Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[amageish]

Contra Rep

Chance: 12%. It's a classic game that represents a genre largely absent in Smash Bros. It definitely has the legacy and the iconicness to be in Smash Bros. The reason I rate it a bit low is that it's compartively-short on requests and compartively-low on modern relevancy (at least with positive reputation). I definitely think it could happen, but it'd be a dark horse. And the point of a dark horse is you don't see them coming, so I'm not exactly going to give high odds because "They could easily defy their low odds"?

Want: Abstain. It'd be great to have as a rep of run/gun games, but I have no real attachment beyond that.

Predictions: Min Min - 60% / Mummy - 2% / Mechancia - 2%

Noms: Level-5 rep x 5

We're 100% not getting Akechi as an echo fighter of Joker, Joker already has the alternate costume (His 6th one). Same reason why we don't have Jeanne as a Bayonetta echo.

I don't expect either, but my money would be on the newer character anyway. Pit does have a Dark-Pit-inspired look still tho - though I guess that one is kind of a chicken or egg situation, as it was the look that inspired Dark Pit...

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 436: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep
Day 437: Axel Stone (Streets of Rage)
Day 438: Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone)
Day 439: Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon
Day 440: Concept: Level-5 rep
Day 441: Earthworm Jim (Earthworm Jim)
Day 442: Concept: DLC music packs

Axel Stone ended up in second place, while a last-minute boost in nominations got Level-5 rep out of its tie with DLC music packs, and past Earthworm Jim. Quite the concept week we have ahead of us! Only two characters to be rated (though Dragalia Lost rep and Level-5 rep will probably be boiled down to their best candidates anyway).

Your new top seven consists of Junko & Monokuma, Nippon Ichi rep, Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable, Guardian, Meowth, Baldi, and a tie between Decidueye and Darksiders rep.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game pre-Concept: Contra rep

Junko & Monokuma x110
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x100
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x92
Guardian (Destiny) x90
Meowth x83
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x83
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80

100 - 51

Brian (Quest 64) x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Ahri (League of Legends) x67
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Dr. Eggman x45
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x45
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x42
Terra Branford x40
[Rerate] Steve x40
Gordon Freeman x40
Frank West x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Stage: Bowser's Castle x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Gooigi x13
Fulgore x11
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Louie x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Concept: No third parties in this Pass passes 50 noms.

Concepts: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party and Fighter from repped third party franchise swiftly escape the under 25 club.

Ridrool64 Sari and amageish will probably want to change their nominations.

Damn, a lot of you owe it to yourselves to at least give the original Contra a try. When it eventually hits the Nintendo Switch online service, I better see all of you playing it on day 1.

Wait, you're telling me Contra isn't there already? That's criminal! It should be one of the obvious games to have in any NES collection.

Then again, Konami's selling a Contra collection iirc, so we probably won't see it hitting NSO anytime soon.

Konami might not be as generous with Contra as they were with Castlevania, especially after the Blast Corps fiasco. in which case people might accuse Sakurai of Blast Corps favoritism, regardless of what Contra content gets in.

You're probably referring to Rogue Corps. Blast Corps is a Rare N64 game, and a damn good one too.

 

[Ninjaed]

Wait, you're telling me Contra isn't there already? That's criminal! It should be one of the obvious games to have in any NES collection.

Then again, Konami's selling a Contra collection iirc, so we probably won't see it hitting NSO anytime soon.

That's actually not too good for a potential Contra rep.

 

[Perkilator]

You're probably referring to Rogue Corps. Blast Corps is a Rare N64 game, and a damn good one too.

Oh, my bad. Guess I’m THAT out of touch, huh?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played Contra.

Nominations: Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x2, Brian (Quest 64) x3

 

[Ridrool64]

Ridrool64 (among others) will probably want to change nominations.

In that event, (which I honestly had a feeling of), I will be nominating an actual, named, specific character for once! Red (Angry Birds) x 5. I was tempted to go for Shadow Mario as an Echo of Mario, rerate Waluigi or Frisk, or even go fall back on a concept but I think this is a character who, the more I think about it might be a darkhorse candidate.

