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So, if they wanted to promote Pokémon with a fighter, but the fighter would come two years down the line, why even go that route? If the Gen 8 rep is coming December 2021, what was even the point of having it? If the Pokemon is so far down the line that they decided they needed another, more timely method of promotion, I think they'd have either set the fighter earlier or foregone it altogether. This isn't having their cake and eating it too, this is them eating their cake and then regurgitating it.
I don't think there's any evidence pointing to Spirits being developed so far in advance. They're an incredibly simple affair and they have their own special team.
I rule out characters because I'm consistent. I wish characters like Officer Howard and Ring Fit Adventurer were still in play because I love their games and think they'd be great additions. But they're down for the count, I acknowledge that and I understand the reasons why. If those same reasons apply to a character I don't necessarily want, I'm not going to be a hypocrite about it.
Chance: 27%
. . .There really isn't many arguments or points that can be made that haven't already been made the last couple of times we rated a particular Pokémon from Generation 8. We had a spirit event when FETH didn't get one, but on the other hand, Pokémon is such a big series when it comes to Smash that Sakurai outright confirmed that there's always a spot reserved for a new Pokémon on the base roster. I don't think that the spirit event really holds a potential character back all that much, but it's nonetheless something that definitely should be kept in mind.
Want: 30%
My opinions on Sword and Shield haven't really changed since the last time we discussed a Pokémon from Sword and Shield. Lackluster games that got me feeling "meh" at best, and a decent line-up of Pokémon, none of which I really want in Smash that much. What's also not helping is that our most recent Pokémon addition, Incineroar, has not gone over that well with me.
And can we please stop rating - or rather, nominating - Gen 8 Pokémon for a while? Like others have already said, we rated a lot of those recently, and there's only so many times I can repeat these arguments without them getting downright annoying to say.
Predicting a Level 5 rep to get. . . uh, 23.94%.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
This was sooner than I expected. I thought it wouldn't be until tomorrow, but hey, frequent updates are updates. And then it took me days to post this. So long that an entire day happened.
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%), Deep Red is Pipe Dream (2%), and anything below that is Black tier, Hopeless. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.
(Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
(KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
(Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 54.25% Chance
Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
2B: 35.41% Chance
Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep: 29.00% Chance
Remember what I said last time about Bill Rizer and Contra rep? Same deal but with Euden, as literally no other candidate was brought up during that day.
Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
Concept: New Zelda character: 26.20% Chance
Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series (not counting ARMS, as it's gonna get one soon)
Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted
Midna: 4.33% Chance
Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
Gex: 3.91% Chance
Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
Thrall: 3.07% Chance
Sirfetch'd: 2.99% Chance
Crypto: 2.67% Chance
Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 1.66% Chance - 34.17% Want
Hornet: 1.45% Chance
Segata Sanshiro: 1.30% Chance - Only character rated to not technically come from a video game
The Blob: 1.14% Chance
Falinks: 1.00% Chance - Least likely first/second party
Gnar: 0.89% Chance
Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 0.58% Chance - Least likely Japanese character, least likely character from a repped series
Bubsy: 0.21% Chance - Least likely character
Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (50+%), Denim? I dunno what this color is, but it represents the new Well-Liked tier (40+%), (Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 86.50% Want - Most wanted Fighter concept
(Nintendo, The Legend of Zelda) Concept: New Zelda character: 80.41% Want - Most wanted set of characters from Japan/first party/repped series
(Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted individual character, most wanted third party, most wanted western character
Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep: 44.36% Want
Segata Sanshiro: 43.27% Want
Gex: 42.50% Want
Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
Sirfetch'd: 40.64% Want
Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 34.17% Want
The Blob: 28.88% Want
Falinks: 28.44% Want
Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
Cinderace: 27.71% Want
Crypto: 27.63% Want
Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
Inteleon: 27.00% Want
Thrall: 26.50% Want
Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
Tracer: 22.73% Want
Melmetal: 21.10% Want
Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
Urshifu: 16.46% Want
Gnar: 12.67% Want
Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 12.19% Want
Bubsy: 8.79% Want - Least wanted character
Chance is the only factor in determining ranking, but in the event of a chance tie I'll use want as the tiebreaker.
