Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[amageish]

Standalone Civilization Stage

Chance: 0.5%. I don't expect standalone stages, but I don't think it's entirely impossible. Well, at least it isn't as improbable then some of the other things I've seen people predicting being sold alongside the final fighter's pass... I could see them wanting to round things out as it is basically confirmed that this is the Final Smash game of this size, even if it's not the be-all and end-all of Smash. That said, I don't know how well the standalone stages sold on the Wii U and I imagine DLC sales would be slightly lesser now as Smash Bros isn't as new anyway. So, I wouldn't rule it out, but wouldn't hold my breadth for it either.

As for a Civilization stage in particular... It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. By world-building strategy game standards, Civilization has a lot more connections to Nintendo then most do. It's also an iconic franchise in its own right. I don't know how well it has sold in Japan, but I can say that the PlayStation Vita version of Civilization Revolution 2 included 3 extra leaders for Japan (Togo, Nobunaga, and Himiko). So... I'm assuming that indicates that they were catering to a Japanese audience, if the fact that they released a PlayStation Vita game in 2015 didn't indicate that in of itself. Problem is that it's a western company and it'd be a lot of work for recognizing a franchise without considerable demand. It'd be a good way to represent a new aspect of gaming history, but would that representation sell well enough to justify doing it? I'm not sure...

As 2K continues their support of the Switch, I could see some 2K franchise getting a spirit event if nothing else.

Want: 80%. Look, I love the incongruence of Smash Bros. I like seeing things come together in weird ways. I have been wanting a stage based on a real-life place for a while now and this would be a hilarious way of doing it (though, yes, I know we effectively have the Effiel Tower and New York (twice) already). Also, Civilization music is mostly (if not all?) remixes of public domain songs, but I like the remixes of public domain songs. So, overall, this is a fun idea, if an unlikely one.

Prediction: Gen 8 Pokemon. Oh boy... 40%.

Noms: Eh, I'll actually get about the Kasumi train... The DoA Kasumi, to be clear. DoA Kasumi x10.

 

[BowserKing]

Civilization Stage

Chance: 10%. While it would be an interesting stage, the chance of it showing up would be quite low. Plus there are many other stages that would be competing with it plus the work on it, but then again, it's not impossible.

Want: 50% it would be a fun stage to play on, and if there is construction going it, then that would give the stage uniqueness, but then again, things are becoming possible as time goes on. Overall, it would be an interesting stage to participate in many battles in Smash.

Prediction: Generation 8 Pokémon (30%)

Noms: 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[Ridrool64]

Totals coming later. For now, just civ.

Chance: 0%. Not only is it the power of precedent (in regards to individual stages), but, where exactly does Civilization take place? Judging by how Gandhi is a character in the series, it seems to take place in real life (albeit, history, and even then also a somewhat to very fictionalized account of it), so by default it's disqualified. Even then, it falls into the same trap as Ryo Hazuki did: where Smash representation doesn't really work for this kind of series.

Want: Nah, I'll pass. Besides the whole Ghandi thing, I couldn't care less about Civilization and it getting a stage means it isn't eating a pass slot, so, w/e, I don't have an opinion here.

Sari since I was the guy who nominated Music Packs, I know it's a concept that doesn't technically have music to itself (nor is it the next rating), but before I forget. If you could put in some "notable to glaring absences" in the music we have in Smash, like God-Shattering Star, Life Will Change or Endless Possibilities for the music post that'd be nice.

A Gen 8 Pokémon in general... 43.20%. We're going to have a split of optimists and pessimists. Which one is the high raters and the low raters is up to you to decide. Red x 5. Considering Terra Branford is so close by, I think it might be a good idea to pace out her rating and the SNES Era FF rep, because it technically includes her as well. At least by a week's worth.

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. I don't really have much to say about Civ. If we get this, we need a Ghandi nuke hazard though

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Civ Stage

Chance - 0% - I have very little faith in a solo third party stage, period. Civilization does not have what it takes to break it in the first place; it is definitely a more PC oriented franchise. I think overall their priorities will lie elsewhere.

