Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

ok?

It means you have to give how many nominations you want. x5, etc. Right now, you're just saying to nominate something, but you get 5 nomination points. You need to use at least one point.

 

[Kotor]

Master Chief

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Well, he's apparently not happening according to that Microsoft employee that's part to Halo. Would he have to be involved in the negotiation process by any chance? He also has the issue of him using guns (are they more sci-fi guns?). Does he use that weird laser blade thing? Among Microsoft characters, the Smash fandom would rather see Banjo & Kazooie get in first. Then they would humor the idea of Steve or Master Chief being added to Smash next.

Japan is not exactly huge on the FPS genre. Neither am I when the craze over FPS games exploded in the mid to late 2000s. The M rated games I was playing the most during that period was Grand Theft Auto. It took Splatoon for Japan to pay attention, and Splatoon being more "cute" probably played a role. Halo is also a Xbox exclusive, which the console does abysmal sales in Japan.

I don't see it happening. Would definitely get a big WTF reaction by everyone if he somehow got added to Smash.

Boss Rush x10

 

[Deleted member]

It means you have to give how many nominations you want. x5, etc. Right now, you're just saying to nominate something, but you get 5 nomination points. You need to use at least one point.

still don't understand it right now, I'm just not going to put a xnumber after beat

 

[Artix]

Master Chief

Chance: 0.5%
I really don't think we're getting a Western third-party character in Smash, especially one with no games released on a Nintendo console. Even Snake, Cloud and Joker had at least one game released on a Nintendo console, so they have more than enough reason to add them in Smash, even if they themselves had no connection to Nintendo. Even then, he still has to compete with other Microsoft characters like Banjo-Kazooie and Steve. When it comes to being a FPS rep, Doomguy kinda beats him on that one due to him being on a Nintendo console and has been around way before Halo. I'm giving him a .5% chance due to surprise factor. He would definitely be unexpected and the internet would literally explode for a couple of weeks after his reveal. Also, he has been recently deconfirmed, so there goes his chances.

Want: 0%
I really don't want any third-party character that never had at least one game released on a Nintendo console and Master Chief is definitely one of those. So unless Halo gets a Switch port (which is highly unlikely), I don't want him in Smash.

Chorus Kids & Karate Joe Prediction: 5.81%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x10

 

[Sid-cada]

Master Chief

Chance - 0% - He was outright said to not be DLC by the developer himself. That's about as clear-cut as you can get.

Want - 20% - Eh, not really interested. I think there are better third parties.


Predictions

Chorus Kids - 2.13% - Not likely...

Karate Joe - 1.56% - Seen as even less likely.


Nominations

Dark Matter X10

 

[Nemuresu]

Chief:
Chance: 0%-Got deconfirmed by that Microsoft guy. Not to mention, I don't think I brought this up before, but there's a reason why I see Steve happening, but not any other Microsoft character: because he's already multiplatform, as in, there's no Halo on Nintendo, and there hasn't been any Banjo or Conker game there for a long time either, that's why. Until that happens, any Microsoft rep (barring Steve) is a 0% to me.
Want: 0%-No interest on shooter characters or him in any fashion. If I were asked about getting a Microsoft character, I'm gonna go with Fulgore (from KI).
Nominations:
All-guests passx5
Dantex5

 

[3DSNinja]

The Spartan Warrior
Chance: 1%: he was said to not be in the game, but it COULD be a way to throw us off the trail. Probs not happening tho.
Want: 75%: I want him a lot. But I would prefer Banjo.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

This nominations update comes with a surprised recommendation to watch Aquaman.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Xurkitree pre-Master Chief

Over 200

Arle Nadja x335
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x295
Rhythm Girl x265
Nero Claudius (Fate) x240
Mach Rider x205
Grovyle x204


200 - 151

Hollow Knight x197
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x191
Reaper (Overwatch) x190
Reimu Hakurei x185
Concept: More DLC x185
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x185

150 - 101


Kat & Ana x130
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x120
Professor Hector x119
Concept: SNK rep x115
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Andy (Advance Wars) x105
Sephiroth x105
Impa x101
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x101

100 - 51


Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Brash the Bear x100
Monster Hunter x100
Shy Guy x100
Dante x100
Poochy x100
Amy Rose x100
Magikarp x100
Ryota Hayami x100
Q*Bert x100
Sly Cooper x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Concept: Boss Rush x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Ravio x85
Dark Matter x80
Porky Minch x71
9-Volt x59
Concept: Style Savvy rep x55
Spyro x52

50 - 25

Creeper x42
Frisk x40
Papyrus x39
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Hat Kid x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Amaterasu x10
Earthworm Jim x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Mach Rider and Grovyle ride together past 200 noms.

