Overswarm
is laughing at you
- Joined
- May 4, 2005
- Messages
- 21,181
For Omni
For those that missed it, like Omni.Good!
Now we've established that the actual results aren't acceptable to you; you hinge your beliefs of "it's okay" on the outliers present in the belief that either
A) other people can reach their status via skill
or
B) these characters are national contenders above, on, or near Metaknight.
Well, think up more because 1 and 3 are incorrect and 2 is kind of irrelevant.
Looking at 1 and 3, we can say that you're basically saying "these characters are viable", meaning you're focusing on option B listed above. No mention of A yet, so I'll ignore it.
You say they're "proof", but you've yet to back it up.
If you're assuming that these two players winning with their respective characters shows that a victory screen can be shown for non-MK, bravo. I think you're leaning more towards the idea that "these characters can reliably beat Metaknight in such a fashion that they can be chosen as viable characters for the matchup".
1 Meta Knight (179 top8, 126 top4, 72 top2, 75 wins, 452 total) - 4020.7
2 Snake (131 top8, 71 top4, 39 top2, 48 wins, 289 total) - 2024.0
A Rank «Overused» 20.67%
3 Diddy Kong (76 top8, 31 top4, 23 top2, 23 wins, 153 total) - 1325.6
There's the most recent data for these characters. Ouch! Doesn't look good for Diddy and Snake, but there are a lot of regionals in the mix here. MKs 75 wins trumps Snake's 48 and decimates Diddy's 23, but 2nd place doesn't change either! MKs seem to be doing better across the board in tournaments in general, so let's look closer:
That's the results of all tournaments with 100+ players to date. Doesn't look like they're really shining there, either.
MK is clearly doing leagues better than them, so even if MK CAN be realibly beaten by these characters...... it doesn't make them good choices. MK is still the better choice. You can pick MK and ignore the CP system, or pick Snake and Diddy and get destroyed by it. This is just a drop in the bucket, but let's ignore this for now too.
So do Snake and Diddy REALLY do well against MK, or is it just the players?
Ally recently 3-0'd an MK in Canada that got 2nd place... with captain falcon. Swordgard and HolyNightmare were both in attendance if I recall correctly (stop me if I'm wrong) so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Ally is really good. The "outlier" thing exists, believe it or not; if you're just plain good at smash you can beat people even at a disadvantage. This doesn't mean the character is good or has a good matchup; Falcon gets wreeeeecked by MK. Ally is just really good. I've gotten 1st in my pools using random just because I'm better than my opponents. Anyone can attest to this.
Can we simply trust your judgement?
Watch out for poor statements like these indeed! We haven't seen Ice Climbers do well against MK in a long time so I don't even know HOW they got there.
So, no appealing to authority. We're going to have to use data. Watch out Omni, this involves pictures and numbers.
Let's look at Snake first!
Looking at this we see how Snake has done over time at 150+ players events. That means the big important ones!
Snake HAS done fairly well, but as you can see he's not doing nearly as well as MK. Since MK has been doing so well you'd expect to see Snake matching him but this hasn't been the case at all. This means either
A) Snake DOESN'T do that well vs. MK
B) Snake just gets wrecked by other characters consistently and MK doesn't
You can't make a popularity arguement here; Snake is the 2nd most popular character in the game. If you're going to merely say "MK is more popular so he gets more points" in reference to tournaments from the beginning of Brawl to now with 150+ points, you're stretching the argument. When you're arguing it for the 2nd best character in the game, you're just making **** up.
Using your own research, let's see what we've got at the tournaments you selected yourself! I'm not sure how you collected your data since you merely said "nationals" and then listed many tournaments with varying amounts of entrants and OOSers (hell, SNES was pretty much just an EC tournament + Michigan and isn't a national in the slightest), but let's see how many Snakes are busting the top 8!
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9543115&postcount=3570
Let's see... Ally... DSF (secondary Wario, MK).... Ally again and Anti (secondary MK).... Ally.... Ally.... Ally... and then Ally (secondary MK).
Well ****, what makes you think Snake is the right choice against Metaknight?
Out of 6 tournaments:
Number of Snakes: 8
Number of Metaknights: 24
Number of solo Snake mains (players): ZERO [Ally used MK at pound, or else he'd fit in here]
Number of solo Metaknight mains (players): 7 [M2K, Dojo, Judge, Tyrant, Domo, Shadow, Havok]
That's pretty hard to swallow, no?
Maybe if we zoom out and grab more MKs and just put this contest more in Snake's favor?
Well ****. I have here data of the top MKs and who they lost to from October, November, December, and January. That's the 3 months you said were "recent" plus an extra month!
Razer and Ally are the only Snakes to do it! They are the only "multiple" character on here, but I think this would be an argument to say "Snake does best against MK", not "Snake does well".
You're going to need to support this with more data than "But.. but... but Ally!", because we know the following things to be true:
-Ally has been around for quite some time
-No Snake has been able to emulate his progress [while several MKs haev emulated M2k's]
-Ally is really, really good and can beat people with captain falcon that get 2nd at decent tournaments with a strong top 4
This is what you'd call an "outlier". In fact, he's basically the definition of it.
If Snake was viable against MK, people would be busting him out like clockwork. We've seen this occur in melee, and we've seen it in Brawl. When one character rises up, the characters that do best against him also become popular. Snake hasn't done ****.
