Before I answer this, I'm going to qualify that as long as it's up to me, Smash Ultimate discussion is allowed in this thread. (With a few caveats)
With no shade intended, the current Ultimate general forum and character forums are places for hype, speculation, and broader audience discussion. If you want a place to discuss the impact that 3f jumpsquats will have on the cast, that place doesn't really exist, so I guess that place is this place.
I've started moderating a little more closely (as alluded to earlier), but Ulti discussion isn't going to be some off-topic trap. As long as you are tying it to Smash 4 competitive discussion (which frankly is hard not to) and not rambling about which C-list early-90s Donkey Kong villain you hope is in the game or reacting to every new screenshot, your posts are welcome here.
If I have to make a more exact list of what is and isn't okay I will, but I don't suspect that will be necessary.
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To continue postponing answering this question by means of narcissism, here is my Smash 5 wishlist. Let's see if santa Sakurai had me on the naughty or nice list this Christmas:
Doesn't look like it.
Maybe? Sort of? Hopefully?
Included! Or almost, or better.
Meta
- Developed by Bandai Namco
- Sakurai was a given, but continuing with the previous team means faster development, more content, and fewer bugs. People are overlooking how significant this news is.
Rules
- First to X KOs mode
- Teams needs this so badly. Teams is the best mode, but 2v1s and 3v1s are boring garbage. I will hold out hope until release day.
- Half damage team attack option
- Accidental team KOs are unreasonably common/punishing in teams at even high level play. (Like if SDs were 10x as common.) It's also a huge turn off to new players. We can keep the gameplay benefits of friendly fire without the excessive severity. (Trivia: The only other eSport with friendly fire is CS:GO, which does something similar to this.)
- A competitively stable stall-proof (King of the Hill) tiebreaker option.
- Alas. I did think there was some hope for a crappy tiebreaker option, like the one the community currently observes, after For Glory did something similar. But although we got an improved Sudden Death (for what that's worth), the tiebreaker itself is unchanged.
- Higher damage in 1-on-1s
- Holy crap, I never thought they'd actually do this one. What would really be neat is if the ratio varied very slightly on a per character basis, for mode-specific balance tilting.
- FIX THE PLAYER NAME INPUT UI!
- Save match settings.
General Mechanics
(Not listing obvious stuff like ledge trumping, limited ledge invincibility, limited jab resets, re-grab disallow window, hitting opponents deals damage and launches them farther, ect.)
- Make rage only apply to knockback growth, not base
- Rage seems to have been changed, but is it fixed?!?
- Allow neutral ground actions ("anything") out of dash start and turnaround.
- I'm both surprised and not that we're actually getting this--a more extreme version that more or less allows anything at any part of a dash. I just wanted to make perfect-pivoting obsolete and improve wide footsies a la wavedashing, and this goes a step farther.
- Techable footstool landing
- Non-techable grounded spikes
- Haven't seen one of these yet, though I did think I saw someone tech a Ganon side-b. (and eat a d-tilt)
- Hitstun reset on ground ricochet
- Not optimistic about this one, but I haven't seen anyone act quickly out of a spike yet, so...
- Normalize jumpsquats
- There was a lot of debate on this very topic in this very thread, in which various people pointed out that jumpsquat speed had a better correlation to tier position than any other single stat--was it worth it? I was very neutral on the topic, seeing the source of imbalance but being cautious about normalizing characters. Over time, I came to see it more and more like Yoshi's inability-to-jump-OoS--a source of character differentiation that did more harm than it was worth. All this said, I'm surprised they would actually do it, especially all the way down to 3f, since that meant they'd HAVE to...
- Add a short-hop button
- Not what I expected but even better and way more logical! Very excited about this.
- Add a forced-neutral shortcut
- This is really esoteric and I never thought they'd actually do this. But I sure would like it!
- Tighten AC windows across the board--most characters should have a good AC SH aerial.
