in my book. God of War 2018 is a great game. As a franchise, I think it’s iconic enough to deserve spot in the roster.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10
3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Master Chef
Chance: 0.5%
With Stve getting in as our 2nd Microsoft character, I'm really not feeling Chief has much of a shot anymore. Call it a fan-rule but a third-party company not being granted more than one character per pass seems like a pattern that just makes sense. Furthermore I feel that if Chief was indeed in this pass, we would have him by now. Not saying the future characters won't be exciting but showcasing Master Chief sooner than later would make more sense. Not to mention that budget theory hurts Chief in particular due to how big of a deal he is. If a third fighter pass will happen then I guess Master Chief is in a better position but I'm not assuming it will and Chief still would be far from a guarantee.

Want: 0%
The era of when Halo was at its peak passed me by so I have no attachment nor much interest in the franchise. As usual, he's also a western third-party and not even a character as big as him I would want over my preferred choices. Even when it comes to FPS reps I'd likely sooner take both Freeman and Doomguy over Chief.

This is Sparta
Double zeroes
Oh wow! A Fortnite crossover! This will totally make Kratos a viable choice for Smash now................not! Cooporation between Sony and Nintendo is still barely existant. I guess that Fortnite thing could be a hint towards that changing but as of right now, I'm not yet seeing a trend. In any case, the pass was finalized in 2019 so any signs of friendliness now is in my opinion too little too late. They would just be better of going for Chief instead. I have not played any GoW games but Kratos would be yet another western third-party so that's not doing any favours. In addition, when a character like him gets brought up my inner Nintendo purist awakes. Kratos, before the Fortnite thingy, is a character that had absolutely zero things to do with Nintendo. He isn't just some third-party without Nintendo appearances, he's a full on first-party of Nintendo's biggest competitior. Not to sound like some gatekeeper but having a character like that get on the roster before some very obvious Nintendo first-party omissions would just anoy me. I could say these things about Master Chief as well but at the very least the relation between Nintendo and MS is there.

2nd SNK rep: 3.53%
Stage: 20.82%
Henry Stickmin x15

 

[BowserKing]

Kratos

Chance: 5%. He is owned by PlayStation, a major rival to Nintendo, so his chance of getting in, while one of the highest of the PlayStation characters, is still low to be in Smash Bros. With that said, I feel he does join the fight, his appearance would be a shocking one.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him face off against Snake, Bayonetta, Bowser, Ridley, Simon and Sephiroth in a free for all. I can also see him fight Rathalos right Dracula in a boss battle. Overall, outdated make a decent Smash bro s Rep or even more.

Master Chief

Chance: 5%. Given that Banjo and Kazooie and Steve got in, which itself is impressive, Master Cheif’s inclusion is quite low. With that said, fin he didn’t join the battle, it would be surprising. Also, he could be a Mii Costume.

Want: 70%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him team up with Samus or fight Banjo and Kazooie and Steve in a free for all. Overall, he would be a good Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Second SNK Rep (5%) and Stage (10%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[YoshiandToad]

Kratos:
Chance: 0%
Sony aren't as nice about playing ball with their rivals as Microsoft or Nintendo are, and I just cannot see this happening. If ANYONE was to come from Sony(as in actual Sony characters rather than percieved Sony characters like Crash or Spyro), I will say I think it's between Kratos and Sackboy.

Want: 75%
Last year I obtained a PS4 from a relative who no longer wanted it. My game time is usually 95% Switch to 5% Steam, but now I have this additional option I am considering picking up God of War for it after seeing the first half an hour of the it in a Let's Play.

I've never really had much of an attachment to Kratos before since he's always come off as kind of just a big angry man that really hates the gods, but there's something about watching this woefully angry man try and tackle his hardest challenge of FATHERHOOD that is oddly endearing to me.
Plus he grew a badass beard, and I have to say looks far better for it.

I don't exactly know how I'd feel about him in Smash, considering how bloody and violent his original game is known to be, but he did manage to work in Playstation All Stars so that's something.

I'm learning that my favourite video game characters seem to either be cutesy mascot types(Captain Toad, Yoshi, Meowth, Dixie Kong, Bandana Waddle Dee) or giant muscle men with a perchant for bloody violence(Heavy, Agent 47, Chris Redfield, Kratos, Chrom(to an extent)). I'm not sure why such opposite archetypes appeal to me, but there we go.

Master Chief:
Chance: 15%
Microsoft, unlike Sony, are playing ball with Nintendo and they've already given the go ahead for Banjo and Steve. The only reason I don't think Master Chief is higher is that we just got Steve in Fighters Pass 2, making me doubt a second Microsoft character in the same pass. Technically it's not impossible, but it is a little less likely IMO.

