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Fatmanonice
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  • I normally don't do theorycrafting in my status but I wanted to share something that's relevant to a good number of popular fanbases. One of the common criticisms I get is that I have mentioned four characters have been prevalent in insider circles since fall 2018: Waluigi, Geno, Lloyd, and Ryu Hayabusa (now a split argument of whether he was leakbait for Byleth so I won't go into him). "Okay, smartass, if they've been heard so long... Where are they?" While typing something up in the Dixie thread today, I came to realize that most of the third party and DLC characters throughout Smash history have a seemingly intentional timing to them. These can be split up into three categories: promoting major projects in the works, promoting an upcoming game even if it's just a rerelease, and to be part of certain anniversary celebrations. Before I start, I want to say that Plant, Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, and Min Min were probably released "just because" and the only third party character I think was added just for the hell of it was Ken. This all said, let me break it down by category:

    Major upcoming project: Snake (MGS4), Ryu (Street Fighter V), Cloud (FF VII Remake)

    Upcoming game release: Sonic (Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games), Pac-Man (Japanese release of Pac-Man and the Ghostly Adventures), Corrin (Western release of Fire Emblem Fates), Bayonetta (Bayonetta 2 rerelease), Joker (Persona 5 Scramble and Persona 5 R), Hero (DQ XI S), Byleth (Three Houses DLC)

    This all said, this seems very, very intentional, especially for third party characters.

    Commerorating an Anniversary: Megaman (part of the 25th anniversary), Simon/Richter (part of Konami's 50th anniversary), Banjo (part of the 20th anniversary), Terry (interesting enough, was not only released super close to the 28th anniversary of Fatal Fury but the 20th anniversary of Garou: Mark of the Wolves, which is a Fatal Fury spin-off that Terry stars in)

    With these mentioned, these bring up some very interesting prospects for four evergreen characters in Smash speculation: Waluigi, Lloyd, Dixie, and Geno and I'll go into all of them focusing just on these topics.

    Waluigi: pretty straight forward, 35th Super Mario anniversary and, coincidentally, Waluigi's 20th birthday is next Tuesday. I don't care how you feel about him, you have to admit that would be pretty cool if they planned this all along.

    Lloyd: 25th anniversary of Tales and Namco has been hardcore teasing announcement since literally January. The Tales stuff leaked last September so it heavily implies is there's going to be several major announcements later this year. Also, I know not everyone is a Tales fan but the actual 25th anniversary isn't until December, part of the reason why Lloyd was part of my theorycraft for 5 and why he's part of my theorycraft for 9.

    Dixie: I went into it in both the Geno thread and Dixie but there's been rumblings of "something" major being announced soon for the DK series since November and recently it's hit a fever pitch. Especially with the strong [word redacted] that the game is strictly first party and the first non-buck passed DK adventure since Jungle Beat, I could easily see them using Smash to promote. If Nintendo can do this for Fire Emblem Fates and Three Square Meals a Day, they can certainly do it for DK.

    Geno: this one is particularly interesting because, as someone pointed out in the Geno thread the other day, Square doesn't believe in free lunches. Cloud promotes FF VII Remake, Hero promotes DQ XI S, Hero's costumes promoted not only DQ XI S but the rereleases of DQ I-III, two Square spirit events that promote Octopath Traveler and Trials of Mana, and even Geno's Mii costume in Smash 4 promoted the January 2016 release of SMRPG on the Wii U VC. In short, pretty much everything they've added is specifically an ad for something coming up or something that can be bought right now with minimal effort. This said, if Geno were to come to Smash, he wouldn't be promoting SMRPG on the NSO because that's a free service and free makes Square Enix break out in hives. This means that Geno would be tied to... Something... that requires people to break out the ol' debit card. What could this be? Time will tell, if at all.

