Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

Sirfetch'd

Chance: 0.20%

Apparently this guy has some popularity? What? Is it mostly because of the memes? But anyway I look at it, I don't see this guy getting in over starters, legendaries, popular Pokemon like Toxtricity, or whatever Pokemon they might shill for the SW/SH DLC. He just seems random but he does get credit for existing despite being just a new version of a Gen 1 Pokemon that I guess had a fanbase because, again, this Pokemon exists.

Want: 15%

Like with a lot of characters of this caliber, he would be funny at first but there are so many Pokemon that would please more people and have much more interesting moveset potential. And that's another thing. Looking at the moves he can learn, there isn't much that convinces me that he would make for such a good addition over other Pokemon.

Prediction: Assist Trophy becomes playable - 50%
This day is going to be split down the middle. There are still a lot of people that, for some reason, still deny that assist trophies can become playable. Get ready to prepare your arguments because this is going to be a mighty interesting day for sure.

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sirfetch'd

Chance: 0.01%
Once again, the question is what makes this Pokemon so special that it would be chosen over every other Pokemon? The answer is not much, sure it's a little popular, but I don't really see any strong movement for it in Smash.

Want: 0%
I regret that I wasn't able to make in time to rate Falinks (was super busy that day), so I'll make it up here. 10 Pokemon in the game is good enough. More than good enough. We really don't need anymore. The series is already guaranteed to get a character every single game, let other starving series have a pick if you're going to add a character from an already represented series.

Noms:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x5

 

[BowserKing]

Sirfetch'd

Chance: 15%. Sirfetch'd is quite a popular Pokémon that has some unique moves compared to other Pokémon. However, there is competition between other Pokémon, and the starters are more likely to show up, but it is not impossible. What we do know is that this Pokémon has a decent chance to appear in the sequels.

Want: 75%. I have not played Pokémon Sword (I have gotten Pokémon shield instead). However Sirfetch'd would be a fun Pokémon to play as. While I can see Sirfetch'd face off against Ike, Cloud and Meta Knight (amount others) in a free for all, I can see this Pokémon have some great potential of moveset s as well. Overall, Sirfetch'd would be a fun addition to the Roaster.

Prediction: Assist Trophy becomes playable (15%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon promotion and 3 for Meowth

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I... haven't caught Sirfetch'd yet, so I don't know what it's capable of. That being said, it's easily one of my favorite gen 8 Pokemon.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Sirfetchd
Chance: 0%
Cinderace is the most likely Pokemon DLC newcomer. Sirfetchd really has nothing in his favor. Nintendo would only pick him if they wanted a

Want: 8%
The introduction of Sirfetchd was pretty exciting. For ages nothing had been done with Farfetchd, and him finally getting an evolution was unexpected. I think it's decent in it's own right, but I'm not putting it anywhere in my top ten list. It's alongside Cinderace as one of the less offensive potential Gen 8 reps.

Prediction for Assist Trophy becomes Playable: 36.62%

Nomination: Kratos x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Alucard pre-Sirfetch'd

[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x125
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x125
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x120
Axel Stone x115
Junko & Monokuma x110
Earthworm Jim x110
Concept: DLC music packs x100
Concept: Level-5 rep x100

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x88
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x85
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Meowth x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x73
Guardian (Destiny) x70
Ahri (League of Legends) x67
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x63

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Terra Branford x40
[Rerate] Steve x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x39
[Rerate] Kratos x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Gordon Freeman x25
Dr. Eggman x25

Under 25

Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Frank West x20
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x15
Stage: Bowser's Castle x13
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Fulgore x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Axel Stone beats up Junko & Monokuma and moves up to fourth place (pretty fitting for today). Earthworm Jim ties with Junko & Monokuma for fifth.

Gordon Freeman and Dr. Eggman escape the under 25 club.

Your newcomers for today are Takamaru, Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise, and Concept: Darkstalkers rep, all with 5 noms.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Sirfetch’d

Chance: 2%
I really don’t see a minor version exclusive Pokémon getting in, unless Sakurai was just absolutely awestruck by the amazing design Sirfetch’d and thought his sword and shield combo was a good representation of SwSh.

Want: 80%
Legitimately Sirfetch’d is one of my favorite designs for a Pokémon, he’s hilariously smug and and the leek weapons are fun. I would have no problems with him being in the game and I love to have him, but I also be completely fine with him missing out in Smash.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Alucard pre-Sirfetch'd

[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x125
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x125
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x120
Axel Stone x115
Junko & Monokuma x110
Earthworm Jim x110
Concept: DLC music packs x100
Concept: Level-5 rep x100

100 - 51

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x88
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x85
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Meowth x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x73
Guardian (Destiny) x70
Ahri (League of Legends) x67
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x63

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Terra Branford x40
[Rerate] Steve x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x39
[Rerate] Kratos x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Gordon Freeman x25
Dr. Eggman x25

Under 25

Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Frank West x20
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x15
Stage: Bowser's Castle x13
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Fulgore x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Axel Stone beats up Junko & Monokuma and moves up to fourth place (pretty fitting for today). Earthworm Jim ties with Junko & Monokuma for fifth.

Gordon Freeman and Dr. Eggman escape the under 25 club.

Your newcomers for today are Takamaru, Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise, and Concept: Darkstalkers rep, all with 5 noms.

Oh dear. We may not be done with Pokemon just yet if that keeps up.