Maxwell, Arthas Menethil and Sephiroth cross 100 noms.

Spyro flies past 50 noms.

Today’s newcomers are, with 100 noms each: Amy Rose, Magikarp, Ryota Hayami, Q*Bert, Sly Cooper, Cranky Kong, and Vaati.

WaddleMatt Sorry, but we’re not allowing ATs or Pokeball Pokémon currently.

still don't understand it right now, I'm just not going to put a xnumber after beat

Then I guess I’m just not going to count them.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Pretty cool guy, eh kills aliens and doesn't afraid of anything
Chance: 0%
Just because Joker made it in does not mean any character that has little to nothing to do with Nintendo has had their chances skyrocketed. Atleast the Persona Q series exists and Persona in general is supposed to be a spinoff series of SMT, which actually is prominent on Nintendo platforms. Master Chief has a Minecraft skin and a rumoured cancelled DS game, that's it. We might as well be rating Kratos. Yeah, I know that Xbox and Nintendo have been on good terms lately but I think that will only just stick to crossplay. They're still competitors. Unless we see Mario officially overlap on a Xbox console, I don't see Chief in Smash.

Joker also had a bit of bias going for him, as Sakurai is a huge fan of P5. I don't think we know his stance on the Halo series. Heck, that series and the Xbox brand in general is very unpopular in Japan. This is why Steve and Banjo are such big competition.

Want: 0%
Never owned an Xbox system and the Halo series doesn't really interest me. Characters like this don't really belong in Smash imo.

Chorus Kids: 16.15%
Karate Joe: 9.23%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[shocktarts17]

Master Chief
Chance: 0%
Pretty much the same as everyone else, deconfirmed by dev team. I still think even before that his chances weren't good.

Want: 1%
Okay this was going to be zero but some of you guys have convinced me that Halo being in Smash wouldn't be the absolutely worst thing in the world. That said I still don't really like the idea of characters with no history or ties to Nintendo showing up in their crossover, if Microsoft wants to see their characters in a platforming fighter they can make one like Sony did. If people want Master Chief for his moveset then at least pick someone who has been on a Nintendo console before (I'm not counting a skin on Minecraft), like Doomguy.

Prediction: 12% for both
Nominations: Ravio x10

Today’s newcomers are, with 100 noms each: Amy Rose, Magikarp, Ryota Hayami, Q*Bert, Sly Cooper, Cranky Kong, and Vaati.

Hey I'm not seeing Rabbid there, did my nominations not get counted?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Master Chief
Chance: 0%
Pretty much the same as everyone else, deconfirmed by dev team. I still think even before that his chances weren't good.

Want: 1%
Okay this was going to be zero but some of you guys have convinced me that Halo being in Smash wouldn't be the absolutely worst thing in the world. That said I still don't really like the idea of characters with no history or ties to Nintendo showing up in their crossover, if Microsoft wants to see their characters in a platforming fighter they can make one like Sony did. If people want Master Chief for his moveset then at least pick someone who has been on a Nintendo console before (I'm not counting a skin on Minecraft), like Doomguy.

Prediction: 12% for both
Nominations: Ravio x10


Hey I'm not seeing Rabbid there, did my nominations not get counted?

You only gave 3 sentences of reasoning yesterday, so no.

 

[PeridotGX]

Phenomenal Leader

Chance: 0%. He was disconfirmed. What more is there to say?

Want: Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x10

 

[shocktarts17]

You only gave 3 sentences of reasoning yesterday, so no.

lol well crap, my bad.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Tbh I was considering since it was my birthday doing something more on my wanted list, but I didn’t.

