Fatmanonice

I normally don't do theorycrafting in my status but I wanted to share something that's relevant to a good number of popular fanbases. One of the common criticisms I get is that I have mentioned four characters have been prevalent in insider circles since fall 2018: Waluigi, Geno, Lloyd, and Ryu Hayabusa (now a split argument of whether he was leakbait for Byleth so I won't go into him). "Okay, smartass, if they've been heard so long... Where are they?" While typing something up in the Dixie thread today, I came to realize that most of the third party and DLC characters throughout Smash history have a seemingly intentional timing to them. These can be split up into three categories: promoting major projects in the works, promoting an upcoming game even if it's just a rerelease, and to be part of certain anniversary celebrations. Before I start, I want to say that Plant, Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, and Min Min were probably released "just because" and the only third party character I think was added just for the hell of it was Ken. This all said, let me break it down by category:

Major upcoming project: Snake (MGS4), Ryu (Street Fighter V), Cloud (FF VII Remake)

Upcoming game release: Sonic (Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games), Pac-Man (Japanese release of Pac-Man and the Ghostly Adventures), Corrin (Western release of Fire Emblem Fates), Bayonetta (Bayonetta 2 rerelease), Joker (Persona 5 Scramble and Persona 5 R), Hero (DQ XI S), Byleth (Three Houses DLC)

This all said, this seems very, very intentional, especially for third party characters.

Commerorating an Anniversary: Megaman (part of the 25th anniversary), Simon/Richter (part of Konami's 50th anniversary), Banjo (part of the 20th anniversary), Terry (interesting enough, was not only released super close to the 28th anniversary of Fatal Fury but the 20th anniversary of Garou: Mark of the Wolves, which is a Fatal Fury spin-off that Terry stars in)

With these mentioned, these bring up some very interesting prospects for four evergreen characters in Smash speculation: Waluigi, Lloyd, Dixie, and Geno and I'll go into all of them focusing just on these topics.

Waluigi: pretty straight forward, 35th Super Mario anniversary and, coincidentally, Waluigi's 20th birthday is next Tuesday. I don't care how you feel about him, you have to admit that would be pretty cool if they planned this all along.

Lloyd: 25th anniversary of Tales and Namco has been hardcore teasing announcement since literally January. The Tales stuff leaked last September so it heavily implies is there's going to be several major announcements later this year. Also, I know not everyone is a Tales fan but the actual 25th anniversary isn't until December, part of the reason why Lloyd was part of my theorycraft for 5 and why he's part of my theorycraft for 9.

Dixie: I went into it in both the Geno thread and Dixie but there's been rumblings of "something" major being announced soon for the DK series since November and recently it's hit a fever pitch. Especially with the strong [word redacted] that the game is strictly first party and the first non-buck passed DK adventure since Jungle Beat, I could easily see them using Smash to promote. If Nintendo can do this for Fire Emblem Fates and Three Square Meals a Day, they can certainly do it for DK.

Geno: this one is particularly interesting because, as someone pointed out in the Geno thread the other day, Square doesn't believe in free lunches. Cloud promotes FF VII Remake, Hero promotes DQ XI S, Hero's costumes promoted not only DQ XI S but the rereleases of DQ I-III, two Square spirit events that promote Octopath Traveler and Trials of Mana, and even Geno's Mii costume in Smash 4 promoted the January 2016 release of SMRPG on the Wii U VC. In short, pretty much everything they've added is specifically an ad for something coming up or something that can be bought right now with minimal effort. This said, if Geno were to come to Smash, he wouldn't be promoting SMRPG on the NSO because that's a free service and free makes Square Enix break out in hives. This means that Geno would be tied to... Something... that requires people to break out the ol' debit card. What could this be? Time will tell, if at all.

Also, yes, I know there's other major anniversaries and game releases coming up but these were the four I wanted to focus on because, honestly, all four have had dedicated fanbases since the Brawl Speculation days and it would be pretty cool if things panned out for most, if not all, of them in the upcoming year and a half.

