Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

I don't have your stone. And... wait, I should save that for the Alone in the Dark guy's day.

Chance: 20%. Axel is not without his positives here, if I must be honest. Streets of Rage 4 pretty much singlehandedly put him back into consideration as an actual contender. He's from an unrepresented genre. SEGA has, so far, given a DLC newcomer with every DLC cycle. So with all that, why is his score so low? He's got some... very heavy competition. Not only does he compete with Arle, Kiryu and Sakura for a position as a SEGA character, but he isn't even the clear cut candidate from his own series: we could still end up getting Blaze instead, who is basically about as prominent as him. Streets of Rage 4 is also an act of necromancy to a franchise that had been dead for ages, skipping not one, not two, but three generations worth of new games before returning in kind, which for a series that you have to license, is rather suboptimal that he hasn't had a game in 20 years. I think Sakurai would be willing to overlook this, but not Nintendo.

Want: 1%. Pity point because he deserves more than Ryo Hazuki or Segata Sanshiro. But besides that, I speak for myself. This is actually nothing personal: to be honest, I much agree that (in a post Arle or a non-Puyo world) Streets of Rage in Smash would be absolutely fantastic. Great music, great characters, great gameplay, potential for an awesome moveset... it's a shame I have to rate him so poorly. But as it stands, I'd be furious if he got in after taking a nap through the better part of my life.

SNES FF Rep x 5, and for Civ Stage I predict 0.59% because people will use precedent against it. Personally I think it's very unlikely for another reason, but that's for its day.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Do people expect standalone stages at all? 1%...

I know standalone stages are super unlikely but I mainly nominated it because it would be a new series to talk about in relation to smash. It also recently got a new release on the Switch, and I originally proposed a concept for a Civ rep as a playable character but the idea was rejected by the showrunners.

Feeling exhausted today so I'm gonna abstain on Axel. But I agree with what's been said about him. Recently revived IP that likely wasn't in consideration during FP2 negotiations, and heavy competition from SEGA's bigger franchises. While it has historical significance that would greatly appeal to Sakurai, I just don't see it happening.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Concept: Civilization series stage - 1.43%

 

[GoodGrief741]

You should all do yourselves a favor and give those SoR2 tunes a listen. Or several.

Won't make nominees since I don't know how to do that, sorry.

It's easy! Just pick a character you'd like rated, or a concept, and you can give them 5 nominations per day. If the character makes it to the top seven on the nominations list, it gets rated.

Now, if you want, you can distribute the 5 noms between several characters (like give 2 noms to character X and 3 to character Y).

Streets of Rage was in a dormant state for nearly 30 years.

30 years... Jesus **** that's a really long time.

 

[Calamitas]

Ah shoot, I completely missed Euden's day. . . well, no big deal.

I'm gonna double abstain on Axel, seeing as I barely know a thing about Streets of Rage.

Predicting the concept for a Civilization stage to get around 0.1%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily first-party x5.

 

[amageish]

I know standalone stages are super unlikely but I mainly nominated it because it would be a new series to talk about in relation to smash. It also recently got a new release on the Switch, and I originally proposed a concept for a Civ rep as a playable character but the idea was rejected by the showrunners.

Oh, I didn't mean to complain about the fact it's something we will be rating! I think it's an interesting thing to discuss. I just don't see it getting high scores in the "Chance" column haha.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Alleyways of Anger
Chance: 2.5%
This character has really rissen in popularity recently. Kinda figured a new game had something to do with that. I think Streets of Rage 4 was too late for this pass tho. It was stil in development when the lineup was being decided but since there's a 26 year gap between that game and Streets of Rage 3, I think Nintendo would've considered Axel a bit too much of a gamble. It's a good thing the new game is being well received by critics and fans but I think the timing just doesn't fit here. Ignoring the new release altogether, I definitely don't think Axel would be granted a spot on the roster by the series own merits with how dormant it has been all this time. That's also not mentioning the huge competition Axel faces from other SEGA characters, Arle and Kiryu in particular.