    Also, yes, I know there's other major anniversaries and game releases coming up but these were the four I wanted to focus on because, honestly, all four have had dedicated fanbases since the Brawl Speculation days and it would be pretty cool if things panned out for most, if not all, of them in the upcoming year and a half.
    Kind of wild to think E3 2010 was now more than a decade ago. It was probably the best Nintendo E3 ever aside from E3 2006 mainly because Nintendo came out guns blazing, bringing something new to almost all their major franchises and reviving a ton too. Mario and Zelda got multiple new games, Kirby got his first real console game since Kirby 64, Metroid got a new game (but we don't talk about that), Animal Crossing got a new game, and, in a single presentation, Nintendo revived Donkey Kong Country, Kid Icarus, Pilot Wings, and Golden Sun. It was kind of surreal because it was one of those super memorable E3s without Smash and Pokemon only had a few spin-off games. It really makes me wonder if Nintendo will ever recapture that amount of magic in one presentation again.
    R
    RetrogamerMax
    I think Nintendo can do it again.
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I think there's a lot of potential this year that I don't think a lot of people realize. It's already been borderline confirmed that Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Pikmin are likely getting stuff soon and new Kirby and Fire Emblem stuff is being actively worked on. This is just the things that are outside of rumors. Throw in the franchises that have long standing major rumors and you have over a dozen, which is pretty nuts and why "E3 2020" could be absolutely monumental. As I pointed out, the current rumors are very, very similar to how E3 2010 turned out: multiple Mario and Zelda projects, several Pokemon spin-offs, Metroid, and even the revival of several dead franchises. It's quite a coincidence if not totally intentional.
    Everything that's going on the Smash competitive is pretty upsetting and there obviously needs to be heavy restructuring. Just from my own experience running a student organization and being a student supervisor and advisor to this day on a college campus, just some of my own thoughts:

    -Accountability. Accountability. Accountability. Sometimes people do the wrong thing because of ignorance and those are people that can be reformed. People who knowingly do ****ty things can only be reformed through a long process if at all. The longer they do ****ty things without being called out on it, the harder they'll be to reform. Catch it early because, if you don't, ****ty people are going to have influence in your group, making it an even bigger problem.

    -Diversity is good but it should be organic. A common complaint is that the Smash fanbase is misogynistic as holy hell so bringing a bunch of women into the equation won't inherently change it. You have to work towards making an environment that's welcoming to women, queer, and trans people so that they WANT to be a part of it. Filling quotas isn't going to anything, it's just going to endanger those people until real changes are made.

    -A big problem with Ultimate is that a lot of the leadership was literally just Smash 4's. Leadership should not be static and other people should be allowed to grow and make major decisions on behalf of a group. Horrendously ancient people like me can act as advisors and guidance but we shouldn't be making most of the decisions. Leadership can also be from the background and a common mistake I see with young leaders is that they think they have to decide everything themselves without input when it should be a collaborative effort.

    -I kind of agree with other people's assessments of FGC in that it's basically letting frat houses be run by frat boys. Your 20's are a turbulent time and your typical early 20 year old is a POS in one way or another. I was kind of a POS in my early 20's too. The critical thing about your early 20's though is that POS will turn into bowl blocking turds if there's no intervention. I got the proper boot to the head on multiple fronts to straighten me out by my mid 20's but it's dangerously clear that this isn't happening for a lot of people. Dip**** 20 year olds turn into dip**** 30 year old managers who eventually become dip**** 60 year old congressmen. The point is that the longer it goes on, the more damage they can do and the less likely they can be reformed. Have a whole bunch of assholes and you basically have the current problem where it comes to define the entire organization.
    For some reason, there will supposedly be a Direct sometime this month, even though it doesn't look like it's in the cards until September. What's your opinion on this?
    Pokelego999
    Pokelego999
    Probably. There was stuff planned for last month.
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I think it's pretty likely for a number of reasons:

    -Nintendo has already cancelled three major presentations this year.

    -From a marketing perspective, waiting until September to reveal your holiday line up is basically suicide. Negotiating shelf space, getting advertising to retailers, etc takes months of prep work and Nintendo's already nail bitingly close to this process being a crunch this year.

    -The Polish Amiibo leak back in early May has the next major Amiibo wave for September 18th meaning it's already in the books that the next Smash character is releasing in September, heavily implying they're going to be announced before then.

