Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

Dragalia Lost rep

Abstain. I don't know much about this game and I don't care enough to do research.

Prediction: Axel Stone - 40% (Underrated pick right here. I'm excited to hear what people think about him.)

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[Sari]

Concept: Dragalia Lost rep
Euden

Chance: 25%
Dragalia Lost has slowly been showing itself as another big Nintendo IP, grossing more money by the day and even having several crossover events with FE Heroes. If this pass is dedicated to promoting new and upcoming Nintendo games then I can see Euden making the cut. That said though, Nintendo might have other priorities for Smash other than promoting a mobile game.

EDIT: Also while doing the music post, I found out that a good amount of Dragalia Lost's OST comes from real life Japanese music (<-- this song is used during downloads for example). Not sure if that could somehow come into play, but I thought it'd be worth mentioning.

Want: Abstain
I have enough mobile games on my plate so I never really tried out Dragalia Lost. Because of this I'll abstain on my want score.

Axel Stone chance prediction: 26.42% (glad that we're finally rating him but something tells me people will overblow his chances since SoR4 just came out)

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining, practically know nothing, but I do feel that it's a bit too obscure.

Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[fogbadge]

well ill be rating euden himself as i feel thats they character theyd go for, anyone else itd be like putting robin in over chrom. wait.......

chances: 50% it may be a relatively new game but i think it was just in time for the second wave of dlc fighters, certainly if byleth was in time for the first. while im not sure on the size of the games following something about him seems like the sort of character sakurai might go for and as nintendo are giving him character ideas i see no reason why a character from a new ip on theirs wouldnt be on it

want: 90% while im not sure how much unique things hed bring to the table ive always been one for playing as characters i like rather than whos different. of course if they found away for him to have the shapeshift mechanic implemented he would be very different. temporarily turning into another character who plays differently would certainly bring something new to the table, or maybe thatd be a bit broken.

 

[Ninjaed]

Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 0%
I'm rating 0 instead of like 1 because this would be the very first mobile gaming rep in Smash. And for the first mobile gaming rep in Smash to not even feature in top 10s of best grossing franchises, being a few hundreds of millions of dollars behind Fire Emblem Heroes in revenue... From a marketing viewpoint, I don't see it. It might be Nintendo's second best mobile game (barely), it's just not enough to warrant a slot. And that's without counting top 10 regulars like Fate/Grand Order (not sure about say Roblox though) that could legit get a rep and which are so massively ahead it's not even funny.

Next there is gameplay and well, the swordsman transforming into a dragon shtick has already been done by Corrin. A full transformation would be a nightmare to balance while still making it enjoyable to play. It has to make you feel the power of a dragon, but not be so overwhelming people camp to charge it up or whatever. And aside from that gimmick, there isn't much that deserves any particular attention really. Nothing iconic. As an example, I'll take Fate again - "I am the bone of my sword" is a phrase many here should know I believe. Dragalia Lost on the other hand? Didn't even hear of it until it came up in speculation. No real impact in gaming, just one among many.

There's more but in short, too many roadblocks for too minor a title.

Want: abstain
I hold no particular feelings toward Dragalia Lost, but the full transformation into a dragon could be pretty appealing - if done right. I'm so scared it'd get messed up I can't say I'd want it though. Don't want a dragon Arsène in this game, as much as I'd love to play him... Ugh, I'm so torn!

Predictions: Axel Stone - 33%

Nominations: Concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5 (+5)

 

[GoodGrief741]

I found the Dragalia, go home

Chance: 19%
I can see it, Dragalia Lost is Nintendo's first (and so far only) mobile-born IP. If this pass is heading in a more promotional direction, then it would make sense to promote this game. It was pretty successful from what I've read, but still, it's a gacha, any exposure it gets means more players and more whales.

From what I know of Euden, a cool moveset is a guarantee, and stages and spirits are an easy get too. One thing that gives me pause though is the music. I've always wondered why it's so hard to find music from Dragalia Lost, and now I'm learning that it's because it's licensed? If so, I don't know if they'd go with DL. They can't release a pack with Cloud levels of content, not anymore with the current standards, and certainly not for a first party. But conversely, if they were looking at first party characters, they'd probably go for one that doesn't require licensing to save money.

Want: abstain
On one hand, a Nintendo IP with a unique character and setting. On the other hand, a gacha, an exploitative genre that's very much slowly poisoning the industry. Yeah, this is quite the mixed feelings choice for me.