Want: Abstaining

Civilization stage: 1.16%
Dr Eggman x3
Captain Toad x2

 

[Ninjaed]

Alleyways of Anger
Chance: 2.5%
This character has really rissen in popularity recently. Kinda figured a new game had something to do with that. I think Streets of Rage 4 was too late for this pass tho. It was stil in development when the lineup was being decided but since there's a 26 year gap between that game and Streets of Rage 3, I think Nintendo would've considered Axel a bit too much of a gamble. It's a good thing the new game is being well received by critics and fans but I think the timing just doesn't fit here. Ignoring the new release altogether, I definitely don't think Axel would be granted a spot on the roster by the series own merits with how dormant it has been all this time. That's also not mentioning the huge competition Axel faces from other SEGA characters, Arle and Kiryu in particular.

Want: Abstaining

Civilization stage: 1.16%
Dr Eggman x3
Captain Toad x2

Concerning the timing, you're not the only one who said it doesn't help Axel's chances... but that's false. The game has been in the works for quite some time now. You can actually find gameplay footage from like 7 months ago on youtube, and people had been invited to playtest way before that too. Meaning there was awareness of a new game in the franchise coming in 2 years or so. Besides, Axel's look and kit would mostly be inspired from his SoR 2 incarnation, not the newest one. SoR4 wouldn't matter much there, so I don't see how that's a negative. There are negatives mind you, but this isn't one imo.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Concerning the timing, you're not the only one who said it doesn't help Axel's chances... but that's false. The game has been in the works for quite some time now. You can actually find gameplay footage from like 7 months ago on youtube, and people had been invited to playtest way before that too. Meaning there was awareness of a new game in the franchise coming in 2 years or so. Besides, Axel's look and kit would mostly be inspired from his SoR 2 incarnation, not the newest one. SoR4 wouldn't matter much there, so I don't see how that's a negative. There are negatives mind you, but this isn't one imo.

I said the game was still in development, not that people weren't aware of it or that there wasn't a playtest version already. It's the official release I think matters here, which I just think happened too recently.

I also don't doubt that if Axel were to get in, he'd be based on a more classic incarnation. But I still believe SoR4 would have to count as a major factor for his inclusion regardless. If it weren't for that game I would've just given Axel a 0% here.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Axel Stone
Chance: 30%
While I think he's a dark horse worth keeping an eye on and arguably the frontrunner for beat em ups (with River City and Final Fight basically down for the count), he's not the first Sega choice that comes to mind (that spot belonging to Arle and/or Kiryu), I believe. And even with a new game just out, the series was inactive for a really long time and, as far as I'm aware, didn't have a lot of demand in that timeframe.

Want:10%
Honestly, while I think the genre deserves more love... I don't have a strong connection to most of these games, meaning I rely on mechanics to sell me on the idea. And imo, there aren't that many interesting things to do with Axel - the best gimmick I've seen so far is a kind of self-damaging mechanic that was proposed by Sari (I think). And I still want Arle more as far as Sega reps go, so... yeah.

Predictions
Civilization stage: 0,55%

Nominations (how I got extra noms on Bubsy day, of all days, I have no idea)
Ahri x 15

 

[BowserKing]

Axel

Chance: 10%. He has some popularity on his side, in addition to having some good chance of appearing in this game. But the main issue I see the fierce competition between thousands of fighters, and while he is more likely to appear then some, competition could defeat him, but it's not impossible however.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about this franchise, at least until I joined Smashboards, but Axel would be a fun character to play as. He may have some moveset potential and music potential as well. Overall, he would be a decent rep that would help promote his franchise.