Min-Min: 54.16% Chance, 73.26% Want
Spring Man: 49.76% Chance, 62.54% Want
Ribbon Girl: 43.91% Chance, 57.15% Want
Ninjara: 30.33% Chance, 53.68% Want
Mechanica: 7.43% Chance, 39.71% Want
Master Mummy: 4.10% Chance, 31.88% Want
The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe reps, and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.
ARMS Takeaways: Welcome to frontrunner tier, Min-Min. Welcome to the No Hopers bin, Mechanica and Master Mummy. Nothing unusual happened here.
Non-ARMS Takeaways: Dragalia Lost day happened.
---
For Fire Emblem, Zelda and Smash Bros., June 2019 was a miracle. For Pokémon, it was the disaster to end all disasters.
Chance: 0% for the base game, but I legitimately believe that a representative from Pokémon's DLC (meaning Urshifu or Calyrex) is inevitable, 99%. Pokémon's the biggest media franchise of all time, it and Fire Emblem constantly get special treatment, and overall Nintendo would have to be extremely stupid to not try to get in a Pokémon, especially one from the (sadly) biggest release of 2019. This is a case where "it's never happened before!" is gonna get shattered again, and as usual it'll be what nobody's asking for. But I agree that the Spirit Event means we're not getting the starters, Toxtricity or whatever the base game Pokémon of the week is, at least, since they added pretty much every notable Pokémon from the base game there (or at least a rep from their line). There's not only plenty more Spirits to use, but there's gonna be more candidates for stuff.
Want: A genuinely non-Arle related 0%! I want a Pokémon to get in from fan demand, or a Pokémon with history or that represents a new type. All of them have something new to add to Smash. While I'm defeated and will accept the promotional pick is probably gonna happen, if we could get somebody like Sceptile, that would make me SO much more receptive to Pokémon reps in Smash, because Sceptile legitimately earned a spot in Smash and wasn't handed one from birth like Greninja or Incineroar (and one of them coincidentally ended up being popular. The other, well Sakurai can have what he wants too). Heracross could represent itself, bug types in general, and even reference the Beetle ability from Kirby all at once. Haxorus would just be so cool, and the more dragons the merrier, but it also kinda sorta represents Pokémon Champions as the ace of the BW2 champion. And this is just the three generations without unique reps, if we look at Pokémon's history it has way more, way cooler candidates than the ones we're likely to get, looking at main series alone. People have been also asking for Grovyle to double up on Hoenn AND Mystery Dungeon. Overall there are Pokémon that fans have been asking for for ages.
A Galarian Pokémon might be able to do some of them too, maybe even better, but it would be a massive waste of potential as regardless of if we'll get more Nintendo reps after the ARMS rep (and unless it's Max Brass/Dr. Coyle, we probably are), we're definitely not getting more than one Pokémon. And for Pokémon, it's the principle of the thing, where even if the condition is technically met it's still not that great. If I end up eating my words, it'll be delicious word eating. Cinderace, I would take another Fire Emblem character over. Everybody else, I don't care about nearly that bad, but I would not be pleased with a Pokémon for marketing's sake, but rather a Pokémon that's for the fans (and, hey, it's still a Pokémon so it's still marketable, right?)
(I also doubt the development history of Generation 8 was anything better than absolutely shoddy, but that's more on Nintendo & the rest of TPC and technically has nothing to do with the Pokémon that are in it, so... can't exactly fault them for being in a game I think isn't worth $60. Besides, if it was a gift I wouldn't reject it.)
Red x 5. Level 5 is a global rep with actual determination on who will get in instead of being a glorified Bill Rizer/Euden day. But in general, 37.75%.
General Comment: I feel like people are a bit too focused on the "promotional" aspect of a Pokemon rep...
