Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

Though, Nintendo may not want a character from a series notorious for gratitious violence, crude sexual humor, among other things..

doesnt that apply to bayoneta?

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Carl "CJ" Johnson

Chance: 2% - CJ's in a difficult spot. His game was extremely iconic and probably the most influential GTA game of all time, even if V is the big kahuna now. The game has stood the test of time and is by far the most fondly remembered in the series. The GTA series isn't unknown in Japan either, and V's Famitsu score is telling. He's an icon, right? Though an icon with a TON of roadblocks. GTA's themes and violence make it infamous and Nintendo may want to keep it away from their family-friendly fighting game (though considering the **** that happens in Bayonetta's games, along with how gruesome some of these reveal trailers have been, who knows at this point). Let's nor forget that it is from Rockstar, a western developer, which automatically makes negotiations more difficult. Building on that, Rockstar and Nintendo don't currently have much of a relationship. Their last release on Nintendo systems was the Wii port of Bully, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Finally, there was the brilliant point Sari mentioned, being that CJ's voice actor recently trash-talked Rockstar and they might want to distance themselves as a result. This also plays into his inter-series competition, as he has competition with Trevor/Franklin/Michael from V, the other huge iconic GTA game, and a game who's online is still getting updates. Even inter-company competition isn't out of the question. They may go Red Dead instead.

CJ's definitely an icon, but has the misfortune of having so much working against him that his chances just aren't feasible.

Want: 30% - My friend and I have a lot of inside jokes about CJ and his game, and we've been joking about Big Smoke's massive order long before it became a meme. So I do have a bit of history with CJ and his series. For me it really all comes down to how they can implement CJ. Ability-wise he's pretty generic, which doesn't bode well for a creative moveset. Though they definitely could spice things up while still being faithful to GTA gameplay. Why not give him miniaturized versions of some of the vehicles he can drive for his special moves? We already have the groundwork for this with Wario's bike, why not take it a step further. It would give CJ both a niche and an interesting playstyle. If he were to have a moveset like this I think he'd be a super cool addition.


Nominations:
4x Strategy rep x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

Predictions:
Don-chan - 12.82% - Bandi Namco speculation has seen better days, but I can imagine some boosted confidence since we're on track for all of the Smash 4 Mii Costumes to come back. This knocks out Lloyd, which means the Bandai Namco titans are out of the way and it's a free-for-all with the rest of their series.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Vectorman pre-Carl Johnson

[Rerate] Monokuma x175
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x175
Qbby x160
[Rerate] Neku x154
John Marston x150
Worms x150
Crazy Dave x150

150 - 101

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x142
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x125
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x125
D.Va x115
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x110
Boss: Ender Dragon x108

100 - 51

Mii Costume: 2B x100
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x100
Stage: Bowser's Castle x96
Riptor x95
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x71
Concept: Among Us character x70
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Junpei (Zero Escape) x54

50 - 25

Echo (Bowser) x50
Tetra x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x35
Marina Liteyears x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25

Under 25

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x22
Regigigas x20
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x18
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Concept: Far Cry rep x10
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Neku twists past Crazy Dave, Worms, and John Marston, and ends the day in fourth place.

Marina Liteyears shakes out of the under 25 club.

Today's newcomers are a rerate of Eggman, with 5 noms, and concepts Far Cry rep and Curly as Quote's alt/Echo, each with 10.

Their last release on Nintendo systems was the Wii port of Bully, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

Well actually, there was GTA Chinatown Wars on the DS in 2009 and the port of LA Noire for Switch in 2017, so it hasn't been that long.

 

[Wunderwaft]

CJ
Chances: 10%
Not a good look, but it's not impossible. Everyone knows what GTA is, and San Andreas is often regarded as one of the most well received entries in the series and CJ is the most well liked protagonist of the series. Unfortunately that's where the positives end, because as cool as it would be, I don't see Nintendo choosing GTA for their big crossover.

Want: 90%
**** yeah I want him, he'd be cool as ****. GTA has it's own wacky side of things like jetpacks and spray paints. I think this would be a cool fighter to implement.