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. I don't know anything about Contra

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The best franchise to ever be named after an international scandal

Chance: 10%
Contra's one of those series that's just synonymous with gaming. Everyone knows what it is. Despite an awful transition to the 3D space, Contra never really went away and still gets releases, be they new (like the "this should honestly get more attention" level awful Rogue Corps) and old (like last year's Anniversary Collection). And its impact can still be felt in the many games it influenced, including series in Smash like Metal Slug and Cuphead. It's exactly the kind of unexpected yet obvious in hindsight historical choice that Sakurai loves.

Thing is, while the games themselves are undoubtedly iconic, Contra, with its inconsistent localizations, did a terrible job making its characters iconic. The two gunmen, Bill and Lance, are probably instantly recognizable and would definitely be the ones chosen - but still, "Bill Rizer joins Smash!" doesn't have the same ring to it as "Simon Belmont joins Smash!", "Bomberman joins Smash!", or even "Ryu Hayabusa joins Smash!" That might not matter for a character like the Luminary or Terry Bogard, but it might give the higher-ups at Nintendo pause when dealing with a less active and more retro oriented franchise. There might be simply more attractive options for the same audience.

Want: 90%
I love me some Contra. Still don't understand how we didn't get a revival after the phenomenal Contra 4. These are games that can be made on the cheap, dammit! Also, why haven't they announced Sonic Mania 2, Mega Man 12 and a new Bomberman?

Ack, I'm ranting. Point is, I'd love to see Contra get the big Smash love. It's obviously one of the gaming greats, and it deserves to be in. Points for what would clearly be a very inspired and balls-to-the-wall moveset, let me get the spread gun and fill the screen with bullets.

Noms: Terra Branford x5
Min Min prediction: will she unite the pro-AT and anti-AT crowds? Or will her result be the same as Spring Man's but with the roles flipped? I'll go with 56.12% because I'm feeling that even the people who have Spring Man high scores won't give her zeroes.
Master Mummy prediction: 8.91%
Mechanica prediction: 10.71%

 

[Calamitas]

I guess this one'd involve a lot of shooty

Chance: 10%
I'll freely admit, I'm not too familiar with Contra as a series. However, from what I do gather, it's not exactly as big as either Metal Gear or Castlevania, or as popular. And the fact that the most recent game wasn't exactly good doesn't help, either. Contra as a series just doesn't really strike me as something that's high in demand for Smash, or from the people at Nintendo calling the shots.

Want: 0%
Again, I got highly limited knowledge on the series. But, from what I've ever seen and heard of it. . . yeah, not interested.

Predictions:
Min Min - 76.39%
Master Mummy - 2.33%
Mechanica - 4.13%

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x5

 

[NintenRob]

Sorry I'm gonna abstain. I appreciate its an iconic NES franchise but that's the extent of my connection

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction
Min Min 61%
Master Mummy 4%
Mechanica 3%

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Contra rep

Chance: 25%
This is definitely a series that I think gets slept on a little bit when it comes to Smash Speculation. Needless to say, Contra was quite the beast back in the heyday. One of the NES mainstays, persay. It's definitely lost it's mojo nowadays, being dormant for the longest time before being "revived" by the laughably bad Contra Rouge Corps, but the series is fondly remembered and is considered a classic gaming staple. If Smash was looking for another viable retro third party pick, I totally think Contra would be a franchise to keep a slight eye on. Even looking at Konami in general I feel like Contra would be among the next in line, especially if Bomberman is still stuck in assist trophy purgatory. I could totally see Contra as a Sakurai pick, though with Nintendo picking the DLC, I think it'll be a bit outprioritized by a lot more relevant series. Even in the retro department, I feel like it's outclassed by Ninja Gaiden. So at the end of the day, I don't think Contra's that likely, but I'd still keep an eye on it as a potential sleeper pick.

Want: 60%
While I'd prefer Frogger for our next Konami rep, Contra would be another really neat pick. About time we get another retro third party rep alongside Mega Man and the Belmont, and a Contra rep could fit the bill (accidental pun, I swear) quite well. Really interested to see how they'd transition the run-and-gun action to a Smash moveset.

