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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,113
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Assist trophies

Chance: 50%
It's either Springman, Max Brass, Ribbon Girl or Min Min. And I don't give each of those equal odds.

Springman is the defacto face of the franchise with Ribbon Girl as the second fiddle. Whilst Max Brass is the most important story wise, he's also an antagonist which is unheard of for the first character representing a series. Min Min is here because she's popular with the fans and with one of the directors of ARMS.

If it's not one of those four I'll be shocked. Twintelle is another fan favourite but she's a crap representation of ARMS being one of the very few who don't fight with their...err...Arms.

Want: 80%

I actually have very few favourites stuck in Assist Trophy hell...literally just Bomberman and Waluigi as my second most wanted Mario character(which puts him in like...10th most wanted), but I can't pretend it'd be sweet to see yet another gatekeeping fan rule get demolished.

Isaac getting in would really make the fans happy, and more importantly to me, my sibling very happy.

Midna and Skull Kid aren't my first picks for Zelda characters at all, but they're both not bad choices and would finally give Zelda a newcomer after so many years of nothing.

As for Springman himself...he's not my favourite ARMS design, but he's absolutely the one that should be in. As a Yoshi and Toad fan(oh hey did my username give me away?) I'd absolutely never put either of them above the importance of Mario, Bowser, Peach or Luigi...although I'd have put Toad above everyone else apart from Yoshi and Wario, the hell is Rosalina, Doc, Plant and Daisy doing there anyway?

Guess we'll need to wait and see!
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
10,656
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Alright, then, maybe I’m wrong about Assist toggling for every stage (I’m no game designer myself). Again, I apologize if I came off as harsh. All I can truly say is that I’ll either have this image (it’s not mine, btw) trounced in my face:
8C78F84E-E2EB-49CF-8BBC-BA17E9320004.jpeg

…or I’ll find myself prancing around with this image:
86B8377E-BC62-46FC-8C55-C80B450C54DD.jpeg

But then again, the bottom image could be used both ways, couldn’t it?
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,281
Alright, then, maybe I’m wrong about Assist toggling for every stage (I’m no game designer myself). Again, I apologize if I came off as harsh. All I can truly say is that I’ll either have this image (it’s not mine, btw) trounced in my face:
View attachment 270746
…or I’ll find myself prancing around with this image:
View attachment 270747
But then again, the bottom image could be used both ways, couldn’t it?
How is it that Spongebob has a meme for every situation?
 

Trevenant

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
1,166
Assist Promotion
I laugh, but let's entertain the idea of Spring Man just for the sake of it.



But they always add the protagonist/mascot first.
Not actually true. Ninten was the first Mother protagonist, not Ness, and Jigglypuff, Mewtwo and Pichu got in before Pokemon Trainer despite character switching being a thing in Melee. Heck, the main character of R.O.B.'s games is Professor Hector and I don't see him anywhere. And as Sakurai stated before, it doesn't matter whether they're significant or important or iconic, what matters is that they're fun to play, so he's going to have someone who's more fun than Spring Man.
Incorrect actually as the rule isn't 'first protagonist/ mascot' it's just the general protagonist or mascot who joins to represent the series for the first time so Ninten before ness doesn't really mean much. And Pokemon is a pretty obvious exception as when you think of the Pokemon you don't think of the trainer but rather pokemon. ROB is still a mascot as he is literally what you play those games with. You seem to be completely ignoring the mascot first part despite literally acknowledging it when 'addressing' the arguments. And fun to play doesn't really matter as Nintendo are picking the DLC. In the case of ARMS fun to play probably applied to the cast as a whole rather than a specific character so that probably wouldn't apply to Springman. You show that you don't even want to entertain the idea out of what I assume to be distaste or what have you but I digress. I just thought that it needed pointing out but I will try not to derail discussion as usual
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,209
Location
Georgia
AT Promotion
Chance: 41%
Spring Man has the best shot. ARMS is a new successful franchise without a Smash rep. Several other ATs like Shovel Knight and Bomberman stand out, as they're guest characters without playable representatives, so them being up for consideration isn't entirely unbelievable. After that though, you reach either the notable or popular side characters, remnants of Nintendo history, or things that couldn't be a serious contenders in the first place (Color TV game, Fly Swatter, Rathalos.) I can only see it coming down to Nintendo deciding the demand is big enough to warrant a specific AT being promoted, or a new release starring the character is on the way. I find it hard to be confident in that happening, but it's still possible.

Want: 80%
Many ATs are solid options for playable characters that I actually recognize. I would legit be happy to see characters like Zero, Waluigi, Guile, and Bomberman. Even Nightmare would be amazing to see fleshed out into a full character, considering how lackluster his AT currently is.

Nomination: Kratos x5
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Since we have the uncertainty of the ARMS rep, my normal 0% has gone up to

Chance: 50%
The majority of this is because of Springman. It's a coin flip because we really don't know whats going to happen with the ARMS rep. In terms of everyone as a whole, I made 2 tier lists going off the assumption we are getting one. One for Chance and one for

Individual Thoughts some characters:

Squid Sisters: They were not supposed to be in the literally impossible section on chance. I didn't notice my mistake until I had downloaded the picture and closed the tab. Just pretend they're in the probably not section please!

Alucard: Wasn't there an interview where Sakurai said he was considered but Thought Simon and Richter would be more recognizable or something?

Isaac: Golden Sun had a trademark renewal like last year.

Skull Kid, Midna, & Ghirahim: WHY DO ALL THE POTENTIAL ZELDA REPS KEEP GETTING ASSIST TROPHIES?

Yuri: IDK, just didn't think her getting promoted was that weird in my head.

Andross: Probably could do more than spit tiles or whatever that is, but IDK enough about him to say what. Most of the rest of the Probably nots are easy to understand





Want: 50%
Here is the Want tier list

Chain Chomp: Yes I want to play as a Chain Chomp. No, I am not trolling.

Grey Fox/Rodin: This dude is cool af.

Isaac: I've told this story before. I thought I played Issac's games before when I saw him in Brawl. I was wrong, but I still like him.

Waluigi: IDK where i saw this anymore, but someone pitched and idea for him to be a Mario Sports rep and that would be pretty cool.

Tiki: "All FE chracters are anime sword fighters" THIS IS A MOTHER****ING DRAGON STFU. I get people not wanting FE spam, but she'd be very cool.

Shadow/Waluigi: I'm not really that interested in them, but enough people would be happy about it to the point where I'm just indifferent on them now.

Skull Kid: I don't really like Skull Kid, but if he's promoted I could just always have him in the game when I play with items on and I'll never have to see his assist ever again.

Ashley: Do we really need another Warioware rep? More people know Wario through Mario Sports games anyway.

The Devil: why is this still a thing? Does anyone enjoy getting this guy?





Noms: Baldi x5
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
1,045
Location
ZE BATH
PRRRRROMOTION!

CHANCE: 50%


If this was Fighter Pass 1 before Terry's confirmation, i would have given it a 1% in chance. There was no reason to believe they would do this, at least from what i have seen. Now with Fighter Pass 2, it's a different situation. Fighter Pass 1 openede with Joker, a character from a brand new unvierse not represetned in Smash in any way or capacity, and this trend followed all the way with Banjo, The Heroes and Terry. Byleth is the only from a represented series, but the game they come from was completely ignored in Smash's base game until their announcement. This makes it clear that all of the characters (even Byleth to an extent) were underepresented in the base game, likely because it as beign planned as the base game was finished in 2018.

Fighter Pass 2, on the other hand, was likely started after the base game was 100% completed and beyond, which means the time between adding all of those spirits and assists and starting development Fighter Pass 2 was much larger than Fighter Pass 1. During that time, Sakurai could have gone "hmmm, i added almost all the important japanese gaming icons, where could i go now? i don't plan a Fighter Pass 3 and this could be the last Smash game for a long time, so maybe i could just make this character playable that i always wanted but never added to wrap things up. What's that? they are an AT? meh, doesn't matter now, let's add them anyway"

DLC tends to be planned far ahead in time (sometimes even before the Base game is fully finished) which is why i didn't see this as possible. But now? Well, yeah. Hell, Sakurai considered adding ARMS in Ultimate's base game, but decided against it because of timing, and now we are getting an ARMS DLC Rep, so Sakurai can change his mind during a DLC Pass. Time will tell how much said ARMS rep changes the game.


WANT:50%

I wasn't going to give this a want score. As i said in the Zelda Rep day, i like rating characters over "Reps", but this isn't just a rep from a franchise i have average interest in, this is something much larger.


