Success/Popularity stuff. Final update coming later today!

[stingers]

^that...lol. still much better than MK =]

 

[Juushichi]

Not quite. It's more like:

XXXXXXXX - MK
II
XXXXXX - High
XXXX - High-Mid (more like 4 and 1/2 blocks, IMO)
XXX - Mid
I
XX - Low-mid
I
X - Bottom

 

[El Duderino]

stingers You say that now, but time will tell if other growing character abuses will replace that turmoil. It may never equal the trouble MK caused, but it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the Brawl scene is not out of troubled waters yet.

Juushichi the pyramid was referring to how the number of characters fall in terms of balance. My point was cutting the top block does not level the whole foundation.

 

[John12346]

The game's defo. not perfectly balanced with MK removed(although I recognize it was presented jokingly), but at the same time, I'm pretty sure A Tier doesn't really dominate the rest of the game like MK does.

I would say it's somewhere between MK26 and ElDuderino's suggestions... but I'd lean slightly more towards ElDuderino's interpretation than I would the midway point between the two.

 

[El Duderino]

I don't know what's so extreme about suggesting the list structure of having a few top characters, a middle majority, and a few lower duds is going anywhere soon. Or that the US scene, being largely MK dominated, hasn't seen to the same extent of other character abuses... yet.

 

[John12346]

Sorry for the billion edits in the previous post.

I do believe there will be some dominance near the top as you say, but I think that there will also be more than just the Fantastic Four(Marth, Diddy, Snake, Falco) showing dominance in a MK free scene, plus I believe that we may see some sizable successes from those below the dominant characters, y'feel me?

To put it in better terms, I would probably cut off the top TWO rows from your pyramid example as a better representation of what happens in MK's absence. Your idea is on the mark, but I think the overall effect of dominance isn't going to be as heavy as you say.

 

[John12346]

Oh, and here's the update. >___>;

Raw Data

Spoiler

Character
MK: 369.15
Snake: 355
Falco: 177.3
Pit: 46.65
Mario: 31.1
Diddy: 118
Lucario: 53.2
Olimar: 30.4
TLink: 15.2
ICs: 130
GaW: 105
Sonic: 17
R.O.B.: 10
Zamus: 42
Wario: 21

User
MK: 707.4
Snake: 577
Falco: 448.9
Pit: 93.3
Mario: 62.2
Diddy: 194.5
Lucario: 53.2
Olimar: 30.4
TLink: 15.2
ICs: 260
GaW: 210
Sonic: 27
R.O.B.: 10
Zamus: 42
Wario: 21

Player
Ally MK: 279.9
Ally Snake: 279.9
Ally Falco: 279.9
Bloodcross MK: 155.5
Bloodcross Falco: 155.5
Koolaid MK: 93.3
Koolaid Pit: 93.3
Mikeray Snake: 62.2
Mikeray Mario: 62.2
Bizkit Snake: 31.1
Gnes Diddy: 133
Gnes Snake: 133
UltimateRazer Snake: 133
Trela Lucario: 53.2
Denti Olimar: 30.4
Infinity MK: 15.2
Jerm TLink: 15.2
Vinnie ICs: 210
Vinnie GaW: 210
Mew2King MK: 105
Cheese ICs: 50
Cheese MK: 50
Kai Diddy: 20
Kai Sonic: 20
ChiboSempai R.O.B.: 10
Chimpakt Diddy: 10
Zinoto Diddy: 31.5
WTP MK: 13.5
WTP Falco: 13.5
Lee Martin Zamus: 42
JNig Wario: 21
BSP Sonic: 7

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312375
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312357
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312328
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312327
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312331
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.
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30+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
MK: 232.9
Snake: 355
Falco: 171.05
Pit: 46.65
Mario: 31.1
Diddy: 66.5
Lucario: 53.2
Olimar: 30.4
TLink: 15.2

User
MK: 543.9
Snake: 577
Falco: 435.4
Pit: 93.3
Mario: 62.2
Diddy: 133
Lucario: 53.2
Olimar: 30.4
TLink: 15.2

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312375
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312357
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.
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.
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45+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
MK: 217.7
Snake: 155.5
Falco: 171.05
Pit: 46.65
Mario: 31.1

User
MK: 528.7
Snake: 311
Falco: 435.4
Pit: 93.3
Mario: 62.2

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312375
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.
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.
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100+ Entrant Tournaments

N/A
.
.
.
.
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MK Banned Tournaments

Character
Sonic: 51
Fox: 28.5
Link: 8.5

User
Sonic: 51
Fox: 28.5
Link: 8.5

Usage
Sonic: 1
Fox: 3
Link: 1
TLink: 1
Falco: 1
Zamus: 1
DK: 1
Lucas: 1
Dedede: 1
Ike: 2
Lucario: 2
Wolf: 1
Pikachu: 1
Ness: 1

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312326

Normal Tournaments

MK Banned Tournaments

Please remember to Right Click and hit "View Image" on any image that is not large enough to be displayed properly.