 

[Deleted member]

Sirfetch'd

Chance: 0%

Ultimate makes me realize how a good portion of the playable Pokemon are closer to humanoids than actual animals. Honestly, Sirfetch'd screams Poke Ball Pokemon rather than a playable character in that regard and will probably be 1 in the next Smash game or if Sakurai and his team decides to add more Pokemon to it. I just don't see this happening really.

Want: 11%

I don't really have a strong opinion on how I'd feel about a Gen 8 Pokemon coming to Vol 2, but I do know I wouldn't really care about Sirfetch'd all so much. There really isn't much for me to want to see this Pokemon in Smash, and that's pretty much all I can say right now.
----------------
Predictions
ATs becoming Playable - 45%
----------------
Noms:
Lu Bu x5

 

[Perkilator]

Ssss…yeah, I had a feeling Sirfetch’d would be slammed with 0’s.

 

[Calamitas]

If he ends up making it in, do you think he'll be leeked?

Chance: 2%
I honestly really don't know what to say here that hasn't already been brought up not just by me, but by everyone else with regards to any Generation 8 Pokémon. Sword and Shield already a Spirit event, the Pokémon series tends to moreso get starters these days than anything else, but Sirfetch'd has some popularity. That's all I can really think off.

Want: 35%
Eh, I think Sirfetch'd be alright. But again, I'm lukewarm on Sword and Shield at best.

Prediction for Assist Trophy becomes playable: 43.5%

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily first party x5.

 

[warpenguin55]

Sirfetch'd

Chance: 10%
It's 2 of Sakurai's fetishes rolled up into 1. Swordfighters & Pokemon! Seriously though, I can see Sirfetch'd working in smash easily. It's probably the 5th most likely gen 8 pokemon behind the starters and Toxtricity.

Want: 70%
Sirfetch'd was clutch for me in Sword. I was going to cut it from the team and only had with me to fill a slot, but Sirfetch'd performed so well that I couldn't justify doing that.

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Drason]

Sirfetch'd, Knight of the Fetch. Defender of Horrible Tasting Vegetables.

Chance: 15%
I can see them going for a Pokemon Rep considering all the controversies and this could stir up more positive interest. It's also one of those meme picks which makes it way more likely it's going to end up as a Mii costume. Although it's also a Pokemon that received widespread acclaim upon reveal

Want: 100%
I want there to be a Final Smash where he flies in and just bombards the opponents with Brave Bird like attacks. Like a Cucco from Zelda. That would be funny

 

[Ridrool64]

Kweh

Chance: Yeah this isn't happening. 0%. We're not getting a base game Pokémon SwSh rep, not after the Spirit Event. If we get one, it's Urshifu or Calyrex. Even if Pokémon is a special exception, then why this and not another Galarian Pokémon? Sirfetch'd's best chance to get in is as a Pokéball Pokémon next time.

Want: I'll abstain from this one since, I think I'll just wait for the general Generation 8 rep to give my thoughts. Sirfetch'd would, however, be a little random for my liking and I'd like it simply because it's not conventionally marketable the way most Gen 8 reps in consideration are.

DLC Music x 5. The Assist Trophy day is gonna be divisive. Personally, I predict 37.84%.

 

[Garteam]

Anime Swordsduck

Chance - 0.5%
There's no guarantee we'll be getting a Galar Pokemon and, even if we do, Sirfetch'd seems like a rather out there option. There's really no evidence the Pokemon Company is interested in it in any significant way. It's doesn't play a big role within Sword/Shield or the new anime, it's just another Pokemon. As such, Sakurai would really have to see something in Sirfetch'd moveset wise which I really don't think is there. He's a standard knight but instead of a sword, he has a vegetable.

Want - 20%
I didn't play Sword/Shield, but I wouldn't mind Sirfetch'd as far as Gen 8 Pokemon goes. At least he's not a starter, so he'd be a breath of fresh air in that regard.

Prediction: Assist Trophy Promotion - 58.6%
Tomorrow's gonna be contentious. A lot of very high and very low scores are basically guaranteed, but I think Spring Man will skew the results relatively high.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I can see them going for a Pokemon Rep considering all the controversies and this could stir up more positive interest.

If there's anyone that can take a controversial topic and make it universally accepted, it's not the Smash fandom.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable.

Predict Minato Arisato from the Persona series.

Day will probably end around Saturday morning.

Megadoomer

-----

Here are four songs relating to some popular AT promotion candidates. We rated a fair amount of them already over the past few days (Spring Man, Alucard, Zelda characters) hence why those characters aren't included in the below songs:

Spoiler: Assist Trophy Music

I know Bomberman Hero isn't the most popular game in the series but I'm not gonna throw away any chance at posting Redial.

 

[DaUsername]

Should have been introduced 7 generations ago
Chance: 1%
It's a Gen 8 Pokémon and a swordfighter! That should add up to 160%, right? But seriously, I don't think this guy is that likely. It just doesn't seem like the kind of Pokémon they'd add, mainly because it doesn't seem to have a major role in the anime, which as we know is all that matters.
Want: 0%
As I've said before, I don't want another Pokémon newcomer. Some other Nintendo franchises should get some time to shine.

AT prediction: 40%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokémon x5 (sorry)

 

[Perkilator]

Only 1 more month until the moment of truth
Chance: Just about any
People thought that if any character through any series was represented solely through an Assist Trophy, ARMS characters at all would be impossible. Now that we know the character is from ARMS, only way we’ll know if Assist Trophies can be promoted in the same game is to wait until June.