Noms: Terra Branford x5
Axel prediction: methinks people will overrate him because of SoR4, so like 39.42%

As an example, I'll take Fate again - "I am the bone of my sword" is a phrase many here should know I believe.

Can't say I've ever heard this, or any other phrase from Fate for that matter.

 

[amageish]

Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance: 15%. I was going to give it more, but the fact the game still isn't officially out in Europe slices my odds in half. Yes, European players can still play it and it's out in English, but Sakurai has commented on how Smash Bros is a worldwide game and how we wouldn't do a Marth/Roy/Lucas situation nowadays. And, yes, they could still release it there now, though the fact it hasn't come out in the past two years is... uh... weird. Could it be related to the EU regulations on F2P games? I don't really know what those entail.

That said, the fact the series has no content in Smash whatsoever is very suspect. Heck, do we have any content based on Nintendo Mobile games at all? Nintendo is clearly interested in continuing to expand their mobile presence, so that is kind of weird. Dragalia Lost is their first big unique IP on mobile and its numbers are nothing to sneeze at. I could see it getting in as a representative of this side of Nintendo's business - possibly with the other Nintendo mobile games getting Mii costumes and spirit events around the same time.

Want: Abstain. The idea of someone turning into a giant dragon is a fun/unique gimmick. I've played some Dragalia and was generally impressed - I've enjoyed what I've played. That said, the morality of gacha games and how they use FOMO to squeeze money out of people is... uh... ambiguous. Yes, Dragalia is very very very nice by gacha standards, but I'm not sure if I want a character in Smash Bros if they have the potential of giving someone a gambling addiction.

Noms: Jill Stingray costume x5
Axel Prediction: 25%.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Euden. This is basically a rate for Euden without saying Euden's name. As such, I will be treating this as a rate for Euden.

Chance: 50.00001 (the .00001% is for a DL rep that isn't Euden). Considering how Nintendo is pushing DL right now and DL has even gotten some crossovers with some of the big boys ( and Rathalos), I could see it being in the realm of possibility. However, there are a few major obstacles for the inclusion. First: . A lot of Euden's appeal would be lost since we already have a sword-fighting dragon shapeshifter, and that seems way too specific for me to be able to say "oh it won't matter". Second: Music. A lot of the game's music, including some of its most important songs, are owned by a very strict real-life japanese record label, which doesn't even allow youtube uploads of most of their songs. Needless to say, that's gonna take some effort, especially since we need a set of tracks to go with each challenger pack. Maybe they could try remixes, but I'm not sold on it being a "get out of jail (relatively) free" card. Third is regions: Dragalia Lost is available in a very small set of regions. Doesn't sound like a good business strategy to promote a game where nobody can buy it. Sure, there's Lucas, but Sakurai chose him because he thought he was worthy. Nintendo's picking and they mostly want the $$$$$. He seems likely among Nintendo reps ignoring that, but his chances could skyrocket or plummet depending on who the next 2 or 3 DLC fighters. If we get a Non-Spirit ARMS rep + another couple of 1st parties, his chances could skyrocket. However, if we get quite a few 3rd parties, his chances would look kind of dead. I'm gonna say 50% due to the volatility of Euden's situation and the large amount of factors currently in play on both sides, plus an extra .00001% should we wind up with someone else.

Want: 90%. Easily in my top 4 most wanted, because Dragalia has a lot of heart for a mobile game. Good music, copyright or not, enjoyable characters and storylines, legitimately challenging endgame quests that make you feel accomplished for completing them, a dev team that listens to player feedback and works to make their game as accessible as possible while trying to make players old and new able to access the aforementioned endgame content... and all of it can be accessed without paying a single dime through in-game quests, which they're generous with. With that said, I can see why people would be against his inclusion. Anime Swordgihter with a gimmick we already have from a gacha game. And even if it is no Raid: Shadow Legends, who's to say the floodgates wouldn't be opened for a Raid: Shadow Legends if we got Euden? Still, from my time playing, I feel that anyone who isn't adamantly anti-mobile/gacha should play it, because I think it's an underrated game that gives all players a chance to enjoy it and would be right at home in Smash, even with a similar character like Corrin.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Many of you didn't reach the sentence requirements yesterday because of giving the same reasoning for Master Mummy and Mechanica. Be careful in these double or triple days, just because two characters have pretty similar reasons for exclusion doesn't mean you don't still have to explain them.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Min Min/Master Mummy/Mechanica pre-Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