Prediction: civilization stage: 10%

Noms: 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 3 for Meowth

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, pertaining to the previous day; the amount of hate Euden gets for being a mobile gacha game character is depressing. It has genuinely good gameplay, consistent story updates, and is actually GENEROUS with its gacha material distribution compared to other mobile games. If there’s any other mobile game that gives you said materials just for watching a CUTSCENE?

Recent example:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Sari]

Damn, a lot of you gotta play some Streets of Rage when you get a chance. This really cool writer on SmashBoards wrote a big article on Axel in case you want to know more about him and his series as a whole. Also each of the original three games are only $1 on Steam.

Axel Stone

Chance: 20%
When it comes to another Sega character, I'd say Axel is one of the underdog frontrunners. Streets of Rage is one of the most classic beat 'em up series of all time - a series that has yet to truly be represented in Smash. Streets of Rage 2 in particular is widely regarded the greatest game of its genre as well as one of the best Genesis games. Meanwhile Streets of Rage 4 was announced back in 2018 meaning it was in the right time frame for possible DLC consideration.

As for things hindering Axel's inclusion, he might have to compete with other beat 'em up series like Final Fight and Double Dragon if Sakurai ever wanted to represent that genre through a character. Definitely the biggest hurdle for Axel's chances is competition with other Sega characters like Arle Nadja. Also while not too likely, there is a slight chance that he'd have to compete with fellow SoR character Blaze.

Oh yeah speaking of Blaze, I recently learned that a hip hop record producer for Jay-Z goes by the name Just Blaze which is a direct reference to the SoR character of the same name. Really shows how much SoR means to some people.

Want: 100%
By far my most wanted Sega character. Streets of Rage has always been a favorite of mine and having a fun beat 'em up character like Axel would be amazing. Heck, it'd be worth getting a SoR character for the music alone; if it weren't for my three song limit, I probably would've posted the entire series OST in the music post.

Also go play Streets of Rage 4! It's the perfect example of a reboot done right plus it has a godly soundtrack.

Civilization stage chance prediction: 0.95%

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Oh, I didn't mean to complain about the fact it's something we will be rating! I think it's an interesting thing to discuss. I just don't see it getting high scores in the "Chance" column haha.

No worries, you're all good! :3 I just wanted to explain the history behind the choice xD

 

[Deleted member]

Axel

Chance: 25%

So I believe Vol 2 will have a Beat-Em-Up franchise in it, but the question for that is which franchise would be chosen between Double Dragon and Streets of Rage. Both of these games define the Beat Em Up genre and have the great nostalgia factor to them, but they also share some differences as well. On 1 hand, Streets of Rage 4 came out this year and has been receiving very positive reviews which pretty much gives the series relevancy currently and will probably win a good amount of awards by the end of the year while Double Dragon IV wasn't received all that well back in 2017. On the other hand, Double Dragon has more installments on Nintendo platforms than Streets of Rage since this was during the time SEGA was making consoles, so if Nintendo are looking for characters with historical ties to their consoles, Double Dragon would be the 1 for it. In that regard, I think Double Dragon would be more favorable for the spot than Streets of Rage, but it's not like it doesn't have less than a quarter of a chance to be in Smash cause both games pretty much have equal appeal to them.

Want: 85%

While I do prefer Billy and Jimmy, Axel is still a great pick to rep the Beat Em Up genre. I don't know Streets of Rage all that well, but I'm open to seeing the franchise in Smash cause it's equal to Double Dragon in regards to the Beat Em Up genre within gaming history and the nostalgia points. Plus, it's not like many people within the Smash community really think we're getting a Beat Em Up character, so I'd love to see the surprise factor to if Axel is in Vol 2. Of course, some people will be ******* about it anyways, but the appreciation from those that love Streets of Rage and Beat Em Up games will outweigh all that.
-------------------
Predictions:
Civ Stage rep: 0.41%
-------------------
Noms:
Lu Bu x10

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain, actually haven't played SoR... Ever.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Axel Stone
Chance: 2%
I think it's highly unlikely that Streets of Rage would be popular enough or historically significant enough to be chosen by Nintendo. I suspect that the 4th entry just releasing is the major reason it's being discussed at the moment. SEGA has franchises that I presume would be higher priority for Nintendo.
Want: 20%
I like SoR4's aesthetic. I'm impressed with how well-animated the characters are. Aside from that, I don't have a history with the franchise so I wouldn't put him in my most-wanted list.