Want: 0%
I‘ve talked about this before, but I don’t want Sakurai to throw away all the hard work he and his team did to create the Assist Trophy in the first place and work harder for no reason. Toggling the Assist Trophy to be disabled when you’re selecting them would only make the unnecessary extra work even worse, because as opposed to simply disabling it in a very specific stage (i.e. Knuckles is disabled on , and Alucard is disabled on Wii Fit Studio), you’d essentially be having to disable the Assist Trophy for EVERY SINGLE STAGE. ALL (soon to be) 109 OF THEM. Just to not have the Assist Trophy for the same promoted Assist Trophy you’re playing as. If the character’s Spring Man in the end, he should at least have his Assist Trophy spot given to Springtron, nothing more.

Does this mean I don’t want an Assist promotion ever? Of course not, I’d LOVE to eventually play as Shadow or Zero or Shovel Knight or Alucard, if at all possible. But I’m not willing to see Sakurai go through unnecessary extra work to realize those dreams, even though I’d respect him for it.

Now granted, there’s no rule that Assist Trophies can only be promoted in future games, but…that’s how I want it to stay. I sincerely apologize to anyone who doesn’t take kindly to this post. I only wanted to get my thoughts out.

Oh, right, Minato-San: 2%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Tropgies (speak of the devil) x5

 

[Ridrool64]

So why are they still Assist Trophies and not Assist Spirits?

Chance: Actually, I'm feeling pretty good about this one. 75%. This is mostly being carried by Waluigi, who might get a huge shot in the arm if the next character is Spring Man. But make no mistake, Spring Man himself is the one walking so others are running. And beyond that, there are a good few popular Assist Trophy candidates, such as Ashley, Isaac and formerly-but-after-Byleth-not-anymore Lyn. I doubt Zero is in the running but he's popular too, and Shadow has more than just his Assist Trophy holding him back but he's popular too. All of these characters, being popular, make money which is why Nintendo would put them in. Pretty much all of them have something unique going for them for a moveset, which would get Sakurai's attention. But more than that, I think that in these trying times, a character who already has some work done on them is already much further ahead than characters who use others for their base, or even characters they'd have to make from scratch. It's simply easier to work with them since, you already have the ground work done. For some like Waluigi and Isaac, it's part of the basic moveset. Meanwhile, Lyn and Shadow have easy Final Smash candidates. Overall I think this is their best shot yet.

That being said, if the next character isn't Spring Man but is from ARMS "1" in design and identity? Then there's no way we're getting any.

Want: 45%. Should be higher, but that includes Shadow, Knuckles, Rodin and Akira Yuki who I'm giving the stink-eye. Singlehandedly tank the score. But besides them, there's nobody who I particularly care about who got Assisted, except Shovel Knight and Alucard (the latter of whom still, sadly, doesn't stand a chance). And frankly, if Chrom can be a Final Smash and a Fighter at the same time, then I don't give a flying **** if a promoted Assist gets themselves out of an Assist Trophy capsule. Who cares?

Yuki... no way he gets in. 3.00% on the dot. DLC Music x 5.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Assist Trophy Promotions

Chance: 10% - I'm gonna uphold a "dirty, unsophisticated, immature fan rule" and put some logic into it. For the longest time being an assist trophy meant no playable status for that game, and we do have precedent for it. None of 4's assists were promoted, so we have a precedent for no assists being promoted during "unplanned during base game development" DLC. A lot of existing assist trophies have little to market as well, so I don't see a lot of precedent for Nintendo to promote any of them unless they're a fan favorite like Shadow, Waluigi, or Isaac, for a Banjo-esque decision. Still, now that we have the ARMS rep coming and the very real possibility of our first promotion with Spring Man, it all hinges on what we get from there. But as of now, while it COULD happen, it still hasn't, and isn't likely given current conditions. Precedents are still a thing, and while they CAN be broken, we shouldn't assume they will. That's something a lot of people seem to forget.

Also while Nintendo is no stranger to making unpopular decisions, Spring Man's promotion could actually be a point of contention. We have popular assist trophies who've been waiting a long time like Waluigi, Isaac, and Shadow. having them get passed up for a character that was added as an assist then immediately promoted within the same game would not sit well with a lot of people. Especially since, while representing a new IP, Spring man would be a marketing pick.

Want: Varies depending on the character - Despite my views, if promotions do happen there are plenty of characters I would love to see, and here's hoping it's an assist trophy that's been waiting a long time being given a chance to shine!

Would LOVE to see promoted:
Waluigi
Knuckles
Shadow
Elec Man
Krystal
Starfy


Would like to see promoted:
Isaac (I don't care much for Golden Sun but his fans have been waiting a long time)
Bomberman
Chef Kawasaki (after Bandana Dee and Adeleine)
Ghiraham
Tingle
Skull Kid
Midna
Mr. Resetti
Nikki
Riki
Dr. Wily


Neutral:
Spring Man
Akira
Alucard
Andross
Black Knight
Barbara
Lyn
Dillon
Devil
Ghosts (Would rather see another Namco rep, preferably Prince of All Cosmos from Katamari)
Grey Fox
Guile
Hammer Bro
Helirin
Jeff
Jill
Kapp'n
Lakitu
Knuckle Joe
Magnus
Nightmare
Ray Mk III
Rodin
Saki
Samurai Goroh
Shovel Knight
Squid Sisters
Takamaru
Zero