Junko & Monokuma x110
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x110
Guardian (Destiny) x100
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x95
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x94
Meowth x85
Brian (Quest 64) x81

100 - 51

Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Ahri (League of Legends) x70
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x60
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x60
[Rerate] Steve x60
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x55
Gordon Freeman x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x50
Frank West x50
Dr. Eggman x48
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Terra Branford x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x32
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Stage: Bowser's Castle x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Louie x15
Fulgore x15
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x10
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
[Rerate] Captain Toad x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5
Red (Angry Birds) x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep ties with Junko & Monokuma to see who is truly the first in the list. Baldi barely sneaks past Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable and steals fourth place. With one single nom, Brian gets to keep seventh place, as Decidueye and Concept: Darksiders rep fall off the top seven.

Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies and Gordon Freeman break past the 50 nom barrier.

Heck, do we have any content based on Nintendo Mobile games at all?

There's one song from Fire Emblem Heroes, and that's it afaik.

 

[Perkilator]

There's one song from Fire Emblem Heroes, and that's it afaik.

Actually, we technically have two; the FEH version of the main theme, and the Gear Up For remix.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 80%
Maybe I'm being a little generous, but I think people are sleeping on this. Nintendo clearly wants to get into the mobile market (heck, they just confirmed that they have plans to release more mobile games in the future), and Dragalia Lost could help solidify that effort. It's their first original IP on mobile, and has already had crossovers with other big name IPs (Fire Emblem, Mega Man, and Monster Hunter), so SOMEONE at Nintendo sees value in it. That being said, aside from a FEH track, there isn't any mobile content in Smash yet, so it is uncharted territory.
Want: 100%
This is easily the best mobile game I've ever played. It manages to be fun and engaging despite the platform of choice. Plus, while some of the music is licensed, the tracks that aren't could easily be implemented and be worth the purchase alone. Trust me, if you play mobile games, give Dragalia Lost a chance.

Nominations: Concept: Pokeball Pokemon becomes playable x1, Brian (Quest 64) x4

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance: 15% - Considering the nature of the pass so far this could certainly be in the cards. Dragalia has no representation yet, Nintendo is continuing to expand its' mobile presence, and it promotes another new IP which would be a huge money maker. It's also been crossing over with other franchises, including Fire Emblem and Mega Man, so the franchise is certainly making a name for itself. Let's not mention the money the game's machanics makes, and we all know how much Nintendo listens to sales numbers, The game launched four years ago so normally it'd be odd for them to start doing this now (as opposed to making Euden a base game character), but with the surprise ARMS inclusion, anything's possible.

However there's also plenty of issues surrounding the inclusion of a rep. The first is music. The game's soundtrack is owned by a very stingy and expensive label, and Nintendo might not find it worth it to license the music for the price they demand (could even be like Square Enix on steroids). There's also the fact that the game isn't available worldwide, and Sakurai mentioning that he wants to avoid any Lucas/Marth/Roy situations going forward. Since Lucas we've had no characters who were unknown in certain regions. Finally there's just the general lack of fan demand. Unless I'm missing something, I've almost never seen anyone clamoring for this series to gain representation in Smash.

Overall a possibility but more than likely not a priority, especially since there are more first parties that are much easier to gain content for.

Want: 1% - While dragons are super cool, I'm going to have to say no to this series' representation. While I appriciate that is has good plot and gameplay (which is way better than that Fate GO and fellow Cygames property Granblue Fantasy are doing), it still has a lot of elements that I detest about modern Japanese mobile games. The exploitative nature of the gacha genre and how it preys upon people's temptation to gamble does not sit well with me, and how people continue to let it slide (while a lot of Western devs are getting SLAMMED over loot boxes. They're both the same practice, you hate one, you have to hate BOTH) is just wrong. Spending loads of money for waifu PNGs is not a legacy to follow or represent, and has only poisoned the industry in the long run. Yes, Dragalia is very nice by gacha standards, but it still has a lot of the flaws and exploitative nature of the genre at large, and that's the last thing I would want to see represented in Smash.

There's also the fact that Euden would be, yes, another anime swordsman that doesn't have a ton of demand. His dragon transformations are already done by Corrin, so his abilities don't stand out to me at all. The audience that Euden and friends would cater to already got a lot of love last pass, and I hope we get some more variety this time around. I know I sound blunt, but this series just doesn't appeal to me, and the characters just don't stand out to me. Plus there are several first parties I'd much rather see make the cut.