Chief
0% Chance
0% Want

Chief was outright deconfirmed by the folks at 343. While they might not have been too much in the know , I assume they would be. They are the ones who work on Halo. I usually take word like his at face value but here I feel it’s a death knell

I don’t want Chief for a few reasons. First, Banjo. Honestly he’s one of my most wanted and I feel he is a realistic choice right now. Second and perhaps more importantly, Chief feels like jumping the shark. He’s a guest character that is so ridiculous that I can not get behind him. It does not feel right.

Sephiroth x 10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tbh I was considering since it was my birthday doing something more on my wanted list, but I didn’t.

Chief
0% Chance
0% Want

Chief was outright deconfirmed by the folks at 343. While they might not have been too much in the know , I assume they would be. They are the ones who work on Halo. I usually take word like his at face value but here I feel it’s a death knell

I don’t want Chief for a few reasons. First, Banjo. Honestly he’s one of my most wanted and I feel he is a realistic choice right now. Second and perhaps more importantly, Chief feels like jumping the shark. He’s a guest character that is so ridiculous that I can not get behind him. It does not feel right.

Sephiroth x 10

Happy birthday!

 

[newsuperhackboys]

Master Chief
15% Chance:
Being a Microsoft Representative, it would be a huger pain. I've heard of some "disconfirmation" (not a word guys), but I could give the benefit of the doubt and assume they are just saying that because he isn't in the game right now. Though that only adds to him being less likely to be in the game.
00% Want:
I'm not a big Halo fan anyway, so meh.

 

[RileyXY1]

Master Chief

Chance: None
This is the rating I give to a character if they are outright disconfirmed. And, Master Chief is one of those characters. He was outright said to not be in by a 343 member. He's also owned by a competitor in the Console Wars and faces competition from Doomguy and other Microsoft characters.

Want: 0%
Although I like FPSes, I am not into Halo. I've never played an XBox, so I don't have any experience with Halo.

Nominate: Amy Rose x10

 

[DaUsername]

Halo
Chance: 0%
It's been confirmed he won't be in. Why is anyone rating this higher than 0%?
Want: 0%
I think Halo is a pretty cool guy. But him getting in would ruin Banjo & Kazooie's chances, and I'd rather have them instead.

Chorus prediction: 15%
Joe prediction: 10%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Today we got a new rating for Rhythm Heaven, the two candidates that people told me to put on the schedule. I was considering Rhythm Girl, but I feel that a triple rating today would be meh. On one hand we got Karate Joe, the most recurring minigame in the series. On the other hand, we got a relic of Gematsu, the Chorus Kids. Both have spirits in the game. Rate them both in chance and want.


Time to predict a name I have been seeing tossed around a bit. 2B was a big star last year, similar to Joker. Nier Automata was a big game last year, similar to P5. Could she be our next Square rep? Predict 2B.

 

[shocktarts17]

Chorus Kids
Chance: 10%
Want: 35%
Karate Joe
Chance: 5%
Want 30%

I think for these we're back to familiar "spirits deconfirm" territory which keeps their chances super low. Chorus Kids are slightly higher if only because the supposed leak/datamine/mind reading that said Sakurai considered them for one of the previous games.

I really know nothing about the game other than what I briefly looked into during the Grinch leak. I wouldn't be upset to see them and I suppose they could bring something unique to the table but I have others I'd rather see first.

Prediction: 2B 8% (tomorrow is going to be an exciting day for debate lol)
Nomination: Ravio x10

Hey GoodGrief741 if I add more to my lacking write up for the tree, would my nominations count then or is it too late? (I totally get if its too late I just figure I'd ask)

 

[Deleted member]

Chorus Kids:
Chance: 5%, Iconic in the series, maybe. But so is Karate Joe, and Karate Joe actually may have a potential moveset.
Want: 0%, couldn't care less about them. Never played Rhythm Heaven, and don't plan to.

Karate Joe:
Chance: 25%, Rhythm Heaven would be a new series yes. bBt Sakurai wants to please people (Don't take that another way!!) as much as he can, and Karate Joe wouldn't be that exciting, but be unique to smash, still wouldn't
Want: >1%, still would be better than Chorus Kids. But I don't care about Rhythm Heaven that much.

