Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Noct This

Chance: 0.5%. He's not a downright no hoper but he's as close as you can get for somebody who could theoretically make it. First, we've yet to see a second series unique out of any third party series to date, and something tells me this might at least be a bit deliberate. Second is that even if we did get a second series unique from a third party, considering the sorry state of Cloud's Spirit and music it seems FF licensing is a massive pain in the ass, much more than Dragon Quest, thus I don't think it'll be FF. Third, he competes with not only other company reps, but even other Final Fantasy reps. And while I don't think this matters too much he doesn't seem to have major fan demand all around. In general, I really don't see him getting in. I don't think he's hopeless, but he gets too close for me to give him a full point.

Want: 15%. I'd abstain here since I've never truly played FFXV. But, if I wanted somebody else from a Final Fantasy game, I'd take Rydia, Bartz, and Kefka well before Noctis. Also since I don't know his abilities I don't know if he'd be cool.

Paper Mario x 5. Once he catches up to it I'll go back to nomming Assists in Updates. 2B will have major contention between those worried about both company contention and potentially Mai syndrome, so I'll estimate her chance at around 7.25%.

 

[3DSNinja]

XV
CHance:15%: He has recency on his side, as well Square has already it's him for other crosslcers. And neither Sora or Geno are actually competition, as Sora is Disney and Geno is partially Nintendo and is basically confirmed anyways. But Black Mage or terra are definitely more popular, and he has Lara Croft and 2B as competition.
want:100%: FFXV was a game... I loved. It's ending was great, the gameplay was fun, and tho some characters were underdeveloped nd the endgame was wayyyy too linear, and the final boss was far too long, I still enjoyed jt. and Noctis in Smash would be amazing. Also more FF music is never a bad thing.
Nominations:Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not Aaron Paul

Chance: 7%
Noctis is the most recent protagonist in the Final Fantasy series, and barring a miracle will remain as such for the entire duration of Smash's DLC. It doesn't even need to be said that he's iconic, how could he not be? His game was very successful, and reviews were generally positive, but overall the many problems in development showed and it was largely seen as a disappointment. That said, Noctis himself is seen as a very well done protagonist with strong moveset potential for Smash. And, he has a Nintendo appearance. So, could he get in Smash?

Well, I dunno. He has recency on his side, but FFXV is still a four year old game, that did live on through the many expansions but has finally been laid to rest. Final Fantasy certainly has characters with more demand - I believe Sakurai mentioned Terra and Bartz, and I don't doubt that most of the others are around as if not more popular than Noctis (and that's assuming that we get characters from another FF because we could easily just get Sephiroth). Sure, if popularity is similar, then Noctis being the newest can probably beat out guys like Tidus and Lightning, but when there's characters with strong Nintendo history like Cecil and Terra I'm not sure Noctis emerges victorious. And that's before mentioning: Super Mario RPG's Geno, Tomb Raider's Lara Croft, The World Ends With You's Neku Sakuraba, Chrono Trigger's Crono, Secret of Mana's Randi, Bravely Default's Agnes Oblige, Deus Ex's Adam Jensen, Bubble Bobble's Bub and Bob, anyone from Octopath Traveler, NieR Automata's 2B, and the juggernaut that is Kingdom Hearts' Sora. I think we can all agree that Square Enix is anyone's game.

Want: 75%
Despite not being too fond of FFXV, I do have a soft spot for Noctis, and I would welcome him in Smash. But I won't lose any sleep if he never gets in.

Man, I wonder when we'll get Final Fantasy XVI. I remember before Octopath Traveler had its final name, I was secretly hoping they would reveal it to be FFXVI. Still kinda wish they had.

Noms: Kiryu x5
2B prediction: 41%

Also Final Fantasy 15 isn't on Switch

Technically it is, or at least the Pocket Edition is.

