Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

hmm another zelda character

chances: 5% i dont think its ever gonna happen again, not that i a pessimist

want: 100% the more zelda the better

 

[amageish]

Skull Kid is the only Zelda rep I see happening. He's popular, has a essy assist to replace, and represents a beloved game. Honestly though, BOTW2 rep ain't happening; promo chars aren't liked and Sakurai has never done one for Zelda...

Er. I feel like the argument "Sakurai has never done a promotional character for Zelda" is about as flimsy as the "Sakurai hasn't upgraded an assist trophy" argument that would disconfirm Skull Kid...

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Zelda is the only under rep'd series.

Xenoblade could use a 2nd rep and DK is still missing Dixie. So no.

 

[DanganZilla5]

hmm another zelda character

chances: 5% i dont think its ever gonna happen again, not that i a pessimist

want: 100% the more zelda the better

I think you need a little bit more than that for your scores to count at the end of the day. There is a two sentence requirement for both chance and want.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Er. I feel like the argument "Sakurai has never done a promotional character for Zelda" is about as flimsy as the "Sakurai hasn't upgraded an assist trophy" argument that would disconfirm Skull Kid...

I don't know if I'd say it's as flimsy, the Assist Trophy thing is on thin ice given the situation with ARMS. Whereas sadly, "Sakurai treats Zelda like ****" isn't something with an end in sight, yet.

 

[amageish]

I don't know if I'd say it's as flimsy, the Assist Trophy thing is on thin ice given the situation with ARMS. Whereas sadly, "Sakurai treats Zelda like ****" isn't something with an end in sight, yet.

True, but I don't see how Skull Kid would be an exception to this. Zelda is underrepresented (or over-represented via clone characters, if you'd rather) and you certainly could make the argument that Sakurai has had plenty of chances to represent Zelda better and passed up on every one (even though Nintendo is picking the DLC now). That'd be a fair, if pessimistic, argument against all Zelda newcomers.

I don't understand why Skull Kid in particular would be an exception to this though, especially as fan support for Zelda characters in Smash has been relatively splintered over the years (the rise and fall of Vaati demand comes to mind). If your argument is that Zelda characters are treated poorly, then I feel like a BotW2 rep would be the best bet, as those would be promotional picks that would have benefits for marketing that transcend fan demand. I don't get the "Sakurai has never has promoted a Zelda game before, so a BotW2 rep won't happen, but he'll totally upgrade this Assist Trophy he's passed over twice before and didn't even spend Direct time to reveal the return of in Smash Ultimate."

This isn't me roasting Skull Kid or anything - I do think he could happen - but I think he's basically hanging out with the rest of the Hyrule Warriors gang IMO.

 

[NintenRob]

Skull Kid I could see as an exception because the base game has already shown he's on their radar more then most other Zelda characters, aka: Mii Costume (and other stuff)

Also Happy 20th Anniversary to Majora's Mask.

 

[Garteam]

The franchise with the most merch at any EB Games

Chance - 15%

There's two Zelda characters I could see in Fighter's Pass #2, but both are pretty conditional.

First is Skull Kid. If upgrading Assist Trophies with an outcry for a playable role becomes a common theme in this pass, this bears somewhat well for Skull Kid. There was a relatively strong backlash when he was unveiled, which may've reached Nintendo's ears. However, he has competition with Waluigi and Isaac, both of which have a far greater demand to join the battle. As such, it's kinda tough to see him getting in over one of those two. It's even tougher to see 4 (assuming Spring Man is promoted) Assist Trophy promotions in one pack. As such, I don't feel comfortable giving him more than 5%.

Second is BotW Zelda. I know, I know, she was considered for the base game but was shot down for being more of a scholar than a fighter. However, BotW 2 shows her adventuring with Link in the one trailer we have, suggesting that she may be taking a much more proactive role this time around (possibly even getting a playable role to address the requests for a gender option in BotW 1?). As such, I could see her as this pack's promotional character, this time representing BotW 2. However, it's always kinda tough to predict who will fill the promotional role this early in the speculation cycle, seeing how we barely know what major releases are happening between now and the end of 2021. Hell, BotW 2 might not even be released by that time. Thus, I'm gonna give her a 10%, a little more realistic than Skull Kid but she has still has an uphill battle.