If Smash Brothers is a "celebration of gaming," then maybe the biggest media franchise of all-time getting its first mainline title on a home console that has record-breaking sales is... worth celebrating? Currently it's been celebrated via a collection of spirits. Maybe it'll be celebrated by a character later, maybe not. Idk. I think it's possible, but not inevitable.
If Nintendo was truly exclusively concerned with promotion, then, yeah, they definitely wouldn't need to promote Pokemon that much. It'll sell itself. However, then they would also logically want to promote the games that, you know, actually need promotion to sell well? I don't think people would rate a Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Encore rep very highly, in spite of that being an underperforming Nintendo title with no spirit event (and only one base-game spirit). I would expect character from titles like those if Smash was truly just a vehicle to advertise other games.
Now, obviously Smash Bros is to some extent advertising and it'd be ridiculous to say it isn't a factor. I just find it weird that people are so willing to divide characters into 100% "shill pick" versus 100% "fan-demanded" characters - and the latter ones are the only ones who earned their spot. I don't think anyone would say that Banjo was a shill pick, even though he was one of the only characters who had a specific call-to-action for buying his title in his reveal ("give the game a try on Xbox!"). Advertising potential and fan demand are both factors that go into deciding a Smash character. A Pokemon wouldn't be as-discussed as it is in this thread if it wasn't for people who want one. Smash Bros has a large fanbase to the point where, like, almost every character has some amount of fan demand.
I rule out characters because I'm consistent. I wish characters like Officer Howard and Ring Fit Adventurer were still in play because I love their games and think they'd be great additions. But they're down for the count, I acknowledge that and I understand the reasons why. If those same reasons apply to a character I don't necessarily want, I'm not going to be a hypocrite about it.
well i wasnt meaning anyone is particular, spirit events are a good reason. i dunno maybe its me but there does feel like a fair amount og anti gen 8 sentiment
General Comment: I feel like people are a bit too focused on the "promotional" aspect of a Pokemon rep...
If Smash Brothers is a "celebration of gaming," then maybe the biggest media franchise of all-time getting its first mainline title on a home console that has record-breaking sales is... worth celebrating? Currently it's been celebrated via a collection of spirits. Maybe it'll be celebrated by a character later, maybe not. Idk. I think it's possible, but not inevitable.
If Nintendo was truly exclusively concerned with promotion, then, yeah, they definitely wouldn't need to promote Pokemon that much. It'll sell itself. However, then they would also logically want to promote the games that, you know, actually need promotion to sell well? I don't think people would rate a Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Encore rep very highly, in spite of that being an underperforming Nintendo title with no spirit event (and only one base-game spirit). I would expect character from titles like those if Smash was truly just a vehicle to advertise other games.
Now, obviously Smash Bros is to some extent advertising and it'd be ridiculous to say it isn't a factor. I just find it weird that people are so willing to divide characters into 100% "shill pick" versus 100% "fan-demanded" characters - and the latter ones are the only ones who earned their spot. I don't think anyone would say that Banjo was a shill pick, even though he was one of the only characters who had a specific call-to-action for buying his title in his reveal ("give the game a try on Xbox!"). Advertising potential and fan demand are both factors that go into deciding a Smash character. A Pokemon wouldn't be as-discussed as it is in this thread if it wasn't for people who want one. Smash Bros has a large fanbase to the point where, like, almost every character has some amount of fan demand.
I think the key here is that celebrating gaming history doesn't mean celebrating sales and corporate interests. It means celebrating the unique and the acclaimed and the beloved and the revolutionary parts of the industry's development and growth as an artistic medium. Sometimes history means framing and contextualizing the greats everyone knows, sometimes it means shining a light on those greats that people might not know about - but it always means making choices that will hold up with age.
Personally I think the best way to know if a choice will stand the test of time is to just give it ****ing time. Instead of shoving a character, any character into the game straight out of the oven, just waiting a while and seeing how things turn out helps with perspective.
well i wasnt meaning anyone is particular, spirit events are a good reason. i dunno maybe its me but there does feel like a fair amount og anti gen 8 sentiment
I think that's to be expected. Pokemon is the series with most characters in Smash, we know they save spots for them when they don't for any other series, and the last newcomer was very poorly received. So Pokemon's already at a disadvantage with Smash fans.