Nomination: Concept: Fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bare Knuckle (is a terrible name)

Chance: 12%
Streets of Rage is a classic beat-em-up franchise, well known for being pretty much the face of the genre in the 90s and one of Sega's hallmark IPs. It, and the genre as a whole, kinda died after that and only saw a resurgence recently (which is weird, you'd think the wave of indie retro titles like Castle Crashers and the Scott Pilgrim game would have spurred them back sooner, but I digress). Streets of Rage 4 came out like last month to very positive reviews (can't wait to get my hands on it! Though I probably will have to because I can't see shipments of new games coming in for a long time and I ain't buying digital), so the series has made a big comeback. If it was Sakurai picking I'd be more bullish, as this is right up his alley.

Sakurai isn't picking, it's Nintendo. They and Sega are bound to be looking at series that are a bigger deal for both of them - Nintendo wants to incentivize Sega to put those games on the Switch, and Sega will want the free promotion. I don't know if Streets of Rage matches that. It was in development, sure, but I can't imagine them being that confident in what by all means is a retro-style game done by a small developer, versus their cash cows and rising stars. I just feel the timing isn't in Axel's favor.

Another thing I want to point out is the competition in the genre. Let's assume that what Nintendo wants is a beat em up rep. We can take Mike Haggar out of the equation because Capcom has bigger fish. That pretty much leaves us with Axel vs. the Lee Brothers. I'm not sure who wins that fight. Double Dragon was also quite the big deal, and it also had a modern revival. ArcSys, the company that owns Double Dragon, is already involved in Smash as well, though they have in-house characters that might be prioritized. And Double Dragon has naturally been more synonymous with Nintendo than Streets of Rage. So that's very strong competition at the end of the day.

Want: 87%
I love beat em ups so of course I'm a fan of SoR. How can you not? It's the genre taken to its pinnacle of style, setting and substance. A Streets of Rage rep, any Streets of Rage rep, would make for some of the most exciting content a third party could bring.

Really, score's not higher because there's other Sega characters that would probably make me happier; and I know a guy who would probably explode in joy if Kiryu made it in, so I'm rooting for him moreso.

Noms: Kasumi x5
Civ stage prediction: 0.23%

Okay, pertaining to the previous day; the amount of hate Euden gets for being a mobile gacha game character is depressing. It has genuinely good gameplay, consistent story updates, and is actually GENEROUS with its gacha material distribution compared to other mobile games. If there’s any other mobile game that gives you said materials just for watching a CUTSCENE?

Recent example:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

This is very much off-topic so I won't respond, but it amazes me how much people are willing to defend exploitative business tactics.

I think it's highly unlikely that Streets of Rage would be popular enough or historically significant enough to be chosen by Nintendo.

Come on, Streets of Rage isn't historically significant? Gimme a break.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Dragalia Lost rep pre-Axel Stone

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x115
Junko & Monokuma x110
Guardian (Destiny) x105
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x100
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x95
Meowth x87
Brian (Quest 64) x85

100 - 51

Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x75
Ahri (League of Legends) x70
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x65
Gordon Freeman x65
[Rerate] Steve x60
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x60
Frank West x55
Dr. Eggman x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x50
Terra Branford x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x25
Louie x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Stage: Bowser's Castle x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Fulgore x15
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x15
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x15
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Captain Toad x12
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
Zelda (BotW sequel) x10
Red (Angry Birds) x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep proves it is truly ichi as it takes the top spot from Junko & Monokuma. Guardian shoots past 100 noms.