So, combine Skull Kid's 5% with BotW Zelda's 10%, you get a 15% chance for a Zelda character. Not great, but not impossible.

Want - 65%

If there's one reoccuring character from a legacy Nintendo franchise that I want in, it's Bandana Waddle Dee. However, I can definitely see the case for another Zelda character. While I don't think Zelda is very poorly represented in Smash (Zelda is more about the items and locations than the characters, so it makes sense that this would translate into Smash), Melee being the last game to get a fully unique Zelda character is somewhat sad. Plus, I like the idea of both Skull Kid and BotW Zelda. Skull Kid could be a trickster magician, while Zelda could use BotW's weapon types, champion abilities, and even runes to make a fun moveset.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Zelda Rep:

Chance: 5%.

I don't see this happening. We have gotten no new Zelda newcomer since Brawl, and no unique Zelda Newcomer since ****ing Melee. I don't see this changing. Sakurai tends to avoid one shot characters (that are not the main protagonist or Pokémon of the latest entry of a franchise) which is what the Zelda series is majorly composed of (outside of the triforce trio, Shiek is an exception to the norm). The only one i see not suffering this issue (outside of Ganon) is Impa, who is kinda just............there. I also would include Tingle (especially because he has own damn spinoff games) but he has faded out of the series lately, his last appereance was in Majora's Mask 3D if i remember correctly and that was a remake. Maybe the backlash did get to the developers i don't know.

Doesn't help the demand is really low. You never saw people going Skull Kid for Smash or Impa for Smash compared to the likes of K.Rool or Ridley, who also come from franchises who were seen as underrepresented and yet their demand was FAR more larger than any Zelda rep, which for me implies this is done for tokenism sake, rather than actual passion. For me in order to see a Zelda character beign a major candidate, there's a simple solution:

-More Zelda Spin Offs like Hyrule Warriors so that otherwise unused Zelda characters get more time to shine. Fighters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr don't usually appear in every Mario Mainline Platformer (Jr was not in 3D World and Rosalina was absent in 3D Land and Oddysey, but she was meant to appear) after their debuts, but major spin off franchises like Mario Kart and Mario Sports games help those character shine and be remembered. If Zelda got more spin off games, there would me more chances for these one-shots to be more developed, more exposed to new fans, which would raise their interest for the character in Smash, see Impa in Hyrule Warriors.

Want: Abstain.

I don't like rating reps, i like rating characters. I am in the majority that believes that Fire Emblem is oversaturated, but that doesn't mean im angry that it has more reps than Zelda or that it must be fixed immediately (even if i would prefer them over another FE character.). I had to wait until Ultimate for DKC to get 3 characters, and i still feel it's missing one character to be completed.

With Zelda i don't feel that way. The series has the basic characters. Im not against obscure characters or less recurrent characters but Zelda's cast isn't super appealing for me as Smash candidates. Midna? annyoing as hell and unlikable. Skull Kid? not against him , but not up for him either. Impa? Hyurle Warriors did something ineresing with the character, but mostly Impa is like the IG 88 of Zelda and there's no guarantee that the HW version will be the one that gets into Smash. These characters could be cool, im not against them (outside of Midna), but they aren't prioirity for me either. I don't feel the passion, and i don't exactly blame Sakurai for not having interest in them either.

The are only 3 exceptions to this. Ghirahim, who i actually thought was super interesing but ended up slowly fading away as one of the many Zelda one-off villains, Pig Ganon because I HATE Falcondorf and while Ultimate's version of him is slightly better, it's still a long way to go. But i would take compromise in Ganon based on His ALttp design with Trident included, that is just much cooler.

and lastly, Vaati. It would have been cool if he became a mainstay as the archnemesis of Toon Link (since he was the main antagonist in the Minish Cap), while the more traditional Zelda games sticked to Ganondorf, but nope, he was tossed aside as the rest. Shame.

 

[warpenguin55]

Xenoblade could use a 2nd rep and DK is still missing Dixie. So no.

OK, Zelda & Xenoblade are both under rep'd. Thats it though

 

[Mushroomguy12]

OK, Zelda & Xenoblade are both under rep'd. Thats it though

And DK still needs Dixie, as I said before.