Nomination: Eggman x5
Prediction: Don Chan 14.5%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Well actually, there was GTA Chinatown Wars on the DS in 2009 and the port of LA Noire for Switch in 2017, so it hasn't been that long.

Fair point, thank you for correcting me! Though even then, releases on Nintendo systems are sparse and Nintendo and Rockstar don't really have a close relationship, so that doesn't really help CJ's case.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about GTA.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

All we had to do was follow the **** train

0% Chance

Yeah, I do not see Nintendo going to Rockstar. I know GTA is huge, but it is mainly huge in the west. I know V got a good famitsu score, but it still mainly does well in the west. GTA also has a flimsy relationship with Nintendo. Rockstar as a whole does to be honest. Once you get past the Game Boy Color (where they made a bunch of movie games), the number of notable releases shrinks to GTA GBA, Chiantown Wars, Bully, and LA Noire. I think this is due to probably the biggest hurdle Rockstar has to getting anything in Smash: The image of their games. Rockstar is known to make the big blockbuster games, impressive words, and a ton of controversy. LA Noire was the least controversial release that they had and even then there were controversies involved. I doubt Nintendo wants to touch the powder keg that is GTA. I know that other M Rated Franchises like Persona, Metal Gear, and Bayonetta got in Smash. But the thing is, those are easier to tone down than GTA. GTA is, as much as I hate to boil it down to this, a crime simulator. I do not think Nintendo wants to associate with that. Couple that with potentially less slots and you have something I doubt will happen.

0% Want

Yeah, I never was the biggest GTA fan. I will be honest, I hate the campaign mode. I just want to mess around but I do not want to have to do a boring, mediocre campaign in order to play around in the sandbox. GTA V is the one I have the best memories of because I played it at a friends house in High School...without having to unlock stuff. I have no strong desire to see CJ or any GTA character. I fail to see how they would interest me gameplay wise, which sometimes saves some characters. I just really do not dig this.

Neku x 10

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain
Nominations: Peppino x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ah ****, here we go again

Chance: 2%
Rockstar is a Western developer that doesn't put many of its games on Nintendo consoles. GTA itself only has, like, GTA 1, 2, Advance and Chinatown Wars. San Andreas, CJ's game, is not on any Nintendo platform despite being from ****ing 2004. So it's safe to say that the interest might not be there from all parties involved. Then again, GTA is also one of the best selling videogame franchises of all time, and GTA V is the single most profitable entertainment product in history (!!!). Those are big accolades. And after Minecraft I won't dismiss the possibility that they are looking at exactly that: the big guys.

As for CJ himself, he's the guy you choose when you can only choose one GTA protagonist. Some have mentioned that since V is the big dog nowadays they could represent it instead, but here's the thing: GTA V has three protagonists with equal importance. If you rep it you need to have all three, and at that point you might as well also have CJ (and Niko and Claude - not Tommy because Ray Liotta is expensive). The one obstacle might be that, as has been mentioned by others, CJ's VA, Young Maylay, is not on the best terms with Rockstar (something weirdly common for them as Niko's VA also had a falling out with them). It's not insurmountable, as he could be recast or just reuse clips from San Andreas, but there you go.

Want: 90%
San Andreas is a classic. Its open world feels truly like a whole state, packed with the right combination of scale and detail so that you can get lost but always find something interesting. Its story deftly mixes the mood and atmosphere of classic 90s hood movies with a ripped from the headlines tale of police brutality that is sadly very relevant today. And CJ himself is easily the most charming and easy to like protagonist in the franchise, making him a good fit as the resident criminal in Smash's family friendly repertoire. You can't talk gaming history without talking GTA, so I think it's about time that it gets its representation.

Noms: Marina x10
Don-chan prediction: I think this little guy will surprise tomorrow. 19.82%

 

[DaUsername]

R1 R2 L1 X Left Down Right Up Left Down Right Up
Chance: 0.01%
GTA is huge, like really huge. I don't think that will be enough to get it into Smash, though. Mainly because of the fact that there hasn't been a GTA on a Nintendo system in a decade. Also the fact that GTA is just...GTA, I know we already have a few M-rated characters in Smash but GTA is on another level compared to those.
Want: 95%
GTA San Andreas is one of my favorite games if all time. If CJ were to somehow make it into Smash, that would be really, really cool. Unfotunately, it'll never happen.

