Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[Iron Kraken]

Well, yeah of course people bring up tippers. What differences do Marth and Lucina have besides tippers? Marth's a pixel taller?

I'm saying this as a Link "fangrill", you do sound like fangrills. ZeRo, the number 1 player in the world, seconds Lucina with Diddy and wins a 296 person tournament, beating a top Mario with her. Is it new that Marcina have a good MU vs Mario? I'm not trying to downplay Lucina's win but other characters worse than her have better wins solo, like T in civil War with Link, CF too. I mean it's fun to point out victories but MKLeo's won a major with Marth and Lucina's overall results are considerably lower than Marth's.
1EE: CURRENT SCORES (UPDATED MARCH 21st)

Cloud: 362.5
Diddy Kong: 349
Bayonetta: 335.5
Sheik: 266.5
Sonic: 192.5
Fox: 183.5
Mario: 179
Rosalina & Luma: 151
Marth: 139.5
Zero Suit Samus: 137
Mewtwo: 131.5
Ryu: 116.5
Meta Knight: 111
Captain Falcon: 92.5
Peach: 82.5
Luigi: 77
Corrin: 75
Villager: 73.5
Greninja: 71
Ness: 63
Lucario: 63
Toon Link: 61.5
Olimar: 60.5
Mega Man: 58
Donkey Kong: 57.5
Pikachu: 54.5
Duck Hunt: 50
R.O.B.: 46
Bowser: 40
Pit: 38
Shulk: 36
Lucina: 34.5
Mr. Game & Watch: 33
Robin: 30
Lucas: 23
Samus: 23
Link: 21
Ike: 20.5
Yoshi: 20.5
Wii Fit Trainer: 16.5
Wario: 14
Roy: 14
Little Mac: 12.5
Charizard: 12
Falco: 11.5
Pac-Man: 11
Palutena: 7.5
Kirby: 2
Zelda: 2
King Dedede: 1
Ganondorf: 1

Link's are too; that's why I'm trying not to jump the gun and places too much weight on one result. Link in Civil War does not make him top tier or even high tier, imo. Not with MK, Falcon Luigi, etc outperforming him. Saying "Now Lucina has results" isn't enough to place her anywhere near Marth.

I'm not saying results alone make the character, that's dumb. Lucina is close to Marth the same way Pit and Dark Pit are close even though the latter has worse results.

My point is, don't have a big knee jerk reaction. If people say Lucina's bottom tier or whatever that's not reflected on the tier list and people say dumb things all the time. This result is good but not game changing.

You have ZeRo, MKLeo, Nairo, and Mr. E all either showing a personal preference for Lucina over Marth or claiming that Lucina is just as good as Marth. I think it's fair to say that some weight should be given to what the best Marcina players actually have to say about it.

If anything, ZeRo showing that his fledgling Lucina can beat someone like Ally in tournament shows just how flawed the logic is of relying on results as the be all, end all for determining how good a character is. There's obviously a strong correlation between the best characters in the game and having the best results, but results are also determined by who the best players decide to use. In a case like Marth vs Lucina, perception can become reality - Marth is perceived as being strictly better than Lucina, therefore more competitive players opted for using Marth instead of Lucina. So if you go strictly by results, you would be left with the impression that there is a massive gap between Marth and Lucina in the tier list. But as the top Marcina players would tell you themselves, it's ridiculous to act as if Marth and Lucina are separated by an entire tier or tiers. Results are not *everything*. Sometimes you actually have to consider a character by their attributes, and realize that some pretty good characters may be lagging in results simply because not a lot of the top players have decided to pick up the character.

 

[ElectricBlade]

I'm excited to see all of the backpedaling with Lucina now that ZeRo uses her.

Once the match is uploaded I may write an analysis on it. I missed this match so I'm very curious on it.

 

[Iron Kraken]

I'm excited to see all of the backpedaling with Lucina now that ZeRo uses her.

Once the match is uploaded I may write an analysis on it. I missed this match so I'm very curious on it.