........okay fine, im only giving it this high because of the possibility of Isaac, Waluigi, Takamaru etc joining in if this were to happen. But even if none of the characters who i wanted got promoted, i still would want to see this rule broken. So many cool Nintendo characters could finally be given the chance to shine thanks to this. Hell i find some of the Assist in Smash to be cooler than the Newcomers we got in Smash 4.

Dillon could easily be foil to Sonic, and his cowboy-inspired appereance and personality make him stand out among the cast. I mentioned before that i actually like Ghirahim and i would gladly be happy to see him in. Shadow, despite my distaste in edgy rivals, was the only echo i wanted. Lyn.....................hmmm............she's cute i guess?

Noms:
No Third Parties in this Pass X5
 
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Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Let the shackles be released!

Chance: 50%
At this point, it's honestly a 50-50 chance either way. As all the ARMS discussions have already quite clearly shown, Spring Man is one of the top contenders to be our next DLC fighter, but there's a very real chance that it's going to be someone else, like Min-Min or Ribbon Girl. At any rate, I do not consider this an impossibility by any means when considering that plenty of Assist Trophies are already disabled on certain stages. What's one more condition? And beyond that, what'd be so bad about a character being both Assist Trophy and fighter? Chrom's already both a fighter and a final Smash assist character, with no care for even the palettes of Chrom already in play.

Want: 100%
There's plenty of Assist Trophies that I'd like playable (though mostly from the Zelda series), so honestly? Yeah. I definitely want that.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5

Predicting Minato to get 1.23%.
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Assist trophy becomes playable

Chance - 75% - I think this will ultimately come down to Spring Man. It's hard to say if he will be just a one off or a sign of greater things to come, but I think that if he can't get in no Assist Trophy can. Thus, I choose to make my percentage the same as my score for Spring Man.

Want - 80% - While it would mostly come down to choice, there are a lot of Assist Trophies that I would want playable. Having just a chance at them makes me go from neutral to actively wanting.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi Rep X5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x130
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x125
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x125
Axel Stone x120
Earthworm Jim x115
Junko & Monokuma x110
Concept: DLC music packs x105
Concept: Level-5 rep x105

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x90
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x85
Meowth x81
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Brian (Quest 64) x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Guardian (Destiny) x75
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x68
Ahri (League of Legends) x67

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x45
Terra Branford x40
[Rerate] Steve x40
[Rerate] Kratos x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x39
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Gordon Freeman x30
Dr. Eggman x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Frank West x25
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x15
Stage: Bowser's Castle x13
Gooigi x13
Fulgore x11
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Louie x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) loses the arms race against Dragalia Lost rep. The former is now facing Gen 8 Pokémon for second place while the latter takes its place as the undisputed top dog of the list. Earthworm Jim rockets past Junko & Monokuma and lands in fifth place. DLC music packs and Level-5 rep both cross 100 noms.

Lu Bu, Frank West, and Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies cover 25 noms each.

A challenger approaches! It's Louie, with 5 noms.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
It's now time for my big Assist Trophy post (of course I was going to make one).

Chance: 80%
I was going to go with 100% because I'm just feeling it right now. It's nothing but a hunch, a gut feeling, but I really do think we're getting them. But I do think there's a chance that Spring Man gets completely shut out, and while not definitive it would spell bad things for other ATs' prospects. It's probably for the best, as the things I give 100s to don't tend to end up faring well.

Want: 100%
I'll preface this by saying that no matter who it is or how many there are, I see it as only a good thing. Confirmation that anyone and everyone can get in is nothing but good for speculation. But, yes, of course I have a personal interest in this happening, because many of the characters I want are ATs (and Spirits, and Mii Costumes, etc - and given how the community regards ATs, it's likely that confirmation that they can happen will trickle down to all other kinds of base game disconfirmations). Spring Man is the canary in the coalmine, and if he gets in I could see one or two others get promoted (I don't see a full-AT pass, mostly because such a thing can only be justified by fan demand, and there are more fan requested characters in other roles aside from AT). So, without further ado, here's my opinion on every Assist Trophy ever. This is for everyone who didn't get rated because we didn't think they were possible.

Akira Yuki: I acknowledge Virtua Fighter's place in videogame history, and I wouldn't be upset at all if he got in. However, there's other Sega franchises that also have history that I have more affection for, and as fighting games go, Tekken, Mortal Kombat, Dead or Alive and Soul Calibur are my priorities. I never got into Virtua Fighter's characters, and that's a pretty important thing for me in a fighting game; if Akira gets in, I would like for him to be his current low-poly self.

Alucard: We've talked about him recently so I'll be brief: anyone who stars in a game as monumental as Symphony of the Night deserves a spot in Smash.

Andross: I'd rather have Krystal and I think four is a good number for Star Fox. I don't know if Andross has the moveset potential. Him not being a boss, however, is a waste.

Arcade Bunny: Yes please. I don't know how, but I want this ****** to be playable. A croupier rabbit fighting with badges is right up my alley, and this is when you realize just how deep my alley goes.

Ashley: WarioWare desperately needs a second character, and Ashley has the potential to be one of Nintendo's modern stars if they capitalize on her like they did with Isabelle. We don't have a witch moveset in Smash, so let's get the girl next door to teach Bayonetta how it's really done.

Barbara the Bat: a rock diva? Sign me up. Barbara just oozes personality and is an archetype that I'd love to see explored by Sakurai.

Black Knight: I'm iffy on the amount of Fire Emblem characters we have, but if there's something I think every series should have, is a cool villain, and Black Knight is perfect for that role. An unstoppable, slow powerhouse that would make Ganondorf look like Sonic, I wouldn't mind to see this one march into battle. Just... Please stop suggesting he'd work as an Ike echo. He wouldn't.

Bomberman: My bomber boy was robbed, I tell you! This is just a high caliber pick, in the Mega Man league of just making sense. An icon, a mascot, a Nintendo mainstay, Bomberman would have a deceptively simple and strategic moveset.

Burrowing Snagret: you can stay an AT

Chain Chomp: after Piranha Plant I dread the idea that a random Mario mook could make the cut again. Please no.

Chef Kawasaki: living proof of Sakurai bias, this guy being an AT over many more important Kirby characters is just incredibly baffling.

Color TV Game 15: honestly if they could make a character out of this I'd be more impressed than mad

Dark Samus: Victory #1

Devil: I'd like a representative of Devil World, it's a really weird game but I think expanding it to make for a Smash fighter would be really cool. I'm on the fence on whether it should be this guy or Tamagon though.

Dillon: absolutely. A properly developed Sonic, plus tower defense mechanics making for a fighter who thrives on stage control? Plus a cool Western stage? Dillon absolutely deserves another shot.

Dr. Kawashima: real talk: I think the floating head of a real-life doctor throwing around numbers and other stuff from Brain Age would be super fun. No way this actually happens but a man can dream.

Dr. Wright: He's fine, but I like that they've kept him over the years. It's a nice homage to Will Wright and given what EA did to Maxis and SimCity it's certainly needed. I do wish they'd done more with his AT though, an Isaac style expansion to his abilities would be great because there's a lot more you can do.

Elec Man: What a random choice Elec Man was. Was a cool AT though.

Excitebiker: you bet. Why isn't Excitebiker playable yet? A fighter who's always on a bike, using the ramps and boosters from the original game, maybe even with an overheat mechanic to make him a rushdown-then-zoner character. Moveset writes itself, and the game is a classic.

Flies & Hand: No, but this is such a cool, unexpected AT, I like it.

Ghirahim: Ghirahim's dope. For all the hate that Skyward Sword gets, Ghirahim's just a cool character, and I'm all for more Zelda characters.

Ghosts: Nah, Pac-Man's fine, he's all you need for his franchise. Maybe Ms. Pac-Man would be cool, but given the rights issues I expect Pac-Man to remain solo. Let's get other retro Bamco franchises, like Dig Dug.

Gray Fox: Hmm, I think Raiden or Big Boss would be better picks for a second Metal Gear rep. Gray Fox is iconic, but Raiden's the cyborg ninja that you actually get to play as. I'll pass.

Guile: let's get Chun-Li and Bison, then we can start talking about other Street Fighters.

Hammer Bro: see Chain Chomp

Helirin: I'd actually really like to see Kururin. I thought the games were pretty fun and Kururin is very cute, this tiny bird with goggles on this big flying spinning apparatus in Smash really speaks to me.

Infantry and Tanks: bring them back, or don't, but give me Andy.

Isaac: How do you talk about Assist Trophies and not mention Isaac? At this point he's become one of the most famous examples of Assist Trophies with popularity, he's probably one of the most demanded characters left. Golden Sun and The Lost Age are complete classics, Isaac has so much moveset potential it's not even funny, let's just get him in already. If we get promotions, I'd say he's one of the strongest candidates.