Plus, if we're going to have a human with a connection with dragons, I have a different character I'd much prefer.


Nominations:
Louie x10

Predictions:
Axel Stone - 17.32%

 

[Ninjaed]

Can't say I've ever heard this, or any other phrase from Fate for that matter.

Huh, I'm genuinely surprised you didn't. This and "people die when they are killed" are probably the 2 most (in?)famous phrases/memes in Fate. I'll let you check them out if you feel so inclined but this isn't about Fate today so this'll wait until we predict Saber or Archer.

 

[Jomosensual]

Dragalia Lost

Chance 0 - Owned by Nintendo so that's a plus. Otherwise yeah, IDK. If you're going mostly first party in this pass then there's so many other character that are better picks from a iconic standpoint and a popularity one as well. I think it's going to be 4/2 in favor of 3rd parties or 3/3 at best and I can't see this being repped in one of those spots.

Want 0 - I don't really like mobile games and don't see them as a genre that needs to be repped in Smash. Theres a very slim number of characters from them I have any interest in and Dragalia Lost isn't one of them.

Predictions
Axel - 25% because I have no clue who this is.

Noms
Guardian

 

[amageish]

Actually, we technically have two; the FEH version of the main theme, and the Gear Up For remix.

Ahhhh, okay. Well, that almost makes me more confused why we don't have the FEH OCs as spirits then... It's not like it'd be hard to do...

 

[fogbadge]

the fact the game still isn't officially out in Europe slices my odds in half. Yes, European players can still play it and it's out in English

yes it is, we got over a year ago

 

[amageish]

yes it is, we got over a year ago

Sorry, I meant continental Europe. It launched in the UK and current/former commonwealth places last year, but still isn't in the rest of Europe for whatever reason.

 

[RouffWestie]

Dragalia Lost character
Chance: 25%
I see Nintendo going for A.) the already existing mobile giants of other companies (Fate or Granblue) or B.) The Fire Emblem mobile game. Draglia Lost is one of their own IPs, but that hurts it's chances as much as it helps them. For it to be a success, they have to continue supporting it, and Nintendo has trouble with that. A lot. Though ARMS does seem like a sign that they're going to put more effort into their keeping their IPs alive, I'm still more convinced they're only going to be able to stick with the modest pool of first-party series that have been regularly used throughout the Wii U era. An entire fighter pack dedicated to it is possible, but I find it more likely they would focus on a bigger mobile game.

Want: 0%
Dragalia Lost doesn't really interest me unfortunately. I'm not a dedicated mobile gamer, but I like the physics challenges, the puzzlers, and the arcadey types. I have history spending some bus rides across campus playing PAD and Monster Strike, so if any mobile games get represented, I'd rather it be the ones I played.

Nominations: Concept: Fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

 

[fogbadge]

Sorry, I meant continental Europe. It launched in the UK and current/former commonwealth places last year, but still isn't in the rest of Europe for whatever reason.

geez, wonder what thats about

 

[BowserKing]

Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance: 20%. Due to them being owned by Nintendo, plus the success it is gaining, and the fact that Nintendo characters are in the fighter's pass, the chance of a Dragalia Lost rep is quite decent. Of course, there still is competition, and there are slim chances of them not being in, but it's not as impossible as it used to be.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about this game, but as long as the rep chosen is fun to play as, then it's good enough for me. The question is who??? Either way, a rep has some potential, and could also give this franchise a promotion, and while unlikely, a higher chance of certain other franchises getting in (playable or non playable)

Prediction: Axel (10%)

Noms: 2 for Meowth and 3 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (67E)

 

[warpenguin55]

Dragalia Lost
Chance: 0%
I legit forgot this existed. Is Nintendo pushing DL at all? I haven't heard anything about this game since... well probably the last time we rated it. My score was double 0 back then, there it will stay. The competition is too rough imo.

Want: 0%
Never touched this game. Not interested in seeing this happen

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, just to address my earlier Assist Trophy tangent; I’d accept an Assist Trophy being promoted in the same game where they were an Assist Trophy, but I won’t 100% like it. I’ll leave other people to like it, though.

 

[NintenRob]

I try to rate every Nintendo character, but given the mobile and gacha nature of the game, I'm gonna abstain.

