Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Troykv]

Chorus Kids and Karate Joe

They don't feel too different for me; so I'll rate them with the same want and chance score... So...

CH and KJ are characters that represent one of the most popular Nintendo Franchises that doesn't have proper representation (they don't even have a AT or Item in the game); and they definitely would have a quite fun concept for a moveset for the simple fact their games are rhythm based; which would let itself to many weird possibilities; so hey; they definitely have some potential despite I don't be sure what exactly they can do.

What mostly affects them negatively is the overall situation of the Smash DLC being a bit too... unexpected... What exactly would follow Joker is a mystery without a doubt; having mass appeal is definitely something that it's important for the game's DLC. So they're a bit short in this aspect.

Chance: 15%

Want: 50%

As I mentioned, I don't have a lot of experience with RH, so I don't have a proper opinion about it.

____

Prediction:

2B: 17.5% (This will be a WEIRD day xD)

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

GoodGrief741 technically if the edits were done at most an hour after this day started it would not be too late but yeah.

Also my brother just ordered a steak medium well and I am more disappointed than I was with Incineroar.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Karate Joe and Chorus Kids

Chance (both) - 1%

Both of them are already spirits AND aren't third parties, so any chance they do have is pretty dead in the water.

Not to mention, both of them have a ton of competition with one another. Chorus Kids are big in the west, whereas Karate Joe is more popular in Japan. Chorus Kids seemingly have prior consideration, whereas Karate Joe has seniority and more appearances. Each pro for one is essentially a con for the other, and vice versa, to the point where they seemingly balance one another out. There isn't really one clear winner over the other here.

Want (Chorus Kids) - 70%

I absolutely adore the Rhythm Heaven franchise. However, I really don't have much to say about these guys. They showed up somewhat prominently in Rhythm Heaven (DS), but that's just about it. Were it not for the Gematsu and/or Grinch leak, I find it unlikely people would be talking about these guys much. I'd love any Rhythm Heaven character, and these guys are certainly my second pick, but my loyalties lie elsewhere...

Want (Karate Joe) - 100%

As of right now, Karate Joe is by far my most wanted character for Super Smash Brothers.

Like I said, I really do enjoy the Rhythm Heaven series, so I don't really see how anyone else other than the character considered by many to be the primary face of the franchise and the forefront of recent marketing to be anything but my top pick.

The biggest thing people cry against him is how "he's already a fighter, so it would look weird for him to do other things," which I could not disagree more with. Whether it be Kevin Fagaragan's incredible Rhythm Heaven moveset primarily featuring Karate Joe (with a single Chorus Kid on back), or this moveset made up a while ago, detailing all possible smashes, tilts, throws, specials, costumes, and aerials he could have, coming up with a moveset for the guy is anything but hard.

Saying he would just have a moveset consisting of nothing but punches and kicks would be a massive disservice to the Rhythm Heaven series, and is akin to saying that Duck Hunt would have a moveset consisting of nothing but laughter, Captain Falcon would solely fight in the Blue Falcon, Pirahna Plant wouldn't do anything other than move up and down a stationary pipe, etc. Sakurai and his team are incredibly creative, so reducing him down to something already covered by many other fighters in the game really is selling both Karate Joe and the Rhythm Heaven series incredibly short.

However, my real drive behind him is his incredible tunes he's had over the years:

• The absolute groovy funk that is Canary Club's Struck by the Rain, originally appearing in Rhythm Heaven (DS)
• The high paced rock ballad with a wicked guitar solo that is Lonely Storm, originally appearing in Rhythm Heaven Fever
• His father's theme song which ramps the rock up by about twenty, originally appearing in Rhythm Heaven Megamix
• And of course, the corny and iconic lyrics of his first appearance, originally appearing in Rhythm Tengoku (GBA)

This guy has so many good tunes, and it isn't even counting the remixes he's starred in. Remix 10 (DS), Remix 7 (Wii), Remix 9 (Wii), Remix 10 (Wii), Right Hand Remix, and Megamix's Final Remix are all also incredibly fantastic songs that I'd love to have in the game. If it seems like I'm gushing about the music, it is because I blatantly am. Rhythm Heaven's music is phenomenal, and all of Karate Joe's tracks are some of the best.