- Jury is out on this one, but landing lag does seem to be reduced for many characters anyway? And for what it's worth, the 2 moves I wanted to have a stricter AC window do!
- Make grab-clashes not resolved by port. (or randomness)
- All Final Smashes to be "skill shots"
- Excellent. It remains to be seen how balanced they are--but this gets rid of both the very worst and very best, so a great start.
Stages
- Keep Omegas
- I was surprised how many people took these for granted, given what an absurd amount of work they are. After all, what everyone ACTUALLY wants is...
- Battlefield Mode
- Randomness/Lethality Toggle
- So, hazards toggle is a more extreme version of this. I want to play sophisticated stages where I can checkmate my opponents into hazards--predictable hazards with a proper reward, not random ones that kill them outright. I'm actually a little sad (though also happy) about the hazards off toggle, since now even fewer people will have the balls to play me on Norfair like a real man.
Character Specifics
Editor's Note: I went back and sorted these by "Reveal Order"; note that I did not include many characters I'm ignorant about but would like to see tweaked, such as Wario and Greninja and Shulk.
- Remove DK and Bowser's u-throw combos.
- I assumed they'd be fine as long as they got dash/pivot and jumpsquat changes--and they actually did!
- No freefall after Giant Punch.
- I though many of these individually were likely, but didn't think they'd change 'em across the board. Nice.
- Redo his character entirely as BotW Link. I mean. Duh.
- I get no points for this incredible prediction.
- Samus charge in air!
- Wow, nailed it. Lucky I forgot to predict any changes to jab though, I'd have missed that one!
- Replace PK Flash/Freeze with... anything else
- Rebalance Jigglypuff aerials.
- I left this vague because there are many things that could work spanning all aerials, including Pound. A faster bair could possibly do the trick single-handedly, we'll see.
- LET ZELDA SHEILD CANCEL PHANTOM CHARGE!
- Holy crap they actually did it. And then some!
- Also give Zelda a working jab.
- Also also no freefall after Din's Fire.
- Finally! Loving the new Zelda.
- Improve Doc's dair.
- Wow, this is NOT what I expected when I said this! I was talking about just doing something significant to Doc's existing dair to make it not as outclassed by Mario's. It is neat the Doc gets a spike though, want to see how it works in his kit.
- Somehow make Falco fun.
- Improve Ganon's Wizkick.
- I've heard it's better. It looks better. Want to see how it interacts with situations for him.
- Let Ganon up-b after side-b.
- So somehow I asked for this specifically instead of no-freefall-side-b, which is the more logical version of the same.
- Replace Ganon d-smash.
- I was half joking, but well, um, they actually did this. I'm actually sad about losing that amazing u-smash though! Neutral on the f-smash swap.
- Somehow make Roy good.
- I'd be lying if I said I was hopeful. He'll probably be better, but meh.
- Restore some true-terror glass-cannon power to G&W.
- Somehow make Dark Pit interesting.
- Literally anything would be nice.
- Remove Ike's SH AC fair, but otherwise reduce his landing lag.
- Nerf Diddy d-tilt a smidge, otherwise leave him alone.
- Do not let Sonic shield-cancel Spin Dash.
- YES! Give him all the other buffs you want, Sonic is fixed!
- Make Gordo Throw frames drastically more favorable.
- I've heard this is the case!
- Widen Wii Fit Trainer option range on Header to allow it to work like Weighted Header.
- I didn't have high hopes for this one.
- Replace Jolt Haymaker with Grounding Blow.
- I'm marking this one, surprisingly, as a Sort Of, since the no-freefall-change accomplishes many of the goals that make Grounding Blow so desirable.
- Give Palutena Super Speed. Please.
- Tbqh she looks like the worst character. (If you put a gun to my head and made me pick one) None of the systematic changes work in her favor, and her specials all still seem mediocre.
- Fix Palutena's tilts.
- They look better but still bad.