Should stay an assist:
Ashley (Would rather see Captain Syrup as another Wario-specific rep, since Wario himself is almost completely WarioWare focused, along with most of his content)
Burrowing Snagret (HUGE Pikmin fan but if we get another Pikmin rep I'd much rather see Louie)
Tiki (We don't need another Modern Fire Emblem Rep)
Color TV Game 15
Dr. Kawashima
Dr. Wright
Excitebikes
Flies & Hand
Infantry and Tanks
Moon
Kat & Ana (Same reasons as Ashley)
Klaptrap (Would rather see Dixie Kong)
Metroid (Stylux would make a better next Metroid rep)
Mother Brain
Nintendog
Phosphora
Rathalos
Sable Prince
Sheriff
Sukupon
Starman
Thwomp
Vince
Yuri




Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5

Predictions:
Minato Arisato - 2.21%

 

[Garteam]

The assister become the assisted

Chance - 90%
I know this is very high, but hear me out.

Until recently, I was pretty pessimistic on the chances of Assist Trophies could get promoted. Unlike spirits, who are really just JPGs that have an event battle tied to them, Assist Trophies play a far more active role in gameplay by physically appearing and being capable of taking damage. There's really nothing saying an Assist Trophy couldn't be promoted (and the ability to disable certain assist trophies when conditions are met ensures assists won't be fighting their playable counterparts), but it seemed like a much higher bar to clear than a trophy or spirit promotion.

However, the announcement of an ARMS character basically changed my entire view on all of this.

I'm very, very confident Spring Man will be the ARMS character in some form, be it as a solo act, an alt in a greater collection of characters, or even with a bonus echo. Of all 35 universes with a playable character in Smash Ultimate, the first character added was either the protagonist or mascot of their series. This makes a lot of sense for any crossover, as you want the character that will make the most people go "Cool, they got the guy from (insert franchise here)". In the case of ARMS, Spring Man is undeniably this character: he's centre stage on just about every piece of art with the full ARMS cast, he was one of the first two characters revealed for the game, and he's the focus of Dark Horse Comic's upcoming ARMS graphic novel.

As such, I'm gonna give the possibility of an Assist Trophy promotion the same rating I gave Spring Man on his day: 90%. If Nintendo avoids Spring Man when choosing the ARMS character, its basically curtains for anyone else unfortunate to be in that capsule. If Spring Man gets in, then that's that, Assist Trophy promoted. How many Assist Trophies will get promoted is a little more up in the air. I could see Spring Man being the sole upgrade, but I could also see Nintendo throwing in one or two more characters a bone (most likely Waluigi and Issac given their popularity).

Want - Abstain
There's really too many characters for me to give a good numeral estimate on how Assist Trophies would make me feel. For example, I'd love to see Shadow, have mixed feelings on Zero, and welcome Lyn about as much as food poisoning. That being said, I am happy to see some new character options spice up speculation.

Minato Arisato Prediction - 1.87%
The lack of multiple, non-echo characters for any third party series and his Mii costume is really, really going to hurt his chances. I'm imagining a lot of goose eggs tomorrow, which is a shame. Minato's a cool character.

 

[Jomosensual]

Assist Trophy Promotions

Chance 60 - Think there's a real shot. Going to get this out of the way now though, I do not expect more than 1 due to how many popular characters Nintendo could choose to promote. Here's who I think are legit upgrade options

Waluigi
Issac
Spring Man(for obvious reasons)
Alucard

Outside of those I think nobody else has a shot. Shovel Knight is an indie, Shadow is probably better as an echo and it we're not getting stand alone echos, Bomberman is behind Alucard as a AT from it's own company, Ashley isn't even in the same universe of requests as Issac and Wauligi and I don't think Warioware is important enough to get another rep, Lyn and Tiki are too retro FE to be in, Krystal isn't getting in because Star Fox getting 4 reps seems like way too much for the state the series is in, and the rest are either don't have moveset potential, don't make sense, or are too irrelevant.

(This is the part where I inevitably forget someone obvious and wake to to 5 replies telling me so)

Anyways, back on subject, I think it's an interesting point. How much money does it cost to get one of those 4 in the game? Probably not a lot. How much content can come with them? Arms has basically nothing and we know stuff is coming. Waluigi has some stuff but with the sheer number of Mario games out there there's got to be stuff that's not in yet. Golden Sun has two tracks, a mii costume, and a bunch of spirits. Overall I think it's probably one of the Nintendo 3 here.

Most of my chance score relies on Spring Man's huge shot right now. If they pick someone that's not him, especially if they go with someone who isn't a spirit I think the chance falls to under 5 percent, because that clearly shows their hand for me. If it's a spirit than who knows. If it's Spring Man and there's a Spring Tron replacement fighter I think that puts Waluigi in a tough spot because IDK who would fill in for him. If it's just straight up Spring Man I think there's a chance that we can get one more but one more only. The pass isn't going to be 50% percent upgraded characters so it's kinda a double edge sword. Does Spring Man getting in help Issac or Waluigi or really hurt them? If you want one of the latter two do you hope it is or isn't him? I don't know.

Anyways I'm rambling, so a TLDR version is that there's only so many it could be, Spring Man is the run away favorite out of all of them, and if we get a non AT or spirit character as our arms rep things look very bad

Want 60 - Wouldn't hate it as long as its not someone stupid. Waluigi, Issac, and Alucard all feel deserving and if Spring Man is our Arms rep, while that's not the most interesting option it isn't really a bad one. If it's someone other than them it might take a little convincing. Although, I might get excited for someone like Takamaru or Samurai Goroh since they've been ATs for so long that it would just feel kinda cool.