I understand that which Rhythm Heaven character someone wants really boils down simply to personal preference, considering every single potential character would likely play similarly: as a Rhythm minigame amalgamation. I just feel that Karate Joe would do it best in my book. Plus, he has a cat. Hard to hate someone who could bring a cat along with him. He could show up in his taunts or something. It'd be cute.

Nominations:
Brash the Bear x10

 

[Sid-cada]

The Chorus Kids

Chance - 0.05% - Even if Sakurai planed on them in Smash For, clearly something went wrong and there is no evidence that he has looked back. Combined with how little hype they would seemingly bring, I don't see them as particularly likely.

Want - 35% - Could be cool, and I enjoyed playing The Best Plus. That said, I prefer Karate Joe.


Karate Joe

Chance - 0.1% - Take what I said about Chorus Kids, and place it here. That said, he wasn't directly rejected, and his more mascot-like status I think gives him a small leg up.

Want - 80% - My prefered choice for a Rhythm Heaven character. I think that motions are the most memorable part of any Rhythm Heaven game, at least more so than the objects, so I think a character that can mimic as many motions as possible would represent the series better. I think he can pull it off better than anyone else in the series.


Prediction

2B - 7.56% - I have no idea...


Nominations

Dark Matter x10

 

[SPEN18]

To be clear, I do think Karate Joe could have a great RH moveset, and he wouldn't look out of place doing many different things. However, I'm not convinced that he does it better than the Chorus Kids. I guess I feel that the Chorus Kids are a better fit for the rhythm theme and I love their wacky antics more than Karate Joe. I do, however, like the point made above about the RH movements being memorable.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Pretty cool guy

Chance: 1%
A Spirit he is. Plus after Gematsu and the Grinch I don’t think he’s the front runner for RH anymore. Though he always used to be and you never know with Sakurai, he chose two characters to represent Awakening before its protagonist.

Want: 100%
Just gimme a Rhythm Heaven character. I’m kind of more fond of the Kids, but Joe would be very much hype for me. It’s just an interesting choice no matter what.

Chorki

Chance: 2%
Giving an extra 1% in case Sakurai feels the need to finish the job he started in Smash 4 and the Grinch tipped him over the edge or something, but they are still Spirits. I’m not expecting first parties, and RH is really not the franchise you think of after Joker.

Want: 100%
My preferred pick for RH representation. At this point in time it feels like they were robbed, and the Smash roster will never feel complete without them to me.

Noms Mach RiderX10

2B prediction: 13%

 

[GoodGrief741]

I totally forgot to rate Master Chief yesterday like an idiot. Ah well.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Master Chief pre-Karate Joe/Chorus Kids

Over 200

Arle Nadja x345
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x300
Rhythm Girl x270
Nero Claudius (Fate) x250
Grovyle x214
Hollow Knight x207
Mach Rider x205

200 - 151

Reaper (Overwatch) x200
Concept: More DLC x195
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x195
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x191
Reimu Hakurei x190

150 - 101

Kat & Ana x130
Concept: SNK rep x125
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x120
Professor Hector x119
Sephiroth x115
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Amy Rose x110
Andy (Advance Wars) x105
Dante x105
Ryota Hayami x105
Impa x101
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x101

100 - 51

Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Brash the Bear x100
Monster Hunter x100
Shy Guy x100
Poochy x100
Magikarp x100
Q*Bert x100
Sly Cooper x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Concept: World of Light expansion x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Boss Rush x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Ravio x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Dark Matter x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Porky Minch x71
Concept: Style Savvy rep x60
9-Volt x59
Spyro x52

50 - 25

Creeper x42
Frisk x40
Papyrus x39
Hat Kid x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Amaterasu x10
Earthworm Jim x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Tora and Poppi x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Concept: All DLC will be third-party reaches 300 noms.