You can get an extended look at PersistentBlade's Lucina here (WiFi games mostly against ANTi with a few against Nairo):

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/133536117 (Lucina games start at 28:42)

 

[FamilyTeam]

I think people are mistaking us being happy with these results with these results somehow confirming some secret conspiracy of ours that Lucina is better than Marth.
Mr. E and Leo saying that Lucina might be better is a whole different kettle of fish - and even then I don't necessarily agree with it. We just wanted finally someone who used her well and proved all that we were saying.

 

[Frihetsanka]

I'm starting to believe Ryu is top tier, free

If Locus' MU chart is correct then Ryu might be top tier, yeah. It's possible Locus overestimates Ryu though. I'll keep him at the top of high tier for now.

 

[PJB]

All these Lucina placings lately have me thinking about other lesser used characters with potential to shine. Who do you guys think has a shot at becoming a major threat, and why? Note- when I say major threat, I mean a regular contender at the top. I know this is smash 4 and link makes winners finals at super nationals lol

My personal answer- Olimar. A bit of a cop out answer since many already consider him high tier, but I think he could go even further. Super strong neutral, solid matchup spread, Strong killing potential, weak disadvantage. I think the Meta could be shifting to benefit this kind of character, but we'll have to see

 

[FamilyTeam]

All these Lucina placings lately have me thinking about other lesser used characters with potential to shine. Who do you guys think has a shot at becoming a major threat, and why? Note- when I say major threat, I mean a regular contender at the top. I know this is smash 4 and link makes winners finals at super nationals lol

My personal answer- Olimar. A bit of a cop out answer since many already consider him high tier, but I think he could go even further. Super strong neutral, solid matchup spread, Strong killing potential, weak disadvantage. I think the Meta could be shifting to benefit this kind of character, but we'll have to see

To be hoenst, I'd say Roy.
I'm not gonna say I have massive optimistic fate about Roy, but if we see HyperKirby doing good at nationals, I could see him being more respected.

 

[soniczx123]

Super strong neutral, solid matchup spread, Strong killing potential, weak disadvantage. I think the Meta could be shifting to benefit this kind of character, but we'll have to see

I believe Olimar's disadvantage is his weakest aspect and which is why he's not as high up as he could be. Getting in him and staying makes very hard for him to return to neutral as he has a low air speed and no real get-off-me option

 

[NotLiquid]

All these Lucina placings lately have me thinking about other lesser used characters with potential to shine. Who do you guys think has a shot at becoming a major threat, and why? Note- when I say major threat, I mean a regular contender at the top. I know this is smash 4 and link makes winners finals at super nationals lol

My personal answer- Olimar. A bit of a cop out answer since many already consider him high tier, but I think he could go even further. Super strong neutral, solid matchup spread, Strong killing potential, weak disadvantage. I think the Meta could be shifting to benefit this kind of character, but we'll have to see

In terms of "upper tier" characters who are likely to break into Top 8 at relatively consistent rates; Captain Falcon and Peach.

In terms of perceived lower tier characters who might not reach Top 8 but still gets way higher than a large majority of the cast, Samus and Shulk.

 

[TDK]

You know zero could probably win a tournament with any character in the top half of the cast... slow down.

Err... you do realize this includes Greninja, Olimar, and Peach, right?

Also, in Mexico:

Salva 3-0 Hyuga

 

[FamilyTeam]

You people are forgetting Regi just beat Javi 3-0 with against . and that's a big deal imo.

 

[Frihetsanka]

Who do you guys think has a shot at becoming a major threat, and why?

Corrin, if Cosmos starts traveling more and if MKLeo keeps playing her.

 

[Iron Kraken]

All these Lucina placings lately have me thinking about other lesser used characters with potential to shine. Who do you guys think has a shot at becoming a major threat, and why? Note- when I say major threat, I mean a regular contender at the top. I know this is smash 4 and link makes winners finals at super nationals lol

My personal answer- Olimar. A bit of a cop out answer since many already consider him high tier, but I think he could go even further. Super strong neutral, solid matchup spread, Strong killing potential, weak disadvantage. I think the Meta could be shifting to benefit this kind of character, but we'll have to see

are pretty easy picks. They already have players lined up that could bring the characters into prominence.