Add to that a very controversial entry that many people problems with - for varied reasons - and you have many people with many different reasons not to want a character from Gen 8.
Personally I think the best way to know if a choice will stand the test of time is to just give it ****ing time. Instead of shoving a character, any character into the game straight out of the oven, just waiting a while and seeing how things turn out helps with perspective.
This. I kow it's off-topic so I won't press it any further, but this is precisely what bugs me about Pokémon getting an obligatory rep every game and FE getting characters before their respective games are even out. If this is a celebration of gaming history, pushing for something that has barely had time to cement itself in that history kinda goes against that goal.
I mean, we've had a lot of good games in the past two decades alone that warrant being celebrated in this so-called "museum". So these things kinda... irk me a bit - no matter how much the cynical part of me goes like "that's just how corporations work".
For my scores:
Gen 8 rep Chance: 1%
I don't think I can say anything that has already been said on the matter - if Nintendo and GF had really wanted a Galar Pokémon in, they would have held back the Spirit event like they did with Three Houses. I'm giving the 1% as a one-off chance should the planets align, but I don't think it's happening.
Want: 0%
Take what I said in my response to GoodGrief and add to it that my two favorite Gens were skipped and that I'm kinda tired of the new Pokémon reps being just the "flavor of the week" meant to promote the latest gen available... and that's a no from me. It's a shame, because I still consider myself a big Pokémon fan, but the treatment the franchise has received post-Brawl just made me apathetic to Pokémon in Smash.
I think the key here is that celebrating gaming history doesn't mean celebrating sales and corporate interests. It means celebrating the unique and the acclaimed and the beloved and the revolutionary parts of the industry's development and growth as an artistic medium. Sometimes history means framing and contextualizing the greats everyone knows, sometimes it means shining a light on those greats that people might not know about - but it always means making choices that will hold up with age.
Personally I think the best way to know if a choice will stand the test of time is to just give it ****ing time. Instead of shoving a character, any character into the game straight out of the oven, just waiting a while and seeing how things turn out helps with perspective.
I don't disagree with that for the most part, but I don't see how sales aren't, like, reflective of industry trends? Things that sell well tend to be games people, you know, like and want to play. I'm all for niche representation and don't think sales should be the be-all and end-all - or else the DLC would probably contain a lot of sports games - but obviously they're important in their own way. Pokemon Sword/Shield are important games for the history of Pokemon simply by being the beginning of Game Freak Pokemon's transfer to console RPGs. This isn't exactly something that can be taken away from the games in retrospect, even if they are followed by the "BotW of Pokemon" that blows everyone's mind and makes them look even worse in comparison. This wouldn't be shoving "any character into the game," it would adding a character from a known success that represents a milestone for one of the biggest pop culture franchises ever. If they added one of the characters from Good Job!, then I may have second questions about their marketing intentions haha.
To be clear: If we get a Pokemon, I'll likely feel pretty . Most commonly-suggested Pokemon aren't super exciting to me. I just don't agree with the notion they'd be "jumping in line" or anything. It'd be a popular franchise getting a spot - one that clearly does have fan demand, even if I'm not part of said demand.
I kind of agree it's celebrating gaming history, but it's more of a "bonus", something Sakurai didn't see coming at first. Which obviously means at heart, it's something different - a crossover between the different Nintendo franchises. Though they gave us fans content to sink our teeth into (can't imagine how overjoyed Japan was at DQ's inclusion), they stayed true to this concept with ARMS being the next logical inclusion.
I wanted to write more but I can't organise my thoughts well enough for now so this'll have to do.
Chance - 5% - I can see a low chance of this happening, just because Pokemon's Pokemon. I have no idea if the spirits are enough of a disconfirmation; there are still several other Pokemon that can potentially fill in that role, including the starters (remember, the stage ones were the ones as spirits, not the final forms). There's also the question of the new DLC Pokemon that are forthcoming. Still, it's hard to say how much the direction of the new series will go, and Pokemon just got a new character in the base game. I'm not certain how much that all adds up to, but it's enough for me to not completely rule it out.