Geno is partially Nintendo and is basically confirmed anyways

Uhhh source? Lmao

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Echo: 27e pre-Noctis Lucis Caelum

Toxtricity x95
Kazuma Kiryu x95
The Blob (De Blob) x95
Crypto x90
Freddy Fazbear x90
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Carmen Sandiego x85

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
X (Mega Man) x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Gex x75
Sackboy x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Decidueye x62
Reporter & Wrestler x60
[Rerate] Waluigi x58
Chun-Li x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
[Rerate] Dante x50
Meowth x50
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x49
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Concept: Echo Fighters post-Fighter Pass x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x35
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x30
Urbosa x25
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x25

Under 25

Boss: Ender Dragon x24
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Giygas x20
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x20
Ring Fit Adventurer x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x10
[Rerate] Paper Mario x10
Big Daddy (BioShock) x10
Terra Branford x8
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Concept: Darksiders rep x5
Urshifu x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

The Blob oozes past Crypto and Ryu Hayabusa and ties with Toxtricity and Kazuma Kiryu for first place. Crypto warps past Hayabusa and takes fourth place. Freddy Fazbear passes X, Mii Costume: Hollow Knight, Ryo Hazuki and Hayabusa and ties with Crypto at fourth. Carmen Sandiego ties with Hayabusa for sixth, and X, Ryo and the Knight fall off the top seven.

Chun-Li kicks through the 50 nom mark.

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep reaches 25 noms.

Today's sole new nominee is a rerate of Paper Mario, with 10 noms.

 

[BowserKing]

Noctis

Chance: 5%. First, we have 2 Square Enix Reps already, so a third one would for the most part would be expensive. Competition will win against Noctis for the roaster. And the chance of Noctis being the fifth fighter in the fighter's pass is a big 0, given that Final Fantasy is not well represented, there is a chance the fighter's spirit would be the only spirit getting in.

Want: 50%. However, a second final fantasy rep would give it more representation it deserves. Of course, Tifa or Chocobo would be possible second reps that would be a better fit, but either way, it's good, as long as they add Final Fantasy Spirits and soundtracks to the game, to give the franchise decent representation. As for Noctis, that character would be fun to play as.

Prediction: 2B: 5%

Noms: 3 for Giygas and 2 for Black Shadow

 

[Sid-cada]

Noctis

Chance - 0.05% - Final Fantasy seems to have a problem, given how we lost representation from the loss of the Mii costume compared for Chocobos from For. Given that, I don't think any other Final Fantasy characters are likely, and Noctis less so due to lack of fan demand. Outside of being ported to a Nintendo Console, a bear minimum to most, and being the most recent, that's all he has going for him.

Want - 35% - If we had to have another Final Fantasy character, I would prefer one of the classic ones like the Black Mage. I don't care much for RPGs anyways, even this one. I would rather have many other characters.


Predictions

2B - 3.45% - Who knows?


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[Sari]

Noctis

Chance: 5%
With Cloud being in Smash, it's hard to see Sakurai prioritizing another FF character when Square Enix has a lot of other popular candidates like Sora and Geno to name a few. Then again adding, another FF character like Noctis could be a way to finally give the series the amount of Smash content it deserves instead of just two songs and the lack of spirits that aren't Cloud. Even within his own series however, Noctis would have to compete with Sephiroth and Terra Branford (the latter of which was once brought up by Sakurai as a possible contender for a FF slot).

Want: Abstain
Haven't played FFXV so I won't comment. Like with Sora there are a lot of other SE characters I'd want first though.

Furthermore, Dissidia exists for multiple FF characters facing each other in a fighting game.

That's like saying Terry can't be in Smash since King of Fighters exists for multiple Fatal Fury characters facing each other in a fighting game along with other SNK characters. Cloud being in Smash as well as Noctis in Tekken shows that Dissidia doesn't matter when it comes to FF characters crossing over into other fighters.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played FFXV.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Noctis
Chance: 0.1%
Negotiating anything FF seems more trouble than it's worth at this point. It would probably be more appealing for Sakurai and the dev to go for someone from a different series if they still want to put in more Square characters. There are also more options for FF characters that Noctis would have to compete with.

