Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Abstain, never actually played the Cooking Mama games. . .
nominations: Peppino x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Second F-Zero rep pre-Cooking Mama

[Rerate] Monokuma x210
Qbby x205
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x185
[Rerate] Neku x179
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x172
Crazy Dave x165
Worms x155

150 - 101

John Marston x150
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x135
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x130
Concept: Among Us character x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x103

100 - 51

Stage: Bowser's Castle x96
Riptor x95
Marina Liteyears x95
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Giygas x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Junpei (Zero Escape) x63
Echo (Bowser) x60
Concept: Far Cry rep x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Henry Stickmin x55

50 - 25

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x47
Tetra x45
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x45
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x35
Ryza (Atelier) x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x20
Mii Costume: Madeline x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x19
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Stage: Tetris x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Senator Armstrong x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
Firebrand x1

Qbby collects over 200 noms. Neku shifts back to 4th place, taking it back from Concept: League of Legends rep.

Mii Costume: Alex Kidd jumps past 100 noms.

Concept: Far Cry rep and Henry Stickmin venture past 50 noms.

Joining the noms list today we have the concept KOS-MOS with T-elos alt, 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played Cooking Mama.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Me preparing to quote Gordon Ramsay for days once Cooking Mama gets confirmed for Smash:

Chance: 1%
She's a character that's past her prime. The hits she had during the DS/Wii era would have only benefited her in previous Smash titles. At this point, there's been such an influx of other successful third-party IPs with heavy involvement on Nintendo systems that she's kinda faded into semi-obscurity.
Want: 100%
I love the idea of a fighter whose combat revolves around the culinary arts. I didn't even care for the game itself when I played it. I just think she'd stand out in all the right ways in Smash Bros.

Nominations: Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x5

 

[Deleted member]

Cooking Mama

Chance: 8%

Cooking Mama is a pretty iconic staple of handheld games. They aren't perfect by any means, but it's casual fun for everybody kinda like how Smash is meant to be a party game. She'd also be the only character with a gimmick around cooking. By that logic, Cooking Mama essentially has everything going for her.

Well, not really everything. The hardest thing to think about is whether if Nintendo wants Cooking Mama in Smash or not. They're far removed from the handheld era pre-Switch nowadays, and it's not really like Cooking Mama Ltd is a studio that has much of a relationship with Nintendo outside of publishing their games to their systems. At least Microsoft had the advantage of holding 2 characters that fill a specific role for Nintendo to gain interest in (BK for being a character a great amount of people vocally wanted in Smash and Steve for being from a incredibly huge game that people also wanted in Smash). I can't really sit here and say Cooking Mama has the upper hand on a lot of other titles because the only things that she has going for her is being a character people recognize and having games available on mainly Nintendo platforms. Neither can I say she has no chance at all because of those reasons as well and moveset potential. 8% is about as much as I can give her since I doubt whatever went on with Cookstar would've affected Nintendo's view on the series since negotiations for Vol 2 were probably finished long before that game came out.

Want: 60%

She used to be 1 of those pipe dream characters for me because she looks the most unique out of all the female Smash characters and would be like an even more popular Isabelle. Unfortunately, the circumstances around Cookstar have cooled my interests in seeing her in Smash because of how much of a mess it all feels from blockchaining to overheating Switches to the legality of the game even being released. Even though 1 bad game doesn't usually dissuade me from wanting characters, it just doesn't feel like the timing is right for Cooking Mama. I'd still be down for her in Smash, but currently, she doesn't really feel like a character I really want now. Maybe I'll get back on the Cooking Mama train as time goes by.
-------------------
Prediction:
SHADOW IS A ***** *** ************ - 23%
Chuns - 40%
-------------------
Noms:
A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Don-chan
11.23% Chance - 47.50% Want
The winner of predictions is DaUsername with a precise 11.00%

Sephiroth satisfaction
91.53%
Sephiroth has the highest satisfaction score for all DLC, beating Terry's 84.39% and Stage Builder's 85.25%! And by quite a lot. Will anyone even come close to challenging the One-Winged Angel?

T-Rex Runner
0.14% Chance - 15.36% Want
T-Rex Runner is the fourth least likely character overall, and the least likely third party. No surprises here.
I guess most of you were busy playing the Sephiroth Challenge that day, because you forgot to predict this guy! There were a couple of predictions, but there's so few of them I think it doesn't make sense for anyone to win extra noms for this day.

Concept: Second F-Zero rep
1.43% Chance - 51.00% Want
The winner of predictions is Jomosensual with 11.32%
This concept earns the dubious honor of being the third least likely concept.

Extra noms list

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 10
DanganZilla5 10
DaUsername 102
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 83
Icedragonadam 5
Inue Houji 20
Jomosensual 5
Lyncario 5
Mr. MR 65
NintenRob 55
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 54
WeirdChillFever 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Flyboy]

Cooking Mama
Chance: 10%
So, Cooking Mama is great! Look, what can I say, I love that era of weird little DS games. I love Trauma Center, Another Code, Hotel Dusk, Style Savvy, Professor Layton, Ace Attorney...and Cooking Mama once stood with those greats-and-obscure-but-still-greats! I have no doubt that if Smash was this big during the DS's heyday we would see Mama, right there with at least a few characters from those other series'. Nowadays, however, it's much harder... The Cooking Mama license has been handed out willy-nilly and the latest release had so much strange controversy and the parent companies shutting it down, rights issues...a whole mess. Which is a shame. I don't think the controversy would have stopped Nintendo from picking Mama if she was in the cards, but I do think that that really did stymie any possibility of a series revival. Such a shame... Still, I'll give her 10% because she once was an icon and is still very loved and recognizable, even if she's hardly on the top of anyone's lists right now.

Want: 90%
As mentioned, I hold a very soft spot for that entire era of strange, cute, spooky, and experimental titles! I'll take EBA and Touch Detective and what-have-you over many other titles from the modern day. But more than that, I love non-combatants in combat situations. I wanna see a housewife and chef beat up Mario with a rolling pin! I want a fun, cool moveset based around combining ingredients and precision movements to power up your attacks. I'd love to see a stage that's a bright, cutesy kitchen. There's so much fun to be had with an offbeat pick like Mama, and at the end of the day that's what I love most about Smash - I love fun and I love things that make me smile.

Nominations: Marina Liteyears x10

 

[Inue Houji]

Cooking Mama
Chance: 0%
The only other "casual" game that's gotten in is Wii Fit, and those games were a phenomenon. Cooking Mama is nowhere near that, and the games have also dampened off lately. They don't have requests on their side either, nor does it have the benefit of being a 1st party property.

Want: Abstain
Never played the games, the only place I know them from is this board and that speedrun video that was trending a while ago.

Predictions
Eggman: 19.7%
Chun-Li: 26.3%

Nominations
Beat x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Hey Chef!

Chance: 5%

Cooking Mama's series is primarily on Nintendo's systems and there was a game released on the Switch before being pulled for unknown legal reasons. Other than those, there is not much in her favor. She has some requests, but not nearly enough to put her even close to the big dogs. It is a beloved series from the DS era but I'm not sure if its demographic would care about Smash even if she was included. The series also seems to be in a legal limbo which may or may not hurt her chances. Overall, I say it's a possibility but she doesn't seem to have the same merits as other smaller/niche third party series. I don't see much of a reason for Nintendo to include Cooking Mama honestly. Even if they are looking at DS era games, other series like Professor Layton are more popular and the fanbase would be more likely to be drawn to Smash.

Want: 3%

Cooking Mama is a charming series. It's one of those games like Ace Attorney and Elite Beat Agents that Nintendo just loves to have on their systems to have something wacky and different. But it's not something I'm interested in seeing take up one of the last slots. I do give it brownie points (see what I did there?) for having a character that would certainly have a unique moveset based around cooking. But while I'm curious about the moveset, that isn't enough for me to want this character. Cooking Mama just doesn't appeal to me at all. Even when it comes to wacky characters, there are others from the DS era I want more like the Elite Beat Agents.

Predictions:
Jim Carrey...er I mean Eggman - 25%
Chun Li - um 25% too

Noms: Among Us character x10

 

[Ridrool64]

Oh I should have dinner.

Eh... I don't really have the energy to rate Cooking Mama again. Abstain. Everything I said last time still applies, but I'll be honest. I don't care enough to rate her again.

Eggman will have many people thinking he's a lock bc Sephiroth, and same with Chun-Li but also because of the rumor that Chun and a Tales rep were considered but cut, alongside Seph and Steve. Egg: 24.64%, Chun: 33.43%.

Nominate Henry x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh I should have dinner.

Eh... I don't really have the energy to rate Cooking Mama again. Abstain. Everything I said last time still applies, but I'll be honest. I don't care enough to rate her again.

Eggman will have many people thinking he's a lock bc Sephiroth, and same with Chun-Li but also because of the rumor that Chun and a Tales rep were considered but cut, alongside Seph and Steve. Egg: 24.64%, Chun: 33.43%.

Nominate Henry x 5.

I don't think we've ever rated Cooking Mama before

 

[Mr. MR]

Cooking Mama

Chance: 1%
I haven't played a Cooking Mama game but she looks like a quirky character. I generally don't think she's likely for this pass considering how tight the competition is. I'm not sure if she counts as first party or second party but she does have a lot of games on Nintendo consoles. I'm surprised she doesn't have any representation in Smash yet but I could see her as a spirit.

Want: Abstain

Noms: Stage: Tetris x5
Eggman prediction: 13.739%
Chun-Li prediction: 8.325%

 

[Icedragonadam]

Cooking Mama

Chance: 0.01% It's a particular interesting franchise and has popularity. But after the debacle that was the unlicensed Switch game, I don't see her at all in the near future.

Want: 20%. It'd be pretty hilarious if she was in. But I don't really feel or have interest in her TBH.

Chun-Li Prediction: 44.55%

Eggman Prediction: 11.33%

Nominate Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Cooking Mama

Chance 10 - Solid history with Nintendo goes in her favor. Honestly, wouldn't disagree with someone calling her an iconic DS era character for her time. Sadly for her though, the series doesn't seem to be as popular anymore and hasnt had a new game in a few years. Also, if legal issues are indeed in play here then it feels like we're a ways away from her joining the roster. That being said, Sakurai somehow got Snake in there so maybe he could work some magic.

Want 70 - This would be legitimately fun. Like a Wii Fit or Duck Hunt WTF where nobody would see it happening, but yet makes sense in the same way. Never played any games in the series but I think the content could be pretty good still. Especially interested in her moveset, which would likely be very fun. Cooking Mama is also fairly well known in the DS era so it's hard to say that shes not somewhat deserving.