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction Axel 10%

 

[SmashChu]

Dragalia Lost:
Changes: 60% - I think folks are rating this a bit low but it otherwise fits well. It's a series not yet in Smash, it could do something unique, and they can easily put all the characters in the background like they love to do. If ARMS is any indication, Nintendo may be targeting their own series, so Dragalia makes a lot of sense.

Want: 50% - Don't care much but more Nintendo characters are always cool. Also, always a game I wanted to try but never got around to it.

 

[Ridrool64]

Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Chance: 40%. Drops like a rock if the ARMS character is a character from the base game, but gets way higher if the next character is somebody who wasn't in base game. The continued lack of Dragalia Lost content in Smash makes no sense for being Nintendo's new mobile property. You'd think something's up... and while I think that could be the case, overall it seems that DL may just miss out on the game. Who the rep is: like last time we supposedly did, it's super obvious. Euden. Why they would go for anybody else is beyond me. In fact I couldn't even name a single other character from the games, but can tell you that at least Euden is a better Corrin.

Gonna abstain on want, at least this time. I can't say I care about Dragalia Lost in any particular way, not even having hangups with mobile games in Smash because I don't actually care about that either. I've heard a bit about Euden but not enough to form an opinion on him or any other "potential" rep from the game.

Red x 5. Axel is the first SEGA rep in a while that I think has a serious shot, but compared to how Arle and Kiryu have had continued popularity, I dunno if he can hold up to missing out on the fifth, sixth, and seventh generations in a row. Combined with inter-series competition with Blaze... 25.60%.

 

[fogbadge]

I try to rate every Nintendo character, but given the mobile and gacha nature of the game, I'm gonna abstain.

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction Axel 10%

well at least its gatcha nature isnt as bad as others

 

[PeridotGX]

Chance - 40%. Dragalia Lost is Nintendo's only original Mobile IP, It's something they would definitely want to promote. The question is if they would prefer promoting their Dragalia Lost, or adding a bigger mobile game, like Fate or Granblue? That's not somnething I think I can awnser.

Want - Abstain. I haven't played Dragalia, and I don't plan to. Euden's moveset would probably be pretty cool though.

Noms: PMD content x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Dragalia Lost

Chance - 5% - Dragalia Lost is the first Mobile-only IP Nintendo owns, and while it's not a Pokemon Go or FE Heroes, it's still carved a decent niche. The problem is, I don't think Nintendo takes the mobile market that seriously. They mostly consider stuff like that mobile mario kart game a way to "promote brand awareness" (whatever that means) rather than an actual money maker; all mobile games coming from Nintendo have had a second party to deal with it, like the aforementioned Go, Heroes, or even HAL Egg's own forays. While it might be possible, I don't think Nintendo keeps mobile games as a priority.

Want - 50% - Microtransactions are a real mixed bag to me. Sometimes they can be good, but they are really easy to abuse. I don't know how to feel about a representative of one getting in Smash.

Nominations

Nippon Ichi Rep X5

 

[DaUsername]

It's called Dragalia Lost because you'll lose all your money, or, Corrin 3
Chance: 1%
I feel like if Nintendo was gonna shill one of their mobile games in Smash, they'd go for a bigger one, like FEH. I mean, I know we just got a Fire Emblem character, but Nintendo has proven that that doesn't matter.
Want: 0%
Dragalia Lost is like Fire Emblem but without the few redeeming qualities it has. Mainly the fact that's it's a Gacha game, and if you wanna know my opinion on those, let's just say I think the world would be a better place if they didn't exist. So I don't care who it is, gacha franchises should stay as far away from Smash as possible.

Axel prediction: 25%
Noms: Gordon Freeman x5

Microtransactions are a real mixed bag to me. Sometimes they can be good

Any examples? Because I can't think of any.

 

[Perkilator]

I believe we should be starting Axel Stone soon?

 

[Ninjaed]

Any examples? Because I can't think of any.

There usually aren't examples of those since the corporates who implement them only care about the money they can make. See those actual content microtransactions or DLC? Those are at the bottom of their concerns and their profits. Instead, they'll sell you xp boosts and the like. Here's a video of YongYea covering the morally inept guy holding a conference on how to extort as much money as possible from your playerbase (very educational, I highly recommend the watch):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ywdh1on_HU

Before, you had stuff like expansions (Age of Empires or Warcraft 3 come to mind). You also have cosmetics which imho are a fair way to sustain a free-to-play game (League of Legends). Speaking of LoL, they've sadly "extended" their business practice to include IP boosts and even lootboxes, so they're no different now and rely on the same psychological traps as many other games out there.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Axel Stone from Streets of Rage.