 

[Diddy Kong]

DK needs Dixie, that I agree on. Very much so. But it's not like Zelda isn't overlooked either, and hasn't been for a very long time. Just because we got a bunch of new characters , half of them clones, in Melee, means we're set today. Toon Link was also basically a glorified "Luigi-fied" version of Young Link when he came around in Brawl, not quite unlike the chances done to other Melee clones as Falco and Ganondorf, and later on Roy when he came back as Smash 4 DLC.

I basically started the Impa support around here, because her role in Skyward Sword was amazingly deep, and she had a redesign, and has been with the franchise since the start. I wanted her to replace Sheik, and be a separate character , because I felt that made more sense than having Sheik on the roster as a standalone character. Turns out I was wrong, nobody bats an eye now.

I still would love to see Impa however. I feel she'd be an ideal newcomer in many ways. Shame her BotW role was simply unworkable for Smash. I still have hopes for her return in BotW2, but am not holding my breath too much for that. BotW had a Sheikah theme, I don't think the sequel will.

I'll rate the chance of a newcomer for Zelda at 50% right now. It has an upcoming new game, is a highly valued Nintendo franchise, Nintendo is handpicking the new characters, and I have a feeling the last character on the Fighter Pass could literally be the new Zelda character from BotW2 who we don't know of yet. Maybe it's Impa, as a younger warrior, maybe it's a total new character that's your partner , likewise as Fi and Midna where before.

Want? 100%

 

[Manabu]

the Zelda series is indeed underrepresented but I think that's mostly because other than our usual set of Link-Zelda-Ganon-Sheikr, their characters are not that important or trascendental for Nintendo, the bad luck of time it's also a factor when we consider that potential characters like Ravio have their game out when Smash is halfway in the developement and throughout the next entry their are forgotten or not that relevant.

Chances 15%

If we consider BoTW 2 announcemnt and inside sights can help to include a potential candidate there are chances, but it is still really uncertain as we lack of game repercussion within the medium

 

[GoodGrief741]

You never saw people going Skull Kid for Smash or Impa for Smash compared to the likes of K.Rool or Ridley, who also come from franchises who were seen as underrepresented and yet their demand was FAR more larger than any Zelda rep, which for me implies this is done for tokenism sake, rather than actual passion

That's very unfair. Sure, no Zelda character has reached the demand of K. Rool or Ridley, but who has? Lots of Zelda characters have varying degrees of popularity. K. Rool and Ridley also had the advantage of not having nearly as much intra-series competition as any Zelda character; the Zelda fanbase is highly splintered amongst many characters, so it's honestly incredible that some manage to still reach such levels of support.

And the lack of passion... Just, no. Don't go that way. I know that NintenRob and Zero Suit Violet are amongst the most dedicated thread managers I've seen, so I won't stand for such a dismissal of the dedication of them and so many other fans.

 

[NintenRob]

That's very unfair. Sure, no Zelda character has reached the demand of K. Rool or Ridley, but who has? Lots of Zelda characters have varying degrees of popularity. K. Rool and Ridley also had the advantage of not having nearly as much intra-series competition as any Zelda character; the Zelda fanbase is highly splintered amongst many characters, so it's honestly incredible that some manage to still reach such levels of support.

And the lack of passion... Just, no. Don't go that way. I know that NintenRob and Zero Suit Violet are amongst the most dedicated thread managers I've seen, so I won't stand for such a dismissal of the dedication of them and so many other fans.

Aww thanks so much, and Zero Suit Violet is definitely as big a Midna fan as I am a Skull Kid fan.

 

[Zero Suit Violet]

That's very unfair. Sure, no Zelda character has reached the demand of K. Rool or Ridley, but who has? Lots of Zelda characters have varying degrees of popularity. K. Rool and Ridley also had the advantage of not having nearly as much intra-series competition as any Zelda character; the Zelda fanbase is highly splintered amongst many characters, so it's honestly incredible that some manage to still reach such levels of support.

And the lack of passion... Just, no. Don't go that way. I know that NintenRob and Zero Suit Violet are amongst the most dedicated thread managers I've seen, so I won't stand for such a dismissal of the dedication of them and so many other fans.

Awwww, thank you so much for noticing, and taking the time to notify me here, it means a whole lot to me!
The Midna Support haven't been big here to be completely honest.. Mostly because I came after the war, and it was very hard to hit the reset button on a thread of an ATd character, so it definitely means a lot that people still notice my passion!