Isabelle: Victory #2

Jeff: I love Jeff, Earthbound's my favorite game of all time, but I think other candidates from that series are more compelling, so Jeff's fine as he is.

Jill: I love Drill Dozer, so I'm strongly in favor of Jill getting in. Her gear mechanic translates pretty well to Smash, I think, and I hope for Drill Dozer to get more recognition.

Kapp'n: Tom Nook or bust.

Kat & Ana: would be neat, but I'd prefer Ashley or Mona for a WarioWare rep.

Klaptrap: this is obviously fine as an AT.

Knuckle Joe: see Chef Kawasaki, though at least this one has the excuse of getting in in Brawl.

Knuckles the Echidna: Tails, Shadow and Eggman should be priorities, but I see no reason why Knuckles shouldn't be in with how iconic and popular he is. Sonic really should have more characters.

Krystal: Will she get back into the Star Fox games at some point? Will we ever get another of them anyway? I don't know, but Krystal in Smash I see as more plausible. We don't have a staff fighter, ice as an element is still very underrepresented, and this would just complete Star Fox fighters for me, and give us a space animal with a new moveset. I miss the days when Krystal was one of the most popular characters...

Lakitu and Spinies: see Hammer Bro

Little Mac: Victory #3

Lyn: Fire Emblem doesn't deserve 9 fighters, but we as a community deserve Lyn. She's absolutely nothing of what people hate about Fire Emblem, being a green haired katana wielder who can't be confused for anyone else, moveset or looks-wise. She represents Fire Emblem's transition to global franchise, a monumental step for the series, and still one of the best games. And she's one of the most popular characters in the franchise. We're way overdue for Lyn, and she'd go a long way towards gaining goodwill for her series.

Magnus: he's a great character, but he's fine as an AT. There are better options for his series and it's not like his moveset potential is stellar.

Metroid: I like the Metroid AT, keep it as an AT.

Midna: my preferred choice for a new Zelda rep, there's a lot to love about the imp princess. Her spunky personality, her hair-based moveset, her quirky design and unique body shape, she'd be a fighter like no other.

Mr. Resetti: alright this is one of the best Assist Trophies why is he not back

Moon: if Skull Kid wasn't going to be playable this should have just been his function. Skull Kid's AT sucks.

Mother Brain: see Andross. Metroid makes for great ATs. We should get more.

Nightmare: yeah, Nightmare's the Kirby Assist Trophy. Not Dark Matter, not Adeleine, not Daroach, Nightmare. He turns the screen black.

Nikki: I really like Nikki and I'd love it if she could be playable. Thing is I also support Vince and Adeleine and I don't know if you can do three artist movesets and keep them fresh.

Nintendog: I really like this AT. Lets me see puppies.

Phosphora: damn Phosphora is a really random Assist Trophy choice. Not very inspired either. I like her as a character but I'm fine with her being gone.

Rathalos: one of the best calls in Ultimate was representing Monster Hunter with Rathalos playing a dual AT-boss role. He can stay as he is.

Ray Mk. III: Custom Robo is an amazing franchise that deserves a comeback and Ray would make for an incredibly compelling fighter. He has such a deep arsenal and the potential for a customizability gimmick makes him a must, plus we can get a more mecha looking robot.

Riki: **** you Riki

Rodin: I think Jeanne's a better Bayonetta echo.

Prince of Sable: I adore For the Frog the Bell Tolls, I recommend it to anyone, and the Prince, with his ability to turn into frogs and snakes, plus the offbeat and humorous things he does in the game (attacking through dustclouds, with bags of money, with a gang of miners as his backup, calling a mind controlled mammoth to assist him), this is one of my most wanted characters ever and my pipe dream pick.

Saki Amamiya: Sin & Punishment is a classic. Saki is a cool character, with a great design. His acrobatic maneuvers and the versatile Dolphin Gun, this guy was just born to be a fighter in Smash Bros. Plus he honors the legacy of Treasure, one of the best devs ever in my opinion.

Samurai Goroh: F-Zero deserves more love, and while I think Black Shadow as an Echo is the easiest, and therefore likeliest, avenue, Falcon's rival as a unique newcomer will always be something I support. I think he would stand out from the more refined and agile Lyn and the better equipped Takamaru by his simplicity and over the top nature. I'd really like to see what Sakurai can do with another F-Zero character, as his development of Falcon as a Sentai hero is still one of the best things in Smash.

Shadow the Hedgehog: the most obvious echo in existence, Shadow was truly robbed. Like I said, Sonic deserves a second character, and nobody's better than Sonic's incredibly popular rival.

Sheriff: as the first character Nintendo created, I think this guy should be in Smash. There's enough in Sheriff to craft a moveset, and the history aspect of him is too compelling for me not to support him.

Shovel Knight: I think Shovel Knight should be playable. His impact for the indie scene is not to be understated, and the philosophy behind his design makes him an easy fit for Smash.

Skull Kid: with no character can you see how Zelda was snubbed better than with this guy. Majora's Mask is one of the most iconic elements in Zelda yet apparently he's not important enough to the series? Yeah, I call bull****.

Spring Man: the man of the hour, I already spoke about him on his day recently. But obviously, he's one of the strongest candidates.

Squid Sisters: I do think given Splatoon's phenomenal success, a second fighter in Smash would go a long way towards establishing more of its cast as icons. However, I'd go with Octolings for an Echo (or semiclone) or maybe DJ Octavio as the villain.

Starfy: Starfy is no joke. A prince who's the star of five platformers should be treated with some more respect. His games are really good, and I like him. #respect4starfy

Starman: I love Starman as an AT, it's a keeper.

Sukapon: the star of Nintendo's first fighter, and one that had the record for most characters at the time, I think Sukapon is a natural choice for Smash. This comedian robot can throw his own head, do cartwheels, pull off suplexes that would put Incineroar to shame, and due to the nature of his game, has the movesets of 36 characters to draw from. Sukapon's one of my most wanted, and I've supported him since I played Joy Mech Fight in the Brawl era. It holds up pretty well as a party game so I suggest you give it a try, when all this is over.

Takamaru: Mysterious Murasame Castle could probably have been one of Nintendo's big series if it hadn't been Japan exclusive, but no use dwelling over lost opportunities. Takamaru has an incredible arsenal of weaponry and magic at his disposal, his game has incredible music, and I like to think a Kid Icarus Uprising style comeback would be inevitable. Sakurai said he was considered, now it's time for him to deliver.

Thwomp: see Lakitu and Spinies. Remember when we rated Thwomp because of that guy?

Tiki: I like Tiki as much as any FE fan, and as the first Manakete, she's important for the series, but given the amount of characters it has and the fact that she's not even close to being a main character, I think she's just very low priority.

Tingle: I don't hate Tingle. I would be okay with Tingle. Tingle's just not one of the Zelda characters I'd be delighted to see, but at this point any Zelda character would be fine.

Vince: see Nikki

Waluigi: the purple king of Assist Trophies, the eternal loser, and one of the characters with the most outcry - probably the most, as far as the mainstream goes. Is this his time? If Assist Trophies are promoted, I think it would be outrageous to omit him. They know about his demand, they've admitted they know about his demand, so it's time for everyone to put on their big boy pants, come up with a moveset (it can't be hard) and give the people what they want. He's the one who has the most to win if Spring Man gets in and the most to lose if he doesn't.

Dr. Wily: I think Dr. Wily, by all merits, should get in, but he's too redundant with Eggman and Eggman's more iconic and there might be other priorities with Mega Man. If they can make it work, I'm all for it.

Yuri Kozukata: a character from a horror game in which you fight ghosts by taking pictures sounds like a good recipe for a very unique newcomer. Despite knowing almost nothing about Fatal Frame, Yuri's Assist Trophy immediately convinced me.

Zero: personally? I like X more. But Zero would probably be the second Mega Man rep, and he'd be a great choice. Representing Mega Man, with its several different subseries, isn't easy, and I don't really know what the priority should be here or how many characters it could get, so I'd just take what comes. Zero is iconic, he's popular, he has a laser sword, and sometimes, that's all you need.

Aaaand that's it! All the Assist Trophies. As you can see, I have a lot of love for many of them, and I'm really grateful for many of them being ATs in the first place as they introduced me to many cool characters. But when we have characters like Waluigi or Isaac who have been Assist Trophies since Brawl and have had constant demand to be promoted, I think a mistake's been made.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Minato prediction: this will be low, and then he'll get a few very high scores. 4.76%
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
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Messages
8,281
It's now time for my big Assist Trophy post (of course I was going to make one).