    -Some majors rumors have been on standby since literally December and almost everybody agrees that a number of them are long overdue to be announced.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    Fair reasoning, sir. Also, before you posted, we've had an update recently, with the French leaker Kelios stating that we'll have a Direct sometime this month. No specifics so far, but their track record shows that they leaked some big Nintendo announcements for the last few months (AC Direct, Mini-Direct), so they seem reliable.
    I really like the current buzz of a potential Mario presentation because, if following Nintendo presentations over the years has taught me anything, it's always to expect the unexpected. Yes, stuff leaks but Nintendo does a pretty damn good job of keeping the stuff they really want secret a secret. If the 3D Mario remasters and Mario Kart 9 are the "surface level" rumors that have been lingering for months, it really makes you wonder what the ace/aces up their sleeves are for Mario this year. We got Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games, maybe it's time for Mario and Master Chief at the Bass Pro Shop Gun Range? Mushroom Kingdom Hearts? Hopefully we'll find out soon.
    R
    RetrogamerMax
    While Chrom was never Assist Trophy, he still appears in Robin's Final Smash and he is playable. I think they could let Assist Trophies become playable while keeping it off or even on while someone is playing as the playable version of the character.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    In before it's Chain Chomp, because no one else would be that simple to promote.

    But seriously though, my gut feeling says that they haven't thought of the possibility for more than a few minutes. The most "likeliest" one to be promoted has been set aside to the point that he wasn't even Sakurai's first choice as an ARM character. The only other "real" choice at this stage is seen as comic relief and little else by every developer involved, even Camelot.

    ATs have been seen as a given, but I'm not so sure, especially now.
    R
    RetrogamerMax
    Well just because Sakurai overlooked Spring Man for Min Min and Ninjara, that doesn't mean Assist Trophy promotions can't happen. Besides, Sakurai definitely has someone else in mind to probably break the barrier.
    Hey Fatman! Just wondering whether you still use Discord. I want to ask you something but am not sure whether you still use it or not.
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I do. Same name as here. Not part of a lot of servers though, largely just Star Road and Forest Maze.
    DIY
    DIY
    Perfect! Yeah, I still have you friended on it but have been really busy lately and wasn't sure whether you still use it. I'll message you soon about something.
    are you still confident in Geno,Lloyd,MC,Dante,Crash and if so why?
    ⛧Lord Metallium⛧
    ⛧Lord Metallium⛧
    Dante or Kos-Mos my pics
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Yes and have been since January and factors really haven't changed too much. To tell you the truth, I haven't given up on Waluigi either. As to why? That's not exactly something I can answer in a short blurb. All my conclusions are from research I've done since November 2018 within my network. If you search my name and a character name you can usually find some of my explanations pretty easily but it's not a simple thing. I ever wrote a 15 page essay for Geno back in January and, with everything that has come up since, I could probably expand it to 25 but, like my location says, I overthink everything and that's kind of my 14 year legacy here.
    Now that crash 4 has been officially revealed, what did you want to talk about that makes crash seem almost inevitable to you?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Currently at work so I'll try to summarize it:

    -Evidence shows that Min Min was supposed to be released in April.

    -Heavily implies at least 7 and 8 were supposed to be E3 announcements.

    -Min Min was moved to late June, presumably close to when 7 was supposed to be released.

    -This heavily implies that 8 was originally planned as a September release.

    -Crash 4 comes out early October.

    Bonus Tinfoil: Amiibos are coming out in pairs. 7's will be Joker and Hero. 8's will be Banjo and Terry, coincidentally the only Western character and a Western caricature.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    Fatmanonice Fatmanonice Seeing as this specific report sounds plausible, I would like to hear the long version when you are able to divulge it, please.
    Oz o:
    Oz o:
    Crash is an iconic Sony character, and easily fits into Smash. For me, it's just that simple. He makes far more sense than a lot of other characters, and especially nonsense like Goku and Naruto.
    so i guess i'll ask what's probably on people's mind rn

    .......was vault boy one of the mystery miis?
    Hey Fatman, I have suspicions about who the Sony Mii Costume is, should I talk to you here or in DMs for secrecy?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    DMs. I'll send you one in a moment.
    So I'm curious about how confident you are when it comes to your DLC picks. (Master Chief, Dante, Geno, Lloyd, Crash). In the last DLC, there were a handful of characters that were not really floating around insider circles. Byleth and Joker were unexpected (though Byleth did have some Fire Emblem content floating around prior based on what you said). Terry wasn't known till literally days before the direct. Hero and to a certain extent Banjo, were the only characters that had long standing rumors that ended up being true