- Cosmos (when he starts going to tournaments) and possibly Leo
- Tsu
- Shuton

And all three characters are really good on paper. So those three are main ones I'm looking to see possibly climb the tier list.

Looking elsewhere, in general high tiers are of course the first place to look for characters who are not currently at the top but have that kind of potential. I like based on their attributes, even though they haven't made many appearances deep into majors recently. But in general I think pretty much all the current high tier characters have at least some potential to climb the ranks. All these characters have at least one prominent player maining them with the potential to go deep into majors.
As a mid tier candidate, I think Ness still has some potential. The results certainly haven't been there lately, but he still has a lot going for him, and I could see someone like FOW making top 8 appearances at future majors if he really dedicates himself to the game.
As a dark horse candidate, I like Samus , not just because of recent results but because I always thought the character was insanely underrated based on my experience against good ones.
And for an even darker horse candidate, I like , although the odds are still against him. But he has enough weird things going on for him that I can see the potential.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

are pretty easy picks. They already have players lined up that could bring the characters into prominence.

- Cosmos (when he starts going to tournaments) and possibly Leo
- Tsu
- Shuton

And all three characters are really good on paper. So those three are main ones I'm looking to see possibly climb the tier list.

Looking elsewhere, in general high tiers are of course the first place to look for characters who are not currently at the top but have that kind of potential. I like based on their attributes, even though they haven't made many appearances deep into majors recently. But in general I think pretty much all the current high tier characters have at least some potential to climb the ranks. All these characters have at least one prominent player maining them with the potential to go deep into majors.
As a mid tier candidate, I think Ness still has some potential. The results certainly haven't been there lately, but he still has a lot going for him, and I could see someone like FOW making top 8 appearances at future majors if he really dedicates himself to the game.
As a dark horse candidate, I like Samus , not just because of recent results but because I always thought the character was insanely underrated based on my experience against good ones.
And for an even darker horse candidate, I like , although the odds are still against him. But he has enough weird things going on for him that I can see the potential.

Any other mid tiers you'd consider?

 

[Mr. Johan]

Chuck Nasty took MJG to Game 10 GFs in a small MO event with . He would have won the set outright Game 9 had he gotten a Star KO.

Chuck put MJG into Losers in the first place as well in WFs.

So his Zard is still going strong, despite the relative lack of use compared to Bowser recently.

 

[|RK|]

If Locus' MU chart is correct then Ryu might be top tier, yeah. It's possible Locus overestimates Ryu though. I'll keep him at the top of high tier for now.

To be fair, Locus has been wrecking the MUs we consider to be so bad for Ryu. He's taken out Bayonetta players, took the best Diddy in the world to game 5... He's proving his own MU theories. When he gets the chance to prep for Rosa, I'm betting he's going to show us something crazy. And that's the last "really bad" MU left for Ryu.

 

[Rizen]

You have ZeRo, MKLeo, Nairo, and Mr. E all either showing a personal preference for Lucina over Marth or claiming that Lucina is just as good as Marth. I think it's fair to say that some weight should be given to what the best Marcina players actually have to say about it.

I'm not sure what you're talking about but ZeRo said Marth is better than Lucina and Leo and Mr. E use Marth (plus secondaries like Cloud).
Such as:
Austin is Really Feeling it 16 (February 11th) (South) (163 Entrants) (Category 2)
1st: Trela (Ryu)
2nd: MKLeo (Marth)
3rd: Karna (Sheik)
4th: Jerm (Robin, Toon Link)
5th: Javi (Cloud, Sheik)
5th: Lima (Bayonetta)
7th: Megafox (Fox)
7th: Whispy (Diddy Kong)

Lucina seems to be the easier secondary to pick up.

