Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[Bowserboy3]

In recent Kawaii Kon news:

False 3-0's Dren !

Talk about complete control. False didn't lose a single stock throughout the set.

I'd like to see this set. Is there a video of it up yet?

 

[Yikarur]

Yoshi vs. Marth isn't really a struggle. You just have to play differently.
Thats a general Yoshi struggle. You have to change your playstyle so much, all the time and most people can't do that.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Emblem Lord You're gonna have to explain some things my guy

I'm starting to believe Ryu is top tier, free

Instead of me explaining, you could analyze the match and come to the same conclusion we always do.

Ryu has no free neutral tools and if he slaps you, he probably has the read and you deserved to die.

 

[|RK|]

I have heard something about Doc and Wario having an advantage in Lucario MU. Dunno about the Doc one, but the Wario one makes sense. Lucario is not the fastest character in game which makes him easy target for platform camping. The idea is to camp for full waft and then try to get Lucario to aroubd 60% and fish for the waft confirm. if he fails to get the waft... well he will camp for another waft.

Lucario does have an amazing projectile and good airspeed though. And good height on his jumps. What I see happening in actuality is Wario getting pressured and revealing all of his defensive options for a couple of minutes while being unable to pressure Lucario. Then, that same Wario hoping to fish for a kill later.

Instead of me explaining, you could analyze the match and come to the same conclusion we always do.

Ryu has no free neutral tools and if he slaps you, he probably has the read and you deserved to die.

But top level play is filled with reads all the time. A character that can convert so few reads into a stock sounds like a threat to any character, provided he plays patiently.

 

[HoSmash4]

I think people still read into individual results too much when judging the metagame. Getting reads is mostly down to the player E.G Samsora beats Zack at their locals but a lot of people think Peach struggles vs Bayonetta.

Sorta same idea with Ryu and Mario. If they get in, you feel pain. Its the player who is getting in, not just the character. Although of course having a character who can make those reads necessary to turn the flow of the match in your favour helps a lot.

Being able to look at individual attributes, options that a character has in a matchup is not an easy skill to get right so its easily to fall into a lull of 'top player of char x beat top player of char z so x beats/does well z'

 

[ARISTOS]

My issue is people needing to wait for results in order to declare anything. Is extrapolation not allowed? If the only thing that matters is results, why are we even discussing the meta? There would be no need since the results would always speak for themselves.

Seeing ZeRo's Lucina is believing. Not just against Ally, but what I've seen him do with Lucina against players like ANTi and Nairo on WiFi. ZeRo's Lucina obviously isn't quite up to par with his Diddy yet, but I'll be damned if couldn't wreck havoc in a tournament as a solo Lucina main, and he's obviously only going to get better with her.

No reasonable person should be saying that results are the only thing that matters. Even Das Koopa , who I'm sure is dealing with spreadsheets upon spreadsheets of tournament data, would be saying tournament results are the only important thing to consider. Tournament results are only observations, not evidence, and do not necessarily conclude that X character is better than Y. There are a numerous confounding factors that impact the results we bring in; Koopa's long running tournament results project deals with a majority of them, but some (like players taking breaks/falling out of the game) can't be controlled for.

Theory and results serves as checks to one another, and using them both in a good way can build a far better understanding of the meta than just using one or the other. Focusing on theory, while our vision of the meta can be well constructed and logical, we can still come out to incorrect conclusions. The game may change (the 1.0.7 patch) or factors that we previously thought were less important turned out to have a greater impact. Results put these theories to the test and check to see whether they are useful frameworks to use, or if they are flawed and need to be adjusted.

Similarly, using results singularly can give a misleading snapshot of the meta at the moment and lessens our ability to project further out into the meta. A person only looking at results at the beginning of the game would see as a top 10 character, but most people here could obviously see that the character would fall as people improved their neutral play. Similarly, someone using only results to say Marth is better that Lucina is using very lazy analysis. Theory allows us to better understand the context behind the results we see, so that we can better predict if a character is built for long term success as opposed to simply being a flash in the pan.

I'd lean more heavily into results (esp. projects like Das Koopa's which look at the meta over time, casts a reasonably wide net such as to understand what is happening at multiple play levels), given that a lot of common cited theory is often not good (and sometimes just serving as character hype), but both play an important role in improving on the other and understanding the game.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Lucario does have an amazing projectile and good airspeed though. And good height on his jumps. What I see happening in actuality is Wario getting pressured and revealing all of his defensive options for a couple of minutes while being unable to pressure Lucario. Then, that same Wario hoping to fish for a kill later.



But top level play is filled with reads all the time. A character that can convert so few reads into a stock sounds like a threat to any character, provided he plays patiently.

But did Ryu do that or was it locus just picking a moment to abuse what few amazing traits Ryu has?

And can you say with confidence what top tiers Ryu beats CLEAN? I mean about half a year ago you were trying to convince me that Kirby beat Ryu remember? Who does Ryu beat besides Fox? No debate. Who does Ryu beat and there is no question he beats them? I am of the opinion that he runs even with ALOT of characters. That is top tier to you?

Also threatening = auto top tier?

That's an interesting thought. Untrue, but interesting.

 

[|RK|]

But did Ryu do that or was it locus just picking a moment to abuse what few amazing traits Ryu has?

And can you say with confidence what top tiers Ryu beats CLEAN? I mean about half a year ago you were trying to convince me that Kirby beat Ryu remember? Who does Ryu beat besides Fox? No debate. Who does Ryu beat and there is no question he beats them? I am of the opinion that he runs even with ALOT of characters. That is top tier to you?

Also threatening = auto top tier?

That's an interesting thought. Untrue, but interesting.

I wasn't trying to convince you of that. Asdioh said it was possible that Kirby beat Ryu or it was even. You didn't contest but said it could be even.

In either case, I'm more or less applying the "Sheik & Lucario formula" here. In Sheik's case, she could be the best in the game if she was literally played played perfectly. But humans mess up, and so she's extremely susceptible to being killed early. Lucario is usually on the other side of that - he takes advantage of human error and thus is able to win MUs like Sheik regularly, where he should be beaten.

Ryu may have a lot of even MUs on paper, but it seems clear that he can beat any character because players are only human. That gives him the psychological advantage in MUs that are usually even on paper. In addition to Locus proving that Ryu may not truly have counters in a game where pretty much every other character does, I think he at least has a claim to being top tier.

Your thoughts?

 

[Emblem Lord]

Players are human.

Ryu players are human too though right?