But yeah, while here it isn't working much, on GameFaqs, Twitter or Discord we have such an active community (especially Discord, can't be prouder of my server), that I can guarantee you, and anyone else who doubt it.. Midna fans are still here, and they still want our Twilight Princess in Smash hehe!
I hope the SmashBoard thread will take off some days, and I can rally more fans of this character I'm so passionate about, but in the meantime, I'll continue to do my best for all the people that ARE there already to support this character we both love hehe

Thank you again for notifying me!

 

[Wunderwaft]

New Zelda rep

Chance: 30%
I'm not seeing it. With how Nintendo seems to be handling DLC I doubt we'll get a new Zelda character. Sure, BotW 2 is coming soon in the future, but the fact that the game received a mii costume if you bought the second pass makes me think that's all what the game will get. Stranger things have happened so I'm still keeping an open mind about it. But at the end of the day I wonder if Zelda's curse will be broken and we'll get a new character as DLC.

Want: 90%
While I admit this depends on who the Zelda character is, the fact that there are so many likeable characters that are possible is enough to raise this to 90%. I love Midna and Skull Kid and I think these two are the best possible Zelda characters we might get. I think Tingle is hilarious and his games were fun to play. I respect the long legacy of Impa and Pig Ganon and I can see the potential they can bring. So yeah, I'm open for a new Zelda character.


Prediction: Alucard 14.6%
Nomination: Kratos x5

 

[fogbadge]

I think you need a little bit more than that for your scores to count at the end of the day. There is a two sentence requirement for both chance and want.

really? ive gotten away with it before

 

[YoshiandToad]

Zelda character chances
Chance: 5%
Zelda...isn't actually that popular in Japan from what I understand. Kirby appears to be the unofficial third best seller there alongside Mario and Pokemon.

There's a lot of outcry from western fans for more Zelda, but we also have a few issues in not knowing WHO that next big character should be.

Impa, Vaati, Ganon, Tetra and Tingle are reoccurring characters but each comes with their own set of problems.

Impa's design varies greatly between young female warrior and elderly grandmother chieftan and until Hyrule Warriors and Skyward Sword she was a largely ignored character with very few fans.

Vaati meanwhile despite being the second most reoccurring antagonist after Ganon is in the same boat as Geno in that he's partially owned by a different company(Capcom in this case) which makes things trickier.

Ganon is the real main villain but since his human form is in the game and he's a FS, that's good enough for most fans. Plus he's another form of Ganondorf...some fans don't know if we need three Links, two Zeldas and two Ganons representing Zelda in it's entirity.

Tetra is...Toon Zelda. In Smash we already have three Links and two Zeldas out of a possible six characters...adding yet another Zelda isn't great variety, even if Tetra is the coolest Zelda to date.

Tingle is easily one of the most recognised Zelda characters out there, popular with the Japanese and European fans with even his own string of game titles and was the second player in Wind Waker via Tingle Tuner...but he's so unpopular in America that he stopped appearing in the mainline games to avoid upsetting the main Zelda fanbase.

Then you have the popular one offs, these characters tend to be more well remembered than the likes of Impa and Vaati, but they don't represent Zelda as a whole very well:

Skull Kid, Midna and Ghirahim, all of whom are Assist Trophies at current and Skull Kid doesn't even do the thing he's best known for; dropping the moon on you...that's a seperate Assist Trophy.

You could do another version of Link but I think Zelda fans might just straight up riot at that point. So don't expect any Link's Awakening Link to go down well.

Overall I'm not confident.

Want: 90%
Which is a shame since I'd be happy with nearly all the above options.

Impa's my personal favourite but it's nearly entirely because of Hyrule Warriors, I can't even pretend that isn't my favourite incarnation and my absolute favourite Zelda character in the entire series because of this silly spinoff title.

Vaati is my favourite antagonist with Ghirahim being my second and personally; I really like Tingle as a joke character. I think he'd be a really funny and unique addition.

Skull Kid and Midna I'm less fussed about but they'd make a lot of people happy and they make a fair bit of sense as two of the most recognisable individuals from the series outside the Triforce trio(and Tingle).