Predict Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone)

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the street brawling mood:

Spoiler: Streets of Rage Music

 

[Deleted member]

Chances for Axel Stone: 40%

While I feel the recent release of Streets Of Rage 4 could help Axel's chances in the near future... I sadly believe that for Ultimate it may already be a bit too late. But hey! Maybe we get lucky and Axel does get in, the chances do thankfully exist and his status as a SEGA Legacy icon could potentially help him out!

Want:100%
Playing Streets Of Rage 4 and replaying stuff on my Mega Drive Mini made me realize how much I used to love SEGA. I would completely welcome Axel Stone alongside other great SEGA characters such as Alex Kidd, Ulala, NiGHTS, Beat, Joe Musashi, Sakura or Opa Opa. SEGA has a lot of picks who I believe fit really well with the spirit of Smash.


Won't make nominees since I don't know how to do that, sorry.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Prediction 1%

Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

 

[Perkilator]

GRAND UPPAH!
Chance: 60%
With SoR4 having come out recently to positive reception, a main character from one of the most iconic beat ‘em ups is one who’d make sense for a second SEGA-created rep. However, he’s got some competition ahead of him with franchises like Yakuza, Sakura Wars, Puyo Puyo, etc., plus the fact that Streets of Rage was in a dormant state for nearly 30 years.

Want: 100%
That being said, I pledge full support for Axel. His moveset is one of those that screams Smash-friendly and compatible*. Plus, THE MUSIC. Oh, man, I’d be glad I bought FP Vol. 2 just for the music.

*Of course, I made a few additions to his base SoR2 moveset to make him feel like a diverse beat ‘em up character.

Spoiler: Here’s what I mean, but it’s not too much.

Normal Attacks
Jab: Axel punches twice with his left hand (5%, small knockback) and then a third time with his right hand (6%, small knockback)
Forward+A: Axel kicks outward with his left leg (8%, OK knockback)
Down+A: Axel kicks along the floor with his right leg, which can trip the target (7%, small knockback)
Up+A: Axel performs an uppercut with his right hand (12%, OK knockback)

Aerials
Air+A: Axel performs a backflip kick with his right leg (11%, OK knockback); taken from one of Skate’s normal attacks.
Air Forward+A: Axel kicks outwards with his left leg (10%, OK knockback)
Air Back + A: Axel kicks backwards with his both legs (14%, OK knockback); taken from one of Skate’s aerials.
Air Up+A: Axel kicks upwards with his right leg (12%, OK knockback)
Air Down+A: Axel knees the target with both knees (13% with a meteor effect, OK knockback)

Dash Attack: Thunder Tackle; Axel charges forward and attacks with his elbow (15%, OK knockback); taken from one of Max’s specials.
Edge Attack: Axel sweeps with his left leg as he gets back up (11%, OK knockback)
Get-Up Attack: Axel jumps up and kicks out with both legs (10%, OK knockback); loosely taken from one of Skate’s aerials.

Smash Moves
Forward+A: Knuckle Bomb; Axel swings both his fists forward (23%, medium knockback); taken from one of Max’s specials.
Up+A: Embukyaku; Axel kicks upwards with his left leg (22%, medium knockback); taken from one of Blaze’s specials.
Down+A: Double Spin Kick; Axel sweeps across the ground with both legs (19%, medium knockback); taken from one of Skate’s specials.

Grab Game
Grab: His grab from the games.
Pummel: Axel knees the target (2%)
Forwards+Throw: Axel headbutts the target (14%, OK knockback)
Down+Throw: Axel Toss; Axel vaults over the target and throws them down on the ground, burying them (15%)
Back+Throw: Axel drops his back onto the ground and throws the target backwards (13%, OK knockback)
Up+Throw: Axel briefly jumps up, and then kicks upwards while holding the target (16%, OK knockback); taken from one of Skate’s throws.