Chance: 80%
I was going to go with 100% because I'm just feeling it right now. It's nothing but a hunch, a gut feeling, but I really do think we're getting them. But I do think there's a chance that Spring Man gets completely shut out, and while not definitive it would spell bad things for other ATs' prospects. It's probably for the best, as the things I give 100s to don't tend to end up faring well.

Want: 100%
I'll preface this by saying that no matter who it is or how many there are, I see it as only a good thing. Confirmation that anyone and everyone can get in is nothing but good for speculation. But, yes, of course I have a personal interest in this happening, because many of the characters I want are ATs (and Spirits, and Mii Costumes, etc - and given how the community regards ATs, it's likely that confirmation that they can happen will trickle down to all other kinds of base game disconfirmations). Spring Man is the canary in the coalmine, and if he gets in I could see one or two others get promoted (I don't see a full-AT pass, mostly because such a thing can only be justified by fan demand, and there are more fan requested characters in other roles aside from AT). So, without further ado, here's my opinion on every Assist Trophy ever. This is for everyone who didn't get rated because we didn't think they were possible.

Akira Yuki: I acknowledge Virtua Fighter's place in videogame history, and I wouldn't be upset at all if he got in. However, there's other Sega franchises that also have history that I have more affection for, and as fighting games go, Tekken, Mortal Kombat, Dead or Alive and Soul Calibur are my priorities. I never got into Virtua Fighter's characters, and that's a pretty important thing for me in a fighting game; if Akira gets in, I would like for him to be his current low-poly self.

Alucard: We've talked about him recently so I'll be brief: anyone who stars in a game as monumental as Symphony of the Night deserves a spot in Smash.

Andross: I'd rather have Krystal and I think four is a good number for Star Fox. I don't know if Andross has the moveset potential. Him not being a boss, however, is a waste.

Arcade Bunny: Yes please. I don't know how, but I want this ****** to be playable. A croupier rabbit fighting with badges is right up my alley, and this is when you realize just how deep my alley goes.

Ashley: WarioWare desperately needs a second character, and Ashley has the potential to be one of Nintendo's modern stars if they capitalize on her like they did with Isabelle. We don't have a witch moveset in Smash, so let's get the girl next door to teach Bayonetta how it's really done.

Barbara the Bat: a rock diva? Sign me up. Barbara just oozes personality and is an archetype that I'd love to see explored by Sakurai.

Black Knight: I'm iffy on the amount of Fire Emblem characters we have, but if there's something I think every series should have, is a cool villain, and Black Knight is perfect for that role. An unstoppable, slow powerhouse that would make Ganondorf look like Sonic, I wouldn't mind to see this one march into battle. Just... Please stop suggesting he'd work as an Ike echo. He wouldn't.

Bomberman: My bomber boy was robbed, I tell you! This is just a high caliber pick, in the Mega Man league of just making sense. An icon, a mascot, a Nintendo mainstay, Bomberman would have a deceptively simple and strategic moveset.

Burrowing Snagret: you can stay an AT

Chain Chomp: after Piranha Plant I dread the idea that a random Mario mook could make the cut again. Please no.

Chef Kawasaki: living proof of Sakurai bias, this guy being an AT over many more important Kirby characters is just incredibly baffling.

Color TV Game 15: honestly if they could make a character out of this I'd be more impressed than mad

Dark Samus: Victory #1

Devil: I'd like a representative of Devil World, it's a really weird game but I think expanding it to make for a Smash fighter would be really cool. I'm on the fence on whether it should be this guy or Tamagon though.

Dillon: absolutely. A properly developed Sonic, plus tower defense mechanics making for a fighter who thrives on stage control? Plus a cool Western stage? Dillon absolutely deserves another shot.

Dr. Kawashima: real talk: I think the floating head of a real-life doctor throwing around numbers and other stuff from Brain Age would be super fun. No way this actually happens but a man can dream.

Dr. Wright: He's fine, but I like that they've kept him over the years. It's a nice homage to Will Wright and given what EA did to Maxis and SimCity it's certainly needed. I do wish they'd done more with his AT though, an Isaac style expansion to his abilities would be great because there's a lot more you can do.

Elec Man: What a random choice Elec Man was. Was a cool AT though.

Excitebiker: you bet. Why isn't Excitebiker playable yet? A fighter who's always on a bike, using the ramps and boosters from the original game, maybe even with an overheat mechanic to make him a rushdown-then-zoner character. Moveset writes itself, and the game is a classic.

Flies & Hand: No, but this is such a cool, unexpected AT, I like it.

Ghirahim: Ghirahim's dope. For all the hate that Skyward Sword gets, Ghirahim's just a cool character, and I'm all for more Zelda characters.

Ghosts: Nah, Pac-Man's fine, he's all you need for his franchise. Maybe Ms. Pac-Man would be cool, but given the rights issues I expect Pac-Man to remain solo. Let's get other retro Bamco franchises, like Dig Dug.

Gray Fox: Hmm, I think Raiden or Big Boss would be better picks for a second Metal Gear rep. Gray Fox is iconic, but Raiden's the cyborg ninja that you actually get to play as. I'll pass.

Guile: let's get Chun-Li and Bison, then we can start talking about other Street Fighters.

Hammer Bro: see Chain Chomp

Helirin: I'd actually really like to see Kururin. I thought the games were pretty fun and Kururin is very cute, this tiny bird with goggles on this big flying spinning apparatus in Smash really speaks to me.

Infantry and Tanks: bring them back, or don't, but give me Andy.

Isaac: How do you talk about Assist Trophies and not mention Isaac? At this point he's become one of the most famous examples of Assist Trophies with popularity, he's probably one of the most demanded characters left. Golden Sun and The Lost Age are complete classics, Isaac has so much moveset potential it's not even funny, let's just get him in already. If we get promotions, I'd say he's one of the strongest candidates.

Isabelle: Victory #2

Jeff: I love Jeff, Earthbound's my favorite game of all time, but I think other candidates from that series are more compelling, so Jeff's fine as he is.

Jill: I love Drill Dozer, so I'm strongly in favor of Jill getting in. Her gear mechanic translates pretty well to Smash, I think, and I hope for Drill Dozer to get more recognition.

Kapp'n: Tom Nook or bust.

Kat & Ana: would be neat, but I'd prefer Ashley or Mona for a WarioWare rep.

Klaptrap: this is obviously fine as an AT.

Knuckle Joe: see Chef Kawasaki, though at least this one has the excuse of getting in in Brawl.

Knuckles the Echidna: Tails, Shadow and Eggman should be priorities, but I see no reason why Knuckles shouldn't be in with how iconic and popular he is. Sonic really should have more characters.

Krystal: Will she get back into the Star Fox games at some point? Will we ever get another of them anyway? I don't know, but Krystal in Smash I see as more plausible. We don't have a staff fighter, ice as an element is still very underrepresented, and this would just complete Star Fox fighters for me, and give us a space animal with a new moveset. I miss the days when Krystal was one of the most popular characters...

Lakitu and Spinies: see Hammer Bro

Little Mac: Victory #3

Lyn: Fire Emblem doesn't deserve 9 fighters, but we as a community deserve Lyn. She's absolutely nothing of what people hate about Fire Emblem, being a green haired katana wielder who can't be confused for anyone else, moveset or looks-wise. She represents Fire Emblem's transition to global franchise, a monumental step for the series, and still one of the best games. And she's one of the most popular characters in the franchise. We're way overdue for Lyn, and she'd go a long way towards gaining goodwill for her series.

Magnus: he's a great character, but he's fine as an AT. There are better options for his series and it's not like his moveset potential is stellar.

Metroid: I like the Metroid AT, keep it as an AT.

Midna: my preferred choice for a new Zelda rep, there's a lot to love about the imp princess. Her spunky personality, her hair-based moveset, her quirky design and unique body shape, she'd be a fighter like no other.

Mr. Resetti: alright this is one of the best Assist Trophies why is he not back

Moon: if Skull Kid wasn't going to be playable this should have just been his function. Skull Kid's AT sucks.

Mother Brain: see Andross. Metroid makes for great ATs. We should get more.

Nightmare: yeah, Nightmare's the Kirby Assist Trophy. Not Dark Matter, not Adeleine, not Daroach, Nightmare. He turns the screen black.

Nikki: I really like Nikki and I'd love it if she could be playable. Thing is I also support Vince and Adeleine and I don't know if you can do three artist movesets and keep them fresh.

Nintendog: I really like this AT. Lets me see puppies.