Want: 50%
Unlike Kratos, I actually do have some experience with Chief thanks to my friends who really enjoyed playing Halo back on the Xbox 360. Unfortunately Chief as a character doesn't particularly interest me. He's definitely not an awful pick, but him getting in would be more because of his status as a massive video game icon and the mascot of the Xbox series than because I like Master Chief.

Nominations:
Agent 47 X 5 (Is it 5 nominations per day now or 10?)

 

[SpectreJordan]

Master Chief

Chance: 45%

Master Chief is arguably the most iconic video game character not in Smash yet (Crash & Lara are up there too). His inclusion would further the goal of making Smash Ultimate the greatest crossover in gaming history. It would make waves in the west & be one of Smash’s biggest reveals ever.

As of now, I think Chief’s main hurdle is the fact that we already have a Microsoft character in Fighters Pass 2. There’s a high chance that Nintendo will want to spread the love when it comes to third party companies & work with others. But if there’s one company to double dip on, it’s Microsoft. The combo of Minecraft/Halo is huge & is guaranteed money. There’s also the fact that the Microsoft partnership is really new & might not last to the next smash game. So they might as well go all in with Microsoft now, just in case.

The Xbox brand & Halo aren’t big in Japan. But I feel they’re still decently known, atleast among hardcore Japanese gamers. It’s already been mentioned that Halo 3 sold decently in Japan. There was a Japanese YouTuber who did a video about Doom Slayer in Smash &several commenters mentioned Master Chief. There’s also been a decent amount of Halo merchandise made by Japanese companies, much more than your usual Western gaming IP.

& honestly, I feel that Halo is a big enough deal in the west to justify its inclusion despite Japan. Halo’s influence on western gaming & the FPS genre is a mix between Final Fantasy/Dragon Quest. It’s the series that furthered the FPS genre into the mainstream, much like FF did for RPGs. While, it’s influence on western sci-fi pop culture overall is similar to what Dragon Quest did to fantasy pop culture in Japan. The launches of the Original Halo games is very similar to the infamous stories of Dragon Quest’s launches in Japan too.

Want: 100%

Master Chief is my most wanted character ever. Halo is the series that truly got me into gaming & Halo 3 is my favorite game ever. Playing Brawl at my friend’s house was my first exposure to Smash & much of the Nintendo pantheon. We would spend entire weekends swapping between Halo 3 & Brawl.

The all-star crossover factor of Brawl is why I fell in love with Smash. Mario, Sonic, Link, Pikachu, Snake, Kirby & all of these other cool characters together? Amazing! My friend & I always talked about how cool it’d be if Master Chief could join. So the possibility of those nostalgic weekends becoming reality would be one of the greatest gaming moments for me. It would be a dream come true.

Kratos:

Chance: 1%

Sony doesn’t like to play well with others. Though, it looks like they’re slowly changing their ways. They finally agreed to cross-play between the three consoles. They’ve allowed Kratos in the Switch & Xbox versions of Fortnite. They’re even beginning to port their games to PC, as seen with Horizon.

The process is just beginning, but I do think that one day Sony will be open to joining Smash Bros. But I still think that day is far off.

Kratos is the most likely Sony character to join. He’s essentially their mascot, as well as the star of their third longest running active series. The God of War series recently became the second biggest PlayStation series after Gran Turismo. As mentioned before, the God of War’s impact on the action genre is as big as Devil May Cry’s.

But I do feel the nature of the original God of War games could be an issue for Nintendo. I could see the excessive violence & sex mini-games being a turn off for Nintendo. Dad of War Kratos definitley tones all that down & would fit in very well, but I could see Nintendo being iffy because of the series’s past. Kratos also has competition within Sony from the more family friendly Ratchet and Clank & Nathan Drake.

Want: 99%
Kratos is high up on my list of “Probably Never Evers”, right behind Commander Shepard & Ratchet. He’s a gaming legend that would be amazing to see in Smash. He’d also have an amazing moveset, he could easily be one of the most fun characters in the game.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Red vs. Blue

Chance: 0%
I'm surprised at how many are giving him scores over zero. But for now I'm going to stick to the old speculation tenet that we are not getting two characters from the same company. And I doubt we'll get any DLC when this Pass is done. If we do get a third pass he shoots up so high you have no idea.