Predicitons:
Min Min: 58.8%
Master Mummy: 7%
Mechanica: 10%

Noms: Steve (rerate) x15

 

[amageish]

amageish will probably want to change their nominations.

Wowee. I got a concept into the schedule. I guess this formally cements me as an active participant versus a lurker in this thread. I'm unsure where to go from here. I've witnessed ratings for 4/5 of the characters in my profile picture already (counting Kat as the upcoming Level-5 rep) and I don't think it's worth rating Kasumi unless echo fighters are confirmed (and "Concept: That Ponytail File Was Once Something Related to Kasumi But It Was Scrapped At Some Point During Development" seems like a bit of a pointless rating)... I guess I'll go with my Mii Costume of choice and do Jill Stingray Mii Costume x 5.

 

[Perkilator]

I think I’ll take a break after Day 442.

 

[BowserKing]

Contra Rep

Chance: 10%. This franchise has been on quite a bit of Nintendo devices, including the NES, so there could be a chance of a rep to show up. Competition would be deadly however, but we have been surprised before.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about this franchise, but a rep could be fu to play as. Who knows, a rep could challenge the likes of Samus, Ridley and Fox in a fight. Overall, a Contra rep could be a fun choice for a rep and it could also promoted the franchise.

Predictions: Min-Min, Master Mummy and Mechanica (20%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[GoodGrief741]

However, from what I do gather, it's not exactly as big as either Metal Gear or Castlevania, or as popular.

I don't see what your point is, Castlevania isn't nearly as big or as popular as Metal Gear and it still got in.

 

[Ninjaed]

Contra's one of those series that's just synonymous with gaming. Everyone knows what it is.

Yeah um, I wouldn't go that far. Like, I know about Contra visually (seen it in videos) but playing it and all? Nope. Same with several other people here, and plenty of abstains. It is big, just not that big.

I don't see what your point is, Castlevania isn't nearly as big or as popular as Metal Gear and it still got in.

But Castlevania together with Metroid spawned a new genre. Its legacy and importance in gaming history is non-negligible. Contra didn't have the same impact, from what I can tell? If I'm wrong, I'd be interested in knowing more.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yeah um, I wouldn't go that far. Like, I know about Contra visually (seen it in videos) but playing it and all? Nope. Same with several other people here, and plenty of abstains. It is big, just not that big.

Notice that I never said that everyone's played it, just that everyone knows what it is.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Arnold and Sylver. (featuring Bootleg Terminator)

Chance: 15%

After Castlevania getting in, the most notorious Konami series that can have a possible rep is this one. Contra is a very popular franchise with a strong legacy. It's one of the (if not THE) most icnonic Run and Gun series ever. It also helps it managed to survive well after the 16 bit era like Castlevania. Hell it even got a game recently..................it sucked ass but still. The only thing against it is well..........it's kinda there. There's no evidence suggesting people are super hyped at the idea of a Contra Rep as DLC, nor that Sakurai has any interest in having one, etc. I mean i think it's more likely than Frogger, but still.

However by the time of the next Smash, i don't see these guys standing a chance against Bombreman, but this is Smash Ult DLC and i don't see Third Party AT Promotions happening anytime soon.

Then again, they could suffer the same fate as Goemon.

Want: 35%
Ehh, why not? I think Contra is recognizable and important enough to warrant a playable possition in Smash Brothers. I honestly want them just because of their concept alone. Macho machine-gun wielding action movie-inspired heroes? Hell yeah, now THAT's something Smash hasn't done before, plus the moveset writes itself. All i need is a Probotector alt and im ****ing set.

However, im not that much intro Contra, mostly because i suck at it more than Rouge Corps does as a game. and even when it comes to Run and Gun, im more of a Metal Slug kind of guy.

Noms:
No Spirit Promotions X5

 

[DarthEnderX]

Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Contra]

Want: 100%
One of the big dogs remaining from the NES era. Needed to fill out the Classic Editions checklist and the roster of Super Mario Crossover!

Chance: 30%
I want em bad but...we've already had one big Konami franchise repped in this game. And I have to admit, their gameplay doesn't seem SUPER interesting. At least, I could definitely see them ending up as Mii Gunner costumes instead of getting picked as full characters.