Funny thing is Locus actually played better in that set. How many times did ZeRo jump near the ledge at nair to dair percents. How many times did a bad monkey flip get him hurt or killed?

Mistakes are one thing but poor decisions are something else.

And if you HAVE to rely on people making bad decisions to win then how is that top tier? How goofy does that sound out loud? Actually say it.

Ryu is really good when his opponent goofs up or he has a read.

Now look at Diddy. At character that does not need his opponent to goof at all. He is Diddy. He is a top tier. THAT is what top tier is. A character that IMPOSES their will onto the opponent.

How many neutral interactions did Diddy win cleanly with the same tools mainly monkey flip and fair? How many times did he establish stage control? Yes ZeRo is amazing. Watch the set again and you will come to the conclusion that I did. That for THAT set, it was Locus who was the superior player. He made superior reads. He played smarter when he was put in bad decisions instead of relying purely on a panic move. He also punished mistakes harshly and did not give free stocks the way ZeRo did. Was ZeRo scared? Probably. But that is part of being a champion. Pushing through those emotions. And check this out...mentally Locus appears to be made of tougher stuff. Even when he gets BODIED, he plays the same. Consistently and strongly. Dude always has a smile on his face and clearly loves the game and mistakes do not affect him the way it does many other players. So don't give me that oh players get shook. Locus is clearly an example of what happens when a human attains a greater level of mastery over themselves.

Those are my thoughts.

Ryu top tier but still losing to the same chars since his release?

Kill me.

 

[|RK|]

Players are human.

Ryu players are human too though right?

Funny thing is Locus actually played better in that set. How many times did ZeRo jump near the ledge at nair to dair percents. How many times did a bad monkey flip get him hurt or killed?

Mistakes are one thing but poor decisions are something else.

And if you HAVE to rely on people making bad decisions to win then how is that top tier? How goofy does that sound out loud? Actually say it.

Ryu is really good when his opponent goofs up or he has a read.

Now look at Diddy. At character that does not need his opponent to goof at all. He is Diddy. He is a top tier. THAT is what top tier is. A character that IMPOSES their will onto the opponent.

How many neutral interactions did Diddy win cleanly with the same tools mainly monkey flip and fair? How many times did he establish stage control? Yes ZeRo is amazing. Watch the set again and you will come to the conclusion that I did. That for THAT set, it was Locus who was the superior player. He made superior reads. He played smarter when he was put in bad decisions instead of relying purely on a panic move. He also punished mistakes harshly and did not give free stocks the way ZeRo did. Was ZeRo scared? Probably. But that is part of being a champion. Pushing through those emotions. And check this out...mentally Locus appears to be made of tougher stuff. Even when he gets BODIED, he plays the same. Consistently and strongly. Dude always has a smile on his face and clearly loves the game and mistakes do not affect him the way it does many other players. So don't give me that oh players get shook. Locus is clearly an example of what happens when a human attains a greater level of mastery over themselves.

Those are my thoughts.

Ryu top tier but still losing to the same chars since his release?

Kill me.

The part about Locus's self-mastery is a good point. He mentions that he had to play music for audiences since he was a child, so his tourney nerves don't exist.

That said, that's a good analysis of that set. I imagine many players don't know what percents Ryu's confirms work at. Probably assume that like utilt to Shoryuken, it works for a while.

Still speaking psychologically though - it seems that for most players, Locus is able to impose his will through sheer presence. I know that as a Kirby main, one of my best anti-camping strats is to walk forward into the opponent's zone and cover as much of that zone as possible without committing to anything, making sure to scout out likely escape routes. Obviously, Ryu does that better, and it seems like the character does impose his will on the player even if not the character.

It's one thing Locus has mentioned before - as long as you're patient enough, there's very little Ryu can't handle. What I see, then, is that while Ryu can't force characters to do anything, there aren't many characters that can bully him in neutral without approaching him somehow. And even if they don't have to approach him, his damage output is good enough to get a sizeable lead and force the opponent to fight somehow.

He seems like a character pre-patch Sheik would wreck, but she doesn't exist anymore. IDK - maybe ZeRo will adapt faster to Locus and show us how it's done.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Why are you talking like ZeRo didn't win?

And why are you talking as if it wasn't close due to ZeRo making bad choices?

And why are you talking as if Locus won the tournament?

Why do people get hype every time Ryu ALMOST does something?

Ryu almost beat a contender for the best character in the game used by the strongest player.

EVERYONE!!! QUICK!!! GET SUPER HYPE OVER A CHARACTER THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN TO HAVE NO REAL ADVANTAGE OVER ANY TOP TIER EXCEPT FOX!!!!

......

Cut.

it.

OUT.

In all seriousness, relying on a player's mental block has not worked for any grappler since the 90's. It is not a sustainable play style. It will not consistently win you majors. The same will hold true for Ryu.

We seem to be talking about two different things. You are talking about winning matches.

I am talking about winning international competitions and shaping the metagame.

 

[Poisonous]

Lucario does have an amazing projectile and good airspeed though. And good height on his jumps. What I see happening in actuality is Wario getting pressured and revealing all of his defensive options for a couple of minutes while being unable to pressure Lucario. Then, that same Wario hoping to fish for a kill later.

Hahaha, no. This is the Wario and Lucario MU: Wario bans FD and abuses his mobility and platforms to run after for the first two minutes of the match to get waft. Wario gets Lucario to around 40-50% and waits for a waft confirm or opportunity since Lucario's frame data is trash. Lucario should never have an opportunity to abuse aura in the MU. The MU is pretty free for Wario if played right, 60:40 at minimum.

There's no need to even engage him without waft, and there is very little to nothing that Lucario can do to effectively chase him down. If Lucario needs to recover and Wario has Waft, he's dead due to extremespeed's silly startup. Lucario is susceptible for footstool combos from Wario as well. Arguably Wario's best MU.

 

[Iron Kraken]

I like this post.

Two quick things: Lucario dittos are actually moronic. It is the only time where your opponent legitimately becomes a better character than you when you're doing well.

Second - consulting some Lucario players on Discord, I did get a little bit if insight into why Tsu struggles against some characters. First, Falcon - Tsu's conversions are very good, but he doesn't necessarily optimize them for certain characters. On Falcon, you can actually take him across the stage and put him in an edgeguard situation by repeating uthrow Nair regrab. You'd also do more damage.

As for the grapplers - reverse ASC actually works pretty well as a defensive option since the presence of a hitbox prevents grabs/pivot grabs from working as Lucario approaches. Still learning the rest of those MUs, but figured that was interesting.