Want: 0%
I'd prefer characters that would bring more than 2 songs and 1 fighter spirit with them. I'm planning to get into Final Fantasy soon but XV isn't on my list as I've heard some less than stellar things about that game. Also, Noctis doesn't do anything for me desing and playstyle wise.

2B: 15.35%
De Blob x5

 

[FelFlick]

NOCTIS

Chance: 15%
Really heavy competition, with Sora and Lara Croft, I believe that only a miracle could put Noctis in.

Want: 100%
Loved Final Fantasy XV and I thought of a mechanic for him using the Taunt buttons to call for his friends, just like in the game. He could have a 2 level bar that would trigger a weaker and stronger version of the attacks of Prompto, Gladius and Ignis, each one summoned by a Taunt button direction when holding Down B.

 

[Ninjaed]

Oh finally my browser isn't derping anymore on this site, yay!

Noctis

Chance: 0%
Unless we get Noctis as a Cloud echo (like Ken to Ryu), he's not getting in since SE has so many reps to choose from that aren't from FF and now DQ. And as a DLC, echo fighters are probably a no-go.

Want: abstain
I have no personal attachment to the guy. That said, his moveset could be pretty swell, what with him teleporting à la Naruto's dad to his sword.

Predictions: 2B - 9%
Here's one such other SE rep. That said, her odds are hurt by SE already getting a rep, but it's a pretty massive company so who knows?

Nominations: Segata Saaanshirooooo x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on Noctis

2B: 11.25%

Toxtricity x5

 

[Jomosensual]

RIP Astral Chain

 

[chocolatejr9]

RIP Astral Chain

Welp, it was a good run. At least we got to rate it at all.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

RIP Astral Chain

Wait did Akira get disconfirmed?

 

[DaUsername]

That Guy From Tekken 7
Chance: 0%
There's no way we're getting another Final Fantasy character. Just look at Cloud's lack of content. Plus, there's still a bunch of franchises to choose from if we do get another SE character.
Want: 0%
As usual, I don't support newcomers from already represented third parties. I'd rather have something new.

2B prediction: 12.9%
Noms: Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Sari]

Wait did Akira get disconfirmed?

Starting on 1/17 for 5 days, the #SmashBrosUltimate spirit event "Chain the Future to Spirits!" will be held. Neuron's newest recruits, as well as Kyle and Lappy will invade the Spirit Board! Don't miss out! pic.twitter.com/mXDaRmmPZ4

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) January 14, 2020

Not only that, but the director of Astral Chain said here that he's a bit let down that Akira won't be playable (but still thankful for the spirit event).

I don't think I've seen a full on deconfirmation like this in a long time.

 

[GoodGrief741]

So, I think it's pretty safe to take Akira Howard as disconfirmed for the foreseeable future. That's too bad.

Disconfirmed

Akira Howard
51.47% Chance - 65.79% Want

Though it is a bit funny that the character we gave the highest chance got disconfirmed like a week after.

 

[Calamitas]

Sasuke

Chance: 0%
Sorry, but I'm just not seeing it. Every single third-party franchise that has made it into Smash has only one original character, which puts Noctis in a terrible position. Not to mention, Square Enix has already received a new fighter in this DLC cycle, and we have yet to see a precedent for a third-party series getting a new fighter via DLC. Lastly, even if we do get another Square Enix character - there is just far too much competetion.

Want: 0%
I haven't played his game, but from what I've seen, he doesn't look too terribly interesting. Hard pass.

Predicting 2B to get around 18.33%.

Nominating Concept: Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

 

[BowserKing]

Don't they reveal spirit events on Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday? That is totally not like them to reveal this on late Monday, unless there is a direct coming.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

ITS HAPPENING!