Prediction: 2B: 15%, Sakurai listens to his fans, and loads of fans want 2B, so just maybe. However, just don't really see it, I don't know why, but I don't see it happening.
Nomination: Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
(I think that I can do that, still new and don't know the nomination system well)

 

[Sari]

Chorus Kids

Chance: 10%
Hacking into SSB4's files shows that a Rhythm Heaven character was planned to be in the game. Based on the accuracy of the Gematsu leak I think it's safe to say that it would've been the Chorus Kids (which is also the only character from the leak not playable yet). Rhythm Heaven is also a pretty big Nintendo series that surprisingly does not have a playable rep yet. Despite this I just can't see us getting a Rhythm Heaven character as DLC; it seems like something you'd expect in the base game. Dixie Kong and Toon Zelda were planned to be playable in Brawl and have yet to be playable, so it shows that Sakurai doesn't always go back on past ideas. I have also been slowly hopping onto the spirits deconfirm fighters train, at least for first parties.

Want: 60%
The Rhythm Heaven series is long overdue for a character + stage. I think that Chorus Kids would be the best pick for a playable rep as I can see them utilizing beat-based combos and generally representing various kinds of Rhythm Heaven minigames.

-----

Karate Joe

Chance: 5%
Same deal with Chorus Kids except not as popular. Has one advantage in that he's been around longer but otherwise Chorus Kids would probably be chosen over him should Rhythm Heaven ever get a character.

Want: 5%
If we were to get a Rhythm Heaven rep I'd much prefer Chorus Kids. Karate Joe just doesn't interest me and I feel that the Chorus Kids would have much more to offer.

-----

2B chance prediction: 13.64%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x10

 

[shocktarts17]

(I think that I can do that, still new and don't know the nomination system well)

You gotta make sure you have at least two sentences in both want and chance for each character in order for your nominations to count.

 

[Deleted member]

You gotta make sure you have at least two sentences in both want and chance for each character in order for your nominations to count.

How about now, does my nominations now count?

 

[shocktarts17]

How about now, does my nominations now count?

Yeah but you don't need to add anything for your prediction if you don't want to, it doesn't need two sentences.

 

[WaddleMatt]

I was considering Rhythm Girl

Oh,

You know it is coming.

Anyway lets rate the lesser other Rhythm Heaven characters which people have been speculating...

Chorus Kids:

Chance - 10%

Yea, I'm not expecting RH in general unfortunatley and its been a little while in general since we saw anything RH but the Chorus Kids seem to be pretty popular among its fanbase and they are now the only Gematsu leak character(s) not in the game. Now, it is very probable that the Gematsu leak was real and these guys didn't make it in for a similar reason I imagine the Ice Climbers got cut. But with Nintendo picking the DLC, I don't think RH is on their agenda and anyway Sakurai doesn't always go back to his older ideas like with Dixie Kong in Brawl.

Want - 20%

They would be my second choice for a RH rep, they would definitley have an interesting moveset with Rhythm gimmicks (however I'm certain any RH character would have this) but I do see them as competition with my most wanted RH rep plus I have bad things to say about Glee Club. All in all though, just getting more RH content would be amazing, Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun both should most definitley have a character at this point.

Karate Joe:

Chance - 2%

Yea you could say he is just as iconic but I don't see it happening at all really. Chorus Kids are way more likely partly due to them being cut last time and partly due to them being more popular. I can't really say much more here so....

Want - 1%

I really don't want Karate Joe as the RH rep, as someone who enjoys the RH games I'm going to say now that Karate Joe is a boring choice. Out of all these wacky characters why would you choose the one that is already a fighter? Chorus Kids can use their voice and Rhythm Girl could have a really awesome moveset around timing dance moves (you are all gonna love it when its her day). Once again I also see him as competition and in general there is much better choices. But hey, RH representation is RH representation right?

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x10

How fitting is that?

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah but you don't need to add anything for your prediction if you don't want to, it doesn't need two sentences.

k, thanks for your help!