- Give Pac-Man something, anything, that can be used on shields well. Grabs, some aerials, whatever--I don't care.
- Did I see a faster grab?!?
- Replace Cannonball Shot with... anything else.
- At least it looks cooler?
- Do something to give Bowser Jr. more neutral mixups.
- Improve DH's recovery in any way.
- Air dodging (and acting???) out of it a la Olimar would be a huge buff.
- Fix DH's uair so people don't fall out of it.
- Give Gunmen > 5% HP, so they can be used reliably as a projectile counter.
- Make Gunmen all fall a consistent distance in air before firing.
- Nerf Cloud nair considerably.
- Do not allow Cloud FH AC dair.
- Nerf LCS.
- Make Limit expire if it is not used.
- Super happy with the Cloud nerfs. Can't believe I got *all* the nerfs I wanted. I approve of the uair changes too. Cloud's up-B buff is a fine compensation for him; I saw way too many new players die to that, expecting it to logically work like Kirby or Ike.
- Make Corrin less about pin, somehow.
- It seems clearly worse, but how much? We'll have to see what the effects of this are. TBQH, I wasn't expecting Corrin back at all, and was already mourning the loss!
- Make Bayo's recovery less safe.
- Haven't seen anything that suggests this.
- Increase FAF on Bayo fair1.
- This seemed to be the case?
- Increase SDI ratios on Bayo ladder moves.
- This doesn't seem to be the case, but SDI in general seemed absent at the Invitational, and Bayo's ladder is obviously going to change in some way before release.
- Change knockback on Bayo u-tilt.
- Oh hey, the angle change on this is really appropriate.
- Nerf Witch Time base slow duration.
- Also good. The move can be buffed in other ways as long as it can't link to KOs until high %s.
Overall, I was floored with how much of my wishlist I got on reveal day. Some stuff I didn't wish for but love:
- Dodge "stale moves" is a new player's wet dream. Very good design!
- Hybrid air dodge is basically "wavebounce neutrals for everyone!" and should help normalize both landing ability and recoveries.
- Fast-switch Pokemon Trainer!!!!!
- Reasonable Monado UI
- New Shield Parry--no more "you were one frame off so I accidentally perfect shielded you gg"
- Stage before Character selection, finally! Why wasn't this on my list???
- I hope new Link works out;; the timings on Bombs needs to be favorable, but it's fine that he can't detonate a held bomb.
- I doubt Yoshi Egg Bounce really helps him, but it's fun.
- Inkling looks like a lot of fun.
- Actually really happy with the "Echo Fighter" branding; hope we can now have a lot of interesting variants (that took like a day to make) without legions of morons complaining about clones.
Balance is looking promising out the gate--we've got major nerfs to the two big problems, and major buffs to everyone in the bottom 50%, with only a few maybes next to Palutena, Jigglypuff, Bowser Jr, and Miis. It looks better than ever to be a heavy, especially if you have good tilts.
For what it's worth, I'm right there with the plurality of the reddit polls: I'm most excited about Pokemon Trainer and currently intend to play him the most. (Based on our very limited information) If the 3-way balance is close enough, PT will be an amazing character for viewers, destined to be a crowd favorite. I actually don't care about fatigue, but it was unnecessary and encouraged stalling if they are unbalanced (like in Brawl), so why not just get rid of it?
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Whew, okay. But you asked about the end result of all of this. I think it depends on 3 unanswered questions:
- Exactly how safe-on-shield do aerials become across the cast, with these landing lag changes?
- How consistently can players (at various skill levels) parry moves, especially the aforementioned single hit spaced aerials?
- What is the timer/mechanism by which dodge scaling resets?
I'm keeping an eye out specifically for great OoS nairs and promising tilts for dashes. But those 3 questions are pre-requisites for really starting to guess the neutral game lay of the land ahead of us.
(And then various things including the new air dodge affects what the advantage/disadvantage states will look like)