Join Super #SmashBrosUltimate director Masahiro Sakurai on 1/16 at 6am PT for a roughly 35 minute video livestream featuring an in-depth look at an upcoming DLC fighter, which he will unveil in the video! pic.twitter.com/aOz0ilAiXU

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) January 14, 2020

 

[Jomosensual]

ITS HAPPENING!

Join Super #SmashBrosUltimate director Masahiro Sakurai on 1/16 at 6am PT for a roughly 35 minute video livestream featuring an in-depth look at an upcoming DLC fighter, which he will unveil in the video! pic.twitter.com/aOz0ilAiXU

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) January 14, 2020

OH ****

 

[Perkilator]

I believe the day is over now?

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sari is probably too busy losing his mind because of the direct.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Should we do predictions next or 2B?

 

[Perkilator]

Should we do predictions next or 2B?

I say 2B, and then predictions tomorrow.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm not Sari or a mod, but I think it would be fine to do 2B since we have been doing 24 hour days.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hold on a bit, we're waiting on something.

 

[Ninjaed]

Sakurai be westside for life!

 

[Sari]

For reasons I can't say yet, Noctis' day will end around tomorrow morning. I know you are all eager to rate something now so I ask that you all hold on for just a bit longer. You'll understand why I'm not ending the day now when tomorrow comes.

 

[NintenRob]

Hold on a bit, we're waiting on something.

For reasons I can't say yet, Noctis' day will end around tomorrow morning. I know you are all eager to rate something now so I ask that you all hold on for just a bit longer. You'll understand why I'm not ending the day now when tomorrow comes.

What are you two hiding? Colour me intrigued

 

[TCT~Phantom]

What are you two hiding? Colour me intrigued

I wanted to find something a bit more sentimental but this works.

So before I go on and start the new day, I just wanna address my absence. Basically starting in November, things got really tough irl for me. My mother struggles with alcoholism, and I told her if she relapsed again I wouldnt be home for Thanksgiving. She relapsed again. However, it was her relapse in December that really hit home. Going to put it in spoilers. Trigger warning just to be sure.

Spoiler

My mom relapsed on the day I was returning from college. I was worried about things and had to pacify things over the phone. My brother is on the spectrum and has PTSD. I wanted to ensure that he did not have a breakdown over this. He called me literally a half dozen times throughout the day to ensure him mom was fine. Around 5 pm I was about to leave and at a McDonalds parking lot sorting this out. He put me on the phone with my mom, clearly drunk. However, it is what happened next that was traumatic for me.

My brother had a PTSD episode due to this. He saw my mom drinking as a threat to his safety and survival. He attacked her while I was on the phone with her. He took an uber (he can't drive) to stay at my aunt's place. I called her and told her the details. She chewed him out in the morning and attacked her too. Since she had to go to the hospital for a broken wrist, the police knew (my state has mandatory reporters at the hospital). He is charged with aggravated assault. I don't know what is going to happen to him. He could plead insanity since he is mentally unwell (my parents have guardianship over him, his diagnoses, multiple evaluations over the years), but legally its a gray area. He could be made an example by the prosecution too. I do not know.

My parents both needed to be set straight by me. I told my dad flat out that I had literally dozens of offers of places to stay in Winter Break, and if he was going to make me feel like crap for staying I would leave. He is terrible with dealing with stress, is sarcastic as heck, either putting me down or making a tense atmosphere. I told my mom to get help. If she is not getting more help and keeps relapsing I am cutting her out of my life. She knows that I would, I did not go home for Thanksgiving. Both of them rely on me to be their therapist, but I do not care. I am sick of putting everything back together. To mediate this whole mess I have missed classes. I have missed homework. I have missed opportunities. I need to live my own life.