Hollow Knight jumps past 200 noms.

Dante, Amy Rose and Ryota Hayami stunt past 100 noms.

Today’s newcomers are Nathan Drake, Concept: World of Light expansion (both with 100 noms), and Tora and Poppi (with 5 noms, guess somebody didn’t get the memo).

CaptainAmerica since you asked, but also to everyone: you get ten noms a day until New Year’s Day, and the same goes for the 100nom Bomb deal.

 

[Awakining]

Chorus Kids / Karate Joe:

Chance: Abstain / Abstain

I try to avoid abstaining when rating characters, but, given that I've neither played a Rhythm Heaven game nor followed speculation for its characters since Smash 4, I don't think I'm qualified to judge these characters' chances. From a purely speculative standpoint, I'd put the Kids at 3.5% and Joe around 1%, but I'm not confident enough in my knowledge to make it official.

Want: 55% / 27.5%

I would be positively receptive to a Rhythm Heaven rep in Smash. If it came down to Joe and the Kids, I would prefer the latter to be included, but I consider both to be fun choices and wouldn't be offended by either of them.

Nominations: Porky x10

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from RH.
2B Prediction: 10%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x10

 

[PeridotGX]

Rhythm Heaven (I'm lumping the two)

Chance: 10%. If we were to get a new 1st Party series, It's probably them. But with 1st parties on the whole unlikely, I have doubts

Want: Abstain. Never played a RH game.

Noms: Grovyle x10

 

[AirMac1]

Abstaining on both

Noms:Concept:Microsoft rep x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on both

Noms:Concept:Microsoft rep x5

Dude you should give it x100. It's a special time on the thread where you can give 100 noms to something that isn't on the noms list. Also noms are doubled until New Year's Day.

 

[AirMac1]

Dude you should give it x100. It's a special time on the thread where you can give 100 noms to something that isn't on the noms list. Also noms are doubled until New Year's Day.

Okay, in that case Concept:Microsoft rep x100 is my new number of noms. Also, can we do this until New Year’s Day?
Edit:If we can do more 100 nom bombs, Concept:WWE wrestler as 4th party rep x100

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Okay, in that case Concept:Microsoft rep x100 is my new number of noms. Also, can we do this until New Year’s Day?
Edit:If we can do more 100 nom bombs, Concept:WWE wrestler as 4th party rep x100

1. Only one 100 bomb

2. Wwe would fall under the greater 4th party rule against specific ratings for fourth parties, and is not allowed.

 

[AirMac1]

1. Only one 100 bomb

2. Wwe would fall under the greater 4th party rule against specific ratings for fourth parties, and is not allowed.

Ok sorry, am I in trouble?

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining, low on time and little internet access today.

Nominations
Hat Kid x10

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Karate Joe: Abstain

Why does anyone want them in Smash:

Chance: 0.1%. I'd be surprised if they were even an AT in Smash 6
Want: 0%. Someone explain to me why they're as popular as they are.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Why does anyone want them in Smash

Go actually take the time to play Rhythm Heaven...

Then, you'll know

 

[Lasatar]

I really don't know anything about their chances, so abstain. However, Karate Joe gets a flat 0% want, and Chorus Kids get a 30% want.

Nominations: Reimu x10

BTW, I'm pretty sure that some of my nominations have been being ignored in previous days.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I really don't know anything about their chances, so abstain. However, Karate Joe gets a flat 0% want, and Chorus Kids get a 30% want.

Nominations: Reimu x10

BTW, I'm pretty sure that some of my nominations have been being ignored in previous days.

Yeah, because you’re not giving enough reasoning.

Like, check this post. You literally give nothing to explain your scores.

 

[Lasatar]

Yeah, because you’re not giving enough reasoning.

Like, check this post. You literally give nothing to explain your scores.

I give reasoning only when I know the character. I don't know the character in this case. I say in the message itself that I'm abstaining. I can abstain and still give a want score, right? And most other people who abstain still nominate characters.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I give reasoning only when I know the character. I don't know the character in this case.