Kind of wild to think E3 2010 was now more than a decade ago. It was probably the best Nintendo E3 ever aside from E3 2006 mainly because Nintendo came out guns blazing, bringing something new to almost all their major franchises and reviving a ton too. Mario and Zelda got multiple new games, Kirby got his first real console game since Kirby 64, Metroid got a new game (but we don't talk about that), Animal Crossing got a new game, and, in a single presentation, Nintendo revived Donkey Kong Country, Kid Icarus, Pilot Wings, and Golden Sun. It was kind of surreal because it was one of those super memorable E3s without Smash and Pokemon only had a few spin-off games. It really makes me wonder if Nintendo will ever recapture that amount of magic in one presentation again.

Everything that's going on the Smash competitive is pretty upsetting and there obviously needs to be heavy restructuring. Just from my own experience running a student organization and being a student supervisor and advisor to this day on a college campus, just some of my own thoughts:

-Accountability. Accountability. Accountability. Sometimes people do the wrong thing because of ignorance and those are people that can be reformed. People who knowingly do ****ty things can only be reformed through a long process if at all. The longer they do ****ty things without being called out on it, the harder they'll be to reform. Catch it early because, if you don't, ****ty people are going to have influence in your group, making it an even bigger problem.

-Diversity is good but it should be organic. A common complaint is that the Smash fanbase is misogynistic as holy hell so bringing a bunch of women into the equation won't inherently change it. You have to work towards making an environment that's welcoming to women, queer, and trans people so that they WANT to be a part of it. Filling quotas isn't going to anything, it's just going to endanger those people until real changes are made.

-A big problem with Ultimate is that a lot of the leadership was literally just Smash 4's. Leadership should not be static and other people should be allowed to grow and make major decisions on behalf of a group. Horrendously ancient people like me can act as advisors and guidance but we shouldn't be making most of the decisions. Leadership can also be from the background and a common mistake I see with young leaders is that they think they have to decide everything themselves without input when it should be a collaborative effort.

-I kind of agree with other people's assessments of FGC in that it's basically letting frat houses be run by frat boys. Your 20's are a turbulent time and your typical early 20 year old is a POS in one way or another. I was kind of a POS in my early 20's too. The critical thing about your early 20's though is that POS will turn into bowl blocking turds if there's no intervention. I got the proper boot to the head on multiple fronts to straighten me out by my mid 20's but it's dangerously clear that this isn't happening for a lot of people. Dip**** 20 year olds turn into dip**** 30 year old managers who eventually become dip**** 60 year old congressmen. The point is that the longer it goes on, the more damage they can do and the less likely they can be reformed. Have a whole bunch of assholes and you basically have the current problem where it comes to define the entire organization.

For some reason, there will supposedly be a Direct sometime this month, even though it doesn't look like it's in the cards until September. What's your opinion on this?

I really like the current buzz of a potential Mario presentation because, if following Nintendo presentations over the years has taught me anything, it's always to expect the unexpected. Yes, stuff leaks but Nintendo does a pretty damn good job of keeping the stuff they really want secret a secret. If the 3D Mario remasters and Mario Kart 9 are the "surface level" rumors that have been lingering for months, it really makes you wonder what the ace/aces up their sleeves are for Mario this year. We got Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games, maybe it's time for Mario and Master Chief at the Bass Pro Shop Gun Range? Mushroom Kingdom Hearts? Hopefully we'll find out soon.

When you're a Smash gatekeeper and die of shock that spirits don't deconfirm, only to discover that Heaven has pearly gates:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rLjebM0ZluQ

Hey, Names Dr.DonPatch64, I'm new here, just asking is there any new speculation on geno yet or not, if so why?

Hey Fatman! Just wondering whether you still use Discord. I want to ask you something but am not sure whether you still use it or not.

are you still confident in Geno,Lloyd,MC,Dante,Crash and if so why?

Now that crash 4 has been officially revealed, what did you want to talk about that makes crash seem almost inevitable to you?

so i guess i'll ask what's probably on people's mind rn

.......was vault boy one of the mystery miis?

Hey Fatman, I have suspicions about who the Sony Mii Costume is, should I talk to you here or in DMs for secrecy?