 

[DanganZilla5]

But Castlevania together with Metroid spawned a new genre. Its legacy and importance in gaming history is non-negligible. Contra didn't have the same impact, from what I can tell? If I'm wrong, I'd be interested in knowing more.

Somebody else here already mentioned it, but Contra's gamplay can be felt in games like Metal Slug and Cuphead, which are already in Smash. And in a way, modern shooters owe it to Contra. It was a game that was inspired by action movies (hence Bill and Lance being inspired by Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger) and was a prime shooter for its day. Sure its not exactly a shooter like Doom but it was a popular example of the gameplay style of dodging bullets, shooting down armies of enemies, and overall the gameplay being explosive and chaotic. My point being is that you can tell this is where the fast-paced gunplay with macho one-man-army-characters came from. If we are going this far, you could argue that earlier games could have started this trend but I digress.

I hope that all made sense. Even if its not as influential as Castlevania and Metroid, it's still an important game.

 

[Mr. Stevenson]

A Contra character (most likely Bill Rizer)

Chance 18%
Although Contra is a really big series that pretty much influenced the run’n’gun genre and that has a lot of history with Nintendo ever since It popped up on the NES, we already have 3 Konami characters (tho two of which come from the same series) on the roster, and sadly I have never seen that much of a push for either Bill or Lance to join Smash. With this, I feel like Contra is most likely determined to be represented with a future spirit event.

Want: 88%
I’m very fond of retro gaming (mostly involving Nintendo) so having Bill Rizer in Smash would be truly epic to me and other retro fans alike, just like Simon Belmont. Similarly to Megaman, Bill’s moveset would clearly be based around projectiles from his various gun powerups, and I think the team could elaborate a really creative concept with that. Plus the Contra soundtrack is amazing, and I believe there’s also a lot of potential for a really unique stage based on his first games.

 

[GoodGrief741]

But Castlevania together with Metroid spawned a new genre. Its legacy and importance in gaming history is non-negligible. Contra didn't have the same impact, from what I can tell? If I'm wrong, I'd be interested in knowing more.

Yeah, Contra definitely had a huge impact. While it didn't invent the run and gun genre, several of its key mechanics like the way weapons drop, the change in perspectives, the tough as nails difficulty and more have definitely been influential. Like Mega Man, Contra's a game whose formula has been copied and homaged endlessly.

(When I was typing the part about Contra not inventing the run and gun, I realized I couldn't think of any game in the genre that predates Contra. Looked it up and I found none. So maybe Contra actually did spawn the genre.)

 

[Ninjaed]

Yeah, Contra definitely had a huge impact. While it didn't invent the run and gun genre, several of its key mechanics like the way weapons drop, the change in perspectives, the tough as nails difficulty and more have definitely been influential. Like Mega Man, Contra's a game whose formula has been copied and homaged endlessly.

(When I was typing the part about Contra not inventing the run and gun, I realized I couldn't think of any game in the genre that predates Contra. Looked it up and I found none. So maybe Contra actually did spawn the genre.)

Nah it didn't. Or maybe it did but only in this particular form. You did have shooter games before that, such as Stargunner (1982) where enemies would drop power boosts (and if you died, you'd lose them). Maybe Contra (1987) was the first featuring actual humans though, which does change the gameplay a bit.

 

[Sid-cada]

Contra rep

Chance - 10% - A major retro representative who more-or-less made the Run and Gun genre of Video games. While one of the two would be a major contender if it were a still major active franchise, but as of recently the series has very much failed to live up to its predecessors, with mostly mobile shovelware to its name. The last proper game, Mobile Corps, was a average-at-best game that hasn't reinvigorated the series compared to, say, DOOM. While it might make sense if it was a base roster pick, I think they would probably try and go for a more aclaimed name who still has some recongition like Ryu Haustuba.

Want - 80% - They would be a fairly good idea, though. They fit right in, with other older Retro third parties.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nah it didn't. Or maybe it did but only in this particular form. You did have shooter games before that, such as Stargunner (1982) where enemies would drop power boosts (and if you died, you'd lose them). Maybe Contra (1987) was the first featuring actual humans though, which does change the gameplay a bit.

