Super Camelot Bros.
I'll preface this by saying that Assist Trophies don't disconfirm. Very brave, I know. But yeah, unless Sakurai mapped out the next 7 years of everything Smash in 2015, and what he's stated points to him not doing that, then the only reason they should disconfirm is if Nintendo, who's choosing DLC nowadays, felt so beholden to old decisions that they were willing to leave money on the table. Is it possible that they considered a character and decided they were well enough as an AT? Of course. Possibility does not equal certainty. But just being considered means they aren't disconfirmed, even if we go through the entire Pass sans promotions.
With that out of the way, I think we have what are easily the two likeliest promotions now that Spring Man is KO. On one hand we have Waluigi, an iconic and mainstream famous character whose disconfirmation earned such an outcry that it earned reports from news outlets and a statement from the president of Nintendo of America. On the other we have Isaac, a perennial favorite in the Smash fandom who must have performed great in the Ballot.
Let's start with Waluigi. Everyone knows that Waluigi would be a huge deal. He's first party, too, so no licensing involved, it's all profit to the big N. With half the Pass out of the way it makes sense to have first parties now, and Waluigi is both first party and still E3 material. While there might be a problem filling in his pack with music and Spirits, I'm of the belief that the character comes first and the content isn't that important. I mean, we just had Sephiroth get music from a movie and a second stage from the exact same game - I guarantee that if someone had suggested Northern Crater beforehand it would've been dismissed as redundant. A good point against Waluigi however, is that he has no fans where it counts: Sakurai seems to see him as little more than a punchline, and we all know about Nintendo's editorial control concerning the Mario series. It's possible that given the backlash Sakurai changed his mind, or Nintendo saw the dollar signs and said **** it, but I'll admit that he's at a disadvantage right now. The Mario anniversary introduces another element, though I personally can't decide if it makes him an ideal March reveal or one that should have come already.
As for Isaac, well, what he has over Waluigi is that he brings a new series to Smash. There should be absolutely no issue building a worthwhile pack for Golden Sun as it has about as much content in the base game as ARMS. Isaac also makes sense for the later stages of the Pass as a nicher character, from a smaller franchise. I believe we're bound to get another "for the fans" pick like Banjo was, and with the puppet out of the game I think Isaac could very much be our hardcore pick. And, while I think Isaac could coast by with popularity alone, there's also rumblings of a future for Golden Sun.
Now, I think I ought to try and explain the whole trademark situation. I understand that Isaac fans are kind of tired of explaining it over and over again, the reason I'm explaining it is that it's probably going to be very debated and frankly it's the most boring thing to discuss so I hope this puts it to bed. At the same time, it's our jobs as Isaac fans to explain this patiently to others and not get riled up. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar and all that. Skepticism is a natural and healthy outlook when faced with this kind of thing. So, while I might not be the best person to explain this (I'm bound to use copyright and trademark interchangeably), this is my best attempt.
So, yeah, there have been new trademarks for Golden Sun. Not renewals, but new trademarks. From what I understand, trademarks require proof of usage, some kind of evidence that you're actually going to use it and aren't just trademarking willy-nilly. That would mean that they had to be working on something already. Other things of note include: the classification of the trademark, which is for cartridge-based software (basically, it's getting a physical release, so no eShop ports); it's called Golden Sun worldwide, instead of its Japanese name (which might imply a rebranding); it's been presented in territories that saw the original releases (so they could have renewed their old trademarks if it were to just rerelease the old games) and new territories (imo it would be weird to localize a game to new languages if it was just ports of old games for a franchise as niche as this); the trademarks failed and required new applications in several of the new territories, which were submitted and approved (this implies effort from Nintendo, so it's not a throwaway trademark). There has also been a new trademark submitted for Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (which also didn't need one as its original one was renewed in 2018 iirc). Can't recall if it had the same characteristics as the other one though I'm pretty sure it was also in new territories.
There's also Camelot's activity. We know from interviews that development of Aces ended in 2017, with only a small crew staying to work on DLC. It's now 2021 and we have no word on what they've been doing. Camelot has never taken this long to make a game, which leads many to believe that it's probably an ambitious endeavor (which, to be fair, doesn't automatically mean Golden Sun). COVID is also a factor to be considered here; personally I don't think a Mario sports game would have even required development from 2017 from 2020 so that shouldn't have affected it, but I figured I should mention it.
With all that, the prevailing theory is that there will be a Golden Sun remake comprising of the first two games (as they were meant to be released originally), followed by a remake or remaster of Dark Dawn. Of course, none of this makes it exempt from cancellation, as might very well have happened. Though I think the Dark Dawn trademark is from last year, and I don't think it would've been submitted without a certain amount of confidence in the other product hitting the market. At worst, the cancellation is a very recent happening.
Now, do I personally believe all this? Well, it's hard to and it's hard not to. I always thought the Switch was bound to get a good amount of franchise revivals, stuff like F-Zero and Advance Wars, so Golden Sun making a comeback isn't that farfetched a scenario to me. And I find the evidence compelling. But at the same time it feels impossible. It's Golden Sun coming back, you know? It's one of those things that feels like it exists moreso in the minds of fans than of executives. So I guess I do think it makes sense but I'm not getting hyped up about it until it happens.
You'll ask "would they add a character to promote a couple of remakes?" and the answer is absolutely not! Isaac will always get in first and foremost for his Smash support, game or no game. In fact, if the games do come they'll basically be as a result of Isaac's Smash fandom deciding to branch out into supporting GS in general with the letter campaigns and Golden Sundays. But I do think if Nintendo saw such a fanbase for the franchise that they decided to go forward with a revival, it would make a ton of sense to give the Smash fandom its main character and get praised for it while they're at it. Call it a boost moreso than a main reason.
Whew, this ended up being a very long post. I guess I'll give them both 33% chance because Waluigi's the frontrunner while Isaac's playing the spoiler that might just get ahead. And 100% want, what did you expect?
Noms: Marina x10 47 x10
Predictions: Chief 0% Kratos 6.7%
Same reason people may tend to confuse renewals and filing new trademarks as being synonymous at times. It doesn't help when sites tend to lump them together.