No reasonable person should be saying that results are the only thing that matters. Even Das Koopa , who I'm sure is dealing with spreadsheets upon spreadsheets of tournament data, would be saying tournament results are the only important thing to consider. Tournament results are only observations, not evidence, and do not necessarily conclude that X character is better than Y. There are a numerous confounding factors that impact the results we bring in; Koopa's long running tournament results project deals with a majority of them, but some (like players taking breaks/falling out of the game) can't be controlled for.

Theory and results serves as checks to one another, and using them both in a good way can build a far better understanding of the meta than just using one or the other. Focusing on theory, while our vision of the meta can be well constructed and logical, we can still come out to incorrect conclusions. The game may change (the 1.0.7 patch) or factors that we previously thought were less important turned out to have a greater impact. Results put these theories to the test and check to see whether they are useful frameworks to use, or if they are flawed and need to be adjusted.

Similarly, using results singularly can give a misleading snapshot of the meta at the moment and lessens our ability to project further out into the meta. A person only looking at results at the beginning of the game would see as a top 10 character, but most people here could obviously see that the character would fall as people improved their neutral play. Similarly, someone using only results to say Marth is better that Lucina is using very lazy analysis. Theory allows us to better understand the context behind the results we see, so that we can better predict if a character is built for long term success as opposed to simply being a flash in the pan.

I'd lean more heavily into results (esp. projects like Das Koopa's which look at the meta over time, casts a reasonably wide net such as to understand what is happening at multiple play levels), given that a lot of common cited theory is often not good (and sometimes just serving as character hype), but both play an important role in improving on the other and understanding the game.

We all agree that both theory and results matter.

It just seems increasingly obvious to me that Lucina and Marth should be considered to be at least *close* to being equals. Clearly, some of the best players in the game have a competitive preference to play Lucina over Marth. It seems silly to suggest in 2017 that Lucina isn't better for at least some playstyles and/or some matchups. So if someone were to still place Marth and Lucina into entirely separate tiers, in my opinion that shows too much of a reliance on pure results when it comes to making tier lists. It's a simple point.

 

[|RK|]

Why are you talking like ZeRo didn't win?

And why are you talking as if it wasn't close due to ZeRo making bad choices?

And why are you talking as if Locus won the tournament?

Why do people get hype every time Ryu ALMOST does something?

Ryu almost beat a contender for the best character in the game used by the strongest player.

EVERYONE!!! QUICK!!! GET SUPER HYPE OVER A CHARACTER THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN TO HAVE NO REAL ADVANTAGE OVER ANY TOP TIER EXCEPT FOX!!!!

......

Cut.

it.

OUT.

In all seriousness, relying on a player's mental block has not worked for any grappler since the 90's. It is not a sustainable play style. It will not consistently win you majors. The same will hold true for Ryu.

We seem to be talking about two different things. You are talking about winning matches.

I am talking about winning international competitions and shaping the metagame.

This is fair. All that said, I will say this - it does look like at the moment, Ryu's metagame seems to be advancing faster than the strategies to counter it. Maybe we'll see 3-0 ZeRo next time instead of a 3-2, even. *shrug*

Hahaha, no. This is the Wario and Lucario MU: Wario bans FD and abuses his mobility and platforms to run after for the first two minutes of the match to get waft. Wario gets Lucario to around 40-50% and waits for a waft confirm or opportunity since Lucario's frame data is trash. Lucario should never have an opportunity to abuse aura in the MU. The MU is pretty free for Wario if played right, 60:40 at minimum.

There's no need to even engage him without waft, and there is very little to nothing that Lucario can do to effectively chase him down. If Lucario needs to recover and Wario has Waft, he's dead due to extremespeed's silly startup. Lucario is susceptible for footstool combos from Wario as well. Arguably Wario's best MU.

That sounds like a strategy that only accounts for the Lucario player choosing to play your game, yes? What if Lucario just... runs away and throws aura spheres? What if while you're trying to run away, he does the same thing? Except he actually has a good projectile. How do you rack up this damage you want or get him offstage without approaching at some point?

 

[Poisonous]

Not really sure how that helps them? Aura sphere at 0 is absolutely non threatening, Aura Sphere at 50 is also non threatening. Them doing that literally is what Wario wants. I fail to see how that puts a flaw in what I stated. Aura Sphere is amazing, but it requires Lucario to have a decent bit of Aura to be a threat.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

We all agree that both theory and results matter.

It just seems increasingly obvious to me that Lucina and Marth should be considered to be at least *close* to being equals. Clearly, some of the best players in the game have a competitive preference to play Lucina over Marth. It seems silly to suggest in 2017 that Lucina isn't better for at least some playstyles and/or some matchups. So if someone were to still place Marth and Lucina into entirely separate tiers, in my opinion that shows too much of a reliance on pure results when it comes to making tier lists. It's a simple point.

Yeah exactly, problem is that as soon as you imply that Lucina might have some MUs that she's better at than Marth someone always jumps to the conclusion that 'having some MUs that are better than Marth=Lucina is better than Marth' and react accordingly when that isn't remotely what was meant.

 

[FullMoon]

We had a big-ish tournament in Brazil this Saturday so here's the results for Das Koopa

Torneio Koopacabana 4 (67 entrants)

1º AD | Luffy

2º AD | Revoredo

3º BRO | Micro

4º BC | Mimok

5º S6 | Zohup

5º AD | Elias

7º FullMoon

7º BRO | Holy

This tournament had a lot of our best players in it, so maybe that could make up for the low amount of entrants.

Also wow I'm the only one in the Top 8 who's not part of a crew

 

[FamilyTeam]

Yeah exactly, problem is that as soon as you imply that Lucina might have some MUs that she's better at than Marth someone always jumps to the conclusion that 'having some MUs that are better than Marth=Lucina is better than Marth' and react accordingly when that isn't remotely what was meant.

It's almost as if, ironically, the people arguing against her are the ones getting overly defensive now. Huh.
imo: Marth and Lucina's MU chart is identical, really, but depending on the player, you could feel more comfortable going one over the other. I've seen people make pretty valid arguments as to why they use either one of them over the other on matchups like Rosalina, for example.

Also wow I'm the only one in the Top 8 who's not part of a crew

Vem pra BW. A gente te aceita.