Predictions
Minato - This is the Persona 3 protag right? Going 2% if so

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Assist Trophies: "I am inevitable"

Chance: 70%

Looking at the situation with ARMS, I think this will finally happen. Smash Ultimate has been about fulfilling fan requests and this is the time to break this fan rule. So many popular and long-term requests are assist trophies. Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, Bomberman, Alucard, Shovel Knight, etc. These are characters that have a lot of fans and they all have great reasons to be playable. Fan favorites, gaming icons, great moveset potential, and great representations of their franchises. Assist trophies are the second biggest role in the game, only behind playable status. If Sakurai really wants to please the fans, he will upgrade at least one or two assist trophies.

Now let me tackle some common counterarguments.

"Upgrading the assist trophies will undo the work put into them."

Um no. If anything this is actually an incentive for the Smash team to upgrade assist trophies. They already have a model and some animations to work with. Thus it would save them time and resources. Plus if they really wanted to keep the assist trophies they can either have the assist trophy not appear when the character is being played as or maybe the assist trophy can be replaced by someone else who can also perform the same action as that assist trophy (example: replacing Spring Man with Springtron).

"But that would require work and it would need to be implemented for all the stages."

To be fair I'm not a game designer, but I imagine there might just be a toggle for the assist trophies. While I don't have a source for this one, that also means that there isn't a source for this argument either.

"But why would they upgrade assist trophies in the same game?"

Money. We know that Nintendo and Sakurai are aware of Waluigi's demand and they probably know the extent of other character's popularity like Isaac whom they brought his assist trophy back after being absent for a game. If Nintendo sees the demand, they quite possibly will capitalize on that. Admittedly this is Nintendo we are talking about, but at the very least there is no reason why Nintendo wouldn't choose one or more of the assist trophies.

"Promoting an assist trophy within the same game will not sit well with people."

And why is that? If anything it will get people hyped because if a character that they want and assumed was previously deconfirmed ends up becoming playable, they will forgive them being an assist trophy because they got their favorite character(s) anyway.

Overall, I have yet to see a convincing argument as to why assist trophies can't become playable. I'm not saying it's a 100% guaranteed shot, but just because a character is already an assist trophy, doesn't mean that Nintendo and Sakurai can't upgrade them. It's their game after all. Right now, assist trophies have a better chance than ever.

Want: 100%

While none of my top 9 most wanted characters are assist trophies, there are a bunch of assist trophies I would love to be upgraded. Mostly the characters I mentioned in my first paragraph. It would be hyped to see them all officially back in contention and it will spice up speculation. I would go into the details of some of the characters, but I'm getting really tired. So apologies if something here didn't make sense.

Prediction: Minato - 1.50%

Noms: Frank West x5

I know I will probably get quoted a lot. I'm going to bed now so it will take until the morning time for me to reply to any messages for me.

 

[Ninjaed]

Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable

Chance: 1%
Never say never, especially when Sakurai can leave behind "rules" that are stifling creativity instead of enhancing it. Or we wouldn't have Ridley. Still, despite ARMS getting a fighter, to me ATs still mean "not playable". They're extra work that don't bring in any money, only recognition. But if the same character also becomes a fighter, then what was the point? There's a reason why ATs upgraded into fighters in the next instalment don't return as ATs. One could argue FP2 wasn't planned, but then why not real Spring Man? Why the mystery, if it's to default to poster boy? I don't see it, and with that, down goes the one biggest argument in favour of ATs becoming playable in FP2.

Want: depends
Like seriously. Nintendogs would get 0% while other characters like Isaac, Alucard or Lyn would get a much higher score. I wish we could get a few more ATs as (free please?) DLC , like Axel Stone. RENT A CAR!! (yeah I know he says "grand upper" but you can make him say almost anything really)

Predictions: Minato - 1%

Nominations: Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x5

 

[Sari]

Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable

Chance: 85%
Simply put, I think Spring Man is the most likely ARMS rep to get in so his promotion is inevitable in my eyes. I recently partook in a big ARMS discussion where I laid out my ideas of what the ARMS content will be which I'll talk more about that in the next scheduled ARMS rating.

Even when ignoring Spring Man, I still think it's super likely that we'll be getting a promotion for season 2. Waluigi and Isaac are both big names that Sakurai is aware of and since he said he isn't thinking about any future Smash games at the moment I can see him throwing in a fan favorite.

Want: 100%
Yes please! Waluigi, Bomberman, Ashley, and Lyn are some of my most wanted characters in Smash so of course I'm giving this score the highest rating. I would also love to see characters like Skull Kid, Midna, Spring Man, and Isaac make it in. They really can't go wrong with adding any of the most popular AT candidates.

Minato chance prediction: 2.50% (his fate is pretty much sealed with him being a Mii Costume and having to compete with Yu Narukami for a non-existent 2nd Persona slot)

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

I‘ve talked about this before, but I don’t want Sakurai to throw away all the hard work he and his team did to create the Assist Trophy in the first place and work harder for no reason. Toggling the Assist Trophy to be disabled when you’re selecting them would only make the unnecessary extra work even worse, because as opposed to simply disabling it in a very specific stage (i.e. Knuckles is disabled on , and Alucard is disabled on Wii Fit Studio), you’d essentially be having to disable the Assist Trophy for EVERY SINGLE STAGE. ALL (soon to be) 109 OF THEM. Just to not have the Assist Trophy for the same promoted Assist Trophy you’re playing as. If the character’s Spring Man in the end, he should at least have his Assist Trophy spot given to Springtron, nothing more.