 

[El Duderino]

Sorry for the billion edits in the previous post.

That's alright, I edit frequently too. Sometimes it misconstrues things and you just can't help it.

I do believe there will be some dominance near the top as you say, but I think that there will also be more than just the Fantastic Four(Marth, Diddy, Snake, Falco) showing dominance in a MK free scene, plus I believe that we may see some sizable successes from those below the dominant characters, y'feel me?

To put it in better terms, I would probably cut off the top TWO rows from your pyramid example as a better representation of what happens in MK's absence. Your idea is on the mark, but I think the overall effect of dominance isn't going to be as heavy as you say.

That has far more to do with how those top 4 continue to perform than MK's absence. With Meta Knight being such a pressure monster, it's easy to forget that those top few can otherwise fight matches on their terms. Remember MK didn't discriminate, he pushed everyone down, including characters that probably should be taken down a notch. It's also easy to underestimate the impact infinities will have moving forward when MK played a large role in cutting through their window of opportunity.

These are the reasons why this alone cannot creating a broader a range of character success among the rest of the cast. It may appear that way in the short term as people adjust to the changes, but just like any fighting game, the more it matures, the more specific characters start dominating. Brawl will be back to the typical structure in no time.

 

[John12346]

We'll probably have to see how my MK Banned chart unfolds for now and see what happens. Obviously 21 tournies isn't a large enough sample size to be drawing conclusions, so let's be patient for now, I guess?

You feel the metagame will be more Top 4 centralized.
And I feel it will be A/B Tier centralized, with lower tiers showing *some* success.

 

[El Duderino]

Never said that it will be any more top 4 centric, just that the idea that those top 4 will turn into say a top 8 or top 12 level field is wishful thinking. To put it in perspective even without MK, Brawl is not exactly any better with balance than Melee. Still not stopping people from crossing their fingers for a large deviation. That is all it really is, hope that other character match-ups will magically become more even with MK gone. It could happen on its own, but it wont be MK's doing.

 

[MK26]

last post was mostly sarcastic :/

 

[John12346]

Never said that it will be any more top 4 centric, just that the idea that those top 4 will turn into say a top 8 or top 12 level field is wishful thinking.

Ah, I think you misinterpreted what I said. I meant "more" as in "more along the lines of," rather than "even more."

But anyway, let's just see how it goes. Only time will tell, right?

 

[Ghostbone]

Brawl's balance without MK looks to be better than Melee's.

But I could be wrong, we'll have to see how the metagame develops.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

Snake is already making 24% of the money and there have only been 21 tournaments. This percentage is only going to increase when top level Snakes start winning MK banned nationals

 

[Ripple]

Snake is already making 24% of the money and there have only been 21 tournaments. This percentage is only going to increase when top level Snakes start winning MK banned nationals

you need to quit posting in here. in general

 

[C.J.]

Snake is already making 24% of the money and there have only been 21 tournaments. This percentage is only going to increase when top level Snakes start winning MK banned nationals

You're doing that backwards. The fewer tournies there are, the more extreme the percentages of money won is.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

You're doing that backwards. The fewer tournies there are, the more extreme the percentages of money won is.

Not really. You can make more money in one National than you can in a bunch of locals

 

[John12346]

Jebus, starting from the beginning of 2011, MK's "Cash Won(Full Split)" percentage was a sizable 42.8081% after a very low 3 weeks of collection. 10 months later, to the present day, it fell to a modest, but still very large 37.6719%.

I think it's safe to assume that a similar scenario will ultimately end up occurring with Snake in a MK banned metagame.

Also, bad Jebus, you're not supposed to use the "No Split" category, because that is the absolute largest possible amount of money Snake could have possibly won from tournaments. Use the "Average" category of 20.2855%, or the range of "Full Split" to "No Split," which is 16.2983% to 24.2727%.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

Jebus, starting from the beginning of 2011, MK's "Cash Won(Full Split)" percentage was a sizable 42.8081% after a very low 3 weeks of collection. 10 months later, to the present day, it fell to a modest, but still very large 37.6719%.