Stargunner is clearly a shoot em up, not a run and gun.

 

[Ninjaed]

Stargunner is clearly a shoot em up, not a run and gun.

I know, but the 2 genres are very similar at core. You keep shooting while moving (pretty much pressing the "fire" button), collecting weapon upgrades and the like from defeated foes, as you dodge incoming fire and/or enemies and/or hazards. But in shoot em ups, it's usually with a sidescroll and free movement, while run & gun is grounded without sidescrolling.

Still, those 2 genres + bullet hells usually all share the same core features and are pretty much derivatives of a same bigger whole (which I'm pretty sure finds its roots in the legendary arcade game Asteroid). That's why I said Contra didn't invent the genre. What it did innovate was the run & gun as you pointed out, and I will agree. But I feel like we're talking semantics more than anything at this point, so it's probably better to drop it before we go too off-topic before the new day.

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Contra.
Min Min prediction: 70%
Mummy prediction: 25%
Mechanica prediction: 10%
Noms: Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

It's now time for Day 2 of our mostly weekly ARMS ratings.

Spoiler: ARMS Schedule

Day 1:

• Spring Man
• Ribbon Girl
• Ninjara

(Link to this already completed day)

Day 2:

• Min Min
• Master Mummy
• Mechanica

Day 3:

• Twintelle
• Bite & Barq
• Kid Cobra

Day 4:

• Helix
• Max Brass
• Misango
• Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts

Day 5:

• Dr. Coyle
• Lola Pop
• Springton
• Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)

Day 2

​

So for today rate Min Min, Master Mummy, and Mechanica.

Predict Concept: Dragalia Lost rep.

Day will end around Thursday morning EST (or afternoon depending on the activity). Day 3 of ARMS ratings will occur once the current schedule is completed (after we rate Concept: DLC music packs)

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Spoiler: Day 2 ARMS songs

 

[3DSNinja]

Second get character from the game.
35%: Chance:
She's the mostly likely ARMS fighter. She's popular, has a lot of potential won't her arms, and has already been acknowledged by the Smash team. There's honestly a toss up between her and spring Man.
Want:100%: She's my second favorite character from the game. She has a cool design and is fun to play as,what other reason do I need?
abstaining from the others because they're both uninteresting to talk about.
Nominations::Gordon Freeman x5

 

[Perkilator]

Min Min for the Win Win!
Chance: 70%
Being the winner of the previous Party Bash Crash tournament in 2019, and being one of the most popular characters in general, she’d make sense as a recognizable character from ARMS. And Spring Man being an Assist Trophy, assuming that deconfirms, helps her chances. However, that’s not to say she’s an immediate lock. I’m fact, with the ambiguity of the initial reveal, no ARMS character is set in stone.

Want: 100%
Why do you think I titled this “Min Min for the Win Win!”? After trying every character in ARMS, Min Min became my EASY favorite. Kicks that cancel out attacks, dragon ARMS that can shoot beams for long-distance attacks…any ARMS character can be considered unique due to their stretchy arms, but Min Min is easily the most Smash friendly and my pick for an ARMS rep (I wouldn’t even care if she was a second ARMS rep in a future game).

Anima Mechanica* & Master Dearest
Abstain on both. In short, at least Master Mummy would have the advantage of healing while shielding. Mechanica, however? Her special trait is just hovering. and can already do that.

*Get the lame joke?