Edit
Frostbite 2017 (February 25th-26th) (Midwest) (342 Entrants) (Category 4)
1st: ZeRo (Diddy Kong, Captain Falcon)
2nd: tsu (Lucario, Ryu)
3rd: Nairo (Zero Suit Samus)
4th: Dabuz (Rosalina & Luma, Olimar)
5th: Salem (Bayonetta)
5th: Shuton (Olimar)
7th: Ally (Mario)
7th: Zinoto (Diddy Kong)
9th: Some (Greninja)
9th: Mr. E (Marth)
9th: VoiD (Sheik)
9th: Kameme (Mega Man, Sheik)
13th: MKLeo (Marth, Cloud)
13th: Deathorse (Mewtwo)
13th: Kirihara (Rosalina & Luma)
13th: WaDi (Mewtwo)
17th: KEN (Sonic)
17th: Captain Zack (Bayonetta)
17th: Abadango (Mewtwo, Meta Knight)
17th: komorikiri (Cloud, Sonic)
17th: Ned (Cloud)
17th: smasher1001 (Mega Man, Mario)
17th: Ryuga (Corrin)
17th: Seagull Joe (Sonic)
25th: Rich Brown (Mewtwo)
25th: MVD (Diddy Kong)
25th: NAKAT (Fox, Lucina)
25th: Myran (Olimar)
25th: Blacktwins (Mario, Cloud)
25th: Black Yoshi (Bayonetta)
25th: Fatality (Captain Falcon)
25th: DarkAura (Greninja)

 

[Heracr055]

^ZSS is another pretty rough MU for Ryu imo because ZSS has excellent tools for dispatching Ryu early (which means he can't abuse rage against her). The uair to Up B ladder is effective as Nairo and Marss demonstrated. Flip Kick is excellent for getting spikes against Ryu thanks to his predictable recovery too. Zair's good for keeping Ryu out as well.

 

[Deleted member]

Any other mid tiers you'd consider?

I'm not Iron Kraken, but I'd put on the list as well. The character has a lot of room to grow and his results have been only getting better and better.

 

[ElectricBlade]

Persistent Blade vs. Ally has been uploaded. Yay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OE6UimMx1vE

 

[NairWizard]

*Mario, the character with losses to Shulk and Samus, loses to Lucina*

"Lucina has results now!"

Yeah, alright guys. Alright.

But it is a nice showing for the character, step in the right direction.

 

[Iron Kraken]

I'm not sure what you're talking about but ZeRo said Marth is better than Lucina and Leo and Mr. E use Marth (plus secondaries like Cloud).
Such as:
Austin is Really Feeling it 16 (February 11th) (South) (163 Entrants) (Category 2)
1st: Trela (Ryu)
2nd: MKLeo (Marth)
3rd: Karna (Sheik)
4th: Jerm (Robin, Toon Link)
5th: Javi (Cloud, Sheik)
5th: Lima (Bayonetta)
7th: Megafox (Fox)
7th: Whispy (Diddy Kong)

Lucina seems to be the easier secondary to pick up.

In an interview after the last KTAR, ZeRo said that MKLeo and Mr. E had both been entertaining the thought that Lucina might be better than Marth.

ZeRo and Nairo have both obviously decided to use Lucina instead of Marth. Mr. E has also been trying Lucina in tournament recently.

All of that was the basis for my comment.

 

[Deleted member]

*Mario, the character with losses to Shulk and Samus, loses to Lucina*

"Lucina has results now!"

Yeah, alright guys. Alright.

But it is a nice showing for the character, step in the right direction.

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply here.
Shulk has been considered to have a decent Mario MU for a while.

 

[Iron Kraken]

*Mario, the character with losses to Shulk and Samus, loses to Lucina*

"Lucina has results now!"

Yeah, alright guys. Alright.

But it is a nice showing for the character, step in the right direction.

My issue is people needing to wait for results in order to declare anything. Is extrapolation not allowed? If the only thing that matters is results, why are we even discussing the meta? There would be no need since the results would always speak for themselves.

Seeing ZeRo's Lucina is believing. Not just against Ally, but what I've seen him do with Lucina against players like ANTi and Nairo on WiFi. ZeRo's Lucina obviously isn't quite up to par with his Diddy yet, but I'll be damned if couldn't wreck havoc in a tournament as a solo Lucina main, and he's obviously only going to get better with her.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply here.
Shulk has been considered to have a decent Mario MU for a while.