Phosphora: damn Phosphora is a really random Assist Trophy choice. Not very inspired either. I like her as a character but I'm fine with her being gone.

Rathalos: one of the best calls in Ultimate was representing Monster Hunter with Rathalos playing a dual AT-boss role. He can stay as he is.

Ray Mk. III: Custom Robo is an amazing franchise that deserves a comeback and Ray would make for an incredibly compelling fighter. He has such a deep arsenal and the potential for a customizability gimmick makes him a must, plus we can get a more mecha looking robot.

Riki: **** you Riki

Rodin: I think Jeanne's a better Bayonetta echo.

Prince of Sable: I adore For the Frog the Bell Tolls, I recommend it to anyone, and the Prince, with his ability to turn into frogs and snakes, plus the offbeat and humorous things he does in the game (attacking through dustclouds, with bags of money, with a gang of miners as his backup, calling a mind controlled mammoth to assist him), this is one of my most wanted characters ever and my pipe dream pick.

Saki Amamiya: Sin & Punishment is a classic. Saki is a cool character, with a great design. His acrobatic maneuvers and the versatile Dolphin Gun, this guy was just born to be a fighter in Smash Bros. Plus he honors the legacy of Treasure, one of the best devs ever in my opinion.

Samurai Goroh: F-Zero deserves more love, and while I think Black Shadow as an Echo is the easiest, and therefore likeliest, avenue, Falcon's rival as a unique newcomer will always be something I support. I think he would stand out from the more refined and agile Lyn and the better equipped Takamaru by his simplicity and over the top nature. I'd really like to see what Sakurai can do with another F-Zero character, as his development of Falcon as a Sentai hero is still one of the best things in Smash.

Shadow the Hedgehog: the most obvious echo in existence, Shadow was truly robbed. Like I said, Sonic deserves a second character, and nobody's better than Sonic's incredibly popular rival.

Sheriff: as the first character Nintendo created, I think this guy should be in Smash. There's enough in Sheriff to craft a moveset, and the history aspect of him is too compelling for me not to support him.

Shovel Knight: I think Shovel Knight should be playable. His impact for the indie scene is not to be understated, and the philosophy behind his design makes him an easy fit for Smash.

Skull Kid: with no character can you see how Zelda was snubbed better than with this guy. Majora's Mask is one of the most iconic elements in Zelda yet apparently he's not important enough to the series? Yeah, I call bull****.

Spring Man: the man of the hour, I already spoke about him on his day recently. But obviously, he's one of the strongest candidates.

Squid Sisters: I do think given Splatoon's phenomenal success, a second fighter in Smash would go a long way towards establishing more of its cast as icons. However, I'd go with Octolings for an Echo (or semiclone) or maybe DJ Octavio as the villain.

Starfy: Starfy is no joke. A prince who's the star of five platformers should be treated with some more respect. His games are really good, and I like him. #respect4starfy

Starman: I love Starman as an AT, it's a keeper.

Sukapon: the star of Nintendo's first fighter, and one that had the record for most characters at the time, I think Sukapon is a natural choice for Smash. This comedian robot can throw his own head, do cartwheels, pull off suplexes that would put Incineroar to shame, and due to the nature of his game, has the movesets of 36 characters to draw from. Sukapon's one of my most wanted, and I've supported him since I played Joy Mech Fight in the Brawl era. It holds up pretty well as a party game so I suggest you give it a try, when all this is over.

Takamaru: Mysterious Murasame Castle could probably have been one of Nintendo's big series if it hadn't been Japan exclusive, but no use dwelling over lost opportunities. Takamaru has an incredible arsenal of weaponry and magic at his disposal, his game has incredible music, and I like to think a Kid Icarus Uprising style comeback would be inevitable. Sakurai said he was considered, now it's time for him to deliver.

Thwomp: see Lakitu and Spinies. Remember when we rated Thwomp because of that guy?

Tiki: I like Tiki as much as any FE fan, and as the first Manakete, she's important for the series, but given the amount of characters it has and the fact that she's not even close to being a main character, I think she's just very low priority.

Tingle: I don't hate Tingle. I would be okay with Tingle. Tingle's just not one of the Zelda characters I'd be delighted to see, but at this point any Zelda character would be fine.

Vince: see Nikki

Waluigi: the purple king of Assist Trophies, the eternal loser, and one of the characters with the most outcry - probably the most, as far as the mainstream goes. Is this his time? If Assist Trophies are promoted, I think it would be outrageous to omit him. They know about his demand, they've admitted they know about his demand, so it's time for everyone to put on their big boy pants, come up with a moveset (it can't be hard) and give the people what they want. He's the one who has the most to win if Spring Man gets in and the most to lose if he doesn't.

Dr. Wily: I think Dr. Wily, by all merits, should get in, but he's too redundant with Eggman and Eggman's more iconic and there might be other priorities with Mega Man. If they can make it work, I'm all for it.

Yuri Kozukata: a character from a horror game in which you fight ghosts by taking pictures sounds like a good recipe for a very unique newcomer. Despite knowing almost nothing about Fatal Frame, Yuri's Assist Trophy immediately convinced me.

Zero: personally? I like X more. But Zero would probably be the second Mega Man rep, and he'd be a great choice. Representing Mega Man, with its several different subseries, isn't easy, and I don't really know what the priority should be here or how many characters it could get, so I'd just take what comes. Zero is iconic, he's popular, he has a laser sword, and sometimes, that's all you need.

Aaaand that's it! All the Assist Trophies. As you can see, I have a lot of love for many of them, and I'm really grateful for many of them being ATs in the first place as they introduced me to many cool characters. But when we have characters like Waluigi or Isaac who have been Assist Trophies since Brawl and have had constant demand to be promoted, I think a mistake's been made.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Minato prediction: this will be low, and then he'll get a few very high scores. 4.76%
This honestly tempts me to give my thoughts on each individual Assist Trophy. However, my opinions on a few are a bit controversial, so I won't.
 

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Minato Arisato (also known as Makoto Yuki or simply Persona 3 Protagonist) from the Persona series.

Predict Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game.

Day will end Sunday morning.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Persona 3 mood:

Note: Since Mass Destruction and Battle Hymn of the Soul are already in Smash, I decided to showcase some other Persona 3 songs.

 

NintenRob

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Double 0
I really don't think we'd get another Persona character, we can't even get another Final Fantasy or Sonic character. And I wouldn't be surprised if Fighter Pass 2 is going to go in a different direction than Fighter Pass 1. As for want being 0, I don't even like Joker that much. It still kinda annoys me we don't have Persona 5 on Switch. I want the characters in the Nintendo exclusive crossover to be available on my Nintendo systems. And I don't care about minor spin-offs, they're more for people who already played the original anyway I'd imagine

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction, my other nomination, 67%
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
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Jul 29, 2014
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Drenthe, NL
We get it Sakurai, you like Persona
Double zeroes
This guy is already a DLC costume. More importantly however, Joker exists. The Persona franchise already has a whole challenger pack under its belt. I know it's mostly just P5 themed but it's not like P3 was forgotten, having that costume, multiple songs and Mementos turning blue and all. I don't see the need to double dip. We only have so many characters left, why would they go for a redundant character that wouldn't expand this crossover by much over other characters from unrepped series and companies. I've never played P3 but even if I did, this would still honestly feel like a waste.


Someone who isn't a star something something: 24.63%
Dr. Eggman x5
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
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Messages
10,656
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The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Insert “THE BABY” jokes from Other M here
Chance and Want: Double 0%

This guy’s already a costume with Joker in the same game. I’d love to see how Minato-san would play, but for now I’m content with Joker. I mean, for what we have, the only Persona 3 content we could add is more songs, and maybe even an Aigis Assist Trophy. Makes me wonder what things would be like if Aigis was the Persona rep.

A character who’s not the Star: 40%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,857
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winnipeg
Minato

Chance: 5%. The chance of that character getting in is very slim, but in the sequel, it could be different. But I'm pretty sure that competition will win against that character, but otherwise who knows what will happen.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about that character, but that characters would be a fun character to play as. A battle between Minato and Joker would be a fun one, and overall, Minato would be a decent rep idea.

Prediction: Character who is not the star of the game (10%)

Noms: 2 for Urbosa and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle
 

DanganZilla5

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2,370
Minato

Chance: 0.05%

I'm convinced that we can get more than one unique rep for a 3rd party franchise. However, this character isn't going to be the one that breaks that mold. For one, he is a paid Mii costume which is almost guaranteed to be a death sentence in my book since it would not make sense to pay for a Mii costume of a character then have people pay for that character later on. Furthermore Sega has other characters like Arle Nadja and Kiryu who are popular and are being pushed by Sega. Even within the realm of Atlus, you got Shin Megami Tensei and the other Persona protagonists. And I don't see much demand for this character too.