 

[RealPokeFan11]

POT PUNCHER
SINGING VAMPIRES
Chance (BOTH) 35%
Want (BOTH) 50%

Dammit Grinch Leak! Thinking about it more and more makes me want it to be real all over again! Chorus Kids were the characters that had the least impact on me from said leak, but dammit it had Banjo, Geno, and Isaac! Chorus Kids along with Karate Joe come from a game called Rhythm Heaven. As you guessed, it's a game all about rhythm and music! These 2 characters don't have huge moveset potential to be honest, but Joe can use some standard karate moves to make up for that. He also punches pots. A lot. Chorus Kids mostly sing in their game Glee Club, but they are an interesting case excluding the Grinch Leak. (dammit!) They were actually once planned for Smash 4, but were scrapped for unknown reasons. It could've been the 3DS being unable to handle 4 3-in-1 characters on the screen at once, or it could've been moveset issues. Either way, Rhythm Heaven is still unrepresented with a playable character, and Reggie did say to expect characters from new series for DLC. So they're some of the very few first party reps left for contention for DLC. However, I do feel indifferent about these characters. Either their movesets would be lacking, or it's because I've never played a Rhythm Heaven game in my life. Who knows? If either one gets in, fine by me.

Magikarp x9
Reaper x1

2B prediction: 31.47%
I gotta let NineS know tomorrow...

 

[Icedragonadam]

Rhythm Heaven Characters

Chance: 1%

-They made much more sense as base characters which is too late now.
-They're simply C-tier 1st party characters at best and aren't appealing for DLC at all.

Want: 0%

-I wouldn't mind them for base roster.
-But for DLC, I'm looking forward to new guest characters instead.

2B or not 2B Prediction: 9.77%

Nominate All DLC are 3rd parties x10

 

[Door Key Pig]

Did Rhythm Heaven have much of a fanbase in Japan at least orrr what?? Can someone find out for me?

 

[Ridrool64]

Both (I don't have unique words for either of them).

Chance: 5%. It seems like Rhythm Heaven will not be joining the fight. Above all else, it wouldn't sell all that hotly as it's decently niche.

Want: 10%. I don't care about Rhythm Heaven, but a new series always should at least have a try. And hey, maybe they'd be fun.

Arle Nadja x 10/5, 2B has a 27.29% coming her way because she is basically, as far as Smash creditentials go, Female Joker.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The bois
Chance: 20%
They were planned for Sm4sh but scrapped likely due to 3ds limitations. They also likely didn't make it into ultimate's base roster just by simply being out prioritized. With the RH content in this game being suprisingly small this might be hinting at a pack that expands on all that content. Unfortunately, being a spirit puts anyone in a tough position and RH might be a little too niche to sell at a satisfying profit for Nintendo, although they do fit the suprise factor.

Want: 95%
Rhythm heaven is so fun. A character would greatly do the series justice. These guys were honestly the only characters in the grinch leak I was excited for.

Joe
Chance: 5%
Popular in Japan and is not lesser of a face of the franchise than the kids, but I think Sakurai would go for the Chorus kids as they likely represent the series better. They were already planned for Sm4sh, I don't see Sakurai changing his mind on that.

Want: 85%
I'd honestly be fine with any RH character in the game. Still, I prefer the Glee club as they probably have more potential for a creative moveset and they just look funnier to me.

2B: 6.37%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Spoiler: Chorus Kids

Chorus Kids

Chance 20%

Rhythm Heaven has had a strange history with Smash... A character icon for it was supposedly found in Smash 4's data, And it was one of only two series without a character in Smash 4 to get an enemy in Smash Run, with the Sneaky Spirits (the other being Ice Climber). That's not even mentioning it being the non character represented franchise with the most Spirits in Smash Ultimate. So already, it seems that there's this strange love for RH... And it's most likely the case, as Sakurai has stated before that he's a fan of the series. But he isn't picking the DLC, Nintendo is, and would they want a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash?

Maybe. You see, Rhythm Heaven is big in Japan, but not the west. It does so poorly here, that the most recent game in the series, Rhythm Heaven Megamix, got a digital only release in North America despite also having a physical release in the rest of the world. I could very well see Nintendo wanting to spread awareness of Rhythm Heaven by putting a character in there.

However, I don't think it'll be the Chorus Kids.
They aren't really the mascots of the series, and them being a three-in-one character could cause some technical issues. Also, they're in some competition with other RH characters for the slot..


Want 97%

Rhythm Heaven is among my all-time favorite Nintendo franchises, and a character from the series is my #1 most wanted character. However, Chorus Kids aren't quite my first choice...
I feel like characters like the Rhythm Girl or the Reporter could represent the series better. That being said, I'll still be very excited if they make it in...