Too many characters have decent MUs with him, though.

 

[Laken64]

You people are forgetting Regi just beat Javi 3-0 with against . and that's a big deal imo.

Regi has a positive record against Javi for a while now

 

[RonNewcomb]

Persistent Blade vs. Ally has been uploaded. Yay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OE6UimMx1vE

Why's it "persistent blade" not "consistent blade"?

 

[Nu~]

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply here.
Shulk has been considered to have a decent Mario MU for a while.

He's implying that having an advantage over Mario isn't a huge accomplishment when you're trying to prove a char's worth.

Especially when said char is in an archetype that logically trumps Mario's (swordie > brawler)

 

[NairWizard]

My issue is people needing to wait for results in order to declare anything. Is extrapolation not allowed? If the only thing that matters is results, why are we even discussing the meta? There would be no need since the results would always speak for themselves.

Seeing ZeRo's Lucina is believing. Not just against Ally, but what I've seen him do with Lucina against players like ANTi and Nairo on WiFi. ZeRo's Lucina obviously isn't quite up to par with his Diddy yet, but I'll be damned if couldn't wreck havoc in a tournament as a solo Lucina main, and he's obviously only going to get better with her.

My post wasn't directed at your extrapolation. ZeRo's Lucina is a great showing for the character. People who get defensive about Lucina and the arguments against her placing really have no clue what is actually being argued, or so it seems based on the posts here.

 

[Iron Kraken]

My post wasn't directed at your extrapolation. ZeRo's Lucina is a great showing for the character. People who get defensive about Lucina and the arguments against her placing really have no clue what is actually being argued, or so it seems based on the posts here.

Well, you seem to be saying that one Lucina victory over a Mario doesn't prove all that much. And that may be fair.

I think we are all generally in agreement that Lucina is proving her place in the meta now as more than a worse Marth. She may be a better fit for certain players and/or matchups.

Furthermore, I would argue that it's increasingly silly for anyone to try to place Marth and Lucina into separate tiers.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

In recent Kawaii Kon news:

False 3-0's Dren !

Talk about complete control. False didn't lose a single stock throughout the set.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

In recent Kawaii Kon news:

False 3-0's Dren !

Talk about complete control. False didn't lose a single stock throughout the set.

Well Yoshi struggling vs swordies is also pretty common knowledge so it is not too surprising for me

 

[jet56]

Saiki beats false 3-2
saiki then loses to abadango 3-0 in losers finals
aba has played against only sheik his entire top 8 run lol.

 

[Das Koopa]

i was making a tier list post and started with Lucario ranked in upper tier but then I just sort of made a huge post on him by accident

: I think Lucario has a huge issue with characters like him and characters that can aggressively gimp you. He is a character with a toolkit that's mediocre neutral-side. He will typically run away with a game - more than any other character - if he takes the first stock. However, if he dies in the 90%-100% range, his pressure is erased and it's very likely that physiological momentum for that Lucario player is halted. If players get tilted against the threat of grab = death, utilt + shoryu at 50% vs. Rage Ryu, etc. then it's surefire that you lose confidence as a Lucario if your engine has a hammer taken to it.

With that, he probably would struggle at least vs.:



All of these characters can kill Lucario early with easymode kill confirms that are a key part of their movesets. Heavies get grab confirms, Ryu has Shoryu confirms (and Focus probably stuffs a lot of stray hits Nuclear Apocalypse Bringer Aura Rage Mode Lucario gets) and Falcon just oppresses Lucario with speed/aerials/uair > knee/etc. ZSS is good at gimping a lot of the cast in general with uair ladders and flip kick.

Lucario can overcome matchups where his toolkit shouldn't be winning because he can vaporize you with a good string of hits at high %, but I think matchups start to matter if a character has an easy way of killing you that doesn't involve a read or a kill confirm that only starts working past 100%.

I want to call him top 15 but I feel like he suffers from a syndrome where hitting the wrong character in bracket will mean he loses. Tsu didn't encounter characters fulfilling these archetypes at Frostbite, but he pretty much autolost to Cashmere at FPS2 and HIKARU at Civil War.