Then your nominations and scores don’t get counted. Them’s the rules.

 

[Lasatar]

Then your nominations and scores don’t get counted. Them’s the rules.

I read the OP. It says that every poster gets noms. I know that chance scores won't be counted without reasoning, but I didn't even give chance scores in the first place. Tell me where the rules state that you can't give noms without reasoning.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I read the OP. It says that every poster gets noms. I know that chance scores won't be counted without reasoning, but I didn't even give chance scores in the first place. Tell me where the rules state that you can't give noms without reasoning.

2. -You're allowed to debate but please no flame wars. Also please refrain from non explanations, as a spirit of debate is encouraged. Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I read the OP. It says that every poster gets noms. I know that chance scores won't be counted without reasoning, but I didn't even give chance scores in the first place. Tell me where the rules state that you can't give noms without reasoning.

You must give 2 sentences for chance score and 2 for want score. If you abstained from chance score, then you have to give 2 sentences of reasoning for your want score.

 

[GoodGrief741]

You must give 2 sentences for chance score and want score. If you abstained from chance score, then you have to give 2 sentences of reasoning for your want score.

Love your new profile pic, where’s it from?

 

[Lasatar]

Eh, whatever. I'm not rating characters I know literally nothing about other than name just to get a few measly noms.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Eh, whatever. I'm not rating characters I know literally nothing about other than name just to get a few measly noms.

That’s fine. You can also abstain and get noms.

 

[Lasatar]

That’s fine. You can also abstain and get noms.

That condradicts everything you just told me. I DID abstain. Need I remind you?

 

[GoodGrief741]

That condradicts everything you just told me. I DID abstain. Need I remind you?

You abstained from chance, but gave scores for want. If you abstain from everything, then you don’t require any reasoning (although it’s still appreciated).

 

[Lasatar]

You abstained from chance, but gave scores for want. If you abstain from everything, then you don’t require any reasoning (although it’s still appreciated).

That doesn't even make any sense. Our Want scores are just something personal and won't be counted towards anything. How does Abstaining from want work anyway? Abstaining is the same as saying you don't want it, which would be more akin to just giving it a want score of 0. Know about it or not, you still want something a certain amount, with less knowledge equalling less attachment equalling less Want.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Love your new profile pic, where’s it from?

I saw it on the thumbnail of an Alpharad video on Banjo getting into Smash. He credited the deviantartist (Blue Paint Sea) in the description, and I used the art as my profile pic. By far the best Banjo art I've seen, and I think it's better than Artsy Omni's art. (which is a rare occurance)

 

[Flyboy]

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 10%
Want: 80%

I'm gonna put them together because let's be honest, any Rhythm Heaven character would fight basically the same with a few variations on tilts and the like. Karate Joe would be cool, though I've never had much love for him or the Chorus Kids, and my most-wanted rep has always easily been the Reporter and Wrestler.

Chance-wise, it's strange that it's a series that consistently gets love in Smash in stuff like Smash Run enemies or Spirits but only two songs and no stage. It's a popular first-party that just... inexplicably isn't in. A rhythm minigame character would be fun, and RH is full of wacky fun that'd translate really well to moveset potential. We don't have any idea of what the fighters pass will be like fully but it will shock me if we don't get at least one new first-party and as RH doesn't have any rep ever, not even in the ATs, I could see Karate Joe or Chorus Kids being in. However, I also believe Spirits deconfirm so I do need to rate them low.

I love RH, though, so I have to say I definitely want them. They're characters with a sense of humor and of course the music they'd bring would be just wonderful. Again, neither are my most-wanted choices for the series, but I wouldn't for a second complain at any rep at all. It's all back to my love of non-traditional fighters, and it marries my love of wacky movesets.

Nominations:
Style Savvy Rep x5
Ryota Hayami x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

I'm putting these two together.