Special Moves
B : Dragon Smash; by holding B, Axel charges up a flurry of punches that he unleashes after, finishing with an uppercut (22%, medium knockback; 2.1% recoil)
B + Forwards : Grand Upper; Axel dashes forward and uppercuts the target with great vertical height (17%, medium knockback; 1.2% recoil); it’s basically Captain Falcon’s Raptor Boost, but with less distance.
B + Up : Grand Hook; Axel performs a 360 Dragon Wing with emphasis on horizontal movement (11%, OK knockback), and finishes with an uppercut with emphasis on vertical movement (18%, medium knockback; 1.7% recoil)
B + Down : Dragon Wing; Axel punches in a 360 turn (9%, small knockback), and then punches straight forward (19%, medium knockback; 1.6% recoil)

Final Smash: Police Backup; Axel punches up to three targets at once (9%), and then said targets are dragged into a cutscene where Axel radios in for backup. A police car arrives and the cops fire their bazookas at the targets, who are trapped in a ring of flames followed by an explosion (53%, devastating knockback).

Gimmick: Axel’s damage slowly rises whenever he uses a special move; however, there’s a meter you’re granted at the start of each stock that grants you one special move without damage. This meter has a 5-second cool down between special moves.

Civilization stage: 1%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Going to double abstain here because I know I wont have time to look into this character

Predictions
Civ stuff- 1.25 percent

Noms
The Stretchers x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

NOOOOOOOO, YOU CAN'T PUT ANOTHER SEGA REP IN SMASH, THAT WOULD MAKE IT 4!

ha ha blonde guy go Grand Upper.

Chance: 5%

Let's face it, the only reason we are rating him is because of SOR 4's recent release. and honestly, that kinda kills his chances already. It's a franchise that was dead for almost 2 decades and just was recently revived. The Fighter Pass 2 was decided probably around the time 2019, but still, i don't see reason Sakurai would chose him. SOR is a popular Sega franchise no doubt, but he has to compete with 2 noteworthy candidates:
-Kiryu from Yakuza, which is basically Japan's GTA. It's probably SEGA's most profitable series in recent years, and if Snake and Bayo proved anything Sakurai isn't afraid of using M-Rated series.
-Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo, which is massively popular in its country of origin and now has made a new for itself internationally (granted, it's still niche, but at least people know it exists) and has seen much more support in recent years.

There's no evidence supporting Axel so far. and he doesn't have the popularity requests or outspoken interest from the owners that could lead to a Banjo situation.

Want: 60%
...............which is a shame, because Axel would be a FAR better option over Kiryu and Arle in my eyes. Sure Streets of Rage isn't as popular as Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, but i don't give a ****, and Sakurai clearly didn't when he added Bayonetta before those 2. Or when he added Capcom's Mega Man over the best selling Capcom series Resident Evil and Monster Hunter as playable. Best selling franchise doesn't mean best option for Smash in my opinion. If i was in Charge of Smash i would put Rayman as the Ubisfot character and let the Ass Creeds as nothing but simple Mii Costumes.

Anyway, Axl Stone would be definetly fun to play as. He doesn't need any stupid gimmicks to work, just make his moveset as faithful to his series as possible and we got a champion in our hands.

and do i need to comment on the Soundtrack? Just make it into a SNK situation and have Yuzo Koshiro put all the SOR soundtrack in the game. ****'s a banger i tell ya.

Predictions:
We lost Clone High and yet Ghandi can nuke people: 10.12%

Noms:
Asuka (Senran Kagura) X5 (im out of ideas)

 

[Ninjaed]

Axel Stone

Chance: 30%
That score is probably too high (at least by my standards) but to me, Axel is one of Sega's frontrunners. He's a Sega legacy icon, with SoR1 and/or SoR2 featured in every single MegaDrive (Genesis for you in NA) top 10 - usually with either being in the top 3. Not only was Streets of Rage quite the thing, they've just released Streets of Rage 4... and it looks gorgeous. The reviews are very positive, making it one of very few series that releases consistently good titles. Also from what I've seen, the game oozes passion like Sonic Mania, but most importantly it's proof Sega never forgot about it (if the comics, Axel's cameos like in Project X Zone, etc weren't proof enough already). The fans at least never did, making fangames and all.

In short... Iconic? Check. Still relevant? Check (SoR4 was in the works since way before FP2 negotiations started). Moveset potential? Check. Popular both in Japan and overseas? Check.
It's just a shame there has to be competition between Kiryu and Axel. Both would be awesome in Smash. If I were to choose, I'd pick Axel in a heartbeat. If Sega and Nintendo were to choose though... I'd still say Axel'd have his chances. SoR was popular over the world, while Yakuza only recently managed to break through.