Dragalia Rep: 30%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Min Min
Chance: 75%
Up until yesterday I was saying she would be the most likely pick, but thinking on it, I've got to admit she may be up against Twintelle for the spot. Min-Min and Twintelle both stand out as being very popular in the community. I could easily see Nintendo choosing one of them since they're more popular than other characters. The one thing I think Twintelle has over Min-Min is that she specifically appeals to the audience I see Nintendo appears to be aiming for based on their previous DLC decisions.
Want: 40%
She's not amazing but I'd be fine with her. As I've said before ARMS being recognized beyond what it got in the base game is a good enough addition for me. Getting my preferred picks would just be a bonus.
----------------
Master Mummy
Chance: 1%
There's not much to say in his favor. Maybe there's the very unlikely chance that Nintendo just thought he'd be so unexpected that it would make his inclusion garner more attention than someone that was expected. Of course, I strongly doubt that's what happened.
Want: 20%
Another character I'm not very amazed by but would be fine with having. There are no mummies in Smash yet, so he's got that. Would also offer an opportunity for some fanart with the Castlevania duo and Luigi.
----------------
Mechanica
Chance: 10%
She's got very little in her favor as well; she's not the most popular nor is she the face, and her defining trait is that she actually lacks any natural ARMS that the rest of the cast is known for. One very unlikely scenario I can believe may have happened is that Nintendo wanted to include a mech fighter, and Mechania ended up being the most ideal option they had since ARMS is a successful franchise they own. The mecha genre is undeniably popular in Japanese media, and even in the US if you've seen how many games and movies we've made based on them.
Want: 0%
This character is the first one I'll admit I'm least interested in. Mech pilot characters are a deriviative concept and I don't think ARMS should be represented by one. I don't hate mecha stuff, I'm just a little tired of seeing them so often.
----------------

Nomination: No Spirit Promotions x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

has already been acknowledged by the Smash team

How did Min Min get acknowledged? I haven't heard of anything.

 

[Hinata]

Min-Min Win-Win

Chance: 60%

I'd say she's up there as one of the most likely ARMS reps because of her incredible popularity, on top of the fact that she's the dev favorite. But she IS still a Spirit, so that does put a damper on her chances.

Want: 100%
Min-Min's my favorite.

The Chosen Undead

Chance: 5%
He's just not really that important to ARMS. He's just another fighter on the roster, and doesn't really have any claim to fame besides being connected to the big bad of the series.

Want: 5%
Meh.

Discount D.Va

Chance: 5%
See Master Mummy's chance score. She's one of the ARMS reps who isn't a Spirit, though, so she's got that going for her.

Want: 75%
I love her design and character in general, so I would be more than happy to see her get chosen.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Eeny meny min

Chance: 60%

Min Min is without a doubt one of the top popular and iconic ARMS characters. I'm still sticking to my 4 alts theory and if that's true, Min Min is bound to be one of the alts. But even if we are only getting one character, she is still very likely. I still think Spring Man is the most likely candidate, but if he is actually deconfirmed, then Min Min in my eyes is tied with Ribbon Girl and maybe a couple other characters.

Want: 60%

Her design is really cool with the dragon and ball arm combo. The mechanic with her dragon arm is interesting and it fits nicely with Smash. Overall, she would be an appropriate pick for Smash.

Curse of the Mummy's Arm

Chance: 10%

This is the first of the characters who maybe could get in and automatically have a chance because of the limit of 15 characters in the pool, but I'm not very confident in this one. I'm just going to say it here, I think the most likely 4 alts are Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, and somebody like Ninjara, Dr. Coyle, Twintelle, or maybe Helix. From research I've done, Master Mummy doesn't seem too popular and even if there is 4 slots, it would be hard for him to find a spot among the competition. Plus his abilities are not too interesting and he just doesn't seem like one of the better characters to rep the series, at least to me.

Want: 20%

Meh. I like tank characters and the fact that he is a mummy is cool but this guy doesn't interest me too much. His healing ability is unique but when it comes to super armor, we already got that in the game with multiple characters. Compared to characters like Min Min, he just wouldn't add a lot to the game.

female Gundam

Chance: 10%

Similar situation to Master Mummy, even sharing the super armor ability. Mechanica isn't that popular and I'm pretty sure other ARMS characters will take priority. I don't have much else to say about her.

Want: 10%

Not interested. Her design doesn't interest me, neither does her abilities. Give me someone like Spring Man, Ninjara, or Min Min.

Prediction Dragalia Lost rep - 5%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

double post. delete

 

[amageish]

ARMS round 2! Please note that I'm making the odds add up to 100, so my chances will all be lower then average...