I'm no game developer or anything, but tweaking the game so that an AT doesn't show up along with their playable counterpart would most likely require almost no effort at all. They'd probably just add some script like:

"When [Character] is in battle, do not spawn [Character's AT]"

I'm pretty sure this would take like... 10 minutes at the absolute most.

 

[amageish]

The Dawn of the Assist Trophies

Chance: Abstain. I'm not putting a number to this.

I don't see why base game content would restrict characters coming out years later. Assist Trophies would have their own challenges in development, but that'd also have their own advantages, given how models are already in the game. Moreover, Sakurai seems very aware that this will be the last Smash Bros like this, even if he's being careful and not calling it the last Smash Bros ever this time. I don't see him conciously thinking "Eh, we'll make this character wait for the next game" if Nintendo asked him to put an AT in.

That said, I also feel like an assist trophy upgrade would be just the same as any other character - I don't it as completely overhauling the system. If Spring Man reps ARMS, then I'm sure people will say "Oh, this confirms [insert other assist trophy here] too!". I don't agree with that logic. It reminds me of how there was a lot of "Oh, [insert third party character] is totally confirmed" after Joker's reveal. Like, Joker was a good sign for third-parties, but that doesn't mean he was a good sign for all third parties and that every request outside-of-the-box third party was guaranteed a slot in Smash... I doubt Sakurai has a list in his mind of a pecking order of assist trophies he would/would not upgrade. I think he just has characters he wants to include and some may happen to be assist trophies.

Want: Also Abstain. I, uh, wrote a lot of words for someone abstaining, didn't I...

Predictions: Min - ugh, nope, can't do it. I'll be the pretentious stickler to canon and call him Makoto Yuuki... Makoto gets a 2%.

Nominations: Level-5 Rep x 5

 

[3DSNinja]

Inevitable
Chance:99%:
Alright hear me out here. There are two AT's who are ridiculously likely to get in. And neither of them are Waluigi, lol. The first one is Spring Man, which I already have elaborated on. And then there's Isaac, who almost certainly has a new game/collection coming, as well as being a fan favorite, which makes him easily viable. Even beyond those two, Shadow is unlikely as hell but could still happen, Skull Kid is popular and represents a beloved game, Bomberman represents a beloved series and would abide by the new worlds theory if that's still a thing, and Zero is THE second Mega Man character. There is a very high likelyhood IMO of AT's being upgraded.
Want: 100%: Most of my most wanted are assist trophies, OF COURSE I WANT THIS. Between Shadow, Shovel Knight, Isaac, Waluigi, Skull Kid, Zero, Knuckles, Black Knight, Lyn, Midna, and Takamaru, this would be an awesome idea that I would love.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5
and also amageish his name is canonically Minato Arisato. Persona Q has his name as that, PQ2 doesn't have any name, and P3D is questionably canon. He's also not called Makoto Yuki in P5R, he's just called S.E.E.S. Boy.

 

[amageish]

and also amageish his name is canonically Minato Arisato. Persona Q has his name as that, PQ2 doesn't have any name, and P3D is questionably canon. He's also not called Makoto Yuki in P5R, he's just called S.E.E.S. Boy.

Um. Nope? PQ has an insert-a-name, just like PQ2 does. Arisato doesn't even fit in the name slot, which kind of sucks... P3D is canon in a vague-ass "It's in a dream and has literally no influence on anything" sense. When they use names and don't just let the player decide, they always use the anime names, not the manga ones - they've do so with every protagonist thus far. I get preferring the manga ones for sure - I mean, we really don't need three different characters named Makoto in the Persona franchise - but they aren't canon.

Welp. This probably isn't the argument people were anticipating on the day of rating Assist Trophy upgrades... Whoops! I'll be quiet now and save any more of this argument to the P3MC's day...

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

"Promoting an assist trophy within the same game will not sit well with people."

And why is that? If anything it will get people hyped because if a character that they want and assumed was previously deconfirmed ends up becoming playable, they will forgive them being an assist trophy because they got their favorite character(s) anyway.

Because if they decide to promote only one character, and said character is an AT that was added in Ultimate and promoted for marketing purposes, then fans of ATs that have been ATs since Brawl will not be happy that they've been skipped over yet again.

And then there's Isaac, who almost certainly has a new game/collection coming, as well as being a fan favorite, which makes him easily viable.

Both apply to Waluigi as well, who's GUARANTEED to get into another game in the near future, while Camelot could be working on anything right now. There were no leaks or anything pointing towards any kind of Golden Sun revival.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

the ultimate rule to break
Chance: 50%
Honestly, there's not much to say here for me. This is just really gonna hinge on wether Springman will be playable or not, which I also feel 50/50 on. If he is, even as one of multiple alts, this concept is confirmed. If he isn't, than it's looking very bad for all other requested Assist Trophy characters. Regardless, I'm only factoring in Springman here cause he's the only one that would be necessary for this concept. If I had to take upgrades after the Arms rep into account than that should've been specified.

Want: 95%
Having a major fanrule like this finally shattered would be nice but I'm not losing sleep over any character I slightly want already being an Assist. It's the whole Spirit debate I want to be over with. Tho I guess there is no AT who doesn't have a Spirit thinking about it.