The biggest roadblock to me is Sega would be having 3.5 fighters in Smash (Bayo counts for 0.5). I'm not confident in Sega being offered another rep when there are still so many big names and icons out there waiting in line. But we've been surprised in the past. Several times. Time will tell but while unlikely, it's not a possibility that can be dismissed.

Want: 100%
Oh my god, YES!! He's someone I'd absolutely love to have in Smash! Streets of Rage 2 and 3 are, like Trials of Mana, some of very very few games we played for far too many hours. I'm not talking hundreds, I'm talking thousands. When meeting back up with my sister or brother, we'd play at least once through either SoR 2 or 3 (we did get SoR 1 too but found it paled in comparison). In mania starting with 1 life, obviously. And sometimes trying to get one another killed or throwing the other because that turkey is MINE!! My brother who is now married with a child has no time for playing games anymore (nor does he really want to anymore)... yet he was the first to tell us that SoR4 was in the works. And when I wanted to tell my sis about the game's release, she actually did before I could. So yeah, it means so damn much to us siblings that Axel Stone is my equivalent to Dragon Quest's Hero to Japan. And the music, gods. I need it in Smash. If we could get a Shiva AT on top of that, it'd simply be glorious!

Just for the memes:

Predictions: Civilization stage (standalone) - 0.4%

Nominations: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

 

[amageish]

Axel Stone

Chance: 15%. Man, Sega has a lot of competition among its various series. The fact Streets of Rage has come back swinging is definitely a good sign for it, but it would be a bit of a gamble for them to have chosen a character from it prior to the release/reception of its revival. I don't think it has considerably higher odds then Yakuza, Shenmue, Puyo Puyo, etc. - but it definitely is in the running. This does also assume we're getting another Sega rep, which... is possible? It is still kind of weird how Sega is mostly represented via non-Sega-created IPs, but also it's kind of weird how Bandai Namco only has Pac-Man in spite of co-developing the game... There are a lot of kind of weird things in Smash.

Additionally, the fact River City has been spirited away could be seen as a good sign for Streets of Rage, as that takes another major beat-em-up staple out of the running. However, it also means that ArcSys was approached for Smash-related things and they own Double Dragon too. So, there is competition both within Sega as a company and within the category of beat-em-up staples. There's definitely a path for him to get into Smash, but it's a slightly rocky one.

Want: 50%. I'd personally rather River City by a bit, but this is the next best thing with it out of the running. I'd be definitely satisfied. I do wonder if they'd pick a scrolling stage too... That has the potential of being cool and also the potential of being very annoying haha.

Predictions: Um. Do people expect standalone stages at all? 1%...

Noms: Jill costume x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Axel Stone

Chance: 20%

He is one of the protagonists of the Streets of Rage games and will probably be the one to get in, since he is recognizable and alongside Blaze, appeared in all the games. Axel does have moveset potential with his numerous grapple moves and all the weapons he can pick up like knifes, baseball bats, pipes, katana, grenade, etc. Streets of Rage is a classic beat em up series and is a staple of the genre.

But would Streets of Rage be chosen? Personally I wouldn't give a confident yes. While this is the type of series that Sakurai would pick, I'm not sure if Nintendo would pick something like Streets of Rage. Even though Streets of Rage 4 is on Switch, they got plenty of bigger games to shill like Pokemon, Xenoblade, Zelda, etc. It also doesn't help that the series was dead for about 25 years so when it comes to the legacy department, it isn't as strong as Ninja Gaiden or even Contra, both of which have stronger ties with Nintendo. And of course, whenever we talk about Sega, you can't forget about characters like Kiryu.

But I do have some confidence in Streets of Rage. It's up there with Double Dragon as one of, if not, the best beat em up series and is remembered fondly (even if it's not highly requested).

Want: 75%

Heck Yeah I want Streets of Rage in Smash. The beat em up genre deserves some love and Streets of Rage is a charming and cool series. The music is great and the aesthetics of the stage would be nice, plus cameos from bosses across the series would be much appreciated, especially if we can fight them. And if anyone calls Axel Terry 2.0, they are sorely mistaken.

Prediction: Civilization stage - 2% (This is such a cool idea and would be the best way to represent the series. But we have not gotten DLC standalone stages for this game)

Noms: Frank West x5