Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Commander_Alph]

Just a head's up, I don't think Laharl has a support thread. You might have to make one before nominating him.

Oh ****, well I'mma just change it.

 

[GolisoPower]

Crash Bandicoot:

Chances: 75%
Crash Bandicoot has been no doubt one of the biggest platforming mascots of the PS1 era, up there with the likes of Mario and Sonic, Nintendo has acknowledged multiple times that Crash himself is a "gaming icon" and Crash has been soaking in the spotlight ever since N. Sane Trilogy released. Activision has brought this guy into a Crash Bandicoot renaissance, and now there's so much going for him.

Want: 90%
Now I've only recently got Crash N. Sane Trilogy, but I've already played through all the levels of Crash 1 (Not 100%'ing that one because screw High Road and Slippery Climb), and I say I absolutely get the appeal of this character. I say let Crash have another shot at battling Mario and Sonic, just like way back when.

Tracer (Overwatch):

Chances: Abstain

Want: Abstain

Nominations: Pyramid Head x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Dont think there's much different for Tracer so I'll drop her rating from last time again

Tracer
Chance 15 - Not impossible I dont think. There's more than a few reasons to include her. Overwatch is popular in some parts of the east, but seemingly not Japan. Not sure what that means exactly but it's the same deal LOL has apparently. Also, Nintendo isn't going to care about Activision/Blizzards comments on China. They just started getting the switch over there. It would be weird if they were really bothered by someone supporting China while also supporting China at the same time. Crash being form the same company also does damage to Tracers chaces here because it feels like he's the golden choice there if we're getting someone from Activision. Dropping her score from 30 to 15 because it feels like overwatch isn't as popular as it was back in February when she was last rated. And no, Nintendo does not care about the China deal. If they did they wouldn't be working as hard as they are right now to expand into there

Want 50 - Dont know much about Overwatch and dont play it. Would be fine with it since Tracer is fairly well known but otherwise I'd be a little down because I'd much rather have Crash. That being said I wouldn't mind too much since Overwatch getting into Smash would feel like a big deal. Overall not a terrible choice.

Crash

Chance 70 - So, even though circumstances such as 2 well known characters getting invites happened since his last rating I'm still raising his chances. Mainly the reason behind that is because I think we're getting a pass 3, but also because I don't think there's any real reasons against him. Iconic? Check. Relevant? Check. Requested? Check. He'd sell like crazy, he'd break twitter again, he'd do all those things people love about Smash reveals. Only real knock against him are a Western dev now that we have evidence that Activision isn't going to necessarily stand in the way. Kinda just comes down to if Nintendo wants to pick him or now. Since I don't really have any insight into that I'm not going to argue if they will or won't since strange things can always happen. But overall, and I really hate people using this term when it comes to Smash, Crash feels like a when and not an if towards being in thega


Want 100 - Gonna go out on a limb and say that Crash might actually be the best pick left out on the table. While there's others with very little going against them, Crash is both more iconic and more requested than they have been so far. On top of that, getting Sony's ex mascot to fight with Mario and Sonic would be massive, and if Nintendo wanted another holy **** moment for Smash DLC this is an obvious pick. There's just really no downside to picking Crash.

Predictions
Sora - 8.47
Layton 4.52

Noms:
Riptor x10
John Marston x10

 

[Inue Houji]

Abstain from both, not feeling it today.

Predictions
Sora: 8.2%
Prof. Layton: 6.1%

Nominations
Beat x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Tracer:
Copied from last time:

Chance: 0%
That AMA really hurts Tracer's chances. IIRC Jeff Kaplan and Geoff Goodman are the ones in charge of Overwatch as a whole, so there's no way they wouldn't know about an Overwatch character getting added to smash. I haven't been too involved with Overwatch recently, so IDK if thats changed.


Want: 80%
I've played Overwatch, and while Tracer wasn't one of my favorite characters, I'd still be excited to see her get in. I'd much rather have a LoL rep was a western e-sports pick, but if I can't have that, Tracer isn't a bad consolation prize. I do have some concerns about her gameplay, as she is a ranged character with a lot of mobility. I think Sakurai would be able to make her not a completely degenerate character, but you never know sometimes. Bayonetta and Cloud were pretty damn strong at the end of Smash 4.


Crash:
Chance: 40%
With the additions of Sephiroth and Steve, it looks like this pass is mostly going for the biggest names they can get. Crash was like the mascot of the playstation in it's early days and he's got a lot of demand, so he wouldn't be out of place.

Want: 50%
I'm not on the Crash hype train atm. I wouldn't be upset to see him join the game, it would be a huge deal. But I'd definitely be less excited than a lot of other people

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[NintenZ]

Alright I think I'm ready now, here we go

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 40%

Crash Bandicoot is certainly in an interesting situation. He was originally a character seen as the defacto mascot of the PlayStation and garnered worldwide popularity. For years he would shift from developer to developer until landing at Activision. While dormant for many years he eventually got a revival in the form of the Crash N Sane Trilogy which ended up being a massive success. That game would eventually make it's way onto Switch from what I know did pretty well there. While I was initially on the more skeptical side about his chances due to the fact that it didn't seem like Nintendo was promoting his franchise a lot and didn't have the amount of interest I thought they would, recent events have made me reconsider. The video from a couple days ago prominently shows Crash and Spyro with other first-party Nintendo characters, and they recently had a free game trial for CTR so it does show they have interest. Nintendo and Activision have also worked before, with Nintendo allowing Bowser and Donkey Kong into one of the Skylanders games. So with all this in mind I could see Crash being included. At the same time I'm just not sure if Nintendo will have gone for him with Activision seeming reluctant to support the Switch as a whole, but time will tell.

Want: 100%

Crash is a gaming icon and is a character that's got a lot of merit for a game like Smash Bros. The third game was actually one of the first ones that I played and I have fond memories of the franchise. While I do think he could be simplistic, I still think he could be a fun character and would love to see how the Smash team would handle the character. It'd also be pretty mind-blowing seeing PlayStation's original mascot in Smash Bros, something that would certainly be a sight to behold.

Tracer

Chance: 25%

Tbh I don't think she gets enough credit and I think there's an overly negative stigma against her and Overwatch content in general. Overwatch, while a recent success, has proven to be a world-renowned phenomenon with many players across the world. It's one of the most popular battle royale games in the world currently and has expanded into comics, animation, toys, and etc. Tracer herself has proven to be a very iconic character and has made several appearances in various media and gotten a lot of merchandise to boot. Nintendo has also shown a lot of interest in Overwatch, yes I know the Hong Kong controversy with Blitzchung happened and Nintendo temporarily suspended their marketing campaign for Overwatch, however that was just that, temporary, they've since then resumed the game's marketing campaign including promoting it's tournaments and even giving it a free trial. Because of that I could see why Nintendo would go for her. Now why is she so low? Simply it's because of the developer's comments with them asking for a character in Smash. If they were already contacted I doubt that they would've said that, which says to me she probably isn't in. I'm expecting a Spirit Event or Mii Costumes like with Cuphead since this feels like a similar situation to that (Even down to the developer's comments) but I still have my eye on her and I view her as a dark horse who could gallop her way in.

Want: 50%

I'm honestly indifferent. I see the merit she has and I think she could be a fun in Smash however I have no strong desires either way. I recently replayed Overwatch and I had a surprising amount of fun with it and I think it's world and characters would fit nicely into Smash Bros, however I'm indifferent to it getting in as a whole. I think some people are way too scared of this inclusion for whatever reason and need to grow a pair though lmfao.

Nominations:
Kaede Akamatsu (10x)
A Xenoblade character (10x)

 

[Ridrool64]

WOAH!

Chance (Crash): (5% + 95% + 0%) = 35%. Crash is somebody who's fallen on hard times to me, but I do think his accolades are still in play and he's still alive for now, at least. He has one last really big chance, after that it's totally over. The thing is, he is really riding on that one big last chance.