Want - 50% - I enjoyed Civilization, but it's not exactly something I have a burning need to see in Smash. I have no strong opinions, and don't care much either way if it was made.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Civ Stage
Chance: 1%, I think the stage developers have enough on their plate with the 6 stages coming from the fighter pass. Even if they had extra time to make standalone DLC stages, I’d imagine it would be easier to get the rights to fully Nintendo owned properties

Want: 100%, holy **** I’d love a Civ stage! Think there’s a lot of fun things to do, such as a stage layout changing as you go through the eras with various world wonders from across the world in the background. Baba Yetu is legitimately one of my all time favorite songs, I would die if it got into Smash with a Civ stage.

 

[NintenRob]

Civ Stage
Double 0
I don't really know anything about the civilisation series, you'd think that means I should abstain. But nope, I don't think we're getting any standalone stages, and if we did, it would probably be a returning stage from something new. In Smash 4, only Mario Maker was a new stage that wasn't tied to a newcomer (unless you count Miiverse I guess, it's weird thinking about that stage now). Civilisation would also be so random, why would it get a stage? Of every franchise out there, why Civilization?

Nominate no third parties in this pass x10

Prediction 21% Pokemon

 

[Calamitas]

Chance: 10%. While it would be an interesting stage, the chance of it showing up would be quite low. Plus there are many other stages that would be competing with it plus the work on it, but then again, it's not impossible.

Sometimes I really wonder where you get these chance scores from.

 

[DaUsername]

The only video game to win a Grammy
Chance: 0%
I don't think we're gonna get a third party stage that doesn't come with a character. And there's isn't really anything pointing to the inclusion of a Civ character in Smash. Does this series even have any original characters?
Want: N/A

Pokemon prediction: 45%
Noms: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

The only video game to win a Grammy
Does this series even have any original characters?

Can't wait to play as full FMV Elvis advisor

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon rep.

Predict Concept: Level-5 rep (lots of concepts this week)

Day will end either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Sword/Shield mood:

Spoiler: Gen 8 Pokemon Music Yet Again

 

[Perkilator]

I liked Sword, even though I don’t play it that much.
Chance: 50%
I’ve said this before, but while the Gen 8 Spirit Event back in November doesn’t help, the meager amount of Pokémon they used does FAR from deconfirm any. There’s still over 100 Gen 8 Pokémon, and the Vol. 2 roster was decided in (or, for all we know, as of) November 2019, when Byleth’s presentation was aired. Sword and Shield were close to launch in November, so for all we know, a Pokémon from that game COULD’VE been decided.

Want: 80%
There are some Pokémon I want more than others, but I don’t care. Galar has so many great Pokémon to choose from, I could feature some in a Pokken sequel and get away with it. Cinderace, Toxtricity, Sirfetch’d, Zacian, Obstagoon, Zamazenta, even ALCREMIE. A lot of Pokémon would be naturally fun for Ultimate.

Level-5 Rep: 40%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh, joy

Double zeroes. If they were planning to have a Pokemon from Sword and Shield, they wouldn't have done that Spirit event. It's not like the Spirits themselves disconfirm the characters they stand for, it's that if they were planning for a Gen 8 Pokemon to be one of the fighters at the time, they'd have just saved the Spirits for later. And given the timing of the Spirit Event, they absolutely knew the plans for FPV2, so that kills it.

I want no more Pokemon in Ultimate. Let's stop the preferential treatment already. Give the spot to a series that could use it more or a character that people want. Plus they'd do the uninspired thing and go for a starter final stage, and I don't like any of those.

Noms: forgot whose turn it was today so I'll check and edit this. In case I forget though, just make it whoever's lower between Kasumi and Terra
Edit 2: it's Terra. Terra x5
Level-5 prediction: I get the uneasy feeling that it'll be much lower than the glory days of Layton. 42.55%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Gen 8'nner

Chance: 50%

While the spirit event probably deconfirms the starters, there are other Pokemon they could (and probably will) promote. I'm thinking one of the Pokemon they are making for the DLC expansion pass like Urshifu will be picked. It may just be pessimism but Nintendo is the one choosing the characters so we are definitely going to get a Blyleth-style pick in this pass and if it's not something else like a Metroid or Zelda character, it will be a Pokemon.