Predictions:
Chun Li - 13.64%
Eggman - 25.42%

Noms:
Far Cry Rep x 15

 

[Lionfranky]

Cooking Mama

Chance: 5%

She has solid history with Nintendo, but her popularity or fan demand isn't in the same league as Phoenix Wright. I don't think she's in Nintendo's eyes. She does not make business sense. Not to mention internal dispute between developer and publisher adds further difficulty. Still, it's not entirely out of realm of possibility as she could be picked as surprise/gimmicky pick.

Want: abstain. I watched few playthroughs here and there, but never got to actually play it. I wouldn't be mad, but hilariously amused. Still, I think she fits better as assist trophy.

Nom: characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platfom x 10

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Mama
Eggman prediction: 40%
Chun-Li prediction: 45%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Cooking Mama

Look idk anything about this so I aint rating this, its Christmas. Abstaining

Speaking of which, a little christmas gift from me. Double noms tomorrow for everyone. Tagging GoodGrief741 to let em know. So there were already like 20 noms up to grab, so that means its 40.

Neku x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna end the day later tonight and give everyone time to post, double noms will come then. Ending around 5 pm est.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I had to put my roast in early, so I am ending the day now. Since this is shorter notice, anyone who wants to get their Cooking Mama ratings still has till 6 PM EST to get them in.

Today starts the first day of our fixed schedule. I will post it at the bottom of this post (and its in a pinned post in the RTC discord). Today we will rate Eggman and Chun Li. After Sephiroth, these two were suggested the most by y'all for a rerate. Will Sonic's arch nemesis and the queen of fighting games do better now? Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow we have some more familiar faces from pre existing third party franchises; Alucard, Zero, and Raiden. Predict their scores.

Finally, double noms are in effect. Meaning that instead of getting up to 20 noms if you rate both and do the paragraph, you will get 40. Merry Christmas.

555 Eggman and Chun Li
556: Alucard, Raiden, and Zero
557 :Quote and Reimu
556: Hayabusa and Adol
559: KOS MOS and Sakura
560 :Dante, Phoenix, and Monster Hunter
561: Bandana Dee and Dixie Kong
562: Rex and Gen 8 Pokemon (and Wooper)
563: Lloyd and Rayman
564: Crash and Tracer
565: Sora and Professor Layton
566: Waluigi and Isaac
567: Master Chief and Kratos
568: Concept: Second SNK Character and Concept: Stages without fighters as DLC
569: Concept: Third Fighters Pass
570: Pass Predictions Post Sephiroth

 

[BowserKing]

Eggman

Chance: 25%. Since Sephiroth got in, his chance of getting in has increased quite a bit there is potential of a moveset for him. Also given his popularity, his chance is quite likely. He also has the potential to be a boss.

Want: 85%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him face off against Bowser (again) but also King K.Rool, Mewtwo, King Dedede and Ridley, amoung other villains in a free for all. I can also see him be a boss in the sequels, especially in Sonic’s Classic Mode. Overall, Eggman would make a great Smash Bros choice, and while Knuckles and Shadow are my main choices, he would make a great choice too.

Chun Li

Chance: 25%. Just like Eggman, Chun-Li’s Chance of getting in is higher, due to Sephiroth getting in this game. Of course there are other Capcom reps like Phoenix and Especially Monster Hunter that would also be just as likely to show up as Chun Li, if not then even higher (in Monster Hunter’s case, due to upcoming games). But if Sephiroth can show us that less likely characters can make it in, then we should expect the unexpected.

Want: 90%. Chun Li would totally be fun to play as, and just like Ryu and Ken, she can have two Final Smashes. I can see Chun Li fight Terry, Little MAC and Zero Suit Samus in a fight. Overall, Chun Li would make a great choice for a Smash Bros Rep, and would be my main choice of the next Street Fighter Rep.

Prediction: Alucard (20%), Raiden (15%) and Zero (20%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[DanganZilla5]

Jim Carrey and some lady who likes to kick

Chance: 35% for both of them

Sephiroth obviously helps them out a lot by getting rid of the "no second unique rep per 3rd party series" fan rule. Plus these two have a lot going for them.

For Eggman, well I have much more confidence in a second Sonic rep now and out of the big Sonic characters he has the least obstacles (No assist trophy or DLC costume). He is pretty much the biggest gaming villain not playable yet (aside from maybe Dr. Willy) and Sonic really is overdue for a second character. Sonic has been in since Brawl and there are still glaring pieces of his history (like music and stages) that are still missing. With Sephiroth's inclusion, Eggman does make a lot of sense and I can say that I'm pretty confident in him. The only concerns are the small but possible chance that Shadow could be suddenly upgraded and competition from other notable Sega series like SMT and Puyo Puyo.

For Chun Li, she doesn't need an introduction either. She is the video game fighting female. Absolutely iconic and whenever Ryu crosses over with something, Chun Li is usually with him. The big concern I have with Street Fighter in general is that it already has two characters and a lot of content already, so I feel like they probably will go with another Capcom series with zero content like Ace Attorney and Devil May Cry. However, some people in the general newcomer speculation thread brought up to me how heavily Street Fighter's content leans towards SF2. This makes sense, but that leaves a gaping hole for the other installments like SF3 or SF Alpha. So there is an argument to be made for Chun Li's inclusion, even if I personally think it would make more sense for a new series to get content. But Nintendo is choosing the characters, not me, and it's Chun Li, she would print money. The only other issue I see is that they might pick someone else like Akuma or Bison.

_________________

Want for Eggman: 80%

Heck yeah, Eggman is the last big Villain that would really round out the villain cast for me. I'm not a big Sonic fan and I prefer that other unrepresented series like Sakura Wars or Puyo Puyo gets a character first, but I can't be mad because it's Eggman for christ sake. He is the Sonic character aside from maybe Shadow that I would choose as the next rep because he would be so cool. A moveset based around his mechs and weaponary would be very fun and interesting. Plus he would bring more music, and a stage which is great because I'm not a big fan of the two Sonic stages so hopefully his would be better.

________________

Want for Chun Li......5%

Hear me out. I'm gonna quote myself from the newcomer thread because I couldn't word this any better even if I tried:

This is a good time to share a hot take.

I get that Chun Li is iconic. She is a very important female character and character in general as she always appears alongside Ryu in crossovers. SF2 is a quintessential fighting game and one of the most iconic games of all time. I get that Chun Li would be a big deal and deserves a spot on the roster.

But I'm going to say that I would be disappointed if she gets in. Not just because I'm not a big Street Fighter fan, but also because Street Fighter already has plenty of content. 2 characters, a stage, 36 music tracks, and a ton of spirits. So It's not like it's starving for content like FF was. What about all of the other Capcom series that have zero representation? Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Ghosts n Goblins, Dead Rising, Okami, Final Fight, etc. I would much rather give one of those series a challenger pack than a series that already has plentiful content. It would just feel like a big missed opportunity you know? This is supposed to be the biggest crossover of all time. Why not give other franchises a shot?

Don't get me wrong, I would not be mad at Chun Li's inclusion, but I will not be pleased either. She would kill the chances of so many of my wanted characters and I do not want that, considering that she doesn't interest me much in the first place.

Predictions:
Alucard - 20%
Zero - 15%
Raiden - 14%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x30

Merry Christmas! Thanks Phantom!

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Dr. Ivo Robotnik

Chance: 30% - No matter how SEGA treats the franchise in Japan, Sonic the Hedgehog is still SEGA's top dog by a long shot. Eggman's one of gamings's most iconic villains, and with a bunch of other icons like Sephiroth, K. Rool, and Ridley being introduced in this game, it seems like things are lining up well for iconic villains! Along with the formermost character being a double-dip for a third party franchise, and with Min Min putting spirits back on the table, all of the doors are open for him. He's got fan demand and SEGA knows anything Sonic is basically a moneymaker. Nonetheless, Sonic hasn't gotten a newcomer for 13 years while Final Fantasy and Street Fighter got them in a much shorter time (though the big gap between Brawl and 4 definitely contributes to this), while Castlevania got a second character on its' debut. The one thing that really keeps me from giving a high score is that feeling that SEGA wouldn't go for him despite how popular Sonic is. All because Sonic isn't very popular in his home country, and we know how Japan-centric most of the choices are. It's really a coin toss for him. On the flipside, there is plenty of content for a challenger pack!

Want: 100% - By far one of my most wanted characters, as a Sonic fan, I really think the franchise needs another rep! and with Tails possibly out of the picture (his Mii costume was probably brought in before they knew they'd be making FP2, but that's a coin toss), Eggman's definitely the optimal choice! We'd have our first hovering character, and with all of the scientific machines he could pull from he'd have a very diverse moveset, and definitely a way to seperate himself from Bowser Jr. He's an iconic villain and one of the only characters who truly feels missing from the roster. He's got cool moves, a long history, a fantastic personality, what's not to love? Or even if he isn't chose, SEGA still deserves another first party rep like Arle or Aiai. We don't need another subsidiary pick like Shin Megami Tensei. But for me Eggman's the SEGA frontrunner and I'd be extremely satisfied with his inclusion.


Chun-Li

Chance: 50% - I'm strangely confident in her, given that Capcom LOVES Street Fighter, along with the rumors that Monster Hunter might've been rejected and recycled into Byleth. She's got a lot of merits as a gaming icon, and if Street Fighter does get another rep, she's definitely next in line after Ryu and Ken. The Monster Hunter costumes are also still missing, so a capcom rep is definitely still in the cards. It just depends on when they're revealed. Chun-Li is definitely an E3 choice but not one I'd expect in a random Direct. Now, she does have competition in the forms of Dante and Phoenix Wright, especially with the latter celebrating its' 20th anniversary next year. But given Capcom's love for Street Fighter, she can easily overcome this. Plus Street Fighter still has plenty of content to add, since most of what's in the game is focused purely on 2.

Want: 5% - Nothing against Chun-Li herself, she has the pedigree to be in the game and has more than earned the slot. It's just that Capcom has so many fantastic franchises to choose from, and this is the last chance for many of them. Capcom using their slot on a Street Fighter triple dip would honestly be a waste. I get it a little more with Sephiroth, he was apparently very popular in Japan and he ended up filling in all of the Final Fantasy content that should've come with Cloud. Street Fighter doesn't have this problem, it already has plenty of content in Smash. Furthermore, I've recently become a big Ace Attorney fan so that means Phoenix Wright is my personal Capcom preference, so Chun-Li would instantly deconfirm him. Now, if Capcom got another rep like Phoenix this game, and then Chun-Li was the 4th Capcom rep then she'd be fine. I'd just rather see Capcom dip into an unrepresented franchise before triple-dipping on Street Fighter. And "It would be cool" isn't going to convince me otherwise.


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x20
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x20

 

[Louie G.]

BALDY MCNOSEHAIR

CHANCE: 5%
I don't want to be this harsh on Eggman. He's a very important gaming villain, probably second banana only to Bowser himself. Sonic could absolutely warrant another character and I think if anyone he would be the best choice. But I just can't bring myself to imagine this happening (yet).