Chance: 75%. I still think Crash is very likely, but if he is not the next character, that's when I think his chances plummet (due to the dwindling hype pattern that plagues him). At least, a little, then a lot if he's not in by the time we get CP8. Overall, though, everything I just said about him still stands. He came back from the dead long enough ago that he's proven that the Bandicoot really has staying power. He's got the relevance and fan demand to stay in the conversation in general. And while animations only go so far, he could be the breather episode of the DLC, not really focusing on a major gimmick. And if Sakurai insists, a certain mask provides all that.

Only problem is he's western and there's no clearly established bridge, but I feel like Nintendo and Activision are getting close enough that it wouldn't be too much of a problem. Though, Activision might ask for too much for him to be on the table. But when that actually happened it was on a much lower budget game... still could be a possibility.

Considering Nintendo gave Activision permission to use Donkey Kong and Bowser in Skylanders (these are not nobodies, but very iconic characters as tied to Nintendo's brand as Mario), I think their business relations are more than charitable enough for a Smash character.

Want (Crash): 95%. Want him a bit more now that I think he's more of a never ever, enough to be an underdog but not enough to be hopeless. Also, Crash 4 was pretty good, though I fear/predict his content will just be "Crash 1 stage, despite Crash 1 being trash - all songs/spirits are first three and IAT only".

Want: 90%. If I can't have Arle, but I can have Crash, that's a pretty fair trade. He's my "nostalgia pick", though it's not quite the games I imagine most people wanting him for nostalgia would think of. It's Wrath of Cortex and Tag Team Racing, and to a lesser extent, Twinsanity, CTR, THEN 2 and Warped. I... I love those games. I have to admit it, those are some of my favorites. While I have not made a moveset concept for him personally, I've seen enough that how he'd feel in Smash and what he could bring to it as a whole appeal to me a lot. He better have music from Wrath and Twinsanity though, but based on Banjo that's not gonna happen and I'm sad. It's weird: I never really considered Crash as an actual Smash contender until 2017. In a world where Madou Monogatari doesn't exist, Crash would be my number 1 easy peasy.

Oxford Valley

Chance (Tracer): (10% + 75% + 5%) = 30%... right? Tracer is basically in the same boat as Crash in my eyes, but trades one big chance for having a chance as an off character. She's still most likely to happen as our E3 2021 character if we do get one, which is not as strong of a positive factor as it may appear. However apparently while I was taking a break from Smashboards, there was a Reddit AMA involving people who do Overwatch that discussed Smash? I could believe that Tracer won't be blinking into battle anytime soon due to it. 10%. It's a bit hard for me to understand how likely she really is, though. I feel like a few more years down the line Tracer could be a big character to look out for, but Ultimate is not when I expect her. Outside of Mii Gunner's latest cosplay, of course.

Want (Tracer): 10%. Less because of company competition with Crash and more due to genre competition with Valve's Team Fortress 2. Can't see us getting more than one third party FPS character. I would MUCH MUCH MUCH prefer 6 of the 9 classes to any Overwatch character (Scout, Soldier, Pyro, Demoman, Heavy and Spy), and even the other three over most of them though at that point I'd take Tracer first. Both Crash and TF2 dwarf Tracer when it comes to fan requests, age and to an extent even legacy (Crash is still considered a Sony icon despite not even being owned by Sony, Team Fortress 2's legacy is more online but internet culture and TF2 are completely inseparable, Overwatch doesn't really have either anymore), so I think they should get first dibs. After that, then would I think Tracer can come in. Don't get me

TF2 rep x max. Sora is dead meat thanks to Sephiroth. 7.57% as some will still cling to hope. Layton has no competition to worry about, just Level 5's future. 13.22%.

 

[DaUsername]

Hey, Plumber Boy, Mustache Man
Chance: 80%
Honestly, I really feel like I shouldn't be rating him this high, but the more I think about it, the more he seems likely to me. If course there's the usual things, like massive fan demand, the successful series revival, being an iconic character in general. You know, all that good stuff. One of the big points against him is the fact that he's a western character and western companies are apparently hard to work with, but is that really much of a problem anymore? Not only do we have 2 MS characters, we have the Vault Boy costume from Bethesda, the Ubisoft costumes, the Cuphead content from Studio MDHR, and so on, and Nintendo has worked with Activision before (DK and Bowser in Skylanders), so it's possible they could work together again.
Want: 100%
I've loved the Crash series since I was a kid, though I first started seriously thinking about him being playable in Smash until around 2014 when I got the PS1 games and played them all to completion. But unfortunately at that point, the Crash series was in the middle of being dead, and most people considered him a Sony character, so him being in Smash was nothing more than a dream that would never happen.
Then Cloud in Smash happened.
Then The N. Sane Trilogy happened.
Then Joker happened.
Then CTR:NF happened.
And so on. In just a few years, Crash went from dream character to actually possible to one of the most obvious choices, and I've supported him every step of the way.
If any character deserves to be in Smash, it's him.

Your My Worst Nightmare Has Arrived
Chance: 15%
As much as I hate to admit it, she has a lot going for her as well. Overwatch is a very popular game, and if any OW character is gonna get in, it'll be her. The only reason her chance is so low is because I think Nintendo/Sakurai would go for the more requested character first. We got Banjo before Steve, we got Mega Man before Ryu, it makes sense.
Also there's that AMA the apparently disconfirms her but I'm not optimistic enough to give her a 0 in chance.
Want: 0%
I wanted Crash before Overwatch even existed, so she was doomed from the start. Also I've never been able to get into OW because my internet sucks. Also I don't really like Blizzard that much. Also Reaper is cooler. But really the main thing holding her back in want is Crash. If he makes it, I'll be more accepting of Tracer's possible future inclusion.

Sora prediction: 15%
Layton prediction: 10%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x however many I earned today

 

[Louie G.]

A bit of a passing thought that has made some of these particularly high ratings pretty alarming to me, I personally feel like the space for massive hype picks is getting smaller and smaller, and with that my confidence in characters like Crash or Dante grows slimmer.

It may not be an established pattern or anything, but after FP1 decided to wind down with Terry (who is still amazing) and Byleth (well... anyway) following a pretty overwhelming lineup of Joker, Hero and Banjo... it seems arbitrary, but it makes sense for these passes to be front-loaded. Those characters are what will convince people to buy the pass (Steve, Sephiroth), and then you get more experimental later on when most people already spent their money. I can see us getting one more big guy but I feel like the other two will be smaller characters, or at least not like megaton hype or community darling reveals.

Then again, we started with Min Min so who the hell knows really. It's just something I wanted to mention since it will impact pretty much all of my scores toward characters who fall under that general umbrella.

(Also, we almost ready to move onto the next day?)

 

[AnEasterEgg]

Crash Bandicoot:

Chance: 80%. I feel like the odds have never been better for him. The revival of the series has really brought him back to the forefront, and if Crash 4 gets a switch port it would be a perfect time to add him to Smash. And alongside Mario and Sonic, adding him would complete the trio of OG platformer mascots. For gamers of the PS1 era, that's one of the most hype things imaginable. Of course, there is the possibility of Activision being trouble, but given how they've been pushing Crash back into the spotlight I think they'd be inclined to do all they can to make this happen.

Want: 100%. Crash is my most wanted character for Smash, with only Phoenix Wright coming close to matching him. This just won't be the truly ultimate Smash game to me if he isn't in. Seeing all three icons of the PS1 era would just be a dream come true.

Tracer:

Chance: 20%. I can't deny that it is possible, but I find it unlikely Activision would go with her over Crash. The game is big enough that I can't count the possibility out completely though.

Want: 5%. I'm not a huge fan of Overwatch, and being a fan of both Crash and TF2 I'm naturally biased against her. But even beyond that, I just don't really see her working that well as a Smash fighter.

 

[NintenZ]

A bit of a passing thought that has made some of these particularly high ratings pretty alarming to me, I personally feel like the space for massive hype picks is getting smaller and smaller, and with that my confidence in characters like Crash or Dante grows slimmer.