I think it's safe to assume that a similar scenario will ultimately end up occurring with Snake in a MK banned metagame.

Also, bad Jebus, you're not supposed to use the "No Split" category, because that is the absolute largest possible amount of money Snake could have possibly won from tournaments. Use the "Average" category of 20.2855%, or the range of "Full Split" to "No Split," which is 16.2983% to 24.2727%.

According to most pro bans, no split should be used because the players would not be able to win all the money without that character. I don't see why we can't use it for MK. Even then, 20% average is still a lot. What was the highest average MK reached?

 

[John12346]

Okay, first off, I explained to you why using "Average" or the range between "Full Split" and "No Split" is the way to go in these analyses. C'mon, you even agreed on this point; remember the spinner example I gave you?

Anyway, 20% is not really a lot considering that, during the fourth MK ban debate all those years ago, anti-ban dismissed 30% as not enough dominance...

Also, on a cumulatively collected scale, MK had his highest percentage(for "Average") at 51.0198% right at the second week of 2011 - 1/8/11. As you can see, after all this time, it has decreased to 45.9097%. The cumulative results for dominant characters will generally always decrease from their initial amounts given from a low amount of tournies, and level off to their true values as you collect more and more data.

It happened to MK(although MK retained very large numbers regardless); I'm sure it's going to end up happening to Snake as well.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

Okay, first off, I explained to you why using "Average" or the range between "Full Split" and "No Split" is the way to go in these analyses. C'mon, you even agreed on this point; remember the spinner example I gave you?

Anyway, 20% is not really a lot considering that, during the fourth MK ban debate all those years ago, anti-ban dismissed 30% as not enough dominance...

Also, on a cumulatively collected scale, MK had his highest percentage(for "Average") at 51.0198% right at the second week of 2011 - 1/8/11. As you can see, after all this time, it has decreased to a 45.9097%. The cumulative results for dominant characters will generally always decrease from their initial amounts, and level off to their true values as you collect more and more data.

But he was still banned when his percentage was at 45%. If Snake's average ever reached 45%, would the MK ban be lifted?

 

[John12346]

If Snake, or any other character for that matter, really managed to get their dominance to THAT level, I could see plenty of reason to try and undo the MK ban, for sure.

After all, it would mean that the MK ban did not fix any overcentralization or gameplay problems, but rather caused new ones.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

If Snake, or any other character for that matter, really managed to get their dominance to THAT level, I could see plenty of reason to try and undo the MK ban, for sure.

After all, it would mean that the MK ban did not fix any overcentralization or gameplay problems, but rather caused new ones.

What if two characters, when combined are making a lot more than MK ever did (about 70% average)?

 

[infiniteV115]

Making an argument now about new characters like Snake or Diddy or Marth or Dedede or Yoshi or whoever the hell you think will dominate the metagame with MK gone is useless. We should wait for the MK-banned metagame to take full effect (Jan 9th), observe for a few months and then make a decision about whether or not to legalize MK, because then we can make a case.

Remember, since this ban isn't necessarily permanent, it's kinda like an experiment, since this is the first ban.

 

[ElDominio]

That, or SMJ is just a rabid ragemaker.

 

[Flayl]

What if two characters, when combined are making a lot more than MK ever did (about 70% average)?

Hey we ban a character for being too good compared to everyone else, not because they're approximately as good as another one.

 

[C.J.]

This thread's current topic:
Taking one side of a multifaceted situation and assuming that's the only one that matters.

 

[Kuro~]

A few months? That's not really enough time for an accurate gathering of data. Imo 6-12 months is how long it should wait.

 

[John12346]

Bleh, what a disappointing weekly showing. Here's the update.

Raw Data

Spoiler

Character
MK: 118.3
Dedede: 69
Ike: 54
Snake: 97
Ness: 15.4
Marth: 57.6
Pikachu: 14
Falco: 22.7
Pit: 20
Wario: 20
TLink: 99
Fox: 54
Sheik: 13.5
DK: 13.5
Olimar: 90
ICs: 15
Zamus: 15
Lucario: 15
GaW: 50

User
MK: 186.8
Dedede: 99
Ike: 54
Snake: 105
Ness: 30.8
Marth: 70.2
Pikachu: 14
Falco: 38.2
Pit: 40
Wario: 40
TLink: 99
Fox: 54
Sheik: 27
DK: 27
Olimar: 90
ICs: 45
Zamus: 45
Lucario: 15
GaW: 100