Frank West and Dr. Eggman break past the 50 nom boundary.

Louie flees the under 25 club.

From the depths of hell, a new contender emerges. It's Diablo, with 5 noms!

 

[PeridotGX]

The forgotten infinity stone

Chance - 1%. Streets of Rage has some legacy behind it, but likely not enough to be added without some other factor. It's only had one game in the past 25 years (which released barely two weeks ago), and Axel doesn't have the massive fan demand Banjo had to be added in spite of the lack of games. Axel faces steep competition from other Sega characters, like Arle, AiAi, Kiryu, and even a second Sonic character. All in all, I can't see him being added.

Want - Abstain. I barely know anything about Streets of Rage, and I didn't know Axel existed until about a week ago. I get it's big and influential to it's genre, but it's absolutely not something I'm interested in.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. Never played Streets of Rage.

Nominations: Brian (Quest 64) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Min Min
54.16% Chance - 73.26% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 56.12%
Min Min, as some of you probably predicted, is now the most likely first party character in DLC history. As far as ARMS characters go, she's also the most wanted, so either the ARMS fandom can sure pick 'em, or people just like a winner.

Master Mummy
4.10% Chance - 31.88% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.16%
In terms of ARMS characters, he's the least likely and wanted so far.

Mechanica
7.43% Chance - 39.71% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 5.71%

Concept: Dragalia Lost rep
29.00% Chance - 44.36% Want
Last time we rated this it got 14.59% chance and 26.19% want. This was pre-Byleth, and I guess after 4 third parties any first party franchise, even one with no base game content, looked pretty grim. This obviously saw a drastic rise in want; I'd probably attribute it to a lot of people with less of an attachment to DL simply abstaining (in fact, I thought it was going to get a higher want, maybe even record breaking, as at first it was getting solely scores between 90 and 100). However, people being more open to first parties and DL's many collabs might also have widened its appeal.
Winner of predictions were Perkilator and DaUsername by virtue of being the highest predictions, with a precise 30.00%

Extra noms

3BitSaurus 10
amageish 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 20
DaUsername 77
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 53
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 10
Troykv 15
@Velveeta Dream 5
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
Wunderwaft 15

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone)

Predict Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon

Day will probably end a bit after Monday afternoon.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Civilization mood:

Spoiler: Civilization Music

 

[Perkilator]

“How uncivilized.” -Obi Wan Kenobi, 19 BBY
Chance: Abstain
I don’t know pepper jack cheese about Civilization, other than it being a…town-building simulator. I don’t know how popular it is, so I can’t fairly say 0% chance.

Want: 0%
That being said, I do know that I’d rather not have one. I mean, we already have a Tomadachi Life stage, so Civilization would be kinda redundant.

Gen 8 Pokémon: 20%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x10

 

[Neosonic97]

Chance: Abstain
I don’t know pepper jack cheese about Civilization, other than it being a…town-building simulator. I don’t know how popular it is, so I can’t fairly say 0% chance.

Civ is actually closer to a 4X type game- a turn-based strategy game- you're actively competing with other civilisations to race to one of a number of victory conditions.

Regardless, here are my own thoughts...

Chance: oof (0%)
What would the stage even be? The Civilization series has a number of different maps, but they all feature the same core elements to them- assuming you're talking about the Sid Meier's Civilization series, that is. I mean, I've clocked quite a few hours messing around with mods in Civ 5.

Want: Abstain.
I really don't know how to feel on a stage from the series, should it show up.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

I miss Clone High.
(sorry if the video is a little off-topic, im just salty how Clone High got cancelled over Gandhi and yet Gandhi nukes people left and right and nobody gives a damn)

Chance:1%
I mean.............it's a video game series, that counts. Are Public History figures fair game?

I don't think this is likely. Sure we got a Standalone Mario Maker stage in Smash 4 as DLC, but the way Smash 4 and Ult's DLC are structured are differently. Plus, if we get a standalone stage, it's likelier to be a promotional stage for a recent Nintendo game over a third party series. We still haven't gotten a Third Party stage without a playable rep.