It may not be an established pattern or anything, but after FP1 decided to wind down with Terry (who is still amazing) and Byleth (well... anyway) following a pretty overwhelming lineup of Joker, Hero and Banjo... it seems arbitrary, but it makes sense for these passes to be front-loaded. Those characters are what will convince people to buy the pass (Steve, Sephiroth), and then you get more experimental later on when most people already spent their money. I can see us getting one more big guy but I feel like the other two will be smaller characters, or at least not like megaton hype or community darling reveals.

Then again, we started with Min Min so who the hell knows really. It's just something I wanted to mention since it will impact pretty much all of my scores toward characters who fall under that general umbrella.

(Also, we almost ready to move onto the next day?)

Tbh I was originally going to give Crash a significantly lower rating since I did agree with you I found his chances pretty overstated by people for the longest time and I kinda felt like he was only seen as a top contender because he had recent game appearances, that and up until very recently Nintendo hadn’t really been marketing his games.

Then someone gave me a convincing argument that they suddenly were starting to promote his games more despite how negligent they were in the past with it which made me reconsider things. Granted I don’t see him as a top contender in my eyes (Which is why he’s at a 40% instead of a 50%) but he has at least enough boxes he’s filled to have me at least consider him as a strong enough possibility.

That being said I still think he’s overestimated as **** and some of the ratings are a tad too high but at the same time I wanted to give the idea a little weight is all.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Today we got Sora and Professor Layton. Can Layton solve the puzzle and enter Smash? Will Sora's friends be his power to do well today? Rate these two in chance and want.

Tomorrow is AT Day, Waluigi and Isaac are up at bat, predict them.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Huh this is probably my most negative day here


Who will I have ice cream with?


Chance: 0% I'm gonna believe the rumours about Sora being attempted multiple times with Disney constantly shutting them down, the source of this is mostly Imran Khan, a very reliable insider who when confident in his sources, tends to be right on the money. Some people may try to refute this because of that "Byleth replaced Monster Huntee" lunacy which the man himself highly doubts but hey, he didn't believe it himself unlike other **** he's had full confidence in. Knowing Disney, it also sounds very in character, this is the same company that literally changed how copyright laws worked so that they'd never lose their stronghold on their crap. This is the same company that currently owns 40% of the film industry. This company had the power to get Sony to give them Spiderman for the MCU with a ludicrously onesided deal for Disney and when that contract expired they demanded even more benefits which from what I can tell, they managed to secure once more. Some people will point out how there's how they said Nomura would have the final say but that mindset is naive as **** as anyone who knows how capitalism works knows that Disney does not give 2 ****s about Nomura, especially with how convinient it was that KH3 got rid of most of the Square stuff for 'not fitting the story'. You know, a franchise where a good what, 60% or so is watching abridged versions of Disney movies that have no importance? KH also has merch which people seem to use as an argument but those people never seem to provide details on who contacted who for those deals to happen, especially as the context for Smash means Nintendo approaching Disney for Sora, meaning Disney's in full control of the deal. Sora also has World of Final Fantasy as a huge knock against him. That game had Sora as a DLC character, so surely Disney would be ok with him in Smash? Nope, Sora was not only unique as he wasn't voiced at all unlike every other character, but his DLC was taken down after a while, meaning he's literally unobtainable in that game because Disney didn't want Square having those distribution rights for too long. Sora's easily the biggest character not already in the game and you'd be a ****ing fool to deny that, but would Nintendo really want a character as DLC that they would have to make unavailable unlike literally every other character? I don't think so, they've always been scummy with FOMO, but Smash has never done anything like that.


Want: 0% I really do not enjoy Kingdom Hearts. I've tried getting into it but it really isn't for me at all, be it the overly extensive plot that while it does eventually make sense, takes waaaay too long to really get anyone invested, which I feel especially sucks as KH prides itself on the story so much that you can't skip it to focus on the gameplay, which people generally like. I've tried some KH1 but it was painfully clunky to me, though to be fair, no KH fans disagree on that from what I've seen and I've also tried 3D, which felt really nice with that motionflow system or whatever it was called but I just had no interest in seeing more of it. The story also feels ****ing laughable, the beginning of this writeup being a reference to perhaps the most utterly absurd line I've seen uttered in fiction up there with dilly-dally shilly-shally, funny enough both involve SE. I hear the latter makes sense in context and I haven't seen Advent Children so who knows, maybe it's not actually stupid but I get what the former's supposed to mean but it's still so laughably awful. I also lose braincells whenever I see some of this franchise's dumb **** out of context like Donald mother****ing Duck, the most beloved children's character in my country, go "Sora, it's Sephiroth" and being perhaps the strongest mage in the entire ****ing history of Square Enix. It reads like comically over the top fanfiction like Tails Gets Trolled and I just can't ****ing take it. Also there's quite a few SE related characters I'd rather see, including some who've been in KH.

Pheonix Wright

Chance: 0% Aight, so, here's the thing. While Layton's been a semi-frequently brought up character since Smash 4, he never seemed to be a popular suggestion, just a name sometomes thrown out if that makes any sense. This may seem surprising because by all means, that should mean my typical "They're not impossible" rating, but Level 5's situation is... Not good to say the least. Their massively popular franchise Yokai Watch sold millions in Japan but it's worldwide appeal just didn't exist and the franchise is desperately trying to stay alive when it's painfully obvious it was a fad and their newest projects just barely seem to get talked about, not to mention that their base in the US has literally shut down a few months ago. People constantly glamourize how Smash revives IPs from the pits of failure but this has never actually happened as Fire Emblem had to pick itself up from the brink of death in between Brawl and Smash 4, Kid Icarus Uprising being a Kid Icarus sequel was decided after Sakurai knew he wanted a third person shooter on the 3ds and surprise surprise, despite high praise and success, the franchise has been dormant for nearly 9 years, Nintendo has shown no desire to use Murasame Castle again despite Takamaru being a popular request in Japan, etc. It also means we need to ask if Nintendo considers Layton himself a big enough deal to actively bring him back, Banjo managed this but Banjo was a massive request for reasons I can never understand, but Layton's fanbase seems incredibly pale in comparison, no people going "WHERE'S LAYTON LEVEL 5 HATES THEIR CLASSICS" whenever a non-Layton IP gets used or anything. This could just be Layton's fanbase being incredibly ****ing chill but I think it's just so small that Nintendo has no reason to consider it big enough to add.

Want: Abstain, never got around to play the games and they've become increasingly rare, and as Level 5's pretty much on it's last legs, the chances of the games getting rereleased so that I can experience them in order are slim to none. Also it gave me Pheonix Wright in Dutch and I'm not sure how to feel about that.

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Shot through the Heart

20% Chance

God, Sora always is one of the most difficult characters for me to rate. Let me start off with the main negatives that he has going for him. Disney is a tough nut to crack. I know some companies like Activision, or companies that are in smash like Square and Konami, might be tough to work with. Disney is a different beast. They are the biggest entertainment company in the world. This is the company that dictated the roster for MvCI to avoid promoting FOX's X Men movies. This is the company that pulled Sora from World of Final Fantasy DLC after a certain point of time. Sora would easily be one of the hardest characters to negotiate for possible. It also does not help that Nintendo is now releasing a theme park in Japan. For those that do not know, theme parks and resorts are a big money maker for Disney, and they take competition seriously. While competition might not be as fierce in terms of theme parks as it was in the Eisner years, I doubt Disney likes a park that could rival Tokyo Disneyland in terms of theming and scope opening up soon. I hate to talk about rumors too much here, but the Irman Khan stuff also seems to me as something to consider. His sources have given him information that even he does not trust at points (byleth hunter) but he is very confident in the Sora stuff. I hate to say it, but Sora's biggest hurdle is Disney themselves.