    To clarify, I'm not doubting your picks entirely because I actually agree with your lineup 100%, I'm just wondering if something has changed between FP1 and FP2 that has caused more confidence in your picks compared to the last wave where everyone felt realively uncertain with who was next and some long standing rumors (Ryu Hayabusa and Steve for example) ended up not coming into fruition

    In other words, how likely is it that we'll get characters no one was expecting? Or are the rumors floating around this time are harder to dismiss and are a lot more on point?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I'll go more in-depth about this later but I think Season 2 has been different for a couple of reasons:

    -Mii Costume Guy's costume dumps. He did Banjo's and Cuphead for the Fighter's Pass and... That was it. Now we have over a dozen that are MIA according to him that potentially give strong hints to the main third parties of Season 2.

    -Lots of companies being not so subtle about their 2020 plans/interest in Smash. For example, Capcom in February 2019 was pretty blunt by more or less saying "we'll seriously consider Dante for Smash if y'all buy a buttload of DMC ports to the Switch" and, sure enough, they started porting DMC games like crazy.

    -Several notable characters floating around in space since 2018 that are still MIA and never really left insider talks.

    -The Fighter's Pass kind making it notable what to pay attention to and what to ignore.

    -At least two of the presumed companies involved (Activision and Capcom) being absolute dog**** at keeping secrets.

    In short, it's very different from the Fighter's Pass.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    Funny thing in regards to Activision, we currently have no concrete idea what they got in mind for future Crash plans. The next Crash game only has breadcrumbs for leaks, which is really unprecedented. The strangest thing is that we've yet to hear their big Crash news in this June.
    Random question, but after Geno, would would be your most-wanted character? Regardless of feasibility or likelihood. You’ve talked a lot about how you don’t necessarily care about certain characters but still push for them because they have things backing them up in the spec scene, but who’s actually someone that you’re rooting for, whether they have a snowball’s chance or not?
    So Papagenos decided to clarify what exactly he meant by this tweet back in December.
    https://twitter.com/GenosPapa/status/1204198925294559237
    https://youtu.be/xzqR4UtONjQ (Around 11:03)
    Now from what I remember you said you were both told the same thing and that the tweet was referring to an announcement that you were told was supposedly happening around the Indie Direct/VGA's, was this all you were ever told about this, that Toby Fox was potentially doing something Mother related and it was just assumed to be a game announcement? You seem to still be confident in something happening with the franchise.
    Do you not accept DMs? When I click your name, it doesn't give me the option to start a conversation.
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Because of past harassment, I have to start the conversation. What's ironic is that I actually set this up when I was a mod during the Smash 4 days. I'll send you a PM.
    I know that Waluigi is a likely bonus character if they exist because he’s been in insider speculation for a long while, but have other characters like Isaac (also a long-standing fan request) and Rex (missed the base + FP1 like an ARMs rep but is liked by Sakurai) ever come up and floated around in insider circles that they could be possible as well?
    R
    RetrogamerMax
    Screw Waluigi, we need Taco Stand Waluigi in Smash instead along with Pink Gold Peach.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    In all seriousness though, this data processing might just be what the Isaac supporters need, since they shifted their priorities into bringing back Golden Sun.
    R
    RetrogamerMax
    I think it's what us Goemon fans need to. Yes I still want Goemon in Smash so the franchise can be more recognizable to folks outside of Japan, but it's more important to me they we get another Goemon game because we haven't had a proper mainline Goemon in 15 years since Ebisu and his team have left Konami. The health of the Goemon franchise is my top gaming priority and I'm dying for another Ganbare Goemon game.
    I'm interested in hearing about your opinion on all the Rayman stuff going on, from the bot changes to the trademark stuff that's very similar to banjo last year. Do you think it means anything? Have your contacts said anything about it?
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    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I think a lot of it is too little too late. For example, Banjo's stuff was in the fall of 2018 and the Tales stuff was in the fall of 2019 which is part of why Lloyd in Smash is one of my predictions. Along with that, nothing major has ever come up about Ubisoft. For example, Microsoft has had a lot of rumors come up in regards to Smash while Ubisoft hasn't. If anything Ubisoft is coming, it's under hard lock and key which, honestly, would be a huge outlier for Smash because Smash leaks are overwhelmingly because of third parties letting something slip.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    If they don't have a character coming at all, them covering up everything relating to Smash just makes them come off as not caring about Smash anymore.
    Do you think it's possible for the supposed next Square rep to be a character from Edios or Taito? I'm more interested in Taito since I've recently been getting an increased interest in the idea of Space Invader in Smash.
    Perkilator
    Perkilator
    INB4 Didney Wurl Boi
    Wario Wario Wario
    Wario Wario Wario
    This post has nothing to do with Sora...
    lady_sky skipper
    lady_sky skipper
    I'd like to see a Taito rep, the Space Invaders would be a good Taito Villain rep. Although I would also like to see Proco or Tiat from the Darius series in Smash Ultimate as well. :)
    Hello, I was just wondering if you could just lay out on a clean slate what your predictions are as reading it from the Geno thread is, confusing to say the least. By predictions I just mean the things you are predicting for overall DLC not really only restricted to vol 2.
    Ben Holt
    Ben Holt
    Fatmanonice Fatmanonice Let me in on your scoops. Didn't you also mention Ms. Pac-Man once?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Ben Holt Ben Holt Not as a playable character but as a Mii costume. Alright, so, there's a lot of Mii costume rumors but the ones I find the most credible are from "Mii Costume Guy." He's a shared contact between me, Papagenos, and a number of others and, became of a language barrier, we've had to use "in-betweens" to get certain messages. For example, Banjo's Mii costumes were correctly leaked by him in July 2019 but he didn't say that they were Mii costumes. He just passed on a list of names. He also did this with Terry's spirit board and Byleth's ALTs in October (I didn't get them until December), leaving us to (often wrongly) interprete what they were. For example, I mistook Byleth's ALT list as Mii costumes when I saw it despite him also sharing that a Three Houses spirit board and stage were coming (but he didn't specify when).