Want: 20%

Meh. My interest in Pokemon is still really low at this point and there are not many Gen 8 Pokemon I would be really excited about. Give other franchises like Xenoblade and Golden Sun a shot already.

Prediction: Level 5 rep - 35% (This will come down to Jibanyan and Layton)

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[NintenRob]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Definitely one of the more controversial topics in terms of newcomers, one I don't know how to feel about myself. I'll start however by saying I don't think the spirit event deconfirmed it. Maybe the Pokemon in it are deconfirmed, but the spirit event was to promote the game on its release, a character in the second wave wouldn't be able to promote the game so close to its release window.

But which Pokemon would they choose? Cinderace is the clear fan favourite at this point, but he'd be our third fire starter (seriously **** you Incineroar) if they had gone with Decidueye like they should have then he'd be perfect to get our three solo starter Pokemon. But now people are saying Rillaboom, who is by far the weakest and least popular starter. If they pick him because they chose Incineroar last time, then seriously, **** you Incineroar. You're literally the worst Pokemon ever.

But what about someone who isn't a starter, Toxtricity is a fan favourite right now, and while being a fan favourite may not help depending on when the characters were chosen, it does seem like Gamefreak had some sort of plan with it, given its secret Gigantamax form (which is depicted on a hillside) and it's baby form being a gift Pokemon, an argument could be made. Sure it has two forms, but the they don't play that differently from each other and could easily be pallete swaps.

Of course there's the pseudo legendary Dragapult who won Galar Pokemon of the Year, although it was probably too late to affect anything.


Ugh I dunno. I'll spitball

Chance 20%
Want 15%

Maybe I'd feel more positive about it if they didn't **** things up and pick Incineroar last time. What a stupid waste of a Pokemon. I think I'd rather if Torracat just didn't have an evolution.


Nominate no third parties in this pass x5

Prediction level 5 21%

 

[fogbadge]

hmm gen 8 you say? well

chances: 50% while its true pokemon does like the focus to be on the newest and the first gen can we really be sure this would carry over into dlc? i means its perfectly reasonable that nintendo suggested a gen 8 pokemon but would sakurai go for it? this the first time a new pokemon gen has come out suring a smash games dlc cycle so its all new territory

want: 100% well itd depend who it was like last time ill be very disappointed if we get the fire starter, apart from him i dont think theres any gen 8 pokemon id be disappointed with. but i really want them to try a more ambitious pokemon that might not translate so easily into smash like corviknight, centiscorch or poltegiest.

if i may nominate a generic goron and a generic zora

 

[Cadillac]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 1%
It's pretty tricky, but I doubt a Pokemon newcomer is happening. Like people said there was the SwSh spirit event, and who knows? There's a chance that we'll get another spirit event with the dlc happening. And given that Sakurai said he wanted to 'satisfy' the fans or whatever, I think he would put another Pokemon and give that spot to someone like Sora.

Want: 0%
I'm pretty tired of Pokemon newcomers. We had one every single game, and in this game we got one. Now they are looking for a spot on dlc? That's next level FE stuff. Spirit event is a thing, but why should they be the first to break it? Why can't characters like Leon or AS protags be first? I feel like they just get away with 'too many fighters' complaints with 'it's Pokemon' and I don't like that.

Noms: Saki Amamiya x5

Level-5 rep: 24.57%

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chances: 50%. I'd have believed the Spirit Event actually meant something if it included every single plausible newcomer, but it doesn't. It in fact shows there's tons of unique and notable possibilities. In addition to that, there's a new DLC story coming out that has unused Pokemon. Even if we don't get a new Pokemon, the chances of another Spirit Event are about 99% as is, since it's an all new part of the game not even slightly noted in Smash yet. And it's Pokemon. To comment on the "they would've waited", no they wouldn't. The whole point of it was to advertise Pokemon Sword/Shield as the base game. DLC was not going to come out for a significantly longer time, so it couldn't be advertised. They are not going to wait that long just because. These are two different parts of the game being represented. Base Game and DLC. The logical thing to do is give love to the base, and then do a Spirit Event or Character with a Spirit Board to represent Sword/Shield DLC, which is a game expansion, later. It's Pokemon. They're going to milk the DLC itself separately to begin with. It makes perfect sense to not wait.