 

[|RK|]

Not really sure how that helps them? Aura sphere at 0 is absolutely non threatening, Aura Sphere at 50 is also non threatening. Them doing that literally is what Wario wants. I fail to see how that puts a flaw in what I stated. Aura Sphere is amazing, but it requires Lucario to have a decent bit of Aura to be a threat.

Doesn't need to be threatening, per-se. But it advances the game regardless of the camping. At some point, in order to use Waft or throw Lucario offstage, you'd have to fight him. And once you've stopped camping in order to fight, you've already given away a couple of defensive habits. I can see how camping is great if you already have a sizeable lead, usually by a stock... but other than that?

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

imo: Marth and Lucina's MU chart is identical, really, but depending on the player, you could feel more comfortable going one over the other. I've seen people make pretty valid arguments as to why they use either one of them over the other on matchups like Rosalina, for example.

I don't think they have the exact same match up spread, because they are different characters, but I do think that both match up spreads have a lot of similarities.

Characters I'd say Marth does better against:
Sheik, Fox, Rosalina & Luma, Mewtwo, Villager, Lucina (yes Marth wins), Toon Link, Link, Wario, Jigglypuff.

He generally does better against some of the more threatening top tiers, usually due to killing from neutral or just being better at winning battles of attrition than Lucina is.

Characters I'd say Lucina does better against:
Luigi, Ike, King Dedede.

Luigi is the only one I would personally pick Lucina over Marth for. Ike I wouldn't bother switching and Dedede gets bodied by Cloud. Ike and Dedede aren't exactly common either.

There are no major changes in ration in either lists, differences being only an increase of 5 on a 50/50 scale. The closest thing I would call 'major' is 45:55 Lucina:Sheik while I think Marth:Sheik is 50:50.

Any character not listed I would put as the same ratio for both characters.

 

[Das Koopa]

weekly results

Spoiler: Midwest Mayhem 8: North America Tour (April 8th) (Midwest) (296 Entrants) (Category 3)

1st: TSM | ZeRo ,
2nd: EG | Zinoto
3rd: C9 | Ally
4th: Ned
5th: JJROCKETS
5th: UBCEA | Locus
7th: Samsora
7th: PG | Rich Brown
9th: E2C | Seth
9th: Circa | 6WX
9th: NiTe
9th: YK | JK
13th: SWAG
13th: Nom
13th: GotE | 8BitMan
13th: Mister Eric

Spoiler: The Arena 2017 (April 8th-9th) (Mexico) (189 Entrants) (Category 3)

1st: ECHO FOX | MKLeo ,
2nd: Javi ,
3rd: Wonf ,
4th: Hyuga
5th: Regi Shikimi
5th: Salva
7th: BryanZ
7th: Richy ,
9th: D.POLLO
9th: Rox ,
9th: Richi
9th: QROG
13th: Yura
13th: Reflet
13th: LeSou
13th: Waymas

Spoiler: Who's Your Pappy #7 (April 9th) (Northern California) (111 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: Zenyou
2nd: Legit
3rd: Xzax
4th: Sean
5th: Rude
5th: Lui$
7th: 3xA
7th: DSS

Spoiler: Kawaii Kon 2017 (April 8th-9th) (Hawaii) (131 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: VoiD
2nd: Abadango ,
3rd: Saiki
4th: False ,
5th: Dren
5th: Rush ,
7th: K0rean
7th: WAR

Spoiler: The Fantastic Classic (April 8th) (MD/VA) (81 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: ZD
2nd: WaDi
3rd: Dexter ,
4th: Remzi
5th: Puppeh
5th: Black Yoshi
7th: Promaelia ,
7th: Zephyr

Spoiler: Gwinnett Brawl April (April 8th) (Southeast) (131 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: ScAtt
2nd: HyperKirby
3rd: Fatality
4th: Kodystri
5th: Lord Mix
5th: Tortas FC
7th: Neos
7th: SaltOne

Spoiler: Fight in Baboo Dungeon (April 8th) (East Canada) (52 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: SuperGirlKels
2nd: Sensuell
3rd: Goulmania ,
4th: Stroumbert ,

Spoiler: Northwest Majors IX (April 8th) (Pacific Northwest) (61 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Captain L
2nd: Dekillsage
3rd: Locke
4th: Pow

Spoiler: Undiscovered Realm Comic Con (April 8th) (Tristate) (76 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Dabuz ,
2nd: Mr. E ,
3rd: Dill ,
4th: John Numbers ,

Spoiler: Torneio Koopacabana 4 (April 8th) (Brazil) (67 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Luffy ,
2nd: Revoredo
3rd: Micro ,
4th: Mimok ,

Spoiler: Legacy (April 8th-9th) (Dominican Republic) (78 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Sharpyzard
2nd: Digital Strider
3rd: Stark
4th: Triple A

Spoiler: Nemesis (April 7th) (Kuwait) (32 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Mr. R
2nd: Madara
3rd: SSS
4th: XF0

 

[TDK]

CEO: Dreamland pools are out

E1: VoiD vs Mew2King , Day in third. Given the high chance of M2K dropping, Promaelia or Dandy Penguin could advance.
E2: ZeRo vs DSS , Black Yoshi in third
E3: Marss vs Rideae , Zex in third
E4: Mr. E vs MVD , Saj in third
F1: ANTi vs Dyr , Raito in third
F2: Rich Brown vs Static Manny , Zephyr in third
F3: Salem vs Sharpy , WonderBread in third
F4: Dabuz vs UtopianRay , JJROCKETS in third
G1: Larry Lurr vs Seagull Joe , Cashmere in third
G2: 6WX vs Captain Zack , V115 in third
G3: Nairo vs DOOM! , Player-1 in third
G4: Tweek vs Nicko , 8BitMan in third
H1: ESAM vs NAKAT , Dark Wizzy in third
H2: Fatality vs ZD , Leo Heart in third
H3: Samsora vs DJ Jack , Xzax in third
H4: Mr. R vs ScAtt , Sol in third

 

[Rizen]

Characters I'd say Marth does better against:
Sheik, Fox, Rosalina & Luma, Mewtwo, Villager, Lucina (yes Marth wins), Toon Link, Link, Wario, Jigglypuff.

I agree with this from Link's end.

weekly results

SPOILER="Midwest Mayhem 8: North America Tour (April 8th) (Midwest) (296 Entrants) (Category 3)"]

13th: GotE | 8BitMan
13th: Mister Eric

It's nice to see ROB getting some love. He seems like one of those characters who's pretty good but not great or volatile so he rarely is talked about.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

F3: Salem vs Sharpy

Raw excitement.