I think the big disconnect for me is just how Sonic has been treated in Smash over the years. Yeah yeah, I understand this is kind of rich to say after Sephiroth added another character to Final Fantasy of all series, with its downright pathetic amount of content from Smash 4. But we all know this was because of difficulties securing the rights to FF content, and not because Sakurai didn't want to. On the flipside, I have never felt that Sonic is a series that the Smash team cares about very much at all.

It actually has a decent amount of content, contrary to what many others would say, but it's just... not very inspired or interesting. Sonic was tacked on at the end of Brawl development as a crowd pleaser and has more or less maintained his fairly boring moveset. He only has one remix from his debut and the rest of the songs are mostly main themes / first levels from throughout the series, updated to account for the newest releases. Sakurai had said two of the like, three or four games he played in preparation for his debut were... Sonic 06 and Sonic the Fighters. Sakurai, love you buddy, but come on.

I admire Sakurai tremendously and am not accusing him of intentional bias or spite, but I just don't think Sonic has ever been much of a priority outside of "alright, there, you guys happy now?" He has the content he needs, but there's such a major disconnect between the love poured into some of these other series and then... Sonic. I feel that this is simply a result of relative indifference toward Sonic outside of the west, and perhaps a generational divide. It's not that he's unpopular in Japan, but from what I've observed the hype for Sonic just isn't up to par with how it is over here.

It's Nintendo choosing though, so Sakurai's own opinions about Sonic are not the be all end all. Still, I don't see Nintendo picking Eggman. Which is to say... I don't think they would pick Eggman, if they chose a Sonic character I would sooner see them going for someone like Tails. Let's just say I don't think corporate Nintendo is as creative as Sakurai? And Eggman feels more like boss material at first glance, which may have them shoot for someone with a bit more obvious fighter potential. Which is to say I definitely do believe Eggman could function as a fighter and be quite fun at that, but I'm not sure if Nintendo would have the imagination to think that out vs choosing one of Sonic's friends. I also feel as if Sephiroth has really honed in on that whole special villain stuff and I can't see us getting another unless a FP3 is confirmed.

Sorry, it's all pretty trivial stuff but that's how I feel. Who the hell knows at this point anyway? I just don't think it's gonna happen this time.

WANT: 75%
I do want Eggman, quite a bit too. I want more Sonic content. I just want Arle first, and I couldn't help but be a little upset by another Sonic character getting precedent over Puyo getting anything. Give me that and I'm right there with you guys, team Eggman all the way. I mean, Knuckles is my favorite, but I feel like Eggman and Tails should probably be there first.

CHUNNERS

CHANCE: 35%
Yeah, I think Chun-Li has a very real chance. I'm convinced that Capcom will get a new character in this pass (MH costumes mysteriously still missing after the drip feed of Capcom content through FP1, and now we've shifted over to Namco with FP2), and I believe it's down to Monster Hunter and Chun-Li which I'll go into a bit more down the line. What is there to say about Chun-Li that hasn't already been said? Probably the single most significant video game character left to add to Smash, if you ask me. First lady of fighting games and a name that rivals that of Street Fighter's main protagonist himself. I think Chun-Li's credentials speak for themselves, and "additional rep" or otherwise her name would turn heads.

I guess I should briefly touch upon the recent 5ch leak which, to be honest, I believe is worth paying attention to. They got quite a bit of information correct about development in 2018 before it would become common knowledge through insiders and official statements after a year or longer. Chun-Li's odds don't hinge entirely on this rumor, but if it's true that she was planned and scrapped it seems very plausible that she's a character who they would revisit. In all fairness, whether you believe this 'leak' or not, there's no guarantee that scrapped content will be revisited. It was just worth acknowledging as one of the bigger reasons people are talking about her nowadays.

But my relative confidence in Chun-Li comes more from why they would revisit her in the first place, and furthermore just why they would bother with Chun-Li in general. She's simply the biggest Capcom character left. Everyone has noted that Sephiroth opens these doors for more "reps" from existing third party series and all, but I think he represents something bigger than that. It's more like you don't have to be representing a new series, but if you aren't then you're probably just THAT significant of a character to justify yourself beyond that. Sephiroth is a big deal and so is Chun-Li, even more so. Both of them can absolutely, 100%, sell a pass regardless of whether the content they bring is from a "new world" or anything like that. They are gaming icons who still push Smash forward as the biggest crossover in gaming by their presence alone.

It really depends on where Nintendo's priorities lie to me, though. If Nintendo wants to add a big (kinda) new series as DLC, I believe the top choice is still Monster Hunter. Absolutely massive in Japan with recent worldwide success through World, two Nintendo exclusives on the horizon (well, for a little while at least) and even with Rathalos already in the game, plenty of room for expanding on that content. And with the whole 'revisiting old ideas' thing in mind, I feel like a playable MH had to be part of the equation at some point. MH is just that big where I can totally see them coming back and giving them some more. Personally, I still believe this is the more likely route.

Similarly though, if they want to go for a big character, there's nobody in Capcom who can compete with Chun-Li for all the reasons I've already expressed. On a related note, can you think of another Square character who would have created as big a splash as Sephiroth? I mean, Sora, sure, but that's a little complicated. Point is, I think some people (including myself) had gotten a little too fixated on this idea of reps and all that, bringing in brand new "worlds" like Sakurai expressed, when in reality the weight of adding a character like Sephiroth, or a character like Chun-Li, justifies itself quite easily. So I think Chun-Li has a very good chance, not because we can get "multiple unique reps" or anything but because we were given a great reminder that CHARACTER is important. And you'd have a hard time finding any character left who is bigger than Chun-Li.

Also, she rarely ever misses a crossover that has Ryu in it. Just a fun little side note, I guess it helps but not too much.

Of course she has a few shortcomings though, to briefly touch upon them... Capcom obviously has a lot of great competition, and although I didn't mention them I do believe that Dante and Phoenix Wright have pretty decent chances in their own right. Also, Min Min was added earlier in the pass and fulfills a similar role in her game that Chun-Li does in Street Fighter (chinese martial artist, kicks a lot). But they would fight super different and are very different characters, so I don't see it as a massive obstacle. Just figured I'd acknowledge some of the hangups.

WANT: 95%
Chun-Li has climbed up to one of my most wanted characters over the course of the last few months. Street Fighter is in some desperate need of content outside of Street Fighter 2, and it would just feel so right to have Chun-Li here. The only thing holding me back from 100% is how many amazing characters Capcom has under their belt. I don't think I'd be truly disappointed with any of them - my most wanted is Morrigan, but I already recognize how much of a longshot that is.

PREDICTIONS:
Alucard - 7.5%
Zero - 9%
Raiden - 15%

NOMINATIONS - SIR ARTHUR x5

 

[NintenZ]

Alright I guess I can make a post here since I have strong opinions about both characters chances in opposite directions

Robotnik

Chances: 15%

I’m honestly being generous with that extra five. Gonna be honest, I know there’s enthusiasm for him but I just don’t see it. I know Sephiroth is a villain that broke the barrier for these types of things but I just don’t think Nintendo has interest in adding Robotnik or another Sonic character as a whole. I think the representation it’s gotten in Smash and the fact it didn’t even get an Echo Fighter in the base game (would’ve been really easy considering a good chunk of the characters share the same moveset archetype with Sonic) just kinda tells me they aren’t really interested in adding another character from it. And with the Sonic franchise’s diminishing reputation and lack of recent projects currently available for Nintendo to invest in the franchise besides the movie (which SEGA was only involved with after the redesign and otherwise only licensed the IP to Paramount for) which was only a decent box office success, I just don’t know if they’d go with him with the franchise’s current state, recent sales-numbers not withstanding since that likely wouldn’t have factored into planning. That’s also not forgetting the fact Sonic’s reputation in Nintendo’s home country, Japan, is pretty notorious for being pretty minuscule which also makes me less convinced they’d go with a second Sonic character. Combine that with the fact SEGA is currently pushing a lot of their other franchises more than Sonic as of recently, they might request Nintendo go with another option as a character like Robotnik doesn’t really do anything to further develop company relations. There’s also the matter of the previously released Tails and Knuckles Mii Costumes, if Robotnik was coming wouldn’t they have been released with him? To give him credit though, it’s not all doom and gloom from me which is why he’s got a 15% at least. He is an iconic villain, he has made an impact, he would be unique and stand apart from Sonic, he’s also marketable overall to a broad audience, and if we did get another Sonic character I would easily see it being him, but the problem is... I just don’t see another Sonic character happening. If he does get in I would be genuinely surprised but hey I could wind up wrong.

Want-60%

Which is not to say I wouldn’t want him. As I said before Robotnik is a very justified addition, being an iconic villain that has made an impact. I also like him more than other Sonic choices, I’m not fond of most of them since a lot of them fall into similar moveset archetypes as Sonic and I find most of them would fall into semi-clone territory at best, but with Robotnik you could use a lot of the different gadgets that he has as well as incorporate the Badniks into his moveset. It would be a very interesting contrast for Sonic and I would like that. At the same time, I feel Sonic is fine with it’s representation overall, we’ve had crossovers where only Sonic appears as a character so it’s not like this is anything new or the other characters were treated as essentials, hell sometimes it’s inconsistent what character accompanies Sonic, it infrequently flip flops between your Tails, or Knuckles, or Shadows and there’s no real consistency, though I guess that’s kind of a problem with the franchise as a whole lol. Also, I’d rather they go with other SEGA characters from other franchises, as I find a lot of them more interesting than Sonic’s cast and that they might bring more variety to the game, and I know I’m THE guy who says company representation doesn’t matter, but speaking as a long-time SEGA and Sonic fan, they have so many interesting franchises and characters you could use for a game like Smash, and there exists a misconception from Western fans that SEGA is only Sonic, that I’d rather someone else from the company get some time in the limelight and prove that to be wrong even more than it is. But hey, that’s just my take, and I’m not entirely against Robotnik at least since I find he has the most merit of any Sonic character as of now.

Now for on a different shift, let’s talk about fighting game’s First Lady.