Want: Abstain. I don't honestly care that much as I have yet to play the games. I'm lazy when it comes to playing new games, so.

Noms: Brian(Quest 64) x 5

Prediction for Level 5 rep: 23%. I don't know enough about their franchises to really say, but I can't really discount it either cause of that. It's like a lot of franchises I don't know, always have a fair chance unless they're literally non-game characters(and those may have potential cameos in the right circumstance).

 

[toonito]

Gen 8 Pokemon rep

Chance: 50%
ARMS getting a character after already having an AT and Spirits boost the chances of it happening. It's pretty straightforward Yes or No.

Want: 25%
I'm not all that sold on Gen 8 this time around, the Gen 8 character I want most is Bea who can fight other characters and use different Pokemon as her specials. She would stand out from PT as she does most of the fighting unlike PT.

Prediction: Level 5 rep 15%

Noms:
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x1
Fulgore x1
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x1
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x1
Rival Pokémon Trainer x1

 

[PeridotGX]

Dottler

Chance - 1%. Lots of optimists (or is it pessimists?) out here. I can't see us getting a SWSH Pokemon for much the same reason I don't expect a Resident Evil or Ring Fit rep. If Galar was to get a Pokemon, we wouldn't have gotten that spirit event. Yes, I know there's more to Gen 8 than the 7 Pokemon we got spirits for, but the intention was there. If we're to get a Pokemon, I genuinely think a PMD rep is more likely.

Want - 45%. It's a shame, because a number of Gen 8 Pokemon would be really cool. The only reason this number isn't higher is because the coolest ones are the ones that absolutely wouldn't get picked. Sakurai would probably go for one of the starters, not something purely moveset based like Grimmsnarl, Mr. Rime, or Stonjourner.

Noms - PMD Rep x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain since I've already given my full opinion on this in the Sirfetch'd and Falinks ratings. We're not likely getting a Gen 8 rep due to the recent spirit event, and unless they surprise us with a starter, it'd probably be a rep from the DLC.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Level 5 rep - 13.57%

 

[amageish]

Pokemon Gen 8 Rep.

Chance: 35%. Man, people are, uh, really split on this one.

I don't think the spirit event matters here. Yes, they could have held on to them for the character, but also it's Pokemon. You can very easily fill a DLC spirit board with characters not featured in that event without any problems or feeling like you're reaching the bottom of the barrel. Yes, it'd be giving the series special treatment and you can label it as "unfair," but also it's the biggest IP in Smash Brothers. If something's going to double-up, then it would be a series of this caliber.

Otherwise, it's easy to make a stage that would be unique, it has a lot of good music options, and there are a craptonne of character concepts (as you can tell by the fact that we are constantly rating Pokemon). It has everything you need for a pass and it'd be representing one of the best-selling Switch games which has upcoming DLC content (which, as of right now, makes it one of like eight first-party franchises that we can say has confirmed upcoming Switch content). I could see it happening, but there is still competition. If the pass is first-party-heavy, then I'd feel more confidant about this...

Want: 15%. There are plenty of Pokemon that would make me happy, but this gets a low score as I'm pessimistic about it being one of those Pokemon that gets in. Someone quirky would be fun.

Noms - DoA Kasumi x5

Prediction: 30%. I'm unsure how this will go, honestly. I'm excited though!

 

[BowserKing]

Pokémon Sword/Shield Rep

Chance: 25%. It depends on what Pokémon will be chosen. Most likely case scenario, it would be a Starter or Toxtricity, given their popularity and most of them being starters. While there was an event, that event only featured 7 of the many Pokémon introduced, so don't count them out just yet. Competition is still there, but they are amount the most likely Nintendo characters in the Second Fighter's Pass.