So I'm curious about how confident you are when it comes to your DLC picks. (Master Chief, Dante, Geno, Lloyd, Crash). In the last DLC, there were a handful of characters that were not really floating around insider circles. Byleth and Joker were unexpected (though Byleth did have some Fire Emblem content floating around prior based on what you said). Terry wasn't known till literally days before the direct. Hero and to a certain extent Banjo, were the only characters that had long standing rumors that ended up being true

To clarify, I'm not doubting your picks entirely because I actually agree with your lineup 100%, I'm just wondering if something has changed between FP1 and FP2 that has caused more confidence in your picks compared to the last wave where everyone felt realively uncertain with who was next and some long standing rumors (Ryu Hayabusa and Steve for example) ended up not coming into fruition

In other words, how likely is it that we'll get characters no one was expecting? Or are the rumors floating around this time are harder to dismiss and are a lot more on point?

Hey man, mind sending me a DM? Want to talk to ya about something, nothing important.

Random question, but after Geno, would would be your most-wanted character? Regardless of feasibility or likelihood. You’ve talked a lot about how you don’t necessarily care about certain characters but still push for them because they have things backing them up in the spec scene, but who’s actually someone that you’re rooting for, whether they have a snowball’s chance or not?

So Papagenos decided to clarify what exactly he meant by this tweet back in December.
https://twitter.com/GenosPapa/status/1204198925294559237
https://youtu.be/xzqR4UtONjQ (Around 11:03)
Now from what I remember you said you were both told the same thing and that the tweet was referring to an announcement that you were told was supposedly happening around the Indie Direct/VGA's, was this all you were ever told about this, that Toby Fox was potentially doing something Mother related and it was just assumed to be a game announcement? You seem to still be confident in something happening with the franchise.

Do you not accept DMs? When I click your name, it doesn't give me the option to start a conversation.

I know that Waluigi is a likely bonus character if they exist because he’s been in insider speculation for a long while, but have other characters like Isaac (also a long-standing fan request) and Rex (missed the base + FP1 like an ARMs rep but is liked by Sakurai) ever come up and floated around in insider circles that they could be possible as well?

I'm interested in hearing about your opinion on all the Rayman stuff going on, from the bot changes to the trademark stuff that's very similar to banjo last year. Do you think it means anything? Have your contacts said anything about it?

Fatman, can i follow you on Twitter? Give me your username! QQS from Chile! Thanks

Do you think it's possible for the supposed next Square rep to be a character from Edios or Taito? I'm more interested in Taito since I've recently been getting an increased interest in the idea of Space Invader in Smash.

Finally some good news... Genndy Tartakovsky's Popeye project has been picked up by another studio!
https://www.newsarama.com/50163-genndy-tartakovsky-and-king-features-revive-popeye-animated-film.html

Hello, I was just wondering if you could just lay out on a clean slate what your predictions are as reading it from the Geno thread is, confusing to say the least. By predictions I just mean the things you are predicting for overall DLC not really only restricted to vol 2.

I don't know if I'm allowed to do this but some asshole set fire to the local mosque during Ramadan in my town yesterday and I'm trying to help their congregation raise money to rebuild. Despite being a secular humanist, they've always referred to me as "brother" and regularly welcomed me as a guest so I want to share this as much as I can:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/fundraiser-for-islamic-center-of-cape-girardeau?utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3GIU-RS6_LEjtJJblSI09xfjjOa5-L95RRpVy0vtoMN_pmrNZT5nVD-UI

I probably asked before but why are you so confident in Microsoft getting another rep

Hey, something came up regarding Rayman in Smash and wondered if this might be worth looking into https://twitter.com/RaymanForSmash/status/1251571025244049411?s=19 https://twitter.com/MrMatrics/status/1251581710183157770

I'm slowly coming to the realization that there are few experiences that are more genuinely American than getting hazard pay but feeling guilty about it because a vast majority of your friends and family don't and a good number have either had hours cut or have been totally laid off.

I see you and so many others get so much **** its ridiculous. Why do people get so angry with you exactly?

So, 1 of your people are saying some sort of iwata tribute. What do you think honestly are the chances of it, and when may it come out? Also still no Indies words huh? I still am hoping for one myself

So now with Animal Crossing getting spirits, LM3 is now the only major Switch game to not get spirits of somekind. I was wondering what you think of this and if it's pointing to a character

Fatmanonice , may I have a word in private?