I also entered a depressive episode during all of this. On top of the family drama, I lost a friend at school. Don't worry they are fine. But they basically did not want to be friends anymore. Losing a friend that I considered close hurts a lot, and I basically was catatonic on some days. I would go to class, go to work, and then go to bed. It took me weeks to get over that. I hate to sound sour grapes, but tbh they were not a good friend the past couple of months, and that helped me get over it. But my depression did not go away. I fell behind on schoolwork. I got three grades as Incomplete until I turned in my backwork. I basically was a giant mess.

I was planning on coming back a few days later tbh. I wanted to get back to school and then come back to the thread. But the livestream gave me a bit of hope, enough to come back. I am thankful to all the people who have been supportive of me throughout this whole ordeal, who helped me get this far.

I apologize for disappearing. I have to shout out the RTC staff for holding down the fort. I plan on playing a more active role going forward again. I just hope y'all are not to dissappointed in me dissappearing.

With that out of the way, housekeeping stuff and the new day.

We will be doing a rerate schedule. Normally we take from the Chance scores and nominated stuff that seems relevant, but I want you guys to have more imput on this.

Today we are doing predictions for the 1/16 livestream. Predict which character/characters we are going to get. Whoever gets accurate predictions this time (gonna make this harder, ya can only predict up to 5 characters) gets 100 Noms. Without any big leaks I think this is fair. Also, put down who you want to see rerated in lieu of a prediction score for the next rating. For your prediction of the character/characters, please avoid one liners. For your nominations to rerate, I would like reasoning but names is kosher for this.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Not sure if this is gonna double post but I am gonna post my predictions rn.

Dante: Call it a gut hunch but I am guessing Capcom right now. And I think Dante is a solid contender for that role. Yeah I know he was deconfirmed in like April but the Grant Kirkhope stuff made me really question that. I could see it being a NDA and denying it at the time. That tweet stuff also has me colored intrigued. I just have a gut hunch Dante will be FP5.

Doomguy and Geno: Mii costume stuff, thinking these will be in Postpass. I can see Geno coming first as a "bonus" and Doomguy starting Season 2. The mii costume leak just seems very...suspiciously hard to fake. I feel confident in this one.

RERATES
Travis Touchdown
Phoenix Wright
Crash

 

[Jomosensual]

Welcome back Phantom!

Do we need to hit 2 sentences for each predicted character or can we list names? And can we miss a character and still get full noms or does it need to be 100% accurate?

 

[DanganZilla5]

It's good to see you back Phantom. Sorry to hear what you went through and I hope things get better for you.

1/16 Presentation Predictions

Here are my top 5 candidates to be announced tomorrow (or later today, etc. depending on your time zone):