That being said, Sora has a lot of positives. While I would not say he is the single biggest character not in Smash yet, he certainly is one of the biggest. He is one of the most popular picks in Japan and does well enough in popularity polls around the globe. While KH does not have the strongest connection to Nintendo, it still has quite a few releases of note on the system which helps tether it to Nintendo. It is one of those truly iconic franchises, if at least due to how weird of a concept it is. Kingdom Hearts is basically Disney meets Final Fantasy until the plot becomes Naruto, and needless to say, that has its fans, a lot of them.

Honestly, I could type more, but I am drained. Disney is just the big hurdle here. While Nintendo has worked with giants before like Microsoft, Disney legit makes me concerned. Ironically if he was a Square only character, I would probably rate him higher since if he was, he would be the next choice. But Disney has to be involved, and for me that is a hard nut to crack.

100% want

But god, I would enjoy Sora. While he is not my most wanted by any stretch (Crash, Spyro, Neku, Heavy, Phoenix Wright and Eggman all would be more hype for me personally), I would love to see Sora. KH is one of those franchises that I just enjoy a ton. KH1 is a ton of fun. Once you get past Deep Jungle, the game becomes super fun since the first three worlds tbh kinda suck after the prologue of Destiny Islands and Traverse Town. KH 2 FM is one of my favorite games of all time. One of the best combat engines of all time, movement is great, and the optional bosses are awesome. KH3 Re Mind is great too. Re Mind really helped iron out my nitpicks with the game and made it a ton of fun. Love the hard post game bosses it added. In terms of the other games, BBS and 358/2 are super nostalgic for me. I remember playing them on my DS and PSP while waiting in the car for my mom to take me and my brothers somewhere. I remember the thrill of finally beating Young Xehanort. 358/2 actually has a good story when in the DS cart due to actually giving the characters time to interact and not cutting a ton of great character interactions. Also, 358's manga is super cute and the KH manga in general are a delight.

Is KH stupid at points? Oh undoubtedly. It is weridly written and if you are not a disney fan you won't like much of the games. But god I love them. Especially the music. Imagine the songs chosen. Fate of the Unknown, The Other Promise, Darkness of the Unknown, Dismiss, Forze del Mal, Forze del Oscurria, Rage Awakened, Lord of the Castle, Enter the Darkness, Another Side/Another Story, so many great songs to choose from. I would love KH to be in smash if only for the soundtrack.

Oh yeah, Sora. Tbh, he is far from my favorite KH character (if we got Roxas as an echo I would play as him instead in a heartbeat), but I love KH and would love Sora in smash.

Every puzzle has an answer!

35% Chance

Layton harks back to the ballot hard. Much like Shantae and Rayman, he was a ballot pick that got a lot of steam due to being in the limelight at the time. Unlike the other two, he actually has a sizable fanbase in Japan which helps him a lot. While Layton was never a front runner on the ballot, saying he did poorly would be underselling him. His franchise also has a strong association with Nintendo. Every game in his series has released on a Nintendo platform. I have seen people honestly mistake Layton for a Nintendo character. While that is not indicative of his chances, it does tell you how strongly people associate the Professor Layton series with Smash.

Real quick gonna talk on Yo Kai Watch and just gonna say it is not real strong competition. The games bombed hard in the West. Like, real hard. Like, when I went to Toys R Us to cop some cheap merch when they were closing down I saw tons of Yo Kai Watch stuff still bad. The franchise, while it did well in Japan, just did not hit well with Western gamers. I think Layton, being a character people actually have asked for that has preformed far better in more markets than Yo Kai Watch, would be the choice. While Hero and Terry show that we can get a new character from franchises that do better in one region, this is a much more extreme example tbh.

The real hurdle Layton has is that his series has seen better days. I think the Level 5 closing of their localization branch is basically a non factor. Negotiations would have been done over a year before it closed. Even then, someone else could just publish the games in the west. The real hurdle is the Layton franchise has seen better days. In the span of the past few years since Smash 4, what we got was two spinoffs, ports, and an anime. While this is not the biggest hurdle, it seems that the franchise at least is not in the same strong position it was before Smash 4, hot off the heels of two trilogies. While there are plans for a new game that has some ties to said anime, the fact remains Layton has seen better days.

That being said, a reasonably popular character from a company Nintendo has worked well with seems to me like a solid dark horse. His franchise has seen better days, but its far from dead. When that and competition are the best arguments against him, I think he has a solid chance. A good dark horse candidate.

100% Want

While my tenure with Layton is not as strong as others, I can see value where there is value. I have enjoyed the first Layton trilogy, and eagerly await trying out the second trilogy. The idea of a puzzle fighter, as I said on Arle's day, does interest me greatly. I also think that Layton would be a good choice since tbh, the franchise is just so...comfy. Honestly solving puzzles, relaxing, and drinking a cup of cider were some of my favorite gaming memories of this fall. I really have grown fond of Layton, and I will likely get more fond. I am generous with my want scores, but I think Layton has earned it.

Also props to Layton's fans. They are some of the most wholesome smash fans I have seen, very nice people.

Neku x 10
Haggar x 10

Waluigi 15.15%
Isaac 13.13%

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm gonna believe the rumours about Sora being attempted multiple times with Disney constantly shutting them down, the source of this is mostly Imran Khan, a very reliable insider who when confident in his sources, tends to be right on the money. Some people may try to refute this because of that "Byleth replaced Monster Huntee" lunacy which the man himself highly doubts but hey, he didn't believe it himself unlike other **** he's had full confidence in.

Didn't Imran outright say that was his speculation? That means it's even flimsier than the Monster Hunter comments.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Didn't Imran outright say that was his speculation? That means it's even flimsier than the Monster Hunter comments.

I must haved missed that but unlike those MonHun comments, the Sora stuff sounds realistic enough to me due to the aforementioned Disney deals

 

[fogbadge]

ah two of the best 3rd party choices

may your heart be your guiding key

chances: well this always a difficult one to judge from the outside. everyone seems to agree that disney must be difficult to work with even though i doubt too many of us have first hand experience. and yet disney seems to licence their stuff out all the time to just about any kind of merchandise possible which would surely suggest the opposite? also in regards to cuitegwen's point, i believe it was sony who approached disney about spider man in the mcu. the idea that disney may try to be too controlling is really just pure speculation almost to the same degree of SE being stingy when it came to FF content. the reason why sora was only temporary in WFF is actually unknown as far as i can tell. also i find it hard to believe that in a world where we can get disney art academy we cant have sora in smash. but then sora may be a more complicated character to licence. so im actually gonna abstain on chances because i just dont know anymore. sora has the popularity, he seems like the kind of character nintendo would suggest and all arguments against him seem to be wild speculation. but i cant get over this nagging doubt i have which tells me its not happening.

want: 100% he would be amazing. theres so many things he could do so hed have a fantastic moveset. not to mention all the music he could bring, a whole host of her music? yes please. hed be fun to play as, the stage would be amazing, the music would be incredible. really i dont think theres a down side.

a true gentleman

chances: hmm probably about 30 to 40% its a bit hard to be sure. out of all level-5's franchises layton is probably the most successful and probably the most likely. however level-5 seems to be in a bit of financial trouble atm possibly due to some of their games bombing possibly due to them spending all their money on licences for yo-kai watch wibble wobble. however im not entirely sure that would mean anything for smash. i mean sure it could suggest that they didnt get any money to licence their character in smash but again we dont know how these things work. we dont know if any license money would be enough to get them out of this hole, we dont know when theyd get the money and we dont know what level-5 does with its money, so i dont think we can really use this as a reason against layton when we have next to none of the facts. i can believe nintendo would select layton as a smash candidate they themselves were very keen to push the series on the international market and are aware of the appeal he has. also it may be worth noting, or it may not mean a thing at all, that on nintendo uk's official website to this day layton is one of three 3rd party series to have a section in the nintendo characters hub along with ace attorney and for some reason inazuma eleven. honestly his main problem is just that there are probably other characters they may go for instead but then this is smash and weve been wrong all the time.

want: 100% itd be awesome. i love the layton series and would really like to see the guy in smash. a puzzle themed moveset would be incredible and hed have a neat stage and some great music. layton is by far the best choice for a level-5 character and i say that as someone who loves yo-kai watch equally. sorry jibanyan. but this would be amazing, i like layton therefore id love to have him in smash thats all there is to it.

err ive lost track how many noms is that? 10? qbby x10

 

[BritishGuy54]

Sora:
Chance: 10%
Want: 5%

Layton:
Chance: 5%
Want:0%

 

[Commander_Alph]

Sora:
Chance: 10%
Want: 5%

Layton:
Chance: 5%
Want:0%

Need an explanation on why you rate them that.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Need an explanation on why you rate them that.

