Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wunderwaft]

Alright here are my predictions for the upcoming presentation.

Dante: I find him as the most likely Capcom rep left. The DMC twitter account left dates to watch out for, and one of them turned out to be the same date as the Smash presentation. There's also the case of V's voice actor slipping up and saying Dante is in Smash. With all these put together I believe Dante is the most likely character to be FP5.

Professor Layton: Level-5 has not gotten content in Smash yet despite them being cooperative with Nintendo for over a decade. Analyzing the outline in Sakurai's thumbnail leaves a tint of brown in it. This might imply the character has brown color in their scheme or the background is simply brown, this does benefit Layton even though it doesn't explicitly say it's him. Either way Layton is a sleeper pick that could be our next fighter.

Dragonborn: It's no secret that Skyrim has been used heavily to promote the Switch. The Elder Scrolls is a very big series with a lot of legacy to it. There is that old interview back in 2018 where Bethesda said they talked to Nintendo about Smash. I believe Dragonborn could be the character they chose if these talks actually led to something. Doomguy's fan popularity didn't become big until way after the fighters pass was decided, which is why I believe Nintendo and Sakruai could've chosen Dragonborn instead.

Ryu Hayabusa: Koei Tecmo is another company that has been buddy buddy with Nintendo as well. This time however they do have content in Smash in the form of a Fatal Frame assist trophy, yet no playable character. Ryu Hayabusa ticks all the check boxes that makes him a great Smash character. He's an NES classic. He represents a new company. He would bring a fun moveset. He's basically a character that I very well could see make it as DLC.

Kratos: Because I'm insane and I must throw in a curveball. Okay first of all, Sony doesn't view Nintendo with the same rivalry as they used to before. They have said once that their demographics are different and they are more worried about Microsoft instead. The old suits that had bad blood between each other retired and left both companies, the new generation taking control of Nintendo and Sony don't view each other with the same animosity as their previous generation. Second, a Playstation team was sent to a Smash Bros Ultimate tournament in Japan that had companies compete with each other, I don't think I need to explain how insane this is. Sony sent a team to compete in a tournament of another console competitor. This shows they may be able to be negotiated if Nintendo ever approaches them for a character. And with the inclusion of Microsoft they're pretty much the biggest video game company not involved with Smash.


Other Predictions:
- I believe we'll get an explanation for how the future DLC will work and what we should expect.
- Arle and Viewtiful Joe Mii costumes


As for nominations, I only have one:
Waluigi: This is a big elephant that needs to be addressed. We have new DLC announced yet the question of Waluigi still remains. This is the only character that got deconfirmed which generated so much outrage that a Nintendo representative (Reggie) had to address it and say they'll tell Sakurai about it. If new DLC is on the way that hasn't been planned with the base game, then the possibility of Waluigi being promoted to a playable character exists.

 

[BowserKing]

My predictions

1. Adeleine. First of all, she is not represented at all in smash, not even as a spirit or Mii costume. Second, she would totally fit for a Kirby rep and a cartoony character rep, which we both need. Another thing is how popular Kirby: Star Allies is, which gives Adeleine more of a chance to appear.

2. Edelgard. Lets face it, a Fire Emblem: Three Houses rep is inevitable. And I choose Edelgard, due to her axe abilities giving her uniqueness to the cast of characters. Plus the popularity of Three House gives her a boost of a chance of getting in.

3. Sylux or Porky. We need another villain In the roaster. Porky would help represent the Mother Franchise, by giving it an antagonist to make things interesting. Metroid got a huge boost in representation in Ultimate, so Sylux could help it out even further. The again, who knows.

4. Sword or Shield Rep. Earlier there was complaining about this game not having every Pokémon in the game, but thanks to DLC, this would give people a second chance in enjoying Sword or Shield. Since I've played Shield, I have a few suggestions, but my main one is Frosmoth as we need a Bug Type and Ice Type Pokémon in the roaster. There are other suggestions, but I'll leave it at that.

Rerates

Fawful
Ray-Man
Porky (in case he does not get in)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Predictions:
1. Dante
Even though he's been DC'ed a few times in the past, the recent posts on Twitter seem to hint towards a potential Smash inclusion. Also Grant Kirkhope did something similar with Banjo before he got in.

2. Doomslayer
He's also been getting mentioned a lot recently, and the Cacodemon/Mallow leak further supports his inclusion. He's also a great choice to represent the FPS genre in Smash, as he's known as the founding father of FPS games.

3. Fire Emblem Three Houses rep/Gen 8 Pokémon
Both of these games have been very popular recently, and would make sense for a post pass inclusion, if we get one after FP5's reveal. There's also a lot of moveset potential coming from the characters in these games.

4. Arle Nadja
Another character whose name has been recently thrown around a lot in the past few days. The pic of the day tweets from Sakurai have stirred up a lot of speculation, as well as Puyo Puyo's director retweeting the direct announcement. She is my sleeper pick, though I wouldn't be super excited for her inclusion tbh.

5. Crash Bandicoot
This one is my long shot pick, but I have a gut feeling he could happen. He makes so much sense to be the final character, as Crash is a legendary icon of the 90's console wars. Since he is now owned by Activision (who gets along well with Nintendo), I could see Crash making it in as the one character that makes the internet explode. He's also backed up with tons of fan support, and even some developers of the N. Sane Trilogy. Make it happen Sakurai!

Rerates:
Crash (if he doesn't make it)
Waluigi (meme pick)
Ryu Hayabusa (He's another character that would've made the list if Arle wasn't the talk of the town recently.)

Noms: Toxtricity x15

My character prediction, because nobody is expecting her, is going to be
Hatsune Miku

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Hatsune Miku is NOT a video game character.

TCT~Phantom Glad to hear that you're doing a lot better. Did I do this right? If not, let me know so I can make some changes.

 

[NintenRob]

100 noms to the most accurate guess? Now that's interesting.