Want::0%

No thanks. I don't care for this series and don't see the potential for it in Smash. I do think it's a noteworthy franchise, but not one im not interesed in seeing represented.

Noms:
Terra Branford X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Streets of Rage Character

Chance - 5% - The franchise has been supper dormant until recently, and I think the newest game may have been too soon. While the series has had some fame, I think Sega and Nintendo would rather have their faces otherwise.

Want - 60% - I'm more interested in other beat-em-ups, but I'm fine with them. A feel like a beat-em-up is a natural fit without being overly-complex like the character-action or fighting game characters, who end up with way too many mechanics to my liking.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[PeridotGX]

haha ghandi go boom

Chance - 0%. We don't seem to be getting solo stages in this game, and Civ doesn't feel like the series that would be an exception. It's not happening.

Want - 40%. You don't need to have played the game to appreciate the concept of George Washington chucking nukes at Nobunaga. It's even better if it's in the "other" stages, so you can put it to the tune of Megalovania. So long as the layout's good, I'm all in.

Noms: PMD rep x5

 

[DaUsername]

Personally, I prefer Axel Steel
Chance: 15%
The Streets of Rage franchise has had somewhat of a weird history. After having a trilogy of decently successful games on the Genesis, there was a fourth game planned for the Saturn, but it was cancelled because the head of Sega America at the time was intentionally trying to kill the company. Then after that, 25 years of nothing but a few rereleases, until some fans asked if they could just make the game themselves, and Sega said "yeah sure whatever", and last week, Streets of Rage 4 finally released.
As far as Smash goes, I'm not too sure about his inclusion. He isn't really that highly requested and his series just ended a 25 year hiatus a week ago. If get another Sega character that isn't from one of the already represented franchises, I could maybe see him happening, but aside from that, I don't know.
Want: N/A because I'm running out of time

Civ prediction: 0.6%
Noms: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[Calamitas]

So I guess that as of right now, Smash is uncivilized?

Chance: 0%
This once's simple. Western developer, not particularly popular or frequently brought up within the Smash community, questionable popularity or presence in Japan. In addition to that, Smash Ultimate has yet to receive standalone stage DLC of any kind, and with the model of the Fighter Passes, it's looking ridicilously unlikely that this is going to happen. Any chance score above 0% would be generous.

Want: 0%
Yeah, no. As far as I know, the series is primarily based around real life history and the like, and I don't need to see that in Smash with a stage.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily first-party x5

Predicting a Gen 8 Pokémon to get around 33.44%.

 

[Ninjaed]

Civ stage

Chance: 0%
Actually voting for "standalone stage" in general here, because I don't see them releasing any. If they're releasing a stage, it'd have to go with some music... meaning negotiations and all, so given all the effort they'd have to put in, it's come with a fighter too - in other words, as a challenger pack. Besides, we're talking Civ which has limited ties to Nintendo. I just don't see what would justify Civ of all franchises out there getting an hypothetical standalone stage.

Want: 5%
Even if we get new stages, standalone or in a pack, the competitive scene will never acknowledge them as viable anyway, so what's the point? It could be nice for casual smash but we already have so many different stages now that I don't really feel the need for more. It'll always be welcome but they aren't a priority.

Predictions: Concept: gen 8 pokémon - 57%

Nominations: Concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Civilization Stage

Chance: 1% - As much as I love Civilization, it's in a tough spot right now. It isn't likely that a real life historical figure would be allowed as a character, and standalone stages don't currently fit into the current pass format. Plus it's technically a Western franchise, which indeed complicates negotiations.

However, the Civilization series does have plenty of points in its' favor.