Sora:
Always preferred Sephiroth, and I can see Disney being incredibly stingy. Also, I wouldn’t be that hyped for Sora.

Layton:
No reason really. I can’t see his moveset in Smash. He’s really just a character with no opinion on.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain
Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Sora

Spoiler: Kingdom Hearts Music

Professor Layton

Spoiler: Professor Layton Music

-----

Abstaining on both since I'm not too familiar with all the stuff behind their chances.

Waluigi chance prediction: 24.00%
Isaac chance prediction: 20.00%

Expecting a lot of overrates for both, especially Isaac.

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x5

 

[BowserKing]

Sora

Chance: 5%. Sephiroth’s inclusion has reduced Sora’s chances of getting in, but with that said, his chance is very slim. There could be the chance of him being a Mii Costume, but that I still also rare. Plus Sora might have licensing issues, but if he does show up, it will be a shocking moment.

Want: 55%. Sora would be fun to play as, and I can see him and Cloud gang up on Sephiroth in a match. But overall, Sora would make a decent Smash Bros fighter, even more and he has some potential.

Layton

Chance: 15%. He is still likely to appear in the game, and there is not much stuff ruling him out. Of course his chance is not the highest, but I don’t think it can stop him from joining the fight.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as, and he would be an interesting fighter to play as well. Overall, Professor Layton would make a decent Smash Bros fighter, even more.

Prediction: Waluigi (10%) and Issac (10%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Layton. THIS is what I've been meaning to talk about:

Kid Keyblader
Chance: abstain
It's no secret that Sora's in a bit of a weird grey area. He's owned by Disney, a non-videogame company, yet his series started out as a video game. However, despite rumors that Disney rejected him (which I think are bogus, especially since they're only freaking rumors), I think Sora can still make it into Smash even after threw speculation for a curve, be it later in this pass or in a hypothetical Vol. 3. I'm a follower of the YouTuber HMK, and he's done multiple videos on Sora in Smash:

Oh, also; there is the question of whether or not Sora can work without Disney content, since that's the bulk of the series. But have no fear, because KH has plenty of original content that can supply a Disney-less* Challenger Pack.

*When I say "Disney-less", I mean the other Disney characters set in the worlds Sora goes to.

Want: 100%
C'mon, it's no secret that I want Sora. Kingdom Hearts, for all its wackiness (which, in my opinion, makes more sense when you witness it for yourself, but that's just me), is one of my favorite franchises ever. I've wanted him ever since I got the HD remasters on PS4, and I'm not giving up that hope until we know for certain he's not getting in.

Here's a few things I did that could come in a Challenger Pack for Sora.

Waluigi: 10%
Isaac: 10%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Heal me Donald
Chance: 5%
I can't see Sora happening in all honesty. Nintendo has dealt with Disney in the past(Bowser in Wreck it Ralph), but lately they seem to be avoiding them:

• Mario and Luigi were apparently in talks with Disney to appear in Wreck it Ralph 2, but ultimately did not appear at all. Bowser, who did cameo in the first movie is missing, whilst Sega's characters all returned to cameo. The Question Block appears but that's literally it.
• The animated Mario movie is now being handled by Illumination, a rival animation studio to Disney.
• Super Nintendo World is opening up as part of Universal Studios, the owner of Illumination Entertainment. Also a rival company to Disney.

I don't know what happened between Nintendo and Disney, but they don't seem to have the best relationship these days.

I'm not ruling him out completely, as it certainly has a lot of fans, but I think his chances aren't as good as some seem to think. Doesn't help that Kingdom Hearts mainline games appear to be on every console BUT Nintendos, with Nintendo getting the weird spinoffs that end up being key(heh) to the overall plot still.

Want: 0%
I'll be perfectly clear here; I like Kingdom Hearts...1. And only Kingdom Hearts 1. 2 is where they started going off the rails with making the story more convoluted and Chain of Memories was just pretty unfun for me.

But I liked Kingdom Hearts 1 for it's weird mashup of Final Fantasy and...most importantly; Disney. At the time it was fascinating to see such a bizarre crossover and some unique takes on beloved characters like Mickey, Donald and Goofy. The Disney cast are all I'm here for though.

I absolutely cannot see Sora appearing with Donald and Goofy despite them being very important to the overall story, nor can I see him being added with any meaningful Disney references due to the amount I imagine Disney would ask for, and thus I personally do not want Sora.

Bring Donald and Goofy and we'll talk. If that's not possible which I doubt it is, especially given Sakurai's one genuine rule, I'm just not interested.

This reminds me of a puzzle
Chance: 6%
Not super likely in my eyes. He's still very popular but with everything that's happened with the company and indeed the series recently I am not holding out hope.

Honestly, I can see Layton being a Mii costume more than I can a fighter.

Want: 50%
Which is a shame, because I actually like the Layton games quite a bit. I've never really cared about seeing him in Smash though. Layton CAN fight and the coin slot machine gun is a thing of beauty, but it's not what he's most known for and there's many third parties I'd prefer to see make it before him.

I wouldn't be disappointed if he made it, but I also have no strong desire to see him in Smash.

 

[fogbadge]

I can't see Sora happening in all honesty. Nintendo has dealt with Disney in the past(Bowser in Wreck it Ralph), but lately they seem to be avoiding them:

• Mario and Luigi were apparently in talks with Disney to appear in Wreck it Ralph 2, but ultimately did not appear at all. Bowser, who did cameo in the first movie is missing, whilst Sega's characters all returned to cameo. The Question Block appears but that's literally it.
• The animated Mario movie is now being handled by Illumination, a rival animation studio to Disney.
• Super Nintendo World is opening up as part of Universal Studios, the owner of Illumination Entertainment. Also a rival company to Disney.

I don't know what happened between Nintendo and Disney, but they don't seem to have the best relationship these days.

well the thing is they wanted to include the mario bros in a way that meant they got their money's worth so thats why they were left out. they coudnt find a way to use them thatd be worth it. also working with their rival companies is a bit of non starter argument cause, one nintendo is working with their own rivals, two disney has worked with their own rivals and three surely that would have prevented any KH stuff on the switch to begin with?

 

[Lionfranky]

Sora

Chance: 5%

There is a reason why people keep saying Disney is a huge roadblock... for good reason. They are infamous for protection of their copyright. Yeah as others mentioned, Disney taking down Sora dlc is not a good sign. That's not something Nintendo and Sakurai would want to deal with. Shaky and unstable copyright is reason why Sakurai decided to avoid non-video game characters in the first place. And by look of it, relationship between Nintendo and Disney doesn't look good. Sure, there have been cooperation here and there, but there doesn't seem to be anything left. While his global approval is big plus, that's not enough to overcome the mouse.

While it's possible to represent Sora without non-video game contents, I'm still iffy about that especially how vivid Sakurai is. Ah yes, Sakurai took out Mai despite her importance, so he can do the same to Disney characters for sake of his integrity... but I still doubt it.