Want: 90%. As a fan of Pokémon Shield, there are a lot of opportunities to choose from, and while my most wanted Pokémon rep did not emerge from this generation (However, Lugia is returning as DLC in Sword/Shield), there are tons of Generation 8 Pokémon to choose from. Amoung my picks are Cinderace, Boltound, Corviknight, Hattena, Falinks, Galarian Ziggazoon Line, Cramorant, Toxtricity and my personal fav, Frosmoth. They have tons of moveset potential and overall, are great choices.

Prediction: Level 5 Rep (5%)

Noms: 2 for Rival Pokémon trainer and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

 

[Ninjaed]

Gen 8 Pokémon

Chance: 90%
Let's face it, we're almost bound to get one now. Nintendo gave us Byleth and probably wants to sweep that whole dexit business under the rug. What better way to make people forget about that controversy than by letting people actually enjoy one of the newest Pokémon in one of the most beloved Nintendo game series? And well, doesn't hurt that Pokémon is their biggest franchise either. Few are complaining about it being over represented, unlike Fire Emblem. But if they didn't care enough with FE to give us a new rep, they'll do it with Pokémon too. Yeah there was a spirits event, but that was at around the same time FP2 was announced, meaning the new Pokémon rep could've been already picked so they'd know who not to include in the spirits event. Not to mention there are tons of pokémon to fill the new board that would come with a DLC pack.

Want: 0%
We've enough Pokémon, and those that I would indeed want are not from Gen 8. I'd rather have more Pokéballs or more Pokémon as stage hazards, not as fighters.

Predictions: Level-5 rep - 11%

Nominations: Concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 97%
It's one of the biggest media franchises ever. The timing of its release is ideal. Pokemon is one of the franchises that has a transparent relationship with Smash so I see this happening more easily than other franchises. I would be shocked if Nintendo chose to not capitalize on an opportunity to market their latest Pokemon entry that's also getting a DLC expansion.
Want: 0%
They were fun games but I stopped playing at Gen 5. Fairy type's pre-reveal and the leaks and speculation leading up to it's official reveal was fun, but I never bothered playing whatever the 3DS one was. Sun & Moon or X & Y. The Gen 8 choices are inoffensive at best, I wouldn't pay much attention to them.

Nomination: No Third-parties in this pass x5

 

[Deleted member]

Y'all wanna eat some Dex-Mex food?

Chance: 30%

You know, regardless of that tourney and spirit event happening prior to the release of SwSh, I can still see a Gen 8 rep being possible. We don't know jack **** about what happens behind the scenes, but I could definitely see TPC or Nintendo wanting Sakurai to create those events to hype up SwSh rather than Sakurai doing them because Nintendo didn't ask for a Gen 8 Pokemon or negotiations falling through. That said, I don't really have an idea as to who it'd be aside from 1 of the fully evolved starters or a new Pokemon from 1 of the DLC expansions. A Gen 8 rep is possible, but I got nothing as to who it might be.

Want: 25%

Despite none of the franchises I'm fully interested in getting spirit events, I'm slightly on the idea of the "spirits added post game = no fighter from that franchise" precedent being shattered more than most other precedents people want broken, but I also don't really care about Gen 8 since most of that gen doesn't really have Pokemon I'm so fond of. Maybe aside from Dracovish cause of how silly it would be, there really isn't a Gen 8 Pokemon I'd particularly want to see in Smash. I would probably be interested in the trainers like Bea or Nessa by themselves, but that's not happening at all since Pokemon content in Smash will always be just Pokemon with Pokemon Trainer being the only human exception. Overall, I can live without a Gen 8 rep in Vol 2.
----------------
Predictions:
Level-5 Rep - 25%
----------------
Noms:
Lu Bu x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. We've done quite a few pokemon recently, don't really feel like doing another today.

Noms Baldi x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance 40 - There's a chance I think. Feels like I said everything there is to say already but might as well blitz through them. Yes, there were Pokemon DLC spirits. No, it doesn't deconfirm them because there were only like 4 of them and there's like 8 trillion pokemon they could add in as spirit board material. Yes, it does hurt their chances. Yes, there is DLC coming and that's why I think it could happen. No, it won't be Urshifu because of it. I think that covers all of it.