Want - 35% - I'd be more enthusiastic if it was a Pokemon from an older generation. I've had my fill of Pokemon for this game anyway.
Level 5 Start!
Chance: 50%
Level-5 still has some IPs they can muster the energy to use. They might not be in the best spot financially, but with a spot in Smash, I’m sure they’ll get enough recognition for a good amount of DLC money to go to them (if not better sales for their games).
Want: 70%
I’m no big fan of them, but sure, why not? If we got Professor Layton, he could be the first puzzle rep in Smash for a unique kind of playstyle.
Earthworm Jim: 50%
Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5
Level-5 is better known for the Professor Layton series, as well as Inazuma Eleven and Yokai Watch. Ni no Kuni was well-received as well, broadening their audience further. The studio has its own distinctive, signature art style.
That said, there are too many variables for this broad a concept for me to give a proper score. For example, Layton competes with Phoenix Wright (though Layton is more about puzzles really) who is more famous and iconic. Yokai Watch directly challenges Pokémon, and Ni no Kuni faces so many other better known RPGs - we've already had Persona, Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest previous pack, and now Xenoblade Chronicles 2 might be back in the running too. So yeah, too tough for me to give a score that encompasses all that, I'd rather abstain than give a score devoid of meaning.
Predictions: Earthworm Jim - 9%
Nominations: Concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise x5
Chance: 40%. Level-5's complete absence in Smash is something that really confuses me. Their relationship with Nintendo is seriously longstanding - to the point where both the Layton series and Inazuma Eleven are on Nintendo UK's "Nintendo Character" hub (alongside Nintendo's giants and also Phoenix Wright). Nintendo basically guided them away from Sony, helping out with international releases of almost all of their games after they started self-publishing - Nintendo published both Layton trilogies, the three main Yokai Watch games, Fantasy Life, and most Inazuma Eleven titles outside of Japan. These games were Nintendo exclusive at launch and most of them have retained exclusivity since... Some of these franchises are also very successful, with Layton/Inazuma doing especially fantastic in Europe and Yokai Watch being especially inescapable in Japan. It's genuinely odd to me that Level-5 still has nothing in Smash - not even a spirit event.
That said, they have had less of a partnership with Nintendo more recently. Layton's Mystery Dungeon was published by Level-5 themselves and launched on smart devices alongside the 3DS before getting its definitive Switch port. Yokai Watch 4, meanwhile, is getting a definitive edition on PS4 in Japan (though I believe the enhancements are DLC for the Switch version). Ni no Kuni moved to PlayStation as well until the Switch port. They also, uh, are very very very very very slow with localizations lately. Like, holy moly... They clearly still are on good terms with Nintendo, but their relationship has been better...
As for what character this would be, idk. During the Brawl era, it would have been Layton for sure. Sm4sh came out when Yokai Watch was on top. Nowadays... I don't really know who would be top dog.
Want: 100%. I like most Level-5 games. I don't see a half-probable Smash pick that wouldn't satisfy me.
Chance: 20% - Honestly it's surprising that this hasn't happened yet, and I honestly would've expected it during the Smash 4 days. Layton would've been the frontrunner during the Brawl era (though still low since Third Parties were still a new and rare concept at the time), and during Smash 4 it was the height of the Yokai Watch craze. Nintendo has happily guided Level 5 along and for a long time enjoyed a healthy relationship with them, even helping them reach the point of being able to self publish, with Nintendo publishing for them in the mean time. Their games remained Nintendo exclusive for a long time and Jibanyan along with several Yokai are even featured as "friends" worthy on Nintendo's website, showing that they're in a way honorary Nintendo characters and that the relationship is healthy.