Chun-Li

Chances: 70%

Now this is a character I’m keeping a close eye on. I don’t typically get super confident about characters’ chances but tbh there’s a lot of interesting things to take away with Chun-Li. With Sephiroth opening the gates for unique third-party options from existing franchises, probably one of the most recognizable options would be Chun-Li. Let’s talk about her impact. She is one of the most iconic female characters in all of videogames, and has quite the portfolio to boot. She has inspired many fighting game characters such as Mai Shiranui from SNK, Sonya Blade and Milena from Mortal Kombat, Lei Fang from DOA, Ling Xiaoyu from Tekken, and Pai Chan from Virtua Fighter. In 2009 she had her own live-action movie Street Fighter the Legend of Chun-Li, while not a success critically or commercially it was a great display of her popularity, showing she could headline a movie which no other Street Fighter character has done before. Several famous people have cosplayed as Chun-Li, which include but are not limited to Miki Mizuno, Maki Miyamae, Rie Tomosaka, Kyary Pamyu Pamyu, Ming Na Wen (Who also portrayed the character in the original Street Fighter film), and Nicki Minaj who also wore a cosplay of Chun-Li in the music video for a song named after Chun herself. Chun-Li has had an impact on Chinese fashion senses during the 90’s as several films from that era in China had characters wearing similar outfits to her. Truly, Chun-Li is a very recognized and accomplished character in the gaming world. Finally she has appeared in many, many crossovers across the years which include but are not limited to every Capcom Vs game, the Project X Zone series, Granblue Fantasy, Shadowverse, and Power Rangers Legacy Wars. Typically she has always appeared alongside Ryu, however Ultimate is one of the few Street Fighter crossovers where she does not appear, which is rather curious. What’s also curious is that various Street Fighter characters are missing as Spirits (Notably Alex from 3) and the only songs currently included are from 2, with only four having remixes. What’s also interesting is the missing Monster Hunter costumes, is it possible they could come with a character like Chun-Li? Furthermore, it was Street Fighter that kicked off Capcom’s support of the Switch with Super Street Fighter 2 Turbo the Final Challengers, and considering how Capcom is pushing Street Fighter as one of their biggest IPs, particularly in the realm of eSports, it would not surprise me if Nintendo went with Chun-Li to further expand their business relationship with Capcom. With Sephiroth being included, I’m feeling a same feeling I did when Richter was announced as an Echo Fighter, he broke a barrier that third-parties could have Echos which paved the way for Ken, in the same way Sephiroth paves the way for a character like Chun-Li. So all in all, Chun-Li I feel very good about, it would be more surprising if she didn’t happen at this rate honestly.

Want-100%
I don’t think I have much more to say, I’m fully on-board with Chun-Li. I don’t care if there’s too many Street Fighter characters, Chun is an icon and honestly it would just feel so weird if she didn’t happen at this point. It ain’t “Ultimate” without a character like her.

Whew, that took longer than I expected, but yeah those are my thoughts on everything atm.

Forgot my nominations

Nominations:
Yuri Lowell- (10x)
Anyone from Xenoblade- (10x)
Kaede Akamatsu- (10x)
Jesse from Control- (10x)

 

[Lyncario]

The fixed schedule: part 1

E.G.G.M.A.N.

Chances: 5%

I'm rating him highter than last time because there's now a precedent to a second character from a 3rd party series getting in as dlc, more specificaly a vilain, and said vilain being none other than Sephiroth, and well, Eggman is one of the few vilains able to match him in iconicness, and he is also above the few others in that tier (in my opinion, Mr Bison, Glados, and Heihachi). So, why is his chance rating a mere 5%? Well, one big thing is that Sephiroth definitively feels more like an exception than a constant. With how much of a special case they seem to have made for him, and especialy seeing how it was this way for the other 2 characters of the pass. Min Min getting in made people think that we would get mainly spirit promotions from recent first party Nintendo games, and we still only have Min Min that qualify as such, despite half of the pass being done. After Steve, we though that we would get characters from extremly popular and relevant games that hit the casual scene a lot like Fortnite or League of Legends, and then we got Sephiroth and now people are going way harder on predicting 3rd party series getting a secnod unique rep, with Eggman seeming like the frontrunner of that, and with, you guessed it, Chun-Li being right behind him. Now, could Sephiroth be the law instead of the exception? Of course he could, the next 3 dlc fighters could be Eggman, Chun-Li/Mr Bison, and someone else like Dr Willy, but is it realisticaly going to be like that? No, it's not going to be like that.

Now that I talked about how too much of the Smash fanbase base their predictions on the last characters despite how it pretty much worked once (Byleth then Min Min, and even then Byleth seemed more positive to Astral Chain and Ring Fit rathet than Arms), which is not a lot, despite how much it was done. Another thing is that, well, Tails is a big competition for him when it comes to the Sonic series getting it's second unique character in Smash (ideally, both of them would get in along with Shadow being an echo), and while I do think that it's kinda innevitable, I do not think that it's this way for Ultimate. Base game of next game? He would have highter chances, but for now, I say that it's not his time, at least not yet.

Want: 70%

Iconic vilain from a series that I like a lot and was a big part of my childood that could have a really fun/creative moveset and that would bring more content from said series that I like a lot. Also haha pissed on the moon. Now that gave the generic "why Eggman in Smash good" answer, I will say that Eggman is really a vilain that has amazing moments multiple times trough Sonic's history that are often overlooked. First of all, he's amazing in Sonic Adventure 2, where he manages to be not only extremly menacing but also very fun in his behind the scenes moments. When he blew up half of the moon, that was just threatening. When he raged about the eclispe canon nnot being strong enough with Rouge and Shadow, that was funny. When he pointed a gun at Amy, that was tense. When he talked with Tails about his grandfather during the credits, that was just emotional and very insightfull about why he is the way he is. Oh and also, he's also amazing in Unleashed, it's one of his better perfomances along SA2. Eggman is not as impactfull to me as Sephiroth (who was way closer to my most-wanted characters before he joined), he's still very good. Oh and also I'd prefer other Sega owned characters, but that just doesn't influence my want of him that much if at all.

Hong Meiling- wait, no, wrong series and wrong badass female martial arist

Chances: 6%

Pretty much most of what I said towards Eggman is also appliable to Chun-Li, with one big difference is that the competition she faces from other potential Street Fighter characters to get in Smash is not as big as what Eggman faces with Tails. I could easily see Tails gettnig in before Eggman, but I just cannot see Mr Bison or Guile getting in Smash before Chun-Li as it comes to 3rd Street Fighter rep. And another thing, this would be the 3rd Street FIghter character in Smash, not the second, which in my opinion lowers her chances a bit (from an 8 or 9 to the 6 I gave her), and well, anothr thing is that Capcom has many series that could also get in, even if how big they are varry, from the juggernauts that are Resident Evil (F), Monster Hunter, and Street Fight, to the still popular even if not as nearly Devil May Cry, Megaman, Ace Attorney, Ghosts and Goblins, and even Okami, to more obscure even if still amazing stuff like Darkstalkers. And well, I could see a bunch of them getting in before Chun-Li, between the Hunter (even if his chances may be lower if the developers still want to have the series be represented by Rathalos than the Hunters), Dante, Phoenix Wright, even Jill Valentine/Leon Kennedy and Zero for a future Smash. Also I don't really believe the Chun-Leak, even if it does make mostly sense, I just cannot see Sephiroth being a "plan B" to Sora, Sephiroth was chosen by Nintendo because he's Sephiroth, not because negotiations with Disney fell trough. Also the rumors of negotiations with Capcom over Resident Evil could also make it not good for her, even if I don't believe in said rumors that floated around last year.

Want: 80%

The thing about Chun-Li is that she's badass, and by that I mean not only extremly badass, but also very cool while on top of that being a good character. She kicks people and looks very cool/good while doing it. Not only that, but she would also have a very cool moveset (this comes from how I like traditionnal fighting games a lot and how I find Ryu, Ken, and Terry all extremly fun to play in Smash), so that's another plus for her. She could also bring Street Fighter content that isn't mainly locked to Street Fighter 2, which would be very cool considering how I'm pretty sure that we have like, only content from SF2 and kinda SF1 because that from when Ryu and Ken came from, even if they took way more from their SF2 incarnation with the Focus Attack from SF4. Anyway, Chun-Li good.

Nominations

Madeline Mii x40

Predictions

Alucard: 6.8%
Zero: 7.8%
Raiden: 9.9%

 

[Inue Houji]

Chun-Li
Chance: 23%
Yes, this one is gonna be interesting. The "Chun-leak" has been all the rage this past week. While the info is plausible, there's nothing directly pointing at Chun-Li being DLC. So while there is a chance, I think people are coming to conclusions too quickly.
People are waiting for a Capcom character, and Chun-Li could be the one. Personally, it seems a little odd to add two characters from the same franchise in a single game.

As for the merits of the character, Chun-Li is one of Street Fighters mascots and is one of the most famous women in gaming. She's a crossover queen, and has vast amounts of appearances to take from. She definitely has enough appeal and recognizability to earn a spot in the unofficial gaming hall-of-fame that is Smash Bros.

Want: 50%
While I've never been a Street Fighter enthusiast, I'm well-acquainted with it through the internet and general gaming sphere. All the fighting game characters till now have been fun to play as and full of personality, and I'm sure Chun-Li would bring the same and more, seeing as how she's not a typical shoto-like character like the others.


Eggman
Chance: 6%
With Sephiroth in, Eggman is definitely the most famous video game villain missing from Smash. With appearances in pretty much every single Sonic game, he's the arch nemesis of the blue rodent eulipotyph.
Sephiroth paved the way for other third-party series being eligible for second reps, and Eggman is one of these. People seem very optimistic about his chances at the moment, but I think people are falling into the trap of recency bias. Most DLC characters have broken a fan "rule" or two, and those haven't really meant anything for future DLC. I don't think this is the case now either.
Eggman could definitely get in on his own merits without it, but he's not the only character competing for a spot.

Want: 10%
I have never really been a Sonic fan. The music is great, but the games just feel clunky to me. Maybe I'm just bad, I don't know.
As for the Eggman himself, he's a pretty unique villain, but I fear his design would overlap a bit too much with Bowser Jr. in Smash. Even though the hovercraft thing is his most iconic machine, he does have a lot of them, and Sakurai and his team are creative, so I'm probably worrying over nothing.
Even so, I don't know. There's just something that doesn't appeal about the prospect that I can't put my finger on.


Predictions
Alucard: 3.7%
Raiden: 1.2%
Zero: 0.2%

Nominations
Beat x35
Rallen (Spectrobes) x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Chun-Li

Chance: 75%

I feel her chances have gone up dramatically since secondary 3rd Parties have been put back on the table. The fact that she was never even made into an Assist Trophy or Mii costume despite her calibur made me inheritantly suspicious from the start. Smash is still the only major crossover to have Ryu playable but not her, let alone Ken. Her absence is just jarring at this point. Street Fighter is also only represented mainly with SFII music, which is also suspicious to me.

Want: 100%

She is one of the most iconic video game characters of all time. She is to gaming female characters as Sephiroth is to gaming villains. Just as Sephiroth sits with Bowser and Eggman as one of the most iconic villains, Chun-Li sits with Peach, Lara Croft, and Tifa as one of the most iconic female gaming characters.

Eggman

Chance: 45%

Just like with Chun, I think he has a significantly higher chance as well. I would put him in with more competition from his home series though in the form of Tails, who is pretty much his equal in fan demand and iconicness. Sonic seems to be more evenly represented among classic and modern games, though it could certainly use some remixes.