Want: 100%
When Halo was good, it was top-notch. Halo 1-3 are incredibly replayable shooters, and I'm a single player guy so I'm just talking about the campaign. They're among the best designed shooters out there, from the mechanics to level design to the art direction, everything works perfectly. My favorite is Reach because you can't beat that story, so freaking tragic. While nowadays it's more of a shadow off its former self, limping forward due to Microsoft's failure to retain the team that made Halo great, its impact hasn't gone away and it's clear that the Chief is still Microsoft's mascot and foremost selling point. Master Chief in Smash would be pretty mindblowing (even if the impact would be somewhat lessened by the two prior Microsoft characters).

The Ghost of Tsushima Sparta

Chance: 5%
Well holy cow, Kratos is on the Switch! That alone puts him on my radar. Putting one of their marquee characters on not just one, but both of its rivals' consoles, that's just not how Sony does stuff. So I have to consider the possibility that they've loosened up, and that they had loosened up enough by late 2019. Sure, Fortnite is a big game; on a different scale, so is Smash. I imagine that not only would licensing for Smash net them more money than for Fortnite, but they'd also get a cut of DLC, which they don't get from Fortnite, and Kratos in Smash would make bigger waves than Kratos in Fortnite. I think they stand to win more than they lose, especially now that Pandora's Box is open and some of that mystique is gone. Mind you, we aren't about to start seeing God of War ports on Switch, I think Sony will have to come dead last for one generation before they even consider that. Still, the PS5 released on November (as did the Xbox Series) and the best-selling console for that month and December as well was the Switch. It's too early to tell of course, but this generation might be a repeat of the seventh. Couldn't hurt for Sony to try to leverage some of the Switch's audience and convert them to their side.

Also, the Fortnite thing has cemented Kratos as Sony's mascot in my mind. When your other contender is Shooty McQuips and you don't put him in the funny shooty game, he wasn't on the radar. So if any Sony character gets in Smash it'll be Kratos.

Want: 100%
Uh, duh, of course Kratos would be awesome in Smash. His games are great, he's a deceptively complex and sympathetic character, and he'd probably wreck the **** out of Mario in his trailer. What's not to like?

Noms: Marina x10 47 x10
DLC stage prediction: 10.42%
SNK II prediction: 3.75%
I'm seeing low scores for these two so I'll predict accordingly, but I'll probably rate these higher than most would expect

 

[Houndstooth]

Kratos:

CHANCE - 1%

Kratos has a lot going against him. Violence being a top concern, for sure, but I believe Sony not willing to deal with other companies and "play ball" is the biggest knock against him. I have actually never played any of his games(though I really want to), but just reading through the comments, it seems that violence and Sony are the hurdles. And I just don't see Sony playing nice with their things(poor Spidey and the Avengers game).

WANT - 50%

Again, I don't know much about the character, but I have always thought that he looked cool. Seeing him guest star in this game would be incredible, and would give other Sony characters a shot at making it in.


Master Chief:

CHANCE - 50%

Microsoft and Nintendo have a good partnership right now. As someone mentioned earlier, it seems like Mojang was more of the representative for Steve than Microsoft. In my opinion, I think that some would even argue Rare was represented moreso than Microsoft with Banjo/Kazooie. Smash Ultimate getting Master Chief in the game would be incredible. The console FPS character that started it all and is still going now. Sure, the games didn't sell in Japan as much, but a lot of Western IPs have this issue. Halo changed the console shooter game, and with Infinite dropping this year, we hopefully will see Chief be advertised even more. Smash is a great place for that.

WANT - 100%

Master Chief is one of my favorite video game characters. I have beat the campaigns multiple times, played with my friends in online matches countless hours, and worked hard to rank up. The Master Chief Collection is a great way to go back and find those feelings again, and even the newer Halos are some of the best feeling shooters to date. Master Chief is my most wanted character in Smash. I was a huge Sonic fan back in Brawl days, but he was a literal impossible at the time. But look what happened. Chief would do the same.

 

[GoodGrief741]

We're down to the last 3 days before the next schedule is locked! This is the time to think strategically, use those extra noms, and try your hardest so that your favorites make the cut.

For those of you who joined use recently, I'll explain. On the last day of our schedule (Day 570: Fighter Pass predictions), the top 7 characters and concepts in the nominations list will be removed from it and become the next week's schedule (in case of a tie for seventh place we'll have a double day).