Min Min

Chance: 20%. I think she's the most likely ARMS rep, for a few reasons. First off, she won the party crash bash and is generally popular - plus she's been listed as a favourite from within the ARMS team as well. Secondly, her dragon arm ability would work well for Sakurai's comments about the ARMS fighter being a uniquely strategic fighter. We don't have that many characters who power up exclusively as a result of good performance in Smash; it's usually boosting someone's strength as a result of them taking damage or giving damage out. So, she'd be unique. Thirdly, she's one of the only ARMS characters who have canon short-range attacks. Kicks sound useful for a Smash moveset...

Want: 100%. Min Min is great. She was one of my pipe dream picks and I'd be super happy to see her get in. That said, she'd also probably make it impossible for Nintendo to ever have a popularity contest without people expecting ulterior motives ever again...

Master Mummy

Chance: 2%. He's possible, but I think Max Brass being a much-more-important heavy ARMS character makes his odds low in comparison. His ability would be relatively-unique though? We don't have many people who can heal themselves in Smash... He'd be cool if he got in, but his odds are low.

Want: 80%. I'd be down with him. I would probably play him less then other ARMS options though, as I tend to like the faster/lighter characters.

Mechanica

Chance: 1%. I really like Mechanica within ARMS, but I just don't see her being chosen. I don't think her canonically not having the ARMS power naturally and having to do-it-herself would matter all that much, but there's just a lot of competition. Like with Master Mummy, I feel like Max Brass would be the heavyweight if they picked one for Smash. Her ability to hover is cool and unique within ARMS, but is already present in Smash a few times over. She's a great character, but I'm not seeing it...

Want: 90%. I'd be pretty happy with her. I don't know how much I'd play her, but it's never not fun to hover around the stage as ROB. I wouldn't mind doing that while also being able to punch long distances.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Time to rate~

Min Min
Chances: 30%. Frankly, I doubt anyone but the main characters or a mascot has a strong chance. I don't consider the party bashes enough to justify it either. The point is to represent ARMS as well. The only one I think has a reasonable chance if it's not somehow Ribbon Girl or Spring Man is Dr. Coyle, due to being major in the plot. That said, it could happen. Only reason I'm giving a 30% is she's still a believable pick overall, if only cause of her high popularity as is.

That said, I think she's far more likely as an alternate costume of Spring Man if she's in. I don't think she has a good chance of being a stand alone rep as is. Note that my 30% includes these factors too.

Want: Abstain. I... don't have anything legitimate to say on her end as I know nothing enough. Besides, any ARMS character would be highly unique, so she doesn't stand out to me.

Master Mummy
Chances: 2%. Like, because any character is actually possible, I can't give him a 0%. But I don't see much reason to give him more than a "extremely unlikely chance". Min Min does at least have high popularity which I won't deny can be useful.

Want: Abstain. Don't know anything either to give a proper rating on this bit.

Mechanica
Chances: 10%. Only because I could potentially see a Bowser Jr. deal, using multiple characters in Mechanica's suit. I don't really put any clout into it either way, though it'd be a neat way to get a ton of characters in. It's a small enough idea that I can at least believe it could happen.

Want: 40%. For the same reason as above. I like the idea of a Bowser Jr. setup and I want to see all the characters showing up as much as possible. Though I expect a lot of spirits either way. I'd honestly prefer Spring Man or Dr. Coyle at this point, mostly the latter cause we have yet to have a key villain lead off their series(though at the very least, there's no straight protagonist in the game either, due to the story not designating a hero either. I could be off, as I really know nothing on Max Brass either).

Noms: Fulgore x 4, Brian(Quest 64) x 1

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Min Min

Chance: 75%
She won the popularity contest tournament or whatever, so I'd say she has a fairly large shot. If they decide to include more than one ARMS rep her chances shoot up even further.

Want: 100%
I'm a big fan of her design so of course I would want her. Probably at the top of my list in terms of ARMS characters.

Master Mummy

Chance: 25%
I don't really see him being chosen as an individual rep, and his body type is too drastically different to be considered for an amalgam rep. Don't really see him happening.

Want: Abstain

Mechanica

Chance: 25%
Same as Master Mummy above, her build in the robot is too different from the other characters to be part of an amalgam rep. I also don't see her being picked as an individual rep either.