Want: 35%

I wouldn’t be against his inclusion, and I think he's more than earned it, but I just like Tails, Knuckles, and other Sega franchises more. I’m also don't really play mech/heavyweight characters that often.

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Eggman mood:

Spoiler: Eggman Music

Some songs to get into the Chun-Li mood:

Spoiler: Chun-Li Music

 

[fogbadge]

40 noms? might as well have a go

the only name change in gaming that people cant get over
chances 50% i already believed he could get in before sephiroth. so i dont think his position has changed since the last time we rated him. eggman is one of the most iconic video game villains ever. to me hes one of the two natural choices for a second sonic character, the other being tails. i can believe nintendo would suggest another sonic character and i can believe sega would be on board. honestly it may just be down to sakurai.

want: 100% im not one for villain usually but i love eggman. the guys hilarious and hed have a very wacky moveset thatd be tones of fun. in terms of possible final smashes alone theres so much. and he might bring some of the boss themes with and a lot of them are great. not to mention a reveal trailer with e.g.g.m.a.n. playing over it would be hype. the only downside would be hed gotten in over tails but i think hes fun enough to soften the blow.

chun li
chance 50% i can believe this one as well. she is undoubtedly one of the most well known characters in one the best known fighting game series there is, that alone might be enough. another thing worth noting is sakurai's focus on things that are a bit more in line with traditional fighting games this time. you know how he said he wanted stamina to be treated as one of the major modes this time. so i cant help but think a character from a traditional fighting game is likely for this pass. true we have min min but arms is a bit of a niche take and even then we got two jrpg characters last time whos says we cant have two fighting this time.

want: 0% not for me im afraid. ive got nothing against her i just dont want any more street fighter characters. the novelty of ryu has worn off and ken inclusion irritates me. plus im not into street fighter that much, ive enjoyed what little ive played but its not enough for me to want anymore of it. so for me this would be a bit of a boring inclusion.

nominate qbby x40. let me know if that wasnt enough goodgrief

 

[Dan Quixote]

Alright so I've lurked on this forum for a couple months now, and I figure it's a good a time as any to start participating. Sephiroth hype + just me loving the sound of my own voice. Since I've lurked I think I understand how these RTC posts are supposed to work, but if I mess up somehow let me know okie doke?

funny moon meme

CHANCE - 40%
Sorry but I just don't see Eggman getting in over some other animals. Tails, Knuckles, and Shadow would probably all take priority in my gut feeling. Maybe Eggman would be on the same level as Knuckles, but yeah. Sega just seems like they'd care more about the more marketable animal characters, not to mention those guys are protagonists and Eggman is only playable in spinoffs (except his special story in SA which is notable but kind of a one time thing). But of course, this is Dr. Eggman in the end, the main villain of one of the most famous video game franchises ever, which makes Eggman one of the most famous villains too. Sonic could get five fighters in Smash and it would probably deserve it tbh, even if it's not what I'd personally do. So even if I'm more pessimistic on Eggman when it comes to Sonic the Hedgehog fighters, the stature of the franchise means I can't put him lower than 40%.

WANT - 50%
In addition to Sega probably preferring the animal characters, so do I! Eggman is really cool and I would never dream of being mad or disappointed at his inclusion, but eh in the end I know in my heart that Tails is the Sonic character I have the most connection too and would be the hypest for me. Also the moveset. Putting Eggman in a machine à la Bowser Jr. wouldn't be bad really, but it makes it clear that characters like Tails would have movesets that better represent the franchise. Eggman would make for a sick boss fight though. Smash needs more boss fights in general because I love them.

春丽

CHANCE - 55%
So apparently there's this leak going around that points in Chun-Li's favor? Honestly I thought her resurgence in speculation was just cuz Sephiroth opened the doors for more fighters from third party franchises already in the game. But if there's really some active rumor then I'll bump her up a few percentage points lol. Street Fighter already has two (basically) unique fighters so it probably wouldn't get priority like Final Fantasy just did but... c'mon dude it's Chun-Li. Everyone knows Chun-Li! My mom probably knows who Chun-Li is. SFV is doing pretty good recently, especially with the Championship edition and a good cycle of updates that have fixed a lot of problems people had with balance and netplay. I know it's not perfect oof but hey looking from a Smash perspective I'd love even that level of dev support. Capcom also loves Nintendo and they're due for a new fighter in the game.

WANT - 75%
Nicki Minaj put out a song two years ago called "Chun-Li" and it's pretty good, especially by modern Nicki Minaj standards, check it out. Best song on her Queen album. Oh and also Chun-Li in Smash would be the hypest stuff! This is a FIGHTING game and it doesn't have the legendary "first woman" of fighting games! Normally I'd tank this stat because I like variety, I would normally not want more content from a universe that already has two fighters, but I have zero qualms with using a challenger pack on Chun-Li. She could differ a lot from Ryu and Ken by pulling from her more modern SF movesets and mechanics. (She'd hopefully also bring music that isn't from ONE GAME. Seriously if it weren't for the sheer number of songs SF's music selection in Smash would be as sad as Final Fantasy's) This number would be slightly higher if I weren't a big fan of Phoenix Wright and Amaterasu for Smash. But even then, I'm not the type to get mad if one Capcom is chosen over another, and I'd be all for Chun-Li even if this were a zero sum game. She deserves it, she'd be hype, she'd probably be hella fun to play given the love Terry got. It all comes together. Honestly my main question is, what would they do for spirits? SF's already good on that front. Almost every major character is representative. Maybe they'd have to pull more from Final Fight or something. I dare them to put superheroes from Marvel vs Capcom to make people mad lmao

Nominations: Concept; League of Legends Character x10, Tetra x 30

Predictions: Alucard 24%, Raiden 20%, Zero 11%
(ngl I'm not entirely sure if preds are for chance or want but I'm assuming chance for this)

 

[Jomosensual]

Eggman

Chance 40 - Think with Sephiroth being revealed his chances shoot up. Last time we rated him I gave him only a 5% since no series had gotten multiple unique fighters and it felt like he might have just been passed over. Now that Sephiroth exists in Smash though I think there's a solid shot. While I'm not a huge Sonic fan I assume that theres more content that could easily come for a stage and music given how long the series has been running. He's level of iconicness is enough to give him a huge boost as well now. Always felt like it was down to him and Shadow for the next Sonic spot and now that there's nothing keeping him off the table I think he might actually be the frontrunner for Sega if we get a Pass 3. Put whatabout this pass? Well, that's not as great for him I'm afraid. We do still have what was supposed to be an E3 reveal and potentially a Game Awards one too. After Steve and Sephiroth though I feel like our big hitters might be done now and we're heading more in the direction of lesser known or well known but not iconic characters. A big boost here though is a lack of competition. Kazuma feels done after the no fighting women comment and he's more iconic than Arle for sure. Just not feeling solid about him for this pass right now

Want 100 - Dr Eggman is not only an iconic video game character, he's an iconic villain. Being the former means I'm interested but being the latter means that I'm very interested. Smash is missing some really good villains and who better than Eggman?


Chun Li

Chance 25 - Gave her a 10% back in April. Since then we had Sephiroth, who obviously boosted her chances. Why not as high as Eggman though? Mainly because competition is so high. Dante and Phoenix feel like solid contenders. Monster Hunter is on the board but in limbo. Resident Evil is still alive for a pass 3. Capcom just has so much good stuff that im not confident they'll triple dip on Street Fighter before picking another one of their many popular and iconic characters/series.

Want 60 - I like Chun Li and believe that she without a doubt belongs in Smash. Like I've said before she should have made it in before Ken. However, I'd rather get Phoenix, Dante, or Resident Evil in the game before we get another Street Fighter rep. Wouldn't be mad about it though if she did get in. Her status makes her beyond deserving of a spot.

Predictions
Raiden 2%
Alucard 8%
Zero 1%

Noms
Far Cry rep x20
A Bioshock Protagonist x20

 

[Perkilator]

Chance for both: Abstain
I stopped setting characters in stone a long time ago. Also, if I tried to analyze either character’s individual factors (which others have done), I wouldn’t act like I knew what I was talking about.

Want for Jim Carrey’s Baldy McNosehair: 30%
He’s far from the highest on my want list (that honor goes to Arle, Axel and Sakura), purely because I want other lesser-known SEGA franchises to shine. However, I wouldn’t be against Eggman in any way after Sephiroth. I really enjoy him as a villain.

Want for the woman whose life was changed on a Tuesday: 5%
I’m going to quote what DanganZilla5 quoted himself on:

This is a good time to share a hot take.

I get that Chun Li is iconic. She is a very important female character and character in general as she always appears alongside Ryu in crossovers. SF2 is a quintessential fighting game and one of the most iconic games of all time. I get that Chun Li would be a big deal and deserves a spot on the roster.

But I'm going to say that I would be disappointed if she gets in. Not just because I'm not a big Street Fighter fan, but also because Street Fighter already has plenty of content. 2 characters, a stage, 36 music tracks, and a ton of spirits. So It's not like it's starving for content like FF was. What about all of the other Capcom series that have zero representation? Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Ghosts n Goblins, Dead Rising, Okami, Final Fight, etc. I would much rather give one of those series a challenger pack than a series that already has plentiful content. It would just feel like a big missed opportunity you know? This is supposed to be the biggest crossover of all time. Why not give other franchises a shot?

So yeah, Chun-Li’s pretty low on my want list for this reason (in fact, I’d rathe she be an Assist Trophy Guile is completely useless anyways). It’s a pretty similar reason why Eggman’s pretty low as well, but him I can forgive because the Sonic series still only has one character. Again, though, I wouldn’t be against Chun-Li in any way; I just want other franchises to shine.

Alucard: 30%
Zero: 30%
Raiden: 50%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x10

 

[toonito]

My previous rating of Chun-Li

Chun-Li

Chance: 1% 3%
I don't see her getting in the Fighter Pass Vol. 2; would be highly (and pleasantly tbh) surprised if she's one of the 5 3 remaining slots. However I'd be surprised if she never got in a future Smash title possibly as early as the next Smash game. Despite her overall popularity I can see some backlash within the Smash fandom if SF were to get 3 characters (no moar FG characters, ugh more command inputs, etc.) which is fair considering fellow Capcom franchises like Devil May Cry, Resident Evil, and Ace Attorney don't have one playable character.

Want: 100%
She's a legit icon not just in fighting games but in all of gaming period. Easily the main female lead in SF alongside Ryu. Ken is my favorite SF character but I wouldn't be surprised if in the future its just Ryu and Chun-Li as SF reps in Smash. Incorporates both motion (Ryu, Ken) as well as charge (Terry's Rising Tackle) commands into her moveset. People bemoan Smash's disparity in female representation you can't really go wrong with one of the trailblazers in Smash. Her dutiful yet fun personality would be cool to see in the mix alongside ZSS, Mario, Snake, and so on. If people can ask for more characters from Kirby, Mario, FE, AC, etc. I can want another SF character.