However, in the past few years things aren't looking so hot. Several of their games were brought to Playstation (albeit receiving Switch ports), and a formerly Nintendo exclusive publisher going multiplatform shows that something is going a bit sour. Furthermore, they're having localization problems as amageish mentioned and while the relationship is still GOOD, it certainly is on the decline given current trends. Finally, there's their franchises. The biggest blow is the hard fall of Yokai Watch's popularity in recent years, and while 4 has helped get a little of it back, it isn't the juggernaut that it was during the Smash 4 era.
Nonetheless, Level-5 is definitely a solid choice, though I myself am not banking on it.
Want: Abstain - I have little to no experience with their franchises so I'll have to pass on this one.
I'm just going to rate this as Layton. He's Level-5's mascot, their most famous and popular character and a worldwide icon, plus a pioneer and frontrunner in his genre. Yokai Watch is quickly dying worldwide, to the point where they went multiplat to cover for bad sales.
(Small rant: Yokai Watch being a Nintendo exclusive for most of its run and only going multiplat when it's dying makes no business sense. People on PS4 aren't going to buy the fourth entry of a series when they haven't played the rest, and why did they think competing with Pokemon on their home turf would work out for them in the long run? If they had also been on PS4 from day one, they could have become the Sony Pokemon! Sorry, it just irks me so much, I'm not even a Yokai Watch fan but they had this huge opportunity and completely wasted it)
Anyway, yeah, Yokai Watch isn't a big deal anymore so I don't see Nintendo going for it. You might think the promotional aspect could help, but just after the series went multiplat? I dunno, I think Nintendo won't want to reward that. As for other series, Ni No Kuni still isn't as big as it could be, and yeah that's basically it for big-ish Level-5 series.
So, Layton. I've said several times that I think Layton's a coin toss and I still believe that. If the pass is heading in a more first party direction, then yeah that's not great for him, but for now I won't double down on that possibility; if the Pass is anything like the last, he's got a great shot. Iconic, popular, highly requested (and especially in the ballot days), no content in Smash, brings in a new company with very strong ties with Nintendo, basically a Nintendo mascot, moveset potential galore, great music, amazing and distinct settings for a stage. You gotta envy all this guy has got going for him.
I absolutely adore the Layton games and the Professor himself is one of my most wanted characters for Smash. It would make me so happy to see him puzzling his way about in the battlefield. Ah, dang, now I wanna play some more Layton. Should probably watch the anime, that might scratch the itch.
Noms: uhhh
Earthworm Jim prediction: will a character I nominate get somewhat decent scores? Probably not! 8.79%
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x130
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x115
Junko & Monokuma x110
Guardian (Destiny) x105
Brian (Quest 64) x100
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x96
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x95
100 - 51
Meowth x90
Papyrus x90
Ahri (League of Legends) x90
Gordon Freeman x90
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x90
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x76
Proto Man x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x75
Frank West x70
[Rerate] Steve x65
Terra Branford x65
Dr. Eggman x56
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x42
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x40
Louie x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Giygas x25
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x25
Zelda (BotW sequel) x25
Under 25
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x23
Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x20
Stage: Bowser's Castle x20
Red (Angry Birds) x20
Fulgore x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
The Stretchers x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
[Rerate] Nightmare x5
Furret x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Baldi passes Junko & Monokuma and is now number 2. Brian and Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise triumph over their peers, leaving Meowth and Papyrus in their dust; they also pass Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable, making them 5th and 6th respectively.
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content and Zelda reach 25 noms.
Today's newcomers are Furret, with 5 noms, Concept: Generic Zora, with 3 noms, and Concept: Generic Goron, with 2 noms.
Jesus, every single paragraph has something related to Pokemon in it! What is this, Pokemon day or something?
...Oh yeah
amageish
the conversation's interesting but the day's changed so if you want we can continue the discussion in DMs.
fogbadge
I need you to answer my question about your concepts.
I think that's to be expected. Pokemon is the series with most characters in Smash, we know they save spots for them when they don't for any other series, and the last newcomer was very poorly received. So Pokemon's already at a disadvantage with Smash fans.