Want 60 - Sure why not. I'd rather get another pokemon than a lot of the unfun characters I've seen pitched/wanted for no reason other than series reps, which is one of the worst arguments as to why someone should get in. Unless we're talking about Xenoblade, which should have more than one. Not going to it anymore than that but as long as we get a fun Pokemon that's what matters.

Predictions
Level 5 - **** if I know. 21% seems fair.

Noms
The Stretchers x5

 

[Plank08]

0% Chance 0% Want
We got Post-Game spirits, that alone seals the deal that they aren’t getting any other content, and I don’t know why they would even need a SwSh rep, the game sells like hotcakes anyway.
The idea of us getting another Pokémon just bothers me, so no, I don’t want it either.
5x Sackboy

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) pre-Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x125
Junko & Monokuma x110
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x110
Guardian (Destiny) x105
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x95
Meowth x90
Brian (Quest 64) x90
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x90
Papyrus x90

100 - 51

Ahri (League of Legends) x85
Gordon Freeman x85
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x80
Proto Man x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x70
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x70
Frank West x65
[Rerate] Steve x60
Dr. Eggman x56
Terra Branford x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x37
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x35
Louie x35
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25

Under 25

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x23
Concept: Returning stages x21
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x20
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x20
Zelda (BotW sequel) x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Stage: Bowser's Castle x18
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Fulgore x15
Red (Angry Birds) x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
The Stretchers x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
[Rerate] Nightmare x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Baldi sneaks past Guardian and ties with Junko & Monokuma for second place. Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise and Papyrus get into the top seven, tying with Meowth and Brian for sixth place.

Terra Branford casts over 50 noms.

Today's sole newcomer is a rerate of Nightmare, with 5 noms.

the spirit event was to promote the game on its release, a character in the second wave wouldn't be able to promote the game so close to its release window.

Didn't matter for Byleth now, did it?

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chances: 50%. I'd have believed the Spirit Event actually meant something if it included every single plausible newcomer, but it doesn't. It in fact shows there's tons of unique and notable possibilities. In addition to that, there's a new DLC story coming out that has unused Pokemon. Even if we don't get a new Pokemon, the chances of another Spirit Event are about 99% as is, since it's an all new part of the game not even slightly noted in Smash yet. And it's Pokemon. To comment on the "they would've waited", no they wouldn't. The whole point of it was to advertise Pokemon Sword/Shield as the base game. DLC was not going to come out for a significantly longer time, so it couldn't be advertised. They are not going to wait that long just because. These are two different parts of the game being represented. Base Game and DLC. The logical thing to do is give love to the base, and then do a Spirit Event or Character with a Spirit Board to represent Sword/Shield DLC, which is a game expansion, later. It's Pokemon. They're going to milk the DLC itself separately to begin with. It makes perfect sense to not wait.

Want: Abstain. I don't honestly care that much as I have yet to play the games. I'm lazy when it comes to playing new games, so.

Noms: Brian(Quest 64) x 5

Prediction for Level 5 rep: 23%. I don't know enough about their franchises to really say, but I can't really discount it either cause of that. It's like a lot of franchises I don't know, always have a fair chance unless they're literally non-game characters(and those may have potential cameos in the right circumstance).

Name one time another game's DLC mattered for Smash. Hell, name one time Smash has even considered a game's DLC as a separate entity.

if i may nominate a generic goron and a generic zora

Are those two separate character concepts? If so, you'll have to tell me how many nominations you want to give to each.

 

[NintenRob]

Didn't matter for Byleth now, did it?

Byleths release would have been a lot closer to Three Houses releases.

If we get a new Pokemon, it could potentially be up to two years after the initial games release.

Or Spirit events were planned far enough in advance that it was actually decided before Fighter pass 2 was decided.

Or maybe it does deconfirm

Or maybe Nintendo doesn't care.


I dunno, I just don't think it's clear cut here, especially with Pokemon.

 

[Ninjaed]

I don't think they need to promote Pokémon tbh. It sells like hotcakes on brand alone. But it'd make them good money since pretty much everyone would buy the new pokémon fighter.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Name one time another game's DLC mattered for Smash. Hell, name one time Smash has even considered a game's DLC as a separate entity.