I don't see him as redundant. I'm sure there is plenty of music, stages, and spirits left that would represent Persona 3 more and even some of the other Persona games. But all things considered, I don't see Nintendo going for this character and Sakurai already got his Persona fix.

Want: Abstain

Never played Persona 3 so I can't comment.

Prediction: Character who isn't the star of their game - 35% (Well this is appropriate timing)

Noms: Frank West x5
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,281
Minato Arisato

Chance: 0%
I thought we all agreed DLC Mii Costumes deconfirmed. Even then, we did get some Persona 3 content with Joker. If they wanted more, why didn't they do it then?

Abstain on want. Never played Persona.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Minato

Chance 0 - Was added as a Mii Costume already and we already got this series as DLC. Feels like the chances aren't good tbh. Feel like Joker just reps the whole Persona series really well right now.

Want 0 - Don't really need another Persona rep in this game. I'm good with the content that was covered already.

Predictions
Not a star - 40%? Yeah lets go with that

Noms
Guardian x5
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Imagine not being able to tell your party members what to do.

Chance and Want: Double zeroes!

Makoto has no business getting in. He's not relevant, he's got nowhere near enough fan demand, the shock value is dead because of Joker, in fact Ren pretty much put him and Yu out of their misery by coming with a lot of Persona content, even if it's mostly 5. But forget all of that. Forget the competition in regards to SEGA, Atlus, SMT and Persona. Forget the fact that he shoots himself and the imagery alone is a bridge too far for many ratings boards. He's as dead as a dodo, because he's a DLC Mii Costume, the DLC equivalent to the Assist Trophy. Once you're here, you're done. The goose has been cooked, the fat lady has sung.

I think want explains itself in my case. But even if I had to pick another Persona character, Yu Narukami, and if it had to be from 3, I'd still rather have Aigis! I normally never say this, but good riddance. Okay, at least he would bring Master of Shadow to Smash... that's literally Yuki's only positive in my eyes.

DLC Music x 5. Non star is basically the opposite of the Assist Trophy rating, but still tied to it in that ARMS is the best shot. Hm... 32.60%.
 

Sari

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I'll be showing you the door now...

Chance: 0%
Minato is already a Mii costume and we even have a few of the most popular Persona 3 songs in Smash. I seriously doubt we'll be getting another Persona character because of this and especially when there are other Sega/Atlus series to choose from. Even if we were to get another Persona character, Yu Narukami would definitely be next in line for being much more popular.

Want: 0%
Outside of a few song omissions from Persona 4 and 5, I'm perfectly fine with the Persona content present in Smash right now. There are a ton of other Sega characters I'd want to see plus I'd much prefer Yu Narukami as the next Persona rep anyway.

Someone who isn't the star of their own game chance prediction: 30.00%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x10
 
Last edited:

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Minato Arisato
Chance: 0%
We got Joker as playable. Minato was added at the same time as a mii costume. I really don't see a scenario where we get 2 persona reps in DLC

Want: 5%
I'm pretty happy with what we got for Persona content. I don't think we need any more tbh.

Noms: Baldi x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Minato Arisato

Chance: 0% - He's a DLC Mii Costume, which alone kills his chances. Furthermore I can't see SEGA double-dipping on Persona when they have several unrepped series as potential newcomers, unless Sakurai manages to push for it somehow. The final nail in the coffin is the inclusion of Persona 3 content in Joker's pack, including Persona 3's most popular songs. So That's already a big draw towards his challenger pack gone.

Want: 0% - Never cared much for Persona even after trying it, and Joker's inclusion was already kinda pushing it. Yes, Smash is now a celebration of video games as a whole, but the character should have SOME kind of Nintendo connection. Minato comes from a Playstation exclusive game. Plus with so many other great series to choose from it'd be pretty boring to double-dip on Persona.


Nominations:
Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5


Predictions:
Character who isn't the star - 20.53%
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
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Oct 27, 2013
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1,209
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Georgia
Minato
Chance and Want 0%
He's one of the DLC Mii Costumes from Joker's pack, so I highly doubt they'd suddenly decide to make him playable. If anyone else from Persona is being included it would be IMO Kasumi from P5R. Nintendo would much more likely spring for a new character from a recent rerelease as far as Persona games go.
I don't have any interest in this character. I've never played these games and they don't look like something that would be for me. I already didn't buy Joker's pack so I wouldn't buy a Persona 3 one.

Nomination: Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Seed boy

Double zeroes. Let's put aside the fact that he's a DLC Mii Costume, and thus possibly disconfirmed. They won't have a fighter shooting himself in the head, that's just bound to raise the age rating of the game and could be setting themselves up for controversy. Plus, I really doubt they'd have another Persona rep, Sega has other franchises they could give a go to, if they want a second fighter from one of the franchises included it would be Sonic, and I'd like to think that they'd look for a Shin Megami Tensei character before double dipping in Persona. Even if they go for a second Persona rep, Yu would still get picked over this guy, as he's much more popular.

I don't want any Persona 3 content, I think it's far and away the worst Persona game so it's fine where it is.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Not the star prediction: 44%

Calcs coming later today
 

Garteam

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Canada, eh?
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T-Pose Tuesday

Chance - 0%
I try not to completely write off any video game character, no matter how unlikely they may be. However, Minato Arisato is one of those characters. Joker beating him as the Persona rep, his Mii Costume, the imagery of him shooting himself with a gun, competition with other Sega characters, competition with Yu Narukami, it really feels like poor Door-kun has everything going against him. I honestly can't see Minato get in.

Want - 5%
Joker's largely stratched any Persona itch I have, but a character who frequently shoots himself in the middle of the battle deserves more than a zero.

Prediction - not the star: 33%
Mostly low numbers, but a few people will give high scores because Min Min.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x135
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x130
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x125
Axel Stone x125
Earthworm Jim x120
Junko & Monokuma x110
Concept: DLC music packs x110
Concept: Level-5 rep x110

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x92
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x90
Meowth x81
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Guardian (Destiny) x80
Brian (Quest 64) x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x73
Ahri (League of Legends) x67

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x42
Terra Branford x40
[Rerate] Steve x40
Gordon Freeman x35
Dr. Eggman x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Frank West x30
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x15
Stage: Bowser's Castle x13
Gooigi x13
Fulgore x11
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Louie x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

This time, it's Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) who won the battle, defending second place. Gen 8 Pokémon now faces a fight from Axel Stone for third place. Junko & Monokuma fall behind and are now tied with DLC music packs and Level-5 rep for sixth place.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Minato Arisato

Chance: 0% - He's a DLC Mii Costume, which alone kills his chances. Furthermore I can't see SEGA double-dipping on Persona when they have several unrepped series as potential newcomers, unless Sakurai manages to push for it somehow. The final nail in the coffin is the inclusion of Persona 3 content in Joker's pack, including Persona 3's most popular songs. So That's already a big draw towards his challenger pack gone.

Want: 0% - Never cared much for Persona even after trying it, and Joker's inclusion was already kinda pushing it. Yes, Smash is now a celebration of video games as a whole, but the character should have SOME kind of Nintendo connection. Minato comes from a Playstation exclusive game. Plus with so many other great series to choose from it'd be pretty boring to double-dip on Persona.


Nominations:
Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5


Predictions:
Character who isn't the star - 20.53%
Uh... His official name is Makoto Yuki...
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Persona 3 Protagonist:

Chance: 1%. I'm giving him a 1% as, unlike some other new-rep-for-a-franchise-already-in-Smash, he at least has the content to fill out a fighter pass. P3 lacks spirits altogether, so that's easy. It also lacks most of its music and the Persona music in Smash hasn't even touched spin-off titles yet, so that's doable. It also lacks it's own stage, obviously. Plus, he actually won the (Japan-only) Persona Q2 popularity contest, so that's a good. If we were to get a second unique Persona rep, then I think he'd stand a good chance.

Problem is... That phrase includes the words "second," "unique," and "Persona character" in sequence. That's a lot of stipulation and I don't think that's happening haha.

First, they would need to double-dip on ATLUS. SEGA has a metric tonne of franchises, as everyone's saying. Sakura Wars, Shenmue, and Streets of Rage have had good revivals lately. Super Monkey Ball and Panzer Dragoon both got remakes recently... Yakuza's been doing well. Puyo Puyo is finally being recognized in the west without needing to wear Sonic or Kirby cosplay. There is currently only one homegrown Sega character in Smash, as Bayonetta was made by Platinum Games and Joker by Atlus. I'd be kind of surprised if they wanted to give Atlus a second character, especially as they've already represented the most mainstream title that also happens to be developed by Atlus while owned by Sega...