    So, moving beyond this, he has shared other names or supported them. In November and December, these were collected by the people who talk to Mii Costume Guy and, based on the names that came up, it was determined it was a "rejected character list." The reason for this, quite bluntly, was that the names that came up had incredibly small chances of being playable anyways but, at the time, it was a mystery why they came up at all. I've been asked to not make all of them public due to the surprise factor of a number of them but I'll split things into two categories:

    Mii costume rumors from or supported by Mii Costume Guy:

    -Gooigi
    -Ms. Pac-Man
    -Nightmare (Soul Caliber)
    -Cuphead
    -Arle (Puyo Pop)
    -Kos-Mos
    -Elecman (Megaman)
    -Kris (Deltarune)
    -Knight (Hollow Knight)
    -Mallow (Super Mario RPG)
    -Smithy (Super Mario RPG)
    -Character heavily associated with Square
    -Character heavily associated with Nintendo
    -Character heavily associated with Microsoft
    -A character that's borderline unbelievable if true and definitely worth the surprise

    Mii costumes rumors not from or currently backed by Mii Costume Guy:

    -D.VA (Overwatch)
    -Tracer (Overwatch)
    -Ori (Ori and the Blind Forest)
    -Sephiroth (Final Fantasy)
    -Steve? (Minecraft)
    -Arthur (Ghouls N Ghosts)
    -Travis (No More Heroes)
    -Cacodemon (DOOM)

    For obvious reasons, I believe the first list is more credible while the second list is a mixed bag and honestly a catch all of the ones that have caught peoples' attention or potentially true based on other things.
    Ben Holt
    Ben Holt
    Damn. I hope the part about Ms. Pac-Man as a Mii Costume is a mistranslation, as she's my most wanted Echo Fighter.
    I don't know if I'm allowed to do this but some asshole set fire to the local mosque during Ramadan in my town yesterday and I'm trying to help their congregation raise money to rebuild. Despite being a secular humanist, they've always referred to me as "brother" and regularly welcomed me as a guest so I want to share this as much as I can:

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/fundraiser-for-islamic-center-of-cape-girardeau?utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3GIU-RS6_LEjtJJblSI09xfjjOa5-L95RRpVy0vtoMN_pmrNZT5nVD-UI
    I probably asked before but why are you so confident in Microsoft getting another rep
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Sorry I missed this. I'll try to summarize my rationale:

    -Based on several major Mii costume theories, even before Season 2 started it was highly suggested that 5 of the 6 packs could be logically deduced: Nintendo, Square, Namco, Capcom, and Microsoft.