Eggman:

Chance: 5%
Sephiroth's inclusion has boosted discussion around both these characters odds of getting in Smash. I don't see Sakurai continuing the 3rd party villain inclusion but if he does then Eggman is a pretty popular pick.

Want: 1%
If Sonic got a 2nd character I'd prefer it to be Tails.

Noms:
Zagreus x40

 

[NintenZ]

By the way I just wanna give my thoughts since it was brought up a few times

I don't think the "leak" means much nor does it affect my ratings of Chun-Li either way, I think some elements of it could end up being true but I don't think it should be a be-all-end-all factor towards her chances especially since the source is shady, though it's interesting food for thought I suppose

Either way I think she's got a pretty good shot personally speaking, whether it be for this pass or a future one if the opportunity were to arise

 

[Sari]

"I just stole Smash invites from 4,822 candidates!"

Chance: 20%
Sephiroth helps to show that we can indeed get more than one unique third-party rep even as DLC. Now the question is: would they go for another Sonic character? Possibly. Robotnik is very well-known on his own merits and there is definitely a lot more room for more Sonic content.

I don't think any of the animal Sonic characters would get in during FP2 since Tails/Knuckles were costumes in the last pass while Shadow would most likely be an echo which I don't see happening as paid DLC. So as far as Sega competition goes, Robotnik's only real threat is Arle and even then he benefits from being way more recognizable. If we are getting another Sega character like last pass then I can easily see it being Robotnik.

Want: 80%
Robotnik and Tails are pretty much the only other Sonic characters I'd want in Smash. Between the two, Robotnik is definitely the one I'd want the most. He's such an iconic video game character and probably the most well-known villain not in Smash yet. Sonic's moveset isn't exactly my favorite and characters like Shadow would probably play in a similar fashion. Robotnik on the other hand would fight in a mech and be completely unique which is perfectly fine with me. I'd give this a higher score though I still think I'd prefer Axel and Arle in regards to other Sega characters.

-----

The only video game character that can brag about having a Nicki Minaj song named after them

Chance: 20%
Even when ignoring that one supposed leak, I think Chun-Li is fairly likely and tied with Phoenix as the most likely Capcom character. She's super iconic and probably the most well-known female video game character not playable in Smash yet. Street Fighter is still going strong and has a plethora of content to choose from.

Right now my Capcom character rankings in terms of chances are the following:

Chun-Li = Phoenix Wright > Monster Hunter > Dante​

(Yes even after all the bad Monster Hunter news this week, I still think they're more likely than Dante. More on that when we get to the Capcom day)

So basically I think Chun-Li is in the same spot as Robotnik; an iconic character that is one of the frontrunners for their respective companies.

Want: 85%
With how massive and influential the Street Fighter series is, I think it definitely deserves an additional character. Chun-Li would be the prime choice as she is super iconic and just a staple of the series. Plus I love the Street Fighter series and am always down for more content. Outside of spirits, we only have Street Fighter II content in Smash at the moment. I'd love to have some music tracks from the Alpha series, SFIII, SFIV, etc.

This score would probably be higher however Phoenix has recently become my most wanted Capcom rep (as well as one of my most wanted in general). Also if we had to get another Street Fighter character then I would personally go with Alex.

-----

Chance predictions:
Alucard: 16.79%
Zero: 9.31%
Raiden: 8.94%

Nominations:
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/echo x20
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x20

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just as a reminder, for your noms to count, you have to have at least 2 sentences written, and to get the bonus noms you need to have at least a paragraph (5 sentences).

The fact Sari did not post Death Egg Robot's theme hurts me

35% Chance

I was one of those people pushing Eggman hard. Not as hard as I did Sephiroth, but still hard. Now that the fan rule was broken, how does he fare?

Well, let me say overall I think Eggman is the front runner in terms of Sega reps. I know some people say Arle, who I potentially might nom up after Neku is rated. I know some might say Sakura. Well... I will have more to say on her day. Some people might even mention Kiryu or Axel Stone. I am going with Eggman. The fact of the matter is Eggman is a bigger name than all of his competition combined arguably. The fact of the matter is he is part of what people think of when they think of Sonic. It's clear Sega knows that when people think Sonic, it is Tails, Eggman, and Sonic himself. After 06 caused sega to get cold feet over the abundance of Sonic characters (which is a shame imo), the only ones that really stuck around frequently were Tails and Eggman, who have appeared in essentially all of Sonic's major works since their inception. Now why wouldn't Tails take this spot? Well... he got costumed. I view the DLC mii costumes, with the exception of Rex since that was available day one, as a death knell. As a result, Eggman's strongest competition is out of play for being the next sonic rep.

So why isn't he higher? Well... I do not think he is happening this pass. I think spots are tight, and while I am probably one of the most bullish people on here that FP3 will happen due to how profitable Smash and it's dlc has been, it might not. And, well, I do not think we are double dipping on big third party villains this pass. Now obviously this could happen this pass. But I feel that saying Eggman is going to happen now that Sephiroth is jumping the gun a little too much. So if we do indeed get a FP3, I think Eggman has a strong chance. If we don't I am not as confident.

100% Want

...Which is a crying shame because Eggman is one of my most wanted choices. I love getting more villains in smash. I love how Ultimate in particular has done a good job with this. Getting Wolf back and adding Ridley, K. Rool, Dark Samus, and now Sephiroth helps balance out the villain hero divide. The villain line up as a whole in Ultimate is almost perfect to me.

and even

I am being a little liberal with antagonists here, Dedede and Meta Knight arguably do not count as much anymore, even if they are recurring bosses in the Kirby series. But overall, this is a pretty solid assortment of rogues for smash. The only one that I want that is remotely likely rn to join them is Eggman. After that, you fall off to characters like Porky, Magalor, M Bison, and other choices that I doubt will happen.

But it goes beyond wanting more villains in Smash. This is about Sonic music. Sonic's music selection in Smash is...disappointing. Many classic tunes are absent. The only remix we have is of Angel Island Zone. There are so many obvious choices that I could just toss together a sonic music pass myself to go with Eggman. In fact...

Death Egg Robot (Remix)
Chemical Plant Zone
Metropolis (Remix)
Stardust Speedway Bad Future (US)
Stardust Speedway Bad Future (Japan)
Metallic Madness (Mania)
Big Arm (Mania Adventures)
Flying Battery Zone (Act 2 Mania)
Death Egg Zone (Remix)
Egg Carrier
E.G.G.M.A.N
Egg Emperor
Egg Dragoon
Reach For the Stars "Orchestra Version"
Ruby Illusions

Boom. I made Sonic's music in Smash good. If they could salvage FF7's representation through music, they can do so for Sonic. Is this a little high? Yeah, we likely would not get 15 songs. But it is a solid list of choices that could be made that would fit Eggman and Sonic as a franchise well.

Mrs Fighting Game herself

25% Chance

For the record, I am skeptical of that one 5chan leak that says she was planned and scrapped. Even then though, she makes way too much sense for a Capcom rep. She is very much the next choice for Street Fighter, which is huge since we know Street Fighter could get a new rep that is not an echo now due to Sephiroth. Chun Li is easily one of the biggest names not in Smash. She is who you think of when you think of "fighting game woman". She also has a clear built in moveset that could appeal to Sakurai and the team.

Why is she not higher? Competition. While I do think Dante does get a little overrated in some parts of the internet in terms of his chances to appear in Ultimate, Phoenix Wright and Monster Hunter both are big names she has to contend with. Phoenix has much more smash demand, while MH is a giant franchise that, while it does have some hiccups in terms of representing the hunters in crossovers, is still easily Capcom's biggest franchise without a playable rep, Even not counting those three, you still have competition from smaller characters like Amaterasu or Mike Haggar. Man, with all these iconic characters, you think Capcom would have made a good crossover fighter showing them off in the past five years.

So where does she stand? In my opinion, she is the runner up for Capcom reps in my eyes. I have become a bit more bullish on MH and Dante, but Phoenix Wright makes a ton of sense to choose for me. Still something that is much more realistic now, but not someone I am super confident in.

50% Want

I mean, look. I like iconic characters. I like the fact we would get one of the biggest, most iconic female characters of all time in smash. And I like the fighting game characters in smash at least conceptually. But man, Chun Li is not my capcom pick. My ideal choice would be Amaterasu, but there are plenty of other choices I would like. Dante, Phoenix, Mike Haggar, Bionic Commando, a Resident Evil rep (rip), and even Morrigan would all be choices I would prefer to get. Is that saying I would hate Chun Li? Nope. She would still be a great choice, and I think that shows how much of a powerhouse Capcom is with their franchises. It just means that she is far from my first choice and would sting at least for a little bit.

Neku x 15
Mike Haggar x 25

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Oh boy, i feel like im on the unpopular opinion this time around:

Ha Ha Laser Piss who pffffffffwooosh.

Chance: 5%

I don't see this happening, at least not in FP2. Yes, we got Sephiroth, so people will say that non-echo guests from already represented franchises are now on the table...........................but i don't see the same thing happening twice in a row.

People see the brand new character and think all the next ones are gonna follow the same trend. It's a similar thing i was guilty of when i rated Bandanna Dee and Dixie after Min-Min's reveal, thinking Nintendo reps were back on the table and use their own characters due to how costly Figher Pass 1' licensing was for their fighters................i was wrong..........so wrong. In Hindsight i grossly overrated both of them, and likely neither of them are gonna get in now..............sad.

But anyway, back to E.G.G.M.A.N. While Eggman is the most popular, beloved and well known gaming villain next to the ones already in Smash's roster, i don't think Sephiroth's inclusion bodes too well for the Eggy guy. Yeah he opened the floodgates, but he put a lot of emphasis on him being a video game baddy, having a mode and putting emphasis on his moveset feeling like a playable boss, having a mode where you fight him, making to me clear that Sakurai put this as Sephiroth's "gimmick". The Final Boss character as playable, something that Eggman could easily have filled too...........but is now done by Sephiroth. I kinda makes me thing that Sakurai would not want to repeat this idea, not with limited spots this Figher Pass has anyway. No im not saying having Sephiroth in Smash disqualifies Eggman, but it's something to think about.

Yes we had K.Rool and Ridley in Smash almost back to back in the base game, but those characters were staples of fan requests by the "Smash Bubble" vocal supporters who put these 2 as champions that should be in Smash, and the fact that these 2 villains got in the same game was a happy accident by chance. I don't see lighting striking twice for DLC........or......four times in this case. Plus they dind't have any major gimmicks (outside of K.Rool's THICC armor i guess) since Smash Ultimate's base newcomers were far more vanilla in comparison.