Tetra and Ganon I could live without purely because I'm not the type of guy who likes multiple versions of the same character...Toon Link, Young Link, Dr. Mario and even Zero Suit Samus drive me mad on the roster so I sure don't want more of that, but at least they're not another version of Link.

If it's yet another version of Link however, Sakurai is dead to me, I'll be really disappointed.

 

[Cadillac]

I'm not going to rate, but I'm just going to say Ghirahim's my #1 pick for a new Zelda rep.

 

[warpenguin55]

And DK still needs Dixie, as I said before.

Ok, but why does DK need another in general? Zelda is the 2nd/3rd biggest franchise from Nintendo, but only has variations of the triforce trio. I accepted Xenoblade because XB2 was a popular game, and XB1 is getting a remake next month.

Whats the case for DK and (and because it was mentioned above) Kirby? If it's just puerly because "every other franchise got some" or "no new reps since brawl" we're going to agree to disagree. If it's something else, help me understand please.

 

[Ninjaed]

Impa's design varies greatly between young female warrior and elderly grandmother chieftan and until Hyrule Warriors and Skyward Sword she was a largely ignored character with very few fans.

While I agree for Ganon and Tetra, there's one thing you forgot about Smash - Link, Zelda and Ganondorf all have had their appearances (+ movesets) change. So what if Impa's design vary from one game to another? Sakurai could either pick one or mix parts of them together. Besides, if Toadette is anythign to go by, Nintendo isn't afraid on capitalising on a popular character, even if said popularity is only recent.

My biggest concern with her (and other mentioned reps) is: what aspect would she be representing? Link is the protagonist and represents the items, the master sword and how you have to constantly adapt to the situation, using the right tool at the right time (usually with the newly found item in that same dungeon). Zelda represents the 3 goddesses (rest of the kit is made up). Ganondorf represents the evil constantly threatening Hyrule (formerly a clone with "dark magic" variants). All 3 represent the triforce, a core aspect of the franchise. LotZ is also known for dungeons, exploration and one-offs (+ Link's increasingly large harem), as well as certain unique races (zora, etc). Where does that leave Impa? What part of the franchise Impa would be bringing into Smash?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Ok, but why does DK need another in general? Zelda is the 2nd/3rd biggest franchise from Nintendo, but only has variations of the triforce trio. I accepted Xenoblade because XB2 was a popular game, and XB1 is getting a remake next month.

Whats the case for DK and (and because it was mentioned above) Kirby? If it's just puerly because "every other franchise got some" or "no new reps since brawl" we're going to agree to disagree. If it's something else, help me understand please.

I agree that Zelda is bigger than DK and deserves another rep just as much or even more, but DKC or the DK franchise is Nintendo's 4th best selling series despite it having spin offs and two mainline games in the past two decades since Rare have left. Plus DK and Mario debut in the same game so DK is equally as important as Mario to Miyamoto and Nintendo. It even shows in the roster number in where DK is listed as number #2 being possibly made in Smash after Mario and before Link. DKC was really popular in the 90s and DK is one of Miyamoto's babies so another DK rep especially Dixie Kong is long overdue and deserving of being in the roster. Dixie is to DKC what Peach and Bandana Dee are to Mario and Kirby. Can't picture perfect DKC representation in the roster without having DK, Diddy, K. Rool, and Dixie all together. They're the Mario, Luigi, Bowser, and Peach to DKC.

You can't denie DK's impactful history within Nintendo and the gaming community.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

DK needs Dixie, that I agree on. Very much so. But it's not like Zelda isn't overlooked either, and hasn't been for a very long time.

For the record, I also think Zelda has been overlooked for a long time, hence my previous rating for this. (The wording here kinda implies that I didn't).

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Alucard from the Castlevania series.

Predict Sirfetch’d from Pokemon.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Alucard mood:

Spoiler: Alucard Music

really? ive gotten away with it before

If you didn't meet the minimum two sentence requirement in the past then I can assure you those ratings weren't counted either.

 

[Perkilator]

“Pops! Check out my new Bat-Flip!”
Chance: 35%
Like with Spring Man, I’m a firm believer that Assist Trophies won’t be promoted in the same as where they’re, you know, an Assist Trophy. PLUS the fact that Konami’s a ***** and because of that, we’ll have to stick with Simon and Richter (plus, I’m also a believer that a 2nd rep from a 3rd party franchise should be an Echo, although I’m all for either rule being broken). However, he clearly has his fans; not just through the games, but through the Netflix series. Also, there’s still a lot of missing Castlevania content that would compliment what we already have.