Player
Seibrik MK: 108
Seibrik Dedede: 108
Ryo Ike: 54
MVD Snake: 18
FOW Ness: 25.2
FOW Marth: 25.2
Z Pikachu: 14
SK92 Falco: 11.2
Twinx Ness: 5.6
Twinx MK: 5.6
Fatal Snake: 75
Koolaid Pit: 40
Koolaid Wario: 40
JoeSt MK: 12
JoeSt Snake: 12
JoeSt Falco: 12
MJG TLink: 99
Zeton Fox: 54
Ripple Sheik: 27
Ripple DK: 27
Dabuz Olimar: 90
Vinnie ICs: 45
Vinnie Dedede: 45
Vinnie Zamus: 45
John12346 Lucario: 15
Alphicans GaW: 100
Alphicans MK: 100
KillLock Marth: 45
Fiji MK: 15
Fiji Falco: 15

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312909
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312948
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312843
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312806
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312724
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312741
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.
.
30+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
MK: 54
Dedede: 54
Ike: 54
Snake: 18

User
MK: 108
Dedede: 108
Ike: 54
Snake: 18

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312909
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.
.
45+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
MK: 54
Dedede: 54
Ike: 54
Snake: 18

User
MK: 108
Dedede: 108
Ike: 54
Snake: 18

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312909
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.
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MK Banned Tournaments

Character
Olimar: 54
Sheik: 47.5
ICs: 17.5
Dedede: 2.5
Kirby: 2.5
Diddy: 16

User
Olimar: 84
Sheik: 100
ICs: 40
Dedede: 10
Kirby: 10
Diddy: 16

Usage
Olimar: 2
Sheik: 3
ICs: 3
Dedede: 1
Kirby: 1
Yoshi: 1
Lucario: 1
Falco: 2
Diddy: 2
Snake: 1
Fox: 1
Marth: 1
Mario: 1
TLink: 1

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312769
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=312803

Regular Tournaments

MK Banned Tournaments

Please remember to Right Click and hit "View Image" for any image that is not large enough to be displayed properly.

 

[Ghostbone]

Omg guys, Snake mains players moved up from taking 21% of tournament cash with MK legal to 23% with MK banned.

Totally thriving and taking over the metagame now that MK's gone.

/loledit

 

[John12346]

Just a clarification, "No Split" can be identified as "People who used Character Y won X amount of money." It's for people who used Character Y at all; it doesn't matter if they main Y or not.

As I keep saying, please use "Average" or a range of "Full Split" to "No Split." Snake went from 12%-21% of all tournament money to 16%-23%.

The part about Snake being broken w/o MK is right on, though.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

So how is Snake still winning so much money, popularity? Cause he isn't really as good as Diddy Kong or Falco imo.

 

[Flayl]

Because Snake somehow manages to be the most underrated character in the game.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

Other than Jigglypuff.

 

[Ghostbone]

So how is Snake still winning so much money, popularity? Cause he isn't really as good as Diddy Kong or Falco imo.

Because he actually is that good and people like to pretend that someone Snake is only effective in past metagames when he's just as effective, if not more in the current metagame.

And talking about how bad Snake is is the cool thing to do at the moment, idk people seem to think that the metagame is more advanced somehow than it actually is.

Oh and John I fixed my post

 

[John12346]

Alright, let's get this update done!

Also, this, just so I have reference to proof that shows that not only are the percentages for MK's winnings accurate, but also likely an UNDERESTIMATION of what I actually have set down for him.

Raw Data

Spoiler

Character
Marth: 266
Fox: 123.3
Snake: 118.1
MK: 192.5
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 78.2
Sonic: 9.6
Kirby: 19.8
Zamus: 180.8
Link: 31.3
Mario: 12.1
Wario: 11.5
GaW: 11.5
Diddy: 32.6
DK: 6.6
TLink 6.6
Yoshi: 3.3
Bowser: 30
Ike: 20
Pit: 11.5
Pikachu: 78
ICs: 78

User
Marth: 318
Fox: 126.6
Snake: 274.3
MK: 415.3
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 85.4
Sonic: 9.6
Kirby: 102.2
Zamus: 240.2
Link: 79.2
Mario: 36.3
Wario: 23.1
GaW: 23.1
Diddy: 39.2
DK: 13.2
TLink: 6.6
Yoshi: 6.6
Bowser: 30
Ike: 20
Pit: 23
Pikachu: 156
ICs: 156