While I have your attention (I know you don't like to read dem dere wurds much on account of da brain aches): rules specifically made to hinder MK, starting with IDC and ending with rules for planking, scrooging, anti-counterpick rules, the banning of stages deemed "too gay" because of MK, etc., etc., have increased in number has time has gone on.... but MK's rise hasn't decreased. If anything it's gone up. That means they aren't working.
Hey, the monkey!
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-
Okay, let's calm down. It's not like Diddy has had worse placing at MK-infested nationals than Snake by a long shot and we've already seen that Snake doesn't do the trick, right?
Let's just go on and pretend the world is a better place, shall we?
What does Diddy look like from your data?
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9543115&postcount=3570
Number of Diddys: 5
Number of Metaknights: 24
Number of solo Diddy mains (players): 2 [ninjalink appears once, the rest are all ADHD]
Number of solo Metaknight mains (players): 7 [M2K, Dojo, Judge, Tyrant, Domo, Shadow, Havok]
Sorry, I was just so surprised that someone can use these characters as viable characters to pick up for high level play that I turned into a pumpkin and vomitted. As if anyone that isn't out of their ****ing mind wouldn't pick Metaknight with these numbers. This is a competitive game, yo. o_O
So we've basically got one guy. Uno. Singular! Une. That is less than two. We've got 7 solo MK mains and that's not counting the number of people using MK and another character! This does not look good for the monkey.
What about the research Flayl did about recent tournaments with the top MKs and-
oh. Just ADHD there too.
YOU ONLY HAVE STATISTICAL OUTLIERS.
THIS IS NOT A RUN AROUND OR EVASION OF YOUR ARGUMENTS.
THIS IS ME TELLING YOU THAT YOU CAN'T HIDE BEHIND TWO PEOPLE THAT CLEARLY OPERATE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM
They aren't a trend. They're unique.
If we were arguing about bear attacks in the woods and I said "look at how many bear attacks there were! We need to do something about this!" would you SERIOUSLY say "The bears aren't that big of a deal, there are just a lot of them. Plus there's this one guy that kills them with rocks on a consistent basis, and another one kills them with a stick"? You wouldn't because it wouldn't make any **** sense. It'd make sense if OTHER people could do it, but you wouldn't suggest rocks or sticks to people even if they had no other choice. You'd say RUN THE HELL AWAY. Get out of the situation.
In this case, you're saying Snake and Diddy can work well against MK and.... we're not seeing it. We're seeing two PLAYERS do it. This data can not point to this any more clearly. Seriously, it's pretty **** hard. There is no one backing them up and these are the 2nd and 3rd ranked characters in the game. Popularity isn't an issue here. People have picked up Snake in DROVES and we've got nothing. Diddy has been a popular choice for who knows how long and still we have ADHD and ADHD alone.
B) has been disproven for all intents and purposes. While I can never (because it is literally impossible) tell you that the next tournament won't have 8 Snakes in the top 8 or 8 Diddys in the top 8 or anything else, everything we have in the history of Brawl at the highest level of play shows that Snake and Diddy aren't reliable choices.
In other words, you saying Snake or Diddy are good vs. Metaknight is just as silly as me saying Captain Falcon is because Ally won a tournament's grand finals with him. You can't extrapolate data in this fashion and expect your claims to hold any water.
If you want to go collect data, you need to find the highest placing Snake and Diddy mains and look at their results and then think long and hard about whether it is realistic to expect someone to choose Snake or Diddy when comparing their results to that of Metaknight. If you can't realistically expect anyone to pick Snake or Diddy.... argument is done.
I made suer to give very specific data.
Ah, moving outside of the "outlier" range. Technically this is irrelevant since you wouldn't be okay with the results we have if ADHD and Ally weren't there and I've already kinda shown you that you can't look to them to show ANY trend whatsoever....
So unless you're so absent-minded as to think 1st place is the only place that matters and a pair of super players can be used to shield you against what is actually the norm in tournament play, current results, to you, are unacceptable.
If you can look at the information I just showed you and say that SNAKE and DIDDY, not ADHD and Ally, are worthwhile opponents for Metaknight and viable top level contenders, you're a liar or a mule.
Find some data to support your case.
Wow, that's a long list of players!
Wait....
How'd they do at nationals?
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=9543115#post9543115
Compare the list you have there to the "nationals". This doesn't look pretty for you, and it seems like you've just got some wishful thinking going on here.
Do you really think that playing at a local level can REALLY show you what you're trying to say? It seems like you're not so much saying what HAS happened, but trying to say "look at what COULD happen", and if that's the case your argument can never be sated.
Not every region HAS Metaknights of worth in it. Picking out local tournaments and saying "lol MK didn't win" is silly when we've got this:
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=165954
There's your rankings for all tournaments. No cherry picking involved, everything is weighted, and it is consistent and accepted.
This is understandable. If there was a regional with m2K, Judge, Tyrant, Dojo, Shadow, and Havok and no one else good showed up, you can't expect much else other than 6 MKs in the top placements.
However, I've showed you that Ally and ADHD aren't indicative of anything and you've openly stated that without their influence you would not be content with the data.
How can you be okay with the data only when two outliers that show nothing in the way of trends are present, but not when those outliers are absent? It seems incredibly arbitrary; we know that MK can lose games. That's never been an argument. He HAS a defeat screen.
What he DOESN'T have is a character that can consistently beat him. When playing vs. a MK that knows what he's doing, you literally have to outplay the player, and the evidence we have collected shows this. All in all, Metaknight is the best option.... and not by any small margin.
Please add them now.