Minato: 0.79%
Dr Eggman x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I‘ve talked about this before, but I don’t want Sakurai to throw away all the hard work he and his team did to create the Assist Trophy in the first place and work harder for no reason. Toggling the Assist Trophy to be disabled when you’re selecting them would only make the unnecessary extra work even worse, because as opposed to simply disabling it in a very specific stage (i.e. Knuckles is disabled on , and Alucard is disabled on Wii Fit Studio), you’d essentially be having to disable the Assist Trophy for EVERY SINGLE STAGE. ALL (soon to be) 109 OF THEM. Just to not have the Assist Trophy for the same promoted Assist Trophy you’re playing as. If the character’s Spring Man in the end, he should at least have his Assist Trophy spot given to Springtron, nothing more.

You've been told several times that you're very wrong about the development time that toggling off ATs when a fighter is playable is negligible. I'll have you know that incorrect sentences, when they've been corrected, are not counted.

Also, making a new texture or even model to replace an existing Assist Trophy is obviously more work anyway.

So why are they still Assist Trophies and not Assist Spirits?

Precedents are still a thing, and while they CAN be broken, we shouldn't assume they will.

Normally you might have a point with this stance, but given we have confirmation that the next character is an ARMS rep, the main character is an Assist Trophy, and yet he still shows up on the list of potential candidates, it just comes across as refusing to consider a very strong possibility at this point.

Assist Trophies: "I am inevitable"

Chance: 70%

Looking at the situation with ARMS, I think this will finally happen. Smash Ultimate has been about fulfilling fan requests and this is the time to break this fan rule. So many popular and long-term requests are assist trophies. Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, Bomberman, Alucard, Shovel Knight, etc. These are characters that have a lot of fans and they all have great reasons to be playable. Fan favorites, gaming icons, great moveset potential, and great representations of their franchises. Assist trophies are the second biggest role in the game, only behind playable status. If Sakurai really wants to please the fans, he will upgrade at least one or two assist trophies.

Now let me tackle some common counterarguments.

"Upgrading the assist trophies will undo the work put into them."

Um no. If anything this is actually an incentive for the Smash team to upgrade assist trophies. They already have a model and some animations to work with. Thus it would save them time and resources. Plus if they really wanted to keep the assist trophies they can either have the assist trophy not appear when the character is being played as or maybe the assist trophy can be replaced by someone else who can also perform the same action as that assist trophy (example: replacing Spring Man with Springtron).

"But that would require work and it would need to be implemented for all the stages."

To be fair I'm not a game designer, but I imagine there might just be a toggle for the assist trophies. While I don't have a source for this one, that also means that there isn't a source for this argument either.

"But why would they upgrade assist trophies in the same game?"

Money. We know that Nintendo and Sakurai are aware of Waluigi's demand and they probably know the extent of other character's popularity like Isaac whom they brought his assist trophy back after being absent for a game. If Nintendo sees the demand, they quite possibly will capitalize on that. Admittedly this is Nintendo we are talking about, but at the very least there is no reason why Nintendo wouldn't choose one or more of the assist trophies.

"Promoting an assist trophy within the same game will not sit well with people."

And why is that? If anything it will get people hyped because if a character that they want and assumed was previously deconfirmed ends up becoming playable, they will forgive them being an assist trophy because they got their favorite character(s) anyway.

Overall, I have yet to see a convincing argument as to why assist trophies can't become playable. I'm not saying it's a 100% guaranteed shot, but just because a character is already an assist trophy, doesn't mean that Nintendo and Sakurai can't upgrade them. It's their game after all. Right now, assist trophies have a better chance than ever.

Want: 100%

While none of my top 9 most wanted characters are assist trophies, there are a bunch of assist trophies I would love to be upgraded. Mostly the characters I mentioned in my first paragraph. It would be hyped to see them all officially back in contention and it will spice up speculation. I would go into the details of some of the characters, but I'm getting really tired. So apologies if something here didn't make sense.

Prediction: 1.50%

Noms: Frank West x5

I know I will probably get quoted a lot. I'm going to bed now so it will take until the morning time for me to reply to any messages for me.

Can we just have this post pinned every time we rate an Assist Trophy?

They're extra work that don't bring in any money, only recognition. But if the same character also becomes a fighter, then what was the point?

Money, and also recognition. And good PR.

Because if they decide to promote only one character, and said character is an AT that was added in Ultimate and promoted for marketing purposes, then fans of ATs that have been ATs since Brawl will not be happy that they've been skipped over yet again.

"We shouldn't do this because fans will not be happy" has never been Sakurai's ethos, clearly.

There were no leaks or anything pointing towards any kind of Golden Sun revival.

Eh, there are some strong copyright filings but this is really not the place for that. Head to the Isaac thread and they'll probably be more than happy to fill you in though.

 

[NintenRob]

Ah yes, the topic I boosted to the topic to everyones surprise (except good grief, I wanted to make sure it was OK, so I asked beforehand)

Spring Man Chance
65%
I think that's the score I gave Spring Man and as far as I'm concerned, this is all on him. For me personally, Spring Man is going answer this question. If we rate this concept again if Spring Man isn't the Character, I'm giving the it a 0. If they went out of their way to avoid adding the main character because he was an assist trophy, that would be it for me. Pack it up and go home. However I don't think that's what's going to happen. Spring Man just makes that much sense to me. It's a possibility but it's weird to me.