• Doom Slayer
  • Doom is one of the most popular FPS series and is often considered the grandfather of the FPS genre. While Wolfenstein 3D was the first game to hit the nail with the gameplay, Doom was the game that popularized the FPS genre. While Doom and FPS games aren't popular in Japan, Doom is a big series in the West and a FPS rep is overdue at this point. Bethesda has been buddy-buddy recently with Nintendo and has brought most of their recent big games like Doom, Doom Eternal, and Wolfenstein 2 over to the Switch. In fact, Skyrim was one of the first games to be shown off in the Switch's first trailer. It's clear that Bethesda and Nintendo have a very good relationship, and Bethesda has even said that they have talked with Nintendo about Smash.
  • There is a lot of evidence pointing toward Doom Slayer. All his major games have/are coming to the Switch. There is also the CacoMallow leak which has not been disproven yet. And finally, in the picture of the announcement tweet, people have noticed there is brown and dark green surrounding Sakurai, since they must have took that picture of Sakurai while filming the presentation. Who is heavily associated with both brown and green? Doom Slayer
• Geno
  • Geno is cited as one of the most likely characters right now. He has a bunch of things going for him. The two songs which were taken down by Nintendo (the same thing happened with Sans). CacoMallow leak. The Mii costume leak which predicted some Mii costumes like Goemon and Team Rocket Grunt. It has Mallow on it, which supports CacoMallow, and it doesn't have Geno. Finally, he is one of the last long-term requested characters after K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo. His chances are looking greater than ever.
• Arle Nadja
  • Papagenos has made some recent videos highlighting a mountain of evidence building a case for Arle. First, Puyo Puyo being the first Japanese game to appear on the SNES online service. What's strange is that the game originally came to the U.S in the form of Kirby's Avalanche, yet Puyo Puyo was the game picked. It's clear that Sega has been pushing Puyo Puyo in the West. In addition, Arle fits Color Theory which has (funny enough) been correct so far and she fits Daisy Theory (female with orange hair). Finally, there have been pictures that Sakurai has been posting on Twitter and one of them showed a miniature Isabelle behind Marth's back. That looks like a signature picture of Arle with Carbuncle on her back, and Arle's clothes in that picture look very similar to Marth's clothes. Go see Papagenos' recent videos for more info because there is so much info that it's hard to remember everything.
• Dante
  • One of Capcom's most requested and feasible characters. Sure, he's been "deconfirmed", but so was Banjo because NDA is a thing. There was an announcement for three days to look out for DMC information, and the 16th was one of them. Additionally, a fellow DMC voice actor could have possibly leaked Dante, though it's possible it could have been a misunderstanding. And of course the entire DMC trilogy is now (or coming to) Switch.
• Dovahkiin
  • Another Bethesda character. While CacoMallow leak implies Doom Slayer, it's possible that Dragonborn could actually be the playable rep and there could just be Mii costumes from other Bethesda games. It's very well possible, especially since Skyrim did pretty well in Japan. It sold well and was even the first American game to get a perfect 40/40 on Famitsu. Despite Skyrim being 9 years old, it's still being talked about to this day which says a lot. In addition, The Elder Scrolls is a very big series that helped popularized the open-world genre.

Characters I want to see rerated (you read my mind Phantom):
Travis Touchdown
Phoenix Wright
Crash Bandicoot

 

[Nemuresu]

Alright, my five predictions:

Dante: Most speaked of them all. It's a rather glaring coincidence that we're getting DMC3 info in the same day as this new Smash stream, and the timing is just so convenient it's baffling.

Travis: Zippo's statements are kind of dead, but assuming there's still something important about them, then Travis fits the "Bayonetta 2.0" bill as is. Nintendo wanted him back, Strikes Again was temporarily exclusive and currently 3 will be Switch-only.

Arle: It all boils down to this one 4chan post (WARNING: explicit language inside): https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/492388960/#492394075
As much as skeptics love to just call everything a "lucky guess", I believe that it's not that easy to predict things like the hour the post will be made. Calling the showcase "a Direct" isn't really that harmful either. After all, that one leak from E3 2018 said stages would have "Final Destination and Omega forms", so typos or incorrect ways to address aren't impossible.

Heihachi: Don't see him as very likely, but aside from Geno, the Bandai-Namco costumes are the most glaring of all the absent past DLC. I feel like someone will eventually bring them back and Heihachi is one of the best candidates for it.

Leon: I can't help but feel like there's a small chance that the "spirits deconfirm" stigma will be broken tomorrow. Can't see Geno pulling that off simply because I don't find him to be as groundbreaking as any RE character.

As for nominations on what should be re-rated, I only have one concept, well, two actually, but they're more or less the same, those being:

All DLC will be third-party/First-party characters as DLC: I consider them one because they approach the same topic. that being the main trait for all future characters. Back in January last year, the former got the highest rates, while the latter went even further a few months ago. Now though, that topic is kind of shaky, as the recent Astral Chain spirits showed us that these events can appear at any time to shot-down characters, and that was one of the main arguments for the likelihood of first-parties. Perhaps tomorrow will decide the fate of these two concepts (even though I don't count on it), but I want to be optimistic and think there'll be a chance to discuss them one last time.