    -Lots of rumors about Nintendo and Microsoft that have gradually become true. Cuphead, Ori, Minecraft, and Hollow Knight have already happened and Rare Remix and the Master Chief Collection have been major rumors since last spring.

    -Long standing rumors that there was likely to be two more Western characters after Banjo.

    -Bungie expressing very strong enthusiasm for the idea multiple times.

    -Several rumors of upcoming Mii costumes that have very strong ties to Microsoft owned or related IPs.
    I'm slowly coming to the realization that there are few experiences that are more genuinely American than getting hazard pay but feeling guilty about it because a vast majority of your friends and family don't and a good number have either had hours cut or have been totally laid off.
    I see you and so many others get so much **** its ridiculous. Why do people get so angry with you exactly?

    So, 1 of your people are saying some sort of iwata tribute. What do you think honestly are the chances of it, and when may it come out? Also still no Indies words huh? I still am hoping for one myself
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    1. It was implied that an Iwata tribute would be last and likely a stand alone character if true. Reviewing my DMs, I got this around the second to last week of January. Like I said in the Shantae thread, not a lot supporting this right now but I'm making note of it anyways. I personally think there will be at least one bonus of some kind before this all wraps up. Like I've talked about in the past, Waluigi in some sort of capacity has been talked about for ages so he's probably a prime candidate for this too.

    2. Basically have PMs shut off due to past harassment. If you want to open a private conversation, just ask.
    Verde Coeden Scalesworth
    Verde Coeden Scalesworth
    Makes sense on both accounts. That said, anybody harassing you I hope you reported as is. It doesn't matter if you're unpopular or not for whatever reason. What happened was completely unacceptable.
    zferolie
    zferolie
    nods for both as well. I can see them doing some sort of bonus for sure as sort of a farewell to smash thing. Either being Iwata or something else. I really do have to wonder if Waluigi is actually a thing or an internal joke to mess people up haha. Stupid that people are harrassing you though.

    I do wonder if there will be more bonus's just to fill out that world of light list that was datamined back when smash launched. we would need 4 characters after this pass to fill it, so with the maybe Iwata, that would leave 3 more. MAYBE 3 echos or a Waluigi and 2 echos.
    So now with Animal Crossing getting spirits, LM3 is now the only major Switch game to not get spirits of somekind. I was wondering what you think of this and if it's pointing to a character
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Not sure. It really does stick out now, doesn't it? Three Houses didn't get their spirits until about 6 months later either so it does beg the question. Pretty sure there's a reason it and Undertale are currently MIA but I'm not so sure why for Luigi's Mansion now.
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    KirbyWorshipper2465
    Yeah, it's quite weird, it's not like the game sold poorly. Even Warframe of all things got spirit content before this game.

    As for Undertale, they simply may be waiting for Deltarune to be finished and released first.
    Just curious. When did you first hear of the Advance Wars Mobile rumor you mentioned? In the Summer last year?

    Trying to get a sense of where this rumor originates from.
    Just asking. Now that a ARMS character happened do you think this might change your predictions on some characters also did your thoughts on Geno's chances change for the better or worse?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    A first party character that's almost guaranteed to be a promotion so, no, not going to shuffle anything around. I slid my chips on Waluigi but I'm more than okay with this outcome too.
    A lot of people have noticed I haven't been on a lot as of late and I'll just say, yes, it does have a lot to do with Covid-19. I work on a college campus so to say life has been upheaved is an understatement. Tens of thousands of people in my town have had significant hour cuts or have been flat out laid off. I have an "essential" job as a custodian (sanitation during a global pandemic, yeehaw) so I've been spared but it's only a week in and I'm already seeing a lot of suffering around me.