1 Dante. To me, he's probably the most likely Capcom character. He's stylish, cool and popular. The date is also kinda interesting. Would make cool crossover material with Bayonetta

2 Byleth. I'd so prefer Edelgard or Dimitri (or all 3 lords in one) but I must admit I think Byleth is more likely, he's the main character after all. But also really boring. Obviously the monastery would be his stage though

3. Travis Touchdown. New game and such, also the director has wanted it for years and is apparently good friends with Sakurai. Now one I'm interested in though

4. Fudge it, I'm giving Edelgard her own spot. I'd still prefer Dimitri, but she's cool too. I think Three Houses has a real shot, but I also don't give a shot about third parties.

5. I'll throw a less popular pick in, Agumon, or Digimon in general. We haven't had a Namco character since Pac-Man and that digimon and Pokemon crossover potential would be great, maybe he could digivolve throughout battle. His stage would likely feature a bunch digimon as hazards which would be used in trailer to help capture that Digimon vs Pokemon feel better.


Honourable mentions

Professor Layton
KosMos
Jibanyan
Heihachi
Crash
Doom

Can we still nominate today?
Carmen Sandiego x5

Who do I want rerated?

Assist promotions
Spirit promotions
Dante if not revealed


Also welcome back TCT. I'm sorry all that had to happen to you. Just make sure your own health comes first. This is just a forum thread. Good luck with everything

 

[3BitSaurus]

So if everyone is doing more than one character for predictions:

Predictions

1. Doom Slayer. Can't believe I'm actually going with him, but considering we're ditching the disconfirmation lists, this guy is a candidate from a new genre and company and has a little bit going for him and nothing really against... yeah, that's my bet.
2. Dante. Slightly less possible than DS, because of that interview with Matt Walker where he said it wasn't happening. But Capcom in general has some good evidence in their favor and Dante is one of the frontrunners right now.
3. Phoenix Wright. The other Capcom frontrunner along with Dante, also has one or two things in his favor, mainly a longer relationship with Nintendo.

Honorable mentions are Arle and Sora, but I think both are just my own wishful thinking. The first is from Sega and I don't think they're double-dipping. Sora would be way too big of a deal considering Smash reveals are frontloaded.

Nominations
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, let's see. I feel especially lost about Fighter 5. I got no clue about who it could be and frankly it's hard to say that I care too much with more DLC coming up. However the recent Zippo rumors struck a chord with me, not because it's necessarily legit but because it makes sense for the typical "disappointing final reveal" to be a more Nintendo aligned character - after all, Nintendo chose the characters this time around, so I don't see them following up a trend of big juicy third parties with someone that isn't a Sakurai pick (that's Terry) or has strong history with the brand to carry them. Well, this makes sense in my head, so with that in mind, my predictions (with no hope of being right).

Phoenix Wright: I do however maintain that Capcom has a very strong shot at getting a character. I would have said Dante, but he doesn't make sense as a final reveal, not to mention that I think he would've been announced at the Game Awards, makes too much sense. Plus all this noise, I dunno, it's doubtful that so much would slip up in such a conspicuous way. As for Nick himself, he's iconic and popular, yet niche and very Nintendo-centric.

Professor Layton: In the same vein as Wright, the Professor is even more Nintendo-focused as he didn't even get on other consoles. He's definitely a low-key pick yet would probably be quite popular. And Level-5 as a whole has been very present on Nintendo. (And he has brown which yes I think is a good indicator)

Travis Touchdown: Travis probably wouldn't exist without Nintendo. His original games are Wii games and they're supposed to be played with the Wiimote, whatever ports may be aren't the real versions, and TSA and III are Switch exclusives. I think of all characters he's the closest to Bayonetta.

Cooking Mama: you jest, but honestly Cooking Mama is one of those "I can't believe it's not Nintendo!" characters and has found constant success. Would Sakurai be ballsy enough to include her as DLC? Sure, I think he is.

Farmer/Jack/Pete from Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons: maybe not as likely as the others but the rules say 5 as 100 noms is a good deal. Anyway yeah super underrated.

If I had to choose one, rn I'm feeling Layton.

Rerates I'd like:
Dante
Shadow
Ryu Hayabusa
Waluigi

Noms: Kiryu x5 I guess

 

[Jomosensual]

Predictions for DLC 5
Arle - Think a lot of the evidence here is reaching or based on not great theories, but that's still a lot more than a lot of characters have going for them. For an already repped company but could have a loophole with Joker being from Atlus. Has also scored highly on popularity polls. There's a legit shot here.


Phoenix Wright - No Capcom DLC reps so far seems odd. Resident Evil was going to get this spot before it got spirited away and I feel like whoever it was with DMC wouldn't have been able to say "Hey guys, wait for the 16th for something" if it was Smash because that feels like a pretty obvious violation of an NDA. That leaves us with Phoenix, who I feel like it above the rest of the pack for Capcom. He's also fairly requested and I'd be shocked if Capcom didn't get a DLC character before we're all done here. He also really fits what Zippo said yesterday, which I'll talk more about below


Travis Touchdown - Zippo's post from yesterday brought him back into my mind. There was some possible deconfirmations really early on in the DLC process with him being one of them, but now that we know people are able to lie and not break NDAs(Hi Grant) I think he's back on the table. Travis has been fairly requested and Marvelous has content in the game with no playable characters. Zippo may or may not have back tracked it, but there had to be a reason he hasn't fully backed away from it yet I wouldn't be surprised if he was DLC 5

Agumon - Longshot pick here, but Bandi Namco could get another rep. Digimon would be a new series and I could totally see Sakurai wanting to set up a Pokemon vs. Digimon fight for DLC. Pretty much everyone has said no Lloyd, Heihachi seems to swing back and forth from likely to unlikely by the minute, KOS MOS was likely just a product of leaks and other people bangwagoning off of those leaks, and Soul Calibur doesn't feel the most likely either. Leaves BN in a tough spot for another rep, but hey, weirder things have happened.