The biggest ones are Nintendo history and recency. Like the Elder Scrolls, the Civilization series continued regularly and never went dormant, and became an influential juggernaut for the 4x/Turn Based Strategy Genre. In fact, Civ 6 pretty recently got a Switch port, along with both expansions a few months ago. There were even some specially made and crafted "introduction to Civ" videos on Nintendo's channel made just for them, so in a way it shows a healthy relationship. Civ has had two main series games (Civ 1 SNES, Civ 6 Switch) and one spinoff (Civ Revolution DS), which shows a good amount of Nintendo history, and is much more than can be said about other popular requested newcomers. So saying "limited Nintendo history" doesn't work as an argument here.

For a Western 3rd party, it also has what a lot of them don't: popularity worldwide, and most importantly in Japan. There's a surprising amount of Civ fanart on Pixiv and for a mainly PC series it's done very well over there. There's also its' historical significance, which of course would be a natural attraction for Sakurai.

The concept isn't looking likely due to the format of the pass, but if Civ can get over either of the hurdles it could very well surprise us!

Want: 100% - I absolutely adore the Civilization series, being one of my favorite non-Nintendo franchises. If we can't get a character there are all sorts of fun things that one can do with a stage, with maybe some random generation elements thrown in just like a Civ map. Furthermore, if we can't have one of the leaders be playable, why not have them as KOF Stadium-esque cameos? They could be doing diplomacy in the background and the results could have an effect on stage obstacles. Like if they start a war, their actual units could come moving through the stage at random, and you can attack said units to gain rewards from the opposite leader at the end of the "war" (kinda WarioWare Inc.-esque). There's a lot of potential here! Civ 4 and Civ 5 bring a lot of extremely positive memories for me and I continue to mod Civ 5 to this day, so seeing the series get the Smash treatment in some form would be fantastic!


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Gen 8 Pokemon - 58.24%

 

[DanganZilla5]

We live in a society civilization

Chance: 0.10%

Civilization is a notable series and Civ 6 is on Switch. And that's all the positives I can say. Civ is associated with PC and has very little Nintendo presence (though TIL there was a Civ game on Wii and DS). I did some research and couldn't find anything about Civ's popularity in Japan. But considering that its a western series with little demand and little Nintendo history, I can't see it get a stage. Plus I don't think we are getting standalone stages in this game. It happened it with Smash 4, but Ultimate's DLC is being handled in a different way. Besides, even if we get standalone stages, there are likely other series with stronger ties with Nintendo that will get a stage. I can't see Civilization of all series getting a stage, even if it's the most appropriate way to represent the series.

Want: 75%

While I would prefer Pac Maze, Rainbow Road, or Jungle Hijinx to return, a Civilization stage would be so cool. I played Civ 5 a while ago and while I didn't play it for too long because I didn't know what to do, I still enjoyed my time with the game. In order to best represent the series, I feel that the stage would be a travel stage. It would start out in a tribe and the Smash characters will travel to different regions at their different points in history and level of civilization. They can even be creative with how the Smash characters travel. Walking, trains, vehicles, etc. There is a lot of creative potential and I would love to see how Sakurai and his team would bring a stage to reality in Smash. Plus I took this time to listen to some of the music and it's quite good in my opinion. So many tracks to choose from.

Prediction: Gen 8 Pokemon - 50%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[Sari]

Since just about every DLC Smash stage has some sort of background cameo, does this mean we'd get to see Gandhi and Stalin cheer us on in battle?

Chance: 0.1%
I don't see standalone stages in general being a thing unless its to promote some new first party game. The Civilization series is mostly popular on PC so I really don't see any reason why Nintendo would go for this third party series to get a stage when there are a bunch of more Nintendo-related candidates.

Want: 0%
I tried to get into the Civ series a while back but just couldn't. When it comes to historical strategy games, I've always been more of an Age of Empires and Stronghold type of guy. Not to mention if we were to get extra stages, I'd much prefer a bunch of other series have priority first.