It's really hard to explain it, as I don't believe for one second we aren't getting another spirit event. I believe the Expansion Pass is a massively important thing for Nintendo. They're pushing it pretty hard as is when they can.

The Expansion Pass takes the role of Updated Re-Release first and foremost. It's just doing it in a less cheeky way instead. In addition, no game in Smash already represented has had an Expansion Pass where they could logically get that kind of DLC. The first chance was Spirit Events. There's been no time to even do that idea till Pokemon. The rest are way harder, as Trophies take a lot of extra modeling and time to make. So giving those as DLC to promote expansion passes in general takes a lot, as they would need to do that extremely often during 4 as is. They never did anything like that then. That's the first sign they want to advertise very important stuff. Second, this is already important for Nintendo and Pokemon too. For the former, this is a product they want to sell hard. They won't miss the chance to easily advertise it with spirits(and maybe a character). For the latter, the Pass is a milestone in Pokemon history. This is the first time they forewent the updated re-releases and added the story onto the new game. That's a huge deal, and something worth celebrating too with spirits. They want people to acknowledge how big this is. Cause let's be real, the first Spirit Event only is notable for the base game. The new story is completely unrepresented and worth going for.

Lastly, they did actually do the same thing with base Ultimate. They had content from basic Sun/Moon, but Incineroar specifically was chosen based upon Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon. In other words, updated re-releases, or their equivalents, are also important.

That said, I'm not really able to explain it any better, so if you don't like my answers, fair enough. But I won't be able to reply any further.

 

[Jomosensual]

Byleths release would have been a lot closer to Three Houses releases.

If we get a new Pokemon, it could potentially be up to two years after the initial games release.

Or Spirit events were planned far enough in advance that it was actually decided before Fighter pass 2 was decided.

Or maybe it does deconfirm

Or maybe Nintendo doesn't care.


I dunno, I just don't think it's clear cut here, especially with Pokemon.

Yeah im not sure why we have people acting like it's such a cut and dry case. Talked about this a lot already so i don't feel like it again but there's obvious differences between pokemon and like, Astral Chain or Trials of Mana here. Nobody is saying spirit events don't hurt but its not dumb to say there's probably some nuance we need to have when looking at these cases.

 

[Sari]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 5%
With ARMS getting a character years after its release, I don't think this is as impossible as it once was. The spirit event that was as recent as November is what makes me think will prevent this from happening though.

Want: 0.1%
I really don't care about Pokemon anymore and to be perfectly blunt I am so sick of all of these Gen 8 ratings we've been doing recently. Literally the only reason this isn't a 0% is because I'd be ok with Cinderace making it in.

Level-5 rep chance prediction: 18.56%

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel x5)

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've given up trying to predict Pokemon in Smash. I will say, though, there have been numerous times in the past where Pokemon has been the exception to certain "rules".

Nominations: Brian (Quest 64) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Introducing the wild area stage, with low-poly tree, pop-up and instant changing weather conditions for the true Sword/Shield experience
Chance: 0.5%
I'm in that camp of that Spirit event deconfirming this concept. The lineup was decided last fall. The Spirit event happened around that time. Why would they have bothered with that if a Gen 8 fighter was on the horizon anyway? The fact that they didn't do one for Three Houses should've been a blatant giveaway. I don't see Sword/Shield breaking the norm. Don't tell me those Spirits were just for promoting sake and that a fighter would still happen later down the line. If there's one franchise that doesn't need promoting it's Pokemon, it sells better than Smash Bros itself, and the events for Astral Chain and Ring Fit also missed their releases by several months yet they were fine with that apparently, you can't convince me those games wouldn't need those promotions more. Thinking about it, Spirit events don't really seem like a good promotional tool for major release anyway.

Since I guess I'm just tackeling arguments here now. The Spirit event deconfirms all Galar Pokemon, not just the indivudual ones who they decided to make Spirits out of. Yes, Sword and Shield gave us alot of new Pokemon but they obviously couldn't make Spirits out of all of them. We only get a handful of new ones per event. I don't care if you don't consider mons like Zacian or Corviknight "viable" choices and insist Toxtricity, Urshifu and Falinks still stand a chance. I don't think Nintendo and Sakurai are purposely leaving out the bipedal mons just to make them a potential fighter later on.