At the same time, Sharpy no! You're just a boy.

Prove me wrong Sharpy. You can do it.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

CEO: Dreamland pools are out

E1: VoiD vs Mew2King , Day in third. Given the high chance of M2K dropping, Promaelia or Dandy Penguin could advance.
E2: ZeRo vs DSS , Black Yoshi in third
E3: Marss vs Rideae , Zex in third
E4: Mr. E vs MVD , Saj in third
F1: ANTi vs Dyr , Raito in third
F2: Rich Brown vs Static Manny , Zephyr in third
F3: Salem vs Sharpy , WonderBread in third
F4: Dabuz vs UtopianRay , JJROCKETS in third
G1: Larry Lurr vs Seagull Joe , Cashmere in third
G2: 6WX vs Captain Zack , V115 in third
G3: Nairo vs DOOM! , Player-1 in third
G4: Tweek vs Nicko , 8BitMan in third
F1: ESAM vs NAKAT , Dark Wizzy in third
F2: Fatality vs ZD , Leo Heart in third
F3: Samsora vs DJ Jack , Xzax in third
F4: Mr. R vs ScAtt , Sol in third

Well even if Sharpy falls to Salem. Salem will likely face Dabuz again early in top 48 and get rekt.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

Wait sharpy's in this one? Joy! But he has to go up against Salem first? Boo!

 

[TDK]

I think Sharpy will fight V115 (ZSS) if he loses to Salem.

Poor Sharpy...

 

[ぱみゅ]

Raito could very well beat Dyr in due chance, but then ANTi is another whole level.
Maybe one day the japanese Duckhunts won't get seeded against the top ~5 strongest players.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I think Sharpy will fight V115 (ZSS) if he loses to Salem.

Poor Sharpy...

It was just not meant to be today.

 

[Bowserboy3]

It's almost as if, ironically, the people arguing against her are the ones getting overly defensive now. Huh.
imo: Marth and Lucina's MU chart is identical, really, but depending on the player, you could feel more comfortable going one over the other. I've seen people make pretty valid arguments as to why they use either one of them over the other on matchups like Rosalina, for example.

Characters I'd say Marth does better against:
Sheik, Fox, Rosalina & Luma, Mewtwo, Villager, Lucina (yes Marth wins), Toon Link, Link, Wario, Jigglypuff.

He generally does better against some of the more threatening top tiers, usually due to killing from neutral or just being better at winning battles of attrition than Lucina is.

Characters I'd say Lucina does better against:
Luigi, Ike, King Dedede.

Luigi is the only one I would personally pick Lucina over Marth for. Ike I wouldn't bother switching and Dedede gets bodied by Cloud. Ike and Dedede aren't exactly common either.

These are interesting comments.

I agree that Marth and Lucina's MU spreads are pretty much almost identical; if there are any differences, it would be no more than a "5" difference (55:45 vs a 50:50 for example). I don't think there are any MU's one character has a disadvantage while the other has an even MU, for example. Even then, if there are differences, it may not be enough to shift the MU ratio in the favour of one or the other; Lucina might play the neutral better but Marth might capitalise off of winning neutral better a MU, for example.

I just want to put my opinions on a couple of MU's mentioned too (put in spoilers for those who aren't interested).

Spoiler: Vs Rosalina

I have thought for a while that Lucina is the better pick against Rosalina. I play Rosalina myself as well as Marth (and occasionally Lucina), so I can see both sides of the MU's a bit. For me, Lucina usually has a much easier time dispatching Luma thanks the Parallel Falchion's hitboxes being balanced; for example, while a Marth tipper Fair could knock Luma back far enough to KO him from say, center stage, a sourspot Fair would need to be much closer to the ledge compared to both tipper Fair and a Lucina Fair, the latter of which of course would not be quite as powerful as a tipper Fair, but is still very good and reliable.

However, as of late, and practicing the MU with friends, I have noticed that when Luma is gone, Marth is still more threatening to fight due to his ability to confirm into easy tippers thanks to Rosalina's frame and light weight (Jab to tipper moves, Dancing Blade tippers linking more reliably etc), so I do think this MU is again more up to preference.

Though I saw a set this morning, Pugwest vs a really solid Rosalina player. Pugwest won game 1 as Marth, and then switched to Lucina for game 2. However, he lost this game; he just wasn't able to capitalise when Rosalina is in disadvantage as well, such as being unable to KO her until well past 130%. Pugwest then switched back to Marth and managed to scrape through (in a side note what was a really hype match). The last game wasn't really indicative of the MU, but the first two kind of shunned my idea that Lucina would do better against Rosalina. I'm honestly not sure any more, and am honestly more inclined to believe it's even for both, but they each do one thing better than the other and it's up to the player to decide which they prefer.

Here is the set I was talking about by the way; the last game is really fun to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwl65zQlep0

Spoiler: Vs Sheik and Fox

These are two MU's a absolutely believe Marth has the bigger "selling points" over Lucina. Sheik is far too safe, so landing that randy Fsmash from Lucina is rare anyway because you rarely punish Sheik from a mistake. So, for Marth to KO easily off of spacing and playing the neutral is a big deal in this MU; a moderate rage powered Fair can KO Sheik as low as 80%. She effectively get's "Smash 4'd" by Marth easier than against Lucina.

Fox is relatively similar, but the Leo Blade is most effective on Fox, so much so that it's almost guaranteed.

Effectively, these two characters being light and fast fallers makes Marth's confirms into tipper moves super easy and very reliable.

Spoiler: Vs Dedede and Luigi

These are MU's that I feel Lucina has the better "selling points" in.

I feel Lucina absolutely has the advantage against Dedede for a few simple reasons. To start, you don't edge guard Dedede due to his combination of recovery tools. This means you'll likely be KO'ing him in the more traditional ways. However, Dedede does not get KO'd from a sourspot move, at all. To KO Dedede as Marth, you HAVE to land a tipper. Failing to do so will just add more rage to the king, making life for Marth harder. For Lucina however, she can KO him arguably easier because of how her hitboxes work. KO'ing Dedede off the top is a struggle due to his weight and fall speed, but Lucina's Usmash is still very good at doing so due to it's solid BKB and KBG compared to any of Marth's upwards KO moves.

Against Luigi, while I am not sure I would absolutely pick Lucina over Marth, I will mention that Lucina's overall spacing against Luigi is often safer due to a combination of her shield stun and Luigi's low traction.