Kratos - Going for a wild one here, but I think theres a reason why we haven't seen DLC 5 yet. It could be because Sakurai wants to be the one to do a live reveal on it..... but what if it isn't? What if he's saving it because the reveal is too big to slap at the end of a normal direct and you can't exactly show off Kratos at the start of one and be like "Ok, well now here's some random Daemon X Machina stuff." What if it's so big that you have to dedicate something extra to it? Because adding a Sony rep would be that exactly, especially if it's someone like Kratos. I still think there's something to Sony sending reps to a Smash tournament, and it's become pretty clear they view Microsoft as their top competition now. Sakurai did mention that it took some arm twisting to get everyone back for Ultimate, but perhaps there was one more arm twisted that we didn't hear about.

If I had to rank them I'd go
1. Phoenix Wright
2. Travis Touchdown
3. Arle
4. Agumon
5. Kratos


Characters I think need a rerate
Gen 8 Pokemon
3 houses rep
Bandanna Dee
Geno
Sony Rep(We did Drake, Kratos, Ellie, and Aloy but not the concept, not sure this counts)
Assist Trophy promotions
Spirit promotions
Master Chief
Steve
And the 5 I mentioned above if they dont get added in.
Ezio


Noms(IDK if these count)
Big Daddy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

King Boo
13.50% Chance - 43.07% Want
Winners of predictions were Jomosensual with 12.00% and DanganZilla5 with 15.00%. Pretty sure it's the first time two different numbers have been equally close.

Echo: 27e
0.01% Chance - 24.18% Want
Winners of predictions were Perkilator and RealPokeFan11 by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with a precise 0.00%
As the only Echo we've rated so far, 27e has both the highest and lowest scores for an Echo. If taken as a concept, it has the lowest chance of them all. (In fact, the only reason it's not an exact zero is because it was rounded up from 0.005%)

Noctis Lucis Caelum
2.62% Chance - 33.36% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft with 2.60%
I swear, you guys are the only people who can give the main character of a game that sold 9 million copies, has an 83 on Metacritic, and is on a Nintendo console these scores.

The holders of the almighty extra noms are...

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 33
Jomosensual 5
Perkilator 15
RealPokeFan11 10
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 10

 

[warpenguin55]

Predictions, In order of least wanted to most
Arle:
I think this one is pretty likely. There is a bunch of loose evidence pointing to her (Papa Genos pointed some stuff out, it's not hard evidence but it does suggest her). As much as I hate Daisy theory, believe that Color theory is not a valid theory, and don't think the Kirby Avalanche thing matters at all, it's the amount of small stuff like that which keeps adding up. Even if I think it's stupid or invalid evidence, I can't deny that there is a lot of small things hinting at her. Arle is my least wanted of the 5 predictions because I don't care. I don't care about Puyo-Puyo or about Arle as a character, and if she arrives in Smash, chances are I still won't have any interested in her franchise. Not to say I wouldn't give her or the other content arriving with her a chance, but even if I love the stage and playing Arle, I still can't see myself caring about Puyo-Puyo. Sounds harsh but I don't know how else to say it. As long as it's not Jibanyan(probably my least wanted) or something like the Dog from Jumpstart 1st Grade I won't rage quit.

Geno:
There is no denying the demand for Geno. He's easily the most requested character still on the table. The only issue with him that I can find is that he's owned by 2 track per character Square Enix. Geno is low on my list because I have no experience with the character and no attachment to him outside of the fact that he's heavily requested for smash. I get the sentiment for him, it would be cool from Geno to join up with the Mario universe again. I just can't be invested in a character I have no experience with like him. Geno ranks higher than Arle on the want side of things because I know it would make a ton of people happy if he came to smash. And he would free up a slot on most peoples wish list for a new character to enter discussions.

Lara Croft:
Lara isn't a character I desperately want in smash. However, I think Lara deserves an invite more than anyone on this list. She is the female video game icon and has been for a really long time. I don't have the most experience with her, I've only played Shadow of the Tomb Raider. She's been around for a while so there is a pretty good amount of games to pull from. There are definitely characters I want in over Lara, but in terms of who deserves a slot in smash, I put her at the very top of the list. Also, please no spoilers, I'm not done with the game.


Dante:
Dante has.... stuff happening. 1st, there's the thing about the voice actor for V potentially leaking that Dante was DLC 5. The creator of DMC (forgot his name, sorry!) said Dante would not get in smash without being on the Switch first, and that prerequisite is no longer an issue. Also isn't there something going around about the creator hyping 1/16 and possibly breaking an NDA or something? The reason I want Dante is simple, he's cool. I like DMC5, but, like Tomb Raider, please no spoilers I haven't finished it yet. If Akira isn't going to make it in, Dante is my second choice. Their games are pretty similar and I enjoy both.



Rex & Pyra:
I haven't finished Xenoblade 2 yet (I didn't figure out a method to stop myself from burning out until last month, that's the reason I haven't finished the last 3 games I've mentioned. It also takes me forever to unburn out). I like Rex & Pyra. I've actually put 100 hours into XB2, the world is cool and fun to explore. I wasn't very happy when Rex was just a Mii Costume and I wish I could say I used it more, but that would require me to play more Mii Sword Fighter and I don't really like playing the Mii's much. Anyway, the very fact that Rex (probably with Pyra/Mythra) was planned (Confirmed by Sakurai himself) means there is, atleast imo, a chance for them to get in until either there is a deconfirmation or the DLC ends. I also believe that DLC after the fighters pass was not planned originally, so Mii Costumes and Spirits no longer hurt the chances of potential DLC (excluding Sans).

If I put these in order of chance, It would look like something like(Most to least):
Dante
Arle
Geno
Lara
Rex & Pyra


Before I list my rerates, is there a limit on these? I didn't see one mentioned by TCT~Phantom (Welcome Back, hope things keep getting better for you) but everyone is posting 3.