Choir Kiddos and Kung-Fu Bob:

Chance: 1% - I haven't played Rhythm Heaven, but I like the designs especially the Chorus Kids, as well as their Glee Club game. I'm not expecting any 1st-party characters as DLC, however, other than "I can't hold all these Fiyer Emblumz!", Pokemanz, or maybe King Boo.

Want: 100% - I'd be interested in the Chorus Kids and what their moveset could be, though I'd just like them in general. Karate Joe would be cool as well, though I really only care because I like the designs and the stuff in the game in general, mostly the Chorus Kids.

Nominations:

Creeper x5
Ninten x3
Papyrus x2

 

[GoodGrief741]

That doesn't even make any sense. Our Want scores are just something personal and won't be counted towards anything. How does Abstaining from want work anyway? Abstaining is the same as saying you don't want it, which would be more akin to just giving it a want score of 0. Know about it or not, you still want something a certain amount, with less knowledge equalling less attachment equalling less Want.

Want scores are counted, though. Just like chance scores, they are all counted to make the overall Want score for the character.

Abstaining isn’t the same as saying you don’t want the character, it’s just saying you don’t care or know enough to give a rating or you deliberately don’t want to alter the score. For the record, different people rate differently. For some, ‘I don’t want them’ is a 0%, for others it’s a 50%, for others it’s an abstention and for others it’s whatever they want.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

TCT~Phantom Do you know when we are starting 2B's day?

 

[FancySmash]

Throwing Voices and Throwing Fists

Chance for both: 5%
I think people have the right idea rating their chances together. Rhythm Heaven is one of those Nintendo series that's been passed over this time and last time. They're effectively in a similar spot to other wanted first parties who were either Spirits (like both these characters), ATs, or Mii Costumes. Granted, that isn't all too good this time around. The current notion is that all characters in Season 1 DLC is that they'll most likely be all Third Party. However, these guys have the benefit of interpreting the made comments another way. New to the series applies to them, as the closest they've got was maybe considered for Smash 4. The only lasting question now is how surprised would people be to see them? Considering the speculation behind them thanks to Gematsu and the Grinch, that's probably their weakest point.

Want: Abstain
Again, one of those situations where I can't fairly rate them. I have no history with the Rhythm Heaven series, in fact, the only Rhythm Game I've extensively played is... Dedede's Drum Dash. Somehow I don't believe that counts.

Predictions: 2B
I've... got very little knowledge of 2B. I do know she's Square Enix, so that benefits her some. But will she edge out Dragon Quest, or any other Square property? 8%

Nominations:
Professor Hector x3
Q*Bert x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining on RH

Sephiroth x 10

Rate 2B from Nier Automata and predict Merric from Fire Emblem.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

2B
Chance: 0.01
There isn't anything Nier related on any Nintendo system. There also seem to be no plans of Automata coming to the Switch any time soon. I don't see why Nintendo would aprove of a character promoting a game not coming to their platform. You can't really deflect that with Joker as SmT is a thing and a P5 seems likely according to recent rumours. Even if Automata is coming, it would likely too late for it to influence the dlc planning.

Oh yeah, and she's a Square character. The signs are pointing towards a DQ rep but with how stingy Square can be I'm kinda doubting even that.

Want: 0%
I'm pretty sure Nier Automata is great and all but she honestly doesn't deserve it at the moment. Can we please discuss certain characters getting into Smash after they get to appear on Nintendo platforms?

Some FE mage: 0.96%
Hollow Knight x10

 

[Ridrool64]

2B or not 2B, that is the question (way too overdone but... you know)

Chance: 60%. Perhaps no character is closer to the circumstances of Joker than 2B. There is a significant chance, therefore, that we will see her join the battle. A lot of her weaknesses are gone, so we just have to wait and see.

Want: This time, I'm going back to the abstain train. I lack any significant experience with Nier Automata.

Arle Nadja x 5, Sly Cooper x 5. At this point I'm going to let Arle fall to All 3rd Party DLC, it's catching up at an incredible pace. Merric really shouldn't break 0% chance at all, but he will, so I predict a 0.14% chance.