For reference, Lucina's hitboxes have almost as much shield stun as Marth's tipper moves (the things that make Marth's tipper moves safer are the increased damage causing a tiny bit more stun and push back, making them around 3-ish frames safer before considering the minor pushback). Marth's sourspot moves do much less shield stun and push back than his tippered moves. In most MU's, this wouldn't really make a difference, as most moves not spaced at the tip from both Marth and Lucina are still unsafe and can be punished.

However, against Luigi, because his traction is so low/bad, this means when he shields, he slides backwards on shielding a move. This actually makes a fair few of Lucina's moves safer on shield up close (while they may not be totally safe, you may avoid a hard punish. Eg: a Marth sourspot Fair on Luigi's shield could be a Fsmash punish for him, but the same for Lucina, Luigi would only be able to get a Fair. Far less threatening in general.

As always, Marth's ability to KO from playing the neutral game or the potential of KO'ing as early as 40% is always a thing, but Lucina play the neutral game on average better than Marth in this MU. It's quite similar to their Rosalina MU in a sense(in that Lucina arguably plays the neutral better, only Marth's advantages are much more prominent in the Rosalina MU, and Lucina's are advantages are more prominent here).

Spoiler: Misc Comments

As mentioned in one of your posts, is worth pointing out again that Marth does "better" or "wins" against more top tiers than Lucina does; it's all well and good Lucina doing well against Dedede, but he isn't very common. As with anything with the pair, they are extremely similar, and it's all up to player preference.

In other news, something I saw today; this is a thing I suppose...: https://youtu.be/GhTToWLTAqY?t=76

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

These are interesting comments.

I agree that Marth and Lucina's MU spreads are pretty much almost identical; if there are any differences, it would be no more than a "5" difference (55:45 vs a 50:50 for example). I don't think there are any MU's one character has a disadvantage while the other has an even MU, for example. Even then, if there are differences, it may not be enough to shift the MU ratio in the favour of one or the other; Lucina might play the neutral better but Marth might capitalise off of winning neutral better a MU, for example.

I just want to put my opinions on a couple of MU's mentioned too (put in spoilers for those who aren't interested).

Spoiler: Vs Rosalina

I have thought for a while that Lucina is the better pick against Rosalina. I play Rosalina myself as well as Marth (and occasionally Lucina), so I can see both sides of the MU's a bit. For me, Lucina usually has a much easier time dispatching Luma thanks the Parallel Falchion's hitboxes being balanced; for example, while a Marth tipper Fair could knock Luma back far enough to KO him from say, center stage, a sourspot Fair would need to be much closer to the ledge compared to both tipper Fair and a Lucina Fair, the latter of which of course would not be quite as powerful as a tipper Fair, but is still very good and reliable.

However, as of late, and practicing the MU with friends, I have noticed that when Luma is gone, Marth is still more threatening to fight due to his ability to confirm into easy tippers thanks to Rosalina's frame and light weight (Jab to tipper moves, Dancing Blade tippers linking more reliably etc), so I do think this MU is again more up to preference.

Though I saw a set this morning, Pugwest vs a really solid Rosalina player. Pugwest won game 1 as Marth, and then switched to Lucina for game 2. However, he lost this game; he just wasn't able to capitalise when Rosalina is in disadvantage as well, such as being unable to KO her until well past 130%. Pugwest then switched back to Marth and managed to scrape through (in a side note what was a really hype match). The last game wasn't really indicative of the MU, but the first two kind of shunned my idea that Lucina would do better against Rosalina. I'm honestly not sure any more, and am honestly more inclined to believe it's even for both, but they each do one thing better than the other and it's up to the player to decide which they prefer.

Here is the set I was talking about by the way; the last game is really fun to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwl65zQlep0

Spoiler: Vs Sheik and Fox

These are two MU's a absolutely believe Marth has the bigger "selling points" over Lucina. Sheik is far too safe, so landing that randy Fsmash from Lucina is rare anyway because you rarely punish Sheik from a mistake. So, for Marth to KO easily off of spacing and playing the neutral is a big deal in this MU; a moderate rage powered Fair can KO Sheik as low as 80%. She effectively get's "Smash 4'd" by Marth easier than against Lucina.

Fox is relatively similar, but the Leo Blade is most effective on Fox, so much so that it's almost guaranteed.

Effectively, these two characters being light and fast fallers makes Marth's confirms into tipper moves super easy and very reliable.

Spoiler: Vs Dedede and Luigi

These are MU's that I feel Lucina has the better "selling points" in.

I feel Lucina absolutely has the advantage against Dedede for a few simple reasons. To start, you don't edge guard Dedede due to his combination of recovery tools. This means you'll likely be KO'ing him in the more traditional ways. However, Dedede does not get KO'd from a sourspot move, at all. To KO Dedede as Marth, you HAVE to land a tipper. Failing to do so will just add more rage to the king, making life for Marth harder. For Lucina however, she can KO him arguably easier because of how her hitboxes work. KO'ing Dedede off the top is a struggle due to his weight and fall speed, but Lucina's Usmash is still very good at doing so due to it's solid BKB and KBG compared to any of Marth's upwards KO moves.

Against Luigi, while I am not sure I would absolutely pick Lucina over Marth, I will mention that Lucina's overall spacing against Luigi is often safer due to a combination of her shield stun and Luigi's low traction.

For reference, Lucina's hitboxes have almost as much shield stun as Marth's tipper moves (the things that make Marth's tipper moves safer are the increased damage causing a tiny bit more stun and push back, making them around 3-ish frames safer before considering the minor pushback). Marth's sourspot moves do much less shield stun and push back than his tippered moves. In most MU's, this wouldn't really make a difference, as most moves not spaced at the tip from both Marth and Lucina are still unsafe and can be punished.

However, against Luigi, because his traction is so low/bad, this means when he shields, he slides backwards on shielding a move. This actually makes a fair few of Lucina's moves safer on shield up close (while they may not be totally safe, you may avoid a hard punish. Eg: a Marth sourspot Fair on Luigi's shield could be a Fsmash punish for him, but the same for Lucina, Luigi would only be able to get a Fair. Far less threatening in general.

As always, Marth's ability to KO from playing the neutral game or the potential of KO'ing as early as 40% is always a thing, but Lucina play the neutral game on average better than Marth in this MU. It's quite similar to their Rosalina MU in a sense(in that Lucina arguably plays the neutral better, only Marth's advantages are much more prominent in the Rosalina MU, and Lucina's are advantages are more prominent here).