Want: 90%
I like her design as well, so I'd be more than happy with her in the game. Maybe not my top choice, but still within the top half in terms of the ARMS roster.

 

[Ninjaed]

Oh btw, my wants are also totalling 100%.

-
Min Min -
Chance: 26%
She's probably the likeliest candidate, as much as I'd prefer Twintelle. Very popular, won the in-game tournament which I'm pretty sure is the devs acknowledging her overwhelming popularity. Then her kicks and transforming left (iirc) arm give her a bit of an edge moveset-wise over many others. Also I'd say she's the candidate who'd please the most people...

Want: 30%
...myself included. Just because I'd prefer Twintelle doesn't mean I wouldn't like Min Min. Her design is rather on point, her arsenal sets her apart from the others and even at first glance, you can tell she's a swell girl. What's not to like? (a shame she's not French like a certain actress)

-
Master Mummy
Chance: 1%
One of many whose chances struggle to even take off from the ground. Unremarkable in pretty much every aspect, I just don't see what'd make both the Smash team and the ARMS team go "this is the one"!

Want: 0%
There are better mummies out there if we are to ever get one. As for ARMS fighters, ditto.

-
Mechanica
Chance: 1%
Copy pasta from Master Mummy, I just don't see why she'd be handpicked amongst them all.

Want: 3%
Eh, I wouldn't be entirely against. Mechanica'd likely be the closest thing to D.Va in Smash we could get, minus the "nerf this". Too bad they removed Samus's transformation, that kinda worked in a weird way. Also if you couldn't guess, D.Va will be my next vote. Heroes of the Storm gave her abilities in Pilot Mode, so she could have a neat moveset mixing her 2 "modes".

-
Predictions: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep - 6%

Nominations: Concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

-
Btw how's Phantom doing? Haven't heard from him for quite some time now. Last news were not too merry. Hope everything's okay?

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

ARMS: M Edition


Maruchan Martial Artist

This one's gonna be a bit hard to rate due to my obvious bias, but here we go
*Ahem*

Chance: 55%
Min Min's an interesting case compared to other ARMS candidates. She's proven herself to be a fan favorite and was also the winner of the Party Crash Bash. She's even the personal fav character of ARMS producer Kosuke Yabuki. That being said though, Nintendo is picking, and I do think they'll probably want to prioritize the established poster boy/girl of the series in Spring Man and/or Ribbon girl. Though in the off chance they don't go with Toothpaste Man or Pop Star Girl, then I'd say Ms. Noodle over here's our best bet.

Want: 100%
My go-to choice for an ARMS rep and one of my most wanted characters period. Everything about Min Min just clicks for me, her design, her ARMS playstyle. All top notch. The fact that I both own her thread and based the latter half of my username around her would make her getting in be even more special to me compared to some of my other wants.

The Clobberer from the Crypt

Chance 4%
Despite being the token heavy of ARMS and being one of the very first characters shown off for the game, I feel like Master Mummy may be a little outclassed when it comes to Smash. He's got pretty much nothing going for him. He isn't the mascot, not one of the more popular characters, he isn;t even relevant to the plot. Still wouldn't put him at the absolute bottom, he'd still likely get prioritized over the likes of Byte & Barq, Misango and Springtron, though that really isn't saying much.

Want 40%
Far from my ideal ARMS pick, yet I also find him harmless to the point where if they actually end up choosing him, I'd still be pretty content with him.

Kid D.Va

Chance 10%
The one thing that really holds back Mechanica imo, is that she just wouldn't represent the core of ARMS that well. I feel like the character chosen should probably have to have natural ARMS assuming that's half of the ARMS lore. That, and I feel like we already have our mech character covered with Bowser Jr. so I don't see why they'd want to prioritize her in comparison to the rest of the cast. Still giving her a higher chance Master Mummy due to being on the slightly more notable side of things.

Want 40%
Same boat as Master mummy. Not among the higher end of ARMS choices for me but you could still go with a whole lot worse

Predictions: Dragalia Lost 10%

Noms: Steve (rerate) x5