Don prediction: 11%
Noms: Peppino x5

 

[Flyboy]

CJ! HELP ME!
Chance: 0%
I never like to give 0 chance ratings, but in this case I kinda have to. Rockstar isn't exactly playing super nice with Nintendo right now, though they did give them LA Noire and Bully at various points, and GTA in general is a heavily Western-centric series. That isn't to say it's unpopular in Japan or anything, as seen by GTAV's Famitsu score, but the fact that GTA SA never got a port of the HD iOS version to....anything, even Switch, and that GTA has been spotty on Nintendo consoles, and that even if GTA SA is still iconic and beloved (and by some considered the best in the series), it just doesn't seem in the cards at all. Combine that with the apparent issues hypothesized by Japanese players regarding games with a CERO Z rating, and you have someone who has no real chance.

Want: 75%
So, I was never a big GTA person growing up... My friends played it, but I wasn't allowed to play M-rated games and for some reason that really stuck with me specifically when it came to GTA. I Could Not Play It. But something about SA always interested me, so I read about missions in magazines, and then later as I grew older I learned more about each character and especially CJ and Big Smoke, and then the memes hit and I loved them. I finally got a taste of actually playing San Andreas after a while, and to this day it's the only GTA game I've really enjoyed or had any interest in. CJ is a cool, interesting character, I love the story of Grove Street, and even if his moveset would likely just be gun-and-car shenanigans, I just think he's cool enough on his own that adding him to Smash would be a fun way to expand the crossover. Plus the fanart of Big Smoke and Kirby hanging out (Or Big Smoke and Wario) draws itself.

Nominations: Marina Liteyears x10 (How is someone who isn't me nominating her? Let's goooo)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

CJ! HELP ME!
Chance: 0%
I never like to give 0 chance ratings, but in this case I kinda have to. Rockstar isn't exactly playing super nice with Nintendo right now, though they did give them LA Noire and Bully at various points, and GTA in general is a heavily Western-centric series. That isn't to say it's unpopular in Japan or anything, as seen by GTAV's Famitsu score, but the fact that GTA SA never got a port of the HD iOS version to....anything, even Switch, and that GTA has been spotty on Nintendo consoles, and that even if GTA SA is still iconic and beloved (and by some considered the best in the series), it just doesn't seem in the cards at all. Combine that with the apparent issues hypothesized by Japanese players regarding games with a CERO Z rating, and you have someone who has no real chance.

Want: 75%
So, I was never a big GTA person growing up... My friends played it, but I wasn't allowed to play M-rated games and for some reason that really stuck with me specifically when it came to GTA. I Could Not Play It. But something about SA always interested me, so I read about missions in magazines, and then later as I grew older I learned more about each character and especially CJ and Big Smoke, and then the memes hit and I loved them. I finally got a taste of actually playing San Andreas after a while, and to this day it's the only GTA game I've really enjoyed or had any interest in. CJ is a cool, interesting character, I love the story of Grove Street, and even if his moveset would likely just be gun-and-car shenanigans, I just think he's cool enough on his own that adding him to Smash would be a fun way to expand the crossover. Plus the fanart of Big Smoke and Kirby hanging out (Or Big Smoke and Wario) draws itself.

Nominations: Marina Liteyears x5 (How is someone who isn't me nominating her? Let's goooo)

Actually, because of the big wall of text, you qualify for 10 noms, thought you'd like that.



Also, question, do we rate Don-chan next or do we predict what we'll see in Sephiroth's presentation next? I've already written up a draft for Don-chan and I'd like to know if I need to save it or if it's safe to keep in my drafts

 

[warpenguin55]

CJ
Chance: 0%
I really have I hard time seeing this one happen. GTA is a pretty controversial series, and while Nintendo doesn't seem to mind controversy right now

Want: 0%
I've never really been interested in GTA. Doesn't seem like the kind of game I'd be into.

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Don-chan from Taiko no Tatsujin.

This day will last until the Sephiroth prediction, after which we will do Sephiroth satisfaction ratings. Nothing to predict for today.