Gen 8 Pokemon chance prediction: 46.93% (I swear this is like the 7th Pokemon rating we've done in the past 3 months)

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ghandi goes rogue
Chance: 0%
At this point, I don't see standalone stages in general happening anymore, especially not brand new ones. It's just too late for that imo. Even if it by chance would still happen, I don't see why they'd go for an unrepped third-party series and that being Civilization of all things. If your gonna make a new stage with new music from a franchise new to Smash, why not just commit to a fighter at that point. I know Civilization isn't a viable choice for that so I don't why they would bother with that series instead of other tird-parties with actual demand.

Want: 10%
The more stages the merrier I guess. I do think that if standalone stages happen, there'd be way better options to spend development time on. Not to throw shade at Civilization but I can probably think of many more exciting and iconic locals from games that aren't fortunate enough to be part of the pass.

Gen 8 Pokemon: 35.64%
Papyrus x15

 

[Drason]

Civilization Stage
Chance: 1%
Don't really see it happening, not sure how something like Civilization which is mainly a managing RPG based on real-world places. Though most of the places would probably be interesting but I don't see Nintendo or Sakurai paying much attention to it
Want: 25%
Some of the settings are interesting and I can see them really making the most out of whatever world they choose. I also really want to see nuclear Gandhi in the background

Nominations: Nightmare (SoulCalibur) [If he's' eligible of course]

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Baba yetu yetu uliye

Chance: 1%
Let me preface this by saying that I don't think we'll get standalone stages. And if we do, they'll be like Mario Maker, exceptional situations to promote a first party game that was deemed difficult or cumbersome to promote through a fighter. And honestly I don't feel Civ lends itself to a stage very well, what can you have, any random ancient city? I guess you could have a city being built as you fight, but it doesn't scream Civ to me. Civ just isn't a series that lends itself to Smash representation.

Want: 1%
I like Civ, but I could not care less about including it. None of what it could offer, stage, music, or even Spirit-wise, is compelling. Civ would be the prime example of a series that deserves to get in but that has nothing to add to Smash. The 1% is because I guess it wouldn't hurt to get more stages, and because it gets 2K in Smash, therefore making us one step closer to a GTA character.

Noms: Kasumi x5
Gen 8 Pokémon prediction: *sigh* 37%

That being said, I do know that I’d rather not have one. I mean, we already have a Tomadachi Life stage, so Civilization would be kinda redundant.

I can't see how a Civ stage would be in any way similar to Tomodachi Life. Civ isn't a town building game as you seem to think, so a stage wouldn't be a building.

Sick Obi-Wan joke though.

Civ has had two main series games (Civ 1 SNES, Civ 6 Switch) and one spinoff (Civ Revolution DS), which shows a good amount of Nintendo history, and is much more than can be said about other popular requested newcomers.

I like to believe that we are not living in the timeline in which Katalina is popular.

 

[Jomosensual]

Another abstain because I tried for a while to come up with something to say here and couldn't get anything together


Prediction
Gen 8 Pokemon 30 %

Noms
The Stretchers x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

By this point, if I type Civilization, my phone autocompletes the rest of the concept, so that's neat

Spoiler: Nominations post-Axel Stone pre-Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone)

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x120
Junko & Monokuma x110
Guardian (Destiny) x105
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x100
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x95
Meowth x90
Brian (Quest 64) x90

100 - 51

Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x85
Ahri (League of Legends) x85
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Gordon Freeman x75
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x70
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x65
[Rerate] Steve x60
Frank West x60
Dr. Eggman x56
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Terra Branford x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x37
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x30
Louie x30
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x20
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Stage: Bowser's Castle x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Fulgore x15
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x15
Zelda (BotW sequel) x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
Red (Angry Birds) x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
The Stretchers x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Brian ties with Meowth for sixth place.

Kasumi fights past 50 noms.

The Stretchers and Asuka join the nominations list, with 5 noms each.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Civilization.

Nominations: Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x5