Also regarding Sephiroth, one could argue there was a smoking gun. Final Fantasy had little to no representation in the base game, and felt like only the minimal was done. Now that we know Steve took YEARS to make it in and negotiations took time, it's pretty clear to me that FF7 content was held back for Sephiroth's Pack.

Using this knowledge, it makes me HEAVILY doubt that Dr Eggman was even considered. Sonic in Smash Ultimate is well represented all things considered. It has 2 stages, a rarity for Third Party series with only FF7 also claiming that achievement, it has also 2 Assist Trophies tied with Mega Man, it has spirits for most of the main cast of the franchise including Team Sonic, Team Rose, Team Dark, Team Chaotix, and Eggman himself. I mean yeah there's a **** ton of Sonic characters for more spirit material (Blaze, Mighty, Bean, Fang, etc) but its not like we lack the essentials or anything. The only place where the Sonic series feels lacking is in Music, and that is mostly to Copyright concerns (Brad Buxer, Dreams Come True, the list goes on) and i don't see them adding Dr. Ivo Robotnik in Smash just to fill more music.

Yes the character is iconic no doubt, but being iconic doesn't always mean Smash fighter. Toad is one of the most iconic Nintendo characters not playable in Smash yet, and this is the same man who gave a moveset to a ****ing Plant so i feel any excuse. Sakurai said it himself: "it's more important that a character is fun to play, not just recognizable" Eggman could definetly be fun, but so could anyone he desires to put into Smash, and he has shown that he has no problem having more niche characters on the roster from time to time.

Speaking of that, regarding competition from Sega's other reps: i could see Sakura Shinguji sneaking in as a Dark Horse rep. While i see her as absurdly unlikely, i also see Eggman in that same position, and going into Devil's Advocate for a second, maybe Sega wants to add a character that appeals more to Japanese audiences, as Sonic is strictly more of an american appeal character. I could say the same for Yakuza and Puyo Puyo, but Yakuza has seemingly been disqualified by an interview from his own creator, and i think something similar happened with Arle Nadja.

or maybe SEGA doesn't get anything new and we get a new company into the fray. I mean we got SNK in FP1, so who's to say that's not happening again?

Want: 10%

I have another unpopular opinion, i don't usually like the idea of Third Party series having multiple reps. As someone who still firmly believes that Smash should be Nintendo focused (im willing to die on this hill) this idea is something i don't really like. It's sad for me to see the likes of Zelda never getting another newcomer that is unique (i didn't use to care for this fabled "Zelda Rep", but after playing Hyrule Warriors............god i changed my mind) or mutliple NIntendo franchises getting shafted while the likes of third party franchises grow more and more.

On the other hand, if you firmly believe in the "SMSH ias about GAIMING HistoTRY NOW!!!111", then if i had that mentality, i would personally find it lame that they double dipped on a franchise when they could have easily have brought another one into the spotlight. It's this awkward middle ground that for me doesn't work either way.

(There are exception to this for me, such as Echo Fighters due to them not taking too much time and resources, and Terra because FF6 holds a special place in my heart)

I mean it's not the end of the world if characters of this type get added to Smash, but those are easily the bottom of the barrel for me.

It's for this reason why i found Sephiroth lame. Instead of someone from a brand new universe like Adol or Ryu Hayabusa, we get another FF character, and not even a protagonist from another FF game (as each FF mainline game has their own unique cast, lore powers, basically each mainline FF game has their own little world) it's another FF7 character, as if Square doesn't shill FF7 enough and it pisses me off. But even then, i could see his appeal if only because he gave FF7 actual content in Smash, as in...............you know, stuff in the game, music, spirits and all.

I can't say the same for Eggman, whose franchise is already well represented in Smash outside of Music, and i don't think it's worth to add another character to add more music to a franchise already in Smash (i firmly believe FF7's music and Spirits in FP2 should have been in the base game with Sephiroth as an AT instead of a DLC fighter) I enjoy the character and could see myself playing as him, it's not on my big priority list. I would rather see Nintendo characters and franchises expand first, or give both unrepresented First AND Third Party franchises a playable character.

If people are really upset about Sonic's music selection, just start selling Music Packs, i mean it worked for Dragon Ball FighterZ.

Cammy is Better

Chance: 10%

If im being honest, almost all of what i said about Eggman applies here. Sephiroth did break a barrier, but likely did not send a trend. FP2 so far has been far more unpredictable compared to 1 in terms of ideas. All of FP1's choices were brand new universes that were not present in Smash and were third parties, the only exception was Byleth from FE3H, but even then we got a FE DLC char in Smash 4 so it wasn't unprecedented, plus all of Byleth's content came from Three Houses which had no content in the base game, so it was still brand new to Smash in some manners. Between Min Min, Steve and Sephiroth, i really can't tell which direction this Pass is gonna go. Yes, we got Min Min and Seph, both characters from franchises already in the base game of Ultimate just like Chun Li would be, but those 2 had little to no content so there was room for extra stuff. The same can't be said for Street Fighter.

In fact, if we take into account the whole Steve 5 year thing, and the suspicious absence of FF7 content before Seph's release (not im not saying Seph took 5 years to negotiate, im just saying the talks about him were likely even before the base game was even released) then this might as well kill the chances of Chun Li in my eyes, because unlike FF7, Street Fighter got a HUGE boost in content, it got a brand new character in the form of Ken (who is more different from Ryu than Dr Mario is to Mario, despite being labeled an Echo Fighter) it got an Assist Trophy with Guile with his memetic theme remixed, and while there's few remixes (at least it got remixes, unlike Sonic) most of the SF2 cast got their theme songs in the game, including Chun Li, and appeared as Spirits, INLCUDING Chun Li.

To me, it seems hypocritical to me that poeple downplay and dissmiss the likes of Bandanna Dee, Dixie Kong, and Waluigi by Saying "DUH THEWYR FRENCHISES ARE ALREDY REPRESENTED IN SMESH, WHAT R THEI GON A DO, PUT LEFTOVER CONTENT?!" and then unironically put Chun Li as a likely candidate despite SF being filled to the brim with content, it even had its OWN GODDAMN WORLD OF LIGHT MAP. Honestly Chun Li feels more like a character that would end up as Individual DLC like Plant, since the only thing she seems to provide would be herself. It's not that Chun Li can't bring more content, both she and Eggman can, but it's not like their franchises are starving either.

Another point of contention is that she would not likely have a gimmick that is unique to herself. She doesn't NEED to have a gimmick, but almost every FP character so far has brought their own unique abilities to the table. Arsene for Joker, Hero's unique Magic Command, Terry's desperation attacks, Sephiroth's Winged Mechanic, Steve's Crafting tools, and Min Min's ARMS mechanic. The only ones that don't bring gimmicks to speak off are Banjo and Byelth, and they seem to be exceptions to the Norm. What would Chun Li bring outisde of what Ryu and Ken already have with their Button mechanics and Command Inputs? Wall Jumping? Already a common thing in Smash (unless they want her to Jump from the corner of the screen which i can't see working seeing how much the camera in Smash moves) Supers? Kind of already done with Terry. She would feel like a very vanilla character to be added, which is something the Fighter Passes have consistently avoided for the most part

The reason i put her as more likely than Robotnik, is because of 2 reasons:

1-She is an iconic character on her own right, there's no disputing that. Chun LI is seen by manywith Samus and Lara Croft as the most iconic Female Gaming heroines, and while i don't think Sakurai is interesed in diversity quotas, she is iconic up to the point that she is a reconizable character in general, period.

2-The supposed rumors and "leaks" going around.

But as shown before, not only leaks can end up as a buncha bull, but sometimes iconic characters may not make it despite how iconic it is, so im not holding my breath.

Plus unlike Eggman, she faces far more competition. Dante and Phoenix Wright, while nowhere as recognizable to the average joe as Chun Li, have far more vocal fanbases when it comes to being requested for Smash, with Phoenix Wright being requested since the days of Smash 4, and Dante gaining steam over the course of Ultimate's announcement, release, and DLC timeline. The same can't be said for Chun Li, who as iconic as she is, she's been barely requested in Smash at all

While it's clear the "Smash Bubble" choices don't dominate DLC at all as shown with Joker, Terry, Sephiroth and Byleth have shown, it should not be underestimated that we could get a character that could appeal to that crowd, as Banjo got in Smash, a character who only got in thanks to the passionate and vocal support of his fanbase, and if Banjo can get in Smash thanks to that over the likes of Super Iconic characters like Master Chief and Lara Croft and so on, then i can easily see the same happening with Dante or Pheonix Wright, especially becasue both of them managed to stay relevant in the general gaming landscape far longer than Banjo who basically died out in 2008 (and was only revived thanks to a tweet) both also could offer far more in temrs of content alone, and as shown with Castlevania, Sakurai enjoys representing the franchises as much as the characters.

If im honest while i see her being a Dark Horse, im not sure why people see her as likely, i think people let Seph's reveal Cloud (heh) their judgement and gave them tunnel vision.

The only other reason i can think of, is that in a similar manner as to how Sephiroth follows Cloud everywhere he goes (KH, Dissidia, and now Smash) Chun LI appears in every Capcom Crossover alongside Ryu (except from Smash 4) but even then, Chun Li already appears as a Spirit, so it's not like she's missing this time. Yes, Spirit Promotions are possible as shown by Min Min, but it's telling the only Spirit Promotion so far in Smash comes from a franchise that did't have a playable fighter, in a similar manner as to how the first double dip for a third party franchise came from the ONE franchise that basically lacked any maningful content in the base game.

Want: 0%

Yeah, no thanks. When it comes to Capcom, i would rather see Sir Arthur first. as i said earlier with Egg, characters of these type don't interest me, but at least i like Eggman. I don't really care for Chun Li in general as a character. I mean she's not bad, but even as someone who casually played SF when i was younger, i almost never played as her, being far more interesed in the shotos due to my basic ***** mentality, or the niche obscure characters like Q.

All in All, this is another character i could not even care less about even if i tried

 

[Garteam]

Jackie Chan in the hit 1993 action movie City Hunter
Chance: 3%
Sorry, Chun-Li, but I just don't see you happening.

Obviously, the reason Chun-Li's been in the spotlight has to do with the recent 2chan leak that claimed Chun-Li was allegedly considered for the base roster, but was passed over in favour of Ken. This, combined with the fact that all three characters in Fighter's Pass 2 were considered for the base game and the fact that the speculation community is pretty fixated on the idea of another third-party series getting a second character after Sephiroth's inclusion, many have started to hold up Chun-Li as a forerunner for one of the final three fighter slots.