Second, there is the problem of a "unique" character. Some are expecting echo fighter DLC to the ARMS character. I'm skeptical about that, but I will say that Joker acts a lot more like a Phantom Thief then he does a regular Persona protagonist. He has a grappling hook, a model gun (that shoots bullets, unlike evokers), and his rebellion gauge represents how people awaken to their personas in P5 by channeling their inner rebellion after being beaten down by society (an awakening method unique to that title). In a world where Ness/Lucas use mostly moves they don't know in their base game, I don't think it's impossible for a previous Persona protagonist to echo Joker anyway, but it does raise the issue of competition with P5 characters who would echo Joker more accurately. Particularly, there are two characters in P5(R) that are specifically written to be foils to Joker and neither currently appear in Mementos or in Joker's final smash. If Joker gets an echo (and that's a big if), then it will almost certainly be one of those two characters.

Thirdly, there is competition within ATLUS. Does anyone else think it's kind of weird that Jack Frost, the mascot of ATLUS himself, still isn't a spirit? The fact that Persona sprouted out of a spin-off to Shin Megami Tensei was acknowledged by the press realize announcing Joker, but mainline SMT still has no content whatsoever in Smash. I think they're probably just waiting for something SMT-y to be on Switch and they'll get a spirit event then, but I also think that Jack Frost (or a SMT protagonist summoning Jack Frost alongside other demons) is the most likely candidate for the role of a second unique ATLUS rep. They could give the P3MC multiple personas with Jack Frost as one of them, but at that point... Why not represent mainline SMT and bring a new franchise into Smash? Honestly, the sales disparity between Persona and Shin Megami Tensei is large when one compares the ages/number-of-titles-in each franchise, but SMT certainly wouldn't be the smallest franchise in Smash by a long shot. I don't see a reason to not someone from it as a second Atlus character.

Want: Look, I wrote a lot of words and yesterday got into a brief argument about the P3MC's name. I clearly like this character and the Persona franchise. If he got into Smash Bros, then I'd be happy. Heck, if there was a P3 spirit event, I'd be happy. There are very few ways one could combine Atlus properties and Smash Bros without increasing my personal happiness.

That said, this is a want score, not a happiness score. And do I want the P3MC in Smash? No! 0%! Why? Because I like Persona and don't want to deal with the salt that would come with it getting a spot in our precious 5-character-left fighter's pass. People already don't like that it's in Smash at all and, frankly, his inclusion divided the SMT/Persona fandom divide even more then it was, a feat that I didn't know was possible. Don't get me wrong: Joker was my pipedream character and I don't want to sound ungreatful - I love him and love the fact he's in - but I've been burned by the "I wanted a character and now the franchise is widely hated" motif before. Robin was my most-wanted character in Smash 4 and now I feel, like, personally guilty as if I'm somehow responsible for Fire Emblem's over-saturation in Smash? I don't want to re-experience that with Persona. At least Jack Frost would allow for mainline SMT fans to feel catered to, while still satisfying most Persona fans as Jack Frost in popular within both fandoms...

TL;DR - 1%/0%; too much competition lol

Edit: Forgot Predictions and Noms...

Prediction: Um. 45%? This is a hard one.
Noms: Level-5 x 5
 
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Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
I can't even be bothered to come up with a joke

Chance: 0%
Joker's already in, and he brought content from the entire Persona series with him, among that a Mii costume for this guy. Plus, if there's a third-party franchise that's gonna get more than one character, it sure as hell isn't going to be Persona.

Want: 0%
Even after I actually bought the Fighter Pass in January and got to play Joker and see his content for myself, I still have absolutely zero interest in the series. I don't want any more Persona in Smash.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x5

Predicting tomorrow's concept to be around 15.51%.
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Don't burn your bread, Door-kun

Chance: 0%
If another Persona character gets in, that's not the one. Yu has more of a shot and even then, I wouldn't bet on another Persona rep. There really isn't much to say... Persona had its most popular rep invited, single 3rd party franchises have yet to get another rep (Ken or Richter notwithstanding)... It's just not happening this smash.

Want: abstain
I actually like P3MC but it's too hard for me to accurately say how much I'd want him since I'm much much more partial to P3FeMC. That and well, having a sword, he's much more generic than Joker or FeMC with her naginata. What makes him great wouldn't really translate into Smash so... I just can't give a number. Sorry, I can't.

Predictions: concept: not the star of their game - 35%

Nominations: Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Concept: Devolver Digital rep
1.66% Chance - 34.17% Want
Winner of predictions was @Velveeta Dream with a precise 2.00%. Hey, maybe the score was low, but at least you got extra noms out of it.
This is the lowest chance score for any concept ever. Not too surprising, given that there technically is no such thing.

Bubsy
0.21% Chance - 8.79% Want
Winner of predictions was 3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus with a near-exact 0.17%. Congratulations! You win 10 extra noms.
Surprisingly, Bubsy didn't break any records for low scores. I should mention, though, that 2 ratings heavily skewing the results. Without them, Bubsy would have 0.01% chance and 0.63% want, which would make him the least likely third party character and the lowest want score ever (for characters and concepts).

Spring Man
49.76% Chance - 62.54% Want
Last time we rated him he got 9.92% chance and 54.23% want. This was during a special Assist Trophy day in April 2019, and as you can see, ARMS' perceived decaying relevance and Joker being said to be representative of DLC choices didn't help his case. Rise in want might be attributed to rising interest due to the Smash announcement and the free trial, so whatever Nintendo's gambit is, it's working.
Winner of predictions was Ramen Tengoku Ramen Tengoku with a near-exact 46.78%. You also get 10 extra noms!
Spring Man, unsurprisingly, is the most likely first party fighter according to you (aside from Akira Howard, who, you know...).

Ribbon Girl
43.91% Chance - 57.15% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 with 44.17%

Ninjara
30.33% Chance - 53.68% Want
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire with 30.74%

Concept: New Zelda character
26.20% Chance - 80.41% Want
Winner of predictions was DaUsername DaUsername with a precise 25.00%
This concept currently has the highest want score for anything we've rated, concept or character (not counting the already confirmed More DLC and Second Fighter Pass).

Alucard
9.29% Chance - 58.63% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari Sari with 11.63%

Sirfetch'd
2.99% Chance - 40.64% Want
Winner of predictions was amageish amageish with a near-exact 3.00%. So close! But you still get the 10 extra noms.
Sirfetch'd got a lot of love, even people giving him low or even 0% want scores mentioning that if they had to get a Gen 8 rep, Sirfetch'd would be a good one. Given how close he got to popularity champion Toxtricity, I'd say reports of his popularity have not been exaggerated.

Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable
53.64% Chance - 74.72% Want
Winners of predictions were Perkilator Perkilator and DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 with a precise 50.00%
Aside from already confirmed (First-parties after the Fighter Pass) and disconfirmed (No fan favorites/highly requested characters, All DLC will be third-party) concepts, this is the most likely concept now. Interesting how it has a higher chance score than Spring Man - there appear to be those who think that even without the bouncer, another Assist Trophy could still get promoted.
I'll be honest, given the very high scores this was getting, I expected better numbers. I mean, only 3 of the want scores are under 50. But I guess a low score tanks the rating - math, the worst enemy of Assist Trophies.

Since you probably need the reminder, here are the ones who have extra noms

3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus 10
amageish amageish 10
Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 20
DaUsername DaUsername 72
Delzethin Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 48
Nemuresu Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed Ninjaed 20
Perkilator Perkilator 10
Sari Sari 5
Ramen Tengoku Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv Troykv 15
@Velveeta Dream 5
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 15

Considering the amount of people here who have a stake in the top 7, things are about to get messy.
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Damn it... I knew this wouldn't receive GREAT scores... but come on? Why is everyone givin my boi 0% on want?
Whatever.
Also I'm spoiling Persona 3 btw.
DOOR-KUN
Chance: 5%: He's not very likely. Persona 3 DOES have the least content of the 3 modern Persona games, with one less song then P4 and far less then Persona 5. He's definently popular, possibly moreso then Yu in the Persona fandom, but Yu is more well known because... he wasn't killed off at the end of his game and thus got the chance to appear in spinoffs, unlike poor Door-kun. He COULD happen, but he's not LIKELY to happen.
Want;100% Alright, this is what you expected, so strap in.

Persona 3 is my 3rd favorite game of all time.