Spoiler: Karate Joe

[Karate Joe

Chance 25%

I will say that Karate Joe has a leg up against the Chorus Kids, mostly because of him being more of the Rhythm Heaven series mascot.

However, I'm one of those people that say that Spirits deconfirm characters, and assuming Karate Joe is confirmed to be a Spirit, I don't think he's very likely...


Want 80%

Out of all the Rhythm Heaven characters, he's the one I want the least, as he'd just be punching and Kicking and wouldn't be a good representation of the series. Thay being said, he'd still be representing one of my favorite gaming franchises, so I'd be fine with that..

Prediction: 2B 9%

I was considering Rhythm Girl

Alright, then...
Nomination: Rhythm Girl x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Chorus Kids/Karate Joe

Chance: 10 - Feel like neither are the type of characters Nintendo is looking for to be DLC. Their series is the biggest to not be included in the base roster I believe, but I don't either would be big enough to sell content. Base roster was their best chance in my opinion, and with the Grinch leak being fake that chance is now gone.

Abstaining from want because I don't know much about these characters because I hadn't even heard of the series before I starting following along with smash roster speculation

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x 10

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Gematsu's Revenge

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

I'll rate both of these together, since the whole "Rhythm Heaven" series could have any one of a number of interchangeable characters.

Each character in RH is just another excuse for a minigame to happen, very much like the Warioware crowd. Still, it is a huge series, so it does seem horrifically underrepresented with only three songs and a handful of Spirits. The only issue is how that representation is best gotten.

Any character would have to end up pulling a Game and Watch in the first place - no one RH character has enough for a full moveset without reaching into the other games to get some specials. GnW is also taking the 2D-character-without-smooth-motion slot, so there would be a loss of uniqueness there. Also, there are very few minigames consistent across the series, and therefore there are few consistent characters. I've only played the Wii version, and the Chorus Kids weren't in that.

Not to mention that both of these options are spirits in the first place, and it's looking more and more like Spirits are a no go for promotions.

Yes, they're on everyone's mind for the past few years because of Gematsu, and that did have some truth. But the CKs were probably scrapped very early in development since Sakurai couldn't figure out how to get them to dance in his head, and he never considered them high enough priority to revisit either.

Now if I were to be the director of the game, I'd have ensured that RH got some representation...as a stage. There are a lot of catchy tunes, and a rhythm-based minigame stage like WarioWare could be a lot of fun. But a character? What could the gimmick be, push a button in a certain rhythm to power up attacks? Gee, and you thought that Falcon Punch was predictable and competitively useless since it's too easily telegraphed. Take that away, and all you've got an a bunch of random minigame items being spontaneously generated.

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[3DSNinja]

The Gematsu's Leaks Trio
Chance: 25%: They were cut from Sm4sh, which does give them a leg up. But IDK, they proabablt won't happen.
Want: 75: They look cool. Plus I LOVE partner style chars.
Joe Smith:
Chance: 20%: He wouldn't have as much potential. But he is the mascot of the franchise so IDK.
Want: 50%: He looks kinda lame. But Rhythym Heaven would be great in Smash Ultimate.
Nominations:
Hollow Knight x10

 

[Tubby_Squirrel]

So The Chorus Kids and Karate Joe?

Lets go with Joe first.

Chance: 4% - I don't think this series is likely to get a fighter as DLC. Joe in particular is rather generic looking and not an iconic figure outside of RH fans. I don't think Nintendo would sell enough of his DLC ticket when that slot could go to a character that would make more money.

Want: 1% - Some of the same reson as above in that I feel Joe is a very generic looking character. I've never played RH so this isn't completely fair, but I would not complain if he was DLC.

Now then, for Chorus Kids.
Chance: 5% - I feel like their uniqueness gives the character an ever so slightly higher chance than Joe. Move set is a non-issue imo as we have a move set for a plant and a character who never left his car in the games.

Want: 15% - I like the idea of a potentially musical fighter, like if you're comboing someone it would be cool if they sang in harmony. More importainly to me these characters are very non-human looking and I would prefer if all four remaining DLC fighters were non-human looking characters to keep the roster wild and whimsical.

I would like to nominate Kamek, the Magi-Koopa!