Megadoomer

-----

Some music for today's rhythm themed character

Spoiler: Taiko no Tatsujin Music

-----

Abstaining completely today since I'm not familiar with this character/series.

Nominations:
Concept: Curly Brace as Quote's alt/echo x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I'm not too familiar with the character or the series.

Noms
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Kamen Rider Ex-Aid


Chance: 1% Taiko no Tatsujin is pretty niche from what I can tell, though that's not the biggest issue Don-chan faces. That issue being Namco. Not only is there a ****ton of competition from franchises like Tekken, Tales, Dark Souls, Digimon, Soul Calibur and many more, but Namco also doesn't seem to care about getting another character if Sakurai's jokey remark about Pac-Man is any indication. I simply can't see Don-chan being prioritized over these other options due to the aforementioned choices, especially when Lloyd's arguably one of the biggest Smash requests still not in the game, even if it's crossed over with the likes of Kirby, Touhou, Kamen Rider, NieR Automata and more. I just don't see it personally.

Want: 30% I have never played Taiko no Tatsujin so I can't comment on overall content, but if you know me, you know I dislike the idea of timed hits in a fighting game as a gimmick. It sounds very unfun, especially when one takes online into consideration, it's already unfun when on bad wifi, imagine a character who requires more timing than most. Despite that, I think Don-chan is absolutely adorable, I've seen it on a Kamen Rider Ex-Aid special which admittedly warmed me up to the idea too because I am a toku simp. Here's footage of that very thing.

Also, yes, that was an evil Pac Man in a suit you saw


Velvet Crowe x10

 

[Lyncario]

Don-Chan

Chances: 0.5%

It's not non-existant, but it's not high either. He got the Taiko Drum Drum collections on the Switch (I'm on the fence on buying them, because rythme games aren't my things, but there's Touhou music in it, but there's also Touhou Spell Bubble if I want a rythm game with Touhou music, so I'm basicaly esitating a lot about it), so that makes him relevant and present on Nintendo systems, he in fact was on them for a while even if he's more known for his arcades in Japan. But the thing is, it's a Bandai Namco character, but not the biggest one by far, not the most requested, and other stuff. I jsut cannot see him getting over Heihachi, Lloyd, or Chosen Undead when it comes to Bandai Namco characters in Smash.

Want: 60%

Don-Chan is pretty cute, and he could have a fun rythm based moveset if it works better than how DK's old final Smash worked (that final Smash was so terrible, especialy in Brawl). I don't play rythm games too much because I'm very bad at them, though I do enjoy watching videos of them on YouTube. And also there's Touhou, Kirby, and Ace Attorney cameos in Taiko Drum Drum 3DS that also stayed for the Switch ports, so he gains addutionnal respect from me.

Nominations

LoL rerate x5

 

[BowserKing]

Don-Chan

Chance: 5%. Given that Namco owns him, I’m pretty sure if we do get a Namco Rep, it would be Lloyd or Heihachi (even if my heart wants Kloana or Prince of all Cosmos). But it would not be completely impossible for him to get in.

Want: 50%. While I prefer Kloana and Prince of all Cosmos as the second Namco Rep, he would be fun to play as. I can also see him fight Kirby and Pac-Man in a free for all. Overall, Don-Chan would be a decent Smash Bros Rep.

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Don-chan

Chance: 10% - Don-chan's got a decent shot! He certainly has the pedigree for it! He's super popular in Japan, in fact you can't go to an arcade without seeing a Taiko no Tatsujin cabinet. It's a major Namco franchise, even if it's niche in other countries. There's also the fact that his franchise is also well-known for its' crossovers. Usually via songs, but also guest appearances from other characters, such as Jibanyan (with other major characters from Yo-Kai Watch as dancers), Reimu, Marisa, and Sakuya (with other major Touhou characters as dancers). Kumamon, Phoenix Wright, Kirby, Inkling Squid, and even other Namco franchises like Idolm@ster and Tekken. Furthermore, Don-chan has appeared in plenty of crossovers himself! He makes a guest appearance in Yo-Kai Watch Fleshy Souls, appears as a minigame in Yakuza 5, is a playable racer in Mario Kart Arcade GP DX, complete with his own tracks, (yes, Don-chan in a MARIO KART game!) and many more! For some reason people claim that KOS-MOS is some kind of crossover queen for Namco, but where's the recognition of this adorable drum's prestige? Don-chan is the TRUE crossover king!