Want: 55%
He’d be cool, don’t get me wrong. But if possible, it should be either through an Ultimate rerelease or in the next game.

Sirfetch’d: 55%-70%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[Cadillac]

Lost Painting intensifies

Chance: 9%
A certainly popular AT, with fans backing him up. Not as much as Waluigi and Isaac, but still a lot. Maybe Konami decided to talk to Nintendo again for a new Castlevania, and decided to put Alucard as the protagonist. Then Nintendo would have no problem promoting him. He was also considered as a playable but his place was taken by Simon. Maybe Sakurai wants to revisit him?

Want: 80%
Outside of Isaac, he is my second choice as a AT promotion with Takamaru. He just looks so cool. The Crissaegrim, bat form, mist form, and there are multiple things he can do that wasn't implemented with his AT. Hellfire, Soul Steal, dark metamorphosis, familiars, or maybe he can use the almighty Alucard Shield. He's a Castlevania character who doesn't camp all day, but instead more of a rushdown. I'd love to slice my enemies with Crissaegrim.

Noms: Takamaru x5

Sirfetch'd: 23%

 

[Jomosensual]

Alucard

Chance 20 - a 3rd party AT upgrade. Not sure what to make of that. I don't really expect it but Alucard is pretty well known, so maybe? If I had to guess I'd say a nintendo AT would get the upgrade first but who knows.

Want 50 - This wouldn't bother me. Alucard is popular so hey, weirder things could happen. He's probably be pretty fun to play as too. I don't exactly have any desire to see the upgrade happen but it's far from something that would bum me out.

Predictions
Sirfetched - 1%

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[DaUsername]

Zelda newcomer
Chance: 5%
Zelda has always had a weird status in the Smash series. It's been very well represented in terms of items, music, and especially stages, but characters? Not so much. The last time we got a Zelda newcomer was Brawl (and Melee was last time we got one that was actually unique), despite the franchises continued success. Meanwhile FE gets a free pass into Smash every time IS craps out a new game. A lot of highly requested Zelda characters like Skull Kid and Midna have been ignored because they only appeared in one game, even though also only appeared in one game.
Basically what I'm trying to say here is that the Zelda series won't get a new character because it's not Fire Emblem. Though if BotW2 ends up releasing before the pass ends, we might get BotW Zelda or something.
Want: 90%
Yes, please, give me a new Zelda character. I don't even care who it is at this point just as long as it isn't another Link, Zelda, or Captain Falcon.

Alucard prediction: 15%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokémon x5

 

[Calamitas]

"What are you gonna do, call that guy who can stop me? What was his name again? Michael MacDoesn'texist?"

Chance: 15%
While I can certainly see Assist Trophy upgrades happening as a part of this pass, and Alucard does have the kind of popularity necessary to back him, I'm somewhat doubtful that he could actually make it. We already have plenty of Castlevania content with over thirty songs and two characters, even if one of them is an echo. I personally just find it somewhat doubtful that we'll get double-dips from third-party companies as far as newcomers are concerned.

Want: Abstain.
Never played a single Castlevania game in my life. So, no want score from me.

Predicting Sirfetch'd to get around 3.33%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x5

 

[Garteam]

"Yes, **** you"

Chance - 1%

A lot of what I said yesterday about Skull Kid applies to Alucard. Even if we see a trend of Assist Trophy upgrades, he's still going to be competing against Waluigi and Isaac, two characters with far more outcry for a playable role than everyone's favourite Dracula spawn. Alucard also has an issue with precedent, as we've yet to see a third party series get an additional (non-echo) rep. He's still relatively popular and unique, so he's in the running for a possible assist trophy upgrade, but he's extremely low on the totem pole in terms of priority.

Want - 25%

I honestly think Alucard's fine where he is: an assist that shows off Metroidvania's gameplay to contrast Simon and Richter's Classicvania gameplay. He could be fun, but there's a number of assist trophies and supporting third party characters I'd like to see before Alucard.