Spoiler: Nominations post-Waluigi/Isaac pre-Master Chief/Kratos

[Rerate] Monokuma x355
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x330
Qbby x330
Marina Liteyears x310
[Rerate] Neku x309
Concept: Among Us character x295
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x295

300 - 251

Henry Stickmin x285
Mii Costume: Madeline x270
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x265
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x255

250 - 201

Worms x245
Crazy Dave x240
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x222
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x215
John Marston x210

200 - 151

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x182
Mike Haggar x175
Concept: Far Cry rep x164
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x160
Tetra x160
Zagreus x155
Excitebiker x155

150 - 101

Agent 47 x145
Riptor x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x135
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
Stage: Bowser's Castle x117
D.Va x115
Boss: Rayquaza x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Estelle Bright x110
Senator Armstrong x110
Kaede Akamatsu x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108

100 - 51

Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x100
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Echo (Bowser) x80
Trevor Philips x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Billy & Jimmy Lee x65
Echo (Olimar) x61
Ghirahim x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Rallen (Spectrobes) x55

50 - 25

Stage: Tetris x50
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Agumon x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
[Rerate] Louie x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
Firebrand x1

Qbby squares up against Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms, and they fight it out for second place. Marina Liteyears and Neku shake past 300 noms.

Velvet Crowe cuts past 250 noms.

John Marston and Team Fortress 2 rep shoot their way past 200 noms.

Zagreus and Excitebiker ride to 150 noms.

Senator Armstrong wins more than 100 noms.

(Is it 5 nominations per day now or 10?)

It's 5 per character, for a total of 10. Though if you write 10 sentences or more about a character you'll get 10 noms, so technically the ceiling's at 20 noms.

 

[NintenZ]

NintenZ NintenZ You didn't get yesterday's 20 noms, only 15 (understandable since you were writing for 4 characters). How would you want them distributed? (you'd given 10 to Kaede and 10 to the Xenoblade concept)

Ooh this is a tough one...

I've given enough to Kaede lol, I'll give five to her and ten to the Xenoblade concept.

 

[Inue Houji]

Master Chief
Chance: 1%
Banjo, Steve and Master Chief? I feel like there's a limit on the goodwill of Microsoft.
Of course, he's more than qualified, more like overqualified. As of right now however, he seems excessive.
Besides, it seems a waste to have this many moneymakers in a single pass. Delaying it for a future pass/game seems like a much more profitable option.

Want: 40%
I've played Halo 3, Reach and ODST. All are great games, and I had tons of fun playing them. In spite of that, Master Chief in Smash doesn't really excite me. I guess I feel like the aspects that make Halo fun can't really be translated into a fighting game. His inclusion would still makes a ton of sense though, so I'm rating him higher than I would if he didn't.


Tiny Hulk
Chance: 3%
Like Master Chief, he seems like one too many slam dunks in one pass. He does have the advantage of not being a 3rd Microsoft character however. Though on the opposite side he has the disadvantage of being a Sony character.
While I don't put that much stock in the fan "rule" of having to appear on a Nintendo console before making it in Smash, the notion that Fortnite counts as an appearance is ridiculous. It's a skin for a crossplay title. You think Nintendo would censor the skin on their console?

Want: Abstain
I still haven't played any of the GoW games, but I do own the newest one. It makes my PS4 sound like a jet engine however, so I've avoided playing it.
He's a unique character, and the older games look like they have pretty fun combat.
If he was to be added, I would definitely want him to use the original design. Something just irks me about the new one.


Predictions
DLC stages: 1.7%
2nd SNK rep: 1.1%

Nominations
Beat x20

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. i know nothing about either of them.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[Dan Quixote]

Alright, time to get back into the swing of things! And with some of the biggest names in gaming, too.

Is the BOI meme still funny?

CHANCE - 5%
I like to be optimistic, I really do. And I've said time and time again in these rates that third-party fighters feel much more likely, as well as the power of sheer hype. But even with all those little things adding up for Kratos... it's just hard to imagine, y'know? Nintendo has shown to have a great friendship with console competitor Microsoft, which we'll get into later, so it's possible they'd be amicable with Sony, too. But that just hasn't been shown at all if it's true. I sadly have zero reason to believe that Sony would give Nintendo the okay for putting their characters in Smash. It's not impossible, but I think a lot of things would have to go perfectly right. Sad cuz Sackboy has been a dark horse pick for me for the past like ten years.

WANT - Abstain
Normally I'd avoid abstaining because I like hearing myself talk. And while I like to think I'm very knowledgeable about video games, God of War is just something that's slipped under my radar. I have less experience with this series than a lot more obscure stuff believe it or not. I've heard good things, so it's on the bucket list, but as of now I have no clue how Kratos would even play or what weapon's he'd use or what gimmick's he'd have. I can't even fall back on my normal music excuse because I don't know God of War music.

Hello, Halo!