Want: 70%

While I played most of the mainline games, I am not too thrilled with Sora. Still, it's undeniable that he has tons of moveset potential. It's rather hard to come up with moveset because there are too many to pull from. KH music is one of few game OST that stick to my mind. It would be nice to keep hearing it during match. It would be bummer that he can't bring Donald and Goofy due to one rule that Sakurai set. Still, I don't want pandora's box to open just to get them in. It would still be nice to have Sora without breaking that rule. But, overall, I would feel something is greatly missing.

Layton: 10%

While he has chance, it doesn't look good. Level 5 is in big trouble financially. If someone like Phoenix Wright has trouble of getting in, I don't think Layton has better chance. Maybe, he's possible because licensing fee wouldn't be expensive due to his series being small all that, but I doubt that's enough to overcome other way more attractive candidates. He's in better position than like of Shantae, but that's not saying much.

Want: Abstain

I've never played his series. But, I watched playthrough of Phoenix Wright vs Layton. It was fun game that incorporated elements from both series. From there, I witnessed his personality and like him. Still, I can't give rating here because I've not gotten into his series deeply enough. I would be alright with his inclusion overall.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10
3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain

nom: peppino x5

 

[DaUsername]

Dropping an abstain on both of these guys, I have no idea what to rate them.
Waluigi prediction: 15%
Isaac prediction: 5%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Louie G.]

SORA

CHANCE - 2%
Sorry, guess I'm feeling strict today.

There is a very very small chance that we get Sora after getting Sephiroth. Realistically, with only three characters left, I think his chances are extremely grim. I know that Sora is technically owned by Disney or whatever (which is a whoooole other can of worms that I'm not even going to get into), but with the overlap in appeal and even characters between Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts, I feel he just strides the line far too close.

As I said yesterday as well, I find it unlikely that we'll be getting several other gangbuster characters moving forward as the pass eventually slows to an end and I feel that nearly every other big fan demanded character has a lot more going for them than Sora who inarguably shares a lot in common thematically with Sephiroth. I'd be pretty surprised to see them fall back on Sora after all the Nomura love we saw poured out with Sephiroth.

WANT: 5%
And I would be very disappointed if we got him now. I don't like Sora at all, but I kinda prepared myself for it right before TGA and was coming around to the idea. I was pleasantly surprised when our SE character was instead Sephiroth, who I think is way cooler.

Not a fan of Kingdom Hearts, I think it's extremely corny and not in a charming way. I don't like Sora, I think his design is silly looking and as a character he does not interest me. I respect that he has pretty great moveset potential and that clearly a lot of people see the value in his inclusion, and I can understand that it would be a massive deal, but given the option between Sora and nearly anyone else I would probably choose the other character.

The 5% just accounts for how he'd probably at least be a fun character, but he's one of the few characters who I have strong enough opinions against to actively not want in the game at all.

PROFESSOR LAYTON

CHANCE - 5%
I feel bad for Level 5. Back in Smash 4, Level 5 was one of THE third parties to keep in mind. Nintendo was always pushing their games pretty enthusiastically, Layton was another one of those characters who many deemed an "honorary Nintendo character" on account of being somewhat synonymous with the DS and Yokai Watch was being treated as a very big deal. They were commonly touted as one of Nintendo's closest third party partners.

Six years later, the same can't be said. Level 5 has reportedly shut down most or all of their North American departments. Yokai Watch 4 has seen a notable decline in sales relative to the rest of the series and is showing no signs of coming to the west. It's a shame to say, but it genuinely feels like the Level 5 characters just totally missed their chance. I can't really see either of the major contenders (Layton, Jibanyan) being chosen nowadays, and even if we did get one I feel that Jibanyan ultimately has the edge over the good professor. Things aren't looking great for him.

WANT - 70%
Never played a Layton game, but it seems like something I'd enjoy a lot. Layton is a likeable character, he's got a cool design, I have no real grasp on how he would play but I'm certain something fun could be done with him as an unconventional and calculated fighter with a knack for problem solving. In any case I find him an easy character to root for, even if I don't have much personal attachment toward him.

PREDICTIONS:
Waluigi - 10.5% (Probably a lot of 0% mixed in with some ratings of like 50%)
Isaac - 14.5% (If last time is anything to go by, there are a surprising number of Isaac supporters who believe he is still happening and will flood the thread)

NOMINATIONS: BILLY & JIMMY LEE x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sora

Chance: 5% - Sora's always a tough call, and things have simply gotten tougher. He does still have his merits, always placing highly on fan polls, and shows tons of popularity in both the East and West. His series is extremely highly regarded, frequently gets new entries, and despite not getting any main-series games it has gotten plenty of spinoffs! In fact we just got one this year, so that definitely helps in regards to recency.

However, Disney is still a massive roadblock for Sora. Never mind the trouble and baggage working with the House of Mouse brings by default, their relationship with Nintendo is difficult to predict. On one hand, we've got some corporate relations, definitely a key factor in characters getting into Smash. Melody of Memory, along with other games like Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (a Switch exclusive!) and Bowser's appearance in Wreck it Ralph. On the other hand, the Mario bros failed to make an appearance in Ralph 2 (though this was due to Nintendo wanting to get their money's worth and the two couldn't reach an agreement - an excellent point that fogbadge brought up), along with Nintendo's recent partnerships with Illumination and Universal for the Mario Movie and Super Nintendo World. Both owned by Comcast, an entertainment giant and a major rival to Disney. And of course, this puts it at odds with Tokyo Disneyland, and the parks are a massive source of revenue for Disney. Granted, competitor relations sometimes happen, and Disney isn't as obsessive with it as it was during the Eisner era, but I can't imagine it helps much. Disney in general is super protective of copyright, and even if Sakurai attempts it we don't know what kind of price or conditions Disney may demand for Sora's inclusion. Let's not forget the timed DLC Disney's given for Sora before. Nintendo may consider it too much of a risk.

There's also Sora's status as a de facto Square Enix character, and, well, we just got Sephiroth. Kingdom Hearts is essentially Final Fantasy meets Disney, so Nintendo might not go for that kind of overlap in the pass.

Overall, Sora's got so many merits and I wouldn't count him out yet, but Disney's so unpredictable that it's difficult to feel confident in him. Plus Sephiroth definitely doesn't do him any favors.

Want: 80% - I've never touched a Kingdom Hearts game but I have to say that Sora would be both a deserving and hilarious addition to the game. I feel he has enough to help him stand out from the typical Swordfighter and no doubt would come with a very whimsical and colorful stage as well! Now, onw thing that really affects my want rating, though, is the presence of Disney content. I know Sora could come with purely Kingdom Hearts original content but I feel that it would be the least interesting way of representing him and would essentially be a second Final Fantasy challenger pack. The Disney content is such a huge part of the franchise's identity and what really makes it stand out! We should at least get Donald and Goofy, they're with Sora in just about every game and their game incarnations have become iconic in their own right, and I think they'd be a very novel inclusion alongside Sora!


Professor Layton

Chance: 10% - No doubt he's a potential dark horse, being at the height of his popularity during the ballot days and pretty popular with smash fans, doing relatively well on polls despite the reign of Yo-Kai Watch! The company relations are in place, Nintendo's historically had a strong relationship with Level-5, though that seems to be waning a bit with time. He's in the "We make sense and the foundation is there but aren't in the game for some reason" club with Jibanyan and Ryu Hayabusa. And this is where my confidence in him kinda wanes (even though I still think he's underrated), I honestly think that if Nintendo really wanted him that he'd be in by now. I'm surprised Nintendo hasn't given Level-5 any content, though at the moment Level-5 isn't doing as hot as they used to. Yes, the localization studio shutdown was after the pass was decided, but it's still indicative of the issues brewing within Level-5 which no doubt would've been building up for quite awhile, and Nintendo could've noticed this. Furthermore, Layton's franchise itself isn't in the best position right now. The last game was four years ago, didn't star Layton himself, and there's currently no future prospects for the franchise. Which is a shame because a puzzle character would be a cool addition. Overall, definitely a dark horse, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't make it into Smash.