Add to that a very controversial entry that many people problems with - for varied reasons - and you have many people with many different reasons not to want a character from Gen 8.
well yeah i can understand not wanting them in smash, we all have characters we dont want in smash (some us already have characters we dont want in) but i feel some people are too quick to rule it out, i mean they already knew about peoples attitude towards FE and that didnt stop byleth
(Small rant: Yokai Watch being a Nintendo exclusive for most of its run and only going multiplat when it's dying makes no business sense. People on PS4 aren't going to buy the fourth entry of a series when they haven't played the rest, and why did they think competing with Pokemon on their home turf would work out for them in the long run? If they had also been on PS4 from day one, they could have become the Sony Pokemon! Sorry, it just irks me so much, I'm not even a Yokai Watch fan but they had this huge opportunity and completely wasted it)
chances: 50% i see it going either way but as we have said many times in the layton support thread it does seem odd that level-5 would be left out all together. i would think that enough their series have done well enough to warrant their inclusion in smash when more niche 3rd party series have got in. i would at the very least we would get a spirit event based on one of their series. layton is loved worldwide and yo-kai watch was a huge hit in japan for a while and it being in decline now shouldnt matter. ni no kuni received critical acclaim i believe so i would hope that level-5 has achieved enough to get a least a cameo
want: 100% well really itd depend who it was, layton and the yo-kai watch gang are among my most wanted 3rd parties, right up there with tails, phoenix wright and sora. i would very much like oliver from ni no kuni though not as much ad the first two. most of their other games im less familiar with so its hard to want them. also id rather izumi eleven wasnt in but thats just cause i think they should keep sports out of gaming
So I thought that Level 5 was still within the top 10 Japanese video game companies but they seem to have lost some ground. But I'm still confident in them getting a rep. Level 5 is one of those unrepresented companies that could very well get a rep, like with SNK in the first pass. Level 5 has a lot of Nintendo history and Nintendo even publishes several of their games internationally. Their biggest rep is Professor Layton who has a ton of Nintendo history, has many successful games, is well-known and requested, and has unique potential for a moveset. They also got Jibanyan and Ni No Kuni but Ni No Kuni isn't as popular (plus competition from RPGs like Tales Of) and apparently Jibanyan has lost popularity in just one year. Man, I remember when so many people were thinking that Jibanyan was a real possibility for the first pass. How quickly times change.
This is more of a side note, but really, instead of talking about the same companies over and over again (Capcom, Bandai Namco, Square Enix, etc.) we should really be considering reps from other companies like Level 5 who has as much of a reason to be included in Smash due to the company's strong ties with Nintendo.
Want: 60%
The only series from Level 5 I care about is Professor Layton. I haven't played much of these games but I would be down for a character like this whose moveset is based around puzzles. Plus I have a friend who really wants Layton. But I would much rather have Phoenix Wright to represent this type of game, though thinking about it are the games similar enough to compete with each other?
Groovy Prediction: Earthworm Jim - 6% (People might slightly overrate him because he is somewhat requested but really I don't see him being likely)
Twice the Price, Half the Content
Chance: 99%
People who think the Spirit event makes this disconfirmed are being way too optimistic. Do you really think Nintendo is gonna let 4 .pngs be all the Gen 8 content in Smash? I can see how Spirit events hurt 3rd parties and new franchises, but Pokémon always finds a way.
Want: 0%
As one the few people who actually DIDN'T buy Gen 8, I definitely don't want this. Aside from the fact that we already have more than enough playable Pokémon, there's also the fact that this game will be known as the one that killed the franchise. Not in terms of sales, that'll never happen, but in terms of actually having good games. Game Freak will continue to put in half the effort and will be rewarded with billions of dollars every time.
And to keep this post on topic, I'll abstain from Level 5.
Jim prediction: 7%
Noms: Gordon Freeman x5
Chance: 15%. There are multiple reps to chose from, but of those, Layton is the most likely Character to be chosen. Of course there still is competition from other companies, but on the other hand, this company is more likely to have a rep then certain others. There is also the chance of a character being a Mii Costume.
Want: 50%. I mainly choose this rating because I don't know who to choose for a level 5 rep. A rep from that company would be fun to play as, and there is some potential of battles, stages, soundtracks and spirits to choose from as well. Overall, a rep from there would do Smash some good, but I can't choose which one.