Yes, this is going to be attacked by everyone, but Persona 3 is a game I love so much more then the other Persona games, because it connects with me in a way the other games don't. Minato in particular has always connected with me as a character despite being a silent protagonist, because Atlus somehow figured out how to give character development to a silent protagonist. Persona 3 is a game I love primarily for it's characters and story, though it does have good gameplay and is far more fun for me to play then the original or Persona 4. But in all honestly, it's characters connect with me in a way the characters in the other games... don't. I love Persona 2 and Persona 5; they're masterpieces that mean a lot to a lot of people. But Persona 3 is the game that connects with me, that I love, and is the one that will always connect to me. I've played this game at least 20 times, and I've never gotten sick of it, partially because of the two campaigns of P3P, but also because it's a game that I simply WANT TO PLAY MORE OF. Even if I've seen these cutscenes so many times, they still connect with me every single time. And honestly... Minato is a character that's never been seen SINCE Persona 3, because he's kinda dead, but I really want to see how Sakurai would make his moveset work. As well, more Persona songs is NEVER a bad thing. But honestly... I want Minato in Smash so that other people will want to play Persona 3 and maybe experience a game that connects with them. Persona 3 is a game that deserves more recognition and that I want more people to play, and Minato in Smash would give people that opportunity.

Also, I wouldn't have to look at the worst looking version of Mementos when I want to play Battle For Everyone's Souls.

That's nice.

Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Damn it... I knew this wouldn't receive GREAT scores... but come on? Why is everyone givin my boi 0% on want?
Whatever.
Also I'm spoiling Persona 3 btw.
I'd, uh, spoiler-tag your spoiling of P3? In a spoiler-thing?

I totally get your love of P3 though. It is a great game. I hope they remake it one day, both so that more people can play it and so that I never have to witness a "Which version of P3 is better?" debate ever again...
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Damn it... I knew this wouldn't receive GREAT scores... but come on? Why is everyone givin my boi 0% on want?
I feel you, Riesz got plenty of 0s as well. Though for Door-kun, I'd say already having a Persona rep in really drags him down.
Anyway I'm curious, you love Persona 3 that's easy to tell, but what do you think of P3P and P3FeMC overall? Did you connect to those too? I haven't seen you mention her (despite her popularity) despite voting up her male counterpart, so I was wondering. Not that she has much of a shot either.
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
that debate has always annoyed me.
Also I can see Female Protagonist in an world and not a visual novel thin, so yes.
Atlus, please remake Persona 3. Throw in the two protagonists, with a version of The Answer for each, and some gameplay updates, and we got a great game.

I feel you, Riesz got plenty of 0s as well. Though for Door-kun, I'd say already having a Persona rep in really drags him down.
Anyway I'm curious, you love Persona 3 that's easy to tell, but what do you think of P3P and P3FeMC overall? Did you connect to those too? I haven't seen you mention her (despite her popularity) despite voting up her male counterpart, so I was wondering. Not that she has much of a shot either.
I like her, but don't connect with her nearly as much as Minato.
Minato connects with me because he's very similar to me. His general laziness and depression, his loss of his parents... His attitude towards people... it's very similar to me.
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
You know, I was thinking about something. Should I actually include the ARMS reps in the same league with the other characters, since ARMS is confirmed and it's just a matter of who? I think, I'm gonna give the ARMS reps a separate league!

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%), Deep Red is Pipe Dream (2%), and anything below that is Black tier, Hopeless. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

  1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
  2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
  3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
  4. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 53.64% Chance
  5. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
  6. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
  7. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
  8. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
  9. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance
  10. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
  11. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
  12. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
  13. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
  14. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
  15. 2B: 35.41% Chance
  16. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
  17. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
  18. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
  19. Concept: New Zelda character: 26.20% Chance
  20. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
  21. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
  22. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
  23. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series (not counting ARMS, as it's gonna get one soon)
  24. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
  25. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
  26. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
  27. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
  28. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
  29. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
  30. Rex: 17.52% Chance
  31. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
  32. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
  33. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
  34. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
  35. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
  36. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
  37. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
  38. Chun-Li: 11.01% Chance
  39. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
  40. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
  41. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
  42. Alucard: 9.29% Chance
  43. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
  44. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
  45. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
  46. Elma: 6.48% Chance
  47. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
  48. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
  49. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
  50. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
  51. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
  52. Midna: 4.33% Chance
  53. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
  54. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
  55. Gex: 3.91% Chance
  56. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
  57. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
  58. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
  59. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
  60. Sirfetch'd: 2.99% Chance
  61. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
  62. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
  63. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
  64. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
  65. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 1.66% Chance - 34.17% Want
  66. Hornet: 1.45% Chance
  67. Segata Sanshiro: 1.30% Chance - Only character rated to not technically come from a video game
  68. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
  69. Falinks: 1.00% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
  70. Gnar: 0.89% Chance
  71. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
  72. Bubsy: 0.21% Chance - Least likely character

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (50+%), Denim? I dunno what this color is, but it represents the new Well-Liked tier (40+%), (Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

  1. (Nintendo, The Legend of Zelda) Concept: New Zelda character: 80.41% Want - Most wanted Fighter concept, most wanted set of characters from Japan/first party/repped series
  2. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted individual character character, most wanted third party, most wanted western character
  3. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
  4. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 74.72% Want
  5. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
  6. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
  7. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
  8. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
  9. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
  10. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
  11. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
  12. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
  13. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
  14. Dante: 64.23% Want
  15. 2B: 64.09% Want
  16. Geno: 62.93% Want
  17. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
  18. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
  19. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
  20. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
  21. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
  22. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
  23. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
  24. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
  25. Alucard: 58.63% Want
  26. Chun-Li: 57.30% Want
  27. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
  28. Midna: 57.17% Want
  29. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
  30. Sora: 54.44% Want
  31. Shantae: 54.28% Want
  32. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
  33. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
  34. Rayman: 52.35% Want
  35. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
  36. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
  37. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
  38. Rex: 50.95% Want
  39. The Knight: 50.12% Want
  40. Hornet: 49.09% Want
  41. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
  42. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
  43. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
  44. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
  45. Segata Sanshiro: 43.27% Want
  46. Gex: 42.50% Want
  47. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
  48. Sirfetch'd: 40.64% Want
  49. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
  50. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
  51. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
  52. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
  53. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
  54. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 34.17% Want
  55. The Blob: 28.88% Want
  56. Falinks: 28.44% Want
  57. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
  58. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
  59. Crypto: 27.63% Want
  60. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
  61. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
  62. Thrall: 26.50% Want
  63. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
  64. Tracer: 22.73% Want
  65. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
  66. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
  67. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
  68. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
  69. Urshifu: 16.46% Want
  70. Gnar: 12.67% Want
  71. Bubsy: 8.79% Want - Least wanted character

Chance is the only factor in determining ranking, but in the event of a chance tie I'll use want as the tiebreaker.
  1. Spring Man: 49.76% Chance, 62.54% Want
  2. Ribbon Girl: 43.91% Chance, 57.15% Want
  3. Ninjara: 30.33% Chance, 53.68% Want
The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe reps, and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.
  1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
  2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
  3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview
  4. Riesz (Unrated for Volume 2 | Volume 1: 1.50% Chance, 39.75% Want) | Spirit Event
ARMS Takeaways: Spring Man has a higher want than both Ribbon Girl and Ninjara. Perhaps, busting both the Spirit and Assist Trophy promotion barriers could be why, as otherwise I'd have expected him to do worse than either of them for want. Ninjara is far behind Spring Man and Ribbon Girl both, likely as many don't see him as solo-character worthy for the most part. That being said, all of them did very well. Let's see if Min-Min and Twintelle can match up with them, and let's see how well the non-in-the-base-game gang can do. Ribbon Girl was the frontrunner for people who believed in Spirits, but not Assists. Who will be the frontrunner for team no-base-game-content?

Non-ARMS Takeaways: Bubsy FINALLY dethrones Hat Kid as the least likely newcomer. In fact, he has the unique combination of being the least likely AND least wanted. I give him the Good Riddance Award(?). People are begging for more Zelda, and I anticipate that if we did a 'Concept: Fire Emblem gets another rep' rating, it'd be the total reverse of this: extremely high chance (multiple 100%'s, even, mostly from defeatists scorned after Byleth), and giving Bubsy a run for his money in want. Though, Byleth might cause others to go "at least we're not gonna get another rep". Alucard and Sirfetch'd join the pipe dream crew, and a Devolver Digital rep doesn't exist, meaning it couldn't exactly do well.
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
also hey GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 can you tell me how Persona 3 is worse then the original?
I can see arguments for all of the others.. even 4... but how the f*** is Persona 3 worse then Persona?
 
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