Want: 50% - Definitely neutral to Layton. he's got some interesting weapons at his disposal and mixing that with puzzles would no doubt make for a very unique moveset! Though I don't have any personal experience with Layton myself, my friend and I are planning on playing his crossover with Phoenix Wright so we'll see if that leads to more interest in his franchise! Speaking of which, while I have no competition in Level-5, I do have a similar character who'd overlap with Layton and likely wouldn't be included alongside him. A series I recently got into and just mentioned, our dear Ace Attorney Phoenix Wright himself. I can imagine Nintendo would only choose one and if I had the choice, I'd personally pick Phoenix over Layton, but if Layton got chosen I wouldn't be disappointed. He has the unique properties, fan demand, and is a Nintendo mainstay like Phoenix, so he definitely earns a lot of points in my book! So, while he's necessarily on my want list, he'd be a fantastic choice that'd bring a lot of charm, and I'd have no issue with him making his Smash debut!


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Waluigi - 10.83% - Definitely some holding onto hope, since he could end up being the obligatory end-of-the-DLC first party.
Isaac - 23.27% - Expecting his fans to jump in as usual and give him extremely high scores despite all of his hurdles.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Oh man this is hard, I want both so ****ing bad.

Sora
Chance: 50% i think there is a chance that he could happen, there is a chance that it may not happen
Want: 100% I really really really want Sora

Layton
Chance: 40% It isnt quite 50% because Level 5 was having problems last year but it seems they got a bit better at the end of the last year. Im still pessimistic about Layton but I have a bit of optimism
Want: 100% I really really really want Layton

 

[GoodGrief741]

Heart of Darkness

Chance: 50%
A brief introduction of Sora: Sora is the main character of Kingdom Hearts, an action RPG franchise with over 30 million copies sold between 11 games, from 2002's original all the way to 2020's Melody of Memory. As a result of the games' success, Sora has become an icon of gaming, with other characters and elements such as the Keyblade following suit. Due to the nature of Kingdom Hearts' narrative, every game is equally important, not just those with numbers, and so Nintendo has gotten several key parts of the storyline exclusively on their handhelds - before ports anyways. That strong presence on Nintendo, alongside Kingdom Hearts' cartoony artsyle and crossover nature, has led to Sora being one of the most demanded characters to join Smash since third parties became a thing. He's still hugely popular, particularly in Japan.

After Sephiroth took out all of Square Enix, one pone survivor still hangs on to hope on a technicality. Kingdom Hearts, and therefore Sora, feels very much like Square Enix, from being one of the defining RPGs of its generation, to its excessive Nomurian belt-and-zipper designs, to its convoluted plot. But it's actually owned by Disney (this is no grey area, Disney outright owns Kingdom Hearts - copyright notices are your friend). The community has decided that for redundancy's sake, it doesn't make sense to have two characters from the same company, but that means that Sora is still in play.

It's true that Sora and Sephiroth have a somewhat similar audience. But I don't think it's close enough to dismiss Sora. There's a lot of fans of Kingdom Hearts who got into it because of the Disney stuff and might not play other RPGs. Plus Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts are very different games in terms of genre, tone, narrative, and scope. And, frankly, Sora in Smash is such a big deal that if they can get him I doubt they'll care about overlapping audiences.

I do think the point about the hypest characters probably being behind us has a lot of merit. ****, I used that point myself yesterday. The reason I'm still confident in Sora's chances (at least, as much confidence as you can have on a coin flip), is that there's three exceptions I can see to the "Smash always ends in disappointment" precedent: Kratos, Master Chief and Sora. Basically, the "mic drop" exception: gets that are so big that you can announce them last and still get tons of press and sales from them.

As for "Disney is hard to work with", I'll just say that I'm waiting for proof. Imran Khan saying that he thinks talks fell through isn't proof. Mario not showing up in Wreck-It Ralph (because the director felt like he needed to be a big deal and couldn't find the place) and its sequel (which isn't even about videogames) isn't proof. Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite isn't proof. Nintendo working with Universal on movies and a theme park definitely isn't proof. This sounds like a repeat of "Square Enix stingy" and not much else.

Want: 100%

Professor Layton and the Brothers of Smashing

Chance: 50%
Nothing's changed for Layton. He's still iconic, still requested, still Nintendo-y. No new games of the horizon that we know of, there might be ports though, I don't remember. The anime's still ongoing I think?

Look, it's clear that we're rerating Layton because of the recent news that Level-5 would be closing their offices in America. After a pretty scary period where we wondered if that meant no more localizations, it turned out that they were already outsourcing most of those anyway. And then it turned out that while Level-5 isn't doing great, they aren't close to bankruptcy or anything like that. So, yeah, that turned out to be kinda pointless. Not to mention that even if they were, the Pass was decided in 2019. Level-5 wasn't showing any financial woes back then, and obviously Nintendo isn't going to ask for a company's financials before agreeing to have them in Smash. Really all it means is that, if Level-5 was cash strapped, they might have asked for more money, or if they were desperate for any money and exposure, they might have asked for less.

That aside, Layton arguably makes more and more sense the longer we go. He's a big character for the fandom and, ****, 18 million copies is no slouch. But he'd be less of a Pass-seller than Sephiroth, that's for sure. Probably cheaper, too, independently of whatever's going on with Level-5. Plus he'd introduce a new Japanese company to the mix and it seems like they like doing that. So they have plenty of reasons to add him, but nothing's outright pointing to him being in yet, so it remains to be seen.

Want: 100%

Noms: Marina x10 47 x10
Waluigi prediction: 23.69%
Isaac prediction: 31.87%

 

[Jomosensual]

Sora
Chance 5 - Feeling way, way worse on Sora now. Wasn't able to find my last rating on him, but with 2 big name fighters out of the way now and 1 coming from SE, I feel like his chances are falling back a bit. That being said, we still do have E3 and what could end up being a game awards reveal so never say never, but Steve and Sephiroth really do feel like our massive picks for the pass. There's probably just 1 more of those left. Funny enough, he's still alive in my eyes because of Disney. While the likes of 2B, Lara, Geno, etc all feel done for now that we have another Square rep, it seems pretty unclear if Sora needs SE or not to get into Smash. While I feel like the answer has to be some variation of yes, Disney seemingly being the main decider here puts him on life support at bare minimum.

Want 100 - I'd easily take Sora in Smash. He's a super iconic video game character from one of the most popular series in gaming. It would take a whole lot for me to decide that he's not worth the addition.


Layton
Chance 25 - If we get a level 5 rep it's gonna be him. Level 5 is pretty close with Nintendo and I can't see Jibby over him for a number of reasons, mainly because his series has done better and Layton is more iconic. He's fairly well known and his series is pretty successful. Biggest hit by far is that Phoenix Wright occupies the same sort of role as he would and I think a Capcom rep is much more likely. To clarify some new info that came out about Level 5, no I don't think their downsizing matters. Even with the America offices closing it appears they'll still have localization. Even if they didn't the pass was decided a full year before that was announced. I don't think closing the USA offices were in the works for that long.

Want 30 - Would be a 50 normally because I'm pretty neutral on him. His big hit for me is that both he and Phoenix Wright likely won't get in the same pass. Phoenix is my reasonable most wanted so I can't root for Layton without losing him. Otherwise I'd be all for it. He "deserves" a spot in a lot of cases of the word. Would really like to see how he'd work in Smash, but just after Phoenix gets in, you know?