    Students are being forced to move off campus in waves starting on the 20th and pretty much every student worker will be effectively laid off by the end of the month. I had the morbid task of sanitizing a no longer in use dormitory on campus as a proposed quarantine zone. Things are a mess because people are beside themselves with grief and Covid-19 hasn't even hit this town yet. I'm trying to figure out my place in all this and how I can help so, obviously, Smash is kind of an afterthought right now.
    Sakurai recently doubled down on there being no plans for additional support after the pass ends, so do you think the rumored Iwata tribute could be the pass' final character?
    • Like
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    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    I do. I think there's going to be a "surprise" final character because it feels appropriate given everything. For obvious reasons, Season 2 now carries a lot of emotional weight that Sakurai himself never thought it would have so I think an Iwata tribute after a super tumultuous year is potentially significant in a lot of ways.
    Hey there Fatman, I would like to know your opinion on Rayman and if you think he has any shot in Pass 2 for Smash. I know the Ubisoft costumes might hurt him but it's weird Rayman doesn't have one and is only a spirit. Plus, it seems like there is an original remix of Ezio's Family that plays during Altair's costume trailer. I personally think something is fishy with all of this.
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    A lot of people ask me about Rayman but, unfortunately, nothing has ever really come up to suggest Ubisoft is part of Season 2. The reason I have my six predictions is because there's a lot backing up the participation of the following companies: Nintendo, Square Enix, Namco, Capcom, and Microsoft. If anything, everything that has come up suggests that the last is likely a western company but Activision seems to have the most going for it.

    On the upside of everything, Rayman is definitely one of those characters that people are going to keep pushing for until they find their way into Smash. The Rayman fanbase is pretty tenacious and it's not likely to fold if he doesn't find his way into Ultimate.
    People have accused me of being super biased with my 6 predictions for Season 2 so I kind of want to make it public how I feel about each. Basically my 6 are who I think are the most likely for Season 2, not necessarily who I want:

    Waluigi- Yes, I love Waluigi. He's one of my favorite video game characters and the only reason I'm not super gung ho about him for Smash because there's no real "urgency" to him. The dude has averaged 2 playable games a year since his creation and he's basically a meme God; he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Despite this, I do think its his time based on what I know and have heard.

    Geno- Pretty self explanatory. My name has pretty much become synonymous with the Geno fanbase and has been for over a decade. Can't really separate myself from that but, as the record shows, I was pretty adamant about Geno being near impossible for Smash 4 and there's literally years of evidence backing that up. My belief in Geno in Ultimate is genuine despite most dismissing it as pure bias.

    Crash- No real attachment to the character. Like Sonic, I acknowledge that he's a huge icon but I don't really care for him. His impact and history with the Smash fanbase is undeniable too.

    Lloyd- I'm not super attached to the idea of Lloyd but I like him as a character and see him or Heihachi getting the coveted Namco spot. I personally side with Tales over Tekken but the evidence for either is honestly fairly strong so it's not like one absolutely dominates the other when it comes to what has been heard. I am pretty firm on the belief that it will ultimately come down to those two when it comes to a Namco rep.

    Dante- I'm probably going to get a phone call later today about my parents being shot dead because of this comment but... I don't like Dante. It honestly pains me that he's by far the most likely Capcom rep. There's like half a dozen Capcom characters I would prefer but I'm not going to let my own bias handwave the mountains of evidence in his favor.

    Master Chief- Another character that I personally give negative ****s about but there's no denying he's Microsoft's Mario, an enormous gaming icon, and basically the patron saint of modern FPS and even online play. He's groan worthy to me but his "credentials" are pretty damn stacked and the evidence for Microsoft getting a second rep is strong so, again, dismissing him just because I don't want him would be kind of dumb.
    So, Fatmanonice, what do you think of "Junko Leak" shown at Papageno's Discord?
    Fatmanonice
    Fatmanonice
    Nothing to suggest it's real. There's too many issues to begin with to the point it would probably take a solid hour to list everything. One of the bigger things: why would she be the first third party playable villain? Probably just a fan creation because we've seen this sort of thing many times before. Remember Agnes? I don't want to harp on it too much because then people will say I'm being "overly negative."
    Wario Wario Wario
    Wario Wario Wario
    Had to look that up - it looks really fake, even faker than the early Smashifieds.
    Sorry to be a pain, but I've been speculating this for the past few weeks - is there a possibility of Angry Birds content making it into Smash in some form? the 10th anniversary is this year (I feel old) and Rovio have been doing a lot to celebrate it and get the franchise back in public consciousness (a crossover with Duolingo and "anger booths" are the most notable examples)
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