Chance: 50%
I see this as a coin flip. On the one hand, they clearly have a history with Nintendo, and Professor Layton is a highly requested character, with Jibanyan's popularity not being as dead as people think. On the other hand, the company has apparently hit hard times, if them going multiplatform is any indicator. That could potentially throw a dent somewhere, even if I don't know how exactly.
Want: 70%
Believe it or not, this is mostly because I want Jibanyan in Smash. I adored Yo-kai Watch when I played it, and can't wait for 4 to get localised. Unfortunately, I don't have much of a connection to any of their other franchises.
Sorry for the long hiatus, quarantine and finals had me cooped up. I have graduated now, will be more active in the thread.
Level 5 Rep
20% Chance
There are basically two routes this can go, so I will talk of each real quick.
First is the Layton route. Layton had a decent ballot push. If we were in Sm4sh speculation for DLC, I would look higher on him. But the Layton franchise is not in the same state it was back then. Layton during Sm4sh was this strong franchise on the DS and 3DS, a beacon of quality third party support. He was more of a mid tier third party choice in terms of popularity too, similar to Shantae at the time. Nowadays...well most of what I said is still true, but the timing changes everything. Layton has not done as much in the past few years, we got his daughter's game but from what I heard it undersold. Maybe it will do better now that it got a switch port, but the point more or less stands. The franchise is just harder to sell as a new character as well given that Layton just is not that big of a name. With the ball park open, you have bigger fish to fry than Layton.
Then you get Jibanyan and Yokai Watch. Pokemon clones do exists, and Yokai Watch is probably the biggest in peoples minds, the only other true pokemon clone that comes close is Digimon and thats stretching it. But yokai watch, despite Nintendo's own best efforts, never caught on in the states. While it might be popular in Japan still, it just never has caught on in the states in the same way. I know Nintendo has chosen some Japan centric characters in the past, but I just do not see this as likely. I lowkey think Layton is more likely.
30% Want
I am in favor of Layton getting in, but god I really do not want Jibanyan. Easily one of my least wanted characters period that is feasible. I know he has his fans and Yokai watch does, but I never got into it and would prefer it to not be in smash. Layton is ok tho.
Things are less tense right now. Some personal issues still remain, but for now the situation is not the worst it could be. My priority is lining up a job for the fall and getting money to get my own apartment. Also to lose 20 pounds and gain back 10.
You gave nominations yesterday to two concepts, I believe it was something like a playable Goron and a Zora? I need you to tell me how many nominations out of 5 you give to each.
You gave nominations yesterday to two concepts, I believe it was something like a playable Goron and a Zora? I need you to tell me how many nominations out of 5 you give to each.
I'm also gonna double abstain today. I'm just really not confident in my ability to properly assess anything relating to Level 5, since I'm barely familiar with them personally.
Predicting Earthworm Jim to get around 7.26%.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
Chance: 35%. Overall Level 5 is one of the more notable Japanese third parties to not only not have a playable fighter in Smash, but be missing any representation altogether. They're pretty well known as a majorly Nintendo releasing company, what with some of their most notable series releasing on the DS and 3DS. That being said, something just tells me that it might not happen. I don't really have anything definitive against it, it's just a hunch.
Want: 30%. Personally, I sleep; I couldn't give less of one if I tried. But there's a bunch of people who want this to happen, so eh, let em in, I don't really care. Personally methinks Layton is the fandom one, while Jibanyan is the global one. Either of them would be good.
It's been so long since the release of Sans + no Undertale spirit event, and I wanna hold off on SNES FF rep until later, so rerate Frisk x 5. Jim has seen way better days, and even then is a niche western character which doesn't help his case, so 7.77%.
. Most commonly-suggested Pokemon aren't super exciting to me. I just don't agree with the notion they'd be "jumping in line" or anything. It'd be a popular franchise getting a spot - one that clearly does have fan demand, even if I'm not part of said demand.