Predictions:
Isaac - 23.85%
Waluigi - 32%

NomsThink I have 5 extra? If not just ignore the one I'm giving 5 to)
John Marston x 10
Riptor x 10
Bioshock Protagonist x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Crash/Tracer pre-Sora/Professor Layton

[Rerate] Monokuma x335
Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x315
Qbby x310
Marina Liteyears x290
[Rerate] Neku x284
Concept: Among Us character x275
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x270

300 - 251

Henry Stickmin x255

250 - 201

Mii Costume: Madeline x250
Worms x245
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x245
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x240
Crazy Dave x230
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x217

200 - 151

John Marston x190
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x190
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x172
Concept: Far Cry rep x164
Mike Haggar x160
Tetra x155

150 - 101

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Zagreus x135
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x135
Excitebiker x135
Agent 47 x125
Riptor x120
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Stage: Bowser's Castle x112
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Boss: Rayquaza x110
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x110
Estelle Bright x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x106
Kaede Akamatsu x105

100 - 51

Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x100
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
Senator Armstrong x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Echo (Bowser) x75
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x65
Trevor Philips x65
Ghirahim x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Rallen (Spectrobes) x55
Billy & Jimmy Lee x55

50 - 25

Stage: Tetris x50
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Agumon x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Louie x10
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
Firebrand x1

Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms passes Qbby, and takes second place. This is quite the surprise, I thought the top 2 would make it through the schedule unscathed. Will Monokuma's reign continue? Is any of the top seven safe?

Among Us character vents past Beat, and appears mysterious in sixth place.

Henry Stickmin hops over 250 noms.

Mike Haggar suplexes 150 noms.

Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, Estelle Bright, and Kaede Akamatsu make it to over 100 noms.

Billy & Jimmy Lee fight their way past 50 noms.

Your new nominees for today are Pyramid Head, with 5 noms, and Concept: Danganronpa protagonist, with 10.

NomsThink I have 5 extra?

Yep, you do.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on either.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Sora won't get healed because Donald just left today
Chance: 1%
I really think Sephiroth doesn't do anything good for Sora's chances. It's not about another Square character in general taking up Sora's spot since he's owned by a different company. Rather, it's about overlap and variety. Many Kingdom Hearts fans are likely to also be Final Fantasy fans and if Nintendo wants to cast a wide net with the Smash DLC, having a FF character and a character from a FF/Disney crossover does not make a lot of sense. Even before Sephiroth tho, I saw the odds stacked against Sora's favor. If the FP vol 2 characters, or most of them, were deemed as "extras" than I do not imagine them being big deal characters owned by big corporations, such as Sora and Chief. If the budget and manpower was really reduced then I frankly don't think Nintendo would even try approaching Disney.

Want: Abstaining

Leader of the tophat clan
Chance: 20%
Level 5 is one of the few major Japanese dev with strong Nintendo ties that does not have representation yet and Professor Layton is pretty much their biggest series. He'd also appeal to the Smash demographic way more than Jibanyan could. Moveset might not be so obvious however and I wouldn't call the series mainstream. To my knowledge, another game isn't happening soon. Still, I'd say Layton has a fair shot.

Want: 10%
I do have the slight interest to try this franchise out. Not something I'm actively hunting for but will get it if I were to come across it, the first game atleast.
While the connection isn't yet there, I would accept Layton in Smash.

Isaac: 14.87%
Waluigi: 22.72%
Henry Stickmin x10

 

[Curious Villager]

Abstaining from Sora

Layton

Chance: 40%
Layton's a popular and iconic character from the Nintendo DS era of games, being the second best selling third party franchise there behind Dragon Quest, its also still Level-5's highest selling game franchise at 17 Million according to a very recent interview just before the new year, with Yo-Kai Watch tailing right behind at 16 Million. The series is currently also receiving support with HD remasters of the original DS games on IOS/Android devices so its still a fairly active franchise too.

With three characters likely remaining, things are getting quite tight admittedly as far as potentially seeing a character like Layton making it in, but at the other hand, we've likely already passed the peak as far as large scale characters go, with maybe at least one big surprise left for E3 (or planned for it), leaving probably at least two characters on a similar vein as Terry.

Level-5 also still not having any content to name its own may or may not be a good sign either, the whole thing with the US branch didn't occur until after the DLC was decided so I doubt that would have affected them as much as far as this fighters pass is concerned, albeit probably not a good potential outlook for future games unless they manage to bounce back from that or find themselves a publisher again.

Want:100%
Seeing Layton finally join the roster would be a dream come true.

A playable character would be ideal, but even a spirit event or Mii costume would be cool to see at this current point.


Prediction
Waluigi 10%
Isaac 10%

Nomination
LoL rep 5x

 

[Bobthealligator]

Sora:
Pros:
Highly requested character, even during the Smash Ballot
He has a tonne of moveset potential, possibly too much.
A reasonably recognisable character.
Cons:
Sephiroth. Despite being owned by Disney, his identity is probably closer to Square Enix, as such I really don't see us getting both in the same pass. It also doesn't really help that they both use the same artstyle and Kingdom Hearts was initially concieved as a Final Fantasy/Disney crossover, while it has long diverged from this identity, I still think it is enough to utterly discount him from this pass, though I think he'd have a decent chance if we get another pass.
Disney are also a huge company, so Sora would have to be very expensive.
Percentage: Basically 0%

Layton:
Pros:
The franchise is very closely connected to Nintendo
The character is very recognisable
Cons:
Layton as a franchise is probably dead, at least overseas. Level 5 shut down their overseas divisions, and also the Layton franchise has technically ended (though it was revived as Lady Layton)
In terms of forming a moveset, that's a bit tricky. While definately possible I could see Nintendo decide to go for a character who is a tad more intuitive from a design perspective.
Percentage: 0.2%

Since I haven't given percentages before, I should probably explain why they're so low. I think everyone else's percentages are way too high, from the number of possible characters who potentially could get in and the limited number of slots I don't think I could ever reasonably predict a character at more that 20% and the highest, in my opinion, at the moment are Rex and Monster Hunter at 10%.
If you want to convert my ratings to the same metric the rest of you use, just times them by 5.

 

[Pillow]

Hi guys, long time lurker first time poster.

Sora
Chance: 10%
I'm of the opinion that a character from the same company appearing in the dlc absolutely doesn't preclude someone from joining. In this case, I feel Sephiroth's arrival doesn't really hurt Sora's chances. If anything, it's a good sign that points towards Nintendo being able to work with Square. The exception to this would be Terry, because of all the SNK content, rather than Fatal Fury or even just KOF content he brought with him. Sephiroth brought Final Fantasy stuff with him, and that's it. That said, and it seems I'm beating dead horse here, it just feels like Sora isn't getting into Smash because Disney. It doesn't help that Kingdom Hearts content is kind of a tangled IP mess, either. Getting Sora without getting Donald/Goofy in some way would feel wrong.

Want: 50%
I honestly really dislike Sora as a character. I find his design to be cheesy, his voice drives me nuts, and I don't think I'd enjoy his playstyle that much if he were to be added to Smash. That said, the moveset potential is definitely there. He's also definitely deserving of being here, with tons of fans worldwide...though the reason my want bumped all the way up to 50% is just based on the music alone. Having simple&clean / sanctuary in Smash would just be amazing. I took a few points off the want, because he would technically be competing with 2B, a character I like a lot more, seems like she would be more fun to play, has a sleeker visual design and who also brings excellent music to the table (Technically my most wanted Square rep would be Neku, but I'd rate his chance of getting in to be a fat 0).


Professor Layton
Chance: 1%
I honestly don't see it. He has Nintendo History, to be sure, but his series just doesn't have the clout that other 3rd party representatives in Smash would have. It's all heavy hitters from industry titan franchises, Banjo Kazooie, and technically Bayonetta (but she's like basically owned by Nintendo). He's definitely got some fan support, but not nearly to the same degree as Banjo did, or currently someone like Phoenix Wright has. He also faces competition from other Level 5 franchises, but really I feel like he's top of the pack from this company. An argument could certainly be made for Jibanyan, but Youkai Watch's popularity outside of Japan is absolutely wretched.

Want: 70%
He's a cool character. His design is great, and he'd have an interesting moveset if Sakurai can properly integrate puzzle game mechanics in (and it's Sakurai, so of course he will). Taking some points off for sort of competing with Phoenix Wright, one of my most wanted characters, as a more niche 3rd party pick with specific Nintendo association.