Player
MikeHAZE Marth: 240
TKD Fox: 120
Havok Snake: 48
Havok MK: 48
FOW Ness: 24
Tearbear Olimar: 14.4
Tearbear MK: 14.4
Tyrant MK: 14.4
Vicegrip Ness: 9.6
X Sonic: 9.6
Y.b.M. Kirby: 79.2
Y.b.M. Zamus: 79.2
Y.b.M. Link: 79.2
Y.b.M. MK: 79.2
Infern Snake: 36.3
Infern Mario: 36.3
Infern MK: 36.3
Blue Rogue Wario: 23.1
Blue Rogue GaW: 23.1
AlphaZealot Diddy: 13.2
AlphaZealot DK: 13.2
Links24 TLink: 6.6
MX Yoshi: 6.6
MX Fox: 6.6
SkyPirate Olimar: 60
Zigsta Bowser: 30
Bored Ike: 10
AlpacaMan Ike: 10
Dakpo Zamus: 161
69Dude MK: 46
69Dude Snake: 46
??? Pit: 23
??? Kirby: 23
Bizkit Snake: 66
Bizkit MK: 66
TeeVee MK: 33
IcyLight Olimar: 11
ESAM Pikachu: 156
ESAM ICs: 156
Kadaj Snake: 78
Kadaj MK: 78
Kadaj Marth: 78
Player-1 Diddy: 26

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313119
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313091
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313035
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313107
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313073
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313070
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.
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30+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
Marth: 240
Fox: 123.3
Snake: 36.1
MK: 77.5
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 7.2
Sonic: 9.6
Kirby: 19.8
Zamus: 19.8
Link: 19.8
Mario: 12.1
Wario: 11.5
GaW: 11.5
Diddy: 6.6
DK: 6.6
TLink 6.6
Yoshi: 3.3

User
Marth: 240
Fox: 126.6
Snake: 84.3
MK: 192.3
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 14.4
Sonic: 9.6
Kirby: 79.2
Zamus: 79.2
Link: 79.2
Mario: 36.3
Wario: 23.1
GaW: 23.1
Diddy: 13.2
DK: 13.2
TLink: 6.6
Yoshi: 6.6

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313119
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313091
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45+ Entrant Tournaments

Character
Marth: 240
Fox: 120
Snake: 24
MK: 45.6
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 7.2
Sonic: 9.6

User
Marth: 240
Fox: 120
Snake: 48
MK: 76.8
Ness: 33.6
Olimar: 14.4
Sonic: 9.6

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313119
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MK Banned Tournaments

Character
Olimar: 375
GaW: 109.5
ICs: 94.5
Snake: 49.75
Falco: 73.5
Diddy: 54.88
Zamus: 107.25
R.O.B.: 14.25
Marth: 15
Wario: 4.5
Dedede 4.5
TLink: 6
Link: 5.38

User
Olimar: 375
GaW: 234
ICs: 189
Snake: 106
Falco: 129.75
Diddy: 96.25
Zamus: 107.25
R.O.B.: 14.25
Marth: 45
Wario: 18
Dedede: 18
TLink: 12
Link: 10.75

Usage
Olimar: 2
GaW: 7
ICs: 8
Snake: 11
Falco: 16
Diddy: 9
Zamus: 4
R.O.B.: 6
TLink: 5
Dedede: 5
DK: 4
Fox: 5
Luigi: 3
Sonic: 3
Yoshi: 1
Peach: 2
Kirby: 6
Marth: 7
Lucario: 2
Wolf: 2
Wario: 3
Pikachu: 1
Pit: 1
Mario: 3
Falcon: 1
Ness: 1
Link: 2

Tournaments Used
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313154
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313039
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313063
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=313159

Normal Tournaments

MK Banned Tournaments

Please remember to Right Click and hit "View Image" for any image that is not large enough to be displayed properly.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

Marth made almost as much money as MK this week. He even beat him in full split. Also, is 10% usage for Snake too much considering there are still 36 usable characters in the game?

 

[Steam]

Marth made almost as much money as MK this week. He even beat him in full split. Also, is 10% usage for Snake too much considering there are still 36 usable characters in the game?

most people aren't using MK as much anymore in preparation for the full ban.

and 10% is not too much for winnings... not even close.

 

[SaveMeJebus]

most people aren't using MK as much anymore in preparation for the full ban.

and 10% is not too much for winnings... not even close.

10% usage, not winnings

 

[Steam]

10% usage, not winnings

a character earning about 15% of the money with about 10% usage does not bother me at all.