CHANCE - 55%
I cannot believe I'm giving Master Chief a rating this high without feeling like a moron, it's really blowing my mind. Maybe I am a moron, but it seems like it could really happen! There's clues adding up, man, and they make me feel like I'm tying red string around thumbtacks because of how ludicrous the idea of Master Chief in Smash feels. Microsoft has been so buddy-buddy with their competitor Nintendo for a couple years now. Culminating in Banjo & Kazooie and Steve in Smash! Insane, right? Plus despite Halo's M rating, Master Chief can easily fit into Smash because of his futuristic weaponry. Laser swords are totally PG-13, just look at Star Wars. The biggest issue is I have no idea what already having a Microsoft fighter in this FP actually means. Two schools of thought here: On one hand, Microsoft's willingness to work with Nintendo twice on this could make it more likely they'd go for the triple dip, but on the other hand, Nintendo might have reason to spread the love for monetary or marketing reasons. But Halo's such a big thing that's so distinct from Banjo-Kazooie or Minecraft that I'm not sure it'll feel like too much. I say Master Chief is the likeliest now that he'll ever be, and that's awesome.

WANT - 70%
Master Chief's score takes a tiny dip because we already have two Microsoft fighters and I like new things. But c'mon it's Halo! Who'd ever say no to getting to watch Samus Aran and Master Chief duke it out? Not to mention, Halo is probably one of the most nostalgic and iconic series of video games for the past couple generations. Everyone has good memories with one of these games. For me it was Reach, where I'd play those special multiplayer modes every time I went to the house of a friend who owned an Xbox 360. Also the hype of such a big name joining would be enough to shred my pants clean off, and that's always the greatest part of Smash.

Nominations: Tetra x20

Predictions: Second SNK fighter 5%, Stages without fighters as DLC 25%

 

[Sari]

Master Chief

Chance: 4%
Halo is super big in the West and easily one of the biggest characters in gaming not yet in Smash. As the face of Microsoft and a longtime console rival to Nintendo, I feel Master Chief is the one of the only characters that could really break the internet on the same level as Steve (if not greater). Speaking of Steve...

We just got Steve and I don't see Microsoft doubledipping in the same pass. I know it's not a true fanrule but I just feel that it'll be unlikely for us to get two Microsoft characters in one pass (same goes for Square Enix). Halo (and FPS games in general) not being popular in Japan is also another hurdle for Chief. However I have to agree with Louie G in that this may not be too bad for Chief specifically, since Halo is one of the biggest series in the West while it does have a bit more prominence in Japan than say Rayman.

If we actually do get a third Fighters Pass then this will definitely be more likely, but right now I just can't see Chief happening.

Want: 70%
I haven't gotten into the Halo series due to not ever owning an Xbox and not being able to run the MC Collection on my crappy laptop. I usually try to play a character's series before giving them a score, however Master Chief is one of the few exceptions to this. Halo is just super iconic and seeing him fight against Mario is something that a ton of people (including me) have wanted to see since before Brawl. I've also heard really great things about the Halo series (at least all of the Bungie titles) so I think I would greatly enjoy them. Score would be a bit higher however I would probably prefer Conker if we were to get another Microsoft character.

-----

Kratos

Chance: 0.5%
Could Kratos in Fortnite mean that Sony would be willing to add him into Smash? I'll be honest: probably not. This is the same company that deliberately blocked crossplay for both the PS4 versions of Fortnite and Rocket League (in the case of Rocket League, it took Sony nearly 2 years to finally agree to add it). I know that Kratos is technically on Xbox/Switch now because of Fortnite, but that's because Fornite has PS4 crossplay and I doubt Sony even really cared about that when deciding to add him. Sony seems to be taking their baby steps in regards to working with other companies while Microsoft and Nintendo are already on their third round of martinis. Even if Kratos being added shows that Sony is willing to play ball, I think all of this may have come too late. Again, Nintendo just has so many other companies that are definitely much easier to work with. There is also a slight chance that Kratos would have to compete with other Sony characters, most notably Nathan Drake.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played GoW so I won't give a rating. All I'll say is that Nathan Drake is my most wanted Sony rep and I don't think Kratos could ever replace him.

-----

2nd SNK rep chance prediction: 9.40%
Stage without fighter chance prediction: 12.07%

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x10

 

[Louie G.]

Damn this whole time I was under the assumption that ratings only granted me 5 nominations. And I write a lot every time too so I even qualify for the bonus points. Well, the more you know lmao.

If it's no trouble I'd like to change my nomination to BILLY & JIMMY LEE x20.