However, I don't really buy this argument. The main reason people have eyes on this leak is that it claimed that Erdrick, the Luminary, Steve were intended for the base game, while Sephiroth was heavily considered for the base game before we knew any of this to be true. However, I think it's worth noting this isn't as prophetic as it seems on the surface. For starters, Vergeben had been relatively vocal about Erdrick and some form of Minecraft content during the base game's speculation, which led many to assume this was true information given Vergeben's outstanding track record during base game speculation. As such, the idea of Erdrick and Steve as cut base game characters is far from an original one. Likewise, the Luminary and Sephiroth were already in the public spotlight thanks to the Seven Squares leak. Given that all of the other Seven Squares candidates are discussed in the leak with the exception of Slime, who would presumably be off the table if Erdrick and the Luminary were the Dragon Quest characters, it's relatively likely that the leak's writer knew about Seven Squares and sought to address it to give it some legitimacy, getting lucky by claiming that the Luminary and Sephiroth were the other characters considered.

Similarly, there are two characteristics of this leak that basically confirm it as fake to me. First, the leak's writer is incredibly knowledgable about Sakurai's thought process, making claims like Lloyd and Yuri were both in the planning stages of Ultimate and Square were the ones to prioritize Erdrick over Sephiroth. This is an immediate red flag, as leakers are typically low-level employees who wouldn't have this much insight into the decision-making process. The suits making these top-level decisions are not going to risk their careers and enter a legal battle with multiple megacorps to earn internet points on an anonymous message board. A lot of fake leakers fail to consider this and end up including this degree of detail anyway.

Second, the leak's claim that Chun-Li, presumably a unique fighter, was replaced by Ken, an echo bordering semi-clone, is incredibly suspect. Sakurai is incredibly meticulous in attempting to maximize his development time. This is a man who prides himself on making a detailed project plan to ensure he can accomplish as much as possible from start to finish. Likewise, as anyone who has looked into the development history of Melee or Smash for Wii U/3DS knows, clones take far fewer resources to get off the ground. As such, this labour difference means it was basically impossible for Ken to replace Chun-Li's resources unless there was some extra content that came with Ken (which is unmentioned in the leak). As such, this ignorance in Sakurai's design philosophy not only detracts from the leak's overall credibility but makes it even more doubtful that the leaker is high enough in the corporate food chain to know when considered characters are getting replaced.

That being said, even without a leak, Chun-Li could still definitely get in. Much like how Sakurai praised Sephiroth for being gaming's biggest villain after Bowser, I could see him gunning for Chun-Li as gaming's leading lady after Peach. Nonetheless, she's owned by a company with arguably the internal fiercest competition for a spot in Smash. In particular, Monster Hunter is incredibly popular, unique, and has an upcoming timed exclusive with Nintendo next year. There's also the likes of Dante and Phoenix Wright, both of whom could realistically be Capcom's guy, given the recent revivals their series have seen. Alternatively, there's a reasonable chance we don't get any new Capcom characters in Ultimate's DLC, especially with there only being 3 remaining fighter's packs left.

I think Chun-Li's death sentence lies in a factor that has been neglected in this debate: Min Min. Now, I'm not going to say Chun-Li and Min Min can't co-exist in Smash, that'd be ridiculous. However, the issue lies in the motifs within Min Min's implementation. Occasionally, Sakurai will make creative choices when adding characters into Smash that allude to other characters in gaming or pop culture. For example, the fact that Duck Hunt is a team of a bird riding a mammal seems to be an overt nod to Banjo and Kazooie. Likewise, the fact that Min Min has kicks as a core tenant of her Smash moveset, even though she performed only a kick when back-dashing or air-dashing in ARMS, feels like a conscious attempt to make her closer to Chun-Li. In particular, her rapid jab is extremely similar to the Hyakuretsukyaku, Chun-Li's most famous move and arguably the most famous move in Street Fighter that doesn't belong to a shoto. I can definitely see where Sakurai was coming from in making this choice. If you're going to add female, Chinese martial artist to your fighting game, why not model her after the female, Chinese martial artist that was propelled into becoming one of gaming's biggest icons?

But therein lies the problem. If you're getting the real deal, why spend time making another character into a homage to their presence? Not only does it decrease the overall diversity among characters within Fighter's Pass 2, it feels like you're setting up your opening act to fail. It's kind of like if Duck Hunt and Banjo and Kazooie were to be added in a single wave of characters, why would you go out of your way to structure the former to follow the latter when the latter is coming anyways? It's this issue that makes me relatively confident in not seeing Chun-Li in the immediate future.

Want: 65%
Admittedly, I was pretty harsh on the Fighting Games' First Lady in my write-up on her chances. While Chun-Li was never been my Street Fighter main (that honour goes to Cammy), it's hard to not appreciate what Chun-Li would bring. She's nothing short of a massive icon that would really add to the atmosphere of Smash. Plus, c'mon, Samus vs. Chun-Li? Hype as ****.

That being said, I'd rather see Capcom get another franchise in before Street Fighter gets their third time at bat. Likewise, while I definitely agree that Street Fighter's supporting representation is currently lopsided towards Street Fighter II, I think comparing it to what Final Fantasy had prior to Sephiroth is seems a little farfetched. It definitely sucks that nearly all of Street Fighter's music is ripped straight from Street Fighter II, but there's enough tracks and spirits there to not make me think "Oh thank god, we're getting more Street Fighter content" when seeing Chun-Li like with Sephiroth

Plus, it's simultaneously amusing yet annoying to see a handful of users who consistently preached that characters like Waluigi, Bandana Waddle Dee, and Shadow were ineligible for a Fighter's Pack because they wouldn't have an overarching theme behind their supporting content, only to see this rule immediately go out the window as soon as Chun-Li became a discussion point.

I'm going to abstain on Eggman for the time being. I didn't expect my write-up on Chun-Li to get this large and I'm pretty beat. Plus, I don't really have a ton to say on the guy that hasn't been brought up already. Maybe I'll come back to him if something new comes to mind.

 

[cashregister9]

Chances for both 30%

These characters both seem like characters that are only talked about and wanted now because Sephiroth and whatever the freshest leak is. But that is not to say that they are unlikely at all, both of these characters have their own merits.

Want:
Chun-Li: 35%

I quite like her and she is hella iconic but Street fighter already has a lot of content

Eggman: 40%

I like Eggman and Sonic could use some more varied content mostly in the Music and Stage categories and he is gosh dang Eggman but he is still not even close to one of my most wanted.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Eggman - He's got the master plan!
Chance: 15%
Honestly, for me, Sephiroth being here doesn't do much for his chances, be it good or bad. Whether Eggman would make it or not always hinged on himself proper as a character. And does he have the qualification? Well of course he does! As it's widely known, he is Sonic's main antagonist. Very rarely you'll see them separate, as most of the time, if you have Sonic, you have Eggman. And if you have Eggman, you have Sonic (unless your name is Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine). He's been there with Sonic since the very beginning, and he's the only long-running major character in the franchise to remain this way, of course, not counting minor enemies, hence why I mention major. Just from all this I could very well see Nintendo going for him if they want to get someone from SEGA. You could say sure, he has competition from Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, whoever else from the series, but I would say Eggman is the likeliest of them all-- especially since they all have some sort of role in the game (Eggman, at the moment is merely a spirit).

Now despite having all these bonuses, as with any character, he is not a guarantee. For one there's other SEGA franchises Nintendo could easily want to go for. Puyo Puyo, which is quickly becoming one of their staples on Nintendo, Yakuza, a very big series, even classic characters could happen. Second, as with any character, who's to say SEGA is one of the last picks? There's only three spots left, and chances dwindle for all characters. Eggman has good chances for him nonetheless, and it'd be a pretty reasonable pick for a second Sonic character, which in itself is a pretty known series overall.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah, I think I wrote for him here before but I still would like him just as much. I'd be really happy with a second Sonic character be it whoever, but I also happen to love Eggman as a villain. He has so many suits, armor and whatnot that it's pretty easy to get lost in how to make a moveset for him. Although I imagine they'd just use the classic Eggmobile or his mecha from SA2 as those are some of the more known ones. They could even mix them! I'm sure they'd be able to do good with the moveset.

Not to mention, I feel Sonic (as a series) has really little content in Smash at the moment, or at least, not varied. I'd love to have more, especially music and finally a stage that's not pretty much another Green Hill. Personally I feel Death Egg would be the perfect level for the doctor, but as a second choice I'd love Final Fortress from Heroes.

Chun-Li
Chance: 10%
Just gonna preface by saying that I'm not taking that "leak" that's been circulating around in mind, as well as that same as with Eggman, I don't think Sephiroth does much here. That being said... When it comes to Street Fighter crossovers, there's three characters that almost always are there, in this order: Ryu, Chun-Li, and Ken. It's safe to say that in case they went for another SF character, she'd have a good shot. Thing is here... would they? Well my answer is: maybe, but not all that likely. Chun-Li has her coast clear when it comes to SF characters. At most you have what, Akuma? Blanka? Dan? (Hah, imagine.) They aren't bad of course, but they pale in comparison to her, especially with how much Capcom likes to use her in crossovers. As mentioned, if Ryu and Ken are there, it's very likely Chun-Li also is. Be it in fighters like Marvel vs Capcom, big crossover games like Project X Zone, she's generally there, so she'd fit right in here in a big game crossover.

But outside of SF? That's gonna be tougher. Capcom just so happens to have a lot of beloved franchises, and I'm sure Nintendo is well aware. One that's very close to them is Ace Attorney, which has a strong Nintendo connection and could be a good pick from them for that angle. Another one is Devil May Cry, which has been setting itself on Nintendo lately, but the demographic is still largely spread. This could help get a few more people into Smash Bros. Monster Hunter is also big and has strong connections. Even Mega Man could get a repeat even if I don't find it all that likely. Chun-Li would be reasonable for another SF char, and a character in general, but I feel she's got a tough road to go through. As always though, who knows? If they did choose her, I'm sure they would because she's Chun-Li, not because it's a "third SF character".

Want: 50%
Sure, I get it, she's a big character and all and would be cool but I can't say I'd be ecstatic over her. I think she'd have a fun moveset as thus far I've really enjoyed the "fighting game" characters they've added. But that's really all I can say, don't get me wrong, I like Chun-Li, it's just in this case there's a lot of Capcom characters I'd prefer. Though a lot of them also aren't that likely-- if they were to get another fighting game character from Capcom I'd love for it to be Morrigan or Demitri from Darkstalkers, but yeah, unless they had their crossover aspect going I don't find them very likely. If anything, I think it would be cool if she brought content that's not from SF2, which given the stuff in the game at the moment, seems like it'd have to be a given with her inclusion. All in all I think she'd "make sense" given her status.


Those went for longer than I expected, lol. Well without further ado:

Nominations:
Worms x20
Marina Liteyears x10
Estelle Bright x10

Predictions:
Alucard: 4%
Raiden: 5%
Zero: 2%