Spoiler: Misc Comments

As mentioned in one of your posts, is worth pointing out again that Marth does "better" or "wins" against more top tiers than Lucina does; it's all well and good Lucina doing well against Dedede, but he isn't very common. As with anything with the pair, they are extremely similar, and it's all up to player preference.

In other news, something I saw today; this is a thing I suppose...: https://youtu.be/GhTToWLTAqY?t=76

Sheik and Fox are the only characters I feel that Lucina loses to that Marth does not (both even for Marth imo), but as we both said it would only be a +/- 5 difference. The reasons you listed for each character are the same as mine, but with more emphasis on Marth over Lucina vs Rosalina. I likely wouldn't switch from Marth to Lucina against Luigi either unless I was really having troubles keeping Luigi out when he shields.

 

[MistressRemilia]

Raito could very well beat Dyr in due chance, but then ANTi is another whole level.
Maybe one day the japanese Duckhunts won't get seeded against the top ~5 strongest players.

Considering the fact that AnTi hasn't been looking so clean lately, the fact that Raito's last tournament was quite good for him, and also that You3 was so close to beating MKLeo ( & Brood's win over ZeRo ofc ) , i wouldn't lose faith so quickly.
Definitly an upset if Raito happens to be out in winners tho.

 

[Floor]

I don't think they have the exact same match up spread, because they are different characters, but I do think that both match up spreads have a lot of similarities.

Characters I'd say Marth does better against:
Sheik, Fox, Rosalina & Luma, Mewtwo, Villager, Lucina (yes Marth wins), Toon Link, Link, Wario, Jigglypuff.

He generally does better against some of the more threatening top tiers, usually due to killing from neutral or just being better at winning battles of attrition than Lucina is.

Characters I'd say Lucina does better against:
Luigi, Ike, King Dedede.

Luigi is the only one I would personally pick Lucina over Marth for. Ike I wouldn't bother switching and Dedede gets bodied by Cloud. Ike and Dedede aren't exactly common either.

There are no major changes in ration in either lists, differences being only an increase of 5 on a 50/50 scale. The closest thing I would call 'major' is 45:55 Lucina:Sheik while I think Marth:Sheik is 50:50.

Any character not listed I would put as the same ratio for both characters.

Woooow okay.

First, even a difference of 5 is too high. I would say 3 on a magical 50/50 scale is only applicable to Bowser (marth > Lucina) and Sonic (Lucina > Marth)

I actually think Lucina has a + 1/50 with most of those top tiers. Opinions of course vary but I've seen groups of people, many credible, that Lucina is better for (not saying i agree with all of them but i agree with most). Meanwhile Marth might have a + 1/50 edge for maybe half the characters not listed. I can't see how anyone would disagree that Lucina is more well suited for Sonic.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Spoiler: "Kawaii Kon 2017 (April 8th-9th) (Hawaii) (131 Entrants) (Category 2)"

5th: Dren:

Spoiler: Midwest Mayhem 8: North America Tour (April 8th) (Midwest) (296 Entrants) (Category 3)"

9th: E2C | Seth:

So happy...

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

Opinions of course vary but I've seen groups of people, many credible, that Lucina is better for

Forgive me here but, lol no.

The tipper means a lot vs Fox and Sheik, and as Bowserboy3 pointed out, Leo Blade is important against Fox and janking Sheik out is also important, and Lucina can't do that as well. Falcon doesn't really have problems with either one of them, and Cloud and Little Mac don't care about one over the other either. Tipper also means a lot when you've gotten rid of Luma and you're continuing to pressure Rosa afterwards. I'd also take better damage from throw conversions over a consistent hit box any day against Bayonetta. Diddy Kong I'd leave entirely up to player preference.

If these people are credible, can you name them or cite them please? I'd be interested in reading their thoughts.

 

[Floor]

Forgive me here but, lol no.

The tipper means a lot vs Fox and Sheik, and as Bowserboy3 pointed out, Leo Blade is important against Fox and janking Sheik out is also important, and Lucina can't do that as well. Falcon doesn't really have problems with either one of them, and Cloud and Little Mac don't care about one over the other either. Tipper also means a lot when you've gotten rid of Luma and you're continuing to pressure Rosa afterwards. I'd also take better damage from throw conversions over a consistent hit box any day against Bayonetta. Diddy Kong I'd leave entirely up to player preference.

If these people are credible, can you name them or cite them please? I'd be interested in reading their thoughts.

The Marcina Discord (which I am active in) has pretty wide agreement on a few of those. Mr. E said something about Lucina doing better against Diddy even before he used her in tournament as often as he does now. I think I remember hearing that from commentary from some match; way too many to sit through and watch to provide a link

Spoiler: Pugwest Tweet

Above is a tweet Pugwest sent where he has Bayo and Cloud listed as "Lucina better".

Now I know how cringey it will be to quote the SSB4 Wiki, but let me do so anyway. They said "she does possess some advantages that allow her to fare better in certain matchups than Marth does, such as Pikachu and Captain Falcon" Take that for what it is. I've spoken with PR'd players (top 3 in state, mainly) who agreed on Lucina doing better against Sheik. I asked one of them this in person, so pardon the absence of photographic proof. I'll leave him unamed unless you really want to know and I'll name him through DMs. The Marcina discord will confirm that some players consider the previously mentioned characters are doing worse against Lucina than they will Marth, to some small extent.

Also, I'd like to restate that I don't necessarily agree with all of them. I won't name how many I agree with but I assure you it isn't all of them. Just that these are a few of the characters that some people, some of whom are credible, weigh in that Lucina may just shine more.

 

[Jaguar360]

I think Sharpy will fight V115 (ZSS) if he loses to Salem.

Poor Sharpy...

Sharpy does have a pretty good record against Stark though, who I think is 3rd in the Dominican Republic on the current PR right above Sharpy. He could be able to take advantage of V115's own lack of Charizard experience. That is quite a rough pool though.

 

[Nemesis561]

Doesn't need to be threatening, per-se. But it advances the game regardless of the camping. At some point, in order to use Waft or throw Lucario offstage, you'd have to fight him. And once you've stopped camping in order to fight, you've already given away a couple of defensive habits. I can see how camping is great if you already have a sizeable lead, usually by a stock... but other than that?

Not sure what you're not getting here. What poison is saying is Wario has the ability to weave in and out of Lucarios moves especially with the aid of platforms (assuming FD is banned like he mentioned) and not engage Lucario, plain and simple. Lucarios aura sphere with no rage is not much of a threat in this scenario, wario is too elusive in the air and is not going to be forced to fight.