Sirfetch'd Prediction - 13.4%

A handful of high scores will give him a slight signal boost, but I think he'll perform about as well as the other Gen 8 Pokemon who aren't starters have thus far. That is, not very well at all.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Alucard

Chance: 25%

I'm already seeing some people say that Konami would be a pain to work with. Did you all forget we got 34 songs, 2 characters, and a whole bunch of spirits? If anything Konami seems a lot more generous and easier to work with than Square Enix. But aside from that is Alucard likely? Maybe but I'm not sure. We still haven't got a second unique fighter from a 3rd party franchise and even if assist trophies are 100% in contention (Which I'm thinking is quite likely at this point) he still has to compete with all the other popular assist trophies. Though to be fair he is a very popular character and he even almost got in the base roster. He could even be the first character to break the "one unique character per 3rd party franchise rule" if it doesn't happen with someone like Chun-Li first.

But would Sakurai/Nintendo approach Konami for another Castlevania character? There is certainly a lot more new content that could be introduced like from Symphony of the Night alone, but with all the Castlevania content already in Smash, Sakurai might aim to give another Konami franchise representation, like Contra for example. But overall, I would place Alucard within the top 5 or 7 most likely assist trophy upgrades. He has a lot going for him with a super unique moveset, fan requested, and Castlevania still being a popular series (even if it's mostly because of the Netflix series).

Want: 49%

I love Castlevania. Alucard would be such a fun character to play as with all his weapons and abilities. Another Castlevania stage with different gimmicks and enemies that attack you would be great and more Castlevania music is always welcome. However, I already got all the Castlevania content I wanted. 2 Belmonts, my favorite music tracks, and a Dracula's Castle stage. Because of this, a second round of Castlevania content would not be as hype and at this point, I would prefer brand new franchises to get represented. I want other assist trophies to get upgraded and when it comes to Konami franchises, I would much rather have Contra finally get some love.

Prediction: Sirfetche'd - 2%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Our Boy
Chance: 1%: He's an assist trophy and we haven't seen a unique third party character as the second rep for a franchise. That's not the main problem though. The main problem is that if Konami got a promoted character in Smash... it would be Bomberman. No question.
Want: 100%: Symphony of the Night is one of my favorite games ever and I would love some representation for it. Castlevania getting more representation would be great. I am down.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I swear 75% of my time with SOTN must've been spend in the pause menu
Chance: 2%
This guy almost actually made it in over the Belmonts and was instead made into possibly the most versatile AT in the game so Sakurai certainly seems to be a fan of him, like many Castlevania fans. Unfortunately for Alucard, he ain't picking. If Nintendo were to negotiate with Konami again, it would likely be for some other IP since I see them both already being satisfied with the abundance of Castlevania content already in the game. The scenario in which I could see Alucard happening is if Sakurai after the pass is given the freedom to create another character or two for the heck of it, without additional content, using assets that are already there, such as his model. That's pretty wishful thinking tho I'll admit.

Want: 75%
So I beat Symphony for the first time a month or two ago. I wouldn't call it one of my favorite games but I do see how great of a addition Alucard would be. His moveset from that game alone is so vast it may not even fit in a Smash moveset. With all the weapons, spells, items, transformations and familliars at his disposal he'd probably the most versatile fighter Smash would ever see. It's looking like the Belmonts might not be suited for me, so Alucard could be a great alternative. And while I'm not really expecting it, more Castlevania music I can't say no to that. If I had to upgrade one AT it would likely be him.

Sirfetche'd: 6.58%
Dr. Eggman x5

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Alucard the now miserable in the show Dhampyr

Chance: 20% ...This is difficult. Obviously we have a lot of Castlevania stuff. Including two characters. We still have yet to get a second character from a 3rd party franchise that isn't an Echo, but I could see that easily changing in many cases. Sonic too. Castlevania is a very active product right now as is, even if not everybody liked the events in the show itself(I won't list them. You either know it or you don't). I'd give 20% at this point. He has a small chance. He was considered but discarded(he was never planned nor was it clear he'd actually have made it in) overall in favor of the two Belmonts, the original playable characters on each side of the ocean. Poor UK...

