I fully agree that there is skill involved in continuing to edgeguard in case your opponent is saved by the platform. I also fully agree that such skill is not nearly as...well-defined on Pictochat, and I agree that it's because Pictochat affects things in various ways. However, my concern is not of skill.
Can we focus on the question? Something cannot be anticipated, and returns a stock. Another thing can be anticipated, but still returns a stock. In terms of randomness, is one really better than the other? Just because it can be anticipated, does that really make it that much better, even though the end result is the same, except maybe the opportunity to tack on another 10%?
In my opinion, it's not. I think it's a psychological thing. The platform saves your opponent and even though you hit him again, he makes it back this time and you think "ah...well that does happen - we know the platforms do pop up there". The Arrows spawn in front of you and you think "wow that's lame how was i supposed to predict that".
To go onto another tangent, addressing Pictochat directly:
Is it really that unreasonable to expect someone to prepare for every hazard? What if we played with complete respect to the stage? Ike grabs Charizard at the centre of the stage, facing right. Ike thinks:
- Possible walls: Arrows, Singer, Sailboat. I am facing the wrong way for Diagonal Line; I would be on the inside of the Whale; I won't be able to CG in Bricks
- Possible damaging hazards: Arrows is ideal... wall and then damage; Missiles... high reward in damage; Fire... low reward; Plant... medium reward; Cart will start on the left so that's out; Spikes is too far away
Honestly, I think this kinda of split-second analysis is very possible. Meanwhile, Charizard's overall strategy is to zone Ike when six seconds of blank time elapses, which is doable since there's so much space on Pictochat. He only needs to play carefully for a few seconds, and does his approaching during favourable or neutral drawings, and during the beginning of blank time.
Those arguments like "p1 gets grab, no reward, p2 gets same grab, combo into hazard" can also be applied to Yoshi's Island. Watch this match:
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What if on the first stock, Marth had chosen to up-b the other way and hope for the platform? If it had saved him, he would have taken a hit from Ike but Marth was at 4%...he wouldn't have died. But it didn't. Then it chose to save Ike later. P1 would have died, no save, P2 would have died, save. I think they're pretty similar.