Skull Kid want 100%
Yes Skull Kid is my most wanted and he is an assist trophy, obviously I want this to happen. Majora's Mask has always had less content than all the other 3D Zeldas, with no music to call it's own, I want that change. I want proper Majora's Mask music. Also other assist trophies are great. I'd like to see Isaac get a bone thrown to them, they've always been pretty great and among the better fandoms. Even when one acts out, there's usually more to say that they're not like them. Bomberman is among the better Third parties if are getting then. And yeah, Waluigi would be fun even if he's not my first choice for a new Mario character. And if we get echoes as side DLC, Shadow would be good. And I'll admit I think Shovel Knight would have a decent shot to who I'd be okish about. I need to finish his game.

But it's mostly Skull Kid if I'm being honest

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction.... Who? 0%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Because if they decide to promote only one character, and said character is an AT that was added in Ultimate and promoted for marketing purposes, then fans of ATs that have been ATs since Brawl will not be happy that they've been skipped over yet again.

Yeah, because everything that Sakurai does is a crowd pleaser right?

/s

 

[MasterOfKnees]

AT Promotion:

Chance: 50% - Unlike a lot of other people, I'm not so sure that Spring Man will be our ARMS character, I kinda feel that if it was just him then they wouldn't have started playing this game of guess who with us in the first place. If Spring Man does become playable, I think it'll be because we get a Hero type character that includes several characters in one, but I'm not sure how likely that is considering the different characteristics of ARMS' characters (and I mean that as in I know very little about the franchise). I do think it's possible this will be broken with Spring Man, in fact I think this is the best chance we've ever had of seeing an AT be promoted within the same game, but I'm not as confident in the 'protagonists first' point as many others are.

If not Spring Man, then the only other potential AT I could see happen is Waluigi, as other ATs just aren't all that likely to begin with imo, so at that point it just becomes about rating his chances, which I think are pretty decent.

Want: 100% - The more potential characters we can discuss the better, and in terms of DLC discussions ATs have always posed big limitations. This would be great not just for the remaining DLC, but also for future Smash games, it would be a huge encouragement to keep supporting your most wanted characters regardless of which fate they might have suffered in the base game.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I'd rather wait and see on this one. Don't get me wrong, Spring Man has a lot going for him... but as noted by others, Sakurai isn't known for not doing something despite knowing fans would hate it.

Yes, people are still mad about Byleth. Yes, I have been harassed for liking him.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[BowserKing]

Assist Trophy becomes playable

Chance: 15%. Technically it depends on the fighter, but I think the most likely assists that would be playable are between Spring-Man, Shadow or Issac. But some like Nintendog or the Moon will not be playable for reasons. Of course there will be competition, but at least Spring-Man won't have as much. I am hoping some new assists could arrive as well.

Want: Depends on the fighter, but 100% for Shadow, Knuckles, Midna and Krystal. They would be fun to play as, and they have tons of potential. However, there are such things as assists that will remain as such, like the Nintendo and the Moon. Rathalos has already gotten a bonus role as a boss, which is already a great deal. Overall, assists becoming playable would help promote, but not all of them can be playable.

Prediction: Minato (5%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[Jomosensual]

Yes, people are still mad about Byleth. Yes, I have been harassed for liking him.

There's still people who burst into a fiery rage about Corrin so this doesnt surprise me

 

[BernkastelWitch]

There's still people who burst into a fiery rage about Corrin so this doesnt surprise me

I've seen people get death threats for even playing as Corrin so none of this would surprise me at all. Corrin and Byleth hate is likely gonna stick around for a long, long time I imagine.

 

[Proceleon]

Assist Promotion
I laugh, but let's entertain the idea of Spring Man just for the sake of it.

Chance: 6.7%
This is mathematically accurate. Despite everything going against him, he's one of 15 potential ARMS candidates so this is the most accurate percentage.

What can't it be Spring Man?
Because if they were just going to add him in, they would've said so right away. If they're keeping it a secret, clearly it's someone we won't expect.

But they showed him in the Direct.
They showed the entire cast because they were literally obligated to do so. If they'd not included the whole lineup, it would've been weird, so of course when talking about ARMS they'd show everyone. They can't NOT show everyone.

But rules can be broken.
SOME rules have, but only two major ones have to far: Trophies can't be Fighters, which was only applicable to previous games, and that a franchise already in Smash without a Fighter can't have a Fighter, because hey, ARMS is happening. Other rules haven't been broken yet, and we'll only know about Assists/Spirits depending on who the Fighter from ARMS is.

But they always add the protagonist/mascot first.
Not actually true. Ninten was the first Mother protagonist, not Ness, and Jigglypuff, Mewtwo and Pichu got in before Pokemon Trainer despite character switching being a thing in Melee. Heck, the main character of R.O.B.'s games is Professor Hector and I don't see him anywhere. And as Sakurai stated before, it doesn't matter whether they're significant or important or iconic, what matters is that they're fun to play, so he's going to have someone who's more fun than Spring Man.

Want: 5%
Really, the only reason most people want this to happen is for other ATs they want, which is kind of a weird way of thinking. I'd be happy that Krystal now has a slight chance, but just realistically, I don't think Sakurai's about to open a Pandora's box that the Smash fandom will REFUSE to EVER close. (Seriously, ya put the mere suggestion of something in fans' heads and it'll circle like a vulture forever.)

TL;DR: If Spring Man's the Fighter, then both Assists & Spirits can happen. If it's Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Min Min or Twintelle, then one of those options can happen. If it's neither, then neither can happen. I'd still say that if a rule isn't broken it's still true though.