Further adding to his pedigree is his strong Nintendo history! He's had an entry on every Nintendo system, both handheld and console, since the DS! He's even gotten two recent Switch releases, with Drum n' Fun a couple of years ago and Rhythmic Adventure Pack (HD remasters of the two 3DS RPG games) just this month. Both Nintendo history, popularity in Japan, and recency are on his side! He's even got an appearance in Smash already, being the first modern Namco character to appear in Pac Man's Namco roulette last game! Even Nintendo's willing to advertise him in their directs, both Drum n' Fun and Rhythmic Adventure Pack receiving their own detailed segments! (and thus they fare WAY better than other Japan-oriented series like, say Atelier) What could be standing in our rhythmic little friend's way?

The first is the usual inter-company competition as is typical with Namco characters. Heihachi's out and Lloyd's on track to meet the same fate, but that ends up leading to a free-for-all with Namco's other characters. Prince of All Cosmos, Chosen Undead, Nightmare, Agumon, and many others compete for the same spot, so Don-chan's still got a mountain to climb. The other issue is the problem of localization. I know it's a bit unfair given most of his games are arcade cabinets (and it's more difficult to localize due to needing to convince arcade owners to make space for a big, expensive cabinet), but even then, most of his console entries were Japan-only. The first Taiko game to be localized was Taiko Drum Master on the PS2, and while I couldn't find any sales figures (and it got good reviews), it resulted in no more Taiko games being released in the West until Drum n' Fun on the Switch and Drum Session on the PS4, both in 2018. 14 years later. Granted, this could've been partially due to this being during the reign of Guitar Hero and Rock Band (and their various imitators), which, like Taiko no Tatsujin are rhythm games based around real instrument peripherals. So more than likely it got overshadowed. Though the fact that it remains niche nowadays (despite it selling pretty well, I usually see it in the best sellers section whenever I check the eShop) might put him below other Namco characters on Nintendo's radar. And that's if we even get a second Namco rep. Though the fact that there's a recent effort on part of Namco to start bringing Taiko no Tatsujin back to the west does soften this, and it did start happening before Fighter's Pass 2 was finalized.

Finally, there's the issue of fan demand. I haven't seen much fan demand for him compared to other Namco characters (though I don't know how much Smash demand he has in Japan), so while he'd be more appealing to westerners than, say, another anime-esque swordsman, his niche status in the west still isn't doing him any favors.

Overall, Don-chan's got a fantastic pedigree and has the merit needed for Smash, but inter-company competition and an overall lack of localization hold this adorable drum back.


Want: 70% - Anyone who knows me well knows me as a massive Prince of All Cosmos supporter, and thus Don-chan is big competition for Katamari. So why the high score? Well, it's a similar situation to last year around this time for me with Vault Boy and Dragonborn. The super fun newcomer vs. the beloved long time favorite. I started getting into Drum n' Fun back in September and I bought the Rhythmic Adventure Pack a couple of weeks ago, and have been having a great time with both! The series is super charming and I think this would result in both an extremely unique character (and we don't have a rhythm game character yet) and an extremely colorful flashy stage! And let's not forget the music! While Taiko is mostly known for sourcing songs from other media, there's still tons of Namco original songs in each game that it could easily fill up a setlist for Don-chan's stage. So while, if I were given the chance to choose the next Namco rep, it'd be Prince of All Cosmos in a heartbeat, if The Prince wasn't getting in then Don-chan would easily be my second choice!


Nominations:
4x Strategy rep x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

45

If you want my thoughts expressed in a very detailed and complete way, just read the post above mine. This is the CliffsNotes version of it.