Add the fact that Lucario can just die normally and be set back horribly as part of his inconsistent nature and I think he's ultimately only going to be good long-term in the hands of players that can really, really, really push the consistency of his neutral and are good at landing his kill confirm tech. I think way more of him now than I did 3-4 months ago but he's probably not ever going to get as far as he did at FPS2 again unless a top Lucario player gets a fantastic bracket to work with.

I also assume a Lucario ditto would be stupidly volatile

Overall I have 8 tier sections (Top / High / Upper / Upper-Mid / Mid / Low-Mid / Low / Bottom) and I'd put Lucario in Upper. Sectioned off, you basically have Top/High/Upper > Mid Sections > Low/Bottom, so Lucario functions in the top 19 of my list.

 

[|RK|]

I like this post.

Two quick things: Lucario dittos are actually moronic. It is the only time where your opponent legitimately becomes a better character than you when you're doing well.

Second - consulting some Lucario players on Discord, I did get a little bit if insight into why Tsu struggles against some characters. First, Falcon - Tsu's conversions are very good, but he doesn't necessarily optimize them for certain characters. On Falcon, you can actually take him across the stage and put him in an edgeguard situation by repeating uthrow Nair regrab. You'd also do more damage.

As for the grapplers - reverse ASC actually works pretty well as a defensive option since the presence of a hitbox prevents grabs/pivot grabs from working as Lucario approaches. Still learning the rest of those MUs, but figured that was interesting.

 

[T4ylor]

Das Koopa Yo where that full tier list post at?

To avoid a one-liner: And Leo is beating most everyone with Corrin, as expected, looking like a strong Corn result for ya people focused on results more than anything

 

[TDK]

The Arena 2017 (189 Entrants) (Mexico)

1st: MKLeo
2nd: Javi
3rd: Wonf
4th: Hyuga
5th: Regi
5th: Salva
7th: Richy
7th: BryanZ
9th: D.POLLO
9th: Richi
9th: QROG
9th: Rox
13th: Yura
13th: LeSou
13th: Reflet
13th: Waymas

Kawaii Kon 2017 (131 Entrants) (Hawaii)

1st: VoiD
2nd: Abadango
3rd: Saiki
4th: False
5th: Dren
5th: Rush
7th: WAR
7th: K0rean
9th: Clickirby
9th: Snappy
9th: Rave
9th: AnD
13th: TropicalPyramid
13th: FSLink
13th: Wingit
13th: Fruitbasket

Northwest Majors IX (61 Entrants) (Pacific Northwest somewhere)

1st: Captain L
2nd: Dekillsage
3rd: Locke
4th: Pow

 

[Routa]

I have heard something about Doc and Wario having an advantage in Lucario MU. Dunno about the Doc one, but the Wario one makes sense. Lucario is not the fastest character in game which makes him easy target for platform camping. The idea is to camp for full waft and then try to get Lucario to aroubd 60% and fish for the waft confirm. if he fails to get the waft... well he will camp for another waft.

 

[DanGR]

Das Koopa I get what you're saying about aura's fragility in the face of kill confirms, but I disagree with the extent to which you think this defines the character. This isn't a zero sum game in which Lucario's only strength is aura, and it's negated by kill confirms. He has other tools. He has some really solid tools that aren't just aura back air at 50%. Lucario has matchups outside of aura that don't automatically lean in everyone else's favor if you could remove it; aura just obscures them. It takes the spotlight. Additionally, Tsu isn't Lucario incarnate. He's 1 lucario player with his own strengths and weaknesses, and so defining Lucario's MU spread based on Tsu's successes and failures alone isn't accurate.

 

[verbatim]

A very pertinent example of that would be Cloud. Cloud kills very early and generally doesn't have to worry about aura, yet Tsu's breakout preformance started with an upset over Tweek.


He also beat Salem, but I'd argue that there's an argument to be made that it's not that bad once you realize that Bayonetta's ability to force character's to take 40-60 damage before getting back on stage isn't as useful in this matchup as it is in all the others.