 

[Nemuresu]

Chorus Men & Karate Joe (Imma rate both simultaneously):
Chance: 1%-I honestly think these characters' chance was in the base roster. I really do come to think they're not the kind of material for DLC stuff, more so if Nintendo wants them to be desirable for people to buy. Granted they may think so, not to mention that we don't have a Rhythm Heaven stage and barely any music tracks (I think?).
Want: 0%-Didn't have that much interest on anything from this series, not even in the soundtrack. I'm neutral on them appearing, but at least the other characters were I took that stance have at least something more special to them than just coming from a b-tier Nintendo franchise.
Nominations:
All-guests passx5
Dantex5

 

[SPEN18]

Chorus Kids

Chance: 3%
Well, RH is probably the most likely unrepped Nintendo franchise to be added alongside Golden Sun. But besides being first or second in line for new franchises, they don't have much else. Although they were almost certainly planned for 4, we've seen that cut characters don't necessarily get added in the next game; this does, however, make them more likely than Karate Joe. No RH rep in particular got huge ballot support, but I feel that the Chorus Kids would be the choice for a RH rep. Still, though, things look pretty bad in general for unrepped first party franchises given Joker's reveal and the emphasis on marketing during DLC period, which is a shame.

Want: 70%
I don't have much experience with RH, but I actually really like these guys and I think they probably deserve a spot. I really like how they could pull from all the wacky stuff from RH for their moveset with a possible rhythm mechanic. RH is probably also an important enough Nintendo series to be repped in Smash.

Karate Joe
Chance: 1%
Pretty much all the things going against the Chorus Kids also go against Karate Joe. Things look bad for unrepped first party franchises with Joker being revealed and the direction of DLC seemingly being towards big-name third party crossovers. And on top of this, Karate Joe I feel would be overshadowed by the Chorus Kids in character selection, due to the Chorus Kids being more generic characters who would look better performing moves based on various RH minigames besides their own.

Want: 10%
I wouldn't mind him being the RH rep at all, but I like the Chorus Kids a lot better. They're more emblematic of the series as a whole since, after all, they are singers and therefore are a better fit for the rhythm theme. But again, if he was picked as the RH rep I wouldn't mind.

Noms: Andy x5

Edit: grammar

 

[GoodGrief741]

Master Chief
15% Chance:
Being a Microsoft Representative, it would be a huger pain. I've heard of some "disconfirmation" (not a word guys), but I could give the benefit of the doubt and assume they are just saying that because he isn't in the game right now. Though that only adds to him being less likely to be in the game.
00% Want:
I'm not a big Halo fan anyway, so meh.

Chorus Kids
Chance: 10%
Want: 35%
Karate Joe
Chance: 5%
Want 30%

I think for these we're back to familiar "spirits deconfirm" territory which keeps their chances super low. Chorus Kids are slightly higher if only because the supposed leak/datamine/mind reading that said Sakurai considered them for one of the previous games.

I really know nothing about the game other than what I briefly looked into during the Grinch leak. I wouldn't be upset to see them and I suppose they could bring something unique to the table but I have others I'd rather see first.

Prediction: 2B 8% (tomorrow is going to be an exciting day for debate lol)
Nomination: Ravio x10

Hey GoodGrief741 if I add more to my lacking write up for the tree, would my nominations count then or is it too late? (I totally get if its too late I just figure I'd ask)

It is indeed too late, no harm in asking.

Chorus Kids:
Chance: 5%, Iconic in the series, maybe. But so is Karate Joe, and Karate Joe actually may have a potential moveset.
Want: 0%, couldn't care less about them. Never played Rhythm Heaven, and don't plan to.

Karate Joe:
Chance: 25%, Rhythm Heaven would be a new series yes. bBt Sakurai wants to please people (Don't take that another way!!) as much as he can, and Karate Joe wouldn't be that exciting, but be unique to smash, still wouldn't
Want: >1%, still would be better than Chorus Kids. But I don't care about Rhythm Heaven that much.

Prediction: 2B: 15%, Sakurai listens to his fans, and loads of fans want 2B, so just maybe. However, just don't really see it, I don't know why, but I don't see it happening.
Nomination: Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
(I think that I can do that, still new and don't know the nomination system well)

>Never played the game
>’They don’t have moveset potential’