Chance: 7%
Taiko no Tatsujin is a franchise that's teetering between obvious frontrunner and nigh impossible. As far as Namco franchises go, there's bigger ones, but those bigger ones are being taken out like teenagers in a slasher movie. And, to Don-chan's advantage, there's also smaller/unlikelier series and characters. As for genre, rhythm games are totally lacking in representation, and their pioneer is owned by Sony, so unless you think that Just Dance or Guitar Hero are in consideration, then Don's only competition is Rhythm Heaven (strong competition in my opinion! But surmountable). And in general, Taiko no Tatsujin is in that sweet spot where it's under the radar but totally plausible - an underdog you could say. It's seen lots of success, especially in Japan. And while said success and fame hasn't been replicated worldwide, it's still seen some recognition. I think a good number of gamers would probably recognize Don-chan even if they've never played one of his games, and that's where you want to be. I'd compare the franchise to the likes of Dragon Quest and Touhou, on a smaller scale. Simply put, this is a regional pick done right.

Oh and it's on Switch and showed up on Nintendo Directs. That probably accounts for something.

Want: 65%
I see him as competition with Rhythm Heaven, Lloyd, Katamari, all of which I'd rather get. But aside from that, I'd be okay with the little guy. He's cute.

Noms: Marina Liteyears x10

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Peppino x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rhythm Master
Chance: Abstaining, since I do not know thta much about the franchise

Want: 10%
Pretty cute! This little dude has some appeal but I would still greatly prefer a Rhythm Heaven character for the rhythm genre representative. The Prince also is still my most wanted when it comes to Namco.

Henry Stickmin x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Expect calcs to get done tonight. Should be easy because it's only 2 characters.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Carl Johnson pre-Don-chan

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x185
[Rerate] Monokuma x180
Qbby x165
[Rerate] Neku x164
John Marston x150
Worms x150
Crazy Dave x150

150 - 101

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x147
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x135
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x125
D.Va x115
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x115
Boss: Ender Dragon x108
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x105

100 - 51

Mii Costume: 2B x100
Stage: Bowser's Castle x96
Riptor x95
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: Among Us character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x71
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Echo (Bowser) x55
Junpei (Zero Escape) x54

50 - 25

Marina Liteyears x50
Tetra x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x35
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x32
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Concept: Far Cry rep x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x18
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Henry Stickmin x10
[Rerate] Eggman x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x5
Firebrand x1

Arle Nadja finally passes Monokuma to become queen of the noms list!

Velvet Crowe claws her way up to 100 noms.

Echo (Bowser) makes it past 50 noms.

Peppino and Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo rise past 25 noms.

Challengers approaching! It's Henry Stickmin, with 10 noms, and Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass with 5.

 

[fogbadge]

one of the few racers not to be in mario kart tour

chances: tricky but ill say 45%. don chan is a bit of a cultural icon in japan so thats something but hes still fairly new to the west so that could hurt him a bit. hes probably not the most likely of NB characters but hes far from the least likely. hes no stranger to crossovers, what with yo-kai watch and mario kart so him being in smash seems perfectly reasonable. i can believe nintendo would suggest him, of course im of the opinion that nintendo suggest multiple characters. so hes somewhere between a likely choice and a dark horse choice.

want: 80% ive only played one game but i kinda like him, even before then. he was part of my main team in yo-kai watch 2 and thats one of the reasons i love him. despite not getting into drum n fun too much i think hed be amazing to play in smash. as a living drum thats the sort of character that i love so thats an automatic plus. the type of things hed do in smash would be incredible. even if its just stuff from YW or MK.

nominate qbby x10

 

[Speed Weed]

Gonna try and do a writeup on this tomorrow if there's still time

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Don-Chan.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Super Music Bros. Ultimate

Chance: 25%

It's kind of hard for me to poinpoint a score for this adorable dude but I'm feeling confident in him. As other have mentioned, Taiko no Tatsujin has crossed over with a lot of stuff, with lots of songs from different games and anime being included in the series. While he is niche in foreign countries which hurts his chances, his series is very popular in Japan and combine that with Taiko no Tatsujin's strong Nintendo history, gives him an edge over several of Bamco's other series. My concern is of course, extremely stiff inner-company competition and Bamco sitting in the background while several third party companies are shining on the DLC stage. Overall, I do think Don-chan is a darkhorse pick. Not very likely, but definitely within the realm of reasonable plausibility.