Want: 80% I love the guy. He's funny, a really unique character, has tons of different moves. He's freaking Alucard, the son of Dracula. He's one of my favorite characters in the Castlevania franchise(though admittedly I didn't play his games, so it's more the cartoons that made me love him). I can't really go into the Castlevania show, but him being a silly "do what I want" in Captain N was still fun. He was defiant but in the end made a hard choice of what to do. This is what I like about Alucard. He has conviction! ...Even when not having a remotely accurate design(Dracula honestly looked pretty decent for a cartoon variation, imo. Still off, but he was a believable vampire in the end).

Prediction: Sirfetch'd. ...Eh, I'd say 1% if it's not a Spirit. I think it could still get that if we get a Gen VIII Pokemon. It's a very popular one, mostly cause people really wanted Farfetch'd to get an Evolution~

Nominations: Fulgore x 3, Brian(Quest 64) x 2.

...I'm aware I probably don't need to specify with Brian anymore, but I'd rather not ever make it confusing, heh.

 

[Ridrool64]

Alucart

Chance: Sadly, I do believe Alucard is absolutely not happening. 1%, since there technically isn't anything wrong with him. A lot of my reasoning with Chun-Li (who I gave too low a score, but still wouldn't raise above 10%) applies here. But also, while SotN has it covered for music and a stage, he is another character defeated by Spirits when Castlevania already has a ton of them. The whole Konami fiasco likely doesn't help matters with Nintendo. And then there's the three level competition: Assist Trophies, Konami characters, and even Castlevania characters. While maybe that last category he wins handily, Waluigi and Bill Rizer, among quite a few others, give him several runs for his money. He also has everything to lose if the next character isn't Spring Man, so there's that too.

Want: 65%. I firmly believe that Alucard would have been way cooler than Simon. Sure he's more PlayStation-y while Simon is Nintendo-er, but I don't give a ****. Symphony of the Night is tight like the night and anybody here who hasn't played it yet is missing out. Easy best 1997 game I've ever touched.

DLC Music x 5. Sirfetch'd is basically the same as Obstagoon a while back. 1.20%.

 

[amageish]

Alucard

Chance: 8%. This... is a weird one for me. He's an assist trophy and there are other assist trophies that people want upgraded more. He's also a spirit and there are other spirits people want upgraded more. He's from a well-represented series and there are more series (both in-game already and not) people want more. He'd also be the first second non-echo character in a third party franchise, when Castlevania was already the first third party franchise to get an echo fighter.... His current relevance also primarily comes in the form of a Netflix show , for whatever that is worth.

However... I also don't think any of this matters per say? If Nintendo wanted to add Alucard, then I think Sakurai would add Alucard. I doubt that they would be thinking of assist trophy upgrades as "assist trophy upgrades" insomuch as adding a playable character who just so happens to be an assist trophy - so I don't know if it really matters that there are other more-popular AT upgrade requests... In that regard, his chance just comes from the odds of a second/third Castlevania rep, which I do still feel is pretty low just because of pragmatic spirit/stage/music selection.

Want: Abstain. I've missed the Castlevania train entirely and don't have much of an opinion. The closest thing I've played to one is Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon, which is a game that I really enjoyed.

Prediction: 3%

Noms: Level-5 x 5

 

[Proceleon]

I know this is SUPER late, but heck to it if these things are only going to last a day.

Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara and Alucard are all 0% Chance. Zelda Rep is a 5%.
Alucard's already an Assist Trophy, so not happening. Same With Spring Man.
Ribbon Girl and Ninjara may be important characters and mascots, but Sakurai's gone on record saying a character doesn't have to be important or iconic as long as they're fun, which doesn't really apply to those two since their movement options aren't unique. To make the Arms character stand out, they'd need a gimmick that's unlike what we've seen before, and SM, RG and Jara don't exactly scream "unprecedented mechanics" now do they?
As for the Zelda character. Possible, but not likely. There are options, but most of them are already in the game somehow.

As for wants, all the ARMS guys get 1%, Alucard gets 0%, Zelda Rep gets 20%
Quite frankly, there are better choices for both ARMS and third parties, and Zelda's ever shrinking selection means the choices left aren't all that interesting.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't care for Castlevania.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Garteam]

To make the Arms character stand out, they'd need a gimmick that's unlike what we've seen before, and SM, RG and Jara don't exactly scream "unprecedented mechanics" now do they?

We already know the ARMS character's gimmick though: they have long, extendable arms. That's enough of an unprecedented mechanic to justify any ARMS character.