Dsmash needs perfect timing, and peach can easily just mixup the timing to avoid it.
It can also be walljump tech'd ->punished for free.
I do not think you need perfect timing, good, but not perfect. There is a lot BS set-ups in this game that require decent timing and people pull it off just fine. Getting the proper illusion cancel you want is a 1 frame deal. Falco only has to shove a stick down.
Its more the spacing that's the problem. If you can space it right, then there is a good window of opportunity to space Dsmash. There is like a frame where you might trade and another one or two frames where you can clearly hit peach without being hit. Peach mixing up her spacing or hugging the wall vs not is more of the problem. But, this is something you see all the time also with Marth and Fox/Falco in their UpB. All four can hug the wall or not. So this is not exactly a new situation to deal with.
Except that up-B isn't sweetspotted at all. Maybe I'm not familiar enough with her ledge grab length, but she certainly doesn't have to be pushed inside the wall like that, and I don't think she even has to go that high.
Either way, it looks like facing center stage for dsmash edge guards is actually much safer, but I can't tell because of the collision diamonds. Let me check the hitbox thread.
Hmmm, on his back his tail seems to stick out, but his hand on the ground actually seems to be more of an issue, at least for upwards pointed moves like Peach's or Marth's up-B. I may mess around today and see if I can get edgeguards any easier with one or the other.
I'd have to take another look and pan the camera around. I do not think his hands would be much of an issue. They go out more into the z-axis, so they might be avoided. Its more of his giant beak that seems to get in the way when he squats down on the ground. And Falco likes having his back to the ledge anyway at times. Utilt/Bair. All good options
When I was messing around with the sweetspot height. For example, fast fall for 13 frames, then upB. Fast fall for 14 frames, then UpB, etc. Peach had to raise pretty far above the stage height to actually grab the ledge. Any lower like in the first image I posted and she won't grab it at all.
Tech->Up B
Walljump tech->Bair
Walljump tech->Float ->Uair/nair/fair
Walljump tech->Airdodge->Dsmash (90% sure)
so yeah, not worth it
Like I mentioned before, we are already well familiar with Fox/Falco/Marth and their upB antics on the ledge. In Marth ditto. One marth might upB to the ledge and get hit by the other marth's Fsmash, but they managed to tech the Fsmash. Similar situations with fox and falco upB near the ledge.
Its one thing to actually do it, but still difficult to get the retaliation back afterwards. If a peach is showing themselves capable of routinely punishing your dsmash attempt after hitting them, then you should consider it not worth it.
If your opponent is not good enough to tech and punish, then it is probably well worth it to keep attempting dsmash to punish her UpB attempt.
Yep. Falcos feet stick out for quite a while after the hitbox comes out, thats why the fast options hit him.
I'm decently confident that the others work. You'll be hitting Peach frame 6, and Dsmash lasts for 46 (perfect iasa) frames. Airdodge land lag =10 frames, Dsmash =5 frames which gives you 25 frames for gaining height and to land from the airdodge, which should be possible.
Don't forget the lag of actually teching off the wall first which is 5 frames. You cannot actually start falling from an airdodge for like ~20 frames or so. So, 5 frame tech, ~20 frame airdodge, ~5 frame (max?) to fall, 10 frame landing lag. Oh look, we just ate up about 40 frames or so which gets falco out of his ending lag.
The airdodge option seems more like it resets the situation then giving her lots of time to punish.
tl;dr I think Dsmash might be worth attempting and messing around with it. Get good with it and actually give the options some time before saying, "This will no work".