Want: 65%

I just got into Drum n Fun! a couple months ago and I'm enjoying my time with it. While he is lower on my Bamco wishlist and rhythm games are not typically my thing, I would still be happy with Don-chan. He is super adorable and a moveset based around music and attacking based on beats sound really fun and charming. It's about time we get a rhythm rep and Don-chan would be a great way to represent the genre.

Did I mention he is uber cute? I want to hug him.

Noms: Among Us character x10

 

[warpenguin55]

abstain

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Don Chan(not at all what I was expecting when I googled this)

Chance 2 - Don't see this happening at all. First issue is that his relevance outside of Japan is pretty low. That's held characters back in the past. There's also the fact that's he's a Namco rep. Namco doesn't seem to be very interested in adding their own characters to the game for whatever reason. However, Don Chan is pretty popular in Japan and the series has been pretty successful and long running so I suppose I could see why he would get picked even though I really, really don't expect it

Want 20 - Alright, the cute little.... whatever he is appears to have a good amount of moveset potential. A rhythm based moveset is something I'd really like to see get in Smash. I've heard some theories that they could make that type of moveset work with each song in the game but that seems like an impossible amount of work given that there's nearly 1000 in. Guess I would have said the same thing about Steve getting stages reworked though. Anyways, back to the topic at hand, I'm leaning towards not wanting Don Chan for 2 reasons. First, there's a number of other characters I'd rather get with his type of moveset, mainly Rillaboom or a Rhythm Heaven rep. There's also a number of Bandi Namco reps I want first, such as Lloyd, Agumon, Nightmare, and Heihachi. I'm also just kinda tired of extremely Japan and nobody else centric characters getting into Smash when there's so many good western picks left.

Noms:
Far Cry rep x10

 

[Champion of Hyrule]

Don Chan:

Chance: 15% I can see it happening given the popularity of the series.

Want: 5% It’s great to get new genres represented in smash, but seeing as how there are better rhythm game characters and Namco characters, Don chan ain’t much of a priority for me

Noms: Assassins Creed rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Vectorman
0.43% Chance - 21.67% Want
The winner of predictions is DanganZilla5 by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 0.80%
Vectorman earns the dubious honor of being the fourth least likely third-party.

Carl Johnson
2.94% Chance - 48.40% Want
The winner of predictions is Lyncario with 2.40%

Extra noms list

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 10
DanganZilla5 10
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 83
Icedragonadam 5
Inue Houji 20
Lyncario 5
Mr. MR 65
NintenRob 55
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 54
WeirdChillFever 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[fogbadge]

Alright, the cute little.... whatever he is

taikio drum

 

[Lionfranky]

Don Chan

Chance: 7%

Although competition within Bandai Namco shrunk, there is still competition nonetheless. Tales, Soul Caliber and Digimon to name few. But waves of returning Mii costumes rather shows lack of will from both Bandi Namco and Nintendo. If Heihachi came back as Mii, I can hardly see Don Chan making in. Even if Lloyd costume comes back, that rather tells lack of enthusiasm to put any rep.

Want: 60%

I think Don Chan would be fun addition. We can definitely use rythm game rep. I think he can represents the genre the best. I can see his rythm beats popping up on screen as various fun gimmick. His design is unique and cute. I kinda dig him. I also enjoyed Taiko no Tatsujin in arcade room before pandemic hit. I could never challenge more difficult setting. But my most wanted character from Bandai Namco remains Agumon. Sorry little fellas.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[Ridrool64]

How do you make a drum sound totally cool? Sell it and buy a guitar! - Mr. Bones

Chance: 20%. There is hope for the little drumming dude, but right now I don't have faith in any Bandai Namco characters because... well, it feels like it's not gonna happen. Heihachi and Gil both got axed, Lloyd is on track to be next, and that leaves us with only a few series in the form of Digimon, Dark Souls, Idolmasters, and of course, Taiko no Tatsujin as the big four. I honest to god believe that Don-Chan has no business getting in over Agumon, even though I am a fan of neither series. However past that, there is hope, as posts by others more knowledgeable than me on Tatsujin will show. And the fact that it was Taiko no Tatsujin included alongside Pac-Man in a Mario Kart game, tells me that Nintendo does consider this character acceptable around Mario which is always a plus.

