Hi, wow someone has half my username.
Anyway this is a fun matchup, the only good Mario I've played is Box7 and that was like twice in offline tournament sets (though one wasn't legit due to brackets being messed up). We're 1-1 in games (not sets), one of us always ended up switching characters 2nd game though. I consider him to be a better player than I (with more impressive tournament results to boot), but I never really felt the same pressure fighting Mario compared to fighting a good Metaknight, Snake or GaW, all of which are at least 70:30 or worse btw...so yeah it's definitely not that. Zelda's a bad character, but not that bad
Mario
Mario can hit Zelda with multiple uairs fairly easily as long as he can get Zelda in the air. It's been stated before but I feel the need to emphasize it. Nair and bair are her fastest aerials but do not cover underneath her which make them useless when under uair assault. Zelda has decent aerial mobility however so it's not impossible for her to get away. Utilt combos and such, but finding an opening to get that close and freely utilt seems tough to do. It's definitely possible if she whiffs a usmash/dsmash but not so much with her fsmash, dtilt, and jab. Basically Mario has a obvious advantage in the air.
Probably one of the best ways to get in close to Zelda on the ground is to use a really fast move like jab. Zelda's fsmash is pretty slow so if you can interrupt it before it goes off then you can setup a combo or whatever. Just watch out for dsmash if you choose to delay any of your moves.
As far as gimping goes, honestly, bairing her during Farore's Wind seems like the easier and more practical thing to do. Gimping isn't the only way to punish Zelda's recovery, Mario can also force her to recover on stage and punish accordingly. Also FLUDD can gimp Zelda using Din's fire as stated before and it's actually pretty scary, especially if Din's is used near the end of the stage.
Zelda
I consider Zelda on the other hand to have a better ground game. She's a nice wall of priority that shines when she is not forced to take the offensive. Dtilt and fsmash in particular are moves I wish to touch up upon.
For damage racking purposes, dtilt at mid percents and later have enough frame advantage to lead into a dsmash and more dtilts. Staled dtilts can lock but can be SDI'd out of fairly easily if the player knows what to do. Moreover, fresh dtilts at high percents pop up chars above her and can lead into kill moves which add more versatility to Zelda's #1 setup move. Mario can try nairing her before she does usmash/utilt if he's sent too high, but I'm pretty sure there's enough hitstun to give Zelda time to shield and punish.
I don't really consider fsmash a kill move but rather more of a spacing tool. It can lead into grabs if staled enough and if the opponent is at low percentages which can make up for the frame disadvantage dtilt has at low percents. It has good range and low ending lag which is godsend for Zelda. Its only real downside is that it is her slowest ground move coming out on frame 16...oh and I guess it can be DI'd out of too but it still puts you in a not so great position.
Other moves like ftilt and jab can setup into other moves at early percents, but they're definitely more situational. She may not be a combo maniac like other characters but racking damage isn't as tough as a lot of people claim it is. Also, if you get gimped by a Zelda then you're doing something wrong, and she doesn't really need to go for a gimp when she can just kill instead.
For Mario, Zelda can't approach and she can't keep you from not approaching.
Zelda wants to be approached, she's a shy girl that suffers from multiple personality disorder.
Fair/Bair shouldnt be your huge problem here, considering Mario's too short to bair OoS. Watch out for a surprise Ftilt kill too at high percentages, its got hax range.
Mario CAN get hit by a bair OoS, he's short but not advantageously short.
I consider ftilt a terrible move at high percents and it really shouldn't be used for killing purposes since she has so many better options.
And since Mario is in the air a lot using his aerials and whatnot (that can extend his hurtbox), it's not exceedingly difficult to wait for a mis-spaced aerial and counter with a bair. Being in the air frequently increases the number of opportunities to hit characters with a short hopped bair which has relatively no landing lag (2 bairs a shorthop is a different story however).
Mario wins this matchup by camping with Fireballs and countering her whiffed approaches with fsmash
Again, Zelda really isn't going to want to approach in this match up or in any other match up for that matter. Also, unless you're frame perfect with your fsmash or Zelda horribly mispaces hers, you won't be able to punish her fsmash with his. Zelda's fsmash has the same amount of cooldown frames as Mario's fsmash's start up.
Don't say range = advantage.
Most of Zelda's attacks have slight to moderate disjointedness which can certainly be a problem for some characters. I'm pretty sure DK's just extend his hurtbox.
I strongly believe this matchup is around even