So then (in theory) wario simply does not fight until waft is on Deck, and his win condition becomes to begin the fight at that moment and kill Lucario at lower percents through a setup. Obviously it's just theory craft but it's a sound strategy and one I have employed successfully as wario

Obviously you are not going to go unscathed while you are camping for waft but it's well worth it, as trying to fight Lucario straight up from the beginning is very unoptimal since regardless, you need to be ending his stocks early with waft or it's going to be a blood bath

 

[RonNewcomb]

These are interesting comments.

I agree that Marth and Lucina's MU spreads are pretty much almost identical; if there are any differences, it would be no more than a "5" difference (55:45 vs a 50:50 for example). I don't think there are any MU's one character has a disadvantage while the other has an even MU, for example. Even then, if there are differences, it may not be enough to shift the MU ratio in the favour of one or the other; Lucina might play the neutral better but Marth might capitalise off of winning neutral better a MU, for example.

I just want to put my opinions on a couple of MU's mentioned too (put in spoilers for those who aren't interested).

Spoiler: Vs Rosalina

I have thought for a while that Lucina is the better pick against Rosalina. I play Rosalina myself as well as Marth (and occasionally Lucina), so I can see both sides of the MU's a bit. For me, Lucina usually has a much easier time dispatching Luma thanks the Parallel Falchion's hitboxes being balanced; for example, while a Marth tipper Fair could knock Luma back far enough to KO him from say, center stage, a sourspot Fair would need to be much closer to the ledge compared to both tipper Fair and a Lucina Fair, the latter of which of course would not be quite as powerful as a tipper Fair, but is still very good and reliable.

However, as of late, and practicing the MU with friends, I have noticed that when Luma is gone, Marth is still more threatening to fight due to his ability to confirm into easy tippers thanks to Rosalina's frame and light weight (Jab to tipper moves, Dancing Blade tippers linking more reliably etc), so I do think this MU is again more up to preference.

Though I saw a set this morning, Pugwest vs a really solid Rosalina player. Pugwest won game 1 as Marth, and then switched to Lucina for game 2. However, he lost this game; he just wasn't able to capitalise when Rosalina is in disadvantage as well, such as being unable to KO her until well past 130%. Pugwest then switched back to Marth and managed to scrape through (in a side note what was a really hype match). The last game wasn't really indicative of the MU, but the first two kind of shunned my idea that Lucina would do better against Rosalina. I'm honestly not sure any more, and am honestly more inclined to believe it's even for both, but they each do one thing better than the other and it's up to the player to decide which they prefer.

Here is the set I was talking about by the way; the last game is really fun to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwl65zQlep0

Spoiler: Vs Sheik and Fox

These are two MU's a absolutely believe Marth has the bigger "selling points" over Lucina. Sheik is far too safe, so landing that randy Fsmash from Lucina is rare anyway because you rarely punish Sheik from a mistake. So, for Marth to KO easily off of spacing and playing the neutral is a big deal in this MU; a moderate rage powered Fair can KO Sheik as low as 80%. She effectively get's "Smash 4'd" by Marth easier than against Lucina.

Fox is relatively similar, but the Leo Blade is most effective on Fox, so much so that it's almost guaranteed.

Effectively, these two characters being light and fast fallers makes Marth's confirms into tipper moves super easy and very reliable.

Spoiler: Vs Dedede and Luigi

These are MU's that I feel Lucina has the better "selling points" in.

I feel Lucina absolutely has the advantage against Dedede for a few simple reasons. To start, you don't edge guard Dedede due to his combination of recovery tools. This means you'll likely be KO'ing him in the more traditional ways. However, Dedede does not get KO'd from a sourspot move, at all. To KO Dedede as Marth, you HAVE to land a tipper. Failing to do so will just add more rage to the king, making life for Marth harder. For Lucina however, she can KO him arguably easier because of how her hitboxes work. KO'ing Dedede off the top is a struggle due to his weight and fall speed, but Lucina's Usmash is still very good at doing so due to it's solid BKB and KBG compared to any of Marth's upwards KO moves.

Against Luigi, while I am not sure I would absolutely pick Lucina over Marth, I will mention that Lucina's overall spacing against Luigi is often safer due to a combination of her shield stun and Luigi's low traction.

For reference, Lucina's hitboxes have almost as much shield stun as Marth's tipper moves (the things that make Marth's tipper moves safer are the increased damage causing a tiny bit more stun and push back, making them around 3-ish frames safer before considering the minor pushback). Marth's sourspot moves do much less shield stun and push back than his tippered moves. In most MU's, this wouldn't really make a difference, as most moves not spaced at the tip from both Marth and Lucina are still unsafe and can be punished.

However, against Luigi, because his traction is so low/bad, this means when he shields, he slides backwards on shielding a move. This actually makes a fair few of Lucina's moves safer on shield up close (while they may not be totally safe, you may avoid a hard punish. Eg: a Marth sourspot Fair on Luigi's shield could be a Fsmash punish for him, but the same for Lucina, Luigi would only be able to get a Fair. Far less threatening in general.

As always, Marth's ability to KO from playing the neutral game or the potential of KO'ing as early as 40% is always a thing, but Lucina play the neutral game on average better than Marth in this MU. It's quite similar to their Rosalina MU in a sense(in that Lucina arguably plays the neutral better, only Marth's advantages are much more prominent in the Rosalina MU, and Lucina's are advantages are more prominent here).

Spoiler: Misc Comments

As mentioned in one of your posts, is worth pointing out again that Marth does "better" or "wins" against more top tiers than Lucina does; it's all well and good Lucina doing well against Dedede, but he isn't very common. As with anything with the pair, they are extremely similar, and it's all up to player preference.

In other news, something I saw today; this is a thing I suppose...: https://youtu.be/GhTToWLTAqY?t=76

This is one of the better Marcina posts I've read.

I'd also echo Rizen's remark that Link would much rather fight Lucy over Marth. Falchion's a bit longer than the Hyrulian Master Sword, so if you're not playing at tipper range, Link can trade hits with you. Less important but still a thing: Marcina's great air control vs Link's poor groundspeed means tippering his shield is something approaching semi-consistent, which is important for then dodging his followup shieldgrab. That shieldgrab is Link's moneymaker vs Marcina.

 

[FeelMeUp]

Lucina is absolutely not anywhere near as threatening as Marth in the Sheik mu. The ungodly amounts of safe cheese Marth can pull out in that matchup is disgusting.
Lucina has nothing on that level.