The logistics of creating a Rhythm based moveset is tricky, but I don't think it's an insurmountable obstacle, like I do with Aiai and the ball. But there's nothing that immediately sticks out about the character that doesn't let me think a Headgear costume would be enough.

Want: I'll give a rating here for the noms sake, 30%. While I've actually seen his game in action and can get an understanding on how they play by default, Don-Chan has little that excites me. I have another Bandai-Namco character I'd rather have, another rhythm game character I'd rather have (even though PaRappa is not happening in a million billion years), another character who has blue and orange in their design I'd rather have... plus, with only three slots remaining before the presumed end of Smash Ultimate, I'm gonna start being real selective of my picks.

Arle x 5/10, whichever I qualify for. No predictions because of the unique circumstances.

 

[Inue Houji]

Don-chan
Chance: Abstain
Not in the mood to research atm.

Want: 30%
I want him partially because he would be unexpected and unique, but mainly for the music he would bring with him. The original soundtrack is great, though I would want him even more if he brought with him some licensed rhythm game tracks and artists. That's not likely though.

Nominations
Beat x5

 

[Mr. MR]

Don-Chan

Chance: 1%
Not a highly requested character but he has had crossovers with Mario before in one of the arcade Mario Kart games. He's also already in Smash Bros Ultimate as part of Pac-Mac's Namco Roulette taunt. Also he's definitely a crossover heavy character in his own series - like with Kirby for example. I don't think he has much of a chance because Namco has plenty of other characters that would be a better fit as a fighter than Don-Chan among other reasons. Even though I usually hold crossovers in high regard, I think his crossovers are a bit too minor.

Want: Abstain
Never played a Taiko game.

Noms: 2B Mii x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I was under the impression we'd give predictions and we're only half an hour away so I'm posting this write-up anyway, sorry if it's not seen as relevant


MI FILI VENI VENI VENI MI FILI

I expect Sephiroth to look absolutely amazing for starters, with Nothern Crater being shown off in detail about the fights the layouts took place in, those being Jenova, Bizarro and Safer Sephiroth. No stage cameos though, just the Highwind. As for music, a disappointingly low amount, but still a good what, 6 songs? I also predict we'll see the Spirits, 3 of them being the core party everyone knows and loves while maybe a few more party members and bosses getting spirits too. As for Mii costumes, I see Tifa, Aerith, Barret, Chocobo and Geno happening with maaaybe another new one. Also, I expect Supernova to be the international version but shorter, at most showing the meteor hit the sun before engulfing the fighters trapped in the cinematic.

 

[fogbadge]

I was under the impression we'd give predictions and we're only half an hour away so I'm posting this write-up anyway, sorry if it's not seen as relevant


MI FILI VENI VENI VENI MI FILI

I expect Sephiroth to look absolutely amazing for starters, with Nothern Crater being shown off in detail about the fights the layouts took place in, those being Jenova, Bizarro and Safer Sephiroth. No stage cameos though, just the Highwind. As for music, a disappointingly low amount, but still a good what, 6 songs? I also predict we'll see the Spirits, 3 of them being the core party everyone knows and loves while maybe a few more party members and bosses getting spirits too. As for Mii costumes, I see Tifa, Aerith, Barret, Chocobo and Geno happening with maaaybe another new one. Also, I expect Supernova to be the international version but shorter, at most showing the meteor hit the sun before engulfing the fighters trapped in the cinematic.

err were rating don chan

 

[Mr. MR]

I'll just put my presentation prediction here anyway...

Sephiroth Presentation Predictions:

Mii Costumes: Geno - Deluxe Gunner with Music Track, Chocobo Hat, 2B - Sword Fighter, Tifa - Brawler, Other FF7 characters
If it's anything like Hero, we will only be getting Squeenix Mii Costumes.

Other than that I don't know what else to expect except Sakurai showing off Spehiroth and talk about his history a little bit and explain why he's in the game.

I also expect much more FF music

 

[Cutie Gwen]

err were rating don chan

I know, I already posted my rating, but Sari said we'd predict stuff so I already started typing it up and thought it'd be a waste to not end up posting at all