Noms: Echo Fighters post pass x5

Rerates:
Lol Rep
Dante
Arle Nadja
Geno
Lara Croft
Rex & Pyra
Doom Guy
Phoenix Wright
Steve
Porky
Lloyd Irving
Crash Bandicoot
Edelgard
Rillaboom

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Sounds harsh but I don't know how else to say it. As long as it's not Jibanyan(probably my least wanted) or something like the Dog from Jumpstart 1st Grade I won't rage quit.

I already know where you got that idea from lmao. We've rated someone similar before

GoodGrief741 Edit: nevermind. I can't math

 

[Ninjaed]

Edit: it was so big I forgot... Welcome back Phantom! I hope things will turn for the better for you and your family. Don't you worry about disappointing us internet scrubs, just have fun and enjoy some well-deserved relaxation.

Well, let's try to predict...

Dante: I feel this is one of the best contenders, not only for DMC pretty much inventing a new genre (which Bayonetta derives from) but also for its success, appeal and being generally pretty well-known as well as having many cameos to its name. Emo Dante may not have pleased many, the series is looking good again. Not much else to add, others talked about it already, moving on.

Lloyd: another very strong contender, Tales of is a massive series, not to mention owned by Bandai-Namco, the same people who developed Smash Ultimate. While not the most popular, Lloyd is probably the most recognisable. He could be swapped for Yuri or whoever else, it doesn't change the fact Tales of is a very big name, considered as one of the best RPG series with a dynamic battle system that is widely enjoyed (I don't know enough as to the impact it may have had on gaming as a whole so I'll abstain here).

Chosen Undead: can anyone deny the shockwaves Dark Souls generated that reverberated throughouh the gaming world? Dark Souls clones is now a thing and it revived (or reminded people of) many gamers' will to be challenged by the games they play rather than be held by the hand, guided through every task with boring ease. You're no cartoonishly invincible/strong hero like you may see in other RPGs (MC worshipping abounds in that genre), in fact you're very vulnerable and it's your skill that shines through in the end.

Phoenix Wright: objection! This is such a well-known and influential franchise, seriously. Finding a moveset would pretty much be the only negative Nick's inclusion would have. The games are famous, they are successful, it's one of Capcom's biggest names... Hard not to include it, if not as FP #5 then in the following DLC.

Kiryu Kazuma: Yakuza is finally making a name to itself internationally, including a kinda T-RPG spin-off due this year. It's one of Sega's biggest names currently, would make more than perfect sense in a fighting game like Smash... but more importantly, it'd also be a tribute to Shenmue as well as its creator, a pioneer in the video game industry who's behind arcade hits and some innovations with his Virtua games back when the games turned to 3D. While the man himself is not really relevant anymore, the Yakuza series serves as a spiritual successor to his work - a successful successor.

4 honorable mentions:
- KOS-MOS, used to be the face of the Xeno series, now shares it with Shulk. Still a beloved mascot especially by Monolith whose very first project was Xenosaga.
- Monster Hunter, defined a new genre and is one of Capcom's highest grossing franchises. I don't think it's been deconfirmed yet, despite Rathalos being in the game already... not that it matters that much, with NDA existing and all...
- Nightmare (or Siegfried?) from Soul Calibur, a big name in the fighting genre. Never followed its competitive scene so I've no clue how it fares there though, part of why it's merely a mention.
- Crash Bandicoot... I don't know about others, but I can't think Crash or Banjo without thinking of the other... maybe because both are mascots from the late 90s? Anyway, Banjo represents Microsoft, Crash would represent Sony. Big contender but too many uncertainties to make it into my top 5.

Rerate... ugh, this is the hardest part for me, not even kidding.
Eh, 2B I guess? I've heard they're planning on making a new entry and stuff here and there... it was pretty vague, but I've on doubt in my mind that Square Enix isn't going to leave a game that sold over 4 million copies and plenty of cameos since without a sequel or a spin-off. With that in mind, despite being disconfirmed, it may have simply been NDA in action. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on that.

 

[Deleted member]

I should preface this by saying I'm inclined to believe Vergeben's deconfirmation list being right in the end. He may have pulled a Vergebruh Moment by saying a ****load of company reps aren't FP5 and then scrapping it afterwards, but I still think he's got decent credibility for Smash related leaks and doesn't ********* people for anything Smash related like what Sabi does. Tomorrow will probably be make or break for that credibility though; if a character that's on his list ends up being FP5, everyone's gonna crucify his ass as soon as the presentation ends.

Now with that out of the way, prediction time! There's no mention of having to choose only 1 character per franchise, so here we go!

1: Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors)

2: Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors)

Yep, I still believe Dynasty Warriors is the franchise involved for FP5. Koei-Tecmo and Nintendo having a business relationship with 1 another? Check. Omega-Force developing a few games under 2 of Nintendo's largest IPs? Check. A Dynasty Warriors game [as well as a couple of Musou games like Warriors Orochi 4 and One Piece Pirate Warriors 3] ported to the Switch? Check. A Dynasty Warriors character not mentioned on Vergeburger's kill list? Check. Honestly, we could be in for the most lowkey reveal throughout the Fighter Pass' lifespan, and Zhao Yun and Lu Bu are the 2 prime candidates to rep the series for FP5. As we probably all know, Zhao Yun is the poster boy of the franchise as he's made the most appearances on various Musou covers and usually ranks above the top 5 in Japanese popularity polls while Lu Bu is the more iconic figure for being the mightiest warrior across the land by 1 shotting you for pursuing. Both have their merits, so I have both of them listed on here.

3: Yukimura Sanada (Samurai Warriors)

Alright I'm only mentioning him on here just in case it turns out he is FP5 or will be included as an Echo Fighter for Zhao Yun. You can't go wrong in FP5 having more characters than advertised right? Aside from that, Samurai Warriors is notably smaller than Dynasty Warriors which is why I'm not really as high on him as compared to the the previous 2, but there was a SW spinoff title called Spirit of Sanada which focused a lot on him and the Sanada clan, so it's not like he has nothing going for his chances I guess.

4: York (Deadly Premonition)

Alright I'm also only mentioning him because if it turns out he's the character in FP5 I might lose control at work tomorrow. There is nearly nothing leading towards York being in FP5 at all, but I'll predict him being in it anyways cause it's a prediction I really want to be right about even if it won't happen.

And that's basically it. I'll see yall tomorrow evening so that I can either start bragging about how right I was or tell you how I hate myself for being wrong and how I have no faith in the next Fighter Pass having anyone I want.

 

[Groose]

Hm. Hmmmm. Hmmmmmmmm.

I'm not sure what we'll be getting tomorrow. I don't even really want to guess--but I'll guess Dante because even though I don't really want him, there is enough around him at the moment that it's worth considering.

Honestly I'll probably get hyped for most characters. Most of my favorites got in or aren't on the table. Rooting for some of my favs though: Phoenix would be hype beyond hype and any Bethesda candidate would be sweet.

 

[3DSNinja]

My guesses are as follows:
1: MASTER CHIEF: I honestly think he is next y'all. The colours match up, he's popular, unexpected, and would be a perfect end to the FP.
2: Doomguy: He's also incredibly likely. Iconic FPS character, Cacomallow, and Betheseda being heavily rumored as FP5
3: Phoenix Wright: Dante is gonna be revealed at E3 IMO. But... Capcom could get 2 DLC reps, especially since it seems highly likely that Square will with Geno
4:Ryu Hayubusa. I think he is coming. Not sure if he is 5 or not tho.
these 4 IMO are all tied for #1.
nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
Rerates: Shadow, Geno, Phoenix, Chief, Doomguy, Ryu, Waluigi, Dante, Lloyd

 

[chocolatejr9]

Honestly, I don't have any specific predictions. I could see it being a Level-5 character (I can't quite shake the feeling they'll get SOMETHING in Ultimate), or maybe Dante, though I can't help but feel like the DMC3 news is a coincidence. Really, it's hard to say for certain. All I know is that the character's reception will be incredibly divisive.

Rerates:
Rex
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dropping these before going to bed. See you in the morning, when we know the identity of Fighter 5!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Noctis Lucis Caelum pre-1/16 Livestream Predictions

The Blob (De Blob) x105
Toxtricity x100
Kazuma Kiryu x100
Freddy Fazbear x100
Crypto x95
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x90
Carmen Sandiego x90

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
X (Mega Man) x80
Gex x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Decidueye x62
Reporter & Wrestler x60
[Rerate] Waluigi x58
Chun-Li x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
[Rerate] Dante x50
Meowth x50
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x49
Earthworm Jim x45
Concept: Echo Fighters post-Fighter Pass x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x35
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x30
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x30
Urbosa x25

Under 25

Boss: Ender Dragon x24
Giygas x23
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x20
Ring Fit Adventurer x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Big Daddy (BioShock) x15
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x10
Terra Branford x8
Black Shadow x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Concept: Darksiders rep x5
Urshifu x5
Segata Sanshiro x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

The Blob oozes past Kazuma Kiryu and Toxtricity and ends the day as number 1. Freddy Fazbear passes Crypto to tie with Kiryu and Toxtricity for second place.

Today's new challenger is Segata Sanshiro, with 5 noms!

NintenRob We've always done nominations for prediction days, so I think this should be no different. Nominate away!

 

[Calamitas]

Mhh. I honestly don't really wanna make any specific predictions today, because I have no strong feelings about any character in particular making it in at this point. The only real prediction I want to make is that I think that none of the commonly talked about characters are gonna be it - in other words, the insider "kill lists" from the past couple of months are legit. That in turn means that it's gonna be someone that no one's gonna really see coming.

That said though. . . if it somehow ends up being Elma, y'all can bet that while the presentation is still going on, I'll go out and finally buy the Fighter Pass, after none of the previous characters managed to convince me to do so.

So if the above still counts as a valid prediction, I'm gonna do my nominations:
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

1. Dragonborn - I'm not one to take insiders' words as gospel, so I'm by no means certain of this prediction, but we literally have nothing else to go off of, so this is my best bet. If we take both Vergeben and Sabi's lists into account, and Sabi's word that the character was apparently on Vergeben's extended list that he quickly backtracked on, then there are very few notable characters in play. I'm also quite adamant that we won't see a promotion or a company double dipping on the Pass, which narrows it down even further. With all these factors taken into account, Dragonborn (or Dovahkiin if you prefer) makes the most sense by a landslide. He also ties into the whole Bethesda speaking with Nintendo about Smash thing, as well as fitting the supposed brown background, and you also have the off chance that the Cacomallow leak is real. The only insider thing that seems to work against him is Zippo's emergence and him saying that the character has a bit of a special relation with Nintendo, which does not at all line up with Dragonborn. There's also the fact that this prediction relies entirely on insider gossip, and I do think there's a pretty decent chance all of it ends up being wrong, so again, I'm not super confident in this prediction, but I've got nothing else to make an educated prediction off of, so that's what I'm going with.

2. Ryu Hayabusa - Writing off any sort of insider talk, Hayabusa still makes as much sense as he did 4 months ago, when we had our last character reveal and most people considered him one of the strongest contenders going forward. Koei Tecmo are very close to Nintendo, and the Ninja Gaiden trilogy was an essential part of the NES' library, he has most of the same things going for him as Simon did, albeit on a smaller scale (Castlevania as a series has a stronger legacy). He's also a character archetype that we don't really have in Smash yet: a ninja. Some would argue Sheik already fulfills that, but we're talking about a classic take on the trope here, one that wields a katana, is equipped with throwing stars, and can even make clones of himself. He'd have a lot of appeal, could be super unique, and has a strong legacy, it's basically the perfect recipe for a Smash character.

3. Geno - Just to make it clear, I'm certain Geno isn't #5, this is more in case we get the first post-Pass DLC revealed, in which case he is a strong shout. I don't think I need to go over who, what or why, you all know what's up with this guy.

4. Waluigi - Similarly to Geno, this is more of a character that'd make sense as the first post-Pass DLC. The only reason I put him below Geno is because of the dubious position of first party characters at the moment, but either way he'd be a strong opener for our next wave, and in the very unlikely event #5 somehow turns out to be a Nintendo character, he'd be the frontrunner imo.

5. Arle Nadja - I really don't think she's as likely as many others do, and as I said with Dragonborn, I'm pretty sure we're not going to see the same company on the Pass twice. I also don't believe the many theories about her as they're reaching way far, even if it turns out to be her I honestly don't think most of the those were ever hints. The only reason she's here is because it's quite notable that Puyo Puyo's director re-tweeted the news about the presentation, as that's something we've previously seen pay off. It could mean something, it could mean the wrong thing for her, or it could mean nothing, but it's more than what most have going for them.

Re-rates:
Spirit promotions
Assist Trophy promotions

I think these two are going to be the biggest subjects going forward, so it'd be good to cover them asap.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Hey finally we will see the final Fighter Pass character, but I won't be able to watch it live because I have to work during the time of the presentation. But I think I might be able to watch it live by going to the embed link (https://www.youtube.com/embed/_gVlgdnNKRA) once I'm free, by clising my eyes before clicking to play the video (so I'm not spoiled by the updated title or video icon); alternatively if for some reason it doesn't work I've asked a friend to send me a link.

Although I must say I'm a bit disappointed that we get a dedicated Smash stream instead of a full Nintendo Direct. I want to see what 2020 will look life for the Switch in general, not just Smash!

As I've said some times earlier, the fact there are more characters to be revealed after this one probably means we will get Nintendo-owned characters only outside the Fighter Pass, so I'm fully expecting the next character to be third-party from a new IP. Will they be from a company that already gave us a DLC newcomer? I'd like to say that whether that's the case or not has no bearing on their chances for being the last Fighter Pass character, but at the same time part of me believes that if we get multiple DLC characters from the same company then they will come later in order to not promote a single company too much in one pass. For this reason I'll assume that the next character is neither from Altus (or even Sega in general), Square Enix, Microsoft nor SNK (through for the later Terry is treated as the general SNK rep so we're not getting more anyway). This means some notable characters like Lara, 2B or Steve are out for now (but I also assume they have a chance for a spot after the Fighter Pass).

I'm not going to predict anyone in particular, because we're basically in the era where the floodgates for third-party characters are open and we're no longer super elitist about who can get in (which is the exact scenario I didn't want to happen during the Smash 4 speculation era, but now that it happened I actually don't have a problem with it, and now believe the problem was my own mindset). Many characters have some merit due to Nintendo or general video game history as well as being pacticularly popular or iconic for the game genre they come from, so frankly I don't think anyone stands out to the point them being excluded to leave place for others wouldn't make sense.

So I'm going to leave a final prediction consisting of a list of three different characters that I believe fit the description above, in no particular order of likeliness: Doom Slayer, Phoenix Wright, Tracer. Of course it could very well be someone else.

And for post-pass characters? I don't think we will get an announcement, but at least I hope we can expect some information of how they'll be released. In which format will they be sold? Will they be sold together in another Fighter Pass? Or individually like Piranha Plant? Will they come with their own stage or spirit board? And when can we expect them to be released? I think they'll only cover briefly this question, if at all.

 

[zferolie]

My prediction is Shantae, with them also showing their planned Bonus of Geno. I have several reasons for this.

Originally they only planned for this DLC pass, so the last characters I think would be ones fans want. Last time ending on Bayonetta because she won the poll supposidly. I know people like to point out that other times they haven't ended on high notes, but Sakurai this time seems keen on making this his last game, and I feel he wants to end with a bang.

Daisy Theory is strong, and honestly the only hint to the next DLC we got. Even if you look at her as just a placehold, she is there for a reason. Seems to be a very strong hint that its a girl at least. Also, everyone only assumed Daisy was the Placeholder, but what if Mario was as well? Plant is there and he's not a FP but a bonus dlc, so we could have gotten another one.

Color thorey is still strong and honestly is the most likely still going.

Even if leakers don't know who it is, they may be right on who it isn't. Many got deconfirmed as FP5, including Geno, but Shantae was never deconfirmed, and if Geno was a bonus that would be technically correct.

Fatmanonice seems to have some insider speculation and is looking like its a western character. Plus he seems to ve hearing that there may be a bonus with this character as well.

Zippo seems to be implying its someone that has had close ties to Nintendo in the past, but isn't specifically a nintendo character or owned by them. Shantae fits both of these to a T, as she was only on nintendo for a long time, and even Wayforward was considreing her a Nintendo character when then were making her. Plus she was in a WarioWare game too,

So those are all the reasons why I think its Shantae, with geno being shown as a bonus free DLC or something.

But they are spirits, some people may be yelling. I say spirits never deconfirmed, and I COULD see Sakurai adding Shantae and Geno Spirits in the base game to throw people off. Admit it, if they weren't spirits, they would be everyones top expectations.

 

[DaUsername]

I'm guessing that we'll get one (and only one) of the following:
-Doomguy/Doom Slayer/The Player Character From DOOM
Guessing him mainly because that Mii costume leak hasn't been disproven yet. He seems like he'd be a unique choice for this game.
-Geno
Also because costume leak. Though he is already a spirit so I'm less sure about this one.
-Arle
There seems to be a handful of things hinting towards her, so it could happen. I'm still not 100% sure, though
-Crash Bandicoot
-Phoenix Wright
I'm onky predicting these two because I really want them. Plus, they're popular characters anyway so they could happen.

Noms: Bandana Dee x5

 

[DaUsername]

Sakurai is a ****ing hack.

 

[Jomosensual]

Ok then, we actually have a 1st party

 

[Kotor]

Now, my preference was Edelgard, but at this point, I don't care. Seeing the "Fighter Pass is all 3rd Party" be destroyed is satisfying.

 

[Sari]

Three Houses comes out victorious!

Would've preferred Edelgard but I'm still so happy right now.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Welp, at least I got one of my predictions right...

Spoiler: yaaaaaaay

 

[Jomosensual]

Ok, so the reactions day will be fun. Personally I'm content. Was team Edelgard the whole way but I get Byleth was chosen

 

[GoodGrief741]

Heh heh heh heh, man, today is gonna be a day, isn't it?

I'll look over your predictions to see if anyone called this, then I'll see what was confirmed/deconfirmed.

 

[Ninjaed]

I was expecting Byleth but not as FP1 #5, I figured they'd be in the 2nd DLC wave. Speaking of which...

6 NEW FIGHTERS?!

And here I thought Christmas was already over! Sakurai, you're doting on us far too much! (not that I'm complaining, love you for it)

 

[3DSNinja]

what the hell sakurai?
actually wait this isn't a sword fighter.
also get rekt "first parties can't happen" people
Also is Altair the one from Assassin's Creed?

 

[NintenRob]

I don't believe it, I ACTUALLY CALLED IT????? Even nailed the stage....

Looking at the other posts, how was I the only one to say freaking Byleth? There were a couple edelgard and a general Three Houses but wow.


Must admit, I'm pretty satisfied, even if it is Fire Emblem. I liked Three Houses, I'm still playing it. I thought the Monastery was a no brainer stage eventually even if it couldn't be DLC (which it thankfully was)

also YES A NINTENDO CHARACTER, I KNEW THEY WOULDN'T JUST ABANDON US!!! I'm so happy to finally have first parties again.

 

[Nemuresu]

So, are ratings coming later today or do they wait until the 28th?

 

[Calamitas]

Oh yeah, just wanna throw a suggestion out - could we maybe do an overall satisfaction rating for Fighter Pass 1, now that it's done?

 

[Perkilator]

My reactions

-Now, regarding Byleth, I'm kinda mixed. On one hand, Byleth seemed like a character more suited for Season 2, not a season full of characters requested more than them and not born in Nintendo. On the other hand, I genuinely enjoyed TH and Byleth was a character I genuinely loved and wanted for Smash. So yeah, I'm happy TH represented at all, but...I would've preferred it to be in Season 2.

-A well-deserved L for the Rabbids to be a Mii costume. Oh, and the Cuphead one's cool, I guess. But I gotta say, I was genuinely surprised by the Altair costume.

-YES TO 6 MORE CHARACTERS. As long as there's no Fortnite or DOOM nonsense (no offense to fans of either) you bet I'm buying it. And Byleth might as well be proof there WILL be Nintendo characters in later DLC.

TWO MORE YEARS OF MR. SAKURAI'S WILD RIDE.

Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x15

 

[Jomosensual]

Wait, are we at a new day? See the title changed but nothing in here yet?

 

[Sari]

Wait, are we at a new day? See the title changed but nothing in here yet?

Yes we are starting the new day. TCT is probably busy right now but he had time to change the title like he did after Terry's livestream.

Post your reactions to the Direct here.

Today is going to be a very intense day.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I believed we were getting this character at some point, so they weren't the end of the world for like Corrin was. Still, sticking Byleth at the end of the pass after all third-parties seems incredibly strange to me. Byleth now sticks out like a sore thumb and that is what makes them dissapointing. The thought that at some point they intended this character to be the end of it all makes me grimace. Definitely not buying them untill I get some characters I actually want, and only for completion sake.

On the bright side they might indicate that more first-parties are on the way (Bandana please). I say might because Rex, Howard and a Gen 8 mon all got shafted so this could still be a case of FE getting special treatment. Wouldn't be the first time...

Atleast Cuphead is great and makes me hopefull for Hollow Knight to show up in any capacity.

Also, my hopes for Rayman have gone up a fair amount.

Overal feelings on the pass: >>>>>>>>>>>Byleth 5/10 It has a little something for everyone

Hollow Knight costume x5

 

[Ninjaed]

I don't believe it, I ACTUALLY CALLED IT????? Even nailed the stage....

Looking at the other posts, how was I the only one to say freaking Byleth? There were a couple edelgard and a general Three Houses but wow.


Must admit, I'm pretty satisfied, even if it is Fire Emblem. I liked Three Houses, I'm still playing it. I thought the Monastery was a no brainer stage eventually even if it couldn't be DLC (which it thankfully was)

also YES A NINTENDO CHARACTER, I KNEW THEY WOULDN'T JUST ABANDON US!!! I'm so happy to finally have first parties again.

Probably because everyone (myself included) was expecting the 3rd party fest to continue, with new 1st party fighters left for the post-pass.


And um, are we doing the satisfaction thing right now? In doubt, here's mine:

I'm pretty satisfied overall. Could've been better (for me) but could've also been much worse.
- While not a fan of Joker's gameplay, I'm glad to see Persona get recognition. It and Shin Megami Tensei are 2 series I've been into for some time. I'm still sad there's no Persona 3 FeMC costume though... Oh well.
- Hero is a blast to play with. He definitely scared people, some going so far as to banning him from tournaments (is that even still a thing now? lol) but rewards a kind of gameplay that differs from the usual rushdown one we commonly see.
- Banjo is the reveal that left me indifferent. I don't actually have much to say about him, as I've almost never played against him and didn't enjoy playing him either. Still, he's a fighter that heavily relies on fundamentals so if you want to train those, Banjo's your bear... and bird. 2 in 1.
- Surprisingly to me, I really enjoyed Terry. I'm not a fan of traditional fighting games and hate command inputs with a passion. Seriously, they're a relic from the past that should be cast away already, smash has proven we can have tons of moves and combos without complicated inputs that vary from character to character... And yet... Terry gave me some of the best fun I've had playing a smash character in a while. Flashy moves with an impact you can feel... it's so damn satisfying playing him! If he didn't have command inputs, he'd be one of my mains for sure!
- Byleth... well I can't say much about their gameplay yet, but I enjoyed playing FE3H. It's really nice to see Fire Emblem finally spread its wings and willing to embrace new gameplay styles and elements to give the series a much needed breath of fresh air. The one slight disappointment I may have is that they'd have fit better in the FP2. To many of us, FP1 was all about introducing new game worlds to smash. Still, finally introducing the weapon swap system to smash isn't something I can be mad about and I already can't wait to play her! Future F!Byleth main muahahaha!

 

[Jomosensual]

Yes we are starting the new day. TCT is probably busy right now but he had time to change the title like he did after Terry's livestream.

Post your reactions to the Direct here.

Today is going to be a very intense day.

Cool thanks! Reactions time:

I'd give my hype over finding out the character is Byleth to be about 6/10. Lean towards happy but I really wanted Edelgard so a bitter sweet reveal. That being said, she got a spirit, character background, and alt costume. That's a pretty good haul for someone who isn't playable. Also, the music made it in which is what I wanted at the bare minimum. Overall just happy that 3H didn't get spirit boarded like some other series I wanted in. I liked the trailer too, although it took so long to show the splash art that I thought we were getting faked out and a house leader was getting in instead. The Sothis line about too many swordfighters was fantastic too. Both a funny reference and the type of thing she'd absolutely say. Nailed it completely there.

Moveset for Byleth looks good and interesting. Sakurai went so far to make Byleth different that he didn't even give him/her a counter. instead we have all 3 of the house leaders weapons and the Sword of the Creator. Can't be happier with that. All of it looks good, and finding a way to jam all 4 weapons in equally and well without turning to a wheel like Shulk has is cool. Overall it looks like Byleth might be a character I'm pretty good with and I'm excited to play him/her

Overall, I liked the rest of the direct too. Gonna have to rewatch the start of Sakurai's reveal stuff because I didn't feel like I needed him to explain who Byleth was or what Fire Emblem is(Really Sakurai? It won a fan vote at the VGAs and we already have a ton of characters from the series) but like I said above, pretty much all the characters I wanted to see as backgrounds or extras got in, while the Mii Costumes didn't kill anyone off I wanted.

Also on the topic of Mii Costumes, can we talk about how great that Cuphead one is? My god. I'm still kinda laughing over it. Fantastic work. Really love the fully suited versions of those. Makes me wonder about the indies getting in the game as playable but those Mii Costumes with a music track work pretty well for me. If Hollow Knight was the next one to be shown off like that I wouldn't mind.

Finally 6 MORE FIGHTERS! I was hoping for one more fighters pass but wasn't sure if it would be reality. DLC is going until the end of 2021 too so we'll have a lot more time for this stuff. Honestly, it's going to kinda suck when it's all over given that we would have spent what, about 3-4 years on speculation? Overall, 6 is more than enough and I'm really happy to get it. My stance on who gets in stays the same, which is give me just one more extremely hype moment and the rest is yours to do what you please Sakurai, cricitism free from me unless it's a 4th party character or one of the few I really do not want.

Overall, I'm gonna go 8/10. Was a little bummed over the character not being the 3H rep I wanted but it was well done and I was pleased with the rest of the direct. When I stopped to think about it, if it was Edelgard instead I would have given it a 9 or 10, so when that much of the direct is good it's hard to be disappointed

Edit: Forgot to give my fighters pass overall ratings, so I'll do that now

For how hyped I was over all the characters, I'd give it a 6 out of 10. Joker broke my brain to the point where I woke people up with my reactions to him. Hero and Banjo I didn't really want but I was happy to just get them in after 6 months of the Banjo vs. Steve and Erdrick is a literal who wars. Terry I was disappointed with, and I already explained Byleth above. Was hoping for maybe a little more oomph(no pun intended) with one more character but I was won over with each either in the trailer or when Sakurai showed them off.

For gameplay I give it a 9 or maybe even a 10. Hero is my absolute favorite to play and one of my mains now. Joker is a good deal of fun too, although my brother mains him so I don't always play him. Byleth looks good and fun although its hard to say until I play him. Terry and Banjo I've only played a little bit of but both are well designed at least. Terry's vocals make me love playing against as or against him, and even though Banjo is fairly generic I still enjoy seeing him out there. Not sure what about it I like exactly but sometimes its just fun to see a cartoon bear hit people with his bird friend.

For the extra content I'm giving it a full 10. The KoF stages is one of my favorites. Mementos is fantastic. Spiral Mountain is unique and not something I thought would work until I saw it. Hero's stage is fairly bland and Byleths looks fine but the top 3 are some really great stuff. The music is perfect for all of them. I always wanted some Persona 5 and 3H tracks in the game since I started playing those games. Hero and Banjo had some happy and upbeat tracks come with them and I always like some songs like that in the game. I don't think I've even heard all of Terry's yet but I really like Psycho Solider. And the Mii Costumes they've absolutely nailed, especially the Sans and Cuphead ones. Usually I don't care about them too much but they really made those worth the purchase.

For a final pass rating I'll give it a 9/10. All the characters fit. Most of the stages are good and none of them are outright bad. The music is perfect and the gameplay is fun. Only thing I ask for is one more big moment and this is an easy 10/10 from me. If FP2 is anywhere close to this level of good(which is probably will be) then Smash Ultimate will be forever one of my favorite games of all time

Will quote this post with a prediction if/when we find out what that is

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Accidental post, please delete