Excuse me Fatmanonice sir, may I talk to you in private? I came across something that got overlooked.

Just curious. When did you first hear of the Advance Wars Mobile rumor you mentioned? In the Summer last year?

Trying to get a sense of where this rumor originates from.

Fatmanonice can I speak to you in private?

Just asking. Now that a ARMS character happened do you think this might change your predictions on some characters also did your thoughts on Geno's chances change for the better or worse?

A lot of people have noticed I haven't been on a lot as of late and I'll just say, yes, it does have a lot to do with Covid-19. I work on a college campus so to say life has been upheaved is an understatement. Tens of thousands of people in my town have had significant hour cuts or have been flat out laid off. I have an "essential" job as a custodian (sanitation during a global pandemic, yeehaw) so I've been spared but it's only a week in and I'm already seeing a lot of suffering around me.

Students are being forced to move off campus in waves starting on the 20th and pretty much every student worker will be effectively laid off by the end of the month. I had the morbid task of sanitizing a no longer in use dormitory on campus as a proposed quarantine zone. Things are a mess because people are beside themselves with grief and Covid-19 hasn't even hit this town yet. I'm trying to figure out my place in all this and how I can help so, obviously, Smash is kind of an afterthought right now.

Sakurai recently doubled down on there being no plans for additional support after the pass ends, so do you think the rumored Iwata tribute could be the pass' final character?

Hey there Fatman, I would like to know your opinion on Rayman and if you think he has any shot in Pass 2 for Smash. I know the Ubisoft costumes might hurt him but it's weird Rayman doesn't have one and is only a spirit. Plus, it seems like there is an original remix of Ezio's Family that plays during Altair's costume trailer. I personally think something is fishy with all of this.

People have accused me of being super biased with my 6 predictions for Season 2 so I kind of want to make it public how I feel about each. Basically my 6 are who I think are the most likely for Season 2, not necessarily who I want:

Waluigi- Yes, I love Waluigi. He's one of my favorite video game characters and the only reason I'm not super gung ho about him for Smash because there's no real "urgency" to him. The dude has averaged 2 playable games a year since his creation and he's basically a meme God; he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Despite this, I do think its his time based on what I know and have heard.

Geno- Pretty self explanatory. My name has pretty much become synonymous with the Geno fanbase and has been for over a decade. Can't really separate myself from that but, as the record shows, I was pretty adamant about Geno being near impossible for Smash 4 and there's literally years of evidence backing that up. My belief in Geno in Ultimate is genuine despite most dismissing it as pure bias.

Crash- No real attachment to the character. Like Sonic, I acknowledge that he's a huge icon but I don't really care for him. His impact and history with the Smash fanbase is undeniable too.

Lloyd- I'm not super attached to the idea of Lloyd but I like him as a character and see him or Heihachi getting the coveted Namco spot. I personally side with Tales over Tekken but the evidence for either is honestly fairly strong so it's not like one absolutely dominates the other when it comes to what has been heard. I am pretty firm on the belief that it will ultimately come down to those two when it comes to a Namco rep.

Dante- I'm probably going to get a phone call later today about my parents being shot dead because of this comment but... I don't like Dante. It honestly pains me that he's by far the most likely Capcom rep. There's like half a dozen Capcom characters I would prefer but I'm not going to let my own bias handwave the mountains of evidence in his favor.

Master Chief- Another character that I personally give negative ****s about but there's no denying he's Microsoft's Mario, an enormous gaming icon, and basically the patron saint of modern FPS and even online play. He's groan worthy to me but his "credentials" are pretty damn stacked and the evidence for Microsoft getting a second rep is strong so, again, dismissing him just because I don't want him would be kind of dumb.

So, Fatmanonice, what do you think of "Junko Leak" shown at Papageno's Discord?

Sorry to be a pain, but I've been speculating this for the past few weeks - is there a possibility of Angry Birds content making it into Smash in some form? the 10th anniversary is this year (I feel old) and Rovio have been doing a lot to celebrate it and get the franchise back in public consciousness (a crossover with Duolingo and "anger booths" are the most notable examples)