 

[warpenguin55]

What happens to the current schedule and noms?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I should probably be studying right but heck it

For DLC5
Doomslayer: Not so much due to Mii costume leak but more so Sakurai-outline theory. He still has alot if legs to stand on, Bethesda speaking with Nintendo about Smash, Sakurai calling the grandfather of FPS's, Slayer appealing to a major crowd, etc. Doom is not popular in Japan however so I'm not 100% on him or anybody but that statement Sakurai made in Terry's presentation should probably also apply to his home country.

Hollow Knight: Admittedly, this one doesn't have much ground to stand on and is more of a gut feeling. I really feel like Nintendo would entertain the thought of an Indie character and to me it seems like they're quite fond of HK with how successful it has been lately. Certainly much more popular than the average Nindie. It really comes down to if Sakurai played the game and is big enough of a fan to go through with it. After all, Hollow Knight does have a Japanese release and Sakurai is quite the gamer. Also, big leakers never deconfirmed indies if that means anything.

For post pass as a tease at the end of the presentation:
Geno: Only confident in this one if 5 is Doomslayer and the leaked Mii costumes are real.
Bandana Dee: Because he just has remained that popular, especially in Japan.
Waluigi: Because he'd blow up the internet and greatly increase the hype for post pass.

Rerates:
Bandana Waddle Dee (if not revealed)
Rayman
Chorus Kids

 

[RouffWestie]

My character prediction, because nobody is expecting her, is going to be
Hatsune Miku
She's popular and well-known in both Japan and overseas, and would expand Smash in a way I think Sakurai wants to do. She's an out-there pick, but I think Nintendo would choose her because of how crazy the response to her would be. I'm expecting something akin to Cloud in Smash 4.
For music, I'm predicting she'll actually have a little bit less than Terry came with, maybe off by 5-7 songs.
Mii Costumes will probably be a mix of Vocaloids and returning past costumes.
I dont expect any post-pass info.
Edit: Throwing in Doomguy as a new expected reveal.

 

[Sari]

It's great to have you back TCT~Phantom . I'd like to give a giant thanks to Megadoomer who changed the title of the thread each day during TCT's absence since I don't have mod powers.

----------

Direct predictions

I'm predicting we'll get one of the following characters:

• Arle Nadja
  • There's been a lot of talk recently that it could be her and IIRC the director of the Puyo Puyo series retweeted the Direct announcement. Puyo Puyo has been growing a lot recently so I can see her being a sleeper pick a lot of people may have slept on similar to Terry.
• Dante
  • Another instance of a character getting a bunch of news recently (like a DMC3 Switch announcement tomorrow). His series is massively popular while Dante is one of the frontrunners for another Capcom character. There is also a chance the previous comments said many months back about Dante not being in Smash could have been wrong/misleading.
• Doomguy
  • Maybe it's the brown background on that Direct announcement post but for some reason I think it could actually be him. He's definitely got the history and appreciation from Sakurai (who praised John Carmack in the past) so it could always happen.
• Dovahkiin
  • Bethesda talked to Nintendo about Smash around August of 2018. If they couldn't get Doomguy in then I can see them going with the main character of one of their all-time biggest games.
• 2B
  • Probably the least likely of all these characters for FP5 since I recall the NieR director saying there wouldn't be NieR content in Smash around the end of 2018. That said though, a part of me thinks she could actually get in since Sakurai has praised NieR: Automata before.

Some other Direct predictions:

• If Arle isn't the character I think she's almost guaranteed as a mii costume tomorrow considering the out of nowhere retweet from the Puyo Puyo director.
• I think we will definitely get a mii costume that makes people go "HOLY CRAP" like the Sans one.
• I don't think we'll get a post-pass character reveal. At best I just see Sakurai explaining how the post-pass content will work.

For characters that I think would be worth rerating:

• Travis Touchdown
• Rex
• Concept: An Assist Trophy becomes a playable character