They also wouldn't do this to "Sweep dexit under the rug" (there are way more negatives than that btw) That whole ordeal didn't make a dent in the sales numbers. Those people turned out to just be the vocal minority. I'd actually be pretty concerned if Nintendo would have that reasoning behind adding a Sword/Shield rep. They'd not only be really out of touch if they'd think that would be an apology instead of adding more fuel to the fire, it would also possibly show they'd try to hush any criticism of their precious Sword/Shield.

The one scenario I can see a Gen 8 rep happening anyway is in case the lineup really was only fully decided after the Spirit event and that fighter was the last one added but personally I'd imagine TPC would jump onboard pretty early the second they learned FP2 was happening.

There are probably others but idk. All of these arguments in favor of Gen 8 just sound like "Pokemon is happening because it's Pokemon and you can do nothing about it" and that's putting a series on a pedestal as if it's immune to deconfirmations, which no concept is.

Want: 0%
You can probably tell by tone and my previous ratings of Gen 8 mon but a Sword/Shield mon is about my least wanted character at the moment, for first-parties atleast. I skipped out on Sword/Shield because the game just doesn't look worthy of my time and money. A fighter from that would make me groan hard, because there'd be no passion behind the inclusion. They wouldn't get on the roster by building up relevance and fan support or having legacy but because TPC just has made dough from the endless money making machine that is Pokemon, a franchise that no longer has to try, making them the safest choice possible. A gen 8 mon would be the literal definition of a shill pick and just feel so predictable and soulless compared to all the dozens of other characters competing for the final five spots.

Also, I'd legit be mad at Sword/Shield breaking the norm of Spirit events deconfirming instead of games that legit deserve it like Resident Evil or Astral Chain.

I've made my point now and I really hope this the last time we're rating anything from Galar.

Level 5 rep: 16.54%
Furret x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Not Unova
Chance: 0%; The spirit event does it, but also Nintendo would've seen the reaction to Incin. They would've seen that we're tired of shill pokemon, especially since FP2 was decided around E3 2019. I just don't see them including a Gen 8 mon.
Want: 0.1% Gen 8 is the worst Pokemon generation. I really don't want it represented in Smash when we could get Chandelure or Grovyle as a new pokemon. Or hell, any gen 3 or gen 5 rep would be preferable. The only reason this isn't a complete zero is because I love Sirfetch'd. That's it.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[Simnm]

Sword and shield rep
Chance:25%
I think a sword and shield rep has a high chance of already being deconfirmed by a spirit spirit that took place back in november 2019.nintendo might still pull a byleth on us and add a rep anyways but i dont think that has a relatively high chance of happening.
Want:45%
There are some pokemon in gen 8 that would be interesting fighters.though i want other characters more.

Steve[rerate]×5

Level 5 rep:15%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 0.01%

Why on earth is it that Ring Fit, Resident Evil, and Astral Chain pretty much are condemned to impossibility by 99% of the fanbase after the DLC spirit event, but Pokemon gets a special exception? If they wanted to put one in, they wouldn't have made the spirit event so late in the first place.

Want: 0%

Possibly one of my least wanted in terms of DLC. The idea of getting an 11th Pokemon (after getting 4 combined Pokemon newcomers and returning veterans in Ultimate alone), before so many other characters, both from series that are already in the game and from series that aren't, would piss me off to say the least. Not to mention Generation 8 itself is plagued by a sea of controversy unprecedented from any previous Pokemon generation (And I personally care about it far less than most of the previous gens). No thank you, Pokemon always gets a shill pick every game, they can more than wait for the next Smash. Incineroar already got to cut the line in front of 20 other more requested characters for the base game just because it was a Pokemon, we don't need the spoiled brat franchise to get another candy when there are so many other starving 1st Party series (and some 3rd Parties